climate change exam 1
why co2 increase is due to fossil fuel burning, not natural fluctuations
- fossil fuel burning accounts for co2 increase because of utilization rate - atmospheric radiation has decreased since the industrial revolution - shows that additional carbon is coming from radiocarbon dead sources (fossil fuels)
big data are:
- huge in volume - high in velocity - diverse -exhaustive in scope - fine grained in resolution - relational - traits of extensionality and scaleability
how AGW would effect the distribution of extreme weather
- mean temperature increase - variance increase (most unlikely) - mean and variance increase (most likely)
arguments against AGW
- scientists dont all agree that its real - scientists are dishonest/biased - the info isnt all in - temperature data isnt reliable - global climate computer models are too crude to predict future climate changes - global warming/high co2 will be beneficial to organisms - GW trend stopped 16 years ago
internal interactions in a climate system
- transfers of material and energy - feedbacks - tipping points
how GW is countered by ice core data
- warming is just a natural variation - ice core record shows co2 lagging behind temperature - climate is always changing
The amount of global average surface temperature warming generally thought to have occurred since 1850 is about:
.8 c
Earth's 'climate sensitivity' is now judged to be in the range of:
1.5 to 4.5 oC
The Holocene is a geological time interval that began about: 120 thousand years ago 2 thousand 12 thousand years ago 1.2 million years ago
12 thousand years ago
How long ago was the peak of the last major glaciation?
20,000 years
About how many math calculations per second are performed by supercomputers at NASA's Center for Climate Simulation? 100 billion 400 trillion 35,000 100 million
400 trillion
How many ice ages occurred in the past two billion years of Earth's history?
5
How many ice ages occurred in the past two billion years of Earth's history? 2 1 5 0
5
To date, how many IPCC Assessment Reports have there been? 2 4 5 3 1
5
Earth has been in long-term cooling trend for the previous: 5 million years 250 million years 50 million years 150 million years
50 million years
Approximately _____ % of all data is within one standard deviation of the mean in a normal probability curve.
68
Approximately _____ % of all data is within one standard deviation of the mean in a normal probability curve. 68 35 50 99
68
About how far back in time does the proxy record of changing climate from ice cores extend? - 1000 yrs - 20 000 yrs - 800 000 yrs - 100 000 yrs
800,000 yrs
What probability level does the IPCC require to conclude that a climate change prediction or observation is virtually certain to occur? 100% >50% >75% >95% >99%
>99%
Which of the following is NOT true about chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12)? - they cause long-term depletion of stratospheric ozone - ALL of these are true - they have a global warming potential many times greater than CO2 - they are greenhouse gases - they are non-toxic refrigerants
ALL of these are true
Which of these is NOT predicted by climate models? - All of these are predicted - decreased precipitation in the subtropics - increased winter preciitation in polar and subpolar regions - decreased summer precipitation in middle latitudes - increaed precipitation near the equator
All of these are predicted
Which of the following is NOT one of the major organizations that assemble global instrumental surface temperature data into models showing global temperature variation over the past century? - American Meteorological Society Climate research center - NOAA National Climatic Data Center - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences - UK Meteorological Office Climate Research Unit (CRU)
American Meteorological Society Climate research center
An advantage of using regional models is that they can be easily stitched together to represent projected conditions across the globe. True False
False
Hurricanes would be detected by the 2007 IPCC models with the larger grid cell sizes.
