Global Climate Change Midterm 3
Social justice can be a difficult concept to define, and it is highly contested by some who fear that it is code for 'socialism'. However, most philosophical approaches to social justice take one of two perspectives. Briefly summarize these two perspectives.
(1) "Social justice deals with the distribution of good (advantages) and bad (disadvantages) in society, and more specifically, with how these things should be distributed." (2) Social justice boils down to the redistribution of wealth; the 'haves' always have too much and the 'have nots' never have enough. ← I'm not super certain this is the 2nd answer? If he's looking for the two explanations of social justice that are at odds with one another, these are it.
Boyd (2008) ranked various geoengineering proposals based on four criteria: efficacy, affordability, safety, and rapidity. How do the various proposals compare relative to these criteria?
(highest to lowest) Efficacy- (OScGA) 1. Ocean fertilization 2. (tied) Stratospheric aerosols, cloud whitening, 3. geochemical carbon capture 4. Atmospheric carbon capture Affordability- (COSgA) 1. Cloud whitening 2. Ocean fertilization 3. (tied) stratospheric aerosols and geochemical carbon capture 4. Atmospheric carbon capture Safety- (ACgSO) 1. Atmospheric carbon capture 2. (tied) cloud whitening and geochemical carbon capture 3. stratospheric aerosols 4. Ocean fertilization Rapidity- (CsAGO) 1. (tied) cloud whitening and stratospheric aerosols 2. atmospheric carbon capture 3. geochemical carbon capture 4. Ocean fertilization
Briefly summarize two of the climate change adaptation case studies discussed in class.
1. Bangladesh: Rising sea levels cause saltwater floods that kill crops. Sea levels rise faster than anywhere else on the planet! Forcing people to move to slums. Ideas for adaptation: move to developed nations ($$ is an issue though), more seawalls, foreign aid, etc. 2. New York City: New designs to help city not be underwater. Ideas for adaptation: coral reef made out of recycled glass, sea ships, inflatable infrastructure, etc. Already plan to plant more trees! With the land that's underwater they want to use it as a wetland for recreation 3. Bolivia: Flooding has destroyed immense amount of crops. Began using both Ancient traditions of farming and modern knowledge of agriculture. Built 'camellones' ( raised fields). Besides preventing the crops from being washed away, the trenches act as natural irrigation systems, and can be used for sustainable fish farming,
Geoengineering proposals typically suggest one of two approaches to reducing the impact of climate change. Explain the fundamental differences of these two approaches, and provide two examples of specific proposals for each.
1. Carbon dioxide removal- forestation, CO2 capture from air plus storage, Ocean Iron Fertilization · 2. Solar radiation management- reflective aerosols, cloud seeding, space mirrors Carbon dioxide removal remedies anthropogenic activities, while Solar radiation management doesn't address anthropogenic consumption
47) In the near-term, the Columbus area has three primary climate change-related risks. Identify these risks and explain why the city's poor are disproportionately vulnerable to each of them.
1. Heat mortality (can't afford AC) 2. Increase in intensity of storms (due to flooding) and their inability to cope with damages caused by storms 3. Food prices (because damage to crops)
The filmmakers who produced The Great Global Warming Swindle presented several pieces of evidence that they argued proves that climate change is either not occurring or is, at the very least, not being caused by human activities. Identify two of these lines of evidence, as well as reasons why each of these was later shown to be incorrect.
1. Natural because it's happened before (medieval warming period). WRONG because the warming period was of a paper by Monly measured in Europe and thus was not valid. Doesn't follow the same historic patterns. 2. 2 is the strongest greenhouse gas due to its absorption spectrum. 3.The Stratosphere isn't warming so neither is the planet. False-because GH effect IS what is causing it.CO2 is only 0.05% of the atmosphere and thus can't matter. WRONG because humans cause imbalance and keep more CO2 in the atmosphere, which causes rising temperatures. And we know CO
Large river deltas are among those areas that are most vulnerable to climate change. Identify the world's three delta regions considered to be at extreme risk, explain why people are drawn to live in these areas, and describe at least two ways in which climate change is expected to impact these deltas.
