IPP

Huntington on regional cultural norms

"The Clash of Civilizations?".The fundamental source of conflict in the new world will be cultural, not ideological or economic. Nation-states will remain the most powerful actors, but principal conflicts will be between nations and groups of different civilization. Differences between civilizations are real and important, civilization-consciousness is increasing, conflict between civilizations will supplant other forms of conflict, international relations will be de-Westernized, successful international institutions are more likley to develop w/in civilizations, conflicts will be more frequent between civilizations and could lead to global war, axis of world politics will be WvR, some non-Western elites will try to join West but face obstacles, central focus of conflict will be West v. Islamic-Confuscian states. Among nation-states from 1648-WWI, then ideological through Cold War - primarily conflicts w/in Western civilization. Now non-westerners are movers and shapers; divisions between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Worlds no longer relevant. Group countries by "civilizations" or cultural entities. Individuals have varying levels of identity (civilization being the broadest level), and can redefine their identities. Current civilizations are Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American, and possibly African. Differences among civilizations are basic (history, language, religion, culture, tradition); differences are the product of centuries and are fundamental; world is becoming smaller and increasing interactions btwn civilizations; the processes of economic modernization and social change are separating people from local identities and weakening the nation-state as a source of identity, leading to religion to fill gap; growth of civilization-consciousness is enhanced by role of West at peak of its power and a return-to-roots phenomenon outside of West; cultural characteristics and differences less mutable and less easily compromised than political and economic ones; economic regionalism is increasing. Cultural commonalities increasingly overcome ideological differences for economics; culture and religion forming basis of economic cooperation (e.g. Economic Cooperation Organization in non-Arab, non-Muslim countries). "Us" vs. "Them" becoming bigger relationship. Ideology losing power, so governments/groups increasingly attempting to mobilize support on basis of common religion and civilization identity. Micro-leve: groups fighting over control of territory; macro-level: civilizations competing for relative military and economic power. Kin-country syndrome becoming principal basis for cooperation and coalitions (e.g. Gulf War). West (US, Britain, and France) vs. Rest creates clashes about military, economic, and institutional power and differences in culture. Western efforts to propagate ideas like liberalism, individualism, human rights, equality, democracy, etc. produce counter-reaction and reaffirmation of indigenous identity. The values most important in West are least important worldwide. WvR is most likely to be civilizational conflict; responses will be a) course of isolation, b) band-waggoning in attempt to join West and accept its values c) balance West by developing economic and military power and cooperating with non-Western states against West (modernize but not Westernize). In future, countries with large numbers of people of different civilization will likely be dismembered. To redefine its identity, torn country will have to a) make its political and economic elite supportive of the move b) have a public willing to acquiesce to redefinition and c) have dominant groups in recipient civilization willing to embrace convert. West promotes nonproliferation and universal norms b/c of threats by Weapon States; non-Western nations assert right to acquire and deploy weapons for security. Nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, and missiles, are viewed as the potential equalizer of superior Western conventional power; this has created Confucian-Islamic military connection

Ikenberry on hegemony

"The Future of the Liberal World Order". Power moving to non-Western rising states. While U.S.' position in global system is changing, liberal international order still working; emerging states like China, Brazil, and India don't contest basic rules and principles of liberal international order, just wish to gain more authority and leadership within it. Today's power transition represents ultimate ascendance of liberal order - as proven b/c China, etc. have become more prosperous by operating inside the existing international order (WTO, G-20) and alternatives have yet to crystallize. Now is a good time for U.S. to update liberal order to ensure it will be beneficial still when U.S. loses power. Current system is developed, integrated, institutionalized, rooted in societies and economies, and capable of assimilating rising powers, and political and cultural diversity. Today's system is not American or Western even if it initially appeared that way. UK in 19th century and U.S. in 20th century advanced liberal order (open trade, national self-determination, belief in progressive global change, universal rights of man). Participants in liberal international order gain trading opportunities, dispute-resolution mechanisms, frameworks for collective action, regulatory agreements, allied security guarantees, and resources in times of crisis - all these make powerful obstacles to opponents. Rising states have interest in open and rule-based system; open gives access to other societies for trade, investment, and knowledge-sharing. Opposing model would presumably be organized around exclusive blocs spheres of influence, mercantilist networks, protectionism, and state-to-state ties - but on global scale, system would not advance interests of any major states. Democracy and rule of law still hallmarks of modernity and global standard for legitimate governance; little evidence that authoritarian states can become advanced societies without moving in a liberal democratic direction. China's one-party rule based on economic growth and employment rather than authoritarian legitimacy. Embracing existing global rules and institutions will reassure neighbors of rising powers as they grow; e.g. as China rises it will redouble participation in existing institutions like ASEAN to reassure other countries. Costs of not following multilateral rules and not forging cooperative ties goes up; global economic system will get more interdependent. Currently, not American decline but other states catching up and growing more open; natural endgame of liberal international order. Future struggle will be between those who want to renew and expand today's system and those who want less cooperative order built on spheres of influence; these factions don't map geographically or WvR. U.S. will remain at center of global system; insecurity of rising powers will make states look to Washington for security and partnership. U.S. will not rule but it can lead.

UN Declaration on Human Rights

Adopted by UN General Assembly in 1948. Defines a common standard of achievement for all peoples and forms the foundation of modern human rights law. Is a soft law, considered to be authoritative standard of human rights. Four pillars are dignity, liberty, equality, and brotherhood. Defines three generations of rights: civil liberties, political, social and economic equality, and communal and national solidarity. Criticized for being based in Western philosophical tradition and not enough attention to communal rights, which are basic foundation of Asian principles. Eleanor Roosevelt was big proponent.

mutually assured destruction (MAD)

Coined during Cold War. Based on theory of deterrence: possession of highly destructive weapons should create a condition of mutual deterrence where neither side would contemplate an attack on the other b/c of the horrendous destruction it would wreak. Because of massive costs of nuclear war, bargaining range widens, since both sides prefer nearly anything to destruction of nuclear war; induces caution and willingness to compromise. For MAD not to destroy, each side must possess survivable second-strike force and leaders must be rational (care about survival).

League of Nations

First attempt at a permanent international security organization formed in the aftermath of WWI, which was supplanted by the UN after WWII and dissolved officially in 1946, though it died in 1939. Idea by Wilson, but U.S. didn't enter. Failed because of institutional defects.

human rights

Human rights are rights that all individuals possess by virtue of being human, regardless of their status as citizens of particular states or members of a group or organization. Rights are universal and equal. First systematic steps towards regulating how gov'ts treat their citizens were undertaken in United Nations Charter (1945). Embodied and clarified in UDHR. Example: right to equal protection under the law, equal pay for equal work, education, prohibition of slavery, etc.

Washington Consensus

Norm of economic liberalism; held broad sway in 1990s and early 2000s. Heavily promoted by U.S. through its policies, IMF, and World Bank. An array of policy recommendations generally advocated by developed-country economists and policy makers starting in the 1980s, including trade liberalization, privatization, openness to foreign investment, and restrictive monetary and fiscal policies. Dubbed so by John Williamson. Group of 77, Non-aligned Movement called for new international economic order (striking back of developing world).

NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organization - an alliance/collective security institution formed in 1949 among the United States, Canada, and most of Western Europe in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The alliance requires the members to consider an attack on any one of them as an attack on all. Has expanded in purpose and membership since end of Cold War

U.S.-China Power Transition

Potential for conflict. Individual Level:individual leader beliefs on Sino-American relationship. Domestic level: national institutions (will China liberalize?) System level: international institutions; globalization; nuclear weapons; anarchy and power transitions. Interaction level: bargaining and power transitions. Previous power transitions: U.S.-Great Britain in late 19th/early 20th century was peaceful and accomodating. Germany-European in early 20th were 2 world wars. U.S.-Soviet transition mid-20th century were tense and risky, but peaceful.

Rosecrance on globalization

Rise of Trading State (book). Argues at some point around 1945, structural conditions of intnt'l system has changed so states have different motivations than in previous decades. States can be fighting/military states or trading states; WWII created interdependence b/c countries got smaller, making trading more fruitful. Dominant incentives in post-war system is to go down trading route. With Industrial Revolution, link between territory and power was broken.Higher interdependence = more peace, lower interdependence = less peace. Type of international economy+available technology+gov't responsibility for economy and welfare+ states learning and adapting internationally?=Costs of military have gone up, costs of trading have gone down during higher interdependence. Factors explaining this: type of international economy, structural changes in post WWII world, high volumes of trade, real multinational corporations, changing technology, lower cost of business across the world, more foreign direct investment across countries, building infrastructure, faster movement of goods and services, advent of nuclear weapons limiting success of military/territorial path, change in what states are supposed to provide - entitlement programs, welfare, employment - raises costs of war, increasingly states witnessing other trading states have success (Soviet Union struggling, Germany/Japan growing. Critiques: high interdependence hasn't always led to peace (WWI).

unilateralism

a single country working alone on a given issue; one-sided action. Usually promoted by large countries. Has been promoted by U.S. for a long time

transaction costs

cost incurred in making an exchange; search and information costs, bargaining costs, policing and enforcement costs

Beckley on China and America

"China's Century? Why America's Edge Will Endure." Study compares U.S. and China across large set of economic, technological, and military indicators over past 20 years. Bulk of evidence supports: globalization and U.S. hegemonic burdens have expanded but U.S. is now wealthier, more innovative, and more militarily powerful compared to China than it was in 1991. China's GDP rising relatively, but GDP correlates poorly with national power. China is rising compared to its lower starting point, but not catching up. Declinists contend history repeats itself as succession of hegemonies and recurrent rise and fall of great powers. U.S. doomed to imperial overstretch; hegemon's dilemma. Believe that open global economy makes poor countries grow faster than rich countries; globalization stimulates growth abroad while undercutting it at home. Alternative perspective says laws of history do not apply to contemporary world politics; U.S. qualitative and quantitative material advantages is unprecedented and U.S. takes disproportionate share of system benefits, China not like past challengers. U.S. has not declined relative to China in last 20 years, measured via wealth, innovation, and conventional military capabilities. Declinism could prompt U.S. to virtuous policies or it could prompt trade conflicts, foreign policy decision-making, and immigration restrictions. Retrenchment could also lead to arms build-ups, closed markets, no leader to protect from global warning. Solution to U.S. abuse of power is better strategy. Status quo is good: dominance, no hegemonic rival. Don't change policy towards China and East Asia with neomercantilist policies.

