ILS 153 FINAL BAYBEEE

22. Explain the three Milancovic cycles. Which one matters the most to explain the most recent ice ages? How do you know?

Eccentricity - variation of Earth's orbit from a circle to an ellipsis: 100,000 yr (eccentricity) cycles Axial tilt - variation of rotation axis of Earth from 22.1° to 24.5° (presently at 23.4°): 41,000 yr (axial tilt or obliquity) cycle Precession of the equinoxes - the change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the Sun at the time of being closest and farthest from the sun in its orbit: 23,000 yr (precession) cycle The Eccentricity tilt dis the most relevant to explain the most recent ice ages because the ice core data uncovered by Emiliani revealed that ice ages occur in 100,000 year cycles, corresponding with the 100,000 year eccentricity cycle

10. What contributions did Cesare Emiliani make to the scientific field? Did Emiliani use an empirical or theoretical approach? How did he interpret his results? why was he wrong?

Emiliani discovered a way to use trapped air bubbles and fossils in ice cores to evaluate past atmospheric conditions and temperatures through oxygen isotopes. Empirical, based off of data. Through this, he established that the ice ages are a cyclic phenomenon, which gave strong support to the hypothesis of Milankovitch. Emiliani was wrong because he thought that the Oxygen isotope record provided temperatures, it does not - it provides an estimate of the evaporation from the ocean because the heavier Oxygen-18 sticks around in the ocean when there are large ice sheets.

9. Uncertainty in inherent in any scientific data or evidence. Give an example (readings, class, or campus talks) of the following types of scientific uncertainty that surrounds evidence from human induced climate change. a. Value uncertainty b. Structural uncertainty c. Unpredictability

a. Value uncertainty: Data regarding the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere displays value uncertainty because there is always the possibility that the tools or methods used to measure it are inaccurate to some degree, especially before 1960 when scientists started taking direct measurements of CO2. b. Structural uncertainty: The GCMs display structural uncertainty because regardless of how sophisticated they are, they will still never be able to perfectly replicate the complex natural system that is the Earth's climate thus the models will always be incomplete. c. Unpredictability: How humans will continue to emit CO2 is unpredictable because it is reliant on the decisions and behavior of humans

14. A quote attributeted to Alexander von Humbolt said there are three phases of a scientific theory. First it is ignored. Second, it is discounted, Third the wrong person is credited. Please apply this to the discovery of the ice ages, as told by both Weart and in lecture.

19th-century scientists like Jean de Charpentier and Schimper argued that Earth was once covered by glaciers, but they were ignored. Agassiz later published a book, "The Study of Glaciers" but his findings were disputed by the scientific community. Croll was credited for the discovery of the ice ages with his publication "Climate and Time, in Their Geological Relations" in 1875.

24. Explain Al Gore's role in the climate change debate. Why did he get interested in it initially? Could he have won the peace prize without the IPCC report? Could the IPCC have won the peace prize without Al Gore?

Al Gore helped raise awareness of anthropocentric climate change amongst the populous and politicians through his activism on the subject and work with the IPCC, the most notable of which being his "inconvenient truth" documentary. Gore had a genuine interest in the topic but also saw it as a political opening; he could be a leader on climate issues while the Republicans in power ignored this issue. Neither could have won the peace prize without the support of the other. Gore needed the credibility and legitimacy on climate issues that the IPCC brought, and the IPCC needed a public face and communicator for their science who had prominence and influence, which Gore was. Each played an important role.

13. How does ocean acidification work? Why - in general chemistry terms - does the ocean absorb carbon? What compound does that carbon form and why is that problematic? What does any of this have to do with coral or foraminifera?

Ocean acidification works through carbon dioxide from human activity released into the atmosphere dissolving into oceans, resulting in a drop in the ocean's pH levels and a rise in acidification. Oceans absorb carbon dioxide because H2O molecules act as a solvent with CO2 molecules as a solute. To achieve chemical equilibrium, some of it reacts with the water to form carbonic acid. Some of the resulting carbonic acid molecules dissociate into a bicarbonate ion and a hydrogen ion, thus increasing ocean acidity. The additional carbonic acid that forms in the oceans ultimately results in the conversion of carbonate ions into bicarbonate ions. This net decrease in the amount of carbonate ions available may make it more difficult for marine calcifying organisms, such as coral and some plankton, to form biogenic calcium carbonate.

12. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. a. what does it mean that it is a greenhouse gas? b. who first directly and accurately measure CO2 in the atmosphere at Moana Loa? c. why is there variability in CO2 concentrations during the year? d. exactly how does CO2 absorb heat? e. In what unit is CO2 measured in the atmosphere? f. is CO2 the most important greenhouse gas: why or why not?

a. A greenhouse gas is a gas in which the electromagnetic waves of the gas resonates with the sun's infrared light, absorbing infrared rays and their heat and energy and trapping it in the atmosphere, raising temperatures. b. Charles Keeling c. Spring. In the spring, leaves return to the trees and photosynthesis increases dramatically, drawing down the CO2 in the atmosphere. d. CO2 has a wavelength on the same resonant frequency of infrared rays from the sun, allowing it to absorb the rays along with their heat and energy and trap it in the atmosphere, raising temperatures. f. CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas because it is the one that has risen the most dramatically over the past century and the one that humans are the most responsible for and have the greatest ability to control the emissions of it.

6. Give a congress person your one minute elevator speech about climate change a. What is the most important thing that one person should know in one written page. b. write about the science of human-induced climate change and back up your claims with scientific evidence

a. Climate change is very real, the arguments against it exploit the uncertain nature of science and human biases in order to cast doubt on the subject. The impacts will be very real and very costly, and the earlier that we begin to work to mitigate its effects the less we will have to suffer. b. Because the electromagnetic waves of greenhouse gases resonate with the sun's infrared light, greenhouse gases absorb infrared rays and their heat and energy and trip it in the atmosphere, raising temperatures. CO2 is one of these greenhouse gases. Historical records compiled from the analyzation of atmosphere trapped in ice cores, started by Emiliani, along with contemporary data of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere from Keeling reveal that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has been dramatically rising as humans emit large quantities of them due to burning fossil fuels. During this time, we have seen a corresponding rise in global average temperatures as compiled by measuring stations across the globe. The primer climate scientists working for the IPCC have concluded that it is extremely likely that anthropogenic climate change is the primary cause of this warming.

5. Define empirical and theoretical approaches to scientific problems. b. Define reductionistic and holistic approaches to scientific problems. c. Explicitly in terms of empirical vs. theoretical and holistic v. reductionistic, describe the development of the theory of anthropogenic climate change. d. Give an example of holistic science and explain how it is used with either theoretical or an empirical approach. e. Give an example of reductionistic science and explain how it is used with either theoretical or an empirical approach.

a. Empirical: Verifiable or provable by means of observation or experiment. Theoretical: the development of new theories and hypotheses to explain natural phenomenon. b. Holistic: An approach to research that emphasizes the study of complex systems. Systems are approached as coherent wholes whose component parts are best understood in context and in relation to one another and to the whole. Reductionist: Explanation of entire systems in terms of their individual, constituent parts and their interactions. c. First, scientists like Svante Arrhenius and T.C. Chamberlin published theoretical approaches predicting that man-made CO2 will warm the climate, including in Chamberlin's case feedbacks in the system. Then, in 1938, Callender publishes a hypothesis suggesting anthropogenic global warming is underway based off of empirical observations. Then empiricists find more ways to collect climate and temperature data; Emiliani discovers a way to use trapped air bubbles in ice cores to evaluate past atmospheric conditions and in 1960 Keeling starts a direct measurement of CO2 in the atmosphere so we have real measurements of CO2 instead of past estimates. Then, increased concern leads to the formation of the IPCC and the creation of theoretical models to predict future changes. d. An example of holistic science is the creation of the Global Climate Models by the IPCC. They attempt to analyze an entire complex natural system and how its facets interact in order to understand the system and make predictions. Theoretical, making predictions based on a model. e. An example of reductionistic science is Keeling's work to record CO2 levels in the atmosphere because there are a lot of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere that affect it and each other but Keeling attempted to separate and analyze a single greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.

