L1, L2, L3, L4

1- Of course, Malthus was aware that starvation rarely operates directly to kill people, since something else usually intervenes to kill them before they actually die of starvation. This "something else" represents what Malthus calls 2- There are also preventive checks— 3- However, to Malthus the only acceptable means of preventing a birth was to exercise 4- As a scientific theory, the Malthusian perspective leaves much to be desired, since he was wrong about

1 - positive checks, primarily those measures "whether of a moral or physical nature, which tend prematurely to weaken and destroy the human frame" - Today we would call these the causes of death. 2- limits to birth. - In theory, the preventive checks would include all possible means of birth control, including abstinence, contraception, and abortion 3- moral restraint; that is, to postpone marriage, remaining chaste in the meantime, until a man feels "secure that, should he have a large family, his utmost exertions can save them from rags and squalid poverty, and their consequent degradation in the community" 4- how quickly the food supply could increase and because he constantly confuses moralistic and scientific thinking

Mexico and Central America 1- •Mexico's population makes up about ---% in the region remaining nations make up for the rest. Mexico's population was ---million in 2015. The total regional population including Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize is ---million as of 2010. 2- •Before Spanish Invasion (1519), Mexico's population experienced an 80% decline (---) due to diseases and violence. Even in the early 1930s, the life expectancy was low at about ---years only. However, since 1930s, mortality started declining, and birth rates remained high and population exploded. Since the 1970s, Mexico's birth rate started declining to due to ---that promoted smaller families and provided family planning. By 2015, women in Mexico were having ---children in their lifetime on the average compared to a high of six that existed for many years. Mexico also now enjoys high --- at 79 years for women, which is greater than world average. Describe the population dynamics of Mexico? 3- •The other Central American nations, like Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, have a high percentage of ---who have high fertility levels that are higher than the world average. Costa Rica is an exception where fertility level is ---and life expectancy is ---. In fact, Costa Rica's life expectancy is higher than US and has below replacement fertility levels, which causes this country to rely on ---from neighboring nations.

1- - 75 - 125 - 152 2- - population implosion - 30 - governmental policies - 2.2 - life expectancy 3- - indigenous population - low - high - immigrant workers

China 1- •1.3 billion Chinese and about a fifth of world's population is of ---origin. •In 1982, China conducted complete population enumeration (Census) for the first time since 1964. Population of 1980 was slightly greater than ---. 2- •Population Control Policies •Since 1960s, birth rates in China started ---. Governmental philosophy was ---,---, and --- - This philosophy was formally translated into the ---in 1979 at which point, fertility had already started declining. 3- •Between 1963-1983, fertility in China had reduced from --- to ---! Most rapid drop ever seen. - •Currently, China's fertility is low with --- children born per woman which is below replacement. 4- - •The number of females in the reproductive ages, between 25-45, is ---in China now because high growth in the past. - This leads to high birth levels even though population growth rates is similar to that of US. Around 2012, China added 11 million to its population by primarily birth each year, where as the US adds 2.5 million including immigration. - •China took advantage of its "---" that led to its much envied economic growth.

1- - Chinese - 1 billion - very high 2- - declining - later (marriage), longer (birth intervals) and fewer (children). - one-child policy 3- - 7.5 to 2.5 - most rapid drop ever seen - 1.5 4- - high - despite the policies - demographic dividend - huge pop that was in working age and more industrialized = increase in productivity

Understanding Population Explosion (Rapid Recent Increases) - we elaborate on why population increased following the Industrial Revolution. - Along with population explosion, it is a good idea to know another term: population implosion that is already taking place in some regions in the world. 1- After Industrial Revolution (1750), death rates ---in Europe, N. America, and then in the developing world. Standard of living ---: nutrition, shelter, water, sanitation. 2-Population explosion occurred first in the ---that also experienced economic boom. - After ---, public health advanced spread globally (into developing nations) and causing reduction in mortality, resulting in a huge increase in population. 3- Population Implosion: term coined by --- and ---, - means a ---. - This is a - However, some nations are experiencing population implosion, e.g. Germany, Italy, and Japan. These nations might be vulnerable to the pressure from ---from developing/less developed nations whose population is expected to grow (think demand and supply).

1- - declined - improved 2- - current developed world - World War II 3- - Eberstadt and Wattenberg - decrease in earth's population - hypothetical scenario that has not occurred yet globally. - international migration - because pop is declining in more developed nations and that demand is fulfilled by developing nations. because birth rates are low in developed nations

How Fast?: - Here we are introduced to population growth rate, absolute growth, and doubling time-all of which measures population growth 1- •Population Growth Rate (Percent) - has ---. - World population is now growing at a much ---than in the past. 2- •Absolute Growth (Numbers): is still ---, but ---people being added annually; lower ---. - Absolute growth depends on the ---of the population. - If you build upon 7 billion people at only 1.15% annual growth rate, you are still adding ---million people yearly. 3- In 1800, --- were added each year - In 2050, --- (projection) will be added each year 4- Doubling Time: --- - indicates the ---. - It only took about ---for population to double from 3 to 6 billion. 5- - Could population double again from 6 to 12 billion? - It is likely that global population will not double again. Why?

1- - decreased - lower rate 2- - increasing - fewer - population momentum - size - 84 3- - 4 million - over 50 million 4- - Time (years) in which population doubles in size; - pace of population growth - 40 years 5- - it is very likely that the worlds pop will not double because we are reaching the peak

South Asia: (most populous India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) 1- •India's population is 1.3 billion with land area smaller than China. India has moderate ---- a woman has ---children on average. 2- - Annual population growth rate is ---%, which is ---world average. - Death rates have ---, but fertility levels have ---leading to continual population growth. - Population growth and momentum have reduced in India as well from the past. India adds about ---million people every year primarily through ---increase. 3- Cultural diversity causes --- - •India's population is not homogeneous and is culturally diverse. Most states have different language and customs. This leads to disparity in ---and ---. - This diversity also leads to implementing unified population policy difficult. Southern Indian states are more literate and developed than the northern states. Fertility in southern states is ---replacement levels by mid 1990s, while only 4 northern states make up for 40% of the nation's population. 4- Pakistan and Bangladesh •India's independence from the British in 1947 created two other nations: Pakistan and Bangladesh. India and Bangladesh have ---fertility levels (Bangladesh's just slightly lower at 2.3), while Pakistan's is ---at 3.8 children per women. Among these three nations, ---'s population growth rate is also the highest.

