CRIM 310 Final

Background on current national security and geopolitical situations from an IC vantage point

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The form, function, and general capabilities of the IC

- 17 Agencies - Headed by ODNI - The intel community uses the intel cycle - Protect national security - Turn info into intel

Indicators/Signposts of Change

- A pre-established list of observable events that are periodically reviewed to track events, spot emerging trends, and warn of unanticipated change. - As a stand-alone tool or paired with other techniques; for example, to help determine which scenario is emerging. They also help "depersonalize" an argument by shifting attention to a set of objective criteria.

Perceptual Biases

- A psychological tendency to lose objectivity of people and perceptions - EX; Eye witness testimony, which is notoriously unreliable because of perception biases that can affect the way people remember and talk about the crimes they witness.

Scenarios Analysis

- A systematic exploration of multiple ways a situation can develop when there is considerable substantive uncertainty. - In the initial stages of policy formulation. Also when a situation is viewed as too complex or the outcome too uncertain to trust a single-point.

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

- A tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring the identification of a complete set of alternative explanations, the systematic evaluation of each, and the selection of the one that fits best by focusing on evidence that tends to disconfirm the hypotheses. - When an overarching analytic framework is needed to capture all possible hypotheses and there is a robust flow of data to absorb and evaluate. Useful for dealing with controversial issues, especially when denial and deception are a concern.

Key Assumptions Check

- An explicit exercise to list and challenge the key working assumptions underlying the basic analysis. - List your key assumptions as you begin a project. Key assumptions can also be reviewed once the draft is completed or as part of the coordination process.

Brainstorming

- An unconstrained group process for generating new ideas and concepts. - In the early stages of conceptualizing a problem or as a mechanism to break free from a prevailing mindset.

Devil's Advocacy

- Challenging a single, strongly held view or consensus by building the best possible case for an alternative explanation. - Best performed just before sending the paper out for coordination or presenting key conclusions to senior management. Also helpful when there is widespread consensus on a critical issue.

Detecting Deception

- Checklists analysts can use to know when to look for deception, whether it exists and how to avoid being deceived. - When the analysis hinges on a critical piece of evidence, the adversary has a lot to gain and little to lose, and accepting the new data would require changing key assumptions or expending/diverting major resources.

High Impact/ Low Probability Analysis

- Developing a case for a seemingly unlikely event that would have major consequences for US interests if it happened. - To sensitize analysts and policymakers to the potential impact of seemingly low probability events and stimulate them to think early on about how to respond.

Biases in Evaluation Evidence

- Evaluation of evidence is a crucial step in analysis, but what evidence people rely on and how they interpret it are influenced by a variety of extraneous factors. - For example, evidence presented in vivid and concrete detail often has unwarranted impact, whereas people tend to disregard abstract or statistical information.

Collection Disciples

- HUMINT - GEOINT - SIGINT - MASINT - OSINT

Outside-In Thinking

- Identifying the full range of basic forces, factors, and trends that would have an indirect impact in shaping an issue and incorporating this into the analysis. - In the early stages when an analyst is trying to identify all the factors that could influence how a particular situation will develop.

Requirements

- Information needs, what we must know to safeguard the nation - Established by NSC - Reviewed quarterly by DNI - Reflect policy priorities - Current priority system based on NIPF (under GWB 2003)

Structured Analytic Techniques

- Key Assumptions Check - Scenarios Analysis - Indicators/Signposts of Change - High Impact/ Low Probability Analysis - What If? Analysis - Outside-In Thinking - Detecting Deception - Brainstorming - Red Cell Analysis (Red Hat) - Devil's Advocacy - Team A/Team B Analysis - Team A/ Team B Debate - Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Why do people spy?