25. Why does the earth have ice ages? How do we know it has ice ages? Who figured it out an what evidence did they use?

Because multiple factors may affect the Earth's climate and cool global temperatures, including the Milankovitch cycles, concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane, wind and ocean currents, variations in solar output, and more. Evidence includes: Fossil record: there are similar fossil records across glacial areas, suggesting that glaciers once covered a cross-continental area Ice cores: atmosphere and fossils trapped within ice cores can be used to determine the temperature of Earth in the distant past, showing that the Earth has had periods of colder global temperatures. Geological: Certain patterns of nonconformities, glacial deposits, and glacial erratics suggest large-scale glacial movements Jean de Charpentier first proposed that at one point the swiss alps were covered with ice. Schimper proposed that ice lay over not just the Swiss Alps, but over much of Europe, Asia, and North America. Called this Eiszeit (or Ice Age). Agassiz later published a book, "The Study of Glaciers" but his findings were disputed by the scientific community. Croll was credited for the discovery of the ice ages with his publication "Climate and Time, in Their Geological Relations" in 1875. Proposed that slight variations in the Earth's orbits might explain the ice ages. Emiliani proved it with his ice core data.

Provide a rough timeline of climate change including the following people: Arrhenius, Callandar, Kealing, Revelle, Balin. Outline the contributions of each of these individuals Add two other people of your choice who you think are important.

Black: 1754, Joesph Black makes the discovery of CO2. Arrhenius: 1896, Svante Arrhenius (a chemist) realizes that humans are producing CO2 at a geological rate. He published first prediction of how human production of CO2 would affect the global climate. He was, within error, of the value in the 2007 IPCC report. First person to suggest that human-produced CO2 could warm the climate. T.C. Chamberlin: In 1897, T.C. Chamberlin (geologist) produced a model for global carbon exchange including feedbacks. He is beginning to think in a different way (feedbacks, not just control of one variable). First model. Callendar: Callendar, an engineer who did meteorology as a hobby, documents rise in temperature and a 10% rise in CO2. Callendar argues that CO2 greenhouse global warming is underway, reviving interest in the question. Callender proposes that anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming is underway. Emiliani: 1955, used new techonologies to analize atmosphere and fossils trapped in ice cores. Looking at fossil shells in a core, he looked back over 1,000,000 years of geologic time and realized that there are lots of ice ages, that they happened every 100,000 years. Credited Malenkovich hypothesis of ice age and contributed crucial data on the Earth's climate in the past Kealing: Charles Keeling, began tracking CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere at the South Pole and the summit of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii in 1957. His observations led to the publication of the Keeling curve, a graph depicting the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere that rapidly occelates but is trending upwards with time. Revelle: In 1957, Revelle co-authored a paper with Hans Suess that suggested that the Earth's oceans would absorb excess carbon dioxide generated by humanity at a much slower rate than previously predicted by geoscientists, thereby suggesting that human gas emissions might create a "greenhouse effect" that would cause global warming over time. The Suess-Revelle paper was the only one to stress the growing quantity of CO2 contributed by our burning of fossil fuel, and to call attention to the fact that it might cause global warming over time. Bolin: Essential in the formation and early leadership of IPCC. Research which Bolin was involved with contributed to the setting up of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He was also the first chairman of the IPCC, under his leadership, the IPCC released its first and second reports and won the Nobel prize with Al Gore.

19. In the short Naomi Oreskes video, she talks about trusting the experts. Who does she mean? If science is uncertainty, why should you trust experts?

By "the experts" Naomi Oreskes is referring to the scientific community of experts at large. Oreskes argues that we should trust scientists regardless of uncertainty because their work represents the collective effort of a community trained to be skeptical and to evaluate the claims of other scientists and that this method and the science that it produces has been improving for thousands of years. She justifies that choice by arguing that this is the best method that the human race has developed for science and research over thousands of years and that a community of experts have expressed faith in scientific conclusions.

30. Explain the data that David Keeling collected. Why was the data collected in the two locations where it is collected? Why is there yearly variability in the data? How is it interpreted? What is its importance?

Charles Keeling, began tracking CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere at the South Pole and the summit of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii in 1960. His observations led to the publication of the Keeling curve, a graph depicting the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere that rapidly occelates but is trending upwards with time. Keeling collected his data at Mauna Loa and the South Pole because those locations were removed from any industrial output that would interfere with Keeling's attempt at measuring the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Spring. In the spring, leaves return to the trees and photosynthesis increases dramatically, drawing down the CO2 in the atmosphere. It is interpreted as humans are contributing more and more CO2 into the atmosphere every year through our emissions. Its importance is that it marks the beginning of the actual recording of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere instead of retroactive estimates based on different measurement techniques. The data we have from Keeling is less uncertain than the other data we have. It also shows the dramatic rise in co2 concentration in the late 21st century.

