chapter 2

qualitative data collected separately

Delphi method

Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment is the process of combining statistical forecasting techniques and judgment to construct demand estimates for products or services. TRUE FALSE

FALSE

Forecasts are more accurate the farther out into the future that you forecast. TRUE FALSE

FALSE

Independent Demand is demand for an item that is directly related to other items or finished products, such as a component or material used in making a finished product. True or False

FALSE

The difference between the actual demand and the forecast demand

Forecast Error

_______________________ measures the size of the forecast error in units. It is calculated as the average of the unsigned errors over a specified period of time. Mean Squared Error Mean Absolute Percent Error Running Sum of Forecast Errors Mean Absolute Deviation

Mean Absolute Deviation (correct)

measures size of the error in percentage terms

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)

magnifies the errors by squaring each one before adding them up and dividing by the number of forecast periods.

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

5 types of quantitative forecast technique (time series)

Naive method, simple moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, linear trend forecasting

Instability in the data caused by random occurrences

Random Variation

Cause-and-Effect Models can have multiple independent variables. TRUE FALSE

TRUE

The Qualitative forecasting method is based on opinion & intuition. TRUE FALSE

TRUE

In the absence of any other information or visibility, individual supply chain participants can begin second-guessing what is happening with ordering patterns, and potentially start over-reacting. This is known as? Forecast Bias The Bullwhip Effect A Tracking Signal The Running Sum of Forecast Errors

The Bullwhip Effect

a wavelike pattern that can extend over multiple years

cyclical variation

5 types of qualitative

personal insight jury of executive opinion Delphi method sales force estimation customer survey

repeating pattern of demand from year to year

seasonal variation

What does the acronym CPFR represent? Coordinated Planning & Forecasting Relationships Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, & Replenishment Centralized Purchasing & Forecasting Relationships Collaborative Purchasing, Forecasting, & Receivables

Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, & Replenishment

Which one of the following is NOT a type of qualitative forecasting? Sales force composite Consumer survey Jury of executive opinion Naïve method

Naïve method (correct)

when data is limited, unavailable, not currently relevant, what forecast technique should be used

Qualitative

provides a measure of forecast bias. it indicates the tendency of a forecast to be consistently higher or lower than actual demand.

Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE)

When creating a quantitative forecast, data should be evaluated to detect for a repeating pattern of demand from year to year, or over some other time interval, with some periods of considerably higher demand than others. This is known as a? Trend Variation Random Variation Seasonal Variation Cyclical Variation

Seasonal Variation

Movement of a variable over time

Trend Variation