INR 3303 Final Study Set

The Arab Spring: Sequence of countries involved

(I googled this to make it easier) : 1. Began With Tunisia. 2. Egypt. 3.Libya 4.Yemen 5.Bahrain 6.Syria 7.Morocco 8. Jordan

The Schengen Agreement

Abolishment of border lines/limit Allows traveling across the continent without border checks. Traveling anywhere freely but huge influxes of refugees from the middle east has challenged the agreement.

Media's public opinion influence: agenda setting, priming, framing

Agenda setting: occurs when media reports direct people to think about certain issues, and not others. Priming:refers to the process by which media direct people to judge their political leaders according to particular issues. Framing:refers to the specific properties of news text (i.e. the selection of language, facts, and images) that encourage readers/viewers to think about issues in a particular way.

Defensive cognitions and cognitive consistency

Cognitive consistency: a theory produced by cognitive psychologists, which argues that people strongly prefer consistency, are made uncomfortable by dissonant information, and consequently discount inconsistent information to preserve their beliefs. Defensive cognitions: forms of behaviour or phraseology activated to 'defend' oneself from an unpleasant or dissonant thought.

The Fundamental Attribution Error

The tendency of people to over-emphasize dispositional explanations for behaviors observed in others while under-emphasizing situational explanations (social and environmental forces). "they, North Korea, had too but we, USA, did it because we wanted too"

Security dilemma in Realism

a realist theory about how group efforts to provide security under anarchy can spark spirals of conflict.

Main belligerents in the Syrian civil war

(got this from google) The major parties supporting the Assad government are Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. The main Syrian opposition body - the Syrian coalition - receives political, logistic and military support from the United States, Britain and France. Some Syrian rebel groups were supported by the Netherlands.

Agency vs. structure debate in IR and FPA

(information derived from what the Professor stated) For IR: Agency Debate: Countries enjoy a certain level of agency in deciding in foreign policy decisions. - A more constructivist + liberal view. Structure Debate : Because of the structural pressures and constrains foreign policy decisions, at least important ones, are governed/shaped/determined under those structural pressures. -Pretty much countries don't have much agency under these micro existential levels/decision making.

The Hedgehog and the Fox in FPA

*'The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.' *Academic theorists tend to be hedgehogs, not foxes. *foxes will be better at practical tasks such as FPA. *Foxes systematically outperform hedgehogs *The implication is that analysts should not be dogmatic realists—or anti-realists. They should know theories without becoming overly committed to any one. And nothing in the realist approach makes one inevitably a hedgehog. *On the contrary, many realist scholars and analysts are foxes. Fox-like FPA involving a constant dialogue between case expertise and general theory is possible.

Arguments in favor of "containing" China

*A realist argument that we need to contain china; the sooner we act the better *China is growing economically and they will eventually transfer that power into military power *The more we wait, the stronger and more dangerous they become. (kept from google doc)

"Civilian power" in analyzing EU

*As early as the 1970s, François Duchêne (1973) argued that the then EC represented a new form of international actor, which he designated a 'civilian power'. Drawing on liberal notions of economic interdependence and the domestication of international politics through the observance of common rules, he argued that the emerging European civilian power could tame anarchy and facilitate the peaceful resolution of disputes in ways that traditional military powers could not. *The concept of civilian power has provided the starting-point for other analysts who have argued that the EU is a distinctive international actor because it 'exercises influence and shapes its environment through what it is, rather than through what it does' (Maull 2005: 778). In contrast with previous hegemons and empires, who have sought to promote their own values and project a favourable image of themselves on the basis of their hard power, the EU, it is argued, has been able to reshape post-Cold War European order through the power of attraction and magnetism as a civilian power.

Non-intervention in Rwanda (2004)

