Exam 2
endorsing of candidates
candidates represent groups interests more solid the group support, the more influence the leaders will have
horserace journalism
involves strategy of media coverage the claim that the media is more interested in covering a campaign like a horserace focusing more on who is ahead rather than in-depth coverage of issues. --> what are the candidates trying to do to win? --> comprises 42% of campaign coverage
term limits
laws that limit the number of terms elected officials can serve
trends in partisanship
less of the public considers themselves democrats the proportion of self identified indpendents has risen largest and most consistent differences in partisanship are between blacks and whites and education and income have a similar relationship gender gap: men more likely than women to be independent religion: jews more likely to be democrat as are other non christian religions or atheist peoples political ideology: liberals = D, conservatives = republican Independents believe in vote for the person not the party
house election trends
since 1950 the presidents party has lost an average of 24 seats in the House
overall trend in the tone of presidential nominees coverage from 1960-2016
since the 1960's the tone has become more and more negative and less positive --> especially in terms of fitness for office
hypothesis
statement of the relationship between two or more concepts formulated in a way that it can either be supported or not supported ex: Women are more likely to support legal abortion than men.
what other election was decided by the house of representatives
the election of 1824, jackson vs adams
7 point measure of Party ID
(1) Strong Democrat (2) Weak Democrat (3) Independent Democrat (4) Pure Independent (5) Independent Republican (6) Weak Republican (7) Strong Republican
partisan control of congress A timeline
1955-1980: Democratic control of both Houses 1981-1986: Republicans control the Senate 1987-1994: Democrats regain control of both 1995-2006: Republican control of the House (and a majority in the Senate for all but the 2001- 2002 period) 2007-2010: Democrats control both Houses 2011-2014: Democrats control the Senate; Republicans control the House 2015-2018: Republicans control both Houses
what aspects of a campaign get covered?
-novelty -conflict -skepticism
1948-1952
.5 million to 10 million households began to each have a tv (television became huge during this time)
voters in the primary elections tend to be AB or C (idk the answer lol)
.a) more ideological than the overall party-in-the-electorate b.) about the same ideologically as the overall party-in-the-electorate c.) less ideological than the overall party-in-the-electorate
reasons for incumbency advantage
1) The Institutional Characteristics of Congress (2) Constituency Service (3) Discouraging the Opposition (4) The Ability to Raise Campaign Funds
PAC Contributions, 2016 Elections Cycle graph (two takeaways from the graph)
1) industry actors differ in how much they give 2) overwhelming contribution to incumbent candidates (most sectors are 90% and above)
role of media in campaigns theory
1) informed consent of the governed 2) provide a window on the candidates 3)referee between the candidates
role of media campaigns-Theory
1) informed consent of the governed -media are an intermediary between candidates and voters providing them with the information to make a choice 2) provide a window on the candidates -enable voter to experience the candidates free from external manipulation (very difficult role in modern campaigns) 3) referee between the candidates -meida acts as a neutral third party that checks campaign claims -adwatch campaigns
understand the importance of incumbents and the reasons for incumbency advantage: (4 reasons, list them)
1) the institutional characteristics of congress 2) constituency Service 3) discouraging the opposition 4) the ability to raise campaign funds
how many faithless have there been since the founding of the electoral college
167 (in 2016 there were 7) but these failures have never had an impact on the outcome of the election
how interest groups influence campaigns
1. direct contributions to candidates and parties through their PAC's ( PAC contributions have increase SIGNIFICANTLY over tie 2. independent expenditures 3. endorse candidates 4. engage in traditional campaign activities (get out the vote, newsletters and emails) 5. work within the parties(influence platform and work on strategies to defeat the opposition) 6. give group ratings
impact of conventions (3 main impacts)
1. heighten interest, thereby increasing turnout 2. arouse latent feelings and raise partisan awareness 3. color perceptions, thereby affecting personal judgments of the candidates and their issue stands
convention delegates characteristics (timeline and party differences)
1968 was the last year in which the conventions were controlled by party leadership 1972 saw the high point in direct voter involvement following the 1968 changes 1972-1988 the rules changed again giving control back to the party leaders while maintaining a more open system since 1988 the rules for selecting the national convention delegates have not changed the changes have overall been more evident in the democratic party than in the republican party though there has still been an impact upon republicans
initiatives and referenda in 2018
20 dealing with elections policy 8 dealing with restrictions or limitations on taxes 7 dealing with legalization of medical or recreational marijuana 5 dealing with Medicaid expansion 4 dealing with fossil fuel and renewable energy 3 dealing with abortion 2 dealing with minimum wage
2016 convention delegates needed to win the nomination
2016, there were 4,765 delegates to the Democratic convention (714 of whom were superdelegates) - 2,383 votes were needed to win the nomination
2018 generic ballot prediction
2018: In the traditional generic ballot model, a 7.5 point lead for Democrats among likely voters suggests a Democratic gain of between 9 and 49 seats, with a 29 seat pick-up the most likely outcome.
