International Foods Ag3319
What happened in 2008?
2008: dramatic increases in the price of food. Increased awareness of the increasing interconnectedness of food, agriculture, and rich and poor countries The issue of non-food uses as a potentially important driver of world food prices (biofuels) The role of speculation
What is dietary deficiency or micronutrient malnutrition? What vitamins/minerals is this malnutrition most concerned with?
A diet lacking in sufficient amounts of one or more essential micronutrients, such as a vitamin or mineral. Vitamin A, iodine, and iron. Vitamins are organic and can be broken down by heat, air, or acid. Minerals are inorganic and hold onto their chemical structure
What are potential food impacts of demand for biofuels?
A growing proportion of agricultural production is used for nonfood purposes. Fiber crops, tobacco, coffee, tea: 3.6% of total arable land (this has slightly declined). Illegal drugs: 1% of arable land Pet food: growing Biofuel growth: substantial impact; In 2016, expected to be equivalent to 315 calories/person per day
momentum in population growth
A population would simply reproduce itself if individual couples produced exactly the right number of children to replace themselves (accounting for the fact that some children die before arriving at childbearing age). In most populations, this equals 2.1 children per couple (or per woman). If fertility rate is > 2.1, the population will grow. If fertility rate is < 2.1 the population will shrink Assuming no net immigration/emigration and no improvements to increase average life expectancy to increase pop. size
How much of the world's population suffer from undernutrition?
About 13% of the world's population suffer from undernutrition.
Have we made progress regarding solving undernutrition? How much progress?
About 40% of the world's population suffered from undernutrition in the 1960s. Today that number is close to 10%.
How many calories from vegetable and animal sources does the U.S. consume versus the developed countries average and the developing countries average?
Beef or mutton - 11 Pork or poultry - 4 Milk - 8 Eggs - 4 The current developing country diet is ~370 calories from animal sources and ~2700 from plant sources. If 6 plant-derived calories are needed to produce 1 animal calorie, this means that developing country diets require ~4500 plant-derived calories. If calories from animal products increase to 17% of 2700, the total needed is 4900 plant-derived calories.
What role does breastfeeding play in undernutrition?
Breast milk contains all the nutrients a child needs during the first months of life, and helps fight infection. Provides baby with guaranteed food supply (the child doesn't have to compete with other family members). It's clean -babies aren't exposed to diseases causes by unsanitary food and water
What factors shift the supply for food?
Changes in the availability of resources used to produce food Changes in technology or in efficiency of resource use
Who is most likely to be undernourished?
Children are far most vulnerable, especially at weaning time (transition from 100% breast milk to 100% other foods). In developing countries, it often takes place between 6 months and 2 years Pregnant mothers and lactating women are next most vulnerable to undernutrition followed by elderly women. During extreme food shortages a broader segment of the population is at-risk including able-bodied men. Occasional reports of food deprivation based on gender.
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
Compares the purchase power of the local currency to the power of the dollar Translates to how much it would cost in the local economy to buy the same goods in the U.S. with $1 PPP makes poor countries a little less poor and rich countries a little less rich because in high-income countries, the cost of living is relatively higher
What happened to cause the Somalia famine?
Driving factors: 1.Drought was a major trigger 2.Rapid increase in food prices in 2008 3.Impact of conflict and civilian displacement 4.Insecurity made Somalia a dangerous place for humanitarian aid workers 5.A long history of food-aid diversion "revenue raising" by warlords 6.Restrictions by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Department of the Treasury The Office of Foreign Assets Control ("OFAC") of the US Department of the Treasury. Administers and enforces economic and trade sanctions based on US foreign policy and national security goals against targeted foreign countries and regimes, terrorists, international narcotics traffickers, those engaged in activities. Former President Jimmy Carter criticized the Supreme Court decision: "The 'material support law' -which is aimed at putting an end to terrorism - actually threatens the work of many peacemaking organizations that must interact directly with groups that have engaged in violence. "The vague language of the law leaves us wondering if we will be prosecuted for our work to promote peace and freedom." The United Nations later accused the U.S. of deliberately politicizing its food aid (NY Times 2010)
What are the demographic and geographic characteristics of undernutrition?
Economic growth, but it has to be inclusive and provide opportunities for the poor, enhancing incomes of smallholder family farmers (rural populations) is key Social protection systems, Access to better nutrition (e.g. fortified foods), Access to health care, Access to education Access to clean water and sanitary conditions Natural disasters Human-made disasters (e.g. war) Political instability (e.g. leading to disruptions in food supply chain)
What does studying famines tell us in terms of lesson for better policy response?
Examples of failed policies Lessons for policies in response to famines: Better governance, Early warning and rapid response, Increased aggregate food availability, Distribution policies, Stabilization policies
What are the reasons (poor) women/families have many children?
