ENVR 201 Final

Results of computer modelling exercise

-Assume exponential growth in population and resource consumption within an assumption of fixed resource limit (for nonrenewable resources) and arable land but also assume crop/food yields (production per unit area) - Both positive feedback loops (self reinforcing) and negative feedback loops (self regulating) - Positive feedback loops can sometimes lead to desirable effects, but many lead to undesirable effects (rice shortage exacerbates the shortage, famine) - Take care of one limit --> bump up against another limit (result is the same: overshoot and collapse unless you control population/economic growth)

Public good

A pure public good is one which is free to reproduce or is otherwise non-rivalous and will be available to everyone because it is non-excludable

Biomass Fuels

Ethanol from: - Cereal, grain, sugar crops - Cellulosic materials - Organic waste materials • Biodiesel from oil-seed crops • Sugar-to-Ethanol • Grain Starch-to-Ethanol • Cellulose-to-Ethanol • Oil-seeds-to-Biodiesel (narrower range)

Property Values and Pollution

PCB contamination in New Bedford (Mendelsohn et al) Compare change in prices for houses sold before and after contamination became public. Control for all other factors affecting home costs. Houses closest to the contaminated area: price declines of $9,000; in area of secondary pollution, declines of $7,000. Total damages to home-owners: $36 million

An urban area can be defined by one or more of the following:

administrative criteria or political boundaries (e.g., area within the jurisdiction of a municipality or town committee), a threshold population size (where the minimum for an urban settlement is typically in theregion of 2,000 people, although this varies globally between 200 and 50,000), population density, economic function (e.g., where a significant majority of the population is not primarilyengaged in agriculture, or where there is surplus employment), or the presence of urban characteristics (e.g., paved streets, electric lighting, sewerage).

EJ and CJ can essentially be thought of as the same concept

at different scales

non-renewable resources

characterized by fixed stock -continue to be depleted with use -renewal can occur, but at such a slow rate that it is negligible -availability is measured in "reserves"

A hedonic regression

estimates the value associated with an improved environment

solution to rebound effect

have to regulate when we improve energy efficiency

Conclusions Biofuels and Transport

liquid biofuels blending -- no air pollution gains GHG changes, environmental claims, cost-effectiveness depend Liquid biomass fuels attractive for transport -- have potential to address energy security, air pollution, climate change Vehicle performance issues; air pollution gains largely lost on blending GHG reductions, costs, highly context specific -- uncertainty Environmental claims, cost-effectiveness have to be evaluated carefully, in terms of fuel-cycle impacts Currently, no more than 5-10% replacement of petroleum deemed feasible (fuel economy improvements might do just as well!!) Proponents place hope in cellulosic feedstocks and wastes, and improved production and conversion processes Serious potential socio-economic and environmental implications of bio-fuels

carrying capacity

maximum population of a given species that can be supported for a sustained time in a given environment given needs of that species and resources provided by that environment

electric car subsidies

might make people buy more cars might not change peoples behavior inefficient

considerations and challenges in choosing policies

mixed messages visibility free-riding capital turnover timescales R+D investment and scale-up sequence commitment rebound effect

are we running out (techno-optimist)

no - human ability to generate new ideas and inventions will always be a great asset in the challenge against resource limits and population growth will only help us by providing more of this ingenuity/knowledge

replacement fertility rate (RFR)

number of children a couple must have to replace themselves

Supporting

nutrient cycling, soil formation, primary production

Discount rate is

the rate of fall over time of the discount factor (ie the negative rate of change of the discount factor)

regulating services

the service provided by natural systems that helps regulate environmental conditions climate regulation flood regulation disease regulation water purification

car windshield view

those who walk and cycle have no say, and those who have a say do not walk

non-renewable, non-substitutable

time, stratospheric ozone

Most people live in

India, China and rest of south-east Asia. Often Very Densely populated.

SUSTAINABILITY

"...every generation should leave water, air and soil resources as pure and unpolluted as when it came on earth" "each generation should leave undiminished all the species of animals it found existing on earth"UNESCO Sustainable development presupposes efficient, socially equitable and ecologically sustainable economic development based on a new form of governance that encourages the mobilization and participation of all members of society in the decision-making process. Sustainable development is an internationally recognized concept. Montréal subscribes to the definition found in the Bruntland Commission report (the World Commission on Environment and Development, 1989).

JEVONS PARADOX

"Backfire" or "Jevons effect" - increase in overall energy use related to efficiency gains. Increasing fuel efficiency by 50% results in more than 50% increase in use. "It is a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth." Jevons 1865 The Jevons Paradox takes many forms: Because of improvements in refrigerator efficiency, consumers can afford more and larger refrigerators. Because of improvements in vehicle efficiency, car owners can afford to drive more miles per year. Because of improvements in airtightness, window performance, and insulation techniques, homeowners can afford to build larger houses. As Joseph Tainter explains in the forward to The Myth of Resource Efficiency, "An action taken to conserve resources reduces the cost of daily life to such an extent that entirely different kinds of environmental damage become affordable."

Related modern tool: contingent choice

"Choice experiments" consist of a series of hypothetical binary choices.

Climate Justice:

"Climate justice links human rights and development to achieve a human-centered approach, safeguarding the rights of the most vulnerable and sharing the burdens and benefits of climate change and its resolution equitably and fairly. Climate justice is informed by science, responds to science and acknowledges the need for equitable stewardship of the world's resources" Mary Robinson Foundation Climate Justice

Other sustainability perspectives

"Deep Ecology" "Wilderness ethic" Environmental Justice Climate Justice

EWING ET AL.

"Growing Cooler" Need to reduce GHG by 60 to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 Transport: -vehicle efficiency -fuel content -VMT (first two are more understood than the last) What can cities do? -Density bonuses -Smart Location Tax Credit -Housing within reach -Importance of VMT reductions (separate from fuel efficiency) -Walkable neighbourhoods - complete streets etc. -Modernize zoning -Location-efficient -Infill development "Drive 'till you qualify" Solutions: -Smart Location Tax Credit -Housing Rehabilitation Tax Credit -Bring VMT reduction targets (in addition and separate from GHG-reduction targets) to goals and targets -Beyond 'predict and provide' transport planning Move people not cars

Revealed preferences: Property value evaluation of consumer surplus

"Hedonic regression" uses the change in price from related (complementary) goods to infer a WTP for a healthier environment

Indicators

"Quantitative measures selected to assess progress toward or away from a stated goal"

REBOUND

"Rebound" or "chain reaction"? Not just energy use - what about replacing old appliances? Embedded energy What happens to old appliances - garage ("beer") fridges? Total amount of refrigerated space Buy a new car or use old one less? What effect has increased efficiency had on car use? Comfort of cars led to less car-pooling? Carpooling has decreased by 50% since 1980 Between 1993 and 2005 energy efficiency of AC rose by 28% Energy use of AC went up 37% 40% of all food is thrown away What gets thrown away? Embedded energy

Strong sustainability

"Strong" = manufactured and natural capital "are really not substitutes but complements"

Rationale and Outline Urban Transport in India

"Sustainability" - global scale, long term view; the importance of the other 80-95% of the world Rapid motor vehicle growth in the global South, with serious impacts at multiple scales; India as a case study Nuanced, contextually grounded understanding Differences in motorization, impacts, contributory factors, contextual characteristics, possibilities, barriers, challenges, policy approaches No one size fits all solutions Environment as if people mattered

Satisfaction with life (SWL)

"Taking all things into account, how satised are you with your life these days, on a scale from 0 to 10?" not how are you feeling at the moment not what makes for a satisfying life How do people make this cognitive evaluation?

Environmental (In)Justice:

"The disproportionate pollution burdens in areas primarily inhabited by disadvantaged ethnic groups."

How overcapacity drives overfishing

"Too many fishers on too many boats with too many hooks and nets are taking too many fish from the sea" p.7 • Open access regimes • Technological - conversion of naval vessels and technology (sonar etc.) • Factory ships - processing, packing, refrigeration - dramatically increased the time, distance, area that ships could cover • 9/10 of biomass is estimated to have been extracted

Weak sustainability

"Weak" = manufactured capital can substitute for natural capital Substitutions between produced and natural capital are possible Machines, buildings, roads, knowledge can be traded off with natural capital Future generations will thank us for leaving this human-made capital

Goals

"broad, but specific qualitative statements about objectives"

ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF CITIES

"urban sustainability multiplier" "Unconscious environmentalism" Increased density reduces the footprint associated with housing type and transport by 40%

The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as existing:

"when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". includes both physical and economic access to food that meets people's dietary needs as well as their food preferences. In many countries, health problems related to dietary excess are an ever increasing threat, In fact, malnutrion and foodborne diarrhea are becoming double burden.

CASE STUDY: CA SB 827

(Failed) Bill to allow increases allowable building heights within walking distance of transit. NIMBY, YIMBY, and PHIMBY What level of policy making and planning can make a difference? Importance of transport and land use interactions, affordability of housing, who can afford to live in a walkable, transit-friendly neighbourhood? San Francisco created only one new home per 6.8 new jobs between 2010 and 2015 comaared to the period from 2005-2010 (which includes the recession), when homes beat out jobs by 1.6:1. SB 827 says that, for areas close to "major transit stops" and "high-quality transit corridors", local governments cannot impose any of the following on residential development: Parking minimums. Density (or housing units per parcel) maximums. Arbitrary design restrictions (e.g. of the form "this building isn't pretty enough"). In addition, SB 827 says that in areas very close to transit (a quarter mile from a high frequency bus line or one block quarter mile from a major transit stop), local governments have to allow buildings of at least 55 feet height on narrow streets and 85 feet height on wider streets. In areas at least half a mile from a "major transit stop", local governments have to allow buildings of at least 45 feet height on narrow streets and 55 feet height on wide streets. On the map above, the green overlay represents areas that might have 55/85 foot heights under SB 827, and the blue overlay represents areas that might have 45/55 foot heights under SB 827.

WHAT IS "JUST" SUSTAINABILITY?

*'the need to ensure a better quality of life for all, now and into the future, in a just and equitable manner, whilst living within the limits of supporting ecosystems'* (Agyeman et al . 2003, 5). sustainability . . . cannot be simply a 'green', or 'environmental' concern, important though environmental' aspects of sustainability are. A truly sustainable society is one where wider questions of social needs and welfare, and economic opportunity are integrally related to environmental limits imposed by supporting ecosystems. Agyeman et al . 2002, 78

Vicious to Virtuous Circle

*Ever growing motor vehicle ownership and use is not inevitable* *Policy important -- minimize need for MV, restore accessibility, De-link ownership from use, Restrict personal motor vehicles to their most highly valued uses, create synergy, plan for multiple road users* *Problem is excessive use of MV and neglect of pedestrians* -- Socio-cultural factors ... and yes, BARRIERS .... BUT Choices and decisions shaped by circumstances and institutions -SO, POLICY IS IMPORTANT Personal motor vehicles fulfill mobility needs for millions The problem is NOT Personal motor vehicles and infrastructure for them, but their excessive use, and the neglect of pedestrians PEOPLE, NOT CARS - Prioritize most vulnerable, sustainable modes -- Motor vehicles function adequately in NMT friendly environments, NOT other way around Minimize need for travel by motor vehicles -- Problem avoidance, not end-of-pipeline cure Restore accessibility, natural advantage, as foundation of Urban Transport Policy Urban transport policy ought to: - De-link ownership from use - Restrict personal motor vehicles to their most highly valued uses By providing for a wide range of choices Rather than privileging mobility for the few, ensuring accessibility for all Address multiple dimensions and impacts to generate synergies Plan for multiple road users - COMPLETE STREETS All will benefit, including car users

The aggregation problem

*Over individuals* Externalities. Fairness. Who? With what weight? What is equity? *Over time* What is something worth in a week? One year? How much does the future, or its inhabitants, matter to us? Do they need help, or do we? *Over possible outcomes* Risk and uncertainty

Innate vs consumption discounting

*Overall question: how much do you care about someone in the future having a certain good* (e.g. one extra fish)? This may be needed in order to compare with how much you value you having one extra fish today. What is the value of future utility? ie how much do you care at all about the future person's well-being? As much as your own? Half as much? =) Pure time preference (i.e., intrinsic discount rate) What is the utility of future marginal consumption? ie how much does the future person value having the extra fish? =) Discount factor

Cap and trade in Quebec: timeline

*decades...* 98% of electricity and 50% of total energy in Quebec is from renewables. *2006-2012* Carbon Levy 4$/tCO2e *2008* Quebec joins the WCI *2008-2010* WCI partners establish operating rules *2009* Quebec implements 2020 target of 20% below 1990 *Dec 2011* Regulation respecting C&T system adopted *Nov 2011* WCI Inc founded *2012* Emitters of >10 ktCO2e must report *Dec 2012* 2013-2020 period defined. *2013* Compliance period 1 begins: 79 emitters of >25 ktCO2e aected; coverage: 28% *2014* CA-QC linkage begins on January 1 *2015* Compliance period 2 begins: 45 fuel distributors affected; Carbon Levy ends; coverage: 85% *2018-2020* Compliance period 3

Non-material trends

*other social variables change.* left is worst case (10% of worst cases observed) *3.5-6.9* Independent of how material situations have changed in countries, other social situations have also changed (degree to which people feel connected to others, etc.) change independently of income change If modelling future (effects of climate change, etc.) and care about human life quality, we need to think about social impacts to ensure we're somewhere on the green range of graph

The gap between policy and reality

*pedestrians 3rd class citizens* *not about research, abilities or will; instead about attitudes and priorities* *decision makers not pedestrians* *public sense of inevitability, indifference*

demography: population dynamics

- Historical, present, and future trends and characteristics - Causes, consequences (social, economic, resource, and environmental impacts), and policies (to address these impacts) - Applications (practical, social-economic resource use, planning) - Health policies for cases of aging populations

Ecosystem services

- Regulating - Cultural - Provisioning - Supporting Conceptualizes the functions of nature as a service to humanity Various types of value: Use (Direct (consumptive/non-), Indirect) Option Non-use (e.g. Bequest, Existence) Global total (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment): similar magnitude to GWP Payment for flows of Ecosystem Services

Key Themes urban transport:

- Transport-Land Use Cycle - Induced Demand o Triple Convergence - Transport Energy Stats - Policies related to transport - "Carrots and Sticks"

There is a growing use of SWB in indicators

---

Example: PM in Europe

--> What is the effect of an "extra" bit of pollution? --> There are many correlations between pollution and any given outcome. Dechezlepretre, Rivers, Stadler (2018, unpublished): Effect of air pollution on productivity in Europe

Humans through time:

-0 AD: 300 million. Southern Europe, Africa, middle-east, India and China -1000 AD: 310 million. Similar population spread, but also people in Mexico and central America. grew less than 0.1 percent each year. Black Plague. But beginning in the late 18th century, the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth. -1800 AD: 1 billion people: 65% in asia (mostly india and china) 21% in Europe and some in Africa. 1% in north America -1927: 2 Billion people: Similar spread as today, but less in LIC's and North America. Growth rate ~1%/yr Starting to see growth due to better health care (antibiotics invented) -1960: 3 billion people. Medicine, agriculture, sanitation. *All time high growth rate of 2.04 %/year. * -1974: 4 billion: Growth rate lower do to contraceptives, but still more and more humans due to growth momentum -1987: 5 billion -1999: 6 billion. Europe and africa 12% of people, 9% latin america, 5% north america, 61% asia -2050: 9 billion people: growth mostly in LIC's - very strained resources

Urbanization through time:

-1800: 5% -1900: 40% -2000: 80% of people live in urban areas - quite linear growth since mid 1800s

How are indicators constructed?

