Complex problems Exam 1

The objective of the first eight steps in hypothesis testing is to generate as few plausible hypotheses as possible

False

Risk

Gambling. Risk is defined as unknowns that have measurable probabilities.

Anchoring bias

Pick first satisfactory solution and satisfice, only examine evidence to support this view

PrOACT

Pr- Problems Define the problem forcing you take make a decision O- Objectives Understand what you need and want as a result of making the decision A- alternatives Identify the different options or choices for your decision C- Consequences Understanding the effects of the choosing one alternative over the others T- Trade offs Seeing what you are gaining and losing with each alternative

Anchoring bias refers to a situation where one picks the first satisfactory solution and satisfies only examining evidence to support this initial view.

True

Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way decisions were made- the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right informations was not collected, the costs and benefits were most accurately weighed

True

Confirmation bias or confirming evidence trap leads us to seek out information supporting an existing preference and to discount opposing information.

True

The aim of hypothesis testing is to overcome confirmation bias, anchoring bias, and representatives bias

True

The heart of hypothesis testing is to seek to disconfirm or disprove hypotheses

True

Uncertainty

War. Involves unknowns with no measurable probability of outcome. These concepts are related, but not the same.

Weighted Matrix (advantages)

You can attach weights of importance, sensitivity analysis. You can see what changes as you change the numbers

Weighted Matrix (disadvantages)

You can be bias and change the numbers to your liking, also difficult to explain to others on how you reached your decision.

Representativeness bias

bias-stereotypes

consequences (Disadvantages)

can not attach weights so ever thing is equal , it is as good as the level of effort you out in to it

consequences (Advantages)

easy to explain and to show how you reached a decision to other people

Confirmation bias

only looking for evidence to support your presumed outcome

Hypotheses Testing

testing what has not been shown as true