humanitarian intervention

Deploying military force across borders for the purpose of protecting foreign nationals from man-made violence.Interventions designed to relieve humanitarian crises stemming from civil conflicts or large-scale human rights abuses, including genocide. Involves military intervention. Currently, bulk of what collective security organizations like UN do. Motivated by humanitarian objectives rather than threat to states strategic interests. Example: NATO's intervention in Kosovo. Threat to state sovereignty. Realists objection to intervenor: too idealistic, frequently fails, diverts attention from real national interests. Nationalist objections: at best, violation of sovereignty, at worst a new form of colonialism.

forcible regime promotion

Efforts involving use of force by state A to create, preserve, or alter the political institutions w/in state B; often happen b/c of ideological polarization. All types of regimes do it, states tend to promote their own domestic regime type, tends to happen when international security is scarce. Meant to enhance internal and external security of state. (Democracy promotion can exacerbate the imbalance of power and aggravate the security dilemma. Interventions come in 3 historical clusters (1600-50; 1790-1850; 1917-today); they are carried out by different regime types; states engage in the practice repeatedly; target states tend to be undergoing internal instability; states tend to promote their own institutions; target tend to be of strategic importance. Most intensive periods of promotion coincide with high transnational ideological tension and international insecurity. Forcible promotion is most likely when great powers need to expand their power and find that by imposing institutions likely to keep their ideological colleagues in power, they can brings states under their influence. Regime promotion can cause elites to polarize according to ideology. John Owen examined. Ex: U.S. in Iraq.

levels of analysis

Interactions = the ways in which the choices of two or more actors combine to produce political outcomes. way of analyzing causes of IR outcomes. Individual level: causes where we look at leaders, how we are hard-wired as people. Domestic level: subnational actors with different interests (politicians, bureaucrats, etc.) interact within domestic institutions to determine the country's foreign policy choices. International level: representatives of states with different interests interact with one another, sometimes in the context of international institutions such as the UN or WTO; causes outside individual units. Interaction level: What interaction between different states; transnational actors produces in IR, international-level explanations look at static facts, whereas this is mobile. 1&2 are unit-level theories. 3&4 are system-level theories.

UN Security Council

Made up of 5 permanent states and 10 rotating ones. France, US, China, UK, Russia have veto power and must agree unanimously.

gold standard

Most of the world's major economies had gold or gold-backed currencies that did not change for decades - every major economy except China and Persia had common currency. Stability relied on close ties among Britain, France, and Germany (major leading powers of the day). Provided currency stability and predictability but controversy in U.S. (1896 campaign McKinley v. Bryan - farmers wanted currency devaluation). Ended because diplomatic tension btwn France and German and Great Depression made gov'ts wnat to be able to change economic policy.

suboptimal outcomes

Outcomes in situations like PD in which rational actors end up choosing an outcome that is less than what they could receive. 2,2 is suboptimal b/c a mutually beneficial outcome that would not come at expense of actors (3,3) is possible

globalization

Rosecrance: cluster of technological, economic, and political processes that drastically reduce the barriers to economic exchange across borders. Increasingly easy cross-boundary interactions. Incumbent on states to do so. States increasingly interdependent. Structural phenomenon. No one in charge; not choice but reality. Empowers individuals and subnational groups. Three main economies. 1) Mercantilist Era (1648-1815) States did not interact economically with each other in trade. Only interaction between major systems and colonial power, no interaction between empires. Philosophy that economy is tool to advance political and military power, wealth/economic vitality not end in itself, no incentive to specializes. Industrial Revolution and Pax Britannica (1815-1914) 19th century is newfound dominance by GB who starts interacting with other Euro states. Producing more goods for fraction of time, manpower, prices, looking to acquire more cheap raw materials, lowering of taxes, trade barriers. Increase in economic interdependence among empires, correlated w/ unprecedented era of peace. World Wars and Depression (1914-1945) problems occurred under PB as nontraditional and new powers started to colonize. German states unify become great power, U.S. and Russia emerge and great powers. Sharp drop-off in economic coordination, interdependence, production. isolation causes 2nd world war. Globalization & Rise of Trading State (1945-present? 1989-present?) mercantilist policies abandoned, consensus among great powers that intnt'l system needs to be more interdependent. Greater interdependence and prosperity. Naim: Here to stay, not Americanization, not just for wealthy countries, still great power politics. CRITIQUES: pre-WWI we saw that political conflict can stop and even reverse economic and social progress; globalization creates winners and losers and losers are often very motivated to block further interdependence; some fear globalization creates race to the bottom where national gov'ts are forced to reduce standards on labor and environmental protections in order to remain competitive

NGOs and TANs

Transnational advocacy networks are global civil society groups dedicated to particular political, economic, and social causes. Sets of activists allied in pursuit of common normative objective including human rights, environment, social justice. May include domestic or international NGOs involved in research and advocacy, local social movements, foundations/philanthropic organizations, the media, churches/trade unions/civil organizations. Number has grown dramatically in 50 years. Promote norms to alter interests and change interactions; bring new knowledge to public attention. Example: Planned Parenthood Federation of America. Non-governmental organizations are legally constituted organizations that operate independently from any form of gov't and are normally non-profit. Pursue wider social aims but are not openly political - e.g. Doctors Without Borders. Make up the groups that advocated together for TANs.

Sarotte on ideological waves and demonstration effects

"China's Fear of Contagion." Essay sees that European example had been studied by Chinese and may have contributed to Tianamen Square Massacre crackdown. Chinese leaders willing to take violent action b/c of fear of demonstration effects of democratic changes in Poland and Hungary. Wanted to prevent similar contagion from spreading to their territory (block the import of modular political phenomena from Europe). Trends in Europe challenged fellow Communist regimes. Democratic changes sweeping Eastern Europe exacerbated party leaders' fears of domestic chaos and party factionalism; Poland in particular presented image of party losing to mass protest movement; CCP expected no real countermeasures from Washington. Throughout 1989, Chinese cited European example as reason to move forward aggressively and not worry about U.S. reaction after. East Germany supported China after massacre, probably because of same fear of ideological spread. 1990 Chinese analysis of what went wrong in Europe. U.S. stuck it out with China because preferred to preserve existing relationship instead of breaking relationship with no positive outcome. Heightened danger in one country during international wave of democratization - e.g. during Arab Spring. Demonstration effects are effects on the behavior of individuals caused by observation of the actions of others and their consequences - developments in one place that act as a catalyst in another place.

Wendt on social interactions

"Constructing International Politics." Constructivist: addresses assumptions, objective knowledge, explaining war and peace, policymakers' responsibilities. Shares Mearsheimers assumptions: international politics is archaic, states have offensive capabilities, cannot be certain about others' intentions, wish to survive, and are rational. States are units of analysis, importance of systemic theorizing - focus on structure effecting state behavior, identity, and interest. Differ from neorealists b/c think structure is made of BOTH distribution of material capabilities and social relationships: shared knowledge, material resources, and practices. Material resources only acquire meaning through the structure of shared knowledge in which they are embedded (e.g. British nukes vs. North Korean nukes). Social structure exists only in process (e.g. Cold War) and are real and objective. Ideas always matter; power and interest do not have effects apart from shared knowledge. Constructivists trying to explain world, not better it or change it. History matters: shared knowledge/social structure determines whether states will go to war (status quo with divided states) or stay at peace (status quo where states trust each other); anarchy of states differs from one of enemies, one of self help from one of collective security. Neorealists putting more reliance on social factors to explain their work. (Response to Mearsheimer's apparent argument that constructivists don't believe in real world and expect peace in our time.)

Finnemore on global norms

"Constructing Norms of Humanitarian Intervention." Realist and liberal theories don't provide explanations for humanitarian behavior that occur in states of negligible geostrategic or economic importance (e.g. Somalia). Pattern of intervention cannot be understood apart from the changing normative context in which it occurs. Normative context shapes conceptions of international actors' interests in sytematic and systemic ways. Widely held norms leave broad patterns. As normative understanding about which human beings merit what kind of military protection change, state behavior has changed accordingly. Realist and liberal approaches to international politics do not explain humanitarian intervention or change in practice, whereas constructivism does; humanitarian action shift from Christian-oriented humanitarianism to expansion of definition of humanity (abolition of slavery, colonization), and further expansion after decolonization; contemporary multilateralism implicates planning and execution. Norms are socially constructed and evolve with changes in social interaction. Constructivist approach does not deny that power and interest are important, but asks what interests are and looks at how power will be used. Norms shape interests, interests shape actions, but neither connection is determinative. Justification speaks to normative context - connection of one's actions to acceptable behavior. Humanitarian justifications for state action and state use of force are not new; content and application of justifications has changed over time; norms evolve in part through challenges to consensus; humanitarian intervention norms evolve relative to other normative changes; institutionalization of norms increases power and elaboration of normative claims and is critical pattern of norm evolution. Virtually all instances of humanitarian intervention post-1945 concern action on behalf of non-Christians and/or non-Europeans. Norms of intervention must now be multilateral to be legitimate. Current humanitarian norms allow intervention in cases of humanitarian disaster and abuse but are permissive, not required, and must be multilateral and under UN auspices. (In 19th century, multilateralism was strategic for states to keep an eye on each other; recent interventions organized according to defense of generalized principles of international responsibility). Contemporary multilateralism is political and normative not strategic. Norms are changed through public opinion, the media, and international institutions.