1- - fertility level - 2.4 2- - 1.5 - above - reduced - not declined rapidly - 19 - natural 3- - differential population dynamics - economic development - population growth - below 4- - similar - greater - Pakistan

1- One of the ways Europeans dealt with increase in population was ---. It is also referred to as European expansion. - While European expansion occurred in the past, in current times, the migration flow is occurring from --- to --- - This is often referred to as the ---. 2- European Expansion - Started by 14th century when --- - Gained momentum by 19th century when population of Europe increased rapidly due to ---. - Europeans looked for opportunities, because ---,---,--, and --- caused status instability in Europe. - If ---presented in new lands off shore discovered by pioneers, it was sought after. 3- Proportion of Europeans in the World -Before expansion, Europeans made up about ---% of the world's population with ---% residing in Europe. -After expansion, which peaked in the 1930s, European population was almost ---% of the world's population distributed between Europe, Oceania, and North America. -Around 2000, their global share was about 16% and is expected to ----to about 13% by 2050. - due to expansion in other parts of the globe 4- ---- - European population was greater than populations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America until circa 1930 when European expansion peaked, but after that the trend reversed. Then on, population of less developed nations started increased and migration initiated from less developed nations to more developed nations. New migrants can alter the population structure of a region due to births. In 2003, more than 50% of all births in California were to Latino mothers. Non-Hispanic whites are no longer majority in California. By 2050, Hispanics are expected to be the majority in California. This is because California's immigrant population is predominantly Hispanic and immigrants from the developing tend to have higher fertility rates. However, this pattern also depends on the socioeconomic level of the immigrants.

1- - out-migration - less developed nation to more developed or richer nations. - South to North migration 2- - Europeans searched for less developed parts of the world. - industrialization - rapid urbanization, new occupations, financial panic, and competition - opportunity 3- - 18 - 90 - 35 - almost double - decline 4- South to North Migration

Redistributing Global Population Growth through Migration 1- - One of the ramifications of population explosion is the ; meaning some balancing of population achieved through migration. 2-Streams of people flowing from rapidly --areas to ---rapidly growing areas. 3- Past example: 4- Contemporary example:

1- - redistribution of gliobal population 2- - growing - less 3- - Europeans to various global destinations (developed to developing) 4- Latin America to US, Asia to Canada (developing to developed)

1- - Demography: - Origins: Demos (---); graphien (---) 2- - In demography we study anything that is affected or changed by population, such as:

1- - scientific study of population. - people, to write about 2- - size, growth, processes, distribution, structure characteristics

1- Population Dynamics Processes: 2- Please remember that the population size of a place is only affected by

1- •Fertility •Mortality •Migration - these three population processes are central to our understanding of demography/population dynamics. 2- births, deaths, and in and out migration.

Current State of World's Population - History of Global Population 1- 10K years ago, population of the world was ---- just before the Agricultural Revolution - As the population of world grew, strain was put on the resources leading to issues related to ---. - How much population can the planet support or a nation support? This is the concept of ---. 2- Carrying Capacity- 3- Industrial Revolution (1750): - Just prior to industrial revolution, population of earth was increasing at about ---per year. - Carrying capacity of ---was not keeping pace, which probably spurred ---

1- - 4 million - sustainability - carrying capacity 2- - number of people supported by available physical resources in a given area and it is dependent on how people use these resources. (Ex farmable land) - Pre-agricultural revolution, population of the planet equaled carrying capacity of the way of life i.e. hunting and gathering society. 3- - 2 million - agricultural society - industrial revolution.

1- Examples of Premodern Doctrines 2- Modern Theories 3- 1971-present

1- - Book of Genesis—"Be fruitful and multiply." - Confucius—Population growth is good, but governments should maintain a balance between population and resources - Plato—Population quality more important than quantity; emphasis on population stability. 2- - Malthus—Population grows exponentially while food supply grows arithmetically, with misery (poverty) being the result in the absence of moral restraint - Neo-Malthusian—Accepting the basic Malthusian premise that population growth tends to outstrip resources, but unlike Malthus believing that birth control measures are appropriate checks to population growth. - Marxian—Each society at each point in history has its own law of population that determines the consequences of population growth; poverty is not the natural result of population growth 3- - Decomposition of the demographic transition into its separate transitions—Health and mortality, fertility, age, migration, urbanization, and family and household.

1- Post-industrialization Population Explosion: - After industrialization, there was an increase in population due to many --- 2- Since 1974, every ---, 1 billion people were being added to the planet. 3- Is the population of the world still increasing? Short answer is ---. - Peak at around ---in 2100 per UN Population Division projections (medium growth scenario)

1- - World population increased to 6 billion in only 300 years. - advances in the areas of medical sciences 2- 12-13 years 3- - Yes, but not for too long - 11 billion

The Relationship of Population to Resource 1- Food: 2- Water: 3- Energy: 4- Housing and Infrastructure: 5- Environmental Degradation:

1- This especially impacts less developed countries with rapidly rising food demands and small energy reserves - raises the fear that the world may have surpassed its ability to sustain even current levels of food production, 2-An estimated one in three humans already face water scarcity, as demand for water increases faster than the available supply of fresh water 3- Our rising standard of living is directly tied to our increasing use of energy, yet every increment in demand is another claim on those resources. 4- All of the future population growth in the world is expected to show up in the cities, especially those in developing countries. The irony of growing more food is that it requires mechanization, rather than more laborers - building homes (which requires lumber, cement, and a lot of other resources) and providing urban infrastructure (water, sewerage, electricity, roads, telecommunications, etc.) for those 2 to 3 billion newcomers. This increasing "demographic overhead" is burdensome, particularly for those countries that already cannot adequately provide for their urban populations 5- As the human population has increased, so has its potential for disrupting the earth's biosphere. The very same explosion in scientific knowledge that has allowed us to push death back to ever older ages, thus unleashing population growth, has also taught us how to convert the earth's natural resources into those things that comprise our higher standard of living

World Population Growth - Brief History 1- Modern human beings have been around for at least 200,000 years - For almost all of that time, humans were hunter-gatherers living a primitive existence marked by high fertility, high mortality, and at best only very slow population growth - Given the very difficult exigencies for survival in these early societies, it is no surprise that the population of the world on the eve of the Agricultural Revolution (also known as the Neolithic Agrarian Revolution)... 2- Carrying capacity refers to 3- Since hunting and gathering use resources extensively rather than intensively

1- about 10,000 years ago is estimated to have been only 4 million people 2- the number of people that can be supported indefinitely in an area given the available physical resources and the way in which people use those resources 3- it was natural that over tens of thousands of years humans would move inexorably into the remote corners of the earth in search of sustenance. - Eventually, people in most of those corners began to use the environment more intensively, leading to the more sedentary, agricultural way of life that has characterized most of human society for the past 10,000 years

1- In 2012 two financial analysts in California put together a demographic-economic model of 176 countries of the world. Their conclusion was that

1- age structures with a disproportionate share of people of working age are good for economic growth (economies with a demographic tailwind), and age structures with lots of kids or lots of older people are not so good (economies with a headwind).