False
GCM
General Circulation Model
Which of the following statements best describes climate during the past million years? Relatively stable Mostly warm with only brief cool periods Mostly cold with with only brief warm periods Many climate swings occurring on thousand year timescales
Many climate swings occurring on thousand year timescales
NWP
Numerical Weather Prediction
Which index is used to display the global pattern of drought in Dire Predictions? El Nino Index Global Drought Monitor Index Palmer Drought Severity Index Rainfall Deficit Index
Palmer Drought Severity Index
We are currently living in which Geological Time Period? Cenozoic Pleistocene Holocene Mesozoic Quaternary
Quaternary
Which of these scenario results in the highest CO2 concentrations in 2100? RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 6 RCP 2.6 none of these predict future CO2 concentrations
RCP 8.5
In AR5, potential future human CO2 emissions are called:
Representative Concentration Pathways
In AR5, potential future human CO2 emissions are called: Model Emission Scenarios Standardized Revised Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions
Representative Concentration Pathways
Which of these was NOT included in the models used to write the IPCC's first assessment report (FAR)? carbon cycling clouds land surface rain carbon dioxide
carbon cycling
Air bubbles in the Antarctic ice sheet show that
carbon dioxide was relatively low during cold periods
Air bubbles in the Antarctic ice sheet show that - carbon dioxide was relatively high during cold periods - carbon dioxide was relatively low during cold periods - carbon dioxide and temperature show no relationship - the Industrial Revolution substantially increased air temperatures
carbon dioxide was relatively low during cold periods
Which of these does NOT suggest human causation for global warming? - increased temperatures can only be simulated by models when increased atmosphere CO2 is included - atmosphere CO2 concentrations increased continuously since 1850's - carbon in atmosphere CO2 is getting younger - the increase in atmosphere CO2 matches the pattern of human usage of fossil fuels
carbon in atmosphere CO2 is getting younger
Which of the following is NOT a greenhouse gas? carbon monoxide ozone (O3) carbon dioxide water methane
carbon monoxide
What are Milankovitch cycles? - changes in Earth's orbit and orientation to the Sun - cycles of glacier advance and retreat through time - changes in volcanic activity through time - variations in atmosphere greenhouse gas concentrations - changes in atmospheric chemistry
changes in Earth's orbit and orientation to the Sun
Milankovitch cycles include all of the following, except: - the wobble in the direction of the Earth's rotational axis - changes in the distance between the earth and the Moon. - changes in the earth's axial tilt - changes in the path of the earth's orbit.
changes in the distance between the earth and the Moon.
Changes in a climate system that cause temperatures to rise or fall are called Climate forcings Temperature feedbacks Temperature drivers Climate outputs Climate inputs
climate forcings
The Earth has a greater albedo than the Moon because of the presence of:
clouds
Which of these is NOT a primary goal of climate modeling? - simulate processes at the scale of interest - condense large amounts of data into summary parameters - make accurate climate predictions - allow the model to be run in a reasonable amount of time
condense large amounts of data into summary parameters
Climate model simulations must include both natural and human factors to best represent the observed pattern of surface warming. True False
True
Most models project temperature increases that will be higher over land than over water. True False
True
Which statement best reflects model predictions of precipitation trends over the next century? Most regions will get dryer Most regions will get wetter Wet regions will get dryer, dry regions will get wetter Wet regions will get wetter, dry regions will get dryer There are no general statements that can be made on this topic
Wet regions will get wetter, dry regions will get dryer
Which of these is NOT an example of a 'primary source'? a technical report a conference paper a review of recent papers published on a topic a letter of correspondence a graduate dissertation
a review of recent papers published on a topic
What is the median estimated eventual (equilibrium) global average temperature that would result from a doubling of atmosphere CO2 concentration? (estimated using modern instrumental observations) about 5 degrees C about 1 degrees C about 3 degrees C about 2 degrees C about 9 degrees C
about 3 degrees C
The planetary albedo of the earth is: unknown about 80% about 5% about 30%
about 30%
The underlying purpose of the set of different emission scenarios (RCPs) is to - present a set of policy reccomendations - allow us to more easily compare the results of different climate models - warn of a potentially dangerous future - predict how much CO2 will be emitted by humans in the future - fine tune the 'climate sensitivity' of climate models
allow us to more easily compare the results of different climate models
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is mandated to do all EXCEPT: - assess the present state of knowledge concerning climate change - recommend mitigation strategies to deal with climate change - conduct research to better understand the causes and effects of climate change - report on the human and environmental impacts of climate change - develop and refine methodology and software for the calculation and reporting of national GHG emissions
conduct research to better understand the causes and effects of climate change
La Nina
cooling of pacific ocean surface - causes oceanic heat burial = global sea level rise
A reduction in ice cover would be expected to ______ Earth UV reflectivity and represents a _______ feedback to global warming. - increase, negative - decrease, positive - increase, positive - decrease, negative
decrease, positive
All systems are characterized by all of the following EXCEPT: display linear behavior can be driven by external forcing have tipping points defined by its boundaries have interactions amongst multiple components
display linear behavior
Which of these is NOT one of the 3 general types of models? conceptual physical elemental mathematical
elemental
According to Dire Predictions, which is true of the 2003 heat wave that killed 35,000? - it can definitely be causally linked to AGW - AGW may not have causeed it, but certainly made its worse (made its severity greater) - events such as this will occur more often given AGW - it would not have occured in the absence of AGW
events such as this will occur more often given AGW
According to Dire Predictions, climate change is projected to cause the polar jet stream to migrate towards the equator - true - false
false
An advantage of using regional models is that they can be easily stitched together to represent projected conditions across the globe. true false
false
As long as the Sun's solar output is constant, Earth's average global temperature will remain constant. - true - false
false
El Nino is considered a weather event, rather than a climate event. True False
false
The C cycle consists only of transfers of carbon between the atmosphere and plants and animals. True False
false
According to Kitchin big data exploration represents the _____ paradigm of science?
