GVPT204
Lee Teng-hui
- first democratically elected leader in Chinese history as the new president of Taiwan in 1988 -1st native Taiwanese ROC president pursued further democratizing reforms lifting of temporary provision in 1991
PRC public opinion
-2007 survey of college students: 76% agree PRC should use military force if Taiwan declares independence -2013 surgery of urban residents: 52% want Taiwan issue solved asap, 82% prefer that it be resolved via negotiation, 67% believe that Taiwan public is becoming more pro-unification
Politburo
-25 members -meets 8x a year -major policy decisions discussed in such meetings
Taiwan response
-3 no's(no contact, no negotiation, no compromise) -cut back use of military slogans -stop calling PRC government 'communist bandits' -indirect travel allowed in 1987 -Late 1980s: Taiwan begins to lift restrictions on economic transactions with China
Politburo Standing Committee (PSC)
-7 current seats -responsible for major decisions -top leadership of CCP
Political structure in China
-CCP rules country, PRC government as an agent of the party -Top official in CCP is General Secretary -key decisions made by CCP elders, not individuals holding highest formal positions of authority -by late 1990s, more overlap between formal and actual authority
UN referendum
-Chen pushes new referendum to be held at same time as 2008 presidential election -Askds Taiwan voters to support Taiwans entry into Un under the name Taiwan(criticism from PRC and US)
Democratic Progressive Party
-Formed in 1986 -In early 1990s, embraced Taiwan independence -By late 1990s, downplays need to declare independence -Chen Shui Bian: first DPP president(2000) -current president Tsai Ing-wen also DPP(2016)
Economic trends in cross strait
-Growth in cross strait trade -more Taiwan direct investment in China -increased Taiwan's exports to US & China -PRC tourists visits to Taiwan were declining before the pandemic
Signs of pragmatism form Chen
-Inaugural dress: no declaration of independence, no change in country's name -But, unwlling to endorse one china principle -suggests willingness to discuss a future one china
Taiwan historical background
-Incorporated into Qing empire as prefecture of Fujian province in 1683 -Becomes separate province in 1885 -Ceded to Japan in 1895 -Japanese colony 1895-1945 -Cairo declaration(1943): territories taken from China by Japan should be returned to China -Retrocession; becomes part of ROC in 1945 -1949: Nationalist(KMT) retreat to Taiwan
Chen second term
-Increasingly unpopular-> corruption scandals -Continued to pushed sovereignty issues: regularly refer to Taiwan as sovereign independent country, continued to push rectification of names idea
Contentious politics of cross strait relations
-Ma re-elected in 2012, but popularity drops -protests in 2014 -DPP returns to power in 2016 with Tsai Ing Wen
Ma Ying Jeou's approach to cross strait relations
-Ma's 3 no's: no independence, no unification, no use of force -Return to 92 consensus: weak version of one China principle -ROC is sovereign, independent, democratic state -Reverse some of Chen's effort to desinize Taiwan
Leaders of the CCP
-Mao Zedong(1949-1976) -Deng Xiaopeng(1978-1989) -Jiang Zemin(1989-2002) -Hu Jintao(2002-2012) -Xi Jinping(2012-present)
Popular elections in Taiwan
-National assembly and legislative yuan directors elections beginning early 1990s -1996 presidential elections; Lee wins in landslide
KMT political institutions in Taiwan
-ROC constitution dates to 1947 -legislative yuan(parliament) & national assembly(chooses president) -temporary provisions effective during the period of communist rebellion -suspended constitution in 1948, lifted in 1991 -martial law from 1948-1987
Signs of possible future tensions
-Taiwan effort to re-enter the UN -Lee increasingly critical of one China principle -Lee's trip to Cornell in 1995
Post 1945: the KMT in Taiwan
-Taiwan government dominated by mainlanders -economy falters -February 28th incident
Implications of US evaluations of Tsai
-Tendency in Washington to view increased tension in the Taiwan Strait as primarily caused by tougher PRC approach -US signaled stronger support for Taiwan in recent years: arms sales, naval patrols, visits by officials, rhetoric