*Beginning on 6 April 1994 in only 100 days roughly 800,000 people lost their lives in a genocide. *the Tutsi owned cattle and were in the minority, but were the ruling class, and the Hutu were peasants and were the vast majority, but on the lower economic and political rung *When Belgium took over the colonial mandate from Germany after the First World War, they saw Hutu and Tutsi not as interconnected economic groups, in which it was possible to move from one category to another, but rather as mutually exclusive racial groups in which individuals were destined by birth to be a member of one group or the other. *When Rwanda gained independence in 1961 there was a reversal of fortunes, and the majority Hutu now kept down the Tutsi. Many Tutsis fled the country. In 1989, Tutsis in exile in Uganda formed the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF); they attacked Rwanda from the north the following year. In response, the Hutu-led Rwandan government clamped down on the Tutsi population and Hutu extremism flowered. Ethnic hatred and conflict filled the land. In 1993 the Rwandan government and the RPF signed a peace treaty, known as the Arusha Accords, and the UN sent a peacekeeping mission to try and keep the peace and implement the agreement. *The political instability and growing ethnic violence exploded on 6 April 1994 when President Habyarimana was killed. The UN Security Council now had to decide the fate of the Rwandans. Although there were many reasons why the Security Council decided to reduce the peacekeeping force, a central factor was that states would not provide reinforcements. *Why were states unwilling to send troops? They concluded that it was not worth sacrificing their own citizens to save Rwandans, a quintessentially realist conclusion. *USA Decision to not impose: 1.no economy overlap 2.a previous event had dramatized the dangers of allowing the heart to guide American foreign policy—Somalia *The pentagon not only did it oppose putting American troops on the ground, but it opposed any intervention whatsoever because of the fear that if the UN intervened and failed then the USA would have to pick up the pieces. WHEN THEY CARED: As the RPF routed the Rwandan army, in June and July nearly two million Hutu, the greatest single refugee movement since the Second World War, fled to the neighboring countries of Tanzania, Burundi, and, mostly, Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo), where they established refugee camps the size of cities that quickly became incubators of disease and death. The media now rushed to cover the emergency. AFTER:The international community's indifference to Rwanda brought tremendous shame to the UN Security Council and the UN itself. In response to the failure in Rwanda and the humanitarian interventions in Kosovo and East Timor, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged the UN General Assembly in 1999 to consider adopting a doctrine for humanitarian intervention.

Operation Anadyr

*DEFF: during the Cuban missile crisis, this is the secretive operation in which Soviet missiles were delivered to Cuba, eluding all methods of detection until missiles were deployed in the field. *was planned by a specially created sub-unit of the operations branch of the Soviet General Staff, working closely with Soviet intelligence agencies.Once the weapons and equipment arrived in Cuba, however, control of the operation shifted to the Group of Soviet Forces in Cuba.

Cuban Missile Crisis: Final resolution deal (public and secret components)

*Deliberations began with news of the impending Kennedy speech. Not yet knowing what Kennedy would say, Khrushchev feared the worst; namely, that the Americans would simply attack Cuba. Therefore, Kennedy's blockade announcement was greeted not with fear, but with relief by the Soviet leadership, which considered it a weaker response that left room for political manoeuvre. The next day, 24 October, Khrushchev issued a flat, unyielding response to Kennedy's demands. By the morning of 25 October, Kennedy had sent the Soviets a tough, terse reply. He wrote, 'It was not I who issued the first challenge in this case'. He also underscored his 'hope that your government will take the necessary action to permit a restoration of the earlier situation'. Khrushchev reconvened the Presidium. He switched to a tone of conciliation. He was ready, he said, to 'dismantle the missiles to make Cuba into a zone of peace'. He suggested the following: 'Give us a pledge not to invade Cuba, and we will remove the missiles'. He was also prepared to allow UN inspection of the missile sites. First, though, he wanted to be able to 'look around' and be sure that Kennedy really would not yield. Khrushchev was stirred to action the next day by a series of intelligence reports, some false and based on little more than rumour, warning of imminent American military action against Cuba. He promptly sent instructions to accept UN Secretary-General U Thant's proposal for avoiding a confrontation at the quarantine line, promising to keep Soviet ships away from this line. He also dictated a long personal letter to Kennedy suggesting a peaceful resolution of the crisis. In the letter, he stated that if the USA promised not to invade Cuba, 'the necessity for the presence of our military specialists in Cuba would disappear'. *. The lengthy and discursive 'Friday letter' suggesting the withdrawal of Soviet missiles for a non-invasion pledge was sent secretly and considered by the ExComm in secret. The 'Saturday letter' not only changed the terms of the deal, adding a new demand—the withdrawal of Turkish missiles as well—but it did so in a public message (broadcast on television and radio before the letter arrived), making it politically impossible for Khrushchev's American counterparts to accept this compromise without losing face. Kennedy had no difficulty accepting the terms proposed by Khrushchev's Friday letter: pledging not to invade Cuba if missiles were dismantled. But the problem was how to answer Saturday's proposal to trade NATO missiles in Turkey for Soviet missiles in Cuba. *before the USA had made a final decision about military action, Khrushchev had begun to move. Warning signs of imminent combat in Cuba arrived in Moscow during the day of 27 October. In a letter to Khrushchev from the previous night, Castro asserted that an American attack in the next twenty-four to seventy-two hours was 'almost inevitable'—probably a massive air strike, but possibly an invasion. If the Americans did invade, Castro urged Khrushchev to consider the 'elimination of such a danger', plainly referring to the use of Soviet nuclear weapons against the Americans. ' *Khrushchev opened the Presidium session on the morning of Sunday 28 October with yet another about-face in his assessment of the American danger. This time he told his Presidium colleagues that they were 'face to face with the danger of war and of nuclear catastrophe, with the possible result of destroying the human race'. He went on: 'In order to save the world, we must retreat' (Fursenko and Naftali 1997: 284). Shortly thereafter, Soviet leaders broadcast an urgent message over the radio announcing that they would withdraw their missiles from Cuba.

