Chapter 12 (Judgment and Reasoning) Study Guide fo Exam 3

somatic markers/emotions/decisions

- People's decisions are powerfully influenced by emotion - People seem to assess risk in emotional terms- factors into decision-making process - Emotional memories can also factor into decisions- bodily arousal triggered by strong emotional reactions (E.g., bodily arousal from remembering a scary movie, or romantic encounter, etc.) In the same way anticipated events can produce bodily arousal- Damasio (1994) suggests these sensations are known as ______________ ____________- states of the body used in decision making; for example, a tight stomach and an accelerated heart rate when a person is thinking about a particular option can signal to the person that the option has risk associated with it In making decisions, we rely on "gut feelings"- makes us more inclined toward options that give us positive feelings, and more repelled by options that give us negative feelings Orbitofrontal cortex is crucial brain region responsible for somatic markers; When this region is damaged, it impairs ability to interpret ________________, and consequently, ability to make ___________________

representativeness/probability

Another type of attribute substitution is used in making judgments of probability by relying on resemblance to known cases; ________________________ Heuristic- a strategy that is often used in making judgments about categories; this strategy is broadly equivalent to making the assumption, that, in general, the instances of a category will resemble the prototype for that category and, likewise, that the prototype resembles each instance; The "resemblance" of examples is used as an index of _____________________

base rate/diagnostic

Assessment of covariation can be offset by a neglect of _________ ___________ Information- information about how frequently something occurs in general People often ignore base rates despite their importance: Study by Kahneman and Tversky (1973) Asked participants "If someone is chosen at random from a group of 70 lawyers and 30 engineers, what is his profession likely to be?" Participants were able to perfectly understand in this scenario that the likelihood of someone being a lawyer was .70; In some settings, people are sensitive to base-rate information Other participants given similar task with same base rates but also were given brief descriptions of certain individuals, providing ________________ Information- information about the particular case; with some descriptions suggesting someone was a lawyer, some an engineer, and some neutral; When provided with base rates and diagnostic information, they relied only on the descriptive information about the individual in making their probability judgments- Participants responses were identical even when base rates were reversed (30 lawyers and 70 engineers) diagnostic information resulted in base rate neglect

category/knowledge/diverse

Background knowledge shapes the quality of a person's thinking when making a judgment The impact of sample size depends on the judgment domain Study modeled after Nisbett et al. (1983)- Participants told they were visiting an island and observed one native from the Barratos tribe that was obese Asked how likely it was that all members of the Barratos tribe were obese after this one encounter; Then asked if this estimate would be different if they had seen 3, or 20, members of the tribe - The more cases that were in the sample, the more of the population that the participants estimated to be obese Asked similar question after viewing the color of one bird (Shreeble) and viewing the color of one mineral (Floridium) - Their willingness to draw conclusions about these things heavily depended on the __________________ Presumably, participants were guided by background __________________ that samples of minerals all tend to resemble one another; that individual birds can differ from one another; and that tribal members can differ from one another The more _______________ the participants perceived the groups to be, the more they insisted on gaining more evidence before drawing any conclusions

balanced presentations

Balanced presentations appear to mislead participants E.g, in balanced presentations on climate change, each speaker presumably has a 50% chance of being right, but in reality, the speaker on one side of the argument represents a position held by more than 90% of experts ____________ ________________ lead participants to perceive less agreement among experts than there actually is and less likely to believe there is enough agreement among experts to justify either side Becomes a big problem because we can find either side of an argument online- but that does not necessarily mean each side of the argument has the same amount of supporting evidence to back it

social sensitivity/beliefs

Belief Perseverance- the phenomenon that occurs when people are presented with disconfirming evidence that is undeniable, but continue to overlook it Study by Ross, Lepper & Hubbard (1975): Participants given a series of suicide notes and asked to distinguish which ones were real and collected by police, and which were fake and written by students as an exercise Participants received feedback as they went through the notes about how accurately they were identifying real vs. fake notes- but this feedback had nothing to do with how they were really performing; half the group had been predetermined to receive positive feedback and the other half to receive negative After completion, participants told the feedback they were given was fake and then asked to rate how well they thought they had performed at the task (social sensitivity) Despite learning that the feedback they received was completely false (disconfirming evidence) participants that had received positive feedback still rated their ___________ _____________ as above average and those that had received negative feedback rated their social sensitivity as below average Their _____________ persevered even when the basis for them had been completely disconfirmed