Faced with scarcity, poor families need more children to help with work on the farm and because of high infant-mortality rates, they need more pregnancies and births
What is famine? How big of problem are they in terms of the world food problem?
Famines are localized, temporary, food shortages. They are almost always the result of the confluence of forces such as natural disasters and poor policy response. Only a fairly small part of the world food problem
What happened to cause the South Sudan famine?
Food cause: internal political conflict since 2005. between the president of South Sudan and his former deputy. between ethnic tribes - Dinka and Nuer. Creating landless, homeless, foodless refuges against a backdrop of extreme poverty. 80-85% of household income is spent on food. 1.3M forced from their homesb/c of fighting (FAO 2015). 3.5M in need of emergency aid (40% of the population). Food security depends on: Economic & geographic dislocation caused by internal conflict (farmers can not keep regular schedules, farm animals are killed, etc.). Weather, Policy - especially size of food aid
Why is GNP per capita not always a useful metric?
GNP only measures the level of income paid to all the country's citizens. It does not account for the improvement of longevity of human life or the quality of environment.
What are the trends in worldwide poverty rate?
Has declined. From 1970 to 2006, poverty fell by 86% in South Asia, 73% in Latin America, 39% in the Middle East, and 20% in Africa
What are common characteristics among poor populations and households?
Households are fragmented -one or more typically away to earn money. The household head is young, 'not having found good employment, already burdened with raising children'" Poor households are large and young (median 7-8 persons). There are 6 children under 18 for each adult over 51 years. Poorest households spend 56-78% of their income on food. Nearly half of the poorest households report at some during the year, adults reduce meal size. In 1/3 of these households, adults go entire day w/o food
What is the relationship between plant derived calories and animal calories?
If 6 plant-derived calories are needed to produce 1 animal calorie, this means that developing country diets require ~4500 plant-derived calories. If calories from animal products increase to 17% of 2700, the total needed is 4900 plant-derived calories.
Future age structure of a population - and how will this affect food demand?
If there are proportionally more adults than children, food needs go up
How does income elasticity relate to food demand?
Income elasticity of food. Chapter 7 estimates show that income elasticity for food is between 0.1 and 0.3. Meaning, a 1% increase in income will increase the quantity of food demand by a person 0.1 to 0.3%
How does increased inequality hurt the poor?
Increased inequality mean the poor have less income, so their food consumption declines and their chances of being undernourished increase. Increased income of the rich translate to increased demand for meat and dairy (animal products) -thus the price of grain increases.
What's laissez faire capitalism? How is it relevant to the Irish potato famine and general discussion on famine?
Individuals in power were proponents of free trade. abstention by governments from interfering in the workings of the free market. Exports of food from Ireland continued despite starvation "The Irish poor did not starve because there was inadequate supply of food within the country, they starved because political, commercial, and individual greed was given priority over saving lives" (Kinealy2002) The law of unintended consequences concerning poverty alleviation policy
What is the most significant avoidable cause of mental retardation worldwide?
Iodine deficiency. Iodine deficiency causes IQs 13.5 points below average (which is 100).
What is the relationship between body shape and risk of dying? (Waaler Surface)
Low spot shows height-weight combination where mortality is lowest. Generally mortality risk declines as height increases
What is income elasticity?
Measures the responsiveness of the quantity demanded for a good or service to a change in the income of the people demanding the good. Measures the extent to which a demand curve shifts out in response to an increase in income
What is price elasticity of supply?
Measures the steepness of the supply curve It measures how quantity supplied changes in response to a change in price as we move along the supply curve
What are disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)? What is this metric used for?
Measures the total amount of healthy life lost from pre-mature death or temporary or permanent disability.
Technology adoption - who in a population takes advantage of it and how does this relate to income distribution?
More advanced sectors are likely to be the first to take advantage of new technologies. New technologies require specialized knowledge and substantial capital
What are effective ways to lower fertility?
Most effective way is to reduce poverty. Birth control programs alone accounted for only 15-20% of overall fertility decline
What is the relationship between population growth and hunger?
Most hungry people live in Asia, Africa, & Latin America -and have populations that have grown fastest recently. Cornell U. sociologists (1989) found no evidence that rapid population growth causes hunger (in 93 countries). What they found: populations of poorer countries, and those where the poorest 20% earned a smaller % of the nation's total income, had less to eat Evidence that poverty and inequality (in terms of resources) cause hunger
Who is particularly at risk for fatal undernutrition? What are 2 low cost interventions that could move children from the mild-to-moderate undernutrition category to adequately nourished?
Mothers and their babies. Breast feeding.
What time of year is worst for undernutrition?
