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Terrell volunteers his time to campaign for Joel Goodman. He spent all afternoon putting up "Goodman for Congress" signs around his town and arrived back at headquarters just in time to watch the Goodman- Hernandez debate on TV. Terrell was eager to watch the candidates debate each other, even though he was 100 percent sure he was going to vote for Goodman. Terrell's first response to the debate will most likely be

"Goodman answered the question on job creation very well."

Observation: Here in Nashville, the sun has risen every morning. Conclusion: The sun is going to rise in Nashville tomorrow.

The argument is strong because there are a large number of observations.

Premise 1: All dogs are cats. Premise 2: All cats say "meow." Conclusion: Therefore, all dogs say "meow." Which statement below describes this syllogism?

The conclusion is valid

"You can't have any pudding unless you eat your meat," says a man to his son at the dinner table. This is an example of

a permission schema

Mia has lived in New York City all her life. She has noticed that people from upper Manhattan walk really fast, but people from lower Manhattan tend to walk slowly. Mia's observations are likely influenced from a judgment error based on her using

an illusory correlation

Tuan bought a new leather jacket after saving for many months for the luxury purchase. On the first day he went out wearing the new garment, he found a $50 bill on the sidewalk outside of his office. He now refers to the jacket as his "lucky jacket" and believes that it has some magical power to give him good fortune. Tuan's belief in the jacket's cosmic ability is an example of

an illusory correlation

The finding that people tend to incorrectly conclude that more people die from tornados than from asthma has been explained in terms of the

availability heuristic.

Given its definition, expected utility theory is most applicable to deciding whether to

buy first-class or coach tickets for a spring break trip.

Josiah is trying to decide whether to take a new job in a new city. He is worried that if he takes the job and fails, he will suffer from intense anxiety and depression. This is an example of

expected emotion.

Ling is sure that if her boyfriend proposes, she will feel elation. This is an example of an

expected emotion.

Making probable conclusions based on evidence involves_________________reasoning

inductive

Bonnie has ordered her monthly supply of medicines through the mail for the past five years. Except for one order, all orders have arrived within two business days. Bonnie placed an order yesterday, and she expects to receive her order tomorrow. Bonnie is using

inductive reasoning

Utility refers to

outcomes that achieve a person's goals

A syllogism is valid if

the conclusion follows logically from the two premises

Stereotypes are reinforced by all of the following EXCEPT

the falsification principle

The conjunction rule states that

the probability of two events co-occurring is equal to or less than the probability of either event occurring alone.

Gabrielle is blonde, extremely attractive, and lives in an expensive condo. If we judge the probability of Gabrielle's being a model quite high because she resembles our stereotype of a model, we are using

the representativeness heuristic.

One hundred students are enrolled in State University's course on introductory physics for math and science majors. In the group, 60 students are math majors and 40 are science majors. Sarah is in the class. She got all As in her high school science courses, and she would like to be a chemist someday. She lives on campus. Her boyfriend is also in the class. There is a _________________ chance that Sarah is a science major.

40 percent

At a lunch meeting with a client, the CEO of Gossip Polls, Inc., was asked to determine America's favorite day of the week. Hundreds of Gossip employees across the U.S. started collecting data immediately, calling people at their residences. One hour later, the attitudes from 10,000 Americans, across all 50 states, were collected. A staff member called the CEO, still at her lunch meeting, to tell her the results of the poll: America's favorite day of the week is Monday. Given your text's discussion of inductive reasoning in science, we might suspect that the observations in this poll are not representative because

the people who are home to answer the phone in the early afternoon are not an appropriate cross-section of the U.S. population

People tend to overestimate

what negative feelings will occur following a decision more so than positive feelings