inconsistent

Confirmation bias also seen when people accept information consistent with their beliefs at face value, without challenging or questioning it; when they encounter _______________ information, they are often skeptical and scrutinize it Study by Gilovich (1983)- Examined gamblers betting on professional football games All gamblers believed they had good strategies for picking winning teams, and were faithful in these strategies despite a series of losses Regarded the losses as "flukes" or "odd incidents" that were not likely to reflect on the success of their strategy in the long run Winning bets remembers as "wins"; losing bets remembered as "near wins"

belief perseverance

Confirmation bias contributes to ________________ ___________________ because people will search their minds for more confirming evidence to counter any disconfirming evidence they may have received Participants in the fake suicide note study (Ross, Lepper & Hubbard, 1975) performed a selective search of evidence after learning the feedback they had been given was false in order to support their preexisting beliefs of their social sensitivity in this task

sample size

Education also influences a person's quality of thinking: Study by Fong, Krantz, and Nisbett (1986)- Conducted telephone survey of "opinions about sports" by calling students in statistics course: - 1/2 were contacted during first week of semester - 1/2 were contacted during last week Students in this course had learned about importance of ___________ ______________; patterns visible in small sample data could easily be result of accident and large sample sizes have more reliable data Students were asked question related to sample size: question comparing baseball player's performance in first year to rest of career (first year is small sample of overall performance) - Students contacted in first week of semester presumably had little education about importance of sample size, and only 16% gave answers that considered sample size - Students contacted in last week of semester presumably had more education about importance of sample size, and number of answers influenced by sample size more than doubled to 37%

orbitofrontal/emotion

Elliot- a patient who underwent surgery to remove a small brain tumor; after surgery his IQ score was just as high as it had been before the surgery but he became hopelessly indecisive Damage to his _______________________ cortex caused Elliot to lose emotions- decisions often involve an element of risk-taking, and people rely heavily on emotions when evaluating these risks Inability to feel _______________ --> inability to judge risk in decision-making --> inability to make decisions

orbitofrontal/somatic

Emotion and decision making study In this study, participants had to choose cards from one of two decks - One deck (the "disadvantageous" one) offered large payoffs but also large penalties; so, in the long run, it was better to choose from the other ("advantageous" deck), which provided smaller payoffs, but also smaller penalties (less risk) - "Normal control" participants- people with no brain damage- quickly learned about the decks and were soon making most of their choices from the advantageous deck (and so earned more overall) - Participants with damage to the _______________ cortex, in contrast, continued to favor the risky deck; Because of their brain damage, they were unable to use the ______________ markers normally associated with risk- so they failed to heed the "gut feeling" that could have warned them against a dangerous choice

circumstances/content

Errors can be made in both inductive and deductive reasoning, but in both domains, higher-quality thinking can be encouraged by the "right" ___________________ (the variation of the four-card task over the original) In logical reasoning, a problem's ______________ can sometimes trigger more accurate reasoning

covariation/

Errors caused by heuristics can cause other errors, including errors in judgments of ___________________- a relationship between two variables such that the presence (or magnitude) of one variable can be predicted from the presence (or magnitude) of the other - Covariation can be strong or weak, and can also be negative or positive - Covariation is important in evaluating beliefs about cause and effect

belief bias/syllogism

Errors in logical reasoning are quite systematic People often show pattern of ____________ ______________- a tendency, within logical reasoning, to endorse a conclusion if the conclusion happens to be something one believes is true anyhow. In displaying this tendency, people seem to ignore both the premises of the logical argument and logic itself, and they rely instead on their broader pattern of beliefs about what is true and what is not E.g., if a _______________________'s conclusion happens to be something that people think is true anyhow, they're likely to judge the conclusion as following logically from the premises (similar pattern if conclusion happens to be something that is false, their judgment is consistent with these beliefs)