-Data availability -Spatial and temporal scale -Importance of logic and consistency among goals, indicators, and targets. -What gets measured, gets prioritized (transport planning examples)

Second Agricultural Revolution

-Occurred along with the industrial revolution - both as a cause and a result in a cyclic manner -Higher demands from increasing industrial and urban population -Commercial Food Market and transportation technology -Shift away from feudal and subsistence agriculture -New crops from colonies: tomato, corn, potato Transportation Technology

Environmental Impacts of Industrial Agriculture

-Soil erosion and loss of soil fertility - especially in Africa/Asia -Loss of genetic diversity - more vulnerable to diseases and pests -Contributing to climate change due to high fossil fuel use, as well as methane and NO2 emissions - will affect LIC's hardest oFossil fuel use both in production and food transportation - 3000-mile Caesar salad and the food cycle -Bio-fuel production accounts for increasing share of coarse grain production -Impacts: o2/3 of water usage world wide is for (inefficient) agriculture oTopsoil take 100-500 years to regenerate oLivestock is responsible for 18% of GHG emissions

Neolithic Revolution/ First Agricultural Revolution

-Transition from hunter-gatherer society to agriculturalists (~10K years ago) -Occurred simultaneously in 4-5 places -New: Plow, draft animals, irrigation, seed selection, cuttings -Result: Sedentary civilizations!

ogallala

-an aquifer that runs throughout Midwest America -accounts for 30% of irrigation water in USA -being depleted very rapidly -estimates: fully depleted in 50-60 years -once it's gone it's gone

key assumptions of malthusian

-exponential growth (for economy/population) in context of fixed resource limits (resources/land/food yields) -food yield = production per unit area -feedback loops

are we running out according to marxist

-no! -we will be able to sustain growing populations as long as we more evenly distribute resources (and allow better access to them) and continue to have developments in technology/trade

renewable resources

-resources being naturally replenished at non-negligible, useful rate -tend to be held as either public or common property -availability is based on regeneration rate -as well as rate at which they're consumed

recyclable resources

-resources that exist in a form allowing recovery once original purpose is fulfilled

-status of key resources (adapted from Daily and Ehrlich [1992])

-the extent to which resources will be stressed depends on whether they are renewable or non-renewable, as well as if they are substitutable or non-substitutable A sustainable process is one that can be maintained without interruption, weakening, or loss of valued qualities. Sustainability is a necessary and sufficient condition for a population to be at or below any carrying capacity. Maximum sustainable use. The maximum sustainable level of use (MSU) of a resource depends on how it is classified with respect to the preceding attributes and on socioeconomic factors. The maximal sustainable emission rate of a pollutant into the environment (maximum sustainable level of abuse; MSA) is defined as the rate above which unacceptable damage is caused. MSA may be increased in two ways. The first is by manipulation of the distribution of pollutant into concentrations that maximize the removal rate or buffering capacity of the environment. The second is by enhancement of the removal rate by increasing the extent and capacity of systems involved in its removal, be they natural ecosystems or sewage treatment plants. Social dimensions of carrying capacity include lifestyle aspirations, epidemiological factors, patterns of socially controlled resource distribution, the disparity between private and social costs, the difficulty in formulating rational policy in the face of uncertainty, and various other features of human sociopolitical and economic organization. For different reasons, discounting over time and distance both encourage behavior that may reduce carrying capacity for future generations.

Essay on the Principles of Population

-thesis: increasing food production leads people not to increase their wellbeing but to increase population, thus only creating need for more food -power of population > power of Earth -he said population growth would lead to decreased quality of life -what we need: delayed marriage age, celibacy, controls on population growth

marxist

-thought resource scarcity was not the real problem, but simply a distraction from it -distribution of resources is the Real Problem -some people have far too many and some have not enough at all -solution to resource scarcity is distribution of resources more evenly across societies -made possible through government regulations -thought carrying capacity was not a fixed number -carrying capacity can be changed as changes to technology and trade occur -criticism: does not work on macro scale, simply as applied to specific areas/societies -evidence proven by population growth throughout history -population growth levels out, then as new technology develops it begins to grow exponentially again

techno-optimist

-view is that technological innovation can overcome resource limits -so far, even as population skyrockets, we have been more than able to keep up Ex/ wild rubber -as rubber availability fell, creation of synthetic rubber and rubber plantations allowed for its continued use as a resource despite growing needs for it when we realized how much it could be used for -population/economic growth is not a concern, but rather a solution -the ultimate resource is human ingenuity/knowledge! -as long as we have a large supply we will always be able to overcome our problems with resources -control of population/economic growth would be unnecessary, unwise, and immoral

Integrating environmental values

1 *Evaluating* Stated preferences Revealed preferences Engineering approach Causal identication Subjective well-being approach --> Aggregation 2 *Making tradeoffs* No choice about making a choice Static eciency / optimality Dynamic eciency / optimality 3 *Applying our values* Pricing nature Rights-based approach Precautionary / other approaches Policy

Problems with wage-risk valuation of statistical life:

1 Assumes workers have/understand accurate information 2 Sample selection bias 3 Assumes voluntary and involuntary risks have same value 4 Puts a much larger value on life in rich than in poor countries. 5 Statistical life ≠ individual life

Review of Measuring Current Benefits Methods to know

1 Contingent valuation 2 Revealed preferences from purchasing priced goods in the market Travel cost method Property value (hedonic regression) method Wage-risk method 3 Engineering approach 4 Causal identication Life satisfaction approach

Two roles for economics:

1 Evaluate; identify preferred collective outcome 2 Policy "instruments" to get there

Stated preferences: "contingent valuation" (CV) of consumer surplus Sources of Error in CVs:

1 Free-riding 2 Strategic Bias 3 Framing Bias

Monbiot's issues with "pricing nature"

1 How do you come up with a price? 2 It effectively "pushes the natural world even further into the system that is eating it alive." 3 The role of power is left out of these discussions 4 Values and framing His solution: mobilize!

Key messages regarding carbon pricing

1 Most of the world currently has, effectively, one of the two policies: a tax. But the tax is zero. 2 An uncertain policy future is worst of all. (It can give fossil resource extraction companies the incentive to extract faster, since the option may shortly disappear. (Ironically, gradual climate policies can also do this.)) 3 Carbon taxes and caps can co-exist. They can also be blended. 4 We need price certainty in the short term. We need emissions (quantity) certainty on the longer term.

Well-being and sustainability: solutions Four ways that "happiness" economics addresses sustainability issues:

1 Properly valuing social goods vs material consumption 2 Properly accounting for the comparison rat race 3 Importance of social capital, engagement, and process for building resilient communities and populations 4 Framing and communication, in making paradigm-shifting changes sound less daunting.

Summary: we've discussed several different kinds of discounting

1 Pure time preference ("How much do I care about the future?") 2 Effect of being richer (having higher consumption or at least productivity) in the future ("Do they need our money?! Should we be sorry for them or us?!") 3 Cost of capital (market return on alternative projects) (This is the interest rate: it's relevant to individuals making decisions, as opposed to societies making decisions.) 4 Inflation (This is irrelevant to all of the above, and is usually already corrected for (removed) in all of the above.)

What have we learned from understanding life satisfaction?

1 Strengthen civil society and active citizenship, participation and engagement 2 Limit materialistic advertisement 3 Foster happiness-boosting use of time 4 Reduce unemployment 5 Focus the health sector on complete health 6 Need more measurements, still! 7 Doing good is rewarding 8 People underestimate trustworthiness 9 Process matters 10 Turn problem-management into positive-outcome building

some sample policies

1 fisheries, planning 2 Mcgill's sustainable travel policy 3 banning of lead in petrol 4 electric car subsidies 5 beijing's coal-to-electricity program 6 carbon pricing

Easterlin paradox (1974)

1 within each country, richer residents tend to be happier than poorer residents, but 2 countries don't get happier over time as they get richer Two theories: 1 adaptation to changes 2 comparison with peers -"Keeping up with the Joneses" -conspicuous consumption -consumption externality -Veblen effect -consumption "rat race" -hedonic treadmill

Five mental traps plaguing thought about our future

1. Focus on economic growth 2. Let people figure out what's good for them 3. People suck 4. Environment vs. human welfare 5. Disaster is coming

The Great Transition

1. Pursue human well-being 2. Strict constraints to slow impacts on natural/ material systems 3. This can be done while improving life for all

Classification of progress measures for happiness

1. accounting 2. life satisfaction 3. indices and social indicators

Two aspects to our social nature revealed by happiness research

1. being with others, helping others, trusting others, belonging to groups: all improve our lives as much as nearly anything else 2. material standards and norms set by others through conspicuous consumption affect our aspirations and standards

At USA density: fit everyone in

1.5 earths

Scarcity-Development Cycle

1.new resources "created" 2.prices fall, demand rises 3.easily accessible reserves exhausted 4.scarcity 5.prices rise, stimulating R&D 6.innovations lead to substitution, reuse, recycling 7.cycle begins again

Livestock use __ of US water

1/2

__ of energy use in US used in agriculture towards livestock

1/2

__ of fish catch converted to fish meal and fed to livestock

1/3

Excluding Antarctica and Greenland, humans use ___ of the earth's surface to grow crops, and ___ to raise livestock

11%, 25%

cattle belch out ___ of methane

12-15%

__% of us cropland used for vegetables for human consumption

2

"How many people can the earth support?"

2.5 billion at the U.S. level of consumption (800 kg/person/year) 5 billion at Italian level (400 kg/person/year) 10 billion at Indian level (200 kg/person/year)

Land for 1 meat eater = land for __ vegetarians

20

Ethanol -- Vehicle Compatibility, Performance, Emissions

25% lower fuel economy can add 20% to gas need >20% EtOH for EtOH engines corrosion, etc. lower emissions but not if gasohol -- Fuel economy on volume basis 25% lower -- 1.25L gives same mileage as 1 L gasoline Up to 20% ethanol in gasohol, no mileage penalty, despite lower energy content Dedicated engines needed to run on blends above 20% ethanol Toxicity/Handling -- Corrosion; materials compatibility; separate infrastructure Ethanol produces lower emissions, except (controllable) aldehydes - but advantages lost for gasohol blends

In 2010, __ people lived in areas classified as urban according to UNICEF

3.5 billion

Meat pie: avg. ___ km/ingredient and ___ grams of CO2 per pie

4240, 109

beijing's coal-to-electricity program

4th leading cause of disease subsidizes electric space heating heat pumps bans coal subsidizes nighttime electricity deployed village-by-village 2016-2020 3700 villages throughout municipality impacts >7.9 million rural dwellers

Land Use-Climate Change Linkages

5% displacement of gasoline - 5% cropland in EU; 8% in USA; 5% displacement of diesel -- 15% cropland in EU, 13% in USA Soil degradation, water use, pollution, biodiversity loss Land use changes to produce bio-fuels - GHG impacts over long term ignored (Searchinger et al 2008) - Gallagher Report notes this finding: Increased biofuel demand --> forests and grasslands cut down and plowed for biofuel production --> carbon stored in plants and soils released and on-going sequestration due to plant growth reduced Also, diverting other crops and croplands to biofuel --> increased crop prices --> forests and grasslands cleared to grow displaced crops -- eg. soya prices --> increased clearing of Brazilian rainforest As more corn and wheat diverted to biofuel in USA/Europe --> Exports go down --> Corn and wheat production has to be increased elsewhere --> more land use because of lower yields Energy security, climate, food security trade-offs - World Bank report

OECD material projections

5.5-6.2. pretty small

__ of cropland feeds livestock, ___ of grain

50%, 38%

doubling time

70 / annual growth rate in %

food as ex of resources

80,000 edible plants - 3000 used - 175 cultivated - 16 for food needs

__% of topsoil loss attributed to livestock grazing

85

We have thousands of edible plants and animals but are supplied with

90 % of our food from 8 animal species and 15 plant species.

CBR

= annual # of live births per 1000 population (b)

ITQ

A fishery management program in which individual fishers are given a total allowable catch of fish in a season that they can either catch or sell.

Review Urban Transport

A focus on 'Accessibility' favors shorter distances between origins and destinations (mixing residential and commercial land use) A focus on 'Mobility' focuses on increasing speeds and flows of people (usually people in cars) Land use and transport interaction is key - shouldn't be analyzed separately Land use changes can shorten travel distances and encourage active modes

• Private good

A good that could be easily privatized because it is excludable and is sensibly owned by an individual because it is rivalrous

Non-excludable

A thing is excludable if it is hard to stop any given person from using it or consuming it

Excludable

A thing is excludable if its properties are conducive to controlling its use

Non-rivalrous

A thing is non-rivalrous when its use by one person doesn't diminish the possibility of others using it too

Rivalrous

A thing is rivalrous if it cannot be (fully) used or enjoyed by more than one person at once

Accessibility vs. Mobility

Accessibility: the ease of reaching desired destinations Population-based: % of population within 5 minutes walk to bus stop Location-based: # of jobs accessible from location within 30 drive Ex. Manhattan Mobility: the ease of traveling through a transport network vehicles per hour Average time lost in gridlock Example: Manitoba Fast speeds, few destinations

Hardin: Comments and critique II

Adam Smith did not assert that this was invariably true, and perhaps neither did any of his followers. But he contributed to a dominant tendency of thought that has ever since interfered with positive action based on rational analysis, namely, the tendency to assume that decisions reached individually will, in fact, be the best decisions for an entire society. Yes, Adam Smith is misunderstood and misquoted. (Like Hardin?) A hundred and fifty years ago a plainsman could kill an American bison, cut out only the tongue for his dinner, and discard the rest of the animal. He was not in any important sense being wasteful. Doubtful!

Biocentrism

All and only living organisms have intrinsic value. Lifeless matter and energy can have, at best, only instrumental value for organisms.

Zoocentrism

All animals able to experience pleasure, or happiness, have intrinsic value. Other organisms can have only instrumental value for sentient animals, if that.

Anthropocentrism

All humans have intrinsic value. All other animals have only instrumental value for humans, or no value at all.

Inflation

All of this discussion so far has nothing to do with inflation (it is "removed" from most data in advance of any discussion or analysis). That is: real interest rate = bank interest rate - inflation

Ecocentrism

All organisms, species, and ecosystems have irreducible intrinsic value. Lifeless matter and energy can have, at best, only instrumental value for organisms, species, or ecosystems.

Cosmic universalism

All organisms, species, and ecosystems, and even lifeless matter and energy, have intrinsic value.

Engineering approach: replacement cost Benefits? or costs?

Another class of evaluation methods involves adding up the cost of an "engineering" solution. Cost of replacing an ecosystem service e.g.: commercial pollination servies Cost of adapting to environmental damage; cost of complying with needed environmental legislation e.g. cost of building levees/dikes, repairing from a flood, or of abiding by a new environmental regulation e.g. important in benefit/cost analysis of environmental legislation or climate change mitigation. Central for Ecosystem Services evaluation

What's wrong with directly regulating emissions? (ex.: announce that every factory must reduce emissions by 10% / yr, every year, to 0 in 10 years)

Answer 1: because there is a more efficient (cheaper) way to get the same emissions: some places could reduce more than 10% per year really easily. And some would find it hard. How can we make sure that the low-hanging fruit (easy reductions) are done as fast as possible, and the harder ones done at whatever maximum pace is practical? Answer 2: that's a very fast transition. It might cause more mayhem/harm/disruption (labour / income / consumption /strife / etc) than the environmental damage would. So think about costs versus benefits. Slightly slower might be better, overall.

Why don't we go carbon neutral tomorrow?