Demography: scientific study of population - How regional conflict can be facilitated by demographic changes. - Impact of Demography felt in most aspects of life - Regional conflict 1- ◦Afghanistan: 2- ◦Iran: 3- ◦Israel-Palestine conflict: 4- ◦Sub-Saharan Africa:

1- by rejecting modernization by Taliban there is a purposeful stagnation of society. For example, lower status of women can lead to negative consequences such as high maternal mortality. 2- revolution of 1978 accelerated due to large pool of young, unemployed men who migrated from rural areas to Tehran. 3- "Youth bulge," which is a large population of youth can make a volatile situation as in this region even more unstable, although it does not have to be so. 4- Orphans created by HIV/AIDS can be recruited for warfare or subject to child-trafficking.

Riding the Age Wave 1- A key demographic with which societies must cope is the 2- The baby boom is still having an impact, but now the big question has become: How will the country finance the retirement and the health care needs of baby boomers as they age and retire?

1- changing age structure 2- As the older cohorts begin to squeeze national systems of social insurance, legislative action will be required to make long-run changes in the financing and benefit structure of these systems if they are to survive. As noted above and as I will discuss later in the book, immigration is one solution, but it comes with a lot of other costs attached - Delaying retirement is probably the easiest change to make, at least in the abstract. - Increased self-reliance is another proposed solution, requiring people when younger to save for their own retirement through mandatory contributions to mutual funds and other investment instruments. - It may also be, when the time comes, that taxes will be raised on younger people in order to bail out older people who, in fact, did not save enough for their retirement.

1- The original model of the demographic transition is divided roughly into three stages. - In the first stage there is ---because both birth and death rates are high. - The second stage is the ---from high to low birth and death rates. During this stage the growth potential is realized as the death rate drops before the birth rate drops, resulting in ----. - Finally, the last stage is a time when death rates are as ---as they are likely to go, while fertility may continue to decline to the point that the population might eventually decline in numbers 2- Modernization theory is based on the idea that - example - It is a ----level theory that sees human actors as being buffeted by changing social institutions Critique of the Demographic Transition Theory 3- It has been argued that the concept underlying the demographic transition is that population stability, also known as --- is the normal state of affairs in human societies and that change (the "transition") is what requires explanation 4- the demographic transition theory has not been capable of predicting levels of ---,or---,or---of the fertility decline. - This is because the initial explanation for the demographic behavior during the transition tended to be --- 5- Perhaps, then, the modernization theory, in and of itself, did not provide an appropriate picture of historical development

1- - high growth potential - transition, rapid population growth - low 2- in premodern times human society was generally governed by "tradition," and that the massive economic changes wrought by industrialization forced societies to alter traditional institutions - ex: "In traditional societies fertility and mortality are high. In modern societies fertility and mortality are low. In between, there is demographic transition" - macro, 3- homeostasis 4- mortality or fertility or the timing - ethnocentric 5- when mortality did decline, it did so as a consequence of internal economic development, not as a result of a foreign country bringing in sophisticated techniques - the factors leading to the demographic transition were actually different from what for years had been accepted as true.

Immigration (contd.): - Globalization: Includes democratic processes 1- ◦Globalization initiated because of ---in developed nations caused by decreases in mortality due to ---. 2- ◦Medical advances ("---") were introduced to developing nations via United Nations programs, which, in turn, led to population increases (---). 3- ◦Availability of ---in developing nations who will work for lower wages. 4- ◦Removal of ---in developing nations. 5- ◦Increase in ---in developing nations that has a liking/desire for goods and products used in richer nations: fast food, music, cars etc.

1- - increase in population - medical advances 2- - death control technology - explosion 3- skilled population 4- protectionist trade barriers 5- consumers

1- In the US, we start with our history in terms of ---. - An interesting fact is that early in American history, the population increased by --- not by --- 2- Distribution and Variation of World's Population - •Most populous nations: - These nations make for almost half (---%) of the world's population. - •Top 10 populous nations make for almost ---% of the world's population. - •Neighboring nations, ---and---, make for about 37% of the global population. 3- United States •History of US population - •In the 1650, there were only about 50,000 Europeans and 2-3 million Native Americans. The population of Native Americans reduced to 250,000 due to ---and ---, and that for Europeans increased to 25 million. - indicates stark nature of how pop changes over time 4- - •In early America, in the New England region, ---were high and ---low. - ---rates were also low- e.g., in the Plymouth Colony, it lower than some of the less developed nations of today. So, the population was generally healthy. 5- - •In the south, the conditions were ---and spread of diseases like malaria and yellow fever was easier. - •Initially (1790s), the US population increased due to ---(more births than deaths). Common perception is due to ---.

1- - population composition - births and not by immigration. 2- - China, India, US, Indonesia, Brasil. - 47 - 60 - India and China 3- - warfare and diseases 4- - birth rates and mortality rates were low - Infant mortality 5- - harsher - natural increase - immigration

1- people on average 2- It is quite likely that the Industrial Revolution occurred in part because 3- There can be little question why the term population explosion was coined to describe 4- The world's population did not reach 1 billion until after the - The 2 billion mark was hit in - The United Nations expects that we will reach

1- (births - deaths) 2- of this population growth. 3- the world's population increasing dramatically 4- American Revolution—the United Nations fixes the year at 1804 - in 1927, just before the Great Depression - 8 billion in 2023, 9 billion in 2040, 10 billion in 2061, and we could be very close to 11 billion by 2100—an incredible elevenfold increase in only three centuries

The Theory of Demographic Change and Response 1-How (and under what conditions) can a mortality decline lead to a fertility decline? 2- Why advocate postponement of marriage and sexual gratification rather than contraception when you know that few people who postpone marriage are actually going to postpone sexual intercourse, too? 3- In the early eighteenth century, Richard Cantillon, an Irish-French economist, was pointing out what happened in Europe when families grew too large (and this was even before mortality began markedly to decline): 4- But what will be the response of that second generation, the children who now have survived when previously they would not have, and who have thus put the pressure on resources? 5- Davis suggests that the most powerful motive for family limitation is not fear of poverty or avoidance of pain as Malthus argued; rather, it is 6- Davis's analysis is important in reminding us of the crucial link between the

1- , Kingsley Davis (1963) asked what happens to individuals when mortality declines - The answer is that more children survive through adulthood, putting greater pressure on family resources, and people have to reorganize their lives in an attempt to relieve that pressure; that is, people respond to the demographic change - But note that their response will be in terms of personal goals, not national goals 2- Ludwig Brentano (1910) quite forthrightly suggested that Malthus was insane to think that abstinence was the cure for the poor 3- if they do not find enough employment in the neighboring town they must go further afield or change their occupation to get a living 4- ? Davis argues that if there is in fact a chance for social or economic improvement, then people will try to take advantage of those opportunities by avoiding the large families that caused problems for their parents 5- the prospect of rising prosperity that will most often motivate people to find the means to limit the number of children they have - Of course, that assumes the individuals in question have already attained some status worth maintaining 6- everyday lives of individuals and the kinds of population changes that take place in society.

