Chapter 1

The number of births per woman effect on population growth

(1) if women average 1.6 children, world population drops to 3.6 billion (2) if women average 2 children, population grows to 10.8 billion (3) if women average 2.6 children, population grows to 27 billion. --The difference between a world population of 3.6 billion or 27 billion rests on a difference of only one child per woman.

human responses to disaster

After a natural disaster, many people change from inward-directed concerns to outward-directed actions. After an initial response of shock and disbelief, our emotions of sympathy and empathy tend to dominate.

the human population today

At present, the world population is growing at about 1.2% per year for a doubling time of 58 years --a net figure derived by measuring the birth rate (fertility rate) and subtracting the death rate (mortality rate). the human population still grows by more than 80 million people per year (after subtracting human lives lost). --Each year, the world population increases by about the total population of Germany.

carrying capacity

Largest number of individuals of a population that a environment can support based on resources A fundamental principle of biology is that a population of animals cannot increase forever because they live in a finite ecosystem. ex) Ireland in the 1840s Easter Island (Rapa Nui): raises interesting philosophical questions

the significance of exponential growth

The curve describing the history of human population growth is flat to gently inclined for 160,000 years, and then it rises rapidly in the last three centuries. --Even with the recent decreases in fertility rates, the population explosion is not over. A growth rate of 1.2% per year will cause the world population of humans to exceed 10 billion by the year 2050 +The effect of exponential growth is racing ahead. *the time to add another billion people to the total population has decreased.

the correlation between human population density and the number of natural-disaster deaths

Where humans are concentrated, disasters can kill many more people during each high-energy event. --densely populated Asia dominates the list of fatalities. --The Asian experience offers a sobering view of what may befall the global population of humans if we continue our rapid growth.

Pandemics

With the human population now exceeding 7 billion people, with more than 50% of people now living in cities, and with the rapid movement of people worldwide via jet airplanes, the potential exists for a new pandemic disease.

Mitigation

the process of making plans and taking actions to eliminate or reduce the threat of future death and destruction when natural hazards suddenly become great threats.

magnitude of natural disasters

the size of the natural disaster

Demographic Transition Model

1. Before the transition: high death rates are offset by high birth rates to maintain a population. 2. During the transition: low death rates coupled with continuing high birth rates cause population to soar. 3. After the transition: low death rates combine with low birth rates to achieve a stable population at a significantly higher level. Most of the population growth is occurring in the poorest areas of the poorest countries. Some of the wealthiest countries now have more deaths than births each year. *Much hope is placed in the demographic transition model

Rule of 70

A method for determining the number of years it will take for some measure to double, given its annual percentage increase. Example: To determine the number of years it will take for the price level to double, divide 70 by the annual rate of inflation. Example: 5% annual interest 70/5= 14 years

the relationship between frequency and magnitude of natural disasters

As the magnitude of an event increases, its frequency of occurrence decreases. --For all hazards, small-scale activity is common, but big events are rarer. --measured by the disasters return period ( the larger energetic event has a longer return period ) EX) clouds and rain are common, hurricanes are uncommon; streams overflow frequently, large floods are infrequent.

THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN NATURAL-DISASTER DEATH TOTALS

Deaths from natural disasters can no longer be dismissed as random acts of nature. They are a direct and inevitable consequence of high-risk land use and the failures of government to adapt or respond to such known risks.

The most frequent mega-killers (1970-2016)

Earthquakes (23) and tropical storms/Hurricanes (10) 30 of the 40 worst natural disasters occurred in a belt running from China and Bangladesh through India and Iran to Turkey. Nine happened in the Americas BECAUSE it has a high population density

Frequency of Natural Disasters

How often do natural hazards or disasters occur

Why do people return to a devastated site and rebuild?