Answer: Think about costs versus benefits. A disruption that catastrophic could, as well as failing, leave society so weakened that it is less able to respond positively to climate and other challenges than before the attempt.

Attitudes

Attitudes - cars, not people, have right of way Public perceptions and media representations - If the West can have cars, why can't we? - It is not the job of governments to stand in the way of people buying cars and using them - Pedestrians cross wherever they want, and are unruly, because that is how they are - Parking control is "socialism"

Background Questions Urban Transport

Are the Dutch and the Danes predisposed to cycle? Is it part of their "culture"? Are North Americans too 'lazy', and 'selfish' and not environmentally aware enough to give up their car-dominant lifestyle? Are North American policy, real estate markets, car manufacturers etc. a response to people's needs and desires? In other words, is it simple market forces?

EMISSIONS MODELLING

Based on Montreal Origin-Destination Survey Takes into account "cold starts", vehicle type, distance travelled, time of travel Household level analysis

*Biofuels and Transport Outline

Bio-fuels case study -- implications for policy analysis and policymaking related to sustainability and environmental policy Multiple dimensions, perspectives, linkages - energy security; vehicle performance; emissions; GHG emissions and climate change; food security and poverty; rural development; waste management; land use change and degradation Trade-offs and conflicts, for various groups Inter-disciplinary, integrated assessment Need to consider particularities of specific contexts Enough technical material to explain issues

BC policy was cutting edge

British Columbia's wasn't ever the highest carbon tax in the world, but it brought in the most consistent and comprehensive one. The province's tax reductions for businesses and families, with dividends for low-income families, set a new standard.

Feeding Seven Billion Well

Brown 2006 farmers are faced with shrinking supplies of irrigation water, rising temperatures, the loss of cropland to nonfarm uses, rising fuel costs, and a dwindling backlog of yield-raising technologies Rise in land productivity is slowing multicropping could help: examples: wheat and corn in N China, wheat and rice in N India, etc. multicropping limited by water and labor rising wages pulls workers away from ag fertilizer doesn't have much effect on crop yields in western world lack of infrastructure to transport fertilizer in places like africa africa: grow grain and leguminous trees need to reduce population and consumption of meat, as well as use of food crops for fuel need to multicrop and increase yield better irrigation, eliminate water and energy subsidies (drip irrigation -- labor intensive and water-efficient) better water pricing move down food chain more water efficient crops and industrial processes and household appliances produce animal protein more efficiently fish are best at converting feed to protein incorporation of soybean meal into feed increased efficiency with which grain is converted to animal protein dairy in india from roughage Ministries of agriculture bear the primary responsibility for expanding food production to satisfy the world's seemingly insatiable appetite.

Objective of sustainability

Brundtland conception: needs satisfaction 1999 UK Sustainable Development Strategy: quality of life 2005 strategy: well-being

Robert Moses

Built: 13 bridges, 416 miles of parkways, 658 playgrounds, and 150,000 housing units, spending $150 billion in today's dollars. Once occupied 12 positions simultaneously: New York City Parks Commissioner, Head of the State Parks Council, Head of the State Power Commission and Chairman of the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority. "Those who can, build. Those who can't, criticize" Issues: Favoured highways over public transit effectively creating suburbs and influenced a generation of engineers and builders to do the same 12 positions gave him lots of power and money

Impact of Fishing Gear

Bycatch: for every kg of shrimp, between 5-15 kg of other species are discarded Reef destruction (trawling, drag nets, poison, dynamite)

"Second generation" biofuels ...

Cellulosic materials and wastes - Access to much higher feedstock levels - Potential for greater displacement of fossil energy - biomass energy for processing; higher GHG reduction - Fast-growing trees and grasses would not compete with food, use land suitable for food crops; lower fertilizer requirements - Rural development; farm incomes - Waste management - municipal, forest, corn stover, bagasse but collection costs and energy ... - But conversion technologies need to be developed ... - And are "waste lands" really so?

Common-pool resources

These goods are rivalrous but cannot be controlled, rationed, or conserved because they are non-excludable

Canada vs Niger CBR, CDR, growth rate in 1980 and 2010

Canada: CBR down slightly, CDR same. Growthrate decreased. Need to import people of working age Niger: CBR down slightly, CDR more than halved. Growthrate increased by 1%. Demographic trap

notable UN population projections

Canada: growing slowly. propped up by immigration Germany: projected to decline Niger: double in 2040. expected to double every 20 years Afghanistan: expected to double in 30 years -- will stabilize 2100

People suck

Compassion for humanity

Mobility planning in action: vicious positive feedback loop

Congestion develops --> residents call for road widening --> road widened (more capacity) --> no congestion on roadway (very short-lived) --> land further out becomes more accessible --> land prices rise, farmers request re-zonings --> land is rezoned --> businesses develop and people move to larger, cheaper homes --> more residents and shoppers travel further --> congestion develops again (demand for road capacity > supply)

Themes urban city planning

Connection between well-meaning planners and landscape architects and "sprawl" "Perverse" outcomes Density and "unconscious environmentalism"

Measuring benefits: consumer surplus

Consumer surplus is another concept useful for evaluating the benefit of a (continuous) choice. Consumer surplus is the difference between what one is willing to pay and what one actually has to pay for a service or a project

Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change

Corn ethanol doubles GHG emissions over 30 yrs and increases GHGs for 167 years -- By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. 1) New crops do not have to replace all corn diverted to ethanol because the ethanol by-product, dry distillers' grains, replaces roughly one-third of the animal feed otherwise diverted. 2) As fuel demand for corn increases and soybean and wheat lands switch to corn, prices increase by 40%, 20%, and 17% for corn, soybeans, and wheat, respectively. These increases modestly depress demand for meat and other grain products beside ethanol, so a small percentage of diverted grain is never replaced. 3) As more American croplands support ethanol, U.S. agricultural exports decline sharply (compared to what they would otherwise be at the time) (corn by 62%, wheat by 31%, soybeans by 28%, pork by 18%, and chicken by 12%). 4) When other countries replace U.S. exports, farmers must generally cultivate more land per ton of crop because of lower yields.

● Hyper-innovation

Creating a new device takes away from everyone else who's already selling a device that used to be competitive ○ Externality: designing something that has negative effects on others ○ Hyper-consumptive society ■ Rate of invention is so high that we need to keep relearning technology and decreased satisfaction in what we're buying

Crickets vs beef

Crickets: 2 pounds of feed per pound of meat 1 gallon of water per pound Beef: 25 pounds feed/ lb meat 2,000 gallons of water/ lb meat 100 x more GHG than crickets

ENVIRONMENTAL ELITISM?

Criticisms of "Earth First!" style environmentalism For communities like mine, environmentalism has seemed to be about preserving places most of us will never see. [...] Orson Aguilar (2005)

Ecological Economics

Deals with uncertainty and future heuristically, in accordance with the precautionary principle Physical efficiency rather than Pareto efficiency Allows broader systems to specify scale, seeing economics as a method with constrained scope and context

GUHA

Defining characteristics of "Deep Ecology" Antropocentric-biocentric distinction Preserving unspoilt wilderness at the neglect of other environmental issues Evocation of eastern religions Belief that they are on the "leading edge" of the environmental movement. Critiques of "Deep Ecology" Antropocentric-biocentric distinction: Should 'intervention in nature be guided primarily by the need to preserve biotic integrity rather than by the needs of humans"? Guha identifies 1) overconsumption by the industrialized world and urban elites in the Third World and 2) militarization and ongoing regional wars and nuclear proliferation as the "fundamental ecological problems facing the globe" Is there a connection here to anthro/biocentric dichotomy? Critiques of "Deep Ecology" Preserving unspoilt wilderness : Misses mark as far as what actually impacts the lives of the poor (fuel, fodder, water, soil erosion etc.) Based on a 'New World" view of open spaces Project Tiger as example, pits wealthy elites against rural poor Evocation of eastern religions: Misinterpretation, if not 'colonizing' of Gandhi (as an example) Belief that they are on the "leading edge" of the env. movement Uneasy connections to consumer society/recreational value of nature "America can simultaneously enjoy the material benefits of an expanding economy and the aesthetic benefits of unspoilt wilderness" Examples of Germany (Green party) and India: "Environmental protection per se is of least concern to most of these groups. Their main concern is about use of the environment and who should benefit from it." from Anil Agarwal Quoting J.K. Galbraith: "If we are concerned about our great appetite for materials, it is plausible to seek to increase the supply, to decrease waste, to make better use of stocks available, and to develop substitutes. But what about the appetite itself? Surely this is the ultimate source of the problem. If it continues its geometric course, will it not one day have to be restrained?"

Urban Transport Review Questions

Definitions/Concepts: Induced Demand Triple Convergence Accessibility Mobility What are some unintended consequence of 'mobility'-focused planning? Discuss the connections between highway development and land use change. What does Mumford mean by, "A good transportation system minimizes unnecessary transportation"? What (in your opinion) could change to nudge NA transportation patterns towards a Western European model? What are some of the environmental benefits of increased population density? What challenges face low-income countries with regards to urbanism? What are some of the challenges of attracting families to live in cities? What are some factors that have led to increased urbanism? Sprawl?

niger

Demographic trap: condition in which death rates decrease significantly, but the birth rates will only decrease slightly and remain high --> high rates of population growth ■ Projected to have high rates of population growth

"Green" Revolution / Third Agricultural Revolution

Development of technology and research in the 50s and 60s that vastly increased agricultural production, especially in developing countries Mechanization, synthetic fertilizer and food "manufacturing" (processing, canning, refining, packaging ...) Industrial Agriculture: Modern form of agriculture that makes use of the newest technology and inventions. Usually highly automated and on a very large scale. ♣Fertilizer, hybrid seeds, agrochemicals, artificial substitutes ♣Impacts on rural labour: less farm jobs! - centralized megafarms Export of technology and high-yielding seeds to LICs: ♣Increased crop yields and dwarf varieties - better than "wild crops" mono-cropping, irrigation, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, fast growing Dwarf high-yield rice and wheat

Carrying capacity (K)

Different for each species in a habitat because of that species' particular food, shelter, and social requirements

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Do socially disadvantaged communities have higher exposure levels to transport-related air pollution? Does a polluter-pays situation exist wherein communities that generate high levels of pollution are also exposed to greater concentrations? and, Is there a relationship between the polluter-pays principle and social disadvantage?

Biomass Fuels

Ethanol from: - Cereal, grain, sugar crops - Cellulosic materials - Organic waste materials Biodiesel from oil-seed crops • Sugar-to-Ethanol • Grain Starch-to-Ethanol • Cellulose-to-Ethanol • Oil-seeds-to-Biodiesel (narrower range)

Key concepts for choosing price vs quantity instruments

Environmental (damage cost) risks Transition (mitigation cost) risks

BENEFITS OF NEW CAR AND MOBILITY TECHNOLOGIES

Environmental benefits with electric and autonomous vehicles can only be realized: Individual ownership reduces (or disappears!) Impacts on land use, space devoted to cars (currently 30-40% in NA). Reduce fossil fuel use elsewhere. QC is an exception (50-65% of electricity generated in US and UK, for example comes from fossil fuels). Congestion won't be reduced by making mobility easier on its own, need other land use and behavioral changes. Also need to be aware of other unintended consequences (more or less social contact, physical activity etc.)

Notable features of Quebec's cap and trade policy

Floor and ceilings, which rise at 5%/yr (real) Banking Offsets Green Fund Free allocations Linkage with California - large, CH4-intensive economy, using a foreign currency

Life satisfaction approach

Focuses on experienced human well-being rather than production Translates subjective response to economic measure by comparing impacts example: Barrington-Leigh and Behzadnejad, 2017, "Evaluating the short-term cost of low-level local air pollution: a life satisfaction approach"

Main Points about global food

Food and Agriculture have multiple environmental impacts Diet is linked with economic, cultural forces Implications of growing population and dietary changes How can we ensure food security?

Food security is built on three pillars:

Food availability: sufficient quantities of food available on a consistent basis. Food access: having sufficient resources to obtain appropriate foods for a nutritious diet. Food use: appropriate use based on knowledge of basic nutrition and care, as well as adequate water and sanitation.

All engineering "wedges" present the same question: Will saturation or learning dominate? [Pacala and Socolow]

For any strategy, is the second implementation easier or harder to achieve than the first? Learning vs saturation The first million will be built at the more favorable sites. But the second million will benefit from the learning acquired building the first million. The question generalizes to almost all the wedge strategies: Geological storage capacity for CO2, land for biomass, river valleys for hydropower, uranium ore for nuclear power, semiconductor materials for photovoltaic collectors. All present the same question: Will saturation or learning dominate?

Hardin: Tragedy of the Commons

Free rider problem: no cost to using common goods, so nobody wants to suffer personal losses if they don't have to, if others won't Excess demand and shortage of supply, in the end, nobody will get any Solutions: 1. Make the common goods excludable (privatize them) 2. Tax companies so that it is more expensive to pollute than to clean up Welfare state's overbreeding problem needs population control. Containing the commons requires the sacrifice of personal freedoms

Precautionary principle and the environment, Rio

From the Rio Conference, or \Earth Summit," 1992: In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientic certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation. | Principle #15 of the Rio Declaration, 1992

What is a city

Functional (political or administrative boundaries) morphological (paved roads, no farmland etc) population threshold (200-50,000 people - average a couple of thousands) Economic function (where most of the population isn't engaged in agriculture/where there's surplus employment) Definition varies from country to country - comparisons often difficult

material trends

GDP/capita and life expectancy change. pretty small (5.0-6.0)

Transportation choices lead to environmental externalities

GHG emissions are "non-spatial" Pollutants such as NOX, VOCs, and PM, however, have an effect on populations exposed to them

20th Century Planning

Garden Cities (Get everyone out of Manchester and London, put people into garden cities) Broadacre City City Beautiful The Radiant City Urban Renewal (Slum Clearance) Highway Construction (Auto-centric design)

Global Food Status

Global Food production increased 5-fold since 1900 Irrigated area multiplied six-fold Commercial fertilizer use increased nearly 10-fold; pesticide 32-fold since 1950s (40% of food production increase due to fertilizers) Plant genetics and breeding "Dwarf" cereal Global spread of crops - wheat, corn, soya, potato "Green" Revolution: mono-cropping, irrigation, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, fast growing Dwarf high-yield rice and wheat Nutrition improved dramatically since 1950, due to growth in food production/capita (until 1980s), and low prices Despite expanded food availability, nearly 900 million undernourished (simultaneously with an obesity epidemic) Low land access, rural productivity, incomes, purchasing ability 3.1 million nutrition-related deaths under 5 years every year; easily preventable Under/Malnutrition-disease-infant mortality-productivity-poverty population vicious circle Per capita food production, crucial for nutrition and economic productivity, leveling off Because of food supply situation, prices, and threats, profound implications for sustained food security, as population grows Largest population growth in areas with highest malnutrition Global fish and livestock production increased 5- and 3-fold since 1950, but reaching limits; any growth in food supply will have to come from cropland But hunger is not merely a matter of production: Marx, Malthus etc.

Integrated Assessment Model (IAM)

Global climate - economy feedback model This is hard. This is the aggregation problem. Several of these models exist. This is how to calculate the SCC.