Global Variation in Population Size and Growth 1- World population is currently growing at a rate of 2- The most rapidly growing regions in the world tend to be - ; whereas the slowest growing are

1- 1.15 percent annually, implying a net addition of 84 million people per year, but there is a lot of variability underlying those global numbers 2- e in the mid-latitudes, and these are nations that are least developed economically—the "global south"; - the richer nations, which tend to be more northerly and southerly

The Marxian Perspective 1- Several German states and Austria had responded to what they believed was overly rapid growth in the number of poor people by legislating against marriages in which the applicant could not guarantee that his family would not wind up on welfare 2- Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels' demographic perspective thus arose

1- As it turned out, that scheme backfired on the German states, because people continued to have children, but out of wedlock. - Thus, the welfare rolls grew as the illegitimate children had to be cared for by the state 2- in reaction to Malthus.

L2 Objectives

1- Compare and contrast Marxian and Malthusian perspectives. 2- Interpret and apply Demographic Transition Theory. 3- Compare and contrast Transition of multiple nations.

Immigration ◦The need for immigrants and the debate - Immigration is another demographic process that can affect our lives. In this slide I bring up the need for immigrants in highly industrialized nations and some of the issues that are prevalent in countries where immigrants originate. 1- ◦---creates a demand for immigration usually in developed nations like US, Canada, UK, etc. 2- ◦Canada is the most --- 3- ◦US accepts the most --- - Issues in sending countries 4- ◦Population has not declined as rapidly as expected but ---not enough to sustain the increasing population, e.g., Mexico. 5- ◦Substantial declines in birth rates in Europe for decades has increased the need for workers. This need is filled by migrants from former European colonies like India, Pakistan, Senegal, and Turkey. This flow of immigrants from developing to developed countries can cause "---" in the developing countries that might have benefited from them.

1- Declining population of working age 2- accepting nation for immigrants (per capita) 3- immigrants in absolute numbers 4- job growth 5- brain drain - benefiting developed nations/ takes away skilled individuals from developing nations

1- doctrine as opposed to theory. 2- In the process of sorting out the evidence, 3- In demography, as in all of the sciences, theories replace doctrine when

1- Early thinkers were certain they had the answers and certain that their proclamations represented the truth about population growth and its implications for society. - By contrast, the essence of modern scientific thought is to assume that you do not have the answer and to acknowledge that you are willing to consider evidence regardless of the conclusion to which it points. 2- we develop tentative explanations (hypotheses and then theories) that help guide our thinking and our search for understanding 3- new, systematically collected information (censuses and other sources discussed in the next chapter) becomes available, allowing people to question old ideas and formulate new ones.

Reformulation of the Demographic Transition Theory 1- One of the most important social scientific endeavors to cast doubt on the classic explanation was the ---, directed by Ansley Coale 2- the history of fertility change in Spain was not explained by a simple version of the ---. - Fertility in Spain declined in contiguous areas that were culturally similar, even though the levels of urbanization and economic development might be different 3- secularization - how is it associated with fertility declines - what are accompanied by secularization - ---has been identified as one (indeed, probably the most important) potential stimulant to such altered attitudes 4- Building on the concept of spatial demography, it was found that areas sharing a similar ---were more likely to share a decline in fertility than areas that were culturally less similar 5-

1- European Fertility Project 2- demographic transition theory - it became apparent that economic development may be a sufficient cause of fertility decline, but not a necessary one 3- Secularization is an attitude of autonomy from otherworldly powers and a sense of responsibility for one's own well-being - one of the more common similarities in those areas that have undergone fertility declines is the rapid spread of secularization - industrialization and economic development are virtually always accompanied by secularization - Education 4- culture (same language, common ethnic background, similar lifestyle) 5-

1- Immigration

1- Globalization of the labor force has significantly broadened the ancient relationship between jobs and geography by bringing jobs to people in developing countries. . For most of human history, a lack of jobs meant that young people moved to where the jobs were. Even as some jobs are heading to developing countries, many young people in those countries are headed to the richer countries, facilitated by what I call the "demographic fit" between the young age structures of developing countries and the aging populations in richer countries. - laves places and causes low birthrate and declines labor force

Immigration (contd.): 1- Reverse immigration from Latin America to Europe post 9/11. - effect: 2- Europe's Demographic Time-bomb - why migration to Europe from Latin America increased post 9/11/ 3 - Immigrant integration problematic in US as well, but - Contrarily, Japan is largely closed to immigration, although population is declining. This is resulting in ---

1- Immigration to the US became harder. 2- - ◦Low fertility and declining population - ◦Immigrants cause of population growth because they are usually young and of reproductive age - positive b/c immigrants help meet the demand of labor and natural increase - ◦Immigration creates societal issues related to differences in cultures, language, religion etc. 3- - as immigrants assimilate/acculturate in the US, they become fabric of the nation, as though the nation keeps renewing itself. - sluggish economic growth. - stagnation

The Urban Revolution 1- Until very recently in world history, almost everyone lived in basically rural areas. Large cities were few and far between.

1- It is estimated that as recently as 1800, less than 1 percent of the world's population lived in cities of 100,000 or more. Nearly half of all humans now live in cities of that size.

Premodern Population Doctrines pt.4 1- Mercantilist doctrines were supported by the emerging demographic analyses of people like 2- who is sometimes called the father of demography 3- discovered 4- Graunt "opened the way both for the later discovery of 5- Harrison and Carroll (2005) note that Graunt's studies are thought by many people to mark the beginning of

1- John Graunt, William Petty, and Edmund Halley (all English) in the seventeenth century, and Johann Peter Süssmilch, an eighteenth-century chaplain in the army of Frederick the Great of Prussia (now Germany). 2- John Graunt, a Londoner - analyzed the series of Bills of Mortality in the first known statistical analysis of demographic data 3- for every 100 people born in London, only 16 were still alive at age 36 and only 3 at age 66- suggesting very high levels of mortality - With these data he uncovered the high incidence of infant mortality in London and found, somewhat to the amazement of people at the time, that there were regular patterns of death in different parts of London 4- uniformities in many social or volitional phenomena like marriage, suicide, and crime, and for a study of these uniformities, their nature and their limits; thus he, more than any other man, was the founder of statistics" 5- social science as we know it today, not just statistics or demography.