Cuban Missile Crisis and détente

*Detente refers to the relaxation/releasing of tension of relationships between countries. *For thirteen days, the USA and the Soviet Union stood 'eyeball to eyeball', each with the power of mutual destruction in hand. Having peered over the edge of the nuclear cliff, both nations edged backwards towards détente

The Maastricht treaty

*Established in 1992, signed by 12 countries - France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, spain ( Followed by the fall of the berlin wall) *Established the European Union *Increased cooperation between European countries - citizenship, security, laid foundations of europe

Cuban Missile Crisis: Jupiter MRBMs deployed in Turkey

*Following the blockade, he said, the USA would negotiate for the removal of missiles from Turkey and Italy and talk about closing the US base at Guantanamo in Cuba. *Before Kennedy had a chance to reply to the first letter, Khrushchev sent another letter, making a more concrete offer that acknowledged the presence of missiles in Cuba, but demanded that the USA withdraw its missiles in Turkey in exchange for removing them. *In sum, the blockade did not change Khrushchev's mind. Only when coupled with the threat of further military action and sweetened with the prospect of removing the Jupiter missiles in Turkey did it succeed in forcing Soviet withdrawal of the missiles. *What narrowed that room was Khrushchev's belief that he faced a clear, urgent threat of America moving up the ladder of escalation on the one hand, or the opportunity to achieve withdrawal of US missiles from Turkey if he backed down.

EU enlargement: German Constitution and "stability transfer"

*German Constitution: The preamble of the German Constitution commits the Federal Republic to the goal of building a peaceful and stable European order. *This notion of 'stability transfer' was designed to serve German national interests by surrounding it with allies and partners, and drew on Germany's own experience of post-war Westbindung

Syrian Civil War: sectarian subtext

*The regime has consistently incited sectarian hatred and instilled fear among the Syrian minorities in order to rally support. The sectarian divide has also been deepened with the expansion of the Islamist front, which consists of Salafists, jihadists, and Jabhat al-Nusra with allegiance to al-Qaeda. *The sectarian divide is reflected in the pattern of fighting where the Alawite government forces, militias, and Shia groups fight against the largely Sunni-dominated rebel groups.

Neoclassical Realism

*a version of realism which combines systemic factors, such as the international distribution of power as emphasized by neorealists, with domestic (or unit level) factors, such as how power is perceived and how leadership is exercised. *is a subschool within realism that seeks to rectify this imbalance between the general and the particular. *They looked inside states to see how governmental actors registered and processed systemic pressures, tracking how various aspects of domestic politics could alter the effect of a given external incentive on the resulting foreign policy choice.

France vs. Germany divergence on the EU's eastward enlargement

*Germany: Reunified Germany quickly emerged as a strong proponent of a simultaneous widening and deepening of the process of European integration.--For German decision makers—following their rapid absorption of East Germany—both the deepening and the widening of the EU were central foreign policy objectives, providing the solution to the dilemmas of their Mittellage ('central geographical location'). *France: France, on the other hand, while not rejecting enlargement per se, stressed the importance of ensuring that enlargement did not threaten further integration towards the political project of a Europe puissance ('European power').---French decision makers were determined to consolidate their institutionalized partnership with Germany prior to any enlargement of the Union, fearing that Germany's geopolitical interests would push its government to develop close partnerships with its neighbours in Mitteleuropa. In this way, French decision makers hoped that, in cooperation with their German counterparts, they would provide strategic leadership for Europe (Pedersen 1998) and constitute its core within a Europe defined by 'concentric circles' of integration.--Although enlargement was seen by the French as a distant prospect, they did not deny that it was a long-term historical responsibility and political necessity (Not cheap) *the early 1990s were marked by great strides forward in the process of European integration, which in many respects constituted the high tide of supranationalism: the internal market was completed by 1992, and in the same year the Maastricht Treaty establishing the EU and setting out the timetable for monetary union was negotiated. This reflected a widely held view—underwritten by a powerful constituency consisting of the Commission, France, and Germany—that widening should not be at the expense of deepening. Indeed, a deepening of the European integration process was considered crucial to the creation of a stabilizing core for post-Cold War Europe. Above all, deepening addressed a central concern of the French, which was to anchor a reunified Germany firmly within a more integrated European structure.