Food Security scope

Global: Linked to trade Local: Environmental Justice Issue

Rationale for Alternative Fuels

Great need to control energy consumption, and implement low-carbon alternatives to petroleum, in transport Significant share of urban air pollution Alternative fuels desirable - Energy security, urban air pollution, climate change Good transport fuels, more widely available, can be produced more widely, potential to address climate change Natural gas Bio-fuels - "carbon uptake credit" depending on how efficiently they are produced and used

"A Natural History of Urbanization"

Growth of Urbanization in 19th Century (London passed 1 million mark in 1810) 4 limit to urban growth: Nutritional limit, Military limit, Traffic limit, Power limit Also, rail transport and Industrialization (jobs) Lewis Mumford Roughly 3% of pop was 'urban' in 1800, over 50% today What is Urban? (Defined generally as an incorporated territory with apopulation of at least 2,500) 1900 about 14% with 12 cities above 1 million By 1950, urban pop was 30% and 83 cities had population over 1 million Today, 400 cities over 1 million Megacities over 10 million (3 in 1975 , 16 in 2000, 25 in 2025) Overall, wealthy counties are more urban, but most megacities are in poorer countries Inability of local environments to absorb industrial and human waste "Natural penalty of overconcentration" - exposure to pollutants onlarge scale, also natural disasters, disease outbreaks (cholera etc.) "Green belts" proposed as early as 17th Century Suburbanization Cemeteries as pressure on land

Environmental Economics

Guided by core microeconomic assumptions Focus is on decisions made by individuals with good information and good incentives, with ability to aggregate uncertainty and intertemporal benefits Collective behaviour usually aggregates to good information Missing parts are brought in to correct incentives where they have been identied as misaligned

Hardin critiques

Hardin's 1968 article (cited >27,000 times) has been harshly criticized on a number of grounds: Hardin does not give a shred of evidence for his claims Certain "commons" were managed collectively, successfully, for centuries, without overgrazing There are civilizations (but very few!) that have managed their population successfully for tens of thousands of years (Jared Diamond) There is plenty of evidence for how groups have, in certain situations, managed various kinds of commons (Elinor Ostrom) We have a deeper understanding now of the incentives for and influences on reproduction Hardin used a scientific veneer to promote a White Nationalist (racist, nativist) agenda

Choices about choices...

Have to make a choice "...although ecosystem valuation is certainly difficult and fraught with uncertainties, one choice we do not have is whether or not to do it. Rather, the decisions we make as a society about ecosystems imply valuations (although not necessarily in monetary terms). We can choose to make these valuations explicit or not ... but as long as we are forced to make choices, we are going through the process of valuation" | Costanza et al., 1997, p. 258

Implementation details of carbon policy

Horizon / timeline / ramp Revenue (budget) neutrality "How can it reduce emissions if we are simply paying the money back to households?" Handouts and allowances "How can it reduce emissions if we are giving away permits for free to the large emitters!?" Offsets Commitment

Possibilities and Constraints (UT in India)

High Density, Mixed Land Use ... and Poverty Large Share of Short/Medium Distance Trips Currently, most trips are short or medium trips <2 km trips constitute 40% of trips in all countries and 50% in LIC's o Most travel is for utilitarian purposes i.e. commuting etc. ♣ Redundant? ♣ Dense housing - However, most people still walk or use public transit, especially poor people

Affect balance

How were you feeling yesterday More short term, more cultural variation

affective forecasting

Humans aren't good at predicting their own well-being ■ Best guess is data from other people, not your own intuition ■ We bend our expectations and experiences: poor affective forecasting ■ Inability to predict our own affective (emotional) states ○ We all haven't lived a whole lifetime yet --> only choose a job a few times, make a few important decisions, etc. ■ Seek wisdom from more experienced people

Cost of capital Microeconomic discounting

I have a project that takes N years and, after N years, will pay back Y $ per dollar invested. Will the bank give me a loan to fund the project? If I have the money, should I invest in the project?

Egoism

I have intrinsic value. No other humans have any value, except possibly instrumental value for promoting my good.

'WEAK' AND 'STRONG' SUSTAINABILITY

If "declining capital is an unambiguous indicator of unsustainability"(Elkins et. al.) then the question of substitution becomes paramount. Is "substitution" possible? A proponent of "strong" sustainability would argue NO. A proponent of "weak" sustainability would argue YES.

Environmental (damage cost) risks

If environmental (damage) costs are highly sensitive to the amount of mitigation, we need a quantity control to limit the suffering. These environmental risks are uncertain in the long term (damage costs come gradually over time (climate changes slowly), and what matters environmentally is only the total emissions over decades).

Transition (mitigation cost) risks

If mitigation costs are highly sensitive to the amount of mitigation, we need price certainty to limit the suffering. The costs of mitigation are uncertain in the short term (we know we can decarbonize if were to take sucient time to innovate, etc, but if we impose constraints on production too suddenly, it could cause enormous suffering and even destroy our capacity to keep addressing the problem).

dramatic drop in death rates

Income, nutrition, personal hygiene, public health (clean water and sanitation), and quality & access to health care (related ro rising incomes)

Summary - India vs the West

In the West, high incomes, sprawl, subsidized housing and infrastructure -> rapid increase in MV ownership and use In India, high density, mixed use, high poverty levels -> potentially enable low levels of MV ownership and use, but not inevitably so But with growing urbanization and incomes, MV centred planning, lack of convenient alternatives, easy credit -> rapid growth in MV ownership and use, despite growing congestion Rapid growth - much higher levels of motorization levels at low income levels (relative to countries like Mexico) -- made possible by affordable motorized two- and three-wheeled vehicles This rapid growth despite - and imposed on - a context of high density and poverty --> High level of serious impacts, including equity impacts This high level of serious impacts despite low (although increasing) motorization levels, compared to HICs At same time, high level of PT/NMT use, despite adverse circumstances

Effect of Transportation on Climate Change

Increased GHG emissions lead to climate change (IPCC, 2007) Road transportation is responsible for 42% of GHG emissions on Montreal island (City of Montreal, 2007) Heat waves --> Risk on Vulnerable population with chronic disease Photochemical smog -->Respiratory diseases Increasing the length of the pollen season --> Respiratory diseases

Strategies devised to address overfishing

Individual Transferable Quota (ITQ) • Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) • limited derby or season • reserves • equipment or effort constraints (vessel and crew size, gear, electronic gear and other physical inputs) • taxes • Retraining programs • Selective gear - could reduce discards by nearly 60% (FAO) • Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) (in the case dynamite, cynanide poisoning etc. for the 'live fish market') • Tract-based systems used in Mexico • Call to increase protected ocean from current 0.25% to 20% • Precautionary Principle: "even without scientific proof, society should take action when there is the potential of irreversible consequences"

Conclusion of "How Biofuels could Starve the Poor"

Instead of subsidising biofuels, etc., gov't should increase energy efficiency, promote alternative energy, and invest in research in agricultural productivity and cellulose fuels -- Limiting U.S. dependence on fossil fuels requires a comprehensive energy-conservation program. Rather than promoting more mandates, tax breaks, and subsidies for biofuels, the U.S. government should make a major commitment to substantially increasing energy efficiency in vehicles, homes, and factories; promoting alternative sources of energy, such as solar and wind power; and investing in research to improve agricultural productivity and raise the efficiency of fuels derived from cellulose

Review Questions Urbanism

Is urban growth slower or faster in high income countries compared to low-income countries? What are some of the environmental benefits of increased population density? What challenges face low-income countries with regards to urbanism? What are some factors that have led to increased urbanism? Sprawl? What type of development would minimize environmental impact and maximize human well-being?

Club good

It is natural to share a club good among a group (because it is non-rivalrous) but can feasibly be owned because it is excludable

Kerala experience

Kerala: small state in India that is a serious outlier ○ Socio-cultural, gender, educational, political, economic to address population growth and poverty, at low per capita income levels ○ Kerala, with a fraction of its per-capita income, was to able to achieve almost the same development indicators ■ Much better male: female ratio in Canada, even ■ Kerala has historically had matrilineal systems (property passed from mother to daughter) ■ Can be replicable in conscious policy making today (reducing rapid population growth and poverty alleviation)

Energy use and housing

Less energy for heating/cooling needed for apartments with smaller areas than bigger houses

The Highway and the City

Lewis Mumford (1895-1990) Sociologist and Historian, harsh critic of sprawl. *smaller cars* *re-plan city for pedestrians* *more mass transit* "religion of the motorcar... sense of freedom and power" "minimize unnecessary transportation" "Forget the damned motor car and build the cities for lovers and friends." "What's transportation for?" "bring people or goods to places where they are needed, and to concentrate the greatest variety of goods and people within a limited area, in order to widen the possibility of choice without making it necessary to travel" "townless highways" "Mono-transportation" "the fatal mistake we have been making is to sacrifice every other form of transportation to the private motorcar" Diffusion and concentration

WHAT IS THE "ENVIRONMENT" REVISITED

Links to Guha: Environmental justice activists define the environment as "the place you work, the place you live, the place you play." Many mainstream environmentalists would find this formulation incomprehensible, even ethically indefensible, because of its apparent anthropocentrism. EJ activists maintain that some humans, especially the poor, are victims of environmental destruction and pollution.

Rationale for caring about transport in asia

MV ownership increasing, OECD, BRIC Western countries are already quite motorized, but car ownership is still slowly increasing - especially in the Americas LIC's - especially India and China are expected to have a significant growth in motor vehicle ownership the next years - India: 35% now 50% estimated in 2040 Road transport energy consumption growing most rapidly outside OECD ■ OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (all wealthy countries) ■ Motor vehicle growth-- BRIC ■ Brazil, Russia, India, China ■ MV production, by country ■ China: makes most MVs

Types of capital

Manufactured Human Social/organizational Natural (provision, absorption, life support, amenity services)

Interest rate

Market reflection of the private (as opposed to social) discount rate. opportunity cost of risk-free capital.

Rapidly growing oil dependence in transport

Massive increase in petroleum consumption from transport Transport is heavily dependent on petroleum Difficult to implement alternative energy sources in transport sector

Population Pyramid-- LICs

Massive momentum ■ Characteristic of rapidly growing populations ■ True pyramid shape ■ A dip in males can be linked to military ages

In the "demographic equation", R= (b-d)+(i-e)

Migration and mass mortality are insignificant relative to natural increase at global scale today

Climate / GHG policies

Mitigation, geoengineering, adaptation, mitigation

John Pucher: Urban Travel Behavior as the Outcome of Public Policy

Mode split: Why travel behavior is so different in western Europe (low car usage, high walking/cycling) Public policies are more important than social/cultural preferences in evolution of transportation systems and travel behavior Not just inherent differences in individuals/cultural factors Los Angeles once had one of the most advanced street car systems in the world Copenhagen's cycling modal split was only 8% in the 1960's So what happened? Hypothesis: "I believe that differences in travel behavior are largely due to differences in public policies." "I contend that public policies play a more important role than underlying social or cultural preferences in the evolution of transportation systems and travel behavior in the countries I studied." (p. 510) Tested hypothesis: Variation in income Variation in transit policy Variation in active transportation policy Variation in automobile taxes Variation in parking policy and licensing Variation in roadway subsidies Variation in land use and housing policy Findings and Analysis ■ US: more roads than other countries ■ Colder countries have high gov. roadway expenditures, but not necessarily a high amount of roads ■ Income: no clear correlation between income and modal split ■ US: highest car use and ownership ■ Active transport policy ■ Mountainous/cold/rainy ■ Safety, liability laws ■ Financial incentives ■ Gas taxes, licensing, driver's test. parking, roadway subsidies "Pay for 3 cars get 1" danish ministry of transport ■ Gas costs less in US than in Norway ■ Land use and housing policies ■ Don't view private market outcomes in urban land use/development as acceptable (unlike US) ○ Conclusion ■ Ease of getting license, etc. motivate Americans to buy their own cars (rational decision) Urban development policies, although they only indirectly affect transportation, may be as important as direct transportation policies in determining the evolution of transportation systems and travel behavior. Conclusion: "[The differences in modal split] are not simply the results of consumer sovereignty or of independent, individual decision making that reveals supposedly innate preferences for mode of travel and way of life." p. 517 "For the vast majority of Americans, the alternative to the automobile is immobility." "Not surprisingly, almost all Americans—under those circumstances—say that they prefer the auto and buy their own as soon as they can afford to."

India: Rapid Motorization and Impacts

More demand for MVs: social trap Injuries and fatalities PM10 levels extremely high -- Motor vehicle growth in India: ■ Economic liberalization --> more demand for MVs ■ Exponential rise in MV production and ownership ■ Social trap in India ■ Traffic congestion with MVs creates massive time losses, especially for buses ■ Public transport: very poor ■ Massive range of vehicles ■ Road traffic fatalities and injuries ■ Most serious impact of MV ownership ■ West has fewer pedestrian/cyclist fatalities than Asia does ■ Road traffic fatality can worsen socioeconomic conditions ■ Unable to work if person becomes physically disabled ■ Socioeconomic impacts > the fatalities themselves ■ Traffic injuries: quality life years lost ■ Road traffic fatalities and injuries: A Public Health Crisis ■ Extreme increase in deaths (especially in Asia) ■ Urban air pollution ■ PM10: strongly correlated with respiratory conditions, negative health impacts ■ Graphic shows daily average PM10 levels ■ Bulk of pollution is transport-generated and PM10 levels are extremely

Solutions to growing pressures on food

Multicropping Water: drip irrigation, pricing, less water intensive crops Protein: based on roughage Move down food chain -- More cultivation: Agricultural land expansion (25% since 1950) slowing, Grain harvested area leveling off, dropping per capita Bringing more land under cultivation: very limited potential Forests not an option Arid lands would require massive inputs with massive impacts Cropland loss due to soil erosion and degradation, loss of soil fertility Conversion to non-farm uses - housing, industry Conversion to other crops like soybean (oilseed, livestock, large areas) ○ Double cropping ■ Growing two types of crops in a year For example, winter wheat and "summer" soybeans Nairobi: planting of leguminous trees Slow growth allows grain to mature Trees grow quickly after grain harvest Drop leaves provide nitrogen and ○ Fertilizers: Diminishing returns in NA, Western Europe, and Japan, some potential in Africa ○ Solutions involve change in practices, not change of size of land needed Water : 70% of world water is used for irrigation More efficient irrigation (up to 50% of water is lost) Drip irrigation systems Less water intensive crops (recall differences among plant species and plant versus meat production) Pricing Example: Mexico, farmer's associations managed more than 80% of Mexico's publicly irrigated land. Incentive to save Protein Dairy in India: built on roughage Moved from ½ cup per person to "more than a cup" today. China: Wheat straw and cornstalks used as roughage in ruminants (turned into diary protein) Another benefit of double-cropping "Move down food chain" Plant-based diet, insects etc.

Implications for Policy Analysis and Policy-making

Multiple dimensions, policy impacts, perspectives, groups differently effected Boundaries, tradeoffs, conflicts Need for interdisciplinary, integrated assessment -- *Multiple dimensions and policy impacts* -energy consumption and security; vehicle performance; air pollution; climate change; land use; soil degradation; water pollution; biodiversity loss; food security; poverty; waste management; rural development *Multiple, conflicting perspectives* - society, vehicle users, vehicle manufacturers, farmers; the poor ... *Multiple groups differentially affected, within and across societies* eg. food prices *System boundaries for analysis* *Need to reconcile trade-offs and conflicts* - multiple policy impacts for multiple groups *Need for Inter-disciplinarity, integrated assessment*

hardin's solution

Mutual Coercion Mutually Agreed Upon

Conclusion about food

Need to mobilize -- cautiously optimiztic "The world has the resources and technology to eradicate hunger. It needs to mobilize political will and build the necessary institutions to ensure that key decisions on investment levels and allocation as well as on agricultural and food security policies are taken with the goal of hunger eradication in mind. The expert analysis presented here paints a cautiously optimistic picture of the future of food security in the world." From How to Feed the World in 2050

The findings from this study suggest three levels of environmental injustice occurring in the Montreal region:

Neighborhoods with the highest social disadvantage experience some of the worst exposures to traffic-related air pollution, The polluter-pays principle is mostly absent, and There is a subset of highly disadvantaged communities who are exposed to levels of pollution that they have little to no role in producing.