Critique of Malthus 1- t later in the nineteenth century both sides in the debate over ending slavery in the United States called upon Malthusian arguments to bolster their case, even though 2- The three most strongly criticized aspects of his theory have been 3- Malthus was not a firm believer in progress; rather, he accepted the notion that each society had a fixed set of institutions that established a stationary level of living.

1- Malthus himself was vociferously opposed to slavery. 2- (1) the assertion that food production could not keep up with population growth, (2) the conclusion that poverty was an inevitable result of population growth, and (3) the belief that moral restraint was the only acceptable preventive check. 3- He was aware, of course, of the Industrial Revolution, but he was skeptical of its long-run value and agreed with the physiocrats that real wealth was in agricultural land.

Regional Conflict

1- One reaction to population growth is to accept or even embrace the change and then seek positive solutions to the dilemmas presented by an increasingly larger (or smaller, for that matter) younger population (or older population)—you get the idea. 2- Another reaction, of course, is to reject change. This is what the Taliban has been trying to do for decades in parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan—to prevent a society from modernizing by force and, in the process, keeping death rates higher than they might otherwise be and maintaining women in an inferior status by withholding access to education, paid employment, health care, and the means of preventing pregnancy

1- - ---is the number of children born woman to a woman for a population to be able to replace itself from one generation to the next. 2- •From the mid 1800s, immigration was ---. Between 1850-1920, immigrants accounted for as much as ---% of the population growth every decade. 3- •By 1930, fertility in the US dropped to ---and ---almost halted, leading to stagnation of population. 4- •Post WWII, in mid 1940s, Baby Boom occurred due to sustained peace and economic growth leading to population growth. Then, the late 1960s and 1970s were marked by Baby Bust leading to population ---. 1980s were marked by ----, which is an echo effect of Baby Boom. 5- •Since 1980s, fertility levels hovered at or ---. 6- •Immigration contributed to substantial population ---in the 1960s (when discriminatory immigration laws were revoked) and in the 1990s (when immigration regulations were relaxed). About ---immigrants (documented and undocumented) are added each year to the US, accounting for almost ---% of the annual population growth. 7- •Immigrants are usually of ---and on average have fertility levels that are ---. There is variation in fertility levels among various immigrant groups.

1- Replacement level fertility 2- - substantial - 20 3- - below replacement level - immigration 4- - decline - Baby Boomlet 5- -below the replacement level 6- - increase - 1 million - 40 7- - reproductive age - above replacement

Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 1- North America 2- United States

1- The United States and Canada—North America—have a combined population of 361 million as of 2015, representing just under 5 percent of the world's total. - The demographic trajectories of the two countries are intertwined but are not identical. 2- the population of the United States has undergone a total transformation since John Cabot (an Italian hired by the British to search the new world) landed in Newfoundland in 1497 and claimed North America for the British. - Early America was a model of demographic decimation for the indigenous population, while being a model of rapid population growth for the European-origin population. - the population was doubling in size every 25 years - Though Americans may picture foreigners pouring in seeking freedom or fortune, it was not until the last third of the nineteenth century that migration became a substantial factor in American population growth - Throughout the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the birth rate in the United States was falling due to limited fertility and immigration restrictions - The early post-World War II era upset forecasts of population decline to be replaced by the realities of a population explosion. The result was the period from 1946 to 1964 generally known as the "baby boom" era - also the 1960s and then again in the 1990s adjustments of the nation's immigration laws opened the doors wider.

Globalization 1- Regional conflict is one response to population growth, but a less violent, albeit still controversial, response has been globalization. 2-

1- The pros and cons of this process invite heated debate, but an important, yet generally ignored, element of globalization is that it is closely related to the enormous increase in worldwide population growth that took place after the end of World War II 2- Control over mortality, which has permitted the growth of population, occurred first in the countries of Europe and North America, and it was there that population first began to grow rapidly in the modern world, gaining steam in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. However, after World War II, death control technology was spread globally, especially through the work of various UN agencies, funded by the governments of the richer countries.

1- why it is impossible to be a demographic determinist? 2- Without knowledge of population dynamics, for example, 3-

1- There is no guarantee, however, about how a society will react to demographic change. - Demographic change does demand a societal response, but different societies will respond differently, sometimes for the better, sometimes not 2- we cannot fully understand why the world is globalizing at such a rapid pace, nor can we understand the roots of conflict from the Middle East to Southeast Asia; nor why there is a simultaneous acceptance of and a backlash against immigrants in the United States and Europe. 3-

Premodern Population Doctrines 1- Until about 2,500 years ago, human societies probably shared a common concern about population: 2- In two of the more developed areas of the world 2,500 years ago, however, 3- Plato, writing in The Laws in 360 b.c., emphasized the importance of 4- n the Roman Empire, the reigns of Julius and Augustus Caesar were marked by clearly pronatalist doctrines—a necessity, given the very high mortality that characterized the Roman era

1- They valued reproduction as a means of replacing people lost through universally high mortality. 2- awareness of the potential for populations to grow beyond their resources prompted comment by well-known philosophers - In the fifth century b.c., the writings of the school of Confucius in China discussed the relationship between population and resources - Nonetheless, the idea of promoting population growth was clear in the doctrine of Confucius 3- population stability rather than growth. - Specifically, Plato proposed keeping the ideal community of free citizens (as differentiated from indentured laborers or slaves who had few civil rights) at a constant 5,040 - The number of people desired by Plato was still moderately small, because Plato felt that too many people led to anonymity, which would undermine democracy, whereas too few people would prevent an adequate division of labor and would not allow a community to be properly defended. 4- In approximately 50 b.c., Cicero noted that population growth was seen by the leaders of Rome as a necessary means of replacing war casualties and of ensuring enough people to help colonize new lands.

Two questions have to be answered before you will be able to develop your own perspective:

(1) What are the causes of population change; and (2) What are the consequences of population change?

"Past is a foreign country." (Hartley 1967) - ◦Example of the US 1910-2010 ◦US population has increased almost 3.4 times but the share of US population decreased slightly (5.1 to 4.5%). ◦29 year increase in female life expectancy ◦Fertility levels decreased (3.5 to 1.9) ◦Percent foreign-born reduced ◦81% urban from 46% ◦High school graduates increased ◦Household size decreased ◦Mexican immigration increased and Italian immigration decreased (1900-1910 and 1990-2000)

- This is an example of how the various aspects of population can change that renders a nation almost unrecognizable (in terms of population) between two points in time. - This is a comparison of the population of the US between 1910 and 2010 and as you can see that the changes are rather drastic between the two points in time such that US in 1910 may appear as a foreign country when compared to the US in 2010. - looks like a different nation

Why Was Early Growth So Slow? 1- The reason the population grew so slowly during the first 99 percent of human history was that 2- As humans settled into agricultural communities, population began to increase at a slightly higher rate than during the hunting-gathering era, and BocquetAppel (2008) has called this the 3- Initially it was thought that birth rates remained high but death rates declined slightly because of the more steady supply of food, and thus the population grew. However, 4- It should be kept in mind, of course, that only a small difference between

1- death rates were very high. 2- Neolithic Demographic Transition 3- However, archaeological evidence combined with studies of extant hunter-gatherer groups has offered a somewhat more complicated explanation for growth during this period - Fertility rates did, indeed, rise as new diets improved the ability of women to conceive and bear children (see Chapter 6). Also, it became easier to wean children from the breast earlier because of the greater availability of soft foods, which are easily eaten by babies. This would have shortened the birth intervals, and the birth rate could have risen on that account alone, and to a level higher than the death rate, thus promoting population growth. 4- birth and death rates is required to account for the slow growth achieved after the Agricultural Revolution.