syllogisms/invalid

Errors in logical reasoning seem to occur frequently Evident in studies using categorical _____________________- a type of logical argument that begins with two assertions (the problem's premises) each containing a statement about a category, and a conclusion, and concerned with the properties of, and relations between, categories E.g., "All trees are plants, all plants require nourishment. Therefore, all trees require nourishment.": - this is a valid syllogism, since the truth of the premises guarantees the truth of the conclusion An example of an invalid syllogism would be: All P are M; all S are M. Therefore, all S are P Study by Chapman & Chapman (1959): - Found that research participants asked to reason about syllogisms tend to do remarkably poorly - Gave participants syllogisms (including "All P are M; all S are M. Therefore, all S are P") The vast majority of participants endorsed the ______________ conclusion that "all S are P" with only 9% getting this problem right

representativeness/homogeneity

Errors still arise in the ________________________ heuristic: - Gambler's fallacy: Perception that a certain outcome is overdue to occur, neglecting the fact that each outcome is independent of the next; every coin toss has the same likelihood of being heads or tails (50% every time) (e.g., if a coin is flipped 6 times and lands on tails each time, the next time it MUST be heads- turns out to be false because each flip is independent of one another) - The gambler's fallacy is produced by assumptions of category _____________________; In the long run, a fair coin will produce equal numbers of heads/tails so the category "all tosses" has this property- This assumption leads to the expectation that any "representative" of the category will also have this property (any sequence of tosses, whether in the long run or not, will show same 50-50 split of heads-tails outcomes

availability

Experiment to Demonstrate _____________________ Subjects see list of names- then asked whether list contained more men or women Some names are famous, some are not All lists have equal numbers of men and women. If men on a list were relatively famous, subjects report that the list has more men If women on list were relatively more famous, subjects report that the list has more women.

reason based/positive/negative/framing

Explaining differences in decision making based on framing, although framing has no impact on actual utility of each option 1) One possibility is people are trying to use something like utility calculations when making decisions, but turn out to not be good at it- As a result, they are diverted from decision-making by distractions such as how the decision is framed 2) Another possibility is more radical- theorizing that we are not guided by utilities at all but that we make decisions based on what we feel good about: decisions that we see as reasonable and justified Known as _____________ ______________ Choice- a proposal for how people make different decisions; The central idea is that people make a choice when- and only when- they detect what they believe to be a persuasive reason for making that choice (E.g., child custody case In deciding who to award custody, participants asked themselves "what would justify giving custody to one parent over the other?" Drew attention to each parent's ________________ traits and were then convinced by Parent B's above-average income and close relationship with the child In deciding who to deny custody, participants asked themselves "What would justify this denial?" This framing drew attention to ________________ attributes- namely Parent B's heavy travel schedule and health problems In both cases, participants relied on justification in making their decision) Shift in _________________ of question causes change in factors relevant to that specific justification, explaining why the shift in framing reversed the pattern of decisions

availability/organization

Heuristics are efficient strategies that often lead to the right answer, but heuristics also allow for errors- We pay a price for the efficiency that they provide Study by Tversky and Kahneman (1973, 1974) Most people insist that there are more words beginning with the letter R in the dictionary than there are words with an R in the third position ("tarp," "throw," "bare") There are actually more words with R in the third position, by a margin of at least 2-to-1 Most people get this wrong because of errors deriving from the use of the ___________________ heuristic; Many words come to mind that start with R, but it is more difficult to think of words with an R in the third position because memory is roughly organized like a dictionary so words that share a starting sound tend to be grouped together _____________________ of memory creates bias about what is easily available; this bias in availability leads to an error in frequency judgment

homogeneity/resemblance

How does the representativeness heuristic work? Many categories we encounter are relatively homogenous- each member of a category tends to generally resemble one another (e.g., think about the category "birds") Representativeness heuristic capitalizes on this ______________________- we typically expect each member of a category to be representative of the category overall We can use judgments of ___________________ to evaluate likelihood of category membership