1. Nile, Egypt 2. Ganges, India/Bangladesh 3. Mekong, SE Asia People are drawn to live here because of fishing industries (obtaining large amounts of protein), fertile land, access to water, large cities, food, etc. -as well as transportation Two ways climate change impacts these deltas: 1. Salt intrusion into freshwater resources 2. Agriculture destroyed 3. Coast erosion
21) The IPCC has cataloged anticipated impacts of climate change on four sectors of society (agriculture, water resources, health, and industry) due to increased incidence of extreme weather and climate events. Identify two types of extreme phenomena that expected to increase, and describe how these phenomena will impact each of these sectors.
1. Rising sea level. Agriculture: crops destroyed, Water resources: salinization of irrigation water, Health: Less clean water causes disease, Industry: Buildings and houses ruined by floods 2. Areas affected by droughts increases: Agriculture: land degradation & lower yields, Human health: less livestock and plants to eat, Water resources: more stress on distribution & less water available so need better irrigation systems, Industry: Increase risk of wildfires can ruin buildings
What are second generation biofuels and how do they compare with other biofuels such as corn, soybeans and canola?
1st generation: food crops grown using traditional agriculture methods. Ex= corn, soybeans, etc. Not that green because they require a lot of water, pesticides, and take up a lot of space 2nd generation: Not food crops, not grown using traditional agriculture methods. Require more technology and are more sustainable! Ex= wood waste, landfill waste, algae, etc.
Explain the concept of resilience and discuss how it relates to ecosystems and climate change
Ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning the capacity for self-organization, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change. In simpler terms, ecosystems can change and that's okay as long as they can return to past state.
Differentiate between the concepts of adaptation and mitigation in addressing global climate change.
Adaptation is how we respond to the perturbation in the climate system (adjusting to an increase in the GHGs). "Adjust to problem" Mitigation is the anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of GHGs (like focusing on decreasing GHGs in the first place). "Avoid the problem"
5 indicators of changing climate condition, describe behavior, one indicator from ocean, atmosphere, land.
Atmosphere-certain that troposphere has warmed since mid 20th century (averages) atmosphere-more frequent heat waves, changes in extreme weather events, atmosphere-more heavy precipitation in the past 100 years, frequency/intensity greater. Ocean: sea level rise, glacier loss, Cryosphere: greenland, antarctic ice sheets losing mass, less spring snow cover
Explain why the emissions scenarios created by the IPCC and used by scientists to model potential future climate cannot be considered true predictions or forecasts.
Because they are just numbers, they are no longer the global visio Scientists cannot predict which scenario is the most likely because the future pathway is a function of HUMAN CHOICES. Ultimately, climate scenarios involve many societal and policy decisions but also feedbacks constrained by thermodynamics and biogeochemistry
38) The greatest proportion of global renewable energy presently comes from which source?
Bioenergy (such as 1st and 2nd generation biofuels)
23) Most plants are categorized as either C3 or C4, based on the way they fix carbon during the process of photosynthesis. How do C3 and C4 plants differ in their ability to capitalize on the increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere?
C3 plants have stomata, which allow plants to lose water because they are like pores in the leaves. The water evaporates from the stomata. When it is hot out, the stomata close so the O2 in the plant can build up, but CO2 can't enter. These plants need CO2 to produce O2. On the other hand, C4 plants store CO2 in their mesophyll because they don't have stomata. The CO2 in these plants are bonded to cells, so it can be used whenever necessary. Both types of plants grow better with CO2, but C3 plants do not grow well with an increased temperature like the C4 plants do. · The Carbon Dioxide "fertilization" effect. A positive effect of increased co2 is the boost to growth in plants given by additional co2. Higher co2 concentrations stimulate photosynthesis, enabling plants to fix carbon at a higher rate. (greenhouse gases?) This is high in C3 plants: wheat, rice, and soy bean, but less in c4 plants: maize, sorghum, sugar cane, millet etc... Ozone exposure limits co2 response in both crops and forests, But studies indicate that the benefit of increased co2 does not always overcome the effects of excessive heat and drought.
27) Climate change and other human activities are causing what some have called the "Sixth Extinction". How has the extinction rate (extinctions per thousand species per millennium) changed over the long term average extinction rate, and how is this expected to change in the future?