fourth
human impacts affecting climate change
greenhouse effect, aerosols, ozone depletion, changes in land use
Dire Predictions lists key features of the actual climate that current models do a good job of reproducing. Which of the following is NOT in that list?
hurricanes
According to Dire Predictions, what might happen that would cause the ocean's conveyor belt to shut down? - increased rainfall would mean surface waters would be less salty and would not sink - fast winds blowing over the water would displace surface waters and cause them to rise - the melting of the ice sheets would release salty water that would not sink - absorption of carbon dioxide would make the waters heavy and not allow them to rise
increased rainfall would mean surface waters would be less salty and would not sink
Which of these is an example of a positive skew of data when compared to a normal probability curve? increasing the mean decreasing the mean and increasing both tails of the distribution shifting all points towards the right increasing the tail of the distribution only on the right side of the curve
increasing the tail of the distribution only on the right side of the curve
Which of the follow has high relevance when running a NWP model? ocean dynamics type of surface initial conditions clouds and radiation
initial conditions
According to Dire Predictions, there is a likely strong association between the increase in sea surface temperatures and global tropical cyclone ________ . intensity and frequency intensity only frequency only
intensity only
Heavy stable isotopes such as Oxygen-18: - is enriched in glacial ice during glacial relative to interglacial periods - is present in equal relative abundance in glacier ice during glacial and intergl - is depleted in glacial ice during glacial relative to interglacial periods - is useful to scientists because it emits alpha rays - is more common than oxygen-16
is depleted in glacial ice during glacial relative to interglacial periods
The radiation emitted by Earth: - is primarily absorbed by the atmosphere - is in the form of UV waves - had its origin in radioactive elements in the earth's interior - has little effect on the earth's energy budget
is primarily absorbed by the atmosphere
factors affecting climate change
latitude, oceans, atmosphere
Which of the following was NOT used by Kitchin (2014) to define big data? high in velocity large in volume fine-grained in resolution limited in scope relational in nature
limited in scope
Greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere by absorbing and re-radiating ________ energy emitted by the _________.
long wave infrared, earth
When considering future projections, which of the following is virtually certain? tropical cyclone winds will increase average temperatures will increase by 3 degrees C magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes will increase wave heights will increase
magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes will increase
Which of the following is FALSE? - nearly all mountain glaciers are retreating - global average surface ocean temperature has increased over the past several decades - extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has decreased over the last few decades - nearly all regions of Antarctica ice sheets have decreased in thickness over the last few decades
nearly all regions of Antarctica ice sheets have decreased in thickness over the last few decades
Which of the following is very likely since 1950? blizzards have decreased number of cold days and nights has decreased floods have increased tornadoes have increased
number of cold days and nights has decreased
Milankovitch cycles include
orbit eccentricity (changes in path of orbit) axial tilt precision (wobble on rotational axis)
If one wants to know the oxygen isotope signature of seawater in the past they could examine: oxygen isotopes in marine plankton skeletons ocean crustal rock dust deposited in marine sediments carbon in ice core layers
oxygen isotopes in marine plankton skeletons
Hadley circulation
pattern of rising moist air near the equator and sinking dry air in the subtropics
which of these is not one of the basic steps in constructing a general circulation climate model? - make the model run through time - build a 3-D map of the earth's climate system - develop the computer code - run the model with different sets of initial conditions
run the model with different sets of initial conditions
Approximately how far back in time can one investigate climate change on Earth using oceanic sediment cores?