Cognitive attributes of human decision-making (simplicity, consistency, loss aversion, etc)

*Human beings have a preference for simplicity. They are also averse to ambiguity and want consistency instead. Further, they misunderstand fundamentally the essence of probability, which makes them intuitively poor estimators. Lastly, humans have risk profiles that depart from models of rational choice; as a result, we are far more averse to loss than we are gain-seeking. 1. simplicity: Political leaders making decisions about the world need to order that world, making its complexities somewhat simpler. To do so, they unconsciously strip the nuances, context, and subtleties out of the problems they face in order to build simple frames. When they look to the past to learn about the future, political leaders tend to draw simple one-to-one analogies without qualifying conditions. 2.Cognitive psychologists have produced robust evidence that people strongly prefer consistency, that they are made uncomfortable by dissonant information, and that they consequently deny or discount inconsistent information to preserve their beliefs. This drive for consistency impairs the processes of estimation and judgement. 3.People are not intuitive probability thinkers. They depart systematically from what objective probability calculations would dictate in the estimates they make. Foreign policy experts are no exception. Where we can compare their estimates with those that would be generated by objective calculations of probability, experts do surprisingly poorly.- Cognitive biases + fundamental atrribution error+ hindsight bias. 3.loss aversion: Leaders tend to be risk averse when things are going well and relatively risk acceptant when things are going badly—when they face a crisis in which they are likely to lose or have lost something that matters to them. Leaders are also likely to take greater risk to protect what they already have—the 'endowment effect'—than to increase their gains. They are also likely to take greater risk to reverse losses, to recapture what they once held, than they would to make new gains. And when decision makers suffer a significant loss, they are far slower to accommodate to these losses than they would be to incorporate gains. Finally, leaders reverse their preferences and make different choices when problems are reframed as losses rather than gains.

Cuban Missile Crisis: SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures)

*Model 2 *At any given time, a government consists of existing organizations, each with a fixed set of standard operating procedures and programmes. The behaviour of these organizations—and consequently of the government—in any particular instance is determined primarily by routines established prior to that instance. Explanation of a government action starts from this baseline. To be sure, organizations do change and learning occurs gradually. Dramatic organizational change can occur in response to major disasters, but both learning and change are influenced by existing organizational capabilities and procedures.

Cuban Missile Crisis: Bargaining games

*Model 3 *For this model, events in foreign affairs are characterized neither as unitary choices nor as organizational outputs. What happens is understood instead as a result of bargaining games among players in the national government.

Arguments against "containing" China

*More constructivist/ liberalist view *Will antagonize china, and they will be more compelled to be aggressive *We will trigger/prompt the chinese to more quickly translate their economic power into military capability. *"China will always only remain an asian power, not a world power" // "it has never been a global power and will most likely ever become a global power" (kept from google doc)

Neo-Isolationsim in US FP

*Neo-isolationism, also known as an 'interest-based' foreign policy or a 'strategy of restraint', harks back to an earlier period of American foreign policy when the USA was not as deeply involved in managing the affairs of other states and had not assumed the role of global hegemon. *neo-isolationists are not arguing that the USA should cut itself off from the rest of the world, but rather that the best method of preserving national security is for America to focus first and foremost on its own national interests. *The core argument of neo-isolationism is that the USA is extraordinarily secure from external threats, which they argue is a function of its favourable insular position, weak neighbours to the North and South, immense military capabilities, and strong relative standing in the global distribution of power, all of which allows for a drastic reduction in America's security commitments to Europe, Asia, and much of the rest of the world. *According to neo-isolationists, America has more than enough power to guarantee its security, and its overriding national security objective should be to safeguard its position by greatly limiting its involvement in the affairs of other states.

intervention in Libya (2011)

*The international community's intervention in Libya in March 2011 suggests how a combination of interests and values can push even lukewarm powerful states into a supporting role. *While the Arab Spring was accruing, the western government were unsure how to respond in a way that promoted peace. * The USA was particularly challenged by this turn of events. It had strong alliances with many of the governments that were the target of pro-democracy movements, including Bahrain and Egypt. *The USA's attempt to maintain a cautious foreign policy became impossible to sustain when the Libyan people chose to join the cause for political change. *When a major rebellion began in Libya, the US was in support but not enough to offer military support. *But then the military campaign turned against the rebels, and Gaddafi's son called the rebels 'cockroaches' and threatened to turn the streets of Benghazi red with blood.The Libyan government was threatening to level the city, treating civilians as legitimate targets; and Gaddafi, widely called crazy and a madman, seemed to be the sort of leader whose threats of atrocity should be believed. Genocide appeared to be imminent. *The US was split, under the Obama office, whether to intervene or not. Many wanted to avoid another Rwanda. *On 18 March 2011, President Obama announced that the US would participate in an international coalition whose goal was to protect civilian lives. Although he mentioned that American national interests were at stake, and in the background there were murmurs for 'regime change', with the rest of the world, including the Arab League, backing the use of force for humanitarian protection, the fear was that if the US failed to act in this instance and under these forgiving circumstances, then it would surrender its moral capital. At this moment, world forces came together to produce a sentiment and machinery to protect civilians in Libya.