Extinction happens naturally. In the distant past extinction was rare. The rate of extinction was about 1 per every thousand mammal species went extinct. The current extinction rate is over one thousand times higher than it was during the fossil records. The projected extinction rate is thought to be ten times what the current rate is now.
Capacity factor is identified in Fridley (2010) as a key indicator of electric power generation efficiency. What is meant by 'capacity factor", and how do the capacity factors of solar and wind power compare with those of other methods of electricity generation?
Capacity factor: is a measure of how often an electric generator runs for a specific period of time. It compares how much electricity a generator actually produces with the maximum it could produce at continuous full power operation during the same period. Our current electricity system is dominated by large baseload coal- and nuclear-power generation. The integration of intermittent energy forms such as solar and wind is increasingly seen as a matter of expanding transmission capacity and grid interconnections to extend the area over which these variations are felt, as well as implementing more complex operations controls. This approach relies on strengthening and expanding the large centralized energy production and distribution model that has characterized the fossil-fuel era, but may not necessarily be suitable for a future of renewable energy generation. The key to evening out the impact of intermittency is storage; that is, the development of technologies and approaches that can store energy generated during periods of good wind and sun for use at other times.
At one point, President Nasheed says that the question of climate change impacts on his country is about basic human rights. How does he, and other Maldivian leaders, justify this argument?
Climate change threatens their livelihood. It can destroy their entire nation, culture, and home. Climate change impacts the basic human right to a healthy or adequate environment. These people's homes are going to be destroyed with nowhere to go. During the negotiation India hides behind larger nations and goes along with what they say. India does not want to make changes unless other large countries promise and agree to do the same. India's viewpoint is why should they begin the movement?(The relevant idea beh
There are numerous climate change mitigation strategies beyond those that incorporate geoengineering approaches or require alternative energy sources. Identify four such strategies and provide examples of how each have already been implemented at small scales.
DECS 1. Efficacy. Ex = environmentally friendly cars (CAFE standards) 2. Design. Ex = sustainable buildings (LEED standard = green buildings) 3. Conservation. Ex = Sustainable agriculture 4. Societal change. Ex= Localism (buying local products)
) Define ecosystem services and provide at least two examples evident here in Ohio.
Ecosystem services are services humans need to survive that are provided by other species and species interactions.These benefits can include cultural services, regulating services, medicinal services, monetary services, etc. One example is food from crops (corn). The second example is energy. Ohio is one of the highest coal burning states, not to mention all of the alternative energy like wind power.
Cereals such as wheat, maize and rice represent the most important food sources for most of the world's people. How is climate change expected to impact the cereal yield and how do these impacts vary from one part of the world to another?
For cereal crops in mid latitudes, potential yields are projected to increase for small increases in temperatures (2-3 celsius) but decrease for larger temp rises. In most tropical and subtropical regions, potential yields are projected to decrease for most increases in temperature. The surplus of food in developed countries is likely to increase, while developing countries will face increasing deprivation as their food availability declines.
Explain why the extreme rapidity with which the earth's climate is changing is especially problematic for forest ecosystems.
Forests cannot move fast- adaptations have to be at same rate as the climate change · A substantial proportion of existing trees will be subject to unsuitable climate conditions. This will be particularly the case in the boreal forests of the northern Hem, where as trees become less healthy, they will be more prone to pests, dieback and forest fires, acid rain and pollution.
What exactly is geoengineering and how does it differ from climate change mitigation?
Geo-eng: The deliberate, large-scale technological intervention in the Earth's climate system, in order to moderate global climate change (directly intervene in the climate system to reduce the climate effects of increased CO2). "Fix the problem" Mitigation refers to any strategy or action taken to permanently remove the GHGs released into the atmosphere, or to reduce their amount and their long-term risks. "Avoid the problem"
45) Briefly explain why climate change is widely considered to be a critical social justice issue.
If social justice is about redistributing both advantages and disadvantages in order to achieve equality, climate change falls into this category. Climate change will dispropionately affect those who are already disadvantaged, pushing the poor further and further into absolute/extreme poverty.
36) There are multiple compelling arguments both for and against the use of geoengineering to address the impacts of climate change. Summarize two philosophical (as opposed to technical) arguments in favor of geoengineering and two philosophical arguments against it.