Presidential term limits
22nd amendment
qualifications for House
25, citizen for 7 years, and resident of state article 1 section 2
Qualifications for Senate
30 yrs old, citizen for 9 years, live in state article 1 section 3
Qualifications for President
35 years old, born in the U.S., and has to have lived in the U.S. for 14 years
Since the Civil War, in how many off-year Congressional elections has the President's party NOT lost seats in the House of Representatives?
3: 1874, Democrats take the Senate, leading to the end of Reconstruction 1994: Republicans took both chambers of Congress for the first time since 1952. 2010: With the rise of the Tea Party, Republicans took the House, resulting in massively controversial gerrymandering.
Independent Expenditures
527 groups, 501(c) and independent expenditure only groups (Super PACS) can make independent expenditures and can advocate for the election of a candidate as long as this spending is not coordinate with or controlled by a candidates campaign --> citizens untied court ruling open the flood case
ways to characterize interest groups
9 major types first five have economic component 1) business groups (ex chamber of commerce) generally dvocate for conservative policy 2) agricultural groups ( ex American Farmers Union we distinguish them because they are so successful even though less than 2% of the population and super successful in price supports and getting gov to buy surplus food and famine relief etc etc 3) labor groups (labor unions: private sector labor unions, United Mine workers etc. groups that argue for the benefit of workers, right to strike legislation, wage legislation) 4) public employee groups (similar to labor groups, but public sector and have separate category because traditional labor unions have seen sig decrease in membership in political power while public employee groups have drastically increased in power , like teachers unions) 5) professional groups (groups like american institute of architects and american medical association these are groups that individuals of the same profession try to organize public policy to benefit their own sector (health care, pay rates etc) 6) environmental groups (Nat. Wildlife Assoc. Green Peace, environmental issues have increased in awareness since 1970's, push for clean air act, clean water, endangered species, etc. Strong active membership 7) public interest groups : league of women voters, common cause, generally advocate for policies that will make better government and be in public interest, so get out the vote interest and campaign legislation reform (common cause) etc. 8) single interest groups: groups that focus on one single issue (national abortion, right to life society) going to put all resources on one particular issue of import to them 9) foreign governments : foreign gov are interested in trade, good mutual defense policy, and use these opportunities to lobby and get policies that benefit both countries.
Convention Bounce
A Presidential candidate's surge in popularity immediately following the formal nomination at a national convention, with all the attendant media coverage and public interest.
party-centered campaigns
A campaign in which the party coordinates activities, raises money, and develops strategies.
third party candidates
A different party other than the Democrats or Republicans such as the Green Party and the Libertarians. They will never usually get enough votes to win, but they can swing the election. The Populist Party was a 3rd party candidate during the progressive era in which many of the ideas were adopted into the democratic platform. Sometimes force one or both of the two dominant parties to shift their political platforms.
McGovern-Fraser Commission
A commission formed at the 1968 Democratic convention in response to demands for reform by minority groups and others who sought better representation. specified that nominating procedures must be changed to make the process more open, timely, and representative all states must adopt procedures consistent with these principles
hybrid primary
A primary election system that has elements of both closed and open primary systems.
closed primary
A primary in which only registered members of a particular political party can vote
top two system
A primary system where all candidates - regardless of political party affiliation - run together on one ballot, with the first and second place vote getters advancing to the general election.
battle ground state
A state in which no candidate has overwhelming support, so that both of the major party candidates have a reasonable chance of capturing the state's electoral votes. i.e., a state in which the election for the Presidency is expected to be competitive florida, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin
men who won even though they received less popular votes
Adams Hayes Harrision Bush Trump
unit rule
All of a state's electoral votes are cast for the presidential candidate receiving a plurality of the popular vote in that state. --> maine and nebraska have exceptions to this
trends in senate elections
Although the odds favor Senate incumbents, they have not been as consistently successful at winning re-election. Since 1946, 79.5% have won re-election 4.4% have lost in primaries 16.0% have lost in the general election
Twelfth Amendment
An amendment to the Constitution, adopted in 1804, that specifies the separate election of the president and vice president by the electoral college.