Why Are More Recent Increases So Rapid? 1- The acceleration in population growth after 1750 was due largely to the 2- In the more developed countries, declines in mortality at first were due to 3- Later, especially after 1900, much of the decline in mortality was due to 4- almost all the growth of the world's population is originating in 5- Between 2015 and 2050, the medium projections of the United Nations suggest that the world will add 2.2 billion people. Only ---percent of this increase is expected to occur in the more developed nations. The less developed nations (excluding the least developed) will account for ---percent of the increase, and the least developed will account for ---percent.

1- declines in the death rate that came about as part of the scientific revolution that accompanied the Industrial Revolution. 2- the effects of economic development and a rising standard of living—people were eating better, wearing warmer clothes, living in better houses, bathing more often, drinking cleaner water, and so on 3- improvements in public health and medical technology, including sanitation and especially vaccination against infectious diseases 4- less developed nations. - In the less developed countries, although the risk of death has been lowered dramatically, birth rates have gone down less quickly, and the result is continuing population growth. 5- 2 , 59, 39

1- Population growth is an irresistible force because... 2- The rise in life expectancy over the past two centuries, and most dramatically since the end of World War II, is the most important phenomenon in human history because...

1- every social, political, and economic problem facing the world today has demographic change as a root cause. 2- people living longer has produced unprecedented population growth and previously unthinkable transformations in human society. t this past is definitely prologue to your own future, as the world's population will continue to increase for the rest of your life

1- Size: 2- Growth: 3- Processes: 4- Distribution: 5- Structure: 6- Characteristics:

1- existing/ absolute number of people (in a place/ nation) 2- change- increase or decrease 3- fertility, mortality, migration (important: births, deaths, moving in/ out) 4- where population is located and why 5- number of females and males at different ages (gender and age) 6- socioeconomic status of people- education, income, occupation, household/family relationships etc.

1- Physiocrats also believed that 2- Central to Smith's view of the world was the idea that 3- Smith differed slightly from the physiocrats, however, on the idea of what led to wealth in a society. Smith believed that - From this idea sprang the belief that there is a natural harmony between 4- Thus, Smith felt that population size is determined by 5- These ideas are important to us because Smith's work served as an inspiration for the

1- free trade (rather than the import restrictions demanded by Mercantilists) was essential to economic prosperity. - This concept of "laissez-faire" (let people do as they choose) was picked up by Adam Smith, a Scotsman and one of the first modern economic theorists 2- if left to their own devices, people acting in their own self-interest would produce what was best for the community as a whole 3- wealth sprang from the labor applied to the land (we might now say the "value added" to the land by labor), rather than it being just in the land itself. - economic growth and population growth, with the latter depending always on the former 4- the demand for labor, which is, in turn, determined by the productivity of the land. 5- Malthusian theory of population, as Malthus himself acknowledges

The Prelude to the Demographic Transition Theory -Mill 1- Mill was not as quarrelsome about Malthus as Marx and Engels had been; 2- Mill accepted the Malthusian calculations about the potential for population growth to outstrip food production as being axiomatic (a self-truth), but he was more optimistic about human nature than Malthus was. 3- Mill's basic thesis was that the standard of living is a 4- The belief that people could be and should be free to pursue their own goals in life led him to reject 5- One of Mill's most famous comments is that "the niggardliness of nature, not the injustice of society, is the cause of the " 6- This is a point of view conditioned by Mill's reading of Malthus, but Mill denies the Malthusian inevitability of 7- In the event that population ever did overrun the food supply, however, Mill felt that it would likely be a temporary situation with at least two possible solutions: 8- The ideal state from Mill's point of view is that in which 9- It was Mill's belief that before reaching the point at which both population and production are stable, there is essentially a race between the two. If social and economic development are to occur,

1- his scientific insights were greater than those of Malthus at the same time that his politics were less radical than those of Marx and Engels. 2- Mill believed that although your character is formed by circumstances, one's own desires can do much to shape circumstances and modify future habit 3- major determinant of fertility levels: "In proportion as mankind rises above the condition of the beast, population is restrained by the fear of want, rather than by want itself. 4- the idea that poverty is inevitable (as Malthus implied) or that it is the creation of capitalist society (as Marx argued). 5- penalty attached to overpopulation 6- a population growing beyond its available resources 7- import food or export people 8- all members of a society are economically comfortable - t the population would stabilize and people would try to progress culturally, morally, and socially instead of attempting continually to get ahead economically 9- there must be a sudden increase in income, which could give rise to a new standard of living for a whole generation, thus allowing productivity to outdistance population growth.

comparing population data for the United States in the year 1910 with that of the year 2010

1- in 1910 there were fewer than 2 billion people on the planet, whereas by 2010 there were nearly 7 billion 2- Although the U.S. population grew considerably during that century, from 92 million to 309 million, it did not keep pace with overall world population growth and so accounted for a slightly smaller fraction of the world's population in 2010 than it had in 1910 3- Mortality levels in the U.S. dropped substantially over the century, leading to a truly amazing 29-year rise in life expectancy for females, from 52 in 1910 to 81 in 2010, with men lagging behind just a bit 4- Fertility also declined over the century between 1910 and 2010, although by world standards fertility in the United States in 1910 was already fairly low (3.5 children per woman), having dropped from an estimated 7 children per woman at the beginning of the nineteenth century. 5- Americans rearranged themselves spatially within the country over that span of time, and the considerable westward movement is exemplified by the increase in the fraction of the population living in California. It went from only 3 percent in 1910 to 12 percent in 2010 7- In the latter part of the twentieth century, much of that growth in Los Angeles was fueled by immigrants from Mexico and Central America, but over the course of the century the composition of international immigrants had shifted substantially. In the decade preceding the 1910 census, there were about 123,000 Mexican immigrants to the United States, compared to 1.2 million Italian immigrants in the same time period. By contrast, in the decade leading up to the census in 2010, the numbers were essentially reversed, with 28,000 Italian immigrants and 1.7 million Mexican legal immigrants, 8- The past was young, with 32 percent under the age of 15 and only 4 percent aged 65 and older; whereas the present is older, with only 20 percent under 15 and 13 percent aged 65 and older 9- The past was predominantly rural, and the present is predominantly urban 10- In the past, people were considerably less well educated than today, with only about 10 percent of those in 1910 achieving a high school education, compared to 87 percent now