28. Describe the point of view of climate skeptics, using evidence from what you know about Naomi Oreskes' work and James Hansen's relationship with the US government.

Climate change skeptics may deny climate change because they are under optimism bias, confirmation bias, don't include it in their pool of worry, misconceptualize the nature of uncertainty surrounding the science, or have not had the science properly explained to them in a way that adresses their doubts

17. What was the role of a few cold war physicists with respect to climate change research? Were they making a scientific argument? Is this an example of scientific skepticism? Where these scientists experts in the field of climate change research?

Fred Seitz and Fred Singer purposely attempted to sow doubt amongst the public through using their positions as recognized scientists to contest the science with their position of authority, funding counter-research and think-tanks, and exploiting the inherent uncertainty within science. The two funded the conservative think-tank the Marshall institute whose explicit goal was never to do research but rather raise debate and argumentation through their publications. They published a critique of the IPCC's findings in the WSJ opinion section, casting doubt on the reporting. Seitz worked in the tobacco industry and did similar work trying to disprove the connections between smoking and cancer. They also personally attacked people like Ben Santer. They did not make a scientific argument, rather they relied on exploiting the nature of science to sow public doubt. No, because they had an explicit agenda to try and cast doubt on the topic and their attacks targeted individuals and organizations rather than the science itself. No, neither had experiance in climate science.

15. Discuss science's role in society relative to global warming. What role does science play in society's knowledge and understanding of global warming? What is the role of the media?

In the era of socially robust knowledge, science is responsible for providing credible and understandable evidence for the theory of anthropomorphic climate change and arguing for its validity. The research that it provides society must not only be reliable and infallible but science now bears the responsibility of arguing for its findings whereas in the past most scientific findings were blindly accepted by the public. The media has the role of the mediator between science and the public. They are responsible for communicating scientific findings to the people, although they often do so in a way that distorts or misrepresents the findings of scientists or that give disproportionate coverage to dissenters out of a pursuit of objectivity

26. Describe the types of bias that complicate the relationship between scientists and the public. How does this cause public mistrust in scientific facts and scientists to not trust the public to make evidence based decisions?

Optimism bias is a psychological phenomenon where an individual may believe that they are at lesser risk of being harmed by an uncertain event compared to others. This bias impacts the understanding of climate change by preventing certain people from accepting its risks. Confirmation bias refers to the unconscious practice of seeking out and accepting evidence that confirms our preexisting beliefs. This bias inhibits the understanding of climate change because it causes deniers to unjustifiably cling to dissenting evidence Uncertainty impacts public perception of climate change because there is a disconnect between the scientific community and the public on the uncertainty of climate change. While science is inherently uncertain, uncertainty in science can translate to the public as the science being questionable or contested, enabling denial. The "pool of worry" plays out in the climate change debates through the climate change debate though skeptics not including climate change in their "pool of worry"

18. In the short Naomi Oreskes video, she talks about uncertainty in science. Why does she say that we should trust scientists? Why is that problematic? How does she justify that choice? Would Pollack agree with Oreskes?

Oreskes argues that we should trust scientists regardless of uncertainty because their work represents the collective effort of a community trained to be skeptical and to evaluate the claims of other scientists and that this method and the science that it produces has been improving for thousands of years. That is problematic because it means that individuals need to take a leap of faith to reach conclusions that even the experts admit are only probable. She justifies that choice by arguing that this is the best method that the human race has developed for science and research over thousands of years and that a community of experts have expressed faith in scientific conclusions. Pollack would agree with Oreskes because Pollack argues that despite the uncertainty inherent in science, people should trust it because every possible effort that the scientific community can do to eliminate uncertainty is being done; science is the least uncertain as we can make it right now.

21. What is Radiative forcing? What units? Why use this term? Explain the radioactive forcing of carbon dioxide and aerosols in the atmosphere.

Radiative forcing is a measure of the difference between sunlight absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back to space, allowing climate scientists to aggregate numerous variables that contribute to global warming and express their impact in a single value. Radiative forcing is expressed in units of watts per square meter. This term allows scientists to express the force of radiative forcing across a portion of the Earth's surface area. Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere increases radiative forcing by trapping sunlight in the atmosphere through the greenhouse effect. Aerosols in the atmosphere decrease radiative forcing by scattering sunlight back into space, preventing it from reaching the Earth.