where is the method for selecting the president located
Article 2 section 1 4 year term, natural born citizen, 35 years old, resident for 14 years VP cant be from the same state
south carolina campaign fundraising limits
Candidates may not accept more than the following amounts from individuals during an election cycle: $3500 for statewide candidates; or $1000 for local candidates. Candidates may not accept more than the following amounts from political parties during an election cycle: $50,000 for statewide candidates; or $5,000 for local candidates.
split-ticket voting
Casting votes for candidates of one's own party and for candidates of opposing parties, e.g., voting for a Republican presidential candidate and a Democratic congressional candidate. highest occurrence in 1972 and late 1988
17th Amendment
Direct election of senators senators were originally chosen by the state legislature and this was amended in 1913
trends in house elections
During the period from 1946 - 2016 only 1.6% of House members have lost in primary elections and only six percent have lost in general elections incumbents have a massive advantage in being reelected Even in years very unfavorable to one of the parties, a large majority of its House incumbents return: In 1994, which had been the Democrats worst year since 1946, 84% of the House Democrats who sought reelection won. In 2006, a bad year for Republicans, 90% of the Republican incumbents won In 2010, 22% of Democratic incumbents were defeated in the general election
Microtargeting (Narrowcasting)
Gathering detailed information on cross sections of the electorate to track potential supporters and tailor political messages for them; also called narrowcasting.
who was the first to use radio in campaigns
Hardy
House vs Senate Incumbency
House districts gerrymandered; Senators run state-wide Senate challengers more qualified Challengers can use campaign resources more effectively Senators not able to build close ties with constituents Senators are more visible
patterns for the presidents party in the house of reps during mid term elections
In every mid-term election between 1934 and 1998 (economic context booming during midterms for clinton with approval rating at 66%) the President's party lost seats in the House of Representatives; only in 1998 and 2002 did this pattern not hold (high approval rating for bush because of strong reaction to 9/11) (This pattern goes back to the Civil War, and only one other time since that period has a President's party not lost seats in the House in the mid-term elections.)
Election of 1824 (Corrupt Bargain)
Jackson won 99 electoral votes , to adams' 84 but did not win the majority in the electorate and the election was decided in the house and they voted adams as president instead prompting jackson to refer to this as the corrupt bargain --> significant because it was the firs time (not the last ) that despite winning the majority in the electoral college jackson did not become president also jackson won even though he received less popular votes which was the first and not the last time that this would happen (Donal Trump In 2016)
factors explaining outcomes in congressional elections
Incumbency --> name recognition and keeping in touch with district Party Identification Economic Performance Presidential Approval Exposure
the election of 1800
Jefferson and Burr each received 73 votes in the Electoral College, so the House of Representatives had to decide the outcome. The House chose Jefferson as President and Burr as Vice President. prompted the twelfth amendment
what is the impact of the media?
Limited, but not unimportant (most voters have already decided) Much of campaign advertising is targeted at that small percentage of undecided, "swing" voters who can make the difference in a closely contested election.
voter suppression in North Dakota
Native American residents of North Dakota have been left scrambling to meet a voter ID requirement that could render many ineligible to vote in the upcoming November mid-term elections. The Supreme Court declined to overturn the GOP-backed voter law, which requires North Dakotans to show identification with their current street address. Many Native American reservations do not use physical street addresses; therefore, the law makes it difficult for thousands of people to cast their ballots. Native American residents often use PO boxes as mailing addresses, but PO boxes do not qualify as proof of residency under the voter ID law. As a result, many voters will have to make the effort to obtain identification or documents, such as a tribal voting letter issued by tribal officials, that provide proof of a residential address. will be a major issue in the ND race in which incumbent democrat is trying to retain her seat
partisan stability
Partisan attachments are persistent Roughly 3 in 4 cling to the same party allegiance they held in the previous Presidential election Weak partisans show more movement than do strong ones Movement from one party to another is quite rare Most common transition is independents moving in and out of the parties
who was most effective at using radio to campaign
President roosevelt's campaign
open primary
Primaries in which each voter may choose one party's ballot or the other.