confirmation bias

Illusions of Covariation People tend to routinely detect covariation even when there is none producing an illusion of covariation What causes this? - People only seem to consider a subset of evidence when judging covariation, and the evidence they consider is based on their prior expectations Biased input --> biased output - Selection of input is likely guided by ___________________ __________________- tendency to be more alert to evidence that confirms your beliefs rather than to evidence that might challenge them Our beliefs and expectations influence our judgments

utility

In an experiment, doctors hear about a hypothetical patient: - One group given choice between surgery or a drug: 53% choose surgery - Another group given choice between surgery or either of two different drugs: 72% choose surgery - Hard to find reason to choose one drug over the other; they choose surgery instead Even when it is possible to calculate which choice will maximize ________________, many decisions, including very important decisions, are made based on other factors, and subjects are generally unaware of how they are making their decisions.

frequency/availability

Induction- starting with specific facts and drawing general conclusions from them One type of induction: determining the __________________ with which something occurs Many subjects have a higher estimate for the number of words matching _ _ _ _ i n g than for words matching _ _ _ _ _ n _, even though that is not logically possible. Why? Kahneman and Tversky propose an explanation. To answer the question, you might try to recall as many words as you can that fit the pattern. Most people can think of more _ _ _ _ i n g words than _ _ _ _ _ n _ words. use of the ______________ Heuristic - Strategy for estimating the frequency with which something occurs. - Try to recall as many instances as possible. The more instances recalled, the higher the estimate of frequency. - Kahneman and Tversky propose that it is a general strategy used in many different situations. In most real-world situations in which it is used, Availability usually works well; However, it is not guaranteed to give the right answer- it is a heuristic- a quick procedure that produces answers that are usually right, but not always

frequency estimate/heuristics

Information we use when making judgments is often concerned with frequencies; a wide range of judgments begin with a _________________ __________________- an assessment of how often various events have occurred in the past For many judgments we make in everyday life, we don't have direct access to this information; when frequency is not available to make judgments, we will often rely on relevant cases in a process known as attribute substitution; __________________ are a common type of attribute substitution

illogical/logical

Issues with belief-bias pattern: Demonstrates a failure to distinguish between good arguments (ones that are truly persuasive) and bad ones causing people to endorse _______________ arguments if they lead to conclusions they like and to reject _________________ arguments if they don't

Type 2

Judgment errors can partially be explained by the Cognitive Reflection Test Test includes three questions- each question has obvious answer that turns out to be wrong so in order to do well on the test, one must resist the obvious answer and spend a moment thoroughly reflecting on the question People who do well on this test tend to rely more on ______________ _______ thinking and are likely to avoid errors in judgment

affective forecasting/underestimate

Many decisions depend on a forecast of future emotions ________________ ______________________ - the process in which a person predicts how they will feel at some future point about an object or state of affairs It turns out that people are surprisingly inaccurate in these predictions and, for example, understate their own capacity to adapt to changes Many studies where people are asked how they would feel after a significant event (e.g., a breakup); People can typically predict whether they will have a positive or negative reaction- but people consistently overestimate how long these feelings will last, presumably underestimating their abilities to adjust in the future, and also underestimating how easily they'll find excuses and rationalizations for their own mistakes Likewise, people generally overestimate how long current emotions will last; Convinced things that bother them currently will continue to bother them; convinced things that bring them pleasure will continue to please them In both instances, people consistently __________________ their ability to adapt

utility maximization

Obvious suggestion about decision making is that we use our individual values and goals in making decisions Each decision we make has certain costs associated with it (consequences moving us farther from our goals) and certain benefits (consequences moving us closer to our goals) To make decisions, we weigh the costs and benefits of the decision against each other to minimize costs/maximize benefits Referred to as _____________ _________________- the proposal that people make decisions by selecting the option that has the greatest utility (refers to the value we place on a particular outcome); We make decisions based on what we perceive will bring us the most utility possible

judgment

One of the central forms of thinking is __________________- the process through which people draw conclusions from the evidence they encounter, often evidence provided by life experiences People make judgments based largely on experience Also instances in which people seem to not learn from experience; appears that people sometimes draw accurate conclusions from experience and sometimes do not