○ What school of thought is Hardin coming from

Neo-Malthusian ■ Focuses on population as the problem ■ Lifeboat ethic (exclusionary way of thinking) Population control and the power to decide how many children to have • Critical of Universal Declaration of Human Rights (also critical of the welfare state in general - see his 'lifeboat ethic'). • 'Necessity of abandoning the commons in breeding'

More sustainable: NYC or Burlington

New York: New York - car ownership 46% (by household) even less in Manhattan (27%) Lack of space - no "extra" rooms, swimming pools, lawns to water and mow, less room to store "stuff". Vermont 545 gallons of gas per year (100 gallons more than American average, 6 times more than the average Manhattanite Population dispersal means redundant infrastructure, roads, power grid, water and sewage lines, schools, shopping malls High proportion of LEED certified buildings Energy-efficiency policies

Emissions (or concentrations) pathway

One possible sequence of future emissions (or concentrations) over time, by country.

Nihilism

Nothing has any intrinsic value.

4 limit to urban growth according to Mumford:

Nutritional limit, Military limit, Traffic limit, Power limit Also, rail transport and Industrialization (jobs)

Rapid urbanization poses both opportunities and challenges for low income nations

Opportunities: Jobs, incomes, services Women in poor nations generally fare better in cities than in rural areas in terms of education and employment possibilities (United Nations Population Fund, 2011). Challenges: homelessness, poor living conditions

Voluntary vs. coercive approach

Parental need for children at the level of households, not lack of contraceptives, that drives high fertility and rapid population growth ○ Bring down rapid population growth --> need to see population not as an independent factor, but as a factor that is embedded within and is an outcome of a broader socioeconomic process ■ Don't target population directly like in India and China, but address it as this factor mentioned above (invest in allowing females to have paid employment and become economically independent, which increases decision-making power in households) ■ Poverty alleviation, economic security (land reform), access to resources (like water) --> reduces need for more children in households ■ Family planning, but also public, primary health services ■ Socio-economic "development is the best contraceptive" ○ Just providing contraceptives has no use because there is a great need to increase number of children

SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE

Past research (Foth, Manaugh, El-Geneidy, 2013) developed an index to capture social disadvantage: oMedian income oUnemployment rate oRecent Immigrants (2001-2006) oHouseholds that spend over 30% of their income on rent

Problems With the Travel Cost Method

People have different opportunity costs Some may have alternative recreational opportunities that others do not The travel cost method has been extended to address both of these issues

Petroleum compared to alternatives

Petroleum has a low H/C ratio but is volumetrically energy dense and has a decent vapor pressure. Alcohol engines can be tricky to start in the winter. Natural gas engines perform well but need gas compressors. Petroleum cars are durable, reliable and have compact fuel giving room for passenger and trunk space as well as having low refueling frequency

Thermal Inversions

Pollution is worse at this time Temperature decreases with elevation, but sometimes it's inverted and polar air at ground, warmer air at the top Random, nothing to do with human activity

Coercion in china

Population rates peaked in the 1960s --> Chinese gov. became concerned about resource constraints and lack of food --> instituted policies ■ The Chinese and Indian experience, driven by fear of resource constraints ■ China invested in policies to incentivize population control (carrots and sticks) to promote "later, longer, fewer" ■ Increase marriage, free contraceptives, sterilization, abortions, education, healthcare, benefits in retirement ■ Very successful --> TFR (total fertility rate) decreased from 6 to 2.5 in 20 years ■ 1979: one-child policy ■ Pledge to be eligible for benefits ■ Strong state control and pressure ■ Adverse consequences: neglect of second child, first female child --> M:F ratio

Risk Aversion

Prefer "sure thing" to gamble w/ higher expected payout Dislike exposure to low probability catastrophe compared with high probability unpleasant event -- An individual is risk averse if they prefer a "sure thing" to a gamble with a higher expected payo: E.g.. $50 for sure versus a 50% chance for $110. Risk aversion implies that people will dislike exposure to catastrophic events occuring w/ low probability more than unpleasant events occurring w/ high probability even if they have the same average cost.`

polluter pays principle

Principle specifying that the party responsible for producing pollution should pay the costs of cleaning up the pollution or mitigating its impacts.

"Triumph of the City" Ed Glaeser

Professor of Economics - Harvard University "Is there anything greener than blacktop?" "If you love nature, stay away from it."

Cap and trade

Quantity is fixed Government decides on a quota (maximum) of GHG emissions for the period (e.g. 1 month) Firms bringing fossil fuels or etc into the economy bid on permits at an auction Overall: minimum cost for given reduction Easy implementation (not many companies emitting GHG except for vehicles and heating systems) Examples: EU ETS, WCI (Quebec, California), U.S.A. SO2

Demographic Equation

R = (b - d) + (i -e ) ■ r = population growth rate ■ b = birth date ■ d = death rate ■ i = immigration rate ■ e = emigration rate ■ b - d: rate of natural increase (results from people being born and dying)

Unconscious environmentalism

Reality of neighborhood can cause people to make environmentally conscious decisions (unconsciously) Measurable benefits for living in urban areas

Rapid Motorization and Impacts: Contributory Factors

Range of technological, economic, socio-cultural, behavioural, political, institutional, policy contributory factors at various levels (impacts, MV activity and ownership) Very high exposure and impacts, despite low activity levels Poverty-pollution-health care synergies Inadequate infrastructure (road length/vehicle kilometer); situation particularly serious in medium-size cities Wide range of modes, poor pedestrian and cycling infrastructure, and poor modal separation - congestion exacerbates impacts Vehicle, fuel technologies improving but high in-use emissions Institutions and Governance - poor traffic and parking control; fuel adulteration; inspection and maintenance

Case Study - India

Rapid Motorization and Impacts Contributory factors Urban Transport and Land Use Characteristics -- Possibilities and Constraints The Gap between Needs and Policy Urban Transport Policy - From a Vicious to a Virtuous Circle Contrast with Western high-income countries Questions to Ponder and Debate

Energy consumption has increased the most rapidly in transport

Rapid growth in MV ownership and activity Difficult to control energy consumption because of complex human-technological-institutional dimensions (many people making choices)

Growth of World Population and the History of Technology Figure

Rapid growth of technology as population increases

demographic transition

Refers to the theory based on the experience of industrialized western nations that explains how and why birth rates and death rates have shifted from very high levels to low levels and the resulting changes in the population

Braess's Paradox

Removing highways etc. in cities improves traffic instead of creating more gridlock. Washington Square Park Seoul, South Korea. Replaced six lane highway with a 5 mile long park Times Square

Denition: Risk

Risk = badness* probability

Induced demand:

Road capacity expansion generates traffic!

Bentham as Visionary

Said all animals can feel pain, have equal vote in accounting

Solutions The Highway and the City (1958)

Smaller cars Planning for pedestrians Rebuild and expand public transport Regional governments Mortgage reform (ensure that housing is affordable everywhere and make sure that people have access to transportation)

A "GREEN" CAR

Should we "mandate inefficient equipment to save energy"? If cars today were like Model Ts, how much would you drive? Behaviour versus technological change "Unless those drivers shred the money and add it to a compost heap, the environment is unlikely to come out ahead" - David Owen How can AVs and electric cars and other new transport technologies contribute to sustainable cities?

SMART GROWTH

Smart growth is an approach to development that encourages a mix of building types and uses, diverse housing and transportation options, development within existing neighborhoods, and community engagement. -Compact development linked to improvements in overall quality of life - CO2 reductions are a bonus. -Mix land uses. -Take advantage of compact building design. -Create a range of housing opportunities and choices. -Create walkable neighborhoods. -Foster distinctive, attractive communities with a strong sense of place. -Preserve open space, farmland, natural beauty, and critical environmental areas. -Strengthen and direct development towards existing communities. -Provide a variety of transportation choices. -Make development decisions predictable, fair, and cost effective. -Encourage community and stakeholder collaboration in development decisions. -The 8 to 80 City

Societal vs. Vehicle User Perspectives

Societal Perspective - Energy security, Air pollution, Greenhouse gas emissions - "Clean" fuels or vehicles vs. Fuel Systems - Importance of fuel cycle "Well to Wheels" approach From getting fuel from ground to processing/transporting it, to distributing it, to using it in MV, then what comes out of exhaust pipe For biofuels: growing crops to tilling land, to conversion to biofuels, use of biofuels in MV, emission Vehicle User and Manufacturer Perspective - Reliability (fuel supply; vehicle performance) - Driveability; Cold start - Competitiveness -- Price relative to conventional fuels and vehicles - Savings, payback -- Relative price of fuel; intensity of use - Payload capacity, Range, Refuelling frequency - Fuel economy; Life-cycle costs - Durability (engine, oil) - Serviceability/Maintenance - Flexibility - Re-sale value - Safety - Toxicity Alternative fuels hardest to implement in transport - CHART - Volumetric energy content -- Fuel storage space and weight - Vehicle fuel economy -- Cost - Payload -- Range -- Refueling frequency trade-offs • Development, and large scale adoption - Feasibility and cost of fuel production, storage, distribution; vehicle production - "Chicken and egg" problem -- even now only 6% share

Solow's paradox

Solow's 'Paradox' Distributional equity: Future (potential) people and current people "There is something inconsistent about people who profess to be terribly concerned the welfare of future generations but do not seem to be terribly concerned about the welfare of poor people today" Paradox manifests itself in the choice between 'consumption' versus 'investment' Example of China and coal Also driving in India and China (Tata Nano for example) "Sustainability as a moral obligation is a general obligation not a specific one" Sustainability is not exclusively an environmental issue. It is fundamentally about how we choose to live our lives, with an awareness that everything we do has consequences for the 7 billion of us here today, as well as for the billions more who will follow, for centuries.

Wachsmuth Nature

Spatially, sustainability research and policymaking should shift focus from city centres to urban regions and global networks of production, consumption and distribution. Socially, policymakers should incorporate equity into every stage of the urban-policy process, from research to formulation to implementation. Environmental gentrification only accounting for pollution within region, but pollution may occur in suburbs Municipalities thus tend to pursue sustainability policies that are also economic-development policies, and these disproportionately focus on affluent central business districts or residential areas designed to attract skilled professionals. First, urban environmental researchers need to supplement neighbourhood-specific and city-centric measurements, such as walkability or commuting by public transport, with ones that better capture the broader dimensions of ecological sustainability and social equity. Second, multicity low-carbon policy networks such as the C40 and climate-focused organizations such as the World Resources Institute in Washington DC should insist on — and support — all large cities carrying out standardized, consumption-based carbon footprint analyses Third, policymakers should treat social equity and ecological effectiveness as mutually reinforcing dynamics in urban sustainability.

A path to sustainability and well-being

Start measuring the right things: improve national accounts so that we have, and focus on, relevant measures. Properly account for the comparison rat race or the "hedonic treadmill" Shift culture away from belief that life must get worse under a lower-consumption economy Build engaged, resilient, collaborative, and inclusive communities, emphasizing investments with positive social spillovers Continue to improve and communicate understanding of good choices

Evaluating

Stated preferences ■ Revealed preferences ■ Best way to understand people's behavior: observe, don't ask ■ Casual identification ■ Variation happened in random way, statistically define the degree of causation ■ Engineering approach ■ Replace something valuable with an alternative ■ Aggregation ■ Making estimates of values --> thinking about values to individuals, but to add them up for decisions, we need to consider them across individuals, across time, and across different possible futures ■ If risk is involved, don't know what future will hold (difficult)

Making tradeoffs

Stated preferences ■ Revealed preferences ■ Best way to understand people's behavior: observe, don't ask ■ Casual identification ■ Variation happened in random way, statistically define the degree of causation ■ Engineering approach ■ Replace something valuable with an alternative ■ Aggregation ■ Making estimates of values --> thinking about values to individuals, but to add them up for decisions, we need to consider them across individuals, across time, and across different possible futures ■ If risk is involved, don't know what future will hold (difficult)

Problems with stated-WTA and stated-WTP

Stated-WTA values are typically 2 to 7 times as high as stated-WTP values This persists even in tests specically designed to control for inflated stated-WTA figures Why? Possible explanations: "prospect theory" no good substitutes between environmental and market goods?

Hardin: Comments and critique I

Such an arrangement may work reasonably satisfactorily for centuries because tribal wars, poaching, and disease keep the numbers of both man and beast well below the carrying capacity of the land. Has any cultural group solved this practical problem at the present time, even on an intuitive level? One simple fact proves that none has: there is no prosperous population in the world today that has... See Jared Diamond's collapse; he identifies some (but what is "prosperous"?)

ROBERT SOLOW

Sustainability: An Economist's Perspective Critiques (some) definitions of 'sustainability' "...every generation should leave water, air and soil resources as pure and unpolluted as when it came on earth" "each generation should leave undiminished all the species of animals it found existing on earth" Sustainability is vague - but that's not necessarily a bad thing. "Moral" obligation What does Solow mean? *We do not owe to the future any particular thing. There is no specific object the goal of sustainability [...] requires us to leave untouched.* Sustainability or Substitutability?

B.C.: Carbon tax I

Tax assessed on retail sale of all fossil fuels (including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, natural gas, propane, coal and home heating fuel, which together account for 70 percent of B.C.'s greenhouse gas emissions). One-third of carbon tax revenue will be returned to businesses and two-thirds to individuals to ensure each gets back their share of carbon taxes paid The proposed tax rates increase over four years, based on the dollars per tonne of CO2e emissions, as set out below: July 1, 2008 | $10 per tonne of CO2e emissions ... July 1, 2012 | $30 per tonne of CO2e emissions Equivalent rates on gasoline start at 2.41 cents per litre in 2008 and go up to 7.24 cents per litre in 2012.

Connection between land use and energy

Temperate cities emit less carbon (energy used for heating) Electricity use is greater in hotter cities (for AC)

EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone)

The 200 nautical miles from a nation's shoreline of protected resources and economic activity

DAVID OWEN

The Conundrum: How Scientific Innovation, Increased Efficiency, and Good Intentions Can Make Our Energy and Climate Problems Worse "Just tell me what to buy." "Unconscious environmentalism" "Population density is key, we use less energy because the way we live makes it harder to use more—unconscious efforts don't have to be enforced."

has allowed for an exponential population growth

The agricultural revolutions and exponential growth in output

Why would you heat your home using coal, when the air is already so bad that people are dying from it? Why do we not, now?

The amount one household contributes to regional pollution is very small, too small for the household to notice themselves. They do notice the extra indoor/local pollution they make, so they limit their coal use based only on the local effect (and the cost of coal). Since coal is their cheapest heating option, they look up at the disgusting sky made dirty by many thousands of other households, and think "I'd like to be warm, and I cannot change that situation out there. I could invest three month's salary to get a clean, electric heat pump, but it would not make much difference to the quality of my air, which is dominated by the regional pollution, and that is a lot of money! Oh, but what I wouldn't give to have everyone else stop polluting. I'd certainly pay three month's salary to completely clean up the air, but not just to reduce emissions from my own house." → And now, Beijing is implementing an outright ban on using coal for rural household heating. Everyone pays more for electricity and their heat pump, but life is better and the cost is worth it. Everyone prefers the situation. Weird: that extra expense solved the pollution completely, yet no one would take that step unless it was mandatory

Food Miles

The distance travelled by food items from the farm to the consumer. Related to GHG, air pollution, energy, traffic congestion "100 mile diet"

The Value of Human Life

The most ethically charged aspect of benefit-cost analysis is its requirement that we put a monetary value on human life Old approach, still used in court settlements: future lifetime earnings. Retired or disabled person is "worth" $0. Newer economic approach: wage-risk studies.