Anarchy from constructivist perspective

*anarchy is the culture, the context, the subtext, it doesn't mean the war against all . *anarchy exists in different forms with major implications for how agents act. *he implication was that not only is anarchy what states make of it, but that cultures of anarchy can be changed.

Hegemonic Stability Theory

*builds on the observation that powerful states tend to seek dominance over all or parts of any international system, thus fostering some degree of hierarchy within the overall systemic anarchy. *The theory's core prediction is that any international order is stable only to the degree that the relations of authority within it are sustained by the underlying distribution of power.

Logics of action from constructivist perspective

*the assumption is that agents calculate the consequences of a particular course of action and will choose the action that offers them the most utility. However, they contend that actors may also act from a 'logic of appropriateness', where the assumption is that as agents are rule followers, they will try to follow rules that associate particular identities to particular situations (Risse 2003: 163), and they will consider which action is the most appropriate behaviour for them. *The two logics are useful for understanding the kind of reflections that precede foreign policy action, but they should not be seen as exclusive to each other. Constructivists assume that agents will try to do the right thing in accordance with their identity, but they acknowledge that much will depend on the context of the situation, or indeed that some actions may simply be the result of habit. The point is that it cannot always be assumed that all agents only utilize the 'logic of consequence'

Neoconservatism: main tenets

1. The first premise of the neoconservative stance in foreign policy is moral clarity about the forces of good and evil in the international arena. 2. The second premise of neoconservative foreign policy thought is that the USA should strive to preserve its military pre-eminence in the post-Cold War world. ---the USA should work towards what Kristol and Kagan call 'a benevolent US hegemony', meaning a situation where the USA 'enjoys [both] strategic and ideological predominance' in the world. 3. The third tenet is that the USA should leverage its military power, i.e. be willing to use military force to pursue its foreign policy goals. 4. Fourth, there is also a deep scepticism on the part of the neoconservatives about the ability of international law and institutions to bring about peace and justice in this world. ---Institutions such as the International Criminal Court and the United Nations are seen by neoconservatives as mechanisms used by weaker powers to tie down the USA. If the weaker nations had as much power as the USA, they would also be suspicious of these institutions. ---Institutions such as the International Criminal Court and the United Nations are seen by neoconservatives as mechanisms used by weaker powers to tie down the USA. If the weaker nations had as much power as the USA, they would also be suspicious of these institutions.

Essence of constructivism

1.A belief in the social construction of reality and the importance of social facts. 2.A focus on ideational as well as material structures and the importance of norms and rules. 3.A focus on the role of identity in shaping political action and the importance of 'logics of action'. 4.A belief in the mutual constitutiveness of agents and structure, and a focus on practice and action.

Treaty of Lisbon

1.Strengthened the institutional framework of European foreign policy - gave EU full legal personality 2.Enhanced/widened/deepened democracy and better protection of fundamental rights 3. European external action service 4. European council rotates every 2.5 years

EU: Challenge of Turkey's membership

1999 - The EU argued that it was imperative to grow the EU to maintain and further political stability and prosperity. They doubted Turkey's application between it could be argued that Turkey did not yet meet the political conditions needed to provide effective so they rejected it (pg.442) Argued that Turkey is simply a muslim country

Cuban Missile Crisis: conceptual models

DEFF: a theoretical construct used to facilitate the reasoning of a complex framework of processes. *In attempting to explain a particular event, the analyst cannot simply describe the full state of the world leading up to that event. Explaining the event logically requires the use of conceptual models to isolate the critical determinants that led to one state of the world rather than another. Conceptual models not only fix the mesh of the nets that the analyst drags through the material in order to explain a particular action, but they also direct the analyst to cast nets in selected ponds, at certain depths, in order to catch the fish he/she is after. *Model I analysts characterize as 'acts' and 'choices' are thought of instead as outputs of previously established organizations following pre-existing patterns of behavior. *aced with the fact of Soviet missiles in Cuba, a Model II analyst focuses on the relevant government organizations and their standard operating procedures for (1) acquiring information, (2) defining feasible options, and (3) implementing a programme. ----The analyst infers: if organizations produced an output of a certain kind at a certain time, that behaviour resulted from existing organizational structures, procedures, and repertories. A Model II analyst explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis will identify the relevant Soviet organizations and patterns of organizational behaviour from which the action emerged. *Model III focuses on the individual players that compose a government and the bargaining among them. For this model, events in foreign affairs are characterized neither as unitary choices nor as organizational outputs. What happens is understood instead as a result of bargaining games among players in the national government. Model III analysis begins with the proposition that knowledge of the leader's initial preferences is, by itself, rarely a sufficient guide for explanation or prediction. The proposition reflects the fact that power in government is most often shared.