availability/frequency

One type of attribute substitution relies on the availability of information in making judgments of frequency; ________________ Heuristic- a particular form of attribute substitution in which the person needs to judge the frequency of a certain type of object or the likelihood of a certain type of even; For this purpose, the person is likely to assess the ease with which examples of the object or event come to mind; this "availability" of examples is then used as an index of ______________- or likelihood

positively/negatively

Other studies demonstrate similar patterns in framing effects: Study by Tversky & Kahneman (1987) 1) Problem 1: Assume yourself richer by $300 than you are today. You have to choose between: A sure gain of $100 50% chance to gain $200 and 50% chance to gain nothing 2) Problem 2: Assume yourself richer by $500 than you are today. You have to choose between: A sure loss of $100 50% chance to lose nothing and 50% chance to lose $200 Although the two problems are still objectively identical, respondents prefer option A in problem 1 (72% choose A) and option B in problem 2 (64% choose B) By changing the frames, the pattern of preferences is again reversed with participants preferring the sure thing in the ________________ framed scenario, and the gamble in the _________________ framed scenario

evidence

People are also influenced by how ______________ is framed E.g., rate a basketball player more highly when told he makes 75% of his free throws vs. missing 25% of his free throws; more likely to endorse medical treatment with 50% success rate than with a 50% failure rate

confirmation bias/beliefs/confirm

People tend to be more sensitive to evidence that supports their beliefs than to evidence that contradicts their beliefs: ___________________ ___________________ is an "umbrella term" that can take many forms- all of these forms have the tendency to protect ___________ from challenge Study by Wason (1966, 1968)- Participants given series of numbers such as "2, 4, 6" and told these numbers conformed to a certain rule and were asked to figure out the rule. They were also allowed to propose their own series of numbers and asked if they followed the rule in order to help them figure it out Once participants were convinced they had discovered the rule, they announced their "discovery" The rule was simply that three numbers had to be listed in ascending order (e.g., 1, 3, 5 follow the rule but 6, 4, 2 does not) Despite the simplicity of the rule, participants still had trouble figuring it out largely due to the type of information they requested as they were trying to evaluate their hypotheses about the rule- They only sought to _____________ the rule they had proposed and rarely proposed patterns for disconfirmation Those who did seek out disconfirmation were more likely to discover the rule

frequency

People tend to overestimate _____________________ of events that are actually quite rare May explain people's willingness to buy lottery tickets (overestimate probability of winning) & why physicians tend to overestimate likelihood of rare diseases and as a result fail to pursue more appropriate diagnoses

better/beer/16

Performance is ______________ in variations of the four-card task Study by Griggs and Cox (1982)- Asked participants to test conditional rules like "If a person is drinking a beer, then the person must be at least 21 years old" Participants were still given the four-card task but with different labels on the cards according to this new rule, and asked which ones to turn over to test the rule Participants did much better in this variation of the task: 73% correctly selected the cards labeled "Drinking a ____________" and also the card labeled "_____________ years of age" (rather than selecting "drinking a coke" or "22 years of age") How well you think depends on what you're thinking about- Both four-card tasks (the original and the variation) have the same logical structure, but yield different patterns in performance

dual process/heuristics/accurate

Proposal that there are two types of thinking: - Fast and easy (e.g., the use of heuristics) - Slower and more effortful (more accurate) ____________ ______________ Model- any model of thinking that claims people have two distinct means of making judgments- one of which is fast, efficient, but prone to error, and one that is slower, more effortful, but also more accurate Type 1- thinking that is fast, efficient, but prone to error (e.g., the use of _______________) Type 2- thinking that is slower, more effortful, but more _______________________

homogeneity

Reasoning from a Single case to the Entire Population Assumptions of ________________ can lead to another error that is evident whenever people try to persuade each other with a "man who" argument People may use a single instance (usually from a bad experience) to reason that all similar instances will result in the same outcome, and use this single instance to try to persuade you that it is true Only persuasive by virtue of assumptions of category homogeneity