WHAT IS THE "ENVIRONMENT"

The natural world, as a whole or in a particular geographical area, especially as affected by human activity. (OED) "Addressing this question of discrepancy between what does and does not count as "environmental" is, I believe, crucial to the efforts to produce a broadly based environmental movement that really works." Giovanna Di Chiro For communities like mine, environmentalism has seemed to be about preserving places most of us will never see. [...] Foundations feed this problem by failing to recognize minorities and urban city residents as prominent stakeholders in the environmental arena. Orson Aguilar (2005)

CARS OF THE FUTURE

The problem with efficiency (beyond Jevons) Even 'clean' cars use space, pose danger to others, cause congestion etc. PM 2.5 is also generated from tires and braking (not just exhaust!) Are electric cars and autonomous vehicles the answer?

Stated-WTP/stated-WTA Disparities: Which to Use?

The standard practice is to use *stated-WTP* But if we think of common property as belonging to "the people". . . With either, higher benefits for clean-up in wealthier communities.

Social Cost of Carbon (SCC)

The total (summed), discounted ("net-present") value of all future damage caused by emitting an extra unit (tonne) of GHG today (or in a given year).

Revealed preferences: Travel Cost evaluation of consumer surplus Market preferences

The travel-cost method measures the amount of money that people expend to use the resource (parks, rivers, or beaches) By relating differences in travel cost to differences in consumption, a demand curve for the resource can be derived and consumer surplus estimated

What does it mean for people in the future to be "richer"?

There are half as many old-growth forests, but people have 10 times as much leisure time to visit and enjoy them There is less arable land, but the high-volume farming is done largely by robots and the food is nutritious, always fresh, and plentiful The sea level has risen but hover-villa settlements are the most popular anyway, and large areas of coastline are beautifully restored Rainfall and weather are less predictable, but cities have the option of turning on their wind-damping force-fields if they ever need to While there are no more blue whales, most species survived, and by year 2118 because the global population of humans has stabilized at a mere 2 B people, vast areas of the globe have been returned to wilderness. Poverty is a feature of distant history. If real per capita economic growth continues at a rate of 2%{3% per year, then people in one hundred years' time will be 7 (or 19) times as wealthy as us. Microeconomics tells us that their marginal benefit from consumption will therefore be vastly lower than ours. So why should we limit our own consumption now on their behalf? Moreover, there may be no more poverty in the future. Who is more deserving of our limited efforts, the future wealthy or the poorest of today?

Food security is a complex sustainable development issue, linked to health through malnutrition, but also to sustainable economic development, environment, and trade. There is a great deal of debate around food security with some arguing that:

There is enough food in the world to feed everyone adequately; the problem is distribution. (Marxist)

At Manila density: fit everyone in

Tunisia

Three-legged stool

Three-Legged Stool Enhancing public transit service, rational pricing of road use, and pedestrian accessibility comprise a three-legged stool, with each measure depending on the other two. Improving the attractiveness and effectiveness of public transit, as discussed, depends importantly on ensuring safe and convenient pedestrian access, and curbing personal motor vehicle use, through pricing to increase its marginal cost relative to transit. At the same time, measures to curb personal motor vehicle use would be politically unacceptable without the provision of convenient and affordable transit options, and safe and easy pedestrian accessibility. Finally, increasing the attractiveness of walking and cycling depends not only on the provision of infrastructure and facilities for these modes, but also on reducing motor vehicle congestion. Because this, in turn, depends on reducing motor vehicle use through pricing, and more effective public transit, one can see how these measures rely on, and reinforce each other.

"Traditional" versus "Industrial" Agriculture

Traditional: Small quantities of meat, Natural grasslands, move for food, water, Labour intensive, Lean meat, Wastes returned to soil, organic fertilizer, fuel; Mainly for sustenance, Marginal, tropical lands, Multiple crops, small plots, Low investments, Inputs: natural water, organic fertilizer, biological control, Labour intensive, draft animals Industrial:Large quantities of meat, for sale, Feedlots, growth hormones, antibiotics, Energy, water intensive, Fatty meat, Large quantities of waste, water pollution; Food for sale, Flat, easily cultivated soils, Single crops over large area, Capital investment, Inputs: irrigation, chemical fertilizer, pesticides, Machinery powered by fossil fuels

Urban transport pyramid

Traffic engineering and management, technologies for per-vehicle impacts, cost-effective quality public transit, pricing of road use, accessibility -- NMT infrastructure, land use-transportation integration

Downs-Thompson Paradox

Triple Convergence: In response, three types of convergence occur on the "improved" expressway: (1) many drivers who formerly used alternative routes during peak hours switch to the improved expressway (spatial convergence); (2) many drivers who formerly traveled just before or after the peak hours start traveling during those hours (time convergence); and (3) some commuters who used to take public transportation during peak hours now switch to driving, since it has become faster (modal convergence).

Precautionary principle

Two components: need to anticipate harm before it occurs act to prevent or minimise harm, even before scientific proof 1 an expression of a need by decision-makers to anticipate harm before it occurs. Within this element lies an implicit reversal of the onus of proof: under the precautionary principle it is the responsibility of an activity proponent to establish that the proposed activity will not (or is very unlikely to) result in signicant harm. 2 the establishment of an obligation, if the level of harm may be high, for action to prevent or minimise such harm even when the absence of scientific certainty makes it difficult to predict the likelihood of harm occurring, or the level of harm should it occur. The need for control measures increases with both the level of possible harm and the degree of uncertainty.

Promoting Sustainable Fisheries McGinn

Two main causes of overfishing: overcapacity and open access Now trash fish are becoming more valuable Catching fish at a younger age and smaller size guarantees a declining biological return by undermining future breeding populations Dead zone in gulf of mexico Marine ecosystems under siege from human activities Bycatch Cyanide poison Reducing cover from predators, harming food supplies, lowering biodiversity from fishing gear and methods Too many fishers on too many boats with too many hooks and nets taking too many fish from the sea If one person does not catch the available fish, someone else will Heavily subsidized, overcapitalized, economically inefficient industry Conversion of navy vessels to commercial fishing Factory trawlers with onboard processing and freezing facilities 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zones --> by 80s most of growth in fishing fleet in developing countries increased lending to fisheries subsidies encourage fishers to remain in dying indsutry and to continue to overextend themselves and marine resources some community based management still works: ex turkey. rotating fishing sites from east to west during different seasons, phillipines: management of nearshore fisheries to municipalities and local fishing communities market based solutions ITQs: individual transferable quotas: right to harvest fixed volume or share of fish in particular area and time. can be sold and bought in market. devastating for small-scale fishers. implemented in australia, canada, iceland, netherlands, nz, and us. polluter pays principle no take fishing areas

Key Demographic Features - National Comparison (2005-10)

US, Canada, UK: low death rates and infant mortality rates. immigration is tool. populations are old Germany: aging population. fertility rate way below replacement. declining population Malawi, Niger, Afghanistan: high total fertility rate, lower life expectancy. higher birthrate. high infant mortality rate. need to bring down infant mortality rate to decrease population growth over time! median age is quite low! lots of folks having kids. leads to population momentum

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential

Uncertain, depends on feedstock Biofuels not economical without subsidies in NA and Europe -- Fossil fuel use involved in biomass fuel production and use • Fuel Cycle GHG highly dependent on feedstock/context; much uncertainty • GHG Reduction Potential for Different Fuels/feedstocks (IEA): - Ethanol from sugarcane (Brazil) - Ethanol from cellulosic feedstock, IEA - Biodiesel from rapeseed, EU - Ethanol from sugar beets, EU - Ethanol from grain, US/EU • GHG reduction potential, economic costs, competitiveness highly context specific • High cost in North America and Europe - would not be economical without subsidies

Reasons for high MV ownership/use at low incomes

Urbanization - increased incomes 2W MV's - advantages and low labour costs Housing affordability, but poor access/safety - MV focused planning (i.e. need a vehicle to cross a highway Family structure and gender relations "Buying a dream" - cars/MVs seen as status symbol ♣ Honda: "No city limits" ♣ Bajaj: "Feel like God" Growing supply of MV's and easy credit

urbanization and Agriculture

Urbanization is linked with agriculture Excess food --> more settled cities Feeding cities (non-productive zones): goal of agriculture

Targets

Use indicators to make specific desired endpoints.

Contribution of Transportation in Air Pollution in Montreal

VOC: 43% NOx: 85% Particles: 30%

precautionary principle

When a threat is of serious environmental damage, we should not wait for scientific proof before taking action.

Individuals may perceive risk differently than the actual risk for a few reasons:

Voluntary vs involuntary risk (e.g., smoking, pollution, driving, flying) Lack of knowledge Distrust of experts People are risk averse

11th Hour excerpt: Ecological economics and Ecosystems Services perspectives

Watch clip from "11th Hour" Herman Daly David Suzuki Stephen Schneider Ray Anderson Discussion question: What are some problems with the eco- logical arguments given in the clip?

Planner's problem: mitigation. what would a benevolent dictator do?

Ways to reduce GHGs: Science: what are the sources of GHGs? 1 methane release from natural gas industry =) 2 CO2 from cement reaction =) 3 CFCs and aerosols =) 4 CO2 from coal, oil, and gas combustion =) 5 . . .=) Economics: Which set of available options is best? --> effort / resource allocation Science/ engineering For each source / mechanism, what mitigation is physically possible?

Summary: exam questions

What (two) reasons might we have for valuing a given benefit going to someone in the future more or less than the same benefit going to someone today? What's hard about adding up all the benets that we expect from a particular decision? (or investment, act of environmental conservation, or etc?) Qualitatively, what are some (two) ways to deal with the fact that the future is uncertain, when deciding which action to take? Will I be more likely to invest in a building eciency retrofit (e.g. insulating a building) if the current real interest rate is high or low? Why?

Questions to Ponder and Debate: Urban Transport in India

What will Indian cities look like as vehicle ownership levels approach rich country levels? Why are things as they are? Why do we put up with the status quo? Why do policy and planning in Indian and other LIC/MIC cities not only ignore but actively discriminate against NMT? Why does planning privilege motor vehicles regardless of context? Why do we keep following Western models of development, even after the West has abandoned them? How do we make social change happen? How does it happen? How do we turn things around? How do we go from here to where we need to be? What is transport for? How we frame the "urban transport problem" is crucially important Urban transport is importantly about technology, but fundamentally a matter of politics and ethics How do we engage the public in urban transport decision making? What are the implications for urban transport policy and planning, for urban planning, and for planning education? What can we, as academics, researchers, professionals, concerned citizens do?

Discounting Interest

When future benefits are not weighed as heavily as current benefits, we say that the future benefits are discounted Due to interest, resources on hand today are more valuable than resources available at a later date The amount we would put aside today to grow to a certain benefit in the future is the present discounted value (PDV) of that benefit The PDV of X$ received in T years is the amount of money one would need to invest in the present to just receive X in T years, at a specied rate of interest, or discount rate, r PDV = X/ [1 + r ]^T

THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE

When human activities may lead to morally unacceptable harm that is scientifically plausible but uncertain, actions shall be taken to avoid or diminish that harm. Morally unacceptable harm refers to harm to humans or the environment that is: threatening to human life or health, or serious and effectively irreversible, or inequitable to present or future generations, or imposed without adequate consideration of the human rights of those affected.

Sample Policy comparison Environmental economics

When natural systems seem to be impacted by humanity, assess the costs and benefits by calculating net present (social) values. Then apply appropriate taxes, property rights, or specific regulation to internalize those effects if net discounted social welfare can be improved. Burden of proof often ends up on showing that (economic) welfare can be improved by protecting the environment "Size" of economy and size of impact on environment is left up to the market and "revealed preferences"

Transportation Planning

Why Build a Highway? Will Highways cure congestion? Consequences: Induced Demand, Triple Convergence, Braess's Paradox

Interpreting and estimating the values of ecosystem services

Why is valuing nature important: One is to examine the philosophical basis of ecosystem service value. The other component is to lay out various methods for measuring the values of ecosystem services, and to consider the strengths and limitations of these approaches. intrinsic rights United States environmental policy adopts both the anthropocentric value approach (via benefit-cost analysis) and an intrinsic rights approach, and often acts inconsistently. Oftentimes the mandate for a particular environmental law will embrace the intrinsic rights approach, but actual implementation yields to a value-based approach. There is an important difference between the marginal and total value associated with market prices or the willingness to pay of consumers in markets. Economists regard the prices that people are willing to pay as indicators of the marginal value—the value they place on the last unit purchased. in many real-world circumstances, the policy debate concerns the change in value or marginal loss of value that results from alteration or conversion of a part of the region that occupies an ecosystem. Assigning value to species: taxonomic proximity, genetic uniqueness, importance to ecosystem function

Discussion question valuation

Why was WTA higher than WTP? Will this always happen? Which one should be used to evaluate benets? What do you think? Which of these meth- ods do you like? Do you have any other ideas for how to evaluate benets we get (from nature or etc)? Discussion question: Blue whale populations grow at about 5% per year. If economic growth is strong and the real interest rate on capital is 6%, should I leave the remaining whales or slaughter them and eat/sell them now, even if there are already not many left?

Measuring sustainability

Why? How? 'Goals', 'Indicators', and 'Targets' of sustainable development Why? •Decision making and management •Advocacy •Participation and consensus building •Research and Analysis

Measuring benefits: "contingent valuation" (CV) of consumer surplus: stated-WTP and stated-WTA ("Stated preferences")

Without a market demand curve, we can simply ask people about their evaluations in order to derive consumer surplus: Willingness-to-pay (WTP) for improved ecosystem services Willingness-to-accept (WTA) compensation in exchange for degraded ecosystem services

potential reserves

amount that is profitably extractable at some other price

CDR

annual # of deaths per 1000 population (d)

why was zero the right level for lead in petrol

any amount of lead is deleterious benefits of having lead in gas not enormous cost of removing lead not enormous health cost dominated

Efficiency

artificially increasing energy's abundance. If we impose limits on our consumption of fossil fuels, advances in efficiency will enable us to live well with less damage; if we pursue efficiency alone, we will only make our problems worse. What does this mean?

Frugality

artificially increasing energy's scarcity through caps or taxes.