Cuban Missile Crisis: Cold War context

DEFF:the intense period of ideological animosity between the USA and the Soviet Union that lasted from the mid-1940s to the early 1990s. 1. The Soviet Union puts missiles in Cuba clandestinely (September 1962). 2. American U-2 flight photographs Soviet missiles (14 October 1962). 3. President Kennedy initiates a public confrontation by announcing the Soviet action to the world, demanding Soviet removal of their missiles, ordering a US quarantine of Soviet weapon shipments to Cuba, putting US strategic forces on alert, and warning the Soviet Union that any missile launched from Cuba would be regarded as a Soviet missile and met with a full retaliatory response (22 October). 4. Khrushchev orders Soviet strategic forces to alert and threatens to sink US ships if they interfere with Soviet ships en route to Cuba (23 October). 5. Soviet ships stop short of the US quarantine line (24 October). 6. Khrushchev's private letter says the necessity for the Soviet deployment would disappear if the USA will pledge not to invade Cuba (26 October), followed by a second, public, Khrushchev letter demanding USA withdrawal of Turkish missiles for Soviet withdrawal of Cuban missiles (27 October). 7. The USA responds affirmatively to the first Khrushchev letter, but says that, first, missiles now in Cuba must be rendered inoperable and urges quick agreement. Robert Kennedy adds privately that missiles in Turkey will eventually be withdrawn, but that the missiles in Cuba must be removed immediately and a commitment to that effect must be received the next day, otherwise military action will follow (27 October). 8.Khrushchev publicly announces that the USSR will withdraw its missiles in Cuba (28 October).

Indexing hypothesis in media analysis

Def :Bennett's (1990) widely adopted theoretical framework that explains the tendency of US journalists to defer to, or index the news to, official US government sources when defining the news agenda and framing news stories. Simpler terms:describes how US journalists follow foreign policy elites in terms of both the news agenda and the framing of foreign affairs issues, rather than striking out independently.

Red-team thinking

Deff from book: in order to provide a more nuanced understanding of how an opponent will act in any given situation, security and military agencies engage in 'red-team thinking', whereby a team is given the responsibility to consider a situation from the viewpoint of the opponent.

Acquis Communautaire

EU terminology for the entire body of European law, including all the treaties, regulations, and directives passed by European institutions.

The Camp David Accords of 1978

For Sadat, however, the notion of remaining hostile to Israel because of the (PLO,) Palestinian Liberation Organization, was no longer acceptable. Instead, he remained committed to pursuing a policy which would disengage Egypt from a conflict that, with the ascension of Begin, looked as if it had every potential to become even more destabilizing. On 9 November 1977, the Egyptian President announced that he would be prepared to visit Jerusalem in search of peace if an invitation was extended to him by the Israelis. Within the same month, Sadat was in Jerusalem to begin negotiations that would lead to him and Begin signing the Camp David Accords on 17 September 1978, followed by the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty of March 1979. The treaty returned Sinai to Egypt, but brought with it vociferous criticism of Egypt from Arab states who believed that Egypt's accommodation with Israel would allow the latter to consolidate its hold over other territories occupied in 1967, and to pose a far more dangerous threat to the states still confronting her.

The Copenhagen Criteria for EU membership

Good human rights record, have a constitution, abolish capital punishment, and you don't have a major territorial conflict

Anchoring heuristic/fallacy

Heuristics: The rules that decision makers use to process information; short cuts/rule of thumb. Anchoring : refers to the magnitude by picking an "available" initial value as a reference point and then making a comparison.

"Inherent bad faith model" in FPA

In foreign policy, the 'inherent bad faith model' is an example of a long-term belief that is impervious to new information.

The endowment effect

Leaders are also likely to take greater risk to protect what they already have—the 'endowment effect'—than to increase their gains.

Pluralist Vs. Elitist Model in public opinion analysis

Pluralist: The pluralist model assumes that power is dispersed throughout society (including across the media and the public) so that no one group or set of interests dominates. As such, pluralist accounts maintain that media and publics are independent from political influence and therefore can (and should) act as powerful constraints upon governments. Elite : the elite model assumes that power is concentrated within elite groups who are able to dominate politics and society. Elite accounts maintain that both media and public opinion are subservient to political elites. From this perspective, media have a rather less independent form of influence—acting as mouthpieces for government officials, operating to mobilize publics in support of their policies.