Easterly on development/underdevelopment

"Debt Relief." Debt relief is bad deal for world's poor b/c by transferring scarce resources to corrupt governments who misuse aid, debt forgiveness only aggravates poverty among world's vulnerable populations. Debt relief is longstanding thing in existence in 20th century; 21st century has seen rising visibility and popularity of debt relief. Supporters of debt relief have argued that new democratic governments in poor nations shouldn't be forced to honor debts that were incurred and mismanaged by corrupt, dictatorial predecessors. However, there are few clear-cut political breaks with corrupt past; political factors that make governments corrupt tend to persist, so how do you determine how clean new gov't must be to represent complete departure from corruptions? Making debt forgiveness contingent on illegitimacy of original borrower creates incentives by directing aid to countries that have proven their capacity to mismanage funds (e.g. Ivory Coast). Legitimacy rationale raises reputation concerns in world financial markets b/c few private lenders wish to finance a country where they know successor gov't can repudiate earlier debt as illegitimate. For legitimacy argument to work, countries must show huge, permanent change; but this would require increasingly subjective political judgments on other countries. New lending to African countries has more than covered debt service payments on old loans. Poor people don't owe foreign debt, governments do - poor nations suffer poverty not because of high debt burdens but because of spendthrift governments who redistribute $$ to political elite instead of creating sound economic policies. Bad governmnts are likely to engage in new borrowing to replace forgiven loans, so debt burden won't fall; debt relief only helps if govt' policies move toward economic development. Debt relief doesn't allow gov't to spend more on health and education, most government spending isn't tracked. For debt relief to work, conditions must be set by civil society within poor countries, but civil society is weak in indebted countries. Debt relief takes money away from the international lending community, potentially hurting equally poor but not highly-indebted nations like China and India. Debt relief encourages borrowers to take on an excessive amount of new loans expecting that these will be forgiven; this makes commercial banks not want to invest. Debt relief has not promoted economic reform. Reforms imposed from the outside don't change behavior. Debt forgiveness and imposed reforms are doomed to failure.

Sikkink on NGOs/TANs

"Human rights, Principled Issue-Networks, and Sovereignty in Latin America". Human rights issues are redefining understandings of sovereignty and transnational actors. Human rights policies and practices are contributing to a gradual, significant, and probably irreversible transformation of sovereignty; this shift cannot be explained without taking into account the role of transnational, nonstate actors. "Issue-Network" is group of NGOs, intergovernmental organizations, and private foundations driven by shared values/principled ideas. Compares human rights impact on Argentina and Mexico in 70s-80s; worked in Argentina by early 80s, international pressure didn't work on Mexico till '87. Sovereignty is "no state is subject to any other state and has full, exclusive powers within its jurisdiction"; forceful b/c it represents shared, reinforced understandings and expectations. International human rights activities naturally contradict core of sovereignty. HR sees it as legitimate and necessary to be concerned about treatment of inhabitants of other states. Until post-WWII, no important legal doctrine challenged the supremacy of state's absolute authority. European Convention on Human Rights started modifying sovereignty. As NGOs started examining state behavior and other states started questioning/justifying, modified sovereignty came about. HR pressure not as effective against strong states that can raise significant costs to the states that pressure them (e.g. China, Pakistan, Israel). Stages: State denial, state acceptance of HR practices, reconstituted sovereignty. Combination of material and moral pressure leads to change. Issue-networks carry ideas, gather information, and insert policy ideas. Not replacement of sovereignty, but move to modified sovereignty: the basic rights of individuals are not the exclusive domain of the state, but a legitimate concern of the international community. HR must be understood through norms and ideas, rather than cooperation and coordination.

Ikenberry on hegemony

"Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Persistence of American Postwar Order." No end to U.S. hegemony, no great power fighting, institutionalization and reciprocal relations. Western democracies able to overcome manifestations of anarchy and domination, which is why they persist. Institutional foundations reduce the incentives of Western states to engage in strategic rivalry or balance. "Constitutional characteristics" - structure of institutions and open politics that constrain power and facilitate voice opportunities. U.S. limited power after WWII b/c a) powerful states have incentives to create a legitimate political order and b) institutions allow powerful states to overcome fears of domination and abandonment; secondary states get institutionalized assurances that they will not be exploited. Logic of order was set in place after WWII, addressing the basic problem of how to build durable order among states w/ power asymmetries; U.S. engaged in strategic restraint; strategic restraint made possible because of the potential binding effects of international institutions b/c lock states into ongoing courses of action "reduce the returns to power"; American hegemony built around liberal features which is why accepted by Europe and Japan; Western order has become more stable over time b/c rules and institutions have become more firmly embedded in politics and society ("increasing returns to institutions". Durability built on: constitution-like character of the institutions and practices of the order reduce returns to power and lowers risk of participation; institutions exhibit an increasing returns character making it harder for would-be leaders to replace the order. The West is a relatively stable and expansive political order b/c of strategic restraint (not economic and military power); distribution of power may evolve, but larger Western order remains in place with little prospect of decline. Strategic restraint has three components: bonding (making state power open and predictable); binding; voice opportunities. Examples of strategic restraint: Bretton-Woods System, U.N. U.S.' liberalism is what makes it acceptable. U.S. will remain at center of order while experiencing gains and losses,but mix is distributed widely enough to mitigate the interest that particular states might have in replacing it. System level US success is sheer size of preponderance of power; unit level is its liberal and open domestic system.

R2P

"Responsibility to Protect." Written up in Canada's International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty in 2001. Argues that international community must persecute crimes against humanity has a responsibility to protect at-risk populations through military means if necessary. By 2006, became internationally recognized norm. No legal standard for where/when UN has responsibility to enforce, no legal standard for when UNSC authorization is enough w/o support of states; no legal standard for enforcing what R2P means. International community has acknowledged obligation now to protect threatened populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity through any means necessary. Limits state sovereignty in cases of widespread human rights abuses and state-sponsored violence. Ex: land mines ban.

Wallerstein on development/underdevelopment

"Rise and Future Demise of the World Capitalist System." The only kind of social system currently is a world system: a unit with a single division of labor and multiple cultural systems. World-empires is this with a political system, world-economies is this without political system. World-economies historically unstable and lead to disintegration, conquest, and transformation into world-empire. Capitalism emerged in 16th century Europe - capitalism and a world-economy (single division of labor, multiple polities and cultures) are same phenomenon with different characteristics. Currently, a capitalist world-economy. In capital system, production is constantly expanded as long as further production is profitable; object is to realize maximum profit. Capitalism means labor as a commodity; it has always been affair of world-economy, not nation-states. The three structural positions in a world-economy - core, periphery, and semi-periphery - stabilized by 1640 (NW Europe was core, long story of this genesis. Various local groups converged in NW Europe, leading to development of strong state mechanisms, which causes unequal exchange, enforced by strong states on weak ones. Strengthening of state machineries in core has direct counterpart of decline of state machineries in periphery ad means intervention by outsiders in periphery. Strength of state machinery depends on its structural role in the world-economy at a moment in time. Core and periphery structural differences cannot be understood without semi-periphery. Three mechanisms allow world-systems to retain relative political stability: a) concentration of military strength in hands of dominant forces b) pervasiveness of ideological commitment to the system as a whole (i.e. staffers of system feel their own well-being depends on survival of system and competence of leaders c) division of majority into lower and middle starta. Middle stratum maintains the marginally desirable long-distance luxury trade while upper stratum controls military machinery to collect tribute. Apportioning some to middle stratum, upper buys off the potential leadership of coordinated revolt while denying political rights. World economy would function as economy without semiperiphery, but would be less politically stable b/c would create polarized world-system. Third category means upper stratum faces no unified opposition because middle is exploited and exploiter. Functioning of a capitalist world-economy requires that groups pursue their economic interests within a single world market while seeking to distort this market for their benefit by organizing to exert influence on states, some of which are more powerful but none of which controls world market entirely. Tightness or looseness of system depends on how many powerful states exist.

Kydd and Walter on terrorism

"Strategies of Terrorism." Between 1980 and 2003, half of all suicide terrorist campaigns were followed by substantial concessions by target governments. Terrorist violence is a form of costly signalling: altering the audience's beliefs in matters like terrorist's ability to impose costs and their degree of commitment. Terrorists display publicly b/c it's hard for them to make credible threats. Five principle strategies of signaling: attrition, intimidation, provocation, spoiling, outbidding. Attrition: terrorists seek to persuade the enemy that they are strong enough to impose considerable costs if enemy continues policy. Intimidation: terrorists try to convince the population that they are strong enough to punish disobedience and the government is too weak to stop them. Provocation: an attempt to induce the enemy to respond with indiscriminate violence, which radicalizes the population. Spoiling: an attack in an effort to persuade the enemy that moderates on the terrorists' side are weak and untrustworthy to undermine attempts to reach a peace settlement. Outbidding: using violence to convince the public that the terrorists have greater resolve to fight the enemy than rival groups and are worthy of support. Goals of organization are usually political. "Terrorism": use of violence against civilians by nonstate actors to attain political goals. Five main goals: regime change, territorial change, policy change, social control, status quo maintenance. Regime change: overthrow of gov't and replacement with terrorist gov't or one more to their liking. Territorial change: taking territory away from a state either to establish a new state or join another state. Policy change: broader category of lesser demands like asking US to drop support for Israel. Social control: constraint on behavior of individual rather than state, like KKK to African Americans. Status quo maintenance: support of an existing regime or a territorial arrangement against political groups that seek to change it. Three subjects of uncertainty (power, resolve, and trustworthiness) combine with two targets of persuasion (the enemy gov't and domestic population) to yield family of five signaling strategies. Main two strategies to fighting are: information (b/c makes signalling pointless and ruins provocation) and regime type. Democracies have been sole targets of attritional suicide bombing campaigns where authoritarian regimes tend to face intimidation. Democracies tend to be more sensitive to the costs of terrorist attacks, grant concessions to limit future attacks, be constrained in ability to pursue lengthy attritional campaign, and to be under pressure to do something.