closed primary
Primaries in which only voters enrolled in a particular party may participate. preferred bc they contribute to strong party organization
Impact of media on politics
Setting the political agenda by reporting on issues that they perceive as important. --> most of votes have already been decided so in close elections they often target swing voters --> choose which candidates to cover --> attract partisan audiences --> provide a direct line of info to the masses --> fake news and negative bias can result but fake news especially when comparing clinton and trump is not statistically evident often
presidential coattails
Successful candidates for the Presidency pull some of their party's candidates into office along with them (riding, as it were, on their coattails) Coattail effects can occur because people prefer to vote for candidates sharing their presidential favorite's party affiliation, or both choices may be influenced by the same set of short term conditions. measured by the number of house races or senate races in which the presidential candidate has a higher percentage of the popular vote than the winning candidate in the presidents party evidence suggests that coattail effects are declining
Super Tuesday
The Tuesday during the primary election season on which the most delegates are chosen.
American National Election Studies
The approach that was adopted in 1952 has continued (with some variations) through today. In each even numbered year from 1956 through 2004. the hallmark of these election studies has been a continuity in questions over the decades which has allowed for cross-time comparisons. Findings: The relationship between class, religion, race, and age and turnout as well as vote choice The nature and consequences of citizens' views on issues, parties and candidates The notion that party identification could have a psychological component The formation, maintenance and change of partisan identification
trends since 1994 in voting behaviors for congressional elections
The emergence of two fairly evenly matched and more polarized national parties and the increase in the number of safe seats (as a result of redistricting) has led to more and more resources being concentrated in fewer races.
Strom Thurmond and George Wallace
The last two third party candidates to receive Electoral College votes were ______________ (39 in 1948) and ______________(45 in 1968)
Frontloading
The recent tendency of states to hold primaries early in the calendar in order to capitalize on media attention.
Motor Voter Bill of 1993
This allows a person to register to vote when they go to the motor vehicle office to renew their driver's license or to renew their car tags
Commission on Presidential Debates
This commission establishes the way presidential election debates are run. The Commission negotiates who gets to debate, the location of the debate, the moderator, the debate format, etc. candidate has to meet the constitutional rules be on the ballot in enough states to have a chance of winning a majority of electoral votes demonstrate sufficient electoral support by reiceiving an average of 15% or more in public opinion polls
Commission on Presidential Debates
This commission establishes the way presidential election debates are run. The Commission negotiates who gets to debate, the location of the debate, the moderator, the debate format, etc. Every minute detail is planned in advance and approved by the Commission. In a historic move the Commission allowed Ross Perot to debate with Pres. Bush and Gov. Clinton in 1992.
Hybrid Primary
Voters who have not previously chosen a political party have the option to choose which party's primary to vote in, while voters registered with a party may only vote in that party's primary
indirect election
When government officials are elected by previously chosen representatives, and not directly by the people
interest group
a collection of people with the shared goal of influencing public policy that does not run its own candidates for office
Faithless elector
a member of the US electoral college who does not vote for the presidential or vice presidential candidate for whom they had pledged to vote
initiative
a procedure by which the voters can propose a change in state and local laws by gathering signatures on a petition. Used in 24 states (not South Carolina) Number of signatures required varies across states, but it is generally some percentage of voters in the last gubernatorial election (typically around 10%). part of direct democracy
Recall
a procedure enabling voters to remove an elected official from office before his or her term had expired. Used in 19 states and the District of Columbia (not South Carolina). recall is not frequently exercised. process: involves petitions (generally 10% - 40% of the vote in the last election for the office in question). part of direct democracy
median voter theorem
a proposition predicting that when policy options can be arrayed along a single dimension, majority rule will pick the policy most preferred by the voter whose ideal policy is to the left of half of the voters and to the right of exactly half of the voters
crosstab
a table displaying the relationship between two variables
at-large elections
an election for an area as a whole; for example, statewide
winner-take-all system
an election system in which the candidate with the most votes wins for republicans only in the delegate selection process
Referendum
an electoral device whereby legislative or constitutional measures are referred by the legislature or placed on the ballot to be voted on. (Generally used for controversial or "important" matters.) proposed by the legislature and directed to voters for approval (or disapproval); used in 26 states (and can be used in all states for amendments to state constitutions) part of direct democracy
context of the 2018 house elections
an unusually high number of incumbents are not seeking reelection and so there is a greater opportunity for the seat to change parties yet the house only slightly switched to the democratic party. So though this does side with the presidents party historically losing the majority, given this incumbency context and the "blue wave" predicted, the blue trickle is surprising and could be related to the polarization and economic prosperity currently happening
first president to decline funding for the general election and was able to outspend opponent 3 to 1 and what did this set for the future
barack obama in 2008 set precedent for none of the major party contenders taking public money. Maine is a great example of public financing still being used for state legislature elections
empirical