Media's public opinion influence: procedural/cosmetic vs. substantive

Procedural: the term 'procedural' is used to describe media criticism and influence that relates to debates over the actual implementation of policy decisions. Substantive:The term 'substantive' has been used to describe criticism and influence that relates to the underlying justifications and rationale for particular foreign policies.

Arab-Israeli conflicts: Six Day War (1967) & Yom Kippur War (1973)

Six Day War- *The problem was that the proposed 'homeland' was already the home of others—Palestinian Arabs—who could also prove their ancient tenure on the narrow strip of land between the River Jordan and the Mediterranean Sea. This competition over territory, rather than religiously based competition, is at the core of the conflict between Palestinians and Israeli Jews. *The dispute became widened beyond the territorial setting of Palestine/Israel in 1948 when the state of Israel was declared and neighbouring Arab states attempted to destroy it. From then on, the confrontation concerned not just the future of Palestinians and Israelis. *The Six-Day War was undoubtedly a triumph for Israel. Large tracts of territory of strategic importance had been gained, including the Sinai Peninsula, the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and the Golan Heights. Moreover, the defeat inflicted upon the Arab states had thrown their regimes into disarray. Their inability to return Palestinian land generated deep dissatisfaction within their domestic publics, which questioned the very legitimacy of the regimes themselves. GOOGLED STUFF:In response to the apparent mobilization of its Arab neighbours, early on the morning of June 5, Israel staged a sudden preemptive air assault that destroyed more than 90 percent Egypt's air force on the tarmac. A similar air assault incapacitated the Syrian air force. Without cover from the air, the Egyptian army was left vulnerable to attack. Within three days the Israelis had achieved an overwhelming victory on the ground, capturing the Gaza Strip and all of the Sinai Peninsula up to the east bank of the Suez Canal. An eastern front was also opened on June 5 when Jordanian forces began shelling West Jerusalem—disregarding Israel's warning to King Hussein to keep Jordan out of the fight—only to face a crushing Israeli counterattack. On June 7 Israeli forces drove Jordanian forces out of East Jerusalem and most of the West Bank. Photos and films of Israeli troops taking control of the Old City of Jerusalem have proved to be some of the war's iconic images. Yom (Googled) :The Yom Kippur War, Ramadan War, or October War also known as the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, was fought from October 6 to 25, 1973, by a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria against Israel.

The idea of a "Europe of concentric circles"

The idea of concentric circles became firmly established in the EC, which, as the institutional guardian of the Community, thought that widening must not come at the expense of deepening.These concentric circles would enable the Community to proceed with economic and political integration in the core, while building strong relations with European neighbours without offering them immediate membership of the EU.

Media's public opinion influence: episodic vs. thematic coverage

Thematic News : a term used to describe news media reports that are framed in terms of the broad context surrounding an issue. For example, a news report on the 2003 Iraq war could be described as thematic if it dealt with the background to the conflict including possible causes and debate over the justification for the war. Episodic: a term used to describe news media reports that are framed in terms of immediate events and without broader context. A news report detailing the progress of US troops during the 2003 Iraq War, but providing no broader contextualization (e.g. the justification and rationale for the military action), could be described as episodic.

Traditional Diplomacy vs. Public Diplomacy (PD)

Traditional diplomacy: relations between states carried out at government levels via official channels of communication. Public Diplomacy : public diplomacy in the twenty-first century had a multidisciplinary appeal, attracting input from across a wide range of disciplines, most notably psychology, history, communications, media, marketing, and public relations. *Where traditional diplomacy utilizes official government-to-government channels to manage and influence the external environment, public diplomacy involves public audiences in the process.

Tiananmen Square demonstrations: FP consequences

USA : The West, however, immediately backed up its words with a variety of sanctions. For example, on 5 June the USA suspended sales of weapons and exchanges between military leaders. By 20 June, it had begun to use a wider variety of foreign policy tools: it had banned all exchanges with the Chinese government above the level of assistant secretary, halted a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, and instructed its representatives at the World Bank and Asian Development Bank to postpone consideration of new loans to China. Some 45,000 Chinese in the USA had their visas extended. The US government allowed Fang Lizhi and his wife and son to seek protection in America's Beijing embassy. *The European Community (now European Union) as well as individual European states announced a set of sanctions similar to those enacted in the USA. These included a ban on sales of military equipment and on high-level ministerial visits and the suspension of government-guaranteed loans. Japan followed suit, terminating a major loan negotiation and recalling a number of banking and other commercial staff. Australia cancelled a prime ministerial visit, and New Zealand a planned visit of its Minister of Police. *It has been estimated that Tian'anmen cost China about US$11 billion in bilateral aid over four years. China also experienced a two-year decline in its credit rating, foreign investment, exports, and tourist visits. However, the damage went well beyond the economic, significantly tarnishing China's international image. Expressions of regret over the carnage came from many governments, even those, such as the Brazilian and Malaysian governments, usually unwilling to comment on internal upheavals in other countries.