recently

Recent Memories and Availability Recent events are easier to remember than earlier events If Availability is used to estimate the frequency of an occurrence, then something that has occurred ________________ will seem to occur more frequently This explains: - Why people are more likely to fasten seatbelts after seeing an accidents - Why you might be more likely to back up your computer files after a friend loses theirs

award/deny

Related framing effects emerge in questions: Child custody scenario by Shafir (1993)- Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole-custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous economic, social, and emotional considerations, and you decide to base your decision entirely on the following few observations. To which parent would you award sole custody of the child? Parent A: - Average income - Average health - Average working hours - Reasonable rapport with child - Relatively stable social life Parent B: - Above-average income - Very close relationship with the child - Extremely active social life - Lots of work-related travel - Minor health problems Participants tend to favor Parent B by a wide margin (in award wording scenario); However, in deny wording scenario, participants also chose Parent B, thus awarding custody to Parent A instead With the "___________________" question, a majority of people chose to give custody to Parent B; with the "_____________" question, a majority of people chose to deny custody to Parent B and grant custody to Parent A instead

in/out/framed

Related pattern of framing demonstrated in how a decision is presented Very few people opt to be organ donors- may be due to the way the decision to donate is framed US uses "opt-in" decision- donor has to explicitly say they want to be a donor and if it is not explicitly mentioned, it is assumed they do not want to be one Germany also uses opt-__________ system: only 12% of German citizens have agreed to be organ donors Other countries use "opt-out" decisions- assumes that everyone is a donor unless they explicitly say that they do not want to be one Austria uses opt-________ system: 99% of Austrian citizens agree to be donors This pattern is demonstrated in other decisions, and in each instance, the reason for more non-participation is the reliance on an opt-in system Implications for public policy, indicating that it may be better to frame decisions in terms of opt-out decisions than opt-in (e.g., for green energy initiatives, saving for retirement, etc.) Contrast between opt-out and opt-in decisions demonstrates how our choices are partially governed by how decisions are ___________________

seeking/aversion

Reliable pattern emerges from framing data If frame casts a choice in terms of losses, decision makers tend to be risk _______________- they prefer to gamble, presumably attracted by the idea that they might avoid the losses If the frame casts a choice in terms of gains, decision makers are likely to show risk ________________- they refuse to gamble and instead choose to hold tight with what is certain The problem with this arises when people fluctuate between risk seeking and risk aversion simply based on the framing of different scenarios

conjunction rule/representativeness

Situation: Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti- nuclear demonstrations. Task: Rate how likely each of these statements is to be true about Linda Linda is a teacher in elementary school. Linda works in a bookstore and takes Yoga classes. Linda is active in the feminist movement. Linda is a psychiatric social worker. Linda is a member of the League of Women Voters. * Linda is a bank teller * Linda is an insurance salesperson. * Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. * Many subjects rate the probability of the second highlighted description (Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement) as higher than the first, (Linda is a bank teller) but that is logically impossible The _____________________ ______________: P (A&B) <= P(A) The probability of (bank teller and feminist) will always be less than or equal to the probability of (bank teller) Why does the second option seem more probable than the first? Kahneman and Tversky- __________________________ Heuristic - Estimate probability that an exemplar belongs in a category by assessing how representative that event is of the appropriate category Linda is more representative of a feminist than a bank teller; therefore, descriptions including feminism seem more likely than "bank teller" by itself In this case, representativeness leads to a violation of the conjunction rule

induction/deduction

Some thinking requires _____________________- the process through which you make forecasts about new cases, based on cases you've observed so far; Building theories from evidence Other patterns of thinking require _______________- a process in which you start with claims or assertions that you count as "given" and ask what follows from these premises; Using theories to think of possible implications/causes; Helps keep beliefs in touch with reality

retrieval

Study by Fox (2006) When professor asked students to come up with 10 potential improvements for the course (vs the other group that was asked to come up with 2), they were more likely to give the course higher ratings overall More difficult to come up with 10 (vs 2) improvements- this difficulty in recall was likely interpreted by the students as meaning that the course had little room for improvement difficulty in ____________________ of 10 improvements was misinterpreted due to the availability heuristic