4. Draw a scale model of the Earth's atmosphere. You must show your work to receive credit. Here are the relative thicknesses of the different layers: 10 km, 40 km, 50 km, 300 km, 400 km. a. What is the role of CFCs in the stratosphere? How - exactly - do the CFCs have that effect? b. What is the role of CFCs in the troposphere? How - exactly - do the CFCs have that effect?

Scale=Distance on map/Distance in reality Layers: 1) Troposphere. 2) Stratosphere. 3) Mesosphere. 4) Thermosphere. 5) Exosphere. a. CFC's in the stratosphere = Ozone hole. CFCs contain chlorine. When UV radiation hits a CFC molecule it causes one chlorine atom to break away. The chlorine atom then hits an ozone molecule consisting of three oxygen atoms and takes one of the oxygen molecules, destroying the ozone molecule and turning it into oxygen. When an oxygen molecule hits the molecule of chlorine monoxide, the two oxygen atoms join and form an oxygen molecule. When this happens, the chlorine atom is free and can continue to destroy ozone. b. CFC's in the troposphere = global warming. As CFCs break up the ozone layer, it makes it easier for UV radiation from the sun to get to the Earth, exposing it to more radiative forcing and warming the Earth.

29. Be able to explain precisely (perhaps using a probability density function) what the IPCC results mean such as terms like "likely" and "very likey"

These terms represent the IPCC's certainty in their findings. Each term represents a different statistical threshold, found by conducting t-tests and other methods of statistical analysis. Thresholds include: virtually certain: 99-100 %, Extremely likely: 95-100 %, Very likely: 90-100 %, Likely: 66-100 % probability

33. Describe at least four attributes of the scientific community that allows them to work together to create groups efforts such as the IPCC. Provide examples.

Scientists trust one another: When dealing with an area as interdisciplinary as climate change, scientists must be willing to trust the findings of other scientists, even if they have limited knowledge of the other's field or are not qualified to evaluate the evidence for themselves. An example would be the acceptance within the scientific community of Emiliani's methods of determining the Earth's temperature in the distant past; even though the other scientists may not have been geochemists like Emiliani and unable to evaluate his data, they still accepted his findings. Dissent is tolerated: In order to fairly consider every argument and viewpoint, dissent within the scientific community must be tolerated. This both ensures accuracy and addresses scientific problems in a multifaceted manner. An example from within the large scientific effort to explain the KT extinction was when Walter Alvarez and his team hypothesized that the KT extinction event was caused by a meteor impact instead of a nearby supernova or other cause. This idea ran contrary to the established thinking at the time but turned out to be the best theory we have for the event. Limited consensus must be achievable: Because of the uncertain and contested nature of the sciences, it is rare that a large group of scientists will fully agree with one another. As a result, scientists must be willing to step back from their personal belief and reach a broader group consensus. An example is the IPCC reports on climate change. The individual scientists working on those reports most likely all have different opinions and beliefs on the impact of climate change and how it will affect the earth in the future, but the IPCC takes a conservative consensus that the entire group can rally behind instead. Interdisciplinary cooperation is necessary: A topic like climate change involves many different scientific disciplines, from physicists, to geologists, to chemists, to meteorologists, to atmospheric scientists, and more. They need to be able to work together in an interdisciplinary method in order to correctly analyze the multifaceted system that is the global climate. For example, an understanding of ocean acidification requires knowledge from chemists, atmospheric scientists, biologists, and other disciplines as well.

32. Describe how statistics are used to determine the rate of climate change an the variability between samples taken over time.

Statistics are used to demonstrate differences between sets of data through methods like the t-test and calculations such as the standard deviation. Larger differences between sets suggests a faster rate of change, since the data is demonstrably different faster

27. How does technology (google, facebook, twitter, reddit, ect.) impact the dissemination of scientific skepticism?

Technology eases the dissemination of scientific skepticism because it allows anyone to publish anything they want to and reach an audience with it, regardless of its credibility or if it has been peer-reviewed.

16. The IPCC represents a fundamentally new way of doing science that reflects science's new contract with society. Characterize this relationship. How does it deviate from the more traditional view?