several hundred million years
Approximately how far back in time can one investigate climate change on Earth using oceanic sediment cores? - thousands of years - hundreds of thousands years - a few millions of years - billions of years - several hundred million years
several hundred million years
Approximately how far back in time can one investigate climate change on Earth using tree rings?
several thousands of years
The purpose of scientific conferences is to: - inform the public - determine what research to do - share new research findings and meet colleagues - write proposals for scientific research
share new research findings and meet colleagues
Which of these is NOT true? - increases in solar output over the past century may have contributed to global warming during this time - sun spot activity varies with an 11 year periodicity - solar output and sunspot activity are related - solar activity remains constant over century timescales
solar activity remains constant over century timescales
Among the flowing climate drivers, which of the following is estimated to have had the smallest impact during the past 250 years? methane aerosols chlorofluorocarbons black carbon solar irradiance
solar irradiance
Besides changes in atmosphere CO2 concentrations, changes in other climate forcing that are predicted to have had significant climate impacts over the past century include all EXCEPT black carbon clouds methane aerosols solar irradiance
solar irradiance
natural factors impacting climate
sun, volcanic eruptions, earths orbit
According to the Skeptical Raptor blog, which of these is NOT a "Red Flag" warming that the testimony of a scientific expert should NOT be trusted? - the 'expert' insists that he is an unacknowledged genius, a maverick who is shunned by mainstream science because of his unconventional ideas - 'expert' claims that some form of "scientific establishment" is suppressing his ideas - the 'expert' slickly rattles off a long list of assertions without providing evidence or allowing questions - the 'expert' rolls out glowing recommendations from clients or grateful followers - the 'expert' lists many of his own credentials such as awards from professional organizations and number of citations
the 'expert' lists many of his own credentials such as awards from professional organizations and number of citations
Albedo is a measure of:
the amount of solar radiation reflected from the Earth back to space
Albedo is a measure of: - the amount of solar radiation reflected from the Earth back to space - the concentration of incoming solar radiation - the amount of incoming solar radiation - the amount of solar energy scattered in the atmosphere
the amount of solar radiation reflected from the Earth back to space
Climate sensitivity refers to
the amount of warming that would occur given a doubling of atmosphere CO2 concentration
An explanation of an aspect of the natural world based on observation, experimentation, and reasoning, especially one that has been extensively tested is a: -theory -law -hypothesis
theory
During the last 800,000 years: - ice volume changes have been highest in the Southern Hemisphere. - there has been little change in climate. - there has been a pattern of roughly 100,000-year cycles of climate change. - Earth has had five ice ages.
there has been a pattern of roughly 100,000-year cycles of climate change.
In order to be considered a SCIENTIFIC THEORY, an idea must be:
thoroughly tested over a considerable time period and be verified by many observations
According to Dire Predictions, there is an association between the increase in sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone powerfulness. - true - false
true
As one goes further back in time in the climate record...
uncertainty increases and resolution decreases
Which of these is most certain in regards to global climate change? - the Earth will continue to warm over the next century - unusually rapid warming has occured over the past century - No answer text provided. - extreme weather event will become more frequent - atmosphere GHG concnetrations will continue to rise over the next century
unusually rapid warming has occured over the past century
How does the period of 20th century warming differ from past warming periods of the past 8000 years such as the Midieval Warm Period? - warming is now occurring globally, across all regions - the current warming is effecting ecosystems and events in human history - the 20th century warming is continuous - the degree of warming (about 1 C) is much larger than in the past
warming is now occurring globally, across all regions
El Nino
warming of the pacific ocean surface - allows more heat to escape into space = decrease in burial heat below surface
Which of the following about El Nino is correct? - El Nino is the only teleconnection that occurs in our climate system - all models predict that El Nino conditions will occur during the fall of 2014 - you can take a class in the Geography Department to learn more about El Nino and other teleconnections - the impacts of El Nino are confined to the tropical Pacific Ocean
you can take a class in the Geography Department to learn more about El Nino and other teleconnections