averse/seeking

The Asian Disease Problem In the positive frame scenario, more people chose Program A (with the positive frame in terms of lives "saved"); in the negative frame scenario, more people chose program B (with the negative frame of Program A in terms of "will die") By changing the phrasing, the pattern of respondents' preferences was reversed although both problems are objectively identical- nothing changes between the two scenarios besides the phrasing The framing of the decision has an enormous impact turning a 3-to-1 preference (72% Program A vs. 28% Program B) in one direction into a 4-to-1 preference (78% Program B vs. 22% Program A) in the opposite direction People like idea of sure gains, and dislike idea of sure losses. This predisposes them to be risk ____________ in gains and risk ________________ in losses.

disconfirming

The Four-Card Task: Similar conclusions on belief bias drawn from research on conditional statements- statements in the format of "If X, then Y," with the first statement providing a condition under which the second statement is guaranteed to be true Often studied with the selection task sometimes known as the four-card task- participants are shown four playing cards and are told that each card has a number on one side and a letter on the other Asked to evaluate the rule "If a card has a vowel on one side, it must have an even number on the other side" and then must decide which cards to turn over to test this rule Many participants turn over the "A" card to check for an even number or the "A" and the "6;" very few test this rule correctly by turning over the "A" and the "7" (to check for a ________________ case of the rule)

social contract/evolution

The structure of the drinking age problem is exactly the same (based on Wason card task) Yet 75% usually respond correctly to this version of the problem Why do so many get the drinking problem correct while getting the basic problem wrong? 1) One explanation: ________________ Schemas- To make the connection to the appropriate schema, we need to recall situations similar to the problem; This idea is similar to the Availability Heuristic 2) Alternative explanation: Detecting Cheaters- We do better whenever we can understand the problem in terms of a ________________ ________________, because we have cognitive mechanisms to detect cheaters Why should that be? Social cooperation key for survival- these mechanisms could be shaped by ____________________ Testing Availability and social contract Explanations Experiment by Leda Cosmides: True or False: If a man eats a cassava root, then he must have a tattoo on his face Which of these men must you check to determine whether the rule is true? 1) Is eating a cassava root (P) 2) Is eating molo nuts (not P) 3) Has a tattoo on his face (Q) 4) Has no tattoo on his face (not Q) In this form, only 21% give the correct response- Not a surprise, because both the Availability and Social Contract explanations predict poor performance If subjects are told before: A tattoo means that a man is married. Cassava root is an aphrodisiac that makes men irresistible to women. This makes it a social contract situation. Now 75% correct responses Cosmides' experiment suggests that we perform better at reasoning when we understand problems in terms of a social contract- It still leaves open the question of whether our understanding of social contracts is rooted in genes that were shaped by evolution

quantity/random chance

Type 1 thinking is also likely to be fast-but-accurate if random chance is present in a problem Random chance indicates "evidence" is probably result of an accident and not ordinarily likely or indicative of a pattern Thus, when random chance is present, people are more likely to pay attention to _________________ of evidence based on idea that more evidence means less vulnerability to chance fluctuations Study by Nisbett, Krantz, Jepson & Kunda (1983): - Participants asked about someone who evaluated a restaurant based on one meal (not a good gage of actual quality of restaurant because opinion based on one piece of evidence) - In one condition, participants told that diner chose his entrée by randomly dropping a pencil on the menu; These participants were more cautious about his assessment based on a single meal in this scenario (________________ ________________ scenario with only one piece of evidence)

neglected/frequencies

Type 1 thinking is not always flawed, and can be quite sophisticated if environment contains "right" triggers Sensitivity to base rates can be demonstrated even in Type 1 thinking Mixed pattern of base-rate neglect/sensitivity is attributable to how base rates are presented: - More likely to be ________________ if presented in terms of probabilities/proportions "There is a .01 chance that people like Mary will have this disease." - More likely to be sensitive to and include base rates in judgments if presented in terms of ___________________ "12 out of every 1,000 cases" vs "1.2% or .012" The way that people decide whether or not to incorporate base rates into judgments depends on how the problem is presented (frequencies are more "user-friendly" than probabilities or percentages)