Causes of Population Growth 1-Malthus believed that human beings, like plants and nonrational animals, are "impelled" to 2- We humans, though, have not accomplished anything nearly so impressive. Why not? Because of the 3- According to Malthus, the ultimate check to growth is 4- A cornerstone of his argument is that populations tend to grow 5- while he believed (incorrectly, as Darwin later pointed out) that food production could be increased only

1- increase the population of the species by what he called a powerful "instinct," the urge to reproduce. - Further, if there were no checks on population growth, human beings would multiply to an "incalculable" number, filling "millions of worlds in a few thousand years" 2- the checks to growth that Malthus pointed out—factors that have kept population growth from reaching its biological potential for covering the earth with human bodies 3- lack of food (the "means of subsistence" - . In turn, the means of subsistence are limited by the amount of land available, the "arts" or technology that could be applied to the land, and "social organization" or land ownership patterns 4- more rapidly than the food supply does, since population has the potential for growing geometrically 5- arithmetically, by adding one acre at a time. - This led to his conclusion that in the natural order of things, population growth will outstrip the food supply, and the lack of food will ultimately put a stop to the increase of people (

The Theory of the Demographic Transition 1- demographic transition theory 2- Warren Thompson gathered data from "certain countries" for the period 1908-27 and showed that the countries fell into three main groups, according to their patterns of population growth: 3- Frank Notestein (1945) picked up the threads of his thesis and provided labels for the three types of growth patterns that Thompson had simply called A, B, and C. Notestein called the Group A ----, the Group B ----, and the Group C ---- 4- The term population explosion, alluded to by Davis, refers to the phase that Notestein called ----. Thus was born the term demographic transition.

1- it described the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates, with an interstitial spurt in growth rates leading to a larger population at the end of the transition than there had been at the start 2- - Group A (northern and western Europe and the United States): very high rates of natural increase to having very low rates of increase - Group B (Italy, Spain, and the "Slavic" peoples of central Europe): the death rate will decline as rapidly or even more rapidly than the birth rate for some time yet - Group C (the rest of the world): w little evidence of control over either births or deaths 3- - pattern incipient decline - pattern transitional growth - pattern high growth potential 4- transitional growth

1- The issue of population growth was more than idle speculation, because we 2- The rising interest in population encouraged the publication of two important essays on population size 3- The population had, in fact, increased during the Mercantilist era, although probably not as a result of any of the policies put forth by its adherents. However, it was less obvious that the population was ex- 4- One of the more famous reactions against Mercantilism was that mounted in the middle of the eighteenth century by François Quesnay - Whereas Mercantilists argued that wealth depends on the number of people, Quesnay turned that around and argued that 5- The essence of Quesnay's view

1- know with a fair amount of certainty that the population of England, for example, doubled during the eighteenth century 2- one by David Hume (1752 [1963]) and the other by Robert Wallace (1761 [1969]), 3- better off ex- Rather, the Mercantilist period had become associated with a rising level of poverty 4- the number of people depends on the means of subsistence (a general term for level of living). 5-called physiocratic thought, was that land, not people, is the real source of wealth of a nation. - In other words, population went from being an independent variable, causing change in society, to a dependent variable, being altered by societal change.

1- In the ----, the population continues to grow quickly, especially in absolute terms, not just in terms of rates of growth. 2- Yet, in the ---population growth has slowed, stopped, or in some places even started to decline. 3- ---tend to have high proportions of people who are young, poor, prone to disease, and susceptible to political instability. The countries that are ---tend to have populations that are older, richer, and healthier, and these are the nations that are politically more stable

1- less developed nations 2- more developed countries 3- more rapidly growing countries , growing slowly or not at all

1- What kinds of ideas and attitudes might encourage people to rethink how many children they ought to have? - To answer this kind of question we must shift our focus from the 2- A popular individual-level perspective is that of --- - The essence of RAT is that human behavior is the result of --- 3- The process of modernization (---changes) eventually results in the tearing apart of large, extended family units into smaller, nuclear units that are economically and emotionally self-sufficient (---changes) 4- As the ---reverses and parents begin to spend their income on children, rather than deriving income from them, the economic value of children vanishes 5- modernization reduces the demand for children and so fertility falls—if people are rational economic creatures, then this is what should happen. - But --- 6- One strength of reformulating the demographic transition is that 7-

1- macro (societal) level to the micro (individual) level and ask how people actually respond to the social and economic changes taking place around them. 2- rational choice theory (RAT) - individuals making calculated cost-benefit analyses about how to act and what to do. 3- the macro-level , micro-level 4- wealth flow 5- the real world is more complex, and the diffusion of ideas can shape fertility (and other demographic) behavior along with, or even in the absence of, the usual signs of modernization. 6- nearly all other perspectives can find a home here 7-

1- How Does Demography Connect the Dots? and ex 2- The changes taking place all over the world in family structure are not the result of a breakdown of social norms so much as they are ...

1- nearly everything is connected to demography; demography affects nearly every facet of your life in some way or another. ex: Population change is one of the prime forces behind social and technological change all over the world. 2- the natural consequence of societies adapting to the demographic changes of people living longer with fewer children in a world where urban living and migration are vastly more common than ever before

Geographic Distribution of the World's Population 1- The five largest countries in the world account for 2- These countries include 3-

1- nearly half the world's population (an estimated 47 percent in 2015) but only 21 percent of the world's land surface. 2- China, India, the United States, Indonesia, and Brazil 3-

Neo-Malthusians 1-Those who criticize Malthus's insistence on the value of moral restraint, while accepting many of his other conclusions, are typically known as 2- Specifically, neo-Malthusians favor 3- Eventually, the widespread adoption of birth control meant that fertility could be 4- As I noted earlier, part of Malthus's significance lies in the storm of controversy his theories stimulated. Particularly vigorous in their attacks on 5-

1- neo-Malthusians 2- contraception rather than simple reliance on moral restraint. 3- controlled within marriage, allowing couples to respond to economic changes in ways that were not anticipated by Malthus's principle of population 4- Malthus were Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels 5-