TFR

average # of children a woman would likely have during her childbearing years

life expectancy at birth

average years a new-born infant can expect to live

Mitigation:

avoidance by reducing GHGs

Mitigation

avoidance by reducing GHGs information subsidies prices regulation

-Neo-Malthusians are mainly

biologists and ecologists -main concern is "carrying capacity" of Earth compared to growing population

rate of natural growth

birth rate - death rate

Sample Policy comparison Ecological Economics

cap extraction and pollution, population, wealth and poverty -- Ecological Economics : (Herman Daly, Steady-State Economics, 1977): Rather than keep waiting to find (or calculate) the correct or socially optimal size of the economy, or amount of appropriation of natural processes, one should: 1 cap the levels of extraction and pollution immediately (at current levels, say), auctioning off the credits/rights 2 a similar kind of thing for population 3 Daly also believes there must be caps on poverty and wealth for these to work

virtually everywhere cities are

cleaner than suburbs (per capita)

Rationale for Alternative Fuels

control energy consumption, reduce GHGs, climate change, carbon uptake credits -- Great need to control energy consumption, and implement low-carbon alternatives to petroleum, in transport Significant share of urban air pollution Alternative fuels desirable - Energy security, urban air pollution, climate change Good transport fuels, more widely available, can be produced more widely, potential to address climate change Natural gas Bio-fuels - "carbon uptake credit" depending on how efficiently they are produced and used

Adaptation

coping by preparing for or responding to damage disaster management complex, like development policy

Mcgill's sustainable travel policy

could impose carbon tax

resources

country's collective means of supporting itself or becoming wealthier as represented by its reserves of minerals, land, and other assets UNESCO: humans EPA: government Parks canada: all species

Malthusian

critics consider pessimistic -study done for Club of Rome projected that we would run out of non-renewable resources as world continued to grow in next 100 years -industrial and food output would collapse as a results -population levels would collapse as well -no smooth transition between all these collapses -basically just a big cluster -findings showed exponential population growth until eventual collapse due to lack of resources -conclusion: no piecemeal solutions would work -can't deal with just pollution or just food -only comprehensive approaches bringing economic and population growth under control will work

Explaining life evaluation (national)

data from international dataset these factors all add up to the same influence as income: log (GDP/capita), life expectancy, corruption, freedom, giving, social support

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

deaths < 1 year old per 1000 live births

Contingent valuation (CV): useful or useless?

debatable widely used because only available means for estimating nonmarket benefits based on existence value -- Economists disagree about the reliability of CV analysis. But doing a `state of the art' job can be very expensive Analyses of Exxon Valdez oil spill: $3 million Such ambitious efforts are relatively rare CVs provide the only available means for estimating nonmarket benefits based primarily on existence value, so they are widely used

cultural services

ecosystems provide cultural or aesthetic benefits to many people

Geoengineering

emergency countermeasures that reverse climate changes without treating GHG cause artificial volcanic eruption parasol

renewable and substitutable

food, fish (but being over-extracted)

non-renewable, substitutable

fossil fuel

Food cycle:

from plants to waste - 10-15 steps with significant energy losses in between: harvest, refining, canning, packing, distributing internationally and locally, consumption, waste treatment Transport, handling and storage for each step

Income and happiness trends in US

happiness going down in US, but income is growing.

policies for population growth

immigration, pro-natalism, coercive

rebound effect

increased consumption of the good (substitution effect) -- when strong enough, leads to jevons paradox increased consumption of other goods (wealth effect) "general equilibrium" growth effect: increased consumption by everyone, due to spillovers of more economic activity Typically measured (many studies!) at 20%-80%.

Serious Potential for Food Security Impacts

increased prices of other crops (yellow corn in mexico, cassava in africa) -- Increased biofuel demand --> Feedstocks (corn, wheat, etc.) diverted to biofuel production --> Reduced supply and higher price of corn and wheat for food and feed --> Increased demand for other crops for food and feed --> Increased prices of other crops Also: More land dedicated to biofuel feedstocks --> Land diverted from production of other crops --> More land brought under cultivation for those crops --> Increased prices of other crops •Eg. Yellow corn for biofuels --> Mexican manufacturers switched from yellow to white corn --> Reduced availability and higher prices of white corn for tortillas for poor Cassava diverted to biofuel production --> Higher price of cassava, a staple food for millions of poor people in Africa The poor, who spend 50-80% of household income on food, worst hit, particularly in LICs which have a food deficit and import oil Gallagher Review -- EU target for 2020 scaled down

Agyeman Toward a Just Sustainability

inequity and injustice resulting from, among other things, racism and classism are bad for the environment and bad for a broadly conceived notion of sustainability. sustainability . . . cannot be simply a 'green', or 'environmental' concern, important though 'environmental' aspects of sustainability are. A truly sustainable society is one where wider questions of social needs and welfare, and economic opportunity are integrally related to environmental limits imposed by supporting ecosystems. . the inseparability of environmental quality and human equality; . ideas about a just, as opposed to a purely environmental, sustainability. Based on the New Environmental Paradigm of Catton and Dunlap (1978), environmental sustainability is very good on 'inter-generational equity' - equity to as yet unborn generations - but has little to say about 'intra-generational equity' - equity or social justice now. I call this the 'equity deficit' of environmental sustainability. Just sustainability The 'Just Sustainability Paradigm' is an emerging discursive frame and paradigm. It is not, however, rigid, single and universal, thereby avoiding the charge of essentialism. It links to both the green/New Environmental Paradigm and the brown/Environmental Justice Paradigm. In this sense, it can be seen as being both flexible and contingent, composed of overlapping discourses that come from recognition of the validity of a variety of issues, problems and framings. It arises from the definition of sustainability of Agyeman, Bullard, and Evans (2003, 5) - 'the need to ensure a better quality of life for all, now and into the future, in a just and equitable manner, whilst living within the limits of supporting ecosystems' Note that Urban Ecology eschews both, on the one hand, a 'traditional environmental' and on the other a 'traditional community development/environmental justice' focus in favour of just sustainability or what they call 'healthy human habitats'. Sustainable San Francisco website represents the most advanced integration of justice and equity of any city in the United States, as a part of its sustainability policy include broad, long-term social goals, long-term objectives, specific actions, and community indicators for each topic area. Summary The dominant orientation of most sustainability discourses and practices has been 'environmental' or 'green', with little or no interest in, or conception of, the role or effects of inequity and injustice, racism and classism. The Just Sustainability Paradigm foregrounds four, albeit related, focal areas of concern that are not all represented by either the green/New Environmental Paradigm or the brown/Environmental Justice Paradigm: . Quality of Life; . Present and Future Generations; . Justice and Equity; . Living within Ecosystem Limits. It is only through a just sustainability focus that the true potential of sustainability and sustainable development will be realized.

Hardin: Comments and critique III

it was assumed without proof that guilt was a valuable, perhaps even an indispensable, ingredient of the civilized life. Now, in this post-Freudian world, we doubt it. (i) (intended communication) "If you don't do as we ask, we will openly condemn you for not acting like a responsible citizen"; (ii) (the unintended communication) "If you do behave as we ask, we will secretly condemn you for a simpleton who can be shamed into standing aside while the rest of us exploit the commons. This is insightful.

proven reserves

known amount of resources that are profitably extractable with 90% certainty given current prices, technology, and political conditions

The population bomb revisited, ehrlich and ehrlich

main message: that it can be a very bad thing to have more than a certain number of people alive at the same time, that Earth has a finite carrying capacity, and that the future of civilization was in grave doubt central goal of The Population Bomb: to encourage the adoption of policies that would gradually reduce birthrates and eventually start a global decline toward a human population size that is sustainable in the long run Right: overconsumption is a problem, epidemics, overuse of pesticides Wrong: title is misleading, too optimistic, use of scenarios

Value in economics is about

marginal changes

Barriers to urban transport in india:

o Parking control o Gap between policies and needs ♣ Triple convergence: the more roads are built, the worse traffic gets ♣ Buses and metro exist but are barely used - waste of money and space o Access loss is the most serious impact ♣ Pedestrians become 2nd class citizens: walking, and biking is inconvenient and dangerous ♣ Short distance trips have to be done in vehicles due to MV-centered planning - walking is too inconvenient ♣ Loss of accessibility affects all: even MV-owners - Planning for MV's affects accessibility which in turn reduces mobility

Wolves in Minnesota

one of first species listed as endangered in US (ESA) in 1973 wolves control overgrazing by ungulates; wolves cause losses to others Contingent valuation was used: "Would you support management and reimburse those who suer losses?" Respondents who live near wolves have median stated-willingness-to-pay (stated-WTP) of $5 Respondents who live in central Minnesota have median stated-WTP of $21 Stated motives were ethical, existence, and bequest values. Aggregate for state was $25M, funding a trust with annual income of $1.5M for management and $1.4M for compensation -- well above costs. Minnesota's wolves were de-listed from the U.S. Endangered Species Act Jan. 27, 2012.

Population, Poverty and the Local Environment Dasgupta

population growth, poverty and degradation of local resources often fuel one another. The collected research has shown that none of the three elements directly causes the other two; rather each influences, and is in turn influenced by, the others. Besides, in developing countries, decisions on whether to have a child and on how to share education, food, work, health care and local resources are in large measure made within small entities such as households. So it makes sense to study the link between poverty, population growth and the environment from a myriad of local, even individual, viewpoints. Depends on who is doing the deciding. Power and gender paid employment and education for women community helps raise children, so makes sense to have more kids Connection between poverty, environmental degradation, and population growth having more kids is a collective action problem The most potent solution in semiarid regions of sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent is to deploy a number of policies simultaneously. Family planning services, especially when allied with health services, and measures that empower women are certainly helpful. literacy and employment drive for women is essential to smooth the transition to having fewer children. Improved infrastructure

Policies for solving Collective Action Problems

public education (advertising, PSA) information (change preferences or empowerment to act) performance standards (labels) environmental taxes (e.g. emissions pricing) regulation (e.g. emissions; shing season; urban planning; performance requirements) (p)reserves border regulations subsidise (or public) R+D ("technology policies") subsidise investment (insulate/retrot house) subsidise consumption (bus tickets, Prius, wind E) subsidise disposal / turnover ("cash for clunkers") pay-per-use charges public infrastructure investment family planning

sustainable yield

rate at which a resource can be extracted at a certain level over time -in order to be on the safe side, sustainable yield must be much lower than the regeneration rate

Why do outcomes not accord with optimality?

social costs (externalities; collective action problems) -environmental -social: e.g., congestion -social: e.g., norm-setting -social: underinvestment in public goods incorrect social objectives -misguided policy incorrect individual objectives -affective forecasting -systematic bias -"bounded rationality"; lifelong learning

What explains the dierence in well-being between Atlantic Canada and BC?

social identity mainly. in places where average income is higher, people are less happy

Prospect theory:

status quo reference points rather than expected utility

provisioning services

supply us with resources, such as food, water, and the air we breathe

Jevon's Paradox

technological progress can increase the efficiency of resource use, which can increase the rate of consumption of that resource

Discount factor

tells us how much to discount marginal consumption in some possible future scenario. It is: marginal utility in the future/ marginal utility now *pure time factor where "marginal utility" means the utility (value) of an increment of consumption

Discount factor

tells us how much to discount marginal consumption in some possible future scenario. It is: marginal utility in the future/ marginal utility now *pure time factor where "marginal utility" means the utility (value) of an increment of consumption

How Poverty Breeds Overpopulation (and not the other way around) by Barry Commoner

the birthrate must be deliberately reduced to the point of "zero population growth." methods: family planning, coercion, lifeboat ethic Quality of life: birthrate is not only affected by biological factors, such as fertility and contraception, but by equally powerful social factors. Quality of life is most powerful social force. Infant mortality especially important. Birthrate does not begin to fall appreciably until death rate is below 20/1000 If standard of living sufficiently high, population growth levels off The chief reason for the rapid rise in population in developing countries is that this basic condition has not been met. Colonialism = demographic parasitism. "The second, population-balancing phase of the demographic transition in the advanced country is fed by the suppression of that same phase in the colony." "inequitable rate of development among nations of the world" Birth control ineffective in india When GNP per capita per year exceeds $500 the birthrate drops sharply, reaching about 20/1,000 at $750-$1000 if the wealth of the world (at least as measured by GNP) were in fact evenly distributed among the people of the world, the entire world population should have a low birthrate - about 20/1,000 - which would approach that characteristic of most European and North American countries starvation is usually not caused by the insufficient production of food in the world, but by social factors that prevent the required distribution of food. we must redistribute that wealth, among nations and within them.

rubber

used by ancient Mesoamerican people -Olmec, Maya, Aztec -Europeans take rubber back with them -invent uses: erasers, raincoats -was it a resource for Europeans? no -invention of vulcanization (1839) -increase in price of rubber causes increase in wealth in Latin America -look for alternatives to combat high price of rubber in 1876, Henry Wickham takes seeds of rubber tree from Brazil -domesticated rubber trees take over -creation of rubber plantations in Asia -fraction of the cost of wild rubber -wild rubber collapses -from 100% of rubber resources (in 1905) to about 5-7% (in 1920) -synthetic rubber developed (in 1930) -60-70% of all rubber today is synthetic

Wage-risk method: The Value of Human Life (Also a kind of hedonic regression)

wage premium for risky job: WTA increase in risk of death -- Isolate the wage premium people are paid to accept risky jobs (police officer, firefighter, coal miner) With this it is possible to estimate a WTA an increase in the risk of death, and thus to estimate implicitly the value of life. Holding all else equal, suppose we observe that police officers receive extra pay of $500/yr. If the excess risk of death is 1/10,000 per year then collectively, 10,000 officers trade one of their lives each year for $500*10,000=$5 million.

renewable, non-substitutable

water, fertile soil (under more stress than non-renewable, substitutable)

are we running out according to malthus

yes -- exponential need for resources + fixed limits on availability resources = no good!

Fishing Stats

• 11 of the 15 major fishing areas and 69% of the world's fish species are in decline • Atlantic Cod: declined almost 70% percent (1968-1992) • Bluefin tuna: 80% drop (1970-1993) • Recall scarcity development cycle: dogfish, skate, and monkfish and other 'trash' fish. Bluefin tuna - Swordfish - Yellowfin tuna

Why would you fight to defend your country from invaders or threats if it might kill you? How do armies get staffed?

→ "Ahh! Our country is at risk from a belligerent neighbour! I don't want to lose my freedoms. I really hope lots of smart and strong citizens in my country answer the voluntary call to join the army. Personally, I can't because I'm afraid of blood and I don't like hardships very much. Unfortunately, it seems nearly everyone else feels the same way, so it looks like we will have a very small and weak army. This means I am even less inclined to join it, since we are even more likely to be killed in battle. We are doomed! We will lose everything! I would happily have joined to do my small part if all women and men were conscripted ... that would be so much better than losing everything." → "They gave me the choice of fighting in the army or going to jail! So of course I went and fought, along with all my sisters and brothers. And we easily held our ground, so it wasn't that bad. Of course, if not for the threat of jail, I still wouldn't have fought, since the army looked like it was going to be huge without me."

Why bother writing music, building a public sculpture, or producing a movie when they can be copied?

→ "As a talented young sculptor, I considered devoting my life to producing beautiful, thought-provoking, and heart-warming works of art for all to enjoy. Unfortunately, they are expensive to make and no one would pay me enough to make a living from it. Individuals loved my work but couldn't afford a reasonable price. so in the end I became a carpenter instead. I frame identical-looking rooms in new apartment buildings. I wish I could pursue my passion, make our city beautiful and special, and bring joy to the masses." → "I write music. People love my music, but I'm not a performer. Since everyone can copy it as soon as I publish it, it's never worth my effort to compose." → "My government has forced every citizen to pay a few dollars towards the funding of arts. Now we subsidize free outdoor concerts in the Place des Arts, subsidize live musicians in subways twice a week in every station, broadcast music over the radio and online, commission new music compositions, and we have a series of public art installations around town, all paid for collectively. Now millions of people are benefiting from the work of a few talented individuals who previously were not able to carry out their work. The cost to each of us is tiny compared with the benefit!" → "Public art is great for some media like sculpture, but choosing which artists to support is a really tough job for a government. Because we don't have a public voting system to choose whom to support, we have used another method to solve the non-excludability problem with non-rival art pieces. [The following is fanciful/hypothetical.] A new enforcement program to crack down on pirating of movies and music has limited our freedoms considerably, with many people being fined and jailed in the early days, but it has changed the landscape dramatically. Now we have a larger variety of music and movies, although we have to pay for them again. Still, because there is more to choose from, the prices are lower, and everyone seems better off."