Fukuyama on the end of history

"The End of History?" Triumph of Western liberalism because of no decent alternative. We may be seeing the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government. State at end of history recognizes and protects through a system of law man's universal rights to freedom, and is democratic, existing only with the consent of the governed. The two major alternatives to liberalism - communism and fascism - are now defunct. Religious fundamentalism isn't universally accepted. Nationalism (including racial and ethnic consciousness) is not irreconcilable with liberalism. Many nationalist movements do not have political programs. The end of history means little for international relations; it means the end of worldwide ideological struggles. These will be replaced with economic calculation, technical problems, environmental concerns, and satisfaction of consumer demands; no art or philosophy. CRITIQUES: spread of liberal democracy and capitalism is not nearly universal; emerging antagonistic alternative (authoritarian capitalism); ideological history might be over, but civilizational history is just starting

Owen on polarization and foreign regime promotions

"The Foreign Imposition of Domestic Institutions." States often build and maintain domestic institutions in other states. Interventions come in 3 historical clusters (1600-50; 1790-1850; 1917-today); they are carried out by different regime types; states engage in the practice repeatedly; target states tend to be undergoing internal instability; states tend to promote their own institutions; target tend to be of strategic importance. Most intensive periods of promotion coincide with high transnational ideological tension and international insecurity. Forcible promotion is most likely when great powers need to expand their power and find that by imposing institutions likely to keep their ideological colleagues in power, they can brings states under their influence. Impositions may extend promoting states' influence and alter balance of international power. Most promoting states are great powers, practice repeatedly, almost half border target states, significant number of targets are undergoing civil unrest. Majority of foreign impositions explained by an interaction of ideology and power. Domestic institutional promotion is any effort by state A to create, preserve, or alter the political institutions within state B. Evidence is mounting today that domestic properties, in particular political institutions, affect international relations - e.g. democratic peace and the states with similar domestic regimes tend to be allies. Example: Catholic states attempting to establish Catholicism, Napoleon establishing legal code. Takes more than morality to motivate interventions. U.S./Italy/Soviet Union (1943-49) were examples of promotion and counterpromotion. Democracy promotion can exacerbate the imbalance of power and aggravate the security dilemma.

Gilpin on hegemony

"The Political Economy of International Relations." Kindleberger theory of hegemonic stability says an open and liberal world economy requires the existence of a hegemonic or dominant power. Three prerequisites: hegemony, liberal ideology, and common interests, for emergence and expansion of liberal market system. Only applies to liberal world order; international economy can exist/function without hegemony. Existence of hegemon does not ensure development of liberal international economy; domestic economic structure of hegemon (and other societies) necessary determinants - e.g. Soviet bloc. Congruence of social purpose among dominant nations also necessary. Hegemony based on general belief in legitimacy, prestige, and status: "ideological hegemony." Hegemony occurred twice: Pax Britannica from end of Napoleonic Wars to World War I - time of free trade, liberal ideals, recognized benefit of trade. Second occurrence: U.S. liberal international economic order following WWII (GATT, IMF, etc.) Liberal economic order is a public good, like Most Favored National status or stable international currency. Hegemon has responsibility to guarantee provision of collective goods; liberal economic system cannot be self-sustaining but maintained over long term via dominant economy. Threatened by free rider problems and particular states advancing interests at expense of others. Hegemon creates international regimes/norms/principles, prescribes legitimate behavior (e.g. gold standard and Bretton Woods system). Without hegemon to control and stabilize, liberalism would give way to economic nationalism. Hegemon also has capacity to interrupt commerical intercourse; allows hegemon to exploit position. Open/closed trade, MNCs, and seigniorage examples of power expansion. Ultimate basis of economic strength is flexibility and mobility, which destabilized previous hegemons. Inevitable shift in power from the core to the periphery hurts hegemon; capitalism and market system tend to destroy political foundations on which they depend; hegemonic system ultimately unstable. Hegemon grows tired of free riders and fact that economic partners gaining more from liberalized trade, more efficient economies undercut position. Regimes are more easily maintained than created, costs incurred in bringing down regime; but as hegemon declines, possibility of financial crisis destroying economic regimes goes up. Hegemon's crucial role is not just regime maintenance but crisis management (e.g. Great Depression America).

fixed vs. floating

1) an exchange rate policy under which the government commits itself to keep its currency at or around a specific value in terms of another currency or a commodity, such as gold. 2) An exchange rate policy under which a government permits its currency to be traded on the open market without direct government control or intervention. Fixed e.g. "gold standard" (1870s-1914) where gov'ts promised to exchange currency for gold at an established rate. Currently in lace for most major currencies including U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, and euro. Fixed benefits facilitate international trade, investment, travel, etc. b/c provide currency stability and predictability; however, cannot change rate even if economic conditions could be improved, eliminates ability to have independent monetary policy, can't lower interest rates in a recession, etc - was major problem with euro during eurozone crisis in 2011. Floating rate gives more freedom for gov't to pursue its own monetary policy, but can move around a great deal imposing costs on those engaged in international trade and investment which impedes international economic exchange (or allows apparently unfair policies like China's artificially inflated currency).

United Nations

A collective security organization founded in 1945 after WWII. Closest thing to "World government". Distinct from League in power given to security council. With 193 members, 5 major states - France, US, UK, Russia, China - includes all recognized states. More active and successful after Cold War

IMF

A major economic institution established in 1944 (w/ World Bank at Bretton Woods) to manage international monetary relations and that has gradually reoriented after Bretton Woods collapse to focus on the international financial system, especially debt and currency crises. Membership organizatoin that includes both borrowing and lending countries; all states vote on activities, but votes are proportional to member's financial contribution to IMF resources. U.S. provides nearly 18% or resources, giving it veto power, EU also has veto (32%). Complaints that IMF is tool of rich, powerful members. Can mobilize large amounts of money in relatively short time; countries facing debt today look to IMF to negotiate necessary policies, and be certified in compliance with IMF norms which makes it more attractive to creditors. Increases likelihood that debtor-creditor relations will be iterated, sets financial and macroeconomic standards, provides information, asseses behavior of debtor nations, negotiates agreements directly with individual country's governments. During 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, IMF's agreement with Indonesia shut down banks and cut subsidies. Conflict between people who see IMF as important resolvers of debtor-creditor problems and opponents who see it as a tool of international financiers who put political pressure on weak countries and serve as debt collectors for international banks.

ideological/revolutionary waves

A series of revolutions occurring in various locations in a similar time period, or spread of an ideology through various locations (e.g. Arab Spring). Ideological waves help cause transnational ideological polarization which leads to more forcible foreign regime promotions. Not all revolutions cause ideological waves, but the ones that do have "demonstration effects" - regime change in one country providing increasing plausibility for similar changes in other countries among potential supporters, potential opponents, and neutrals. Past revolutions may inspire current ones, or initial revolution may inspire concurrent affiliate revolutions with similar wave. American/French/Haitian/Batavian Revolution in 18th century another example. Related to demonstration effects. (Effects on the behavior of individuals caused by observation of the actions of others and their consequences - developments in one place that act as a catalyst in another place.) Protestant Reformation and Counter-reformation, French Revolution, 1848 Revolutions, 1917 Bolshevik Revolutions,1989 Revolutions.

Wohlforth on polarity

Accepts that distribution of power determines stability. Doesn't see unipolar as less stable; thinks American unipolarity is less likely to seek conflict, most stable. U.S. has historic power because has power in all three realms (military, economic, geopolitical). Balancing won't help other countries; balancing more likely to happen to weaker powers as they try to combat U.S. Also, states can't trust alliances in the same way that unipolar power can maintain its hegemony. U.S. has been declining in relative military and economic power, but far ahead. U.S. has means and motive to maintain key security institutions in order to ease local security conflicts and limit expensive competition among other major powers. Current unipolarity is durable. Unipolarity does not mean the end of all conflict or that US has its way, but means absence of hegemonic rivalry and balance-of-power politics.

Montreal Protocol

An international treaty in force in 1989, designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production of a number of CFCs and other chemical compounds; specified progressively deeper cuts in emissions and increased range of restricted chemicals and practices. Actually successful. Decided on during Vienna Convention, a framework convention adopted in 1985 to regulate activities, particularly emission of CFCs. Perhaps single most successful international agreement; ratified by 197 states and European Union.

Kyoto Protocol

An international treaty that sets binding obligations on industrialized countries to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (1997). Allows international emissions trading and receipt of credit for financing emissions reductions in developing countries. 191 countries and the EU are parties to the protocol (all but 4 UN members, not United States). US signed but didn't ratify. George Bush wouldn't ratify b/c it places "unreasonable" burden on the U.S. while exempting developing countries especially China from reducing emissions; don't have binding targets, but are committed to reducing emissions. Developing countries are biggest polluters as well as place where biggest steps could be made to prevent environmental degradation. However, developing countries don't have the funds to focus as much on environmental issues.

Waltz on anarchy

Analogizes people in domestic society and nations in international society. Argument says anarchy means no appeal can be made to "higher entity" that can help adjudication between states. Domestic politics is hierarchy vs. international political anarchy. Domesticaly, government has legitimate use of force. Int. Pol has none. Unit specialization (farmers, teachers, etc.) in domestic politics. In IP, no, just "like units" (all states have gov't, military, etc.) Domestic pol. focus on wealth or absolute gains because people feel secure enough to focus on this. IP, focus on security or relative gain, so rational for countries to not cooperate. Hierarchy produces interdependent behavior among pieces of system, whereas anarchy produces "self-help" behavior. Units assume they are on their own in anarchy, because no higher adjudicational system. Countries compete more than cooperate; international organizations aren't very important, can't accomplish much; states might trade, but will seek to produce as much for own population as possible; multilateralism will be infrequent whereas unilateralism will remain dominant strategy in world politics. This limits meaningful cooperation between states. Helen Milner challenges this description of intn'tl system. Says anarchy and hierarchy are ideal categories; in reality all systems have elements of both. E.g. 3 branches of gov't fighting. More powerful states often have more responsibilities and rights in world politics, which is a form of hierarchy. Intnt'l orgs often have some authority over member states, even if not absolute.

hegemonic stability theory

Argument that the existence of a single very powerful nation facilitates the solution of problems of collective action and free riding; the hegemonic power is large and strong enough to be both willing and able to solve problems for the world as a whole. Great Britain after 1860 and U.S. after 1945 institution of liberalization. Less extreme version of theory suggest that small, privileged countries will find it easier to monitor and enforce trade agreements than very large groups of nations or world as a whole.