In favor: 1. Moral obligation to help species who are less intelligent 2. Secure safety of the future for our kids and their kids 3.We may have reached a point where these strategies are already needed to avoid catastrophic problems. 4. These isn't any reason we have to completely commit to only these methods or to not using them at all. Against: 1. Only solves symptoms, it is not a cure. 2. Too many solutions and no agreements 3.These tactics can draw concern and efforts away from actual causation of carbon increase.e Could cause international disagreement. For example, if China shoots aresols into the sky, South Korea might feel adverse effects. Should countries be held accountable?
carbon capture and storage (sometimes called "clean coal") is often touted as one of the most feasible geoengineering strategies. Explain how this process works and describe two of the primary limitations to its immediate deployment as a solution to climate change.
In this process, CO2 is intervened from power plants before reaching the atmosphere. The CO2 is compressed and transported to a location where it is pumped deep into the ocean or into geological formations. The first limitation is it will take too many facilities (thousands). The second limitation is there is a risk for leaks back into the atmosphere or aquifers.
The figure below is one of the most important in climate change science. What is it commonly called, what is being graphed, what two patterns are apparent, and what causes these two patterns to exist?
It is the Keeling curve, the levels of CO2 in parts per million by volume (ppmv), the patterns are explained in the question above, the multi-decadal uprise is explained by the increasing CO2 that we are releasing. The yearly cyclical pattern is explained by the annual plant respiration patterns. In the winter and up to spring, CO2 rises because it is not being uptaken by the plants (since they aren't growing), while starting in the spring and into the summer it goes down again (since the plants are growing and intaking CO2, causing it to drop
How have per capita carbon emissions among the world's major economic powers (China, Germany, India, United Kingdom, United States, USSR/Russia) changed between the mid-20th century and today?
Jeff said, "For question 14, study the applet linked in the last slide of lecture 18." I ran the simulator and saw that for the world's major economic powers the per capita carbon emissions have exponentially increased. Someone can double check my answer! Do you think we need to know specific GDP values? I don't think so...he's never really made us in the past. I'm not sure about this but I believe that China overtook the US as the highest emitter in the 70's, but that the US is still the highest PER CAPITA emitter.
The IPCC's latest series of emissions scenarios for future climate change are based on underlying assumptions about several important socioeconomic characteristics. List at least four of these characteristics and explain how each influences the anticipated amount of radiative forcing that these scenarios simulate. 1. Population 2. GDP 3. Oil Consumption 4. Primary energy consumption
Jeff said, "For question 15, think about what slides 12 through 17 (especially 15-17) from the same lecture are saying."
According to the Climate Gap report, communities of color and the poor in hve higher levels of exposure to climate-change related risks than do other Californians. What factors do they argue cause this to be the case?
Lack of mobility and access to resources; those living in absolute (or even relative) poverty may not be able to change their lifestyles in order to adjust to climate change ("adjusting" including having the ability to move, purchase air conditioning, afford food at a higher cost, etc).
What is the Keeling Curve? What two patterns (interannual and multi-decadal) are evident in this curve, and what causes these two patterns to exist?
Measured at Mauna Loa, this curve shows worldwide increasing CO2 concentration. The annual curve is like a sine curve (it peaks CO2 levels in April and shows the lowest levels in October) and the multi-decadal pattern is increasing exponentially. The multi-decadal uprise is explained by the increasing CO2 that we are releasing. But the yearly cyclical pattern is explained by the annual plant respiration patterns.
in the following graph, the upper lines desrcibe the amount of co2 in ocean surface water since 1990, while the lower lines describe changing ph values of ocean surface over same period of time. explain what process this graph is illustrating and the reason why these two phenomena trend in opposite directions.
Partial pressure of dissolved CO2 at the ocean surface (blue curves) and in situ pH (green curves), a measure of the acidity of ocean water. This graph is illustrating the process of ocean acidification. The pH of the ocean surface has decreased by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era (high confidence), corresponding to a 26% increase in H ion concentration. They're occurring in opposite directions because as CO2 increases in the atmosphere, the pH of the ocean becomes more acidic and thus decreases.