Popocatépetl (smokey mountain) Volcano, Mexico: good opportunities for farming, coupled with faith and fatalism, bring people back. *It is relatively easy to identify natural hazards, but as the Popocatépetl case history shows, it is not easy to decide how to answer the questions presented by this volcanic hazard.

cost-benefit ratios of economics

Should you spend the added money necessary to guarantee that your building will withstand the rare destructive event? Or do economic considerations suggest that your building be constructed to the same standards as similar buildings in nearby nonhazardous areas? ex) given an area with a natural hazard that puts forth a dangerous pulse of energy with a return period of about 600 years, how much money should you spend constructing a building that will be used about 50 years before being torn down and replaced?

doubling time

The number of years needed to double a population, assuming a constant rate of natural increase. Doubling Time = 70 / % growth rate/year

the demographic transition human populations

Yet even without significant economic development, Population Reference Bureau estimates of the rates of world population growth are dropping --what's causing this decrease in fertility? +due largely to urbanization and increased opportunities for women. --wealthy countries have low or even negative rates of population growth. Many poor nations have high rates of population growth

demographic transition theory

both mortality and fertility decline from high to low levels because of economic and social development

natural disaster

great destruction or loss of life caused by natural forces rather than by human actions --concentrated pulses of energy cause natural disasters --In 2016, the known economic losses from natural disasters were about US$166 billion.

Viruses

life in the simplest form. --They are genetic material (DNA or RNA) coated by fat and protein. --Viruses cannot reproduce by themselves; they must invade a host cell and cause the host to reproduce the virus. --When two different viruses enter a single cell, their genes can form new combinations, creating a new type of virus. -New flu viruses are commonly created where people live closely with birds and pigs. Influenza A Viruses cause recurrent epidemics and pandemics, as in 1918-1919. --EX) Early in 2009, a flu epidemic broke out near La Gloria in the state of Veracruz, Mexico. By 23 April 2009, 23,000 cases had been reported. By 7 May 2009, the flu had spread to become a pandemic, with cases identified in 21 countries on five continents.

demographic transitions

more-developed countries have gone through demographic transitions: --they have gone from high death rates and high birth rates to low death rates and low birth rates. less-developed countries: --have low to moderate death rates and high birth rates

Earthquake Fatalities

population becoming five times larger at 7.5 billion people in the year 2017, million-death earthquakes may occur five times as frequently, or about one per century. --Most of the human population growth, by birth and by migration, is occurring in cities in less-developed countries. --Many of these people are living in poorly constructed buildings in mega-cities. *Million-death earthquakes are possible in a growing number of mega-cities.

economic losses from natural disasters

the economic losses are greater than just damaged structures; industries and businesses are knocked out of operation, causing losses in productivity and wages for employees left without places to work. --The highest insurance dollar losses occurred in the United States (23 of 40), Europe (6), and Japan (6). *Wealthy countries are better insured and their people live in safer buildings. --The extent of economic and insured losses may take years to become known. (Will keep adding up)

Return period/recurrence interval

the number of years between same-sized events. --On a yearly basis, most low-fatality events are due to floods and tornadoes, and their return times are brief, less than one year. --High-fatality events are dominantly hurricanes and earthquakes, and their return times for mega-killer events are much longer than for floods and tornadoes.

natural hazard

the probability of a dangerous event occurring. EX) people migrate and build next to rivers that are likely to flood, on the shoreline of the sea awaiting a powerful storm, and on the slopes of volcanoes that will eventually erupt. Decades, or even centuries, may pass with no great disasters, but the hazard remains. *Natural hazards are inevitable, but natural disasters are not. --Mitigating actions must be taken to prevent a natural disaster (may be engineering, physical, social, or political.) +Another need for mitigation occurs after great disasters because people around the world tend to reoccupy the same site after a disastrous event is done.

great natural disaster

these events so overwhelm regions that international assistance is needed to rescue and care for people, clean up the destruction, and begin the process of reconstruction. --Commonly kill thousands of people, leave hundreds of thousands homeless, and overwhelm the regional economy. ex) +the Japan earthquake and tsunami in 2011 +the Haiti earthquake in 2010 +the Myanmar cyclone and China earthquake in 2008 +ALL combined to kill almost 500,000 people