based on the world of sensory experience (phenomena that can be directly observed or inferred on the basis of observed behavior)
citizens United court case prompted obama to sign what legislation and why
because of recognition of private funding and from outside group from this court case (doesn't advantage any individual candidate) april 3rd 2014 obama signed legislation to end the public funding of presidential nomination party conventions
why did we see a sharp increase in public funding after 2000
citizens United court ruling (corporations could spend money and have the same free speech rights as citizens) 1) Mcaine finegold ruling in 2002 --> contributions of soft money to parties is outlawed so money that was going to party voting then found its way in rise of 527 groups and indpenedent expenditure 2) FEC v Wisconsin right to life these groups can now use funds for advocacy adds rules of the game changed to allow independent to spending to have a greater impact so it increased dramatically
add-on delegates
convention delegates added to the total a state would normally be allocated in order to accommodate certain party and elected officials
Electoral College System
delegates assign to each state a number of electors equal to the total of that state's representatives and senators; instituted because the delegates at Philadelphia feared that too much democracy might lead to mob rule
superdelegates
delegates to the convention who hold their seats by virtue of their office, for example, members of the House, Senators, and Governors. [Applies to Democrats only, although the Republicans do have unpledged delegates --> beginning in 2020 candidates will no longer be able to count superdelegates if they want to win the party's nomination on the first ballot of voting at the convention to make it impossible for superdelegates to change the outcome of the pledged delegates will
factors impacting voter turnout
demographics (age, race, gender, SES) election type (lower in primaries, local and off year elections) voting laws electoral competitiveness
one of the controversial criteria from the commission on presidential debates
demonstrate sufficient electoral support by receiving an average of 15 percent or more in the public opinion polls
cross pressures definition and two examples
disagreement or conflict between the views of two or more groups with which an individual has some connections --> ex: labour union ember and member of the NRA and in the election of focus the democratic candidates is espousing policy that will help labor union but also taking policy limiting NRA so NRA has come out endorsing Republican candidate. --> african american candidate who is a small business owner.
potential confound. confusing
dont mix up interest groups and PAC's interest groups can have PAC's BUT there is a distinction between broader interest group and the PAC that may be apart of it.
elector college
each state has the number of house reps + number of senators and each person gets two votes
public financing: what is it, what established it
established in the 1974 federal election campaign only candidates seeking nomination by political party to the office of presidents are eligible to receive primary matching funds be able to distinguish between federal state local have to establish yourself as a serious candidate (5,000 or more in 20 states, aka 100,000 dollars AND only the first $250 per individual contribution so need about 400 ppl per 5,000 dollars. )
prediction for the house 2019
factors: economic conditions and presidential approval projection: the dems will gain between 23 and 27 seats in the house
why is the election of 1800 significant
first real test of the new democracy under the constitution jefferson vs burr electoral college was supposed to let jefferson win by 1 vote but the college person forgot or something lmao idk and so they tied so the election was decided by the house of representatives this demonstrated the need to change the electoral college votes ( 12th amendment )
party conventions (4 things)
formal nomination of the candidate rules on credential disputes and changes in the party rules develop the party platform select the VP nominee
how is public financing changing?
from 1976 to 1996 virtually all candidates accepted primary election matching fund but 2000 2004 candidates began to erode support for public funding because they thought they could raise more on their own and didn't want to be limited.
context and implications for media and its role in campaigns and elections
general functions of media in society: -entertainment -report the news -identify public problems -socializing new generation -providing a political forum -making profits aka media sets the agenda most of the news outlets are profit making organizations which influences HOW they report things
eligible candidates may receive public funds equaling up to ______ if they qualify
half is matched by federal matching fund if you qualify.
why is public financing important
helps in to limit possibilities of corruption
electoral strategy for the primaries
hold on to your party supporters capture a majority of independents try to attract some members of the opposing party
in contributing money to candidates, PAC's
in terms of partisanship, PAC's like to hedge their bets. Contributions are generally fairly equal. However, PAC's are much more likely to give to incumbents than to challengers 1) industry actors differ in how much they give 2)
candidates must agree to what in public financing for primary elections
limit campaign spending for all primary elections to 48.07 million limit primary campaign spending in each state to 200,000 (plus adjustment for voting age population) limit spending from personal funds to 50,000 dollars
attempts to influence policy is through:
lobbying and indirect technique like generating public pressure
impact of television on campaigns
made mass appeals easier a candidate's physical appearance as well as oratorical skill became more important television replaced the party as the principal link between the nominees and the voters decreased the incentive for holding large numbers of campaign events required that activities be more carefully orchestrated
list the different impacts of television on campaigns:
made mass appeals easier a candidates physical appearance and oratorical skill became more important television replaced the party as the principal link between the nominees and the voters decreased the incentive for holding large numbers of campaign events (whistle stop tours far less necessary) required that activities be more carefully orchestrated (is social media the new television??)