The IPCC represents the new contract of socially robust knowledge. Science is responsible for providing credible and understandable evidence for the theory of anthropomorphic climate change and arguing for its validity. The research that it provides society must not only be reliable and infallible but science now bears the responsibility of arguing for its findings whereas in the past most scientific findings were blindly accepted by the public.

8. What was the series of events that led to the discovery of climate change? a. Name at least five scientists who helped uncover the the effects of the human induced climate change. b. Please explain what contributions made to the field and how the scientific process was used to uncover the effects of climate change?

Tyndall in 1850s discovers what greenhouses gasses are and the physics behind how they warm the earth. Scientists like Svante Arrhenius and T.C. Chamberlin published theoretical approaches predicting that man-made CO2 will warm the climate, including in Chamberlin's case feedbacks in the system. Then, in 1938, Callender publishes a hypothesis suggesting anthropogenic global warming is underway based off of empirical observations. Suess and Revelle then argue that humans are putting CO2 into the atmosphere at an unnatural rate. Then empiricists find more ways to collect climate and temperature data; Emiliani discovers a way to use trapped air bubbles in ice cores to evaluate past atmospheric conditions and in 1960 Keeling starts a direct measurement of CO2 in the atmosphere so we have real measurements of CO2 instead of past estimates. Then, increased concern leads to the formation of the IPCC and the creation of theoretical models to predict future changes.

31. How does uncertainty impact socially robust knowledge v. reliable knowledge? Describe the balancing at between the passive acceptance of science and the public understaning of science.

Uncertainty impacts socially robust knowledge more than reliable knowledge. During the era of reliable knowledge, the public was more ready to accept scientific data and trust scientists without question. The public was unconcerned with scientific uncertainties because they trusted the expert opinion on data. However, during the era of socially robust knowlege, the public is less willing to accept scientific conclusions. Uncertanties may become points of contention and prevent public acceptance of data; uncertainties need to be quanified and explained, and even then people may still not accept the science.

20. Pollack and uncertainty: why is uncertainty important in the pursuit of science? How does it impact scientific integrity?

Uncertainty is important in the pursuit of science because it: 1) allows the improve of science over time as tools and technologies develops and additional observations become possible 2) Fosters creativity within the sciences and efforts to minimize uncertainty often lead to further scientific inquiries that bring further discoveries. 3) It allows dissent and skepticism in the sciences which improves the quality of scientific findings and can expose incorrect conclusions. Uncertainty impacts scientific integrity because with an element of uncertainty scientists have to hold integrity because their findings can always be questioned. No scientist is the ultimate, unquestionable authority on any topic, every scientists can be proven wrong and every scientists has the ability to be skeptical about other scientists. As a result, scientists must hold integrity if the skepticism that is produced by uncertainty is turned against their research.

23. Be able to explain the science behind (observation and interpretation) and implications (interpretations based on observation and extrapolation) of IPCC 2014 graphs

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7. The Naomi Oreskes video discussed the role of a few physicists in the climate change debate. a. who are these people b. what was the basic argument c. What data did Oreskes use to support the argument d. how did the scientific community respond? How did their approach affect human-induced climate change research? Was their approach damaging to all of science? What was the net result of their action?

a. Fred Seitz and Fred Singer b. These physicists purposely attempted to sow doubt amongst the public through using their positions as recognized scientists to contest the science with their position of authority, funding counter-research and think-tanks, and exploiting the inhearant uncertainty within science. c. The two funded the conservative think-tank the Marschall institute whose explicit goal was never to do research but rather raise debate and argumentation through their publications. They published a critique of the IPCCs findings in the WSJ opinion section, casting doubt on the reporting. Seitz worked in the tobacco industry and did similar work trying to disprove the connections between smoking and cancer. They also personally attacked people like Ben Santer. d. The scientific community responded by remaining firm in their findings and continuing to improve upon the science. Their approach affected human-induced climate change research by causing large swaths of the general public to doubt or reject the research and findings, dramatically slowing progress in regards to implementation of necessary policies. Conservative politicians and industry alike used their faulty research in order to promote their interests that ran contrary to the global warming agenda. Their approach was damaging to all of science because it destroyed trust towards all of the scientific community. The net result of their action was a delay in the implementation of anti-global warming policies.