Why buy an air conditioner with CFC coolant if you've read about the ozone hole? Why don't we now?

→ "I shopped for air conditioners and the high efficiency ones all used CFCs. Besides, the CFCs may be bad for the environment but there's an absolutely tiny amount in my one air conditioner, and it won't be released for 10 years or more anyway, ie when I dispose of the unit. I wish it wasn't an option. I wish all the air conditioners were using something else, but right now it's by far the cheapest thing so everyone else is going to buy the CFC models no matter what I do. I don't really have any power as an individual to affect the ozone problem." → "Now I don't have to feel bad or unethical when making the choice when buying an air conditioner. CFCs are not an option. They might cost a tiny bit more, but now we all know that the ozone layer is starting to repair itself. Besides, since all the manufacturers switched, I think the price of the alternative (HFCs) is not really higher than the CFC models used to be."

Why would you drive your car 50% faster than others when you are pressed for time? Why do you not, now?

→ "I'm not usually in a rush, so if I only speed occasionally when I really need to, my risk of injury is not too high overall. The problem is, there always seem to be a few others who are in a rush, so there are always a number of people speeding. This ends up making the road unsafe 100% of the time, and people are dying. Now I'm stressed 100% of the time when I'm on the road, instead of the 2% of the time when I'm in a rush. Wow, I'd even be willing to be late those few times I'm in a rush (ie, never speed) if only we could get rid of all those other speeding cars! But as it is now (without speed limits), others will still speed even if I chill out when I'm late; I can't seem to affect them by modeling patient behaviour." → "Now, with speed limits in place, everyone is going a sane pace, and mostly roughly at the same speed. I have lost some freedom (to go really fast), and now I'm occasionally late because I have to go the speed limit even when I'm in a rush, but it's totally worth it! because the road is so much safer and we are all not fearing for our lives all the time when driving."

Overgrazing examples from The Tragedy of the commons by Hardin

■ "the commons" ■ Cattle grazing on Western national forest land ■ Ocean depletion ■ Crowding of national parks ■ Pollution of air and water ■ Extinction of the plains bison

pre-industrial demographic transition

■ 99% of the time that humans have lived on Earth ■ Very high death rates and very high birth rates (or population won't be sustained) ■ CBR = CDR ■ Very slow population growth

collective action problem

■ A situation in which the members of a group would benefit by working together to produce some outcome, but each individual is better off refusing to cooperate and reaping benefits from those who do the work. ■ A perfect understanding of the situation doesn't change the incentives ■ The "Commons" ■ Open resources are limited (fishing, etc.) ■ Tragedy of the commons (with many more players, like fishing in the high sea) ■ Hardin says system is compelling each individual to act in his own best interest ■ Prisoner's dilemma ■ "Socially optimal" outcome is where all players cooperate ■ For any individual player, the non-cooperative action is preferred no matter what other players choose to do: a "dominant strategy" ■ Everybody acts against the cooperative outcome ■ Free-rider ■ Externality ■ Social cost

CBR dependent upon

■ Age structure of population ■ Birthrates and fertility rates will be high in a population with a low median age ■ Healthcare ■ Population control policy ■ Literacy levels

trends in population growth

■ Agricultural Revolution causes an increase in population growth ■ Industrial Revolution ■ Mass production --> massive increase in food production --> massive population growth ○ Mid 1300s: Bubonic plague ■ Wiped out nearly half of the European population ○ Less developed regions just keep increasing; the populations never stabilize ○ North America: 5% of the world population ○ Net population growth by 2100 will mostly be contributed by Africa ■ Challenges they face: environmental degradation, socio-economic conditions, etc. ■ Population will double every 30 years

Let people figure out what's good for them

■ Consider social externalities as forefront of planning ■ Education for well-being (non-cognitive skills) ■ Empower people, starting at a young age ■ Many things have permanent effects-- neuroplasticity ■ Huge opportunity for improving lives ■ Upon finding CAP, should expect it to fail (if no other higher enforcing body) ■ Individual Social Responsibility ■ Productive to think about collective solutions, not judge others ■ Currently have more land/ocean conserved than ever before

demographic trap

■ Countries may be stuck in stage 2 (transitional phase) where birth rates remain high even though death rates have declined, resulting in population growth ■ Countries in western Africa like Niger ■ Low CDR, but ■ Rural, subsistence economy (farming low-quality land) --> marginal lands --> need for family labor --> high birth rates ■ Results in large populations in rural areas ■ Vicious cycle ■ Environmental degradation (harder to grow food from farming too much) --> poverty --> (further) need for family labor --> high birth rates ■ High proportion of young living into adulthood due to low death rates-- high momentum ■ Countries like Niger have a very low median age ■ Economic output consumed to sustain growing population rather than to increase incomes, reduce need for children ■ Demographic trap: countries are stuck in this vicious circle of rapidly growing population and low death rate

Sweden

■ Currently has carbon tax ■ Extra revenue spent on public goods or returned to citizens

Industrial demographic transition

■ Death rates start bottoming out ■ Birth rates decline even further because of the reduced need for human labor as people move off of the land from agriculture into cities --> reduced need for children in the household ■ Birth rates start approaching the death rates ■ Population growth slows down ■ CBR > CDR

motivations for pro-natalism

■ Declining population ■ Political/military reasons (increase population for natural security) ■ Ethnic (adjust the ratios of ethnic groups)

Problems with MSY in fisheries' context

■ Difficult to count fish ■ Difficult to know which members of a population we're eating (young/old, strong/weak, male/female) ■ Methodological limitations (sampling, etc.) ● Stocks are overestimated since fisheries are collecting a lot from where they know they can catch a lot of fish ○ In addition to population growth rates, ecologists want to know survivorship traits, age structures, and distributions of populations ■ Age of first reproduction, probabilities of survival and reproduction at each age, litter size, litter frequency, longevity for individuals in a population ○ Target lower "rows" in population pyramid (older fish) will have less impacts on future generations from MSY standpoint ○ Eating baby fish will have more of an impact

coercive means of population growth

■ Discouraging, banning abortions (Romania, 1960s) ■ Baby bonuses (Singapore, Quebec) ■ Taxation policies-- tax deductions, credits ■ Maternity, paternity leave; childcare subsidies

Disaster is coming

■ Environmental catastrophe, humanity will be wiped out ■ Some people think it's a threat (to people) ■ If we're afraid of catastrophe (climate), those times are already here ■ Disempowering because not conducive to change ■ Makes people want to lock their doors or wait for disaster to strike

transitional demographic transition

■ Europe (1750s) right before the Industrial Revolution ■ Due to improvements in personal hygiene, public health, and nutrition, the death rates start declining ■ Birth rates stay very high ■ CBR >> CDR ■ Very rapid population growth ■ People become more confident that their children will survive into adulthood --> slight decline in birth rates much after death rates have declined and population growth starts coming down

Current Fossil Fuel Energy Infrastructure

■ Going carbon neutral changes everything already set in motion from investment and infrastructure, changes production patterns --> alters infrastructure; doesn't only change consumption ■ $55 trillion ■ Large fraction of GWP (global world product) ■ Can't replace existing infrastructure so quickly

Where responsibility lies for food systems

■ Government (can decide which crops to encourage growth or consumption) ■ Corporations (getting rid of "best before" dates) ■ Individuals

Carbon tax

■ Government decides on a price that should be paid for emission of GHG gases, doesn't know what emission quantity would be ■ Firms bringing fossil fuels into the economy buy permits at fixed price ■ Overall: maximum possible reduction for given cost ■ Everyone who's emitting is choosing whether to emit or not (doing BCA as an individual emitter), if it's worth to mitigate at the given price, they'll do it ■ Norway, Denmark

Why People have Children

■ High costs of procreation, especially for women-- incentive to have fewer children? ■ Costs: possibility of dying during childbirth, costs of raising a child, etc. ■ But women have little influence in reproductive decisions ■ Strong correlation between high fertility rates-- low levels of female literacy, high levels of unpaid home work, low shares of paid employment for women ■ Lack of female employment and income (particularly important)-- policy implications ■ If literate and had a job, women would be able to make more decisions (about reproduction) ■ Even when education is subsidized, it's difficult to send female children to school because it makes more economic sense for families to keep their children at home. Educated women are seen as difficult to marry off. ■ Solution: invest in paid employment for women (regardless of literacy levels) because the lack of it more directly and negatively affects their decision-making powers than does the lack of education. Also, if the women are working and have kids, they won't be able to bring home an income, so it's better for them to stay at work. ■ But large families due to more than gender inequality... ■ Personal, religious (maintenance of family lineage), socio-cultural (in subsistence economies, male children can help out and work in the fields), political (in feudal rural economies, male children increase the amount of power the family has due to kinship relationships), economic motivations-- pressure to maximize male children ■ Important economic considerations ■ Children incur costs, but on balance, children are highly productive assets. (benefits outweigh the costs) ■ In subsistence economies like in West Africa that are resource-constrained (lack of access to clean water, energy, etc.), people are working on low-quality lands with no mechanization, which means human labor is needed to work the fields. ■ Children contribute to the security of parents in their old age and to the current wellbeing of the family. ■ Children as young as 6 years old work each day to fetch water and firewood, help take care of livestock and siblings, and help with the cooking. ■ Small households are economically unviable ■ More resource constraints --> more marginal benefits of children working ■ High fertility --> high IMR, but also risk diversification and influence ■ Free access to common property resources; extended family ■ Childrearing is the responsibility of the extended family, not the parents ■ Benefits internalized, costs socialized ■ Cost: others (extended family taking care of children) ■ Environmental degradation costs are shared by everyone, but the benefits are totally internalized by the exploiters ■ Early marriage, large families

"Thin-air" carbon capture (engineering approach)

■ Is it feasible to suck CO2 out of the air? ■ Not much CO2 in the air, trying to extract it from the hardest possible place (thin air) ■ Will never cost more than cost of doing it this way

Spatial and Durational Environmental Effects of Transport

■ Local impacts (noise, health impacts like respiratory conditions) ■ Regional impacts ■ Global impacts (CO2, lasts in atmosphere but doesn't impact our own current health --> has impacts around the world)

Population Pyramid-- HICs

■ Much higher median age ■ Low proportion of young ■ Low fertility rates ■ Very slow population growth (could be 0) ■ Looks more like a trapezoid instead of a pyramid

"Later, longer, fewer"

■ Narrow the window in which women have children ■ Increase the amount of time between children as much as possible ■ Have fewer children ■ Increase marriage age ■ Total fertility ■ Education ■ Improve female literacy ■ Employment, income, empowerment --> increases marriage age due to employment ■ Marry later, lower fertility, invest in educating children ■ Family planning services, incentives

why canada has overpopulation problem

■ Other western industrialized countries have higher per capita consumption of resources ■ Bangladesh has a much larger population than Canada, but the Canadian population has a much higher effect on climate change than Bangladesh does ■ Rapid population growth and population size is mainly a problem due to its effects on the resources and the environment, so Canada has a serious overpopulation problem ■ Large populations in constrained areas do have serious effects on the environment, however

Environmental changes (oceans/ fishing)

■ Pollution, degradation and conversion of coastlines ■ Growing human population - 60% of which is within 100 kms of the ocean ■ Other system wide impacts - predator-prey relationships ■ Warming oceans (e.g. impact on anchovy stocks)

Applying our values

■ Pricing nature ■ Rights-based approach

CDR dependent upon

■ Quality and access of healthcare ■ Warfare ■ Median age

drivers for population growth

■ Rapid population growth globally despite falling birth rates ■ Dramatic drop in death rates ■ Since 1950, birth rates declining slightly more rapidly than death rates ■ Growth rates peaked in 1960s ■ Population growth-- even with falling Fertility Rate (even at replacement) and CBR ■ Because in the period before the fertility rate was reduced to replacement, when the rates were high, there were a large number of young people produced who are in their childbearing years who will then produce children who will go into childbearing years, etc. ■ Continued population growth over two or three generations ■ Couples are having a smaller number of children (at replacement rate), but there is a much larger number of these couples ■ Age structure of population-- high proportion of young ■ "Momentum"-- more people even if fewer children

Maximum sustainable yield

■ Renewable resources (fish, lumber, etc.) ○ Largest harvest/catch which can be extracted without reducing the capacity for future extraction

Focus on economic growth

■ Some uncertainty due to negative consumption externalities ■ Environmental and other social externalities associated with income ■ Quebec convergence ■ Ranked extremely highly in terms of life satisfaction ■ "The only sustainable growth is degrowth" ■ Simple thorn of this thinking: seems like the more we economically grow and consume, the more we hurt nature ■ Economic growth = material impacts on environment (this is what the quote suggests) ■ To reduce material impact, we need to decrease economic activity ■ Advocate of degrowth says true because energy use and growth seem to be coupled ■ Wrong because past is not the only guide ■ Out of date because we now have better measures of environmental impact and sustainability ■ Rather than thinking of economic growth as a proxy for environmental destruction, we should think of it as a statistic that has measurement problems and never meant to measure environmental destruction or human satisfaction ■ Need to create a different measure for that ■ We should focus discussion on measuring what matters, instead of using proxies like economic growth for inappropriate measures ■ Non-starter, won't be a platform that sells

Social cost of carbon vs. discount rate

■ Stern ■ Impact on everyone: $200 (or more if smaller discount rate is considered) for every ton emitted ■ High pure rate time preference: add percent or two onto discount rates --> large difference on how social cost of carbon is valued

Collective Action Problem (social trap, generalized prisoner's dilemma, etc.) occurs when

■ There's a pro-social action P which individuals can take. It has a cost to them, but a benefit for everyone. ■ Each individual is worse off if they take the action P, when it is independent of others' actions. ■ All individuals are better off if everyone takes the action P. ■ Formally ■ Private cost ( c) of P is greater than the private benefit (b) ■ The social benefit (B) of P is greater than the private cost. i.e.: b < c < B

Environment vs. human welfare

■ Thinking is often paralyzed; conflict between what's good for humans and what's good for environment (dichotomy) ■ Some truth, but makes people unable to believe/deal with future policies which include cutting back ■ Impossible for people to overcome cognitive dissonance until we're able to tell positive stories about the future ■ What we have learned about human well-being: what's good for human lives don't have strong material impacts ■ Because the opportunities for improving lives through non-material ways (social interactions, comfortable institutions, learning how to work together well) are huge --> credible policy stories for future where life is getting better for everyone ■ Need to overcome dichotomy before policies can become politically feasible

post-industrial demographic transition

■ Very low birth and death rates ■ Germany and Japan: birth rate < death rate, population would decline ■ CBR = CDR

UN World Population Projections

■ Very rapid growth since 1800-1900 ■ 1950: 2.5 billion ■ 1990: 5 billion ■ Now: 7.5 billion ■ 2100: 11.2 billion projected ■ Population rates peaked in the 1960s, and the growth rate is decreasing

Drug development

■Collective action problem: hard to capture all of the benefits from coming up with an idea (free to spread, will help others more than me) ■ Not developing drugs for people who need it most (in developing countries where people can't pay high drug prices) --> can't capture benefits of creating this

Mistakes lead to fear

○ Innovate less, take fewer risks ○ When people feel secure with their future and the environment, they're more far-sighted and pro-social

Pressures on Food

○ Rising incomes ■ More meat, eating higher on the food chain ○ Urbanization ■ Lifestyles, consumption patterns ○ Biofuels ○ Population growth ○ Urban sprawl ■ Only 5% of Canada's land is suitable for growing food ○ Global warming: Good for Canada? Longer growing season etc? ■ Can't see it as a solution because overall: • Reduced food production • Changed precipitation patterns • New pests and diseases • Evapotranspiration