Climate change is expected to differentially impact water resources around the world. Which regions are expected to experience the most severe water stress over the next century?
Parts of Africa, the Mediterranean region, the Near East, South Asia, northern China, Australia, USA, Mexico, NE Brazil, and western coast of South America, Sahel · Semi arid/arid regions and low-income countries particularly prone · Some semi‐arid regions of the globe, e.g., Australia, western USA and southern Canada, and the Sahel, have suffered from more intense and multiannual droughts, highlighting the vulnerability of these regions to the increased drought
What are some of the political strategies that President Nasheed and his negotiators employ to try and convince developed nations both before and during the Copenhagen meeting to reach an international climate mitigation and adaptation agreement that they believe will be sufficient to risk to The Maldives?
Poignant one-liners seem to be Nasheed's specialty; he's well aware that the Maldives' small population and relatively non-existent political influence are huge obstacles in the face of the developed-vs-developing world debate. At one point, while considering the Arab-Israeli conflict, he remarks, "What is the point of having a conflict if we are all going to die anyway?" Comments like these capitalize on hyperbole, but few of us can argue with the central message of the question: climate change is a global issue, one that will compound all other political, social and economic conflicts.Before the debate he also states how important he thinks using the media is in order to garner the attention of those in power positions Public outcry is critical. Use of clever ad campaigns and slogans. He held the worlds first underwater cabinet meeting.
There are four primary factors that together influence the amount of CO2 humans emit to the atmosphere. Identify these four factors and describe their respective contributions to CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2010.
Population- Increased CO2 Income per capita- Increased CO2 the most Carbon intensity- Increased CO2 slightly Energy intensity- Lowered CO2
) What are some of the pros and cons of hydropower as an alternative energy? List at least two of each.
Pros: Control flooding, supply power Cons: Alters ecosystem, can displace people
10) In class, we read portions ahan et al. (2010) that focused on a concept called the cultural cognition of scientific consensus. What do the authors mean by this and how do they suggest it relates to the likelihood we will accept the scientific consensus on climate change?
Refers to the tendency of individuals to form risk perceptions that agree with their values - individualistic societies are more likely to be skeptical about environmental risks - it's the public disagreement about the significance of empirical evidence - basis: why doesn't the public believe what scientists believe to be proven true? - the public isn't necessarily unexposed to what scientists have to say, they just don't agree with them(they don't think the science is false, but disagree with what the scientists "mean") - study with correlational and experimental elements to test psychological mechanism that dispose people to selectively credit or dismiss evidence of risk in patterns that fit values they share with others
24) Describe how species' ranges will shift in response to atmospheric warming in the coming centuries
Species move north or south depending on hemisphere, or move up altitudinal to get to environment it is adapted to Birds migrations are changing Aquatic species moving- as phytoplankton move, fish have to follow Invasive pests flourish in warmer climates- larva survives winters
Desrcibe how recent temperature trends in the stratosphere differ from those in the troposphere, and explain why this is strong evidence that an enhanced greenhouse effect is responsible for majority of climate change.
Stratosphere has cooling temperatures that compensate for warming of troposphere to keep earths energy balanced. Troposphere is warming due to increased CO2, more water vapor. less heat escapes into stratosphere, getting trapped.
The IPCC has recently updated its emissions scenarios from a "four storyline" approach to a "representative concentration pathways (RCPs)" approach. How are these two approaches fundamentally different in the way they address the factors that might drive future climate change?
The "four storyline" approach was an arrow diagram that depicted 4 areas. A1: Global & market-oriented! Very economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century, rapid introduction of more technologies. A2: Regional & market-oriented! Very heterogeneous based on continuously increasing population, regionally oriented economic development B1: Global & environmental! Emphasis on global solutions to economic sustainability, improved equity, rapid change in economic, reductions in material intensity. B2: Regional & environmental! Emphasis on local solutions to environmental sustainability, slow but diverse technological change, oriented to environmental protection & social equity. NOT EFFECTIVE because whole world won't have same vision The "representative concentration pathways (RCPs)" approach is not a specific solution, just gives certain #s that depict healthy emission amount levels. No longer global vision, but we could end up with these sorts of emissions in x amount of years. Ok, here is what Jeff said, "Glad to hear you are working collaboratively & teaching each other. For question 14, study the applet linked in the last slide of lecture 18. For question 15, think about what slides 12 through 17 (especially 15-17) from the same lecture are saying.