2a. Interpret what GCMs are, and what kind of results they produce. How do scientists test GCMs, and how do they estimate likelihood from GCMs-that is, how do they know that any particular GCM is giving reasonable answers? b. Given the quote "all models are wrong, and some models are useful", explain the value of the data generated by the GCMs.

a. GCMs employ a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean to model the earth's climate. GCMs are used for weather forecasting, understanding the climate and forecasting climate change. Scientists test GCMs by seeing if given the same inputs that affected the Earth's climate in the past, the GCM will produce a result that matches historical climate records. An example of this was in 1991 when a GCM predicted cooling via the Pinnatubo volcanic eruption and was verified in 1995. By 1998 models could recreate ice-age climates. Scientists estimate likelihood from GCMs in terms of probability calculated from statistical analysis, from Virtually certain to Exceptionally unlikely. b. All models, including the GCMs, are oversimplifications of natural phenomenon and inherently faulty. They might also be wrong in their inherent assumptions or in how they run. However, while these models may not be perfect they are still very sophisticated and have been found through trials to accurately predict climate changes. Thus, while the data they produce is uncertain it can still be confidently used to make general predictions.

1. Consider the following graph from the IPCC FAQs a. Briefly describe the data represented on the graph, clearly separating your observations from any interpretations. b. How was the data collected? Is it empirical or theoretical, and how do you know? c. What is the relevance of the 5-95% error bars (in other words, what does this mean mathematically)? d. First, what is the meaning of the different lines (originally in color, now in shades of grey)? Second, interpret the significance of the difference lines that are depicted on the graph. Pick the line starting in 1860 and the one starting in 1980 and compare them. Do this in two steps to separate your observations from your interpretations.

a. Observations: This graph represents the global mean temperature in degrees C from 1850-2007. The x axis represents time in 20 year intervals, and the y axis represents the estimated actual global mean temperature and the difference of that mean temperature from 1960-1990, both in Celsius. The individual data points are annual mean temperatures, connected with a line depicting change in temperature over time. Different colored lines depict the rate of temperature change over different sets of years. Interpretations: On balance, the global mean temperature has risen since 1850. New temperature maximums were continually set after 2000. Also, the rate of warming is also increasing over time. b. This data was collected by taking the average temperature of different temperatures taken at recording stations around the world. It is empirical data because it is based off of data compiled from observations and it is not based off of a model or theory. c. The 5-95% error bars are graphical representations of the variability of the data and indicate the error or uncertainty in the data. Mathematically, it measures the capability for fluctuation in the data, as global temperatures commonly exceed or fall short of the mean. d. The different colored lines depict the rate of temperature change over different sets of years. Observational: The line beginning in 1860 gradually inclines. The line beginning in 1980 rapidly inclines. Interpretation: Both lines suggest an increase in global temperature over time. The line beginning in 1980 suggests a much more rapid rate of increase in temperature over time than the line staring in 1860.

11. Explain the below graph. a. Explain this graph to someone who doesn't know how to read a graph b. Interpret the graph c. Discuss the graph in the context of the relevant scientific work d. Extrapolate the information for its relevance to past climate change e. Extrapolate the information for its relevance to ongoing climate change.

a. Of the two graphs, one graph depicts the temperature change over the past 400,000 years. The temperature change from the present is measured on the y-axis in degrees Celsius while the x-axis depicts the years before 1950. The other depicts the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The y-axis measures CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in ppmv while the x-axis measures the years before 1950. The lines map out different data points on the graph. b. These graphs suggest that there is a positive correlation between CO2 concentration and temperature change, as CO2 concentration rises the temperature increases, and vice versa. c. These graphs provide additional evidence to the argument that increasing co2 in the atmosphere will raise global temperatures, supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change as the theory argues that humans have the potential to influence the climate by adding greenhouse gasses to the environment. d. These graphs suggest that the earth's climate and temperature changed in cycles. These graphs show that the temperature reaches a relative maximum approximately every 100,000 years, corresponding with the Earth's 100,000-year cycle of eccentricity, discovered by Milankovic: the variation of Earth's orbit from more circular to more elliptical. e. These graphs suggest that the more CO2 there is in the atmosphere, the higher global temperatures will rise. This suggests that humans have the capability to affect global climates through how much greenhouse gas they contribute to the atmosphere, supporting the theory of anthroprogenic climate change.