Natural disasters Human-made disasters (e.g. war) Political instability (e.g. leading to disruptions in food supply chain)
What is the relationship between population density and hunger?
No direct correlation between hunger and population density
How does average demand for food change as a result of the characteristics of the population?
Nutrient requirements depend on: age, sex, pregnancy, breast-feeding, and physical activity • Age structure Momentum in population growth Dependency ratios Future age structure of the population
Know the basics of the theory of demographic transition
Offers a general model for the gradual evolution of birth and death rates -S shaped curve Stage I: high birth and death rates; Pre-industrial stageBirth rate exceeds death ratePopulation grows but slowly. Stage II: birth rate high, declining mortality; Better health services, more reliable food & water -> death rate declines Stage III: declining birth rates; Industrialization and urbanization happens Birth rate lowers in response to desired family size Stage IV: low birth and death rates; 4th State (Modern stage)Birth rate falls as low as death rate -> population stabilizes 5thstage: fertility rates fall below replacement rate
What are the four types of malnutrition?
Overnutrition Secondary malnutrition Dietary deficiency (micronutrient deficiency) Protein-calorie malnutrition
What are the impacts of undernutrition on intellectual development?
Poor nutrition in the early years of life can have a negative impact on intellectual development. If a mother suffers from undernutrition during pregnancy, her baby can suffer from reduced intellectual capacity and cognitive functioning•Iodine deficiency is the most significant avoidable cause of mental retardation worldwide. Iodine deficiency causes IQs 13.5 points below average (which is 100). Research shows that if children miss breakfast -if they fast for 16 hrsor more -their school performance suffers. Poor memory and reduced ability to pay attention
What causes income convergence?
Poorer countries catching up to rich countries). More investment in productive capital, better equipment, infrastructure (roads, communications), better education. Investing in poor countries can have higher payoff (because investment will lead to an increase in production per person)
What factors shift the aggregate demand for food?
Population growth Changes in income or income distribution Changes in tastes and preferences
What caused the Irish potato famine? What 3 policy categories were relevant to the discussion of the Irish potato famine?
Potato blight - fungus turns potatoes black, rot in the ground. Nearly entire crops destroyed in 1846, 1848, 1849. Famine-related deaths: 290,000 - 1.25M (pre-famine pop. was 8M) Technological policy, Trade policy, and Poverty alleviation policy
Age structure
Reflects the underlying demographic conditions of the past, and is an important determinant of demographic conditions of the future. Is of interest to demographers b/c it provides clues about past and future population patterns
What happened to cause the North Korea famine?
Reliance on Soviet Union and China for: 1) food aid 2) domestic agriculture on subsidized imports of energy and fertilizer.....this dried up with the breakup of the Cold War. Drought in 1995. Collective farms where farm workers given a ration - then it was cut by over one-third to ship grain to hungry areas . Unintended consequences: farm workers secretly pre-harvested grain (cutting yields) and diverted their efforts to secret plots. 2-3 million died, 1994-1998- 10% of the population International response : 1M tons of food aid from 1995-98. Political demands from donor countries interfered: e.g. in 2002 U.S. suspended aid due to N. Korea's refusal to halt nuclear program (U.S. denied this).
How does undernutrition affect labor productivity?
Research shows smaller adults are less productive workers in many jobs. The World Bank (1995) estimates that this stunting causes an economic loss of $8.7 billion per year worldwide Correlation between lower wages and undernutrition Greater heights and BMIs are associated with higher wages Poorly nourished people are more likely to be unemployed (Strauss & Thomas 1998) Severe undernutrition excludes people from the workforce -link between nutrition and economic development
Does income equality promote economic growth?
Researchers (Ahluwalia et al., 1979) found that countries that were most successful in reducing income inequality were also countries with the highest rates of growth per capita incomes World Bank found that the distribution of wealth strongly affects growth. Countries having great inequality of wealth grow more slowly than countries with less equality.
Who was Thomas Malthus - what was he right and wrong about?
Right: widely accepted ecological principle that any population will expand until it fills the ecological niche available to it. Population growth after he published was exponential. Wrong: Other checks to human population growth besides war, famine, and pestilence. Changing attitudes about family size -"small is beautiful" philosophy. Contraception. Enormous increases in agricultural production due to science and technology
What groups are most likely to fall victim to famines?
Small-scale farmers whose crops have failed and cannot find other employment. Landless agricultural workers who lose jobs when production declines; hit hard by raising food prices, & declining wages Rural people Pastoralists (herders, trade animals for food)
What specifically does undernutrition do to the body?
Stunts a person's physical growth Makes a person more susceptible to disease Reduces capacity to do physical work (economic implications) Interferes with intellectual growth Makes an individual more susceptible to disease Sometimes this leads to death Weakens immune system Weakens muscles (heart and muscles for breathing) Lowered capacity to fight dehydration (like that caused by diarrhea)
Are micronutrient interventions expensive? Where are dietary deficiency solutions likely to come from?