Democratic Peace Thesis

a central plank of internationalist thought which maintains that liberal democracies tend not to make war on fellow democracies. Some advocates go further and argue that democratic states are more peace prone per se. In other words the thesis states that democratic gov wont fight with each other but rather nondemocratic countries.

Groupthink

a concept used to describe the failure of small decision units to meet the criteria of optimal decision making by their tendency, under certain conditions, to reach a decision too quickly as a result of premature consensus seeking.

Behavioralism in FPA

a movement in the USA, initiated just prior to the Second World War and culminating during the first two decades after the war, whose proponents argued that the social sciences, including IR, could move forward only by modelling themselves on the natural sciences. More specifically, this meant an emphasis on a theoretically grounded empiricism (with an emphasis on quantitative methodology) in contrast with descriptive, historical, and normative scholarship.

Prospect theory

how individuals evaluate and choose between available options, and is used to explain why people consistently deviate from the predictions of rational choice. *a psychological theory of decision making under different frames of reference, would shed light on this line of thinking. Decision makers who see themselves as operating in the domain of gain tend to choose risk-averse policies; when they find themselves in the domain of loss—as Bush and his advisers must have found themselves—they are inclined to pick high-risk options

Soft Power

indirect influence over political bodies through personal relationship building and through cultural and ideological means. Soft power can be distinguished from more directly coercive exercises of power, such as military action (hard power) or economic incentives.

Neoconservatism: Neo-Reaganite Foreign Policy

neo-Reaganite foreign policy of military supremacy and moral confidence'. Such a policy would involve the following: ●A consistently strong defence budget that reinforces the power disparity between the US and would-be challengers. ●Educating Americans about the role they can play in understanding and supporting US armed forces as they carry out the 'responsibilities of global hegemony'. ●Having a clear moral purpose behind American foreign policy. The USA should be in the business of promoting democracy, free markets, and individual liberty abroad. DEFF IN BOOK OF Reaganite foreign policy: an approach to foreign policy that privileges moral argument, military might, promotion of democracy and individual liberty, and using all these resources to confront America's adversaries. Neoconservatives believe this was how President Ronald Reagan (1981-1989) dealt with the Soviet Union. He was not afraid to characterize the latter as an 'evil empire' and the massive increase in military expenditure during his administration helped bring about the collapse of the Soviet empire.

Notion of "regimes" in neoliberal institutionalism

neoliberal institutionalism: It assumes that states are the primary actors in the international system, that they behave like egoistic value maximizers, and that the international system is essentially anarchic, i.e. non-hierarchical, in distinction from domestic polities "Regimes" : whereas both neorealists and neoliberals view foreign policy making as a process of constrained choice on the part of states acting rationally and strategically, the latter understand this constraint not primarily in terms of the international configurations of power capabilities facing states, but in terms of an anarchic system which, while it fosters uncertainty and hence security concerns, can nevertheless be positively affected by the creation of regimes providing information and common rules, thereby fostering international cooperation to at least some degree. Thus, instead of viewing international institutions as epiphenomenal and hence constituting a 'false promise', neoliberal institutionalists emphasize that such institutions do matter—that they 'make a difference in the behaviour of states and in the nature of international politics'

Responsibility To Protect (R2P)

the legal and ethical basis for humanitarian intervention by external actors in a state that is unwilling or unable to fight genocide, massive killings, and other massive human rights violations The principle of responsibility to protect holds that if a particular state is unwilling or unable to carry out its responsibility to prevent such abuses, that responsibility must be transferred to the international community. This community will seek first to solve problems primarily via peaceful means, but will, as a last resort, use military force.

The big question mark about China's future

whether this market base authoritarianism would work while being politically centralized (kept this from the study guide)

Widening versus Deepening debate about EU's future

widening should not be at the expense of deepening. Indeed, a deepening of the European integration process was considered crucial to the creation of a stabilizing core for post-Cold War Europe.

Balance of threat theory

•a realist theory explaining strategic reactions to a rising and potentially threatening hegemonic state. •Threat is driven by a combination of aggregate, geography, and perceptions if aggressive intentions. *If one state becomes especially powerful, and if its location and behaviour feed threat perceptions on the part of other states, then balancing strategies will come to dominate their foreign policies.