swing voters
members of the electorate who have not made up their minds at the start of a campaign and are open to persuasion by either side
evolution of campaigns
nominees involved "front-porch" campaigns extensive campaign appearances the use of radio "whistle-stop" campaigns television "new media"
what aspects of the campaign get covered?
novelty, personality, conflict, skepticism, strategy
Superdelegates
party leaders and elected officials who become delegates to the national convention without having to run in primaries or caucuses
General election rules for presidential election
presidential nominee of each party is eligible for a public grant must limit spending to the amount of grant may not accept private contributions for the campaign may spend up to 50,000 of own money
referenda
process by which people vote directly on a bill
group ratings definition
rate the candidates record on issues important to the organization often very biased (see slides on the American Civil Liberties Union )
why is 1994 a historic year for congressional elections
referred to as an historic year because it was the first time in 42 years that the Republicans had captured both Houses of Congress. Part of the groundwork for 1994 was laid in 1992. which was the first election under the redistricting that followed the 1990 Census. And the way in which the district lines were redrawn - with the increased number of majority-minority districts contributed to one of the largest partisan turnovers in history, with 110 new members and with the Republicans gaining ten seats, though not enough to give them a majority (still trailed, 258 - 176).
media:
regular communicators of information designed to reach large audiences --television, newspapers, radio, social media
Caucus
relatively closed meetings in which registered partisans gather and vote to select delegates to the county or state party conventions
functions of media
reporting the news, identifying public problems, socializing new generations, providing a political forum, making profits, entertainment
Mikulski Commission
restricted participation in the nomination process to democrats only -required that delegates be allocated proportionately among contenders with at least 15% of the votes cast
who is associated with whistle-stop campaigns
roosevelt, then harry truman both used these tactics very effectively
open seat election
seats in which no incumbent is running for re-election usual feature hotly contested primaries because the opportunity of an open seat attracts more and better qualified candidates more expensive bc so competitive Votes are cast more consistently along party lines, so election results reflect state or district partisanship more consistently
party platforms
statements of the direction in which the parties want the country to go --> point out real differences between the parties --> provide a means to reach out to various groups that are important to the party
last two third party candidates to receive electoral college votes
storm thurmond (39 in 1948) and george wallace (45 in 1968)
Narrowcasting
targeting media programming at specific populations within society
window concept
the concept that primaries and caucuses selecting delegates to the presidential nominating conventions must be held between certain dates on the calendar relates to the trend in the direction of restoring some control to the party leaders since the Mikulski commission
1948 Election Study
the crystallization of the vote from October intentions to November decisions the personal, attitudinal, and demographic characteristics of voters and non-voters; and the influence of various psychological, sociological, and political factors on the vote
efforts to increase turnout include
the motor voter bill (1993) same day registration early voting absentee voting mail voting
generic ballot
the percentage of voters in national surveys who say they intend to vote for either the Republican or the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in their district.* *(If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?) it has proven to be an accurate predictor of the partisan distribution of the national vote. In years when Democrats have a large advantage in the generic ballot (e.g., 1974, 1982 and 2006) they are generally highly successful. In years when the generic ballot indicates a close race (or even a Republican lead) it is generally a good year for the Republicans (e.g.,1994 - R's gain control).
dependent variable
the phenomenon thought to be influenced, affected, or caused by some other phenomenon; the variable the researcher is interested in explaining
independent variable
the phenomenon thought to influence, affect or cause some other phenomenon; the variable thought to be responsible for differences in the dependent variable.
front loading:
the practice of moving presidential nominating contests to the early part of the calendar to maximize the impact of these primaries on the nomination.
common trend for the house of representatives
the presidents party loses seats in the mid term elections
operational definition
the statement of the procedures used to measure a concept ex: Do you think it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if the woman wants it for any reason?
adwatch campaigns
to check political accuracy of political advertising
confirmation bias
voters listen to news supporting their candidate or only believe ads that support their choice