P/Q

Wason Card Task Each card has a word on the front and a single character on the back Errors in logic: In the basic Wason task, you are testing a rule in the form "If P, then Q"- "If there is a place name on the front, then there is a letter on the back" P = place name on front Q = letter on back The four cards correspond to the four different types of information you can have in solving this problem; The rules of logic tell us that in order to properly test this type of rule, we must test "_______" and "not ____________." The other two categories, "Q" and "not P" are not relevant to the truth of the rule. In the basic version of this task 25% or less usually respond correctly Many subjects leave out the "not Q" response, and many include the "Q" response

resemblance

What causes people to ignore base rates? - Partially has to do with attribute substitution- When asked if particular person is lawyer or engineer, people seem to turn this question about category membership into an issue of ________________ instead - People ignore the base rates in this case because they are not concerned as much whether the individual is a lawyer or engineer, but whether they resemble one - This substitution can be helpful in cases, but causes a neglect of base rates - Base-rate neglect can be observed in both laboratory tasks and real-world judgments

time sensitive/attentional

When do people use Type 1 vs. Type 2 thinking? One hypothesis is that we choose which to use: - Presumably, we shift to using type 2 thinking when making judgments about things that really matter; However, we've seen that people still tend to use type 1 over type 2 even when given incentives for accuracy, when making professional judgments, even when making medical diagnoses- if this hypothesis were true, surely people would choose to use type 2 thinking in these instances if they could Another hypothesis suggests type 2 thinking is likely to come into play only when triggered by certain cues/only if circumstances are right: - Type 1 thinking (and heuristic based judgments/errors) are more likely in _____________ ______________ situations - Type 2 thinking requires effort- more likely to be used if person has _____________________ resources available to dedicate to judgment being made

frequency/retrieval

Why do people tend to overestimate frequency of events that are quite rare? Rare, emotional events are more likely to be recorded in memory than common ones- as a result, these events are more readily available in memory Reliance on availability heuristic --> overestimate _________________ of such events Example: Study by Schwarz et al. (1991) Participants asked to think about times in life when they had been assertive - 1/2 asked to recall 6 episodes - 1/2 asked to recall 12 episodes Participants then asked general questions about how assertive they thought they were, overall Group asked to recall 6 episodes had easier time coming up with them because they had to come up with fewer- assumed because it was an easy for them to think of these 6 instances quickly, they must be a very assertive person Group asked to recall 12 episodes had same ease in recalling first 6, but more difficulty in thinking of 6 more- assumed because the cases were hard to recall, they must not be very assertive assume that something is "typical" when instances easily come to mind Even though the group asked to come up with 12 were being asked to think of more instances, they did not have more positive views of their assertiveness Makes it evident that it is not the quantity of evidence that matters, but the ease of _________________

framing/affective

______________ effects leave people open to manipulation and self-contradiction Errors in _________________ forecasting guarantee that people will often take steps to avoid regrets that in reality they wouldn't have felt Lots of debate on subjective well-being based on decision-making research Are people really that bad at making decisions for themselves? Or do they not know what will truly make them happy?

deduction/beliefs

___________________- start with a general principle and work out specific facts that follow from it Syllogisms - valid: Premises: All X are Y All Z are X Conclusion: Therefore all Z are Y - Valid inference Syllogisms- invalid: Premises: All X are Y All Z are Y Conclusion: Therefore all Z are X - Invalid inference Belief Bias- Most subjects perform poorly in evaluating syllogisms Subjects are more likely to judge that the conclusion follows logically from the premises if the conclusion is consistent with their previously held ___________________

attribute substitution

a strategy in which you rely on easily assessed information as a proxy for the information you really need; for example, the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic

endowment effect

the tendency of people to be unwilling to sell a good they already own even if they are offered a price that is greater than the price they would be willing to pay to buy the good if they didn't already own it; we tend to value something more if we own it already 2 groups of subjects: 1) Subject given mug; Subject given opportunity to sell mug and asked to set price 2) Subject given cash; Subject given opportunity to buy mug and asked to set price Mug owners set the price twice as high as mug buying group