PRC response to Chen
-Tough rhetoric -anti secession law(2005): mandates non peaceful means be used in event of major events of Taiwans secession from China
Worsening relations since 2016
-Tsai endorses status quo, signals moderation on sovereignty issues -refuses to accept 'one chine' principle -end of tacit 'diplomatic truce' -PRC military flights around Taiwan/military exercises -Xi Jinping speech Jan 2019 -Pelosi visit August 2022 -Tsai re-elected in landslide 2020
Differing US-China evaluations of Tasi presidency
-US: Tsai is cautious, especially relative to Chen Shui bian -China: Tsai doesn't support one China, personally supports Taiwan independence, is seeing to upgrade relations with US
February 28th Incident (1947)
-anti government uprising that was violently suppressed by KMT government -Between 18-28k deaths
Central Committee
-around 370 members -meets every 5 years to 'choose' top leaders -meets annually to ratify major decisions
Economic reform process
-bring more talent into labor pool -focus more attention on consumer products -agricultural reforms -transition to market economy -allow alternative ownership forms -open doors to international economy
Continued stabilization in cross strait relations in early 1990s
-growing trade and investment flows -National Unification guidelines(Taiwan) -Quasi: official dialogue between PRC & Roc in Singapore 1993
Public opinion trends in Taiwan
-increased Taiwan identity, decreased in Taiwan/Chinese & Chinese personal identity -Majority support to maintain status quo: decrease in unification stance, increase in independence stance -Hong Kong protests impacted public opinion
Military trends in cross strait
-increased military spending for both PRC and Taiwan -PRC military capabilities continue to improve
Democratization(1948-1987)
-increasing recognition by KMT in 1970s that liberalization would eventually be necessary (legitimacy issues & continued opposition from native Taiwanese -Chiang Kai Shek dies 1975
Chen Shui-bian policies
-initial pragmatism -one country on each side of Taiwan Strait -Wins 2004 election by thing margin -calls for new ROC constitution -rectification of names
CCP economic strategy under Mao
-normalization of industry -central planning -promotion of heavy industry over light -land reform -shift to more radical strategy in late 1950s
Moderation in PRC policy toward Taiwan in late 70s
-peaceful unification as opposed to liberation -'one country two systems'(implemented in Hong Kong 1984)
Post Mao economy(late 1970s)
-shift to market based economy -involved in international economy RESULTS -increased linkages to global economy -rapid economic growth -rise in living standard(China is still developing tho)
Cross strait relations in late 1990s
-some stabilization following 1995-1996 crisis -1999: Lee calls relations "state to state" -PRC response: tough rhetoric, cancel ARATS-SEF dialogue, 2000 white paper(indefinite delay as legitimate cause of war)
Chiang Ching-kuo
-son of Chiang Kai Shek; succeeds father as president of ROC & chair of KMT -appoints Lee Teng Hui as VP(1984) -Tolerates formation of opposition party(1986) -Ends martial law(1987) -Dies 1988
Economic challenges
-still a long way to go to catch up -demographic challenges(population pyramid) -widening economic inequality, greater Gini coefficient now compared to 90s & 2000s, per capita income varies greatly depending on population area -growing debt since the 80s -more sluggish growth since 2012(no boom without bust) -challenges with the pandemic
Deng Xiaoping
Communist Party leader who seen as responsible for Chinese economic reforms after the death of Mao Zedong in 1976.
Deng Xiaoping Theory
Mix of authoritarian political control and economic privatization; socialist planning and capitalist free market -believed Mao development strategy of flawed -need to de-emphasize ideology -CCP must stay in control
Top officials wear multiple hats
Xi Jinping: General secretary, chairman of central military commission, state president Li Keqiang: member of standing committee of the politburo, premier Top leadership selected by prior leadership