Prisoner's Dilemma

Assuming unitary rational actors, one actor's strategy depends in part on what he thinks other will do. A problem of defection in which collaboration is impossible because of the incentive for both parties to defect. Assuming rational actors, one actor's strategy depends on what it thinks the other actor will do. 100% likelihood of rational choice to defect. Typically end up with 2,2 b/c of defection but could cooperate and end up with 3,3. Arms races (3,3 is arms reduction), trade negotiations example of failed PD.

terrorist strategies (attrition, intimidation, provocation, spoiling, outbidding)

Attrition: terrorists seek to persuade the enemy that they are strong enough to impose considerable costs if enemy continues policy. Intimidation: terrorists try to convince the population that they are strong enough to punish disobedience and the government is too weak to stop them. Provocation: an attempt to induce the enemy to respond with indiscriminate violence, which radicalizes the population. Spoiling: an attack in an effort to persuade the enemy that moderates on the terrorists' side are weak and untrustworthy to undermine attempts to reach a peace settlement. Outbidding: using violence to convince the public that the terrorists have greater resolve to fight the enemy than rival groups and are worthy of support.

bargaining model of war

Bargaining = an interaction in which actors must choose outcomes that make one better at the expense of another; redistributive; allocates a fixed sum of value between different actors. IF War is costly and Object is divisible, then there should be at least one bargain before war takes place. Creates utility function where there is bargaining space between status quo, what A wants, what B wants. Problem: this triangle describes perfect information. Miscalculating you or your opponents future costs means deals are proposed that no one will agree to. Uncertainty and lack of information on capabilities of opposing nation cause war.

Bretton Woods monetary systems

Bretton Woods monetary system was compromise between fixed and floating exchange rates. Negotiated among WWII allies in 1944 in New Hampshire - lasted until 1970s and was based on U.S. $ tied to gold. Other currencies were fixed to the dollar but were permitted to adjust their exchange rates (adjustable peg). U.S. dollar effectively didn't change; other countries could revalue currency. Exchange rates stable enough to encourage international trade and investment but could vary. Relied on collaboration among leading members, seen as important component of economic and military alliance structure. Cooperation on exchange rates institutionalized under IMF. By 1970s, U.S. gov't unwilling to make the sacrifices necessary to keep the dollar fixed to gold, Nixon thought constrained economic policy. Broke link btwn dollar and gold.

FLS on bureaucracies

Bureaucracy: the collection of organizations - including the military, the diplomatic corps, and intelligence agencies - that carry out most tasks of governance within the state (pg. 131). National Security Bureaucracy: treating military as an actor in itself rather than as tool of state leaders. Bureaucratic politics explanation: where stand depends upon where you sit. Infighting btwn different bureaucracies or branches of armed forces. Interplay of bureaucracies produces foreign policy; agencies advocate poliices based on making their agency more prestigious (e.g. infighting btwn CIA and FBI). Critiques: military commanders/advisors actually no more likely to advocate use of force abroad than civilian leaders. Bureaucracies do not always or often conform to the policy positions we associate with them.

types of norms (3)

Constitutive norms define who is a legitimate or appropriate actor under what circumstances. Ex: democracy. sovereignty, a constitutive norm structuring what it means to be a state; national self-determination. Procedural norms define how decisions involving multiple actors should get made. Ex: multilateralism. Often well-structured in domestic politics: e.g. major bills not being jammed through late at night, powerful states having special rights and responsibilities in multilateral agreements. Regulative norms govern the behavior of actors in their interactions with other actors. Nuclear taboo is a regulative norm. Example, Washington Consensus on economic liberalism.

Axelrod on cooperation under anarchy

Cooperation = an interaction in which two or more actions actors adopt policies that make at least one actor better off relative to the status quo without making others worse off. PD issues. Why is cooperation able to emerge w/o presence of central actor? PD leads individually rational actors to worst-case outcomes b/c no incentive to cooperate. Cooperation emerges b/c players realize they will meet again and put value on future. 1. Are actors willing to play reciprocal strategies? 2. Do actors expect to meet again? 3. Do actors value future interactions? If yes, creates TIT-for-TAT strategy which is rational and advantageous. Cooperate on first round and then copy opponent for all subsequent rounds. Need 2 things: time and value, certainty - reasonable assurance that your opponent will cooperate and not defect. If play multiple times with unspecific iteration, strategy works.

hegemony

Cultural or ideological control by one group or party. In international politics: preponderance of power plus something else, or international leadership, control or domination of key international norms, practices, or institutions by a single powerful state. The predominance of one nation-state over others. Power comes from implied threat of force rather than direct military force. Two periods: Britain during Pax Britannica (1815-1914), U.S. now.

Doyle on democratic peace

Cutlural/economic interdependence between democracies. Cosmopolitanism - idea that democracies are transnational, urbane, e.g. EU identifying more w/ Europe in their own countries. General legalism of democracies. Institutional restraint, democracies elect leaders who are always accountable/responsive to people, and wars require support and consensus (Kaiser only had a few interest groups), but empirical problem that democracies shouldn't go to war so much at all if this were true. Three separate theories of liberalism - Schumpeter who argued for liberal pacifism; Machiavelli classical republicanism and imperialism; Kant theory of internationalism as best explanation for current state of affairs. Liberal states have Kant's "separate peace". Kant's Three Articles plan could actually be the explanation of democratic peace democratic peace by creating pacific union within republics that establish cosmopolitan law. Instiuttional restraint + mutual respect + cosmopolitan law

Cuban Missile Crisis

During Cold War, Fidel Castro took power in Cuba and allied with Soviet Union. American-sponsored invasion in 1961 failed, made Cuban gov't fearful. Soviet gov't led by Nikita Khrushchev concerned it was losing arms race. In 1962, Soviets began installing nuclear missiles in Cuba; inteded to help protect pro-soviet Cuban gov't and redress nuclear balance by putting Soviet missiles within easy striking distance of U.S. (brinksmanship). In 1962, American spy planes saw missiles and saw them as "clear and present danger". Ships encircled island, preparing to prevent Soviet vessels reaching it and plan for American invasion, even though this might lead to nuclear war. U.S. and Soviet gov't bargained for a week. Soviets agreed to dismantle missiles in Cuba if U.S. withdrew its nuclear missiles from Turkey. Example of brinksmanship during Cold War.

demonstration effects

Effects on the behavior of individuals caused by observation of the actions of others and their consequences - developments in one place that act as a catalyst in another place. E.g. Tianamen Square protests after Poland fair elections protests (1989).

exchange rates/monetary systems

Exchange rate is the price at which one currency is exchanged for each other. This can appreciate or depreciate over time, and can be devalued if country wants to lower its interest rates/increase exports. Monetary system is a set of policy tools and institutions through which a government provides money and controls the money supply in an economy. Gold standard, Bretton Woods, and current fixed and floating systems are all types of systems, include exchange rate and relative interest rates. Monetary systems provide predictability in value of money and price of goods within and across borders.

EOI

Export-oriented industrialization. A set of policies, originally pursued starting in late 60s by several East Asian countries, to spur manufacturing for export, often through subsidies and incentives for export production. South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong encouraged manufacturers to produce for foreign, especially American, consumers. Used techniques like low-cost loans and tax breaks to exporters and weak currency to make artificially cheap products and push exports. Meant relying on often volatile international markets, but forced national manufacturers to produce goods that met rigorous technological, quality, and price standards. By 1990s, became dominant strategy throughout developing world, after 1980s debt crisis killed ISI.

foreign direct investment

FDI is investment in a foreign country via the acquisition of a local facility or the establishment of a new facility. Direct investors maintain managerial control of the foreign operation. Example: a Toyota truck factory in Thailand - if factory doesn't do well, Toyota loses money. Different than portfolio investment b/c direct investors have full authority to run investments but take associated risks. Risk of cross-border investment in poorer countries b/c foreign gov't might do things to reduce value of investment. However, investors want to move money to capital-poor developing countries where interest rates are high.

GATT

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trades. An international institution created in 1947 in which member countries committed to reduce barriers to trade and to provide similar trading conditions to all other members.

FLS on interest groups

Groups of individuals with common interests that organize to influence public policy in a manner that benefits their members. Economic, ethnic, or issue. Interest group argument argues that important national resources exert disproportionate influence on policymaking. Measuring interest group influence is very difficult and tendency to look at effects without seeing real connection. Many contrary interest groups to balance each other.

Kagan on ideology

Ideology is once again a powerful force because of great-power autocracies in Russia and China. Putin views NATO as hostile because it represents democracy. Russia and China wary about integrating into international liberal order, because don't know if they can enter the order without succumbing to forces of liberalism. Autocracy is making a comeback. New competitive environment of ideas.

ISI

Import substituting industrialization. A set of policies, pursued by most developing countries from 1930s-1980s, to reduce imports and encourage domestic manufacturing, often through trade barriers, subsidies to manufacturing, and state ownership of basic industries. Initial turn inward may have been caused by 2 world wars and Great Depression, making enforced self-sufficiency desirable. Developing countries wanted economies to move from primary to industry. As foreign markets collapsed, so did influence of internationally-oriented groups. Colonialism also associated with selling primary products; postcolonial societies dominated by urban interest groups. Include trade barriers, government incentives like tax credits and subsidies to industry, government provision of basic industrial services. Ended b/c ISI bias meant developing countries sold little in world markets, bias against agriculture meant flood of poor farmers to city, industries it encouraged were not efficient and meant countries couldn't earn money for imports. Example: Argentina, particularly in 1970s.

Mearsheimer on institutions

Institutions are pointless because they don't matter (liberal realism). Problem with liberal institutionalism is it doesn't do anything meaningful to change system b/c states worry about relative gains rather than absolute gains to protect themselves militarily and economically. Theory of collective security requires states to renounce use of military force to alter status quo and allows for some agressors, but can't tell how many agressors can be handled before systems comes undone. Collective security also requires trust in alliances and no free-riding, as well as lack of complete self-interest. Critical theory aims to transform the international system into a world society where all states behave according to same institutions; imperfectly and contradictorily explains how change in state behavior is supposed to come about. A lot of institutions just represent power politics. E.g. WTO regulates trade thru agreed set of tariffs - realists say that w/ tariffs, weaker countries put at disadvantage. UN = collective security organization but UNSC has most power. IMF/World Bank - loans money to countries having issues paying loans; US has largest stake in it. Realists maintain that institutions are basically reflections of distribution of power in the world and based on self-interested calculations of great powers. Institutionalists argue that institutions can discourage states from calculating self-interest and are independent variables with the capability of moving states away from war. Mearsheimer believes that institutions have minimal influence on state behavior and hold little promise for promoting stability in the post-Cold War world. Each of three theories that make case of institutions are flawed in their causal logic and have little support in historical record. World is obsessed with idea of institutionalism because it fits with core elements of political ideology so more attractive, doesn't treat war as inevitable, distinguishes between "good" and "bad" states. Institutionalism does not accurately describe the world.

offense-defense theory

International conflict and war more likely to occur when offensive military operations/technology have the advantage over defensive operations/technology, whereas cooperation and peace are more likely when defense dominates. Hypothesis that nuclear weapons tilt balance towards defense. Proposed by Van Evera in "Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict". Attempts to discern which factors increase likeihood of war. 1) War will be more common in periods when conquest is easy or believed to be easy. 2) States that have or believe they have large offensive opportunities or defensive vulnerabilities will initiate and fight more war 3) actual examples of true imbalances are rare and explain only a moderate amount of history, but false perceptions of these factors are common and explain a great deal of history. WWI is good example: European nations under illusion that conquest was easy, resulting in drawn out, bloody conflict.