In class, we discussed at some length the potential climate change vulnerabilities and possible adaptation strategies of a farming family living in rural Andean Ecuador. List three of the vulnerabilities we identified, a possible adaptation option for this vulnerability, and at least one significant obstacle the family faces in pursuing that adaptation option.
The Pumina family is vulnerable to changes in: Precipitation/water variability (grow crops that are can withstand climate change, problem: $$$) Transportation (migrate somewhere else, problem: $$$ and leaving behind culture) Disease (healthcare, costly $$$)
Cloud whitening, solar shields and stratospheric aerosols have been proposed as potential geoengineering solutions to climate change. What are the primary limitations associated with these proposals?
The technology isn't quite ready yet for using these methods, they are very expensive, and the most important thing is that there are unknown weather (climate) effects that could be worse than we could ever predict.
The costs and benefits to human society of climate change will vary widely by location and scale. There is deep concern that this reality will only widen the gap between the world's wealthy and poor. What are some of the factors that make the poor so much more vulnerable to climate change?
They have little to no capacity to handle the emergent social and economic situations likely to develop because of rising sea levels and unpredictable and severe weather/climate patterns. They have low income, bad houses, etc.
Terrestrial ecosystems are presently one of the world's most important carbon sinks, but some projections suggest that, by the end of the 21st Century, terrestrial ecosystems might actually become a net carbon source. Explain why this might be the case.
Trees die because of changes in environment, they then decompose and release CO2 Forest litter decomposes faster when it is warmer- more carbon being released than is stored
Vulnerability, sensitivity, adaptation and adaptive capacity are all important concepts in analysis of climate change impacts. What do these terms mean, and how do they relate to one another?
Vulnerability - is how much you're going to be impacted by a change The degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of that system. Adaptation - the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities Adaptive capacity - how able are you to adapt? do you have the means to be able to do so? The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences. Sensitivity - The equilibrium temperature change in response to changes of the radiative forcing. How much will changes impact you, will small changes still have a big impact or are you less sensitive to these changes.
The Maldives and India are both developing nations trying to determine how best to negotiate for own their respective benefit in international efforts to address climate change. What are some of the fundamental differences between these two nations' approaches to these negotiations?
ind this is that ALL developing nations are using massive amounts of fossil fuels at the moment. Many of these nations feel that the US and other nations had their chance and that it is unfair to tell the recently developing nations not to use these crucial energy sources) What about the United States? The Maldives takes an aggressive stance on climate change and rallies to get other nations on their side in the fight for climate change mitigation. (An eye for an eye make the whole world go blind....or under water)
describe general spatial trend of global air temp anomalies-difference between that years temp and long term mean-between late 19th and early 21th century. what decade did shift? where anomalies been greatest?
last 3 decades warmer than any decade since 1850. in north hem, 1983-2012 warmest 30 period in 1400 yrs. global mean surface temps are difficult bc natural variability and trends can't be based on short records and don't reflect long term trends
what role of ocean storing heat in past 40 yrs. how uncertain are scientists?
more than 60 percent of net energy increase in the climate system is stored in upper ocean, there is high confidence, and 30 percent is stored in the ocean below 700m.
The climate models that have thus far been developed simulate some climate variables better than others. At this point in time, which variable is generally simulated most accurately?
n like the old IPCC scenario. They cannot take into account human choices, which are a lot more difficult to predict. Furthermore, these are often scenarios that would occur IF countries actually made changes instead of just promising that they were going to. Change in global average temperature is one of the variables simulated most accurately. But, the models do not agree on many small scale details.
IPCC uses 2 different systems to access scientific uncertainty about various observations and predictions of climate change, one qualitative one quantitative. differentiate between two. ex unlikely to occur but high confidence, vice versa
qualitative level of confidence: low to high quantified likelihood: unlikely to certain confidence in finding: from type, amount, quality, level of agreement, quantified measures of uncertainty: based on statistical analysis of observation or model results, and expert judgement.
