BUSINESS ANALYSIS THESE ARE ONLY FORMULAS
Using the data below, what is the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the 4th week where α=0.4?
(.4)(T2)+(.6)(T1)= TOTAL (.4)(T3)+(.6)(TOTAL)= ANSWERS
Using the data below, Use the 2 period moving average to create the forecast calculate the absolute error for the 3rd week.
(A 1+A2)/2=TOTAL TOTAL-ACTUAL 3= ANSWER (ABSOLUTE VALUE)
Using the data below, what is the 2 period moving average forecast for the 3rd week?
(T1+T2)/2=AMSWER
Using the data below, what is the 3 period moving average forecast for the 4th week?
(T1+T2+T3)/3=ANSWERS
R2 can take value from?
0 to 1
The Monthly indexes for the first 11 months are: 1.25, 1.25, 1, 1, .75, .75, .7, .8, .8, 0.52,0.99. What is the index for the last month?
12 - (1.25 +1.25 +1 +1 + .75 +.75 +.7 +.8 +.8 + .52 +.99)
Interpret the line, Y=5X+6
5 is the Slope
What is regression analysis?
A statistical process for estimating the relationships among variables
If the actual sales are 2,596.00 units and the seasonal index for this period is 1.59, find the deseasonalized sales for this period?
ACTUAL SALES/SEASONAL INDEX 2,596/1.59
Interpret coefficient -6 from the regression equation: y = 100 - 6X where y is number of donuts sold and x is price. So on an average, if price increases by one dollar, the number of donuts sold:
Decreases by 6
The deseasonalized sales for this period when the actual sales are 1,156.00 units and the seasonal index for this period is 1.05?
FORMULA. DESEASONALIZED SALES= ACTUAL/SEASONAL INDEX 1,156/1.05 =ANSWERS
Which of the following is NOT a type of Qualitative forecasting?
Heuristic
When we have many independent variables which we use to predict the dependent variable, we call this process as?
Multiple Regression
The formula of slope(M) in the equation Y=MX+B is?
Rise/Run
r^2=
SSR/SST
Based on the below data what will be the value of standard error?
STANDARD OF ERROR= SQRT(MSResidual)
Using the data below and the SES forecast α=0.3 , what is the error for the 3rd week?
STEP 1 . (T1)(.3)+(T2)(.7)=(TOTAL) STEP 2 . (T3)-(TOTAL)=ANSWER
Find the seasonalized forecast for Q2 of 2017.The sales trend has been modeled as: Sales = 234.00+ 2 * t , where t= time in quarters, beginning in Q1 2014. Seasonality for the four quarterly periods is given in the table below.
STEP 1 . 2(14)+234=262 STEP 2 . 262*Q2=ANSWER
The sales trend has been modeled as: Sales=3.00 * t + 118.00, where t = time in quarters, beginning in Q1 2015. Seasonality for the four quarterly periods is given in the table below. Find the seasonalized forecast for Q1 of 2017.
STEP 1 . 3*9+118=145 STEP 2 . 145*Q1=ANSWERS
Using the data below, what is the value of RMSE?
STEP 1 . FIND THE DEVIATION STEP 2 . SQRT(1/4(D1)^2+(D2)^2+(D3)^2+(D4)^2) STEP 3 . SQRT(1/4(D1+D2+D3)=ANSWER
Using the data below, what is the value of MAD?
STEP 1 . FIND THE DEVIATION (SUBTRACTING TSV-FORECAST) T STEP 2 . THEN DIVIDE BY 4 FORMULA. DEVIATION/4=ANSWER
Based on the above chart and assuming that without seasonality each quarter will have equal demand: The Seasonal Index for QT1 is
STEP 1 . GET AVERAGE STEP 2 . THEN DIVIDE QT1/AVERAGE ADD ALL OF AQS/4 QT1/AVERAGE
Based on the above chart and assuming that without seasonality each quarter will have equal demand: The Seasonal Index for QT3 is
STEP 1 . GET AVERAGE STEP 2 . THEN DIVIDE QT3/AVERAGE ADD ALL OF AQS/4 QT3/AVERAGE
Using the data below, what is the weighted moving average forecast for the 4th week? The weights are .20, .30, .50 (oldest period to most recent period)
T1(.2)+T2(.30)+T3(.5)= ANSWERS
Using the data below and the Naïve forecast, what is the error calculation for the 3rd week?
T3-T2=ANSWERS (CAN BE NEGATIVE)
Based on the below data what is the regression equation?
Y=M(X)+B -2 + 21X INTERCEPT=(B) ADVERTISING (THOUSANDS OF $)= (M)
A bias of -10 means
You are over forecasting