Waite on leader personality

Kaiser and Fuhrer: do personalities matter? Individual level interaction. Both had abnormal minds, personalities instrumental in learning why Germany went to war. Conclusion: more important to look at traits of individual leaders than to assume rationality. Kaiser had deep insecurities he was trying to overcome; Hitler was angry and full of hate. Personalities mix with external circumstances to cause war; external factors important, although in WWII, Hitler created external circumstances. Leader w/ abnormal personalities + external circumstances favoring war = WAR. ECnotFW+Leader w/ normal personality = PEACE. Psychology can help reach a deeper understanding of the past, but is a supplement to historical analysis not a substitute for it.

LDCs

Less developed countries. Countries at a relatively low level of economic development. Three approaches to explain why goal of development is difficult: geographical realities, domestic factors, domestic institution. Geography: tropical regions have illness, landlocked countries, regions with disease, areas far from major markets are disadvantaged. Domestic factors are infrastructure, security of property, stable/reliable government investing in education, etc., technical expertise, actors that go against broad-based economic development like powerful corporations burdening taxpayers (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa where gov'ts systematically drained resources from countryside creating impoverished rural masses. Domestic institutions theory is that resource endowments of societies give rise to institutions that affect development. E.g. "resource curse" in which initial wealth means gov't exploits resource and does not encourage activities to make economy more productive. E.g. Zambia's copper wealth vs. South Korea's productive institutions. Claim to be discriminated against in international institutions b/c of power disparity with rich countries; many scholars believe political factors exacerbate problems of development. Economy may also be prejudiced b/c LDCs primarily sold primary products whose prices decline in long run.

Mearsheimer and Walt on interest groups

No lobby has managed to skew foreign policy as much as the Israel Lobby, particularly AIPAC. Evidenced through diplomatic support, appropriations at beginning of each fiscal year to subsidize defense even though Israel is not strategic asset or moral argument. US terrorism based on relationship with Israel. Israel is not loyal ally, ignoring US requests and reneging on promises. Aspects of Israeli democracies at odds with core American values. Lobby is not unified movement with central leadership - e.g. American-Israel Public Affairs Committee, Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations. No different in basic operations from other lobbies. Pursues two strategies - wielding significant influence by pressuring Congress and executive, striving to ensure that public disciourse portrays Israel in a positive light. In Congress, Israel is virtually immune from criticism. Pro-Israel congressional staffers. No serious opponents in lobbying world. Campaign contributions. Could lead to attacks on other Middle Eastern countries. Crimes against Palestinians. Need more open debate about U.S. interests to expose limits of strategic and moral case for one-sided U.S. support.

NPT

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (1968). Follow up on Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963) to ban nuke testing in atmosphere, outerspace, underwater. Institutional mechanims to foster cooperation among states to prevent proliferation. Provides for nuclear and non-nuclear weapons states. Former was 5 states that had acquired nukes: U.S., Soviet Union, Great Britain, France, China; all other states must be non-nuclear. Nuclear states promise not to transfer their weapons to non-nuclear states and make good-faith efforts to reduce, eventually eliminate their nuclear stockpiles, and assist non-nuclear states in development of peaceful civilian nuclear energy programs. Non-nuclear states promise not to try to develop nuclear weapons and submit their nuclear energy programs to inspections by an international body - International Atomic Energy Agency. NPT secures states' monopoly on nukes and assists development of nuclear energy in non-nuclear states. Strength lies in its setting out standards of acceptable behavior and providing mechanisms for monitoring compliance; weakness is lack of enforcement mechanisms, leaving it up to the state. Example: non-compliance by Iran and North Korea (who left treaty). 189 signatories, extended indefinitely, defused potential crisis of breakup of Soviet Union. Danger that proliferators will use civilian nuclear energy programs to make weapons (Iran); annoyance by non-nuclear states w/ double-standard of five countries allowed to have nukes (India/Pakistan); Article 10 permitting states to withdraw w/ six months notice w/ no penalties (North Korea).

collective action problems

Obstacles to cooperation that occur when actors have incentives to collaborate but each acts in anticipation that others will pay the costs of cooperation. Similar to tragedy of the commons. Pollution is major example of collective action problem. Despite shared interest, incentives to free ride win out, and we reach a suboptimal outcome; no incentive to work together because our choices produce externalities. Larger groups are more affected by externalities so more likely to free ride. Best ways to solve is to either have small groups, increase the likelihood of repeated interaction, joint products (bundling of private goods), find privileged groups who receive benefits from public good large enough to bear cost of providing good, and link issues so reciprocal punishment or reward. Examples: Trade (Public good=freer trade, Defection=artificial barriers to trade, institution=WTO); Finance (PG=successful/stable investments and loans, defection=default, nationalizing; RI=IMF/World Bank); Currency (PG=Stable exchange rates, Defection=unilateral currency manipulation, RI=IMF)

World Bank

Officially "International Bank for Reconstruction and Development." An international institution that provides loans at below-market interest rates to developing countries, typically to enable them to carry out development projects, build infrastructure. Established at Bretton Woods after WWII. Typically gets money by borrowing at low rates on major financial markets; also receives money from developed member states. Primarily oriented towards long-term investments in things like roads, dams, and power plants, all of which are considered essential for broader economic growth and development. Helps write off debt (debt forgiveness) of the most heavily indebted poor countries (see: Debt Relief article - Ivory Coast).

Mandelbaum on hegemony

Other countries complain about US hegemony but they won't do anything about it because it plays a positive global role. US doe snot control or aspire to control the politics and economies of other societies. Non-Americans may not enjoy formal representation in U.S. political system but can make voice heard. U.S. military power keeps order in Europe and East Asia, assumes responsibility for coping with nuclear weapons issues regarding rogue states and terrorist organizations (Cooperative Threat Reduction program). Navy patrols shipping lanes to keep international trade safe, assures adequate supply of oil through diplomacy. U.S. supplies most frequently used currency. IMF carries out duties that central banks perform within countries and is lender and consumer of last resort. Anti-Americanism has domestic political uses and U.S. is convenient scapegoat, but most foreign policy officials are in favor of continuing it, they just cannot admit it. Countries also have capacity to be free-riders. U.S. as world government will depend on willingness of American public to sustain costs involved; other countries will not pay for America's global role, will continue to criticize it, and will miss it when it is gone.

Waltz on polarity

Poles = # of great powers. Great power in a state can defeat any other state in a system except a great power and cannot be defeated by any other great power alone. Polarity is how different degree of powers affect system differently. The distribution of power that best produces a balance of power will be the most stable and the most peaceful. Unipolar, bipolar, multipolar systems. States want to guarantee their security; they are the only real actors in the system. Defining organizing feature of states is anarchy - absence of central governing system. States have incentive to form alliances or balance to try and maintain balance of power. By "power" Waltz means economic and military capabilities. Denies importance of "soft power" - inherent attractiveness of cultural system. States are security seekers (motivated by power) fundamentally defensive, power is a means not an end, not a theory of states but of a system. What prevents states or at least great powers from seeking unilateral advantages over each other, constantly going to war? The distribution of power (# of great powers) that best produces a balance of power will be the most stable and most peaceful. 1648-1945 = multipolar. 1945-1989 = bipolar. 1989-??? = unipolar. In multipolar system, balancing is harder so conflict is more likely; miscalculation, inattention, external balancing. States tend to miscalculate balance of power b/c they are pooling resources and estimating against others, tendency for buck-passing. In bipolar system, balancing easier, conflict less likely; more certainty, known rival, internal balancing. Cold War was stability for over 40 years, major wars all took place during multipolar times. Waltz would think unipolarity is unbalanced and unstable; relatively quickly lead to conflict, attempts to balance, return to multi- or bipolar system of power. War is based on balance of power security concerns and unit-level interactions.

Jervis on human nature

Political Implications of Loss Aversion. Human nature is looking at what humans think overall/deviate from rationality, not just leaders. Prospect Theory. People tend to e risk-averse for gains but risk-acceptant for losses. Losses loom larger than corresponding gains. Status quo is crucial. Not entirely psychological - domestic and international politics also explain. Leader accepting limited defeat likely to be punished at polls. Small loss may cost country more than large one in reputation and credibility. But this may be that the public also operates according to prospect theory. May also account for belief in domino affect (e.g. during Cold War). Prospect theory leads us to expect people to persevere in losing ventures much longer than standard rationality would lead one to expect. Wars triggered by fear of loss more than gain opportunity. We renormalize to gains much more easily than for losses. Actors more likely to pay to reduce uncertainty to close to zero than around the middle range

tragedy of the commons

Process through which the commons is overexploited; can also be thought of as the cumulative effects of the prisoner's dilemma. Problem with collective action problems is that they produce externalities: the actor does not bear all of the consequences of his own actions. A finite world can support only a finite population. Need for energy (food) is too great. Optimum population is less than the maximum. Man must determine a system of weighting possible goods. Must bring population growth to zero. Each rational person seeks to maximize gain from the commons and experiences little negative feedback from his action. When everyone seeks to maximize without limit in a limited world, freedom brings ruin. Examples include National Parks, pollution - costs of wastes discharged is less than cost of purifying wastes before releasing them. Morality of an act is a function of the state of the system at the time it is performed. Solutions can be privatization of the commons, coercive laws or taxing devices (coercion) that make it more expensive to pollute. Must stop having freedom to breed because overbreeding no longer has its own punishment. Appeals to conscience will be useless in long run because people producing more children will eventually take over; besides conscience creates a double-bind that encourages people not to follow it. We cannot do nothing, because even inaction is a form of action producing evils; status quo is no more perfect than proposed reforms. The commons is only justifiable under conditions of low population density - the commons is evil even when puprorting pleasure - every new enclosure of the commons involves infringement on someone's personal liberty, but infringements made in the past are accepted - mutual coercion allows for freedom without universal ruin - we must abandon the commons in breeding.

