exam 3 quiz questions

The worst possible detector is one with _____% accuracy

50%

Consider the following statements about tests and test results: I. A test must be observable to be useful. II. A test may be material but not relevant. III. A test may be relevant but not economic. Which of the above statements are true?

I and III only

Consider the decision diagram below. How many of the following statements must be true? I. Uncertainty B has been observed at the time of Decision D. II. Uncertainty B has been observed at the time of Decision E. III. Uncertainty A has been observed at the time of Decision E. IV. Uncertainty C has been observed at the time of Decision E.

II and III

After an airline accident is reported in the news, individual assessments of the likelihood of being in an airline accident increase dramatically. This is an example of which heuristic?

availability

_______________ are thought process errors that cause a person's beliefs to improperly reflect his or her perceptions.

cognitive biases

Anchoring happens when we put too little weight on our priors.

false

the _____ determines the bounds of your present decision.

frame

Consider the following distinction of interest: ResEc 313 Grade Which of the following would NOT be a relevant observed distinction.

graduation date

The _______________ value is the interval between the 25% fractile and the 75% fractile.

mid-range

An overly narrow mid-range indicates...

overconfidence

Consider the following decision diagram. The arrow between Uncertainty B and Uncertainty C is a _____ arrow

relevance

A detector's _____ is the chance of the detector indicating a 'bad' result given that the 'bad' result occurs.

sensitivity

Consider the following decision diagram. True or false? The Value of Clairvoyance on Uncertainty A at the time of Decision E equals zero.

true

The posterior distribution, or posterior probability, is the updated belief about the distinction of interest after the results of an experiment are known.

true

Using probabilities instead of the English language can increase clarity because individuals may interpret words differently.

true