Successful Interventions-missing elements are inexpensive Iodized salt Fortified milk provides vitamin A & D Iron pills are common Switching from aluminum to iron cooking pots (Guatamala) Fortification of sugar with vitamin A (Gautamala) School drinking water fortified with iron (Brazil) Adding potassium iodine to irrigation water (China)
What were the two huge famines that illustrate that state socialism is not immune to poor policy choices?
The Ukraine Famine, 1932-1933 The Chinese "Great Leap Forward" Famine, 1959-1961
Dependency ratios
The ratio the dependents to working-age adults (15-64 years old) Adult dependency ratio: % of the population > 65years old divided by the working-age population Child dependency ratio: % of population < 15 years old divided by working age population Dependency ratios influence nutritional status b/c the young and elderly are more likely to be food-insecure, since they rely on others to provide them with food.
Demographic changes vs income growth on food demand
The total effect of demographic changes on food demand is expected to be negligible. However, growth of per capita income is likely to have much bigger effect on food demand. Income elasticity of food. Chapter 7 estimates show that income elasticity for food is between 0.1 and 0.3. Meaning, a 1% increase in income will increase the quantity of food demand by a person 0.1 to 0.3% The growth in per capita food consumption magnifies the impact of a growing population; not only are there more people to feed, but more people are eating more
Human fertility rates and population growth rates - what are the global trends?
They are decreasing
Gross national product (GNP) per capita
Total income earned per person. A measure of economic power
What is undernutrition and malnutrition?
Undernutrition: a form of malnutrition resulting from a reduced supply of food or from inability to digest, assimilate, and use the necessary nutrients. Malnutrition: the condition that develops when the body does not get the right amount of the vitamins, minerals, and other nutrients it needs to maintain healthy tissues and organ function.
Population pyramids
Visualize the age structure of a population
What does each of these deficiencies cause: vitamin A, iodine, iron?
Vitamin A: night blindness, increased mortality from respiratory and gastrointestinal disease, supplements could reduce deaths of children 6 mo-5 yrs by 23%. Iodine: goiter (increased size of thyroid), Reduction in mental abilities, Babies can suffer "cretinism" (stunted physical and mental growth) which can result in learning disabilities in children, 1/3 of the world's pop, lives in iodine deficient environments (WHO 2007). Iron: anemia, causes reduced capacity to work. Diminished ability to learn, increased susceptibility to infection, greater risk of death during pregnancy and childbirth. More than 40% of people in developing countries suffer from Fe deficiency
Gini Coefficient
measures inequality from 0 to 1 (or 0 to 100%) Zero expresses perfect equality (everyone has the same income) and 1 is most inequality (i.e. 1 person has all the wealth)
What is price elasticity of demand?
measures the steepness of the demand curve. It measures how much quantity demanded falls as prices increase OR how much quantity demanded rises as price decreases
Do most hunger related deaths occur in famines?
most hunger related deaths do not occur in famines...they happen daily - quietly and largely unchronicled - all around the world
What is the most common nutritional problem in high income countries?
obesity
What are the diseases associated with overnutrition?
obesity, diabetes, hypertension, atherosclerosis
Which type of malnutrition is the most common nutritional problem in high-income countries?
overnutrition
What causes hunger?
poverty and inequality
How has undernutrition changed over time?
the number of undernourished people has declined. 1970s: over 33% of the developing world's population was undernourished. By 2000: 18% 2014-16: <13%
What is aggregate supply?
the total supply of goods and services available to a particular market from producers.
Aggregate demand?
total amount of money exchanged for those goods and services at a specific price level and point in time.
What is secondary malnutrition? What are its causes?
when a person has a condition or illness that prevents proper digestion or absorption of food. When an individual's dietary intake is sufficient, but energy is not adequately absorbed by the body as a result of infectious conditions such as diarrhea, measles or parasitic infections, or medical or surgical problems affecting the digestive system. Called "secondary" because it does not result directly from the nature of the diet. Common causes: diarrhea, respiratory illnesses, measles, intestinal parasites. Loss of appetite, alteration of normal metabolism, prevention of nutrient absorption, diversion of nutrients to parasites. Sanitary human-waste disposal and clean water are especially important to reduce secondary malnutrition. Worldwide effort in increasing access to safe drinking water Low income people in developing countries are at risk for insufficient calories (undernutrition) which is commonly exacerbated by secondary malnutrition
What are 4 critical factors in analyzing future prospects for food supply and demand?
•Population •Prosperity •Pollution (or environmental resource quality) •Productivity in agriculture