Keohane on institutions

States accept and embrace institutions not because doing so is inherently right or just but because institutions can advance states' rational self-interests. world politics in the 1990s characterized by international institutions: the rules that govern elements of world politics and the organizations that help implement those rules. Growing importance of international institutions for maintaining world order, especially in globalizing world. Institutions started becoming recognizably important in 1970s because international regimes needed formal rules and integrated management. Institutions are devices to help states accomplish their objectives and breaks with legalism and idealism. Assuming relative state power and competing interests, institutions allow for cooperation by reducing costs of making and enforcing agreements (transaction costs), increase state interactions (shadow of the future), increase states' information, allow monitoring arbitration of disputes. Reinforce practices of reciprocity, provide greater transparency and greater certainty by dealing with issues over several years, and monitoring compliance of government with their commitments. Institutional maneuvers take place within larger ideological contexts and create informational structures and help shape actors' expectations. Institutions whose members share social values and have similar political systems (NATO, EU) likely to be stronger than ASEAN or OSCE. Institutions often have undemocratic structure, so it will be challenge to combine global governance with effective democratic accountability.

Waltz on globalization

States still rule and probably always will (anti-globalization, Rosecrance). A diversity of state type and state practice can lead to success (e.g. China internet blocks). Globalization assumes dissolution and similarity across states, but there are spectrum of approaches across states. Dissolution has been expected since 1970s and has not occurred. Globalization requires interdependence, but world is less interdependent today than people assume; even if politics is global, economies are local. R says only those who trade will do best, but losers will always imitate winners - in the past, Soviet model seemed best economically and now China model is best. If anything, globalization exacerbated power differentials and inequalities. Great powers more powerful than ever, silly to get distracted from polarity. It's probably not the economic interests keeping states from going to war but the threat of nuclear weapons (e.g. Soviet Union). The "herd" has less power than believed, because some states are so important economically they will not be allowed to fail. Main difference in IP now and earlier is growing inequality among states, not interdependence. Distribution of capabilities across states lopsided and enhance political role of one country (USA).

ideological polarization

The progressive segregation of a population into two or more sets, each of which cooperates internally and excludes external. Examples: Catholic vs. Protestant states in 16th/17th century, autocratic vs. republican states in 19th century, liberal democratic states vs. communist states in 20th century, secular states vs. religious states now. Effects: leaders/governments in other states fear for internal security from revolution as much as external security (China!), interstate alliances tend to form along ideological lines; states more likely to engage in forcible foreign regime promotions. The divergence of political attitudes to ideological extremes, either in general public or subset (like party elites)

terrorism

The use or threatened use of violence against noncombatant targets (by individuals or nonstate groups) in order to achieve political goals. Can also be defined as a threat of violence. An attempt to win concessions by attacking civilians or military units not engaged in combat; aim to sow fear among target population so it will concede to demands. Adopt terrorist methods because: exclusion from institutional forms of redress or negotiation; their demands are beyond what moderates accept; social solidarity. Organized, strategic, politically motivated and responsive. Two main goals: coerce opponent, maintain/increase support (tension between goals). Most terrorism is international. Example: Irish Republican Army, Tamil Tigers, Boston bombers. Terrorists are rational. Terrorist groups tend to be weak relative to targets (states) and to the extensive demands they make.

power transition theory

Theory by A.F.K. Organski in "World Politics." Describes international politics as a hierarchy with four degrees of power between states. Objective is to investigate cyclic condition of wars and how transition of power affects occurrence of wars. Says war is most likely, of longest duration, and of greatest magnitude when a challenger to dominant power enters approximate parity with the dominant state and is dissatisfied with existing system. Alliances most stable when parties satisfied with system structure. When balance of power is unstable (one or two dominant nations) likelihood of war is greater). Separates into "dominant state" with largest proportion of power resources (superpower, e.g. U.S.), great powers (rivals to superpower), middle powers (semi-periphery, unable to challenge), small powers (periphery, insignificant influence). Great trend is nation achieving hegemonic power and then being challenged by a great power. E.g. Britain's hegemony broken by Napoleonic Wars.

liberal international order

Three prerequisites: hegemony, liberal ideology, and common interests, for emergence and expansion of liberal market system. Liberal economic order is a public good, like Most Favored National status or stable international currency. Hegemon has responsibility to guarantee provision of collective goods; liberal economic system cannot be self-sustaining but maintained over long term via dominant economy. Threatened by free rider problems and particular states advancing interests at expense of others. Hegemon creates international regimes/norms/principles, prescribes legitimate behavior (e.g. gold standard and Bretton Woods system). Without hegemon to control and stabilize, liberalism would give way to economic nationalism. Current world order.

Hardin on global commons

Tragedy of the Commons: tragedy in that it is inevitable. A finite world can support only a finite population. Need for energy (food) is too great. Optimum population is less than the maximum. Man must determine a system of weighting possible goods. Must bring population growth to zero. Each rational person seeks to maximize gain from the commons and experiences little negative feedback from his action. When everyone seeks to maximize without limit in a limited world, freedom brings ruin. Examples include National Parks, pollution - costs of wastes discharged is less than cost of purifying wastes before releasing them. Morality of an act is a function of the state of the system at the time it is performed. Solutions can be privatization of the commons, coercive laws or taxing devices (coercion) that make it more expensive to pollute. Must stop having freedom to breed because overbreeding no longer has its own punishment. Appeals to conscience will be useless in long run because people producing more children will eventually take over; besides conscience creates a double-bind that encourages people not to follow it. We cannot do nothing, because even inaction is a form of action producing evils; status quo is no more perfect than proposed reforms. The commons is only justifiable under conditions of low population density - the commons is evil even when puprorting pleasure - every new enclosure of the commons involves infringement on someone's personal liberty, but infringements made in the past are accepted - mutual coercion allows for freedom without universal ruin - we must abandon the commons in breeding.

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992). An environmental treaty with the goal of protecting dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference of the climate system. Provides an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts on climate change. Sets no binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions and contains no enforcement mechanisms; provides framework for negotiating specific international treaties called protocols. Has 195 members (all UN members except South Sudan) and EU.

dependency theory

Wallerstein's theory that resources flow from a periphery of poor and underdeveloped states to a core of wealthy states, enriching the latter at the expense of the former. Contention that this is enriched by the way poor states are integrated into world system. Sees underdeveloped countries not as primitive versions of developed countries, but uniquely in situation of being weaker members in world economy. Wealthy nations perpetuate state of dependence through economics, media control, politics, etc. and counter attempts for dependent nations to move up by economic sanctions and/or military force. Propagated by Raul Prebisch and was major reason that Argentina and other countries moved to ISI. Also a reason a lot of developing countries don't like power of IMF.

self-help behavior

Waltz's theory of the way in which states in an anarchic system will behave. Units assume they are on their own in anarchy, because no higher adjudicational system. Countries compete more than cooperate; international organizations aren't very important, can't accomplish much; states might trade, but will seek to produce as much for own population as possible; multilateralism will be infrequent whereas unilateralism will remain dominant strategy in world politics. This limits meaningful cooperation between states. Situation of high risk but in which organizational costs are low. Hierarchic order has high costs.

FLS on bargaining and war

Wars occur for three reasons (three classes of war). 1) War is outcome of failed bargaining. 2) domestic/political dynamics, externalization of internal pressure. 3) irrationality, misperception in how mind works

WTO

World Trade Organization. An institution created in 1995 to succeed GATT and to govern international trade relations. Encourages and polices the multilateral reduction of barriers to trade and oversees the resolution of trade disputes.

extremism

a political theory favoring immoderate, uncompromising policies. Extremists have interests not widely shared by others or are more willing to pay costs for their interests is not widely shared, and thus are politically weak relative to the demands they make. e.g. Al Qaeda.

international institutions

a shared set of rules, known and shared by the community, that structure political interactions in particular ways; solve coordination problems, information problems, lower transaction costs. Problems with institutions: tend to be most effective in the least controversial situations. Often cannot act without agreement among their most powerful members. Even in their legitimate missions, often underfunded by members. Suffer from democracy deficits.

balance of power

a situation in which the military capabilities of two states or groups of states are roughly equal

norm life cycle

a three-stage model of how norms diffuse within a population and achieve a "taken for granted" status. Posited by Martha Finnemore and Kathryn Sikkink. Convince, cascade, internalize. First, norms entrepreneurs actively work to convince a critical mass of other individuals in other states to embrace their beliefs (e.g. Henry Dumont on medical personnel being considered noncombatants on battlefield); entrepreneurs find ways to frame issues to make them comprehensible and tie them t existing norms. Second, a norms cascade occurs as number of adherents passes a tipping point beyond which the idea gains sufficient support to become a nearly universal standard of behavior to which others can be held accountable (e.g. national election monitoring). Third, norms are internalized or become so widely accepted that they take on a taken-for-granted quality that makes conforming automatic (e.g. slavery, violence against political prisoners).

mercantilism

an economic doctrine based on a belief that military power and economic influence were complements; applied especially to colonial empires in the sixteenth through eighteenth centuries. Mercantilist policies favored the mother country over its colonies and over its competitors.

externalities

costs or benefits for stakeholders other than the actor undertaking an action. When an externality exists, the decision maker does not bear all the costs or reap all the gains from his or her action. E.g. firm dumping in the river or school cleaning up a beach. Since individuals are typically only motivated to work for private costs and benefits, Pareto suboptimal outcomes ensue. Example of externality is "public good" under which many environmental issues fall. Larger groups are more affected by externalities so more likely to free ride.

norm entrepreneurs

individuals and groups who seek to advance principled standards of behavior for states and other actors. leaders, states, international institutions. Norms entrepreneurs typically form TANs (loose affiliation fo individuals and NGOs working together across borders in pursuit of a common normative objective. Ablet to create reality because of authority (Amnesty International) and expertise (UN).

uncertainty

lack of belief that the other side will follow through on commitment or will not cooperate. incomplete information about the other state's capabilities, intentions, or resolve. Difficulties in gaining credible information about the other state's capabilities and resolve and in demonstrating one's own credibility. Leads to two kinds of bargaining mistakes: yielding too little and demanding too much.

multilateralism

multiple countries working in concert on a given issue; international governance of the many; coordination of national policies in groups of three or more. UN, WTO mutlilateral in nature; typical proponents are middle powers like Canada, Australia.