- MICE - Money - Ideology - Compromise or coercion - Ego

Transnational issues

- Narcotics - Borders - Public corruption - Economic espionage - Theft of Intellectual Property

17 Agencies that make up the IC

- Office of the Director of National Intelligence - Air Force Intelligence - Army Intelligence - Central Intelligence Agency - Coast Guard Intelligence - Defense Intelligence Agency - Department of Energy - Department of Homeland Security (OIA) - Department of State - Department of the Treasury - Drug Enforcement Administration - Federal Bureau of Investigation - Marine Corps Intelligence - National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency - National Reconnaissance Office - National Security Agency - Navy Intelligence

Biases

- Perceptual Biases - Biases in Evaluation Evidence - Biases in Estimating Probabilities - Biases in Perceiving Causality

Red Cell Analysis (Red Hat)

- Predicting the behavior of another individual or group by trying to replicate how that person or group thinks by putting yourself "in their shoes." - When trying to predict the behavior of a specific person who has the authority to make decisions.

Components of Intelligence Cycle

- Requirements - Collection - Planning and Direction - Processing and Exploitation

What If? Analysis

- Taking as a given that an event has occurred with potential major impact on US interests and then explaining how it came about. - When analysts are having difficulty getting the intelligence and policymaking communities to consider the potential for a High Probability/Low Impact event to occur or when the issue is highly politicized.

Team A/Team B Analysis

- The use of independent analytic teams to contrast two (or more) strongly held views or competing hypotheses. - Most useful when there are competing views within the analytic or policy communities or a single, strongly held view that needs to be challenged.

Team A/Team B Debate

- The use of independent analytic teams to contrast two (or more) strongly held views, involving a parallel process of oral presentation and rebuttal. - When time is lacking to do a full-scale Team A/Team B Analysis. Also helps analysts identify key evidence and develop new lines of argumentation.

The history and purpose of the intelligence community

- WWII - National Security Act - 1233 Executive Order (Reagan)

Covert activity

- passively collecting (using disciplines)

The role of the policy maker

-Seek intelligence that supports known policy preferences (Politicization risk) - Intervene in intelligence collection for political reasons

Covert action

Actively trying to influence an outcome - Propoganda - Political activity - Economic activity - Sabotage - Coups - Paramilitary operations

Biases in Estimating Probabilities

Analysts tend to judge the probability of an event by the ease with which they can imagine a relevant instance or similar event.

Collection

Collection is the gathering of raw information based on requirements. Activities such as interviews, technical and physical surveillance, human source operations, searches, and liaison relationships result in the collection of intelligence.

Counterintelligence

Efforts taken to protect one's own intelligence operations from penetration and disruption by hostile nations or their intelligence services

Biases in Perceiving Causality

Events are seen as part of an orderly, causal pattern. Randomness, accident and error tend to be rejected as explanations for observed events.

What is intelligence

Information that has been analyzed and refined so that it is useful to policymakers in making decisions - specifically, decisions about potential threats to our national security

Analysis and Production

Integrate, evaluate, analyze, and prepare the processed information for inclusion in the finished product. This step transforms raw data into applicable products, separating "information" from "intelligence."

Intelligence as a product

Intelligence can be thought of as a product of these processes

Intelligence as a process

Intelligence is the means by which certain types of information are required, requested, collected, analyzed and disseminated

MASINT

Measurements and signatures (radiation)

Understand and describe examples and key drivers of nation states vs transnational issues

Nation state - policy of containment - internal stability - regional stability - threat to allies - refuge for threats - global economic control Transnational - Detect - Disrupt - Dismantle - Chatter - Computer Network Exploitation - Attribution - Insider Threat

Nation states

Other countries, China, North Korea, Iran, etc

Processing and Exploitation

Processing and Exploitation involves converting the vast amount of information collected into a form usable by analysts.

Predication

Reasonable suspicion is established when info exists that can be relayed to law enforcement that an individual or group in involved in criminal activity

Dissemination

The last step is the distributing of raw or financial intelligence to the consumers whose needs initiated the intelligence requirements.

Planning and Direction

The management of the entire investigatory cycle

Intelligence as an organization

The units that carry out the various functions within the larger community

GEOINT

geographical intelligence

HUMINT

human intelligence

OSINT

open source intelligence (facebook, public records)

SIGINT

signal intelligence (electronics)