FLS on democratic peace

phenomenon where mature democracies do not engage in wars with one another. only one in recent memory was war of 1812, but may not constitute violation. democracies tend to go to war just as much as non-democracies, just only against non-democracies. Share norms of compromise since all democracy is fundamentally compromise. In Sum: more transparent, higher audience costs, more easily signal credibility. Mutual respect - democracies tend to like each other; harder to pitch a war policy against democracies. More transparent, so less of an information problem; will know when other democracy planning to go to war. Critiques: Democracies have had significant crises, measuring "democracy" and war" is hard, too new, emerging democracies." democracies must be mature or actually more prone to go to war. Debate over what can be considered war, peace, and democracy. Current definition of war is any violent conflict w/ a thousand battle deaths or more. (War of 1812 wasn't "mass democracy) In modern time, democracies wouldn't fight b/c of Cold War - security causing peace not democracy. When democracies deviated from norms, GB and US removed leaders w/ coups. Measurement problems and omitted variable bias. Can find pattern but not explain it properly. Alternative: democracies have so far simply happen to have common interests, nuclear peace? Problem cases: India and Pakistan Kargil War 1999, Israel and Egypt after Arab Spring

realism vs. liberalism vs. constructivism

realism: belief that international affairs is a struggle for power among self-interested states. liberalism: foresee a slow but inexorable journey away from anarchic world as trade and finance forge ties between nations and democratic norms spread. Rule of law and transparency make it easier to sustain international cooperation especially when these practices are enshrined in multilateral institutions. Idealism/constructivism: foreign policy is and should be guided by ethical and legal standards. No "national interest" exists. International change results from work of intellectual entrepeneurs - ideas and words. Tend to look at transnational level and networks. Constructivists claim that structure is not defined and there's a strong social aspect; actors are states; reaction to the failure of realists to explain Cold War. Social structure comes from interaction and practice; explains who is friend or foe, defines what is right or wrong. Agents: international institutions and organizations, norms entrepreneurs.

norms

standards of behavior for actors with a given identity; define what actions are "right" or appropriate under particular circumstances. Norms can be codified into both hard and soft laws (articulations of a norm). Exist only by collective assent; most easily observed when violated. Need not be consistent with one another or secondary rules (e.g. sovereignty vs. R2P). Actors have opportunities to interpret rules selectively for their own advantage. Norms constrain states by redefining interests and changing interactions. Law lags behind norms. Internationally, major changes are in what great powers treat as human and how great powers can legitimately intervene.

state sovereignty

state - a central authority with the ability to make and enforce laws, rules, and decisions within a specified territory. sovereignty - the expectation that states have legal and political supremacy - or ultimate authority - within their territorial boundaries. recognized in 1648 with the Peace of Westphalia which also recognized nonintervention; the settlement that ended the 30 years war.

clash of civilizations

tHuntington's idea that The fundamental source of conflict in the new world will be cultural, not ideological or economic. Nation-states will remain the most powerful actors, but principal conflicts will be between nations and groups of different civilization. Differences between civilizations are real and important, civilization-consciousness is increasing, conflict between civilizations will supplant other forms of conflict, international relations will be de-Westernized, successful international institutions are more likley to develop w/in civilizations, conflicts will be more frequent between civilizations and could lead to global war, axis of world politics will be WvR, some non-Western elites will try to join West but face obstacles, central focus of conflict will be West v. Islamic-Confuscian states. Among nation-states from 1648-WWI, then ideological through Cold War - primarily conflicts w/in Western civilization. Now non-westerners are movers and shapers; divisions between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Worlds no longer relevant. Group countries by "civilizations" or cultural entities. Individuals have varying levels of identity (civilization being the broadest level), and can redefine their identities. Current civilizations are Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American, and possibly African. Differences among civilizations are basic (history, language, religion, culture, tradition); differences are the product of centuries and are fundamental; world is becoming smaller and increasing interactions btwn civilizations; the processes of economic modernization and social change are separating people from local identities and weakening the nation-state as a source of identity, leading to religion to fill gap; growth of civilization-consciousness is enhanced by role of West at peak of its power and a return-to-roots phenomenon outside of West; cultural characteristics and differences less mutable and less easily compromised than political and economic ones; economic regionalism is increasing. Cultural commonalities increasingly overcome ideological differences for economics; culture and religion forming basis of economic cooperation (e.g. Economic Cooperation Organization in non-Arab, non-Muslim countries). "Us" vs. "Them" becoming bigger relationship. Ideology losing power, so governments/groups increasingly attempting to mobilize support on basis of common religion and civilization identity. Micro-leve: groups fighting over control of territory; macro-level: civilizations competing for relative military and economic power. Kin-country syndrome becoming principal basis for cooperation and coalitions (e.g. Gulf War). West (US, Britain, and France) vs. Rest creates clashes about military, economic, and institutional power and differences in culture. Western efforts to propagate ideas like liberalism, individualism, human rights, equality, democracy, etc. produce counter-reaction and reaffirmation of indigenous identity. The values most important in West are least important worldwide. WvR is most likely to be civilizational conflict; responses will be a) course of isolation, b) band-waggoning in attempt to join West and accept its values c) balance West by developing economic and military power and cooperating with non-Western states against West (modernize but not Westernize). In future, countries with large numbers of people of different civilization will likely be dismembered. To redefine its identity, torn country will have to a) make its political and economic elite supportive of the move b) have a public willing to acquiesce to redefinition and c) have dominant groups in recipient civilization willing to embrace convert. West promotes nonproliferation and universal norms b/c of threats by Weapon States; non-Western nations assert right to acquire and deploy weapons for security. Nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, and missiles, are viewed as the potential equalizer of superior Western conventional power; this has created Confucian-Islamic military connection

power

the ability of Actor A to get Actor B to do something B would otherwise not do; the ability to get the other side to make concessions and avoid having to make concessions oneself

comparative advantage

the ability of a country or firm to produce a particular good or service more efficiently than other goods or services, such that its resources are most efficiently employed in this activity. The comparison is to the efficiency of other economic activities the actor might undertake, not to the efficiency of other countries or firms

austerity

the application of policies to reduce consumption, typically by cutting government spending, raising taxes, and restricting wages. Usually measures taken by debtor nations in crisis to prevent default. The case in Italy after Recession - tends to hurt civilians, causes riots and protests.

collective security

the idea when one state attacks or threatens to attack another, and these events constitute an act of aggression, then all members of one organization are called on to act against the state committing the offending action. Action can range from economic sanctions to full-scale military intervention. Collective security organizations are broad-based institutions that promote peace and security among their members like the League of Nations and UN - organizatoins that promote peace and security among their members by declaring that an attack against one member is a threat to the entire community

protectionism

the imposition of barriers to restrict imports. Commonly used protectionist devices include tariffs, quantitative restrictions (quotas) and other nontariff barriers. Seek to make foreign goods less competitive; traditional rationale is to protect domestic industries

democratic peace

the observation that there are few, if any, clear cases of war between mature and democratic states

commitment problems

the problem that arises when a state cannot make a promise in a credible manner. Particularly common in the absence of any enforcement mechanism, such as a court, that can hold people to their commitments. when states have difficulties making credible promises not to use force to revise the settlement at a later date because: 1) goods themselves are a source of future power (North Korea/Iran w/ nuclear weapons) 2) the future balance of capabilities is unpredictable or unfavorable; preventive war motivation (Germany before WWI concerned with Russia's growing power) 3) there is military/technological advantage in striking first, preemptive war motivation (Germany and Russia; Germany's Schlieffen Plan before WWI)

bargaining range

the set of deals that both parties in a bargaining interaction prefer to the reversion outcome. When the reversion outcome is war, the bargaining range is the set of deals that both sides prefer to war. Crossover between deals state A would accept and deals state B would accept. Where a bargaining range exists, rational states should always prefer negotiated settlement within that range to war

rally effect

the tendency for people to become more supportive of their country's government in response to dramatic international events, such as crises or wars (e.g. Bush's 90% approval rating after 9/11)

sovereign state system

totality of a world populated by sovereign states that recognize for the most part the sovereignty of other states. 2 important elements characterize this system: sovereign states are the legitimate units recognized as "actors" since 1648. SSS is one of international anarchy, with absence of central authority or world government.

free trade

trade without tariffs, quotas, or other nontariff barriers. Considered by economists to be the best form of trade. Mutually beneficial. Associated with Adam Smith (1776) Wealth of Nations. If a foreign country can supply cheaper commodity, better to buy it and sell your own good. Because some countires are better at making things, trade them. Drive down prices, benefit overall, speed up production. Heckscher-Olin Theory: countries will export goods that make use of the factors of production. Factors mean basic categories of resources: land (agricultural goods), labor (size/demographics of workforce = labor-intensive manufactured goods, capital (investment/wealth finances or human, skilled labor requiring education and training = high-tech goods). Countries have engaged in free trade more over history. Limits happen b/c governments want to protect cetain groups, actors, and industries. Dispersed pleasure, concentrated pain. If working in country w/o comparative advantage, tend to see layoffs, wage cuts. Stolper-Samuelson Theory: Protectionist policies benefit the scarce factors of production the most. Industries where countries are less competitive that see most resistance to free trade. Fear of other states defecting raising protectionist barriers. Foreign goods sold cheaper while your exports have tariffs - sucker's payoff.

FLS on diversionary war

war started by a state in order to produce a rally round the flag effect at home. Anecdotal evidences that this tactic has been used, but little evidence of systematic diversionary war; Wag the Dog, Clinton's sex scandal diverted by Clinton's strikes against plant in Sudan and terrorist site in Afghanistan. Recent studies have found that conflict is more likely to be initiated by politically secure leaders; going tow ar is always a risky proposition.

diversionary war

war started by a state in order to produce a rally round the flag effect at home. Anecdotal evidences that this tactic has been used, but little evidence of systematic diversionary war; Wag the Dog, Clinton's sex scandal diverted by Clinton's strikes against plant in Sudan and terrorist site in Afghanistan. Recent studies have found that conflict is more likely to be initiated by politically secure leaders; going tow ar is always a risky proposition.