Consequences of Population Growth 1- Marx and Engels especially quarreled with the Malthusian idea that resources could 2- Engels argued in 1865 that whatever population pressure existed in society was really pressure against 3- Instead, they said, poverty is the result of a - Implicit in the writings of Marx and Engels is the idea that the normal consequence of 4- Furthermore, Marx argued that capitalism worked by using the labor of the - Thus, the poor were not poor because they overran the food supply, but 5-

1- not grow as rapidly as population, since they saw no reason to suspect that science and technology could not increase the availability of food and other goods at least as quickly as the population grew 2- the means of employment rather than against the means of subsistence 3- poorly organized society, especially a capitalist society - population growth should be a significant increase in production 4- working classes to earn profits to buy machines that would replace the laborers, which, in turn, would lead to unemployment and poverty - only because capitalists had first taken away part of their wages and then taken away their very jobs and replaced them with machines 5-

1- Globalization of the labor market exists, in essence, because... 2- The likelihood goes up with two other demographically related factors:

1- of the nature of world demographic trends. At the same time, the sheer volume of population growth in less developed countries is not a guarantee that jobs will head their way from richer countries. 2- (1) declining fertility; and (2) increasing education

How Many People Have Ever Lived? 1- our current contribution to history's total represents 2- (T/F) - The fact that we have gone from 1 billion to 7 billion in little more than 200 years indicates that majority of people ever born must surely still be alive. 3- Keyfitz's formulas estimate the number of people who have ever lived, assuming conservatively that we started with two people (call them "Adam and Eve" if you'd like) 200,000 years ago 4- You can appreciate that the number of people ever born is influenced by 5- The vast increase in numbers is not the only important demographic change to occur in the past few hundred years.

1- only a relatively small fraction of all people who have ever lived. 2- False 3- The results of these calculations suggest that a total of 62.6 billion people have been born, of whom the 7.3 billion estimated to be alive in 2015 constitute 11.7 percent - There is no reasonable calculation, however, that generates a value much higher than 11.7, so we can safely assume that only a small fraction of humans ever born are now alive, although the percentage is constantly getting higher because of our ever larger population size. 4-the length of time you believe humans have been around, and by the estimate of the birth rate 5- There has also been a massive redistribution of population

Avoiding the Consequences 1- Borrowing from John Locke, Malthus argued that "the endeavor to avoid 2- You will recall that Condorcet had suggested the possibility of birth control as a preventive check, but Malthus objected to this solution: 3- So the only way to break the cycle is to change human nature - He saw that as impossible, though, 4- To summarize, the major consequence of population growth, according to Malthus, is 5- Within that poverty, though, is the stimulus for action that can lift people out of misery. So,

1- pain rather than the pursuit of pleasure is the great stimulus to action in life" 2- "To remove the difficulty in this way, will, surely in the opinion of most men, be to destroy that virtue, and purity of manners, which the advocates of equality, and of the perfectibility of man, profess to be the end and object of their views" 3- Malthus felt that if everyone shared middle-class values, the problem would solve itself - however, not everyone has the talent to be a virtuous, industrious, middle-class success story, but if most people at least tried, poverty would be reduced considerably. 4- poverty 5- if people remain poor, it is their own fault for not trying to do something about it. - For that reason, Malthus was opposed to the English Poor Laws (welfare benefits for the poor), because he felt they would actually serve to perpetuate misery.

Causes of Population Growth 1- Neither Marx nor Engels ever directly addressed the issue of why and how 2- they were in favor of equal rights for men and women and saw no harm in 3- they were skeptical of the ---stated by Malthus that 4- t. The basic Marxian perspective is that 5- - For capitalism, ---, - whereas for socialism, 6- if Malthus was right about his "pretended 'natural law of population'" (Marx 1890 [1906]:680), then

1- populations grew - They seem to have had little quarrel with Malthus on this point 2- preventing birth 3- eternal or natural laws of nature as - (that population tends to outstrip resources), preferring instead to view human activity as the product of a particular social and economic environment. 4- each society at each point in history has its own law of population that determines the consequences of population growth 5- - the consequences are overpopulation and poverty - population growth is readily absorbed by the economy with no side effects 6- Marx's theory would be wrong.

Consequences of Population Growth 1- Malthus believed that a natural consequence of population growth was 2- This is the logical end result of his arguments that 3- In his analysis, Malthus turned the argument of Adam Smith upside down. Instead of population growth depending on the demand for labor, as Smith (and the physiocrats) argued, Malthus believed that 4- Malthus believed that this cycle of increased food resources, leading to population growth, leading to too many people for available resources, leading then back to poverty, was part of 5- In this way, he essentially blamed poverty on

1- poverty 2- (1) people have a natural urge to reproduce, and (2) the increase in the food supply cannot keep up with population growth. 3- the urge to reproduce always forces population pressure to precede the demand for labor. - Thus, "overpopulation" (as measured by the level of unemployment) would force wages down to the point where people could not afford to marry and raise a family. 4- a natural law of population. - Each increase in the food supply only meant that eventually more people would live in poverty 5- the poor themselves

Premodern Population Doctrines pt.2 1- The Middle Ages in Europe, which followed the decline of Rome and its transformation from a pagan to a Christian society, were characterized by a combination of both 2- The early and highly influential Christian leader, mystic, and writer Augustine (a.d. 354-430) believed 3- The time between the end of the Roman Empire (fifth century a.d.) and the Renaissance (fifteenth century a.d.) was an economically stagnant, fatalistic period of European history - While Europe muddled through the Middle Ages, Islam (which had emerged in the seventh century a.d.) was expanding throughout the Mediterranean. - Muslims took control of southern Italy and the Iberian peninsula and, under the Ottoman Empire, controlled the Balkans and the rest of southeastern Europe 4- By the fourteenth century, one of the great Arab historians and philosophers, Ibn Khaldun, was in Tunis writing about the benefits of a growing population

1- pronatalist and antinatalist Christian doctrines. 2- - that abstinence was the best way to deal with sexuality (an antinatalist view), - but the second-best state was marriage, which existed for the purpose of procreation (a pronatalist view). 3- Europe's reaction to this situation was the Crusades, a series of wars launched by Christians to wrestle control away from Muslims - these expeditions were largely unsuccessful from a military perspective, but they did put Europeans into contact with the Muslim world, which ultimately led to the Renaissance—the rebirth of Europe 4- n. In particular, he argued that population growth creates the need for specialization of occupations, which in turn leads to higher incomes, concentrated especially in cities:

Environmental Degradation 1- Caused by --- 2- - ◦Atmosphere: - ◦Hydrosphere: - ◦Lithosphere: 3 - ◦How can we live in a sustainable manner? - ◦Is it possible to maintain our current standard of living by using less resources per capita (per person)? 4- - ◦Demographic Fatigue: - ◦--of developed nations to the population problems in developing nations. - ◦Mostly hear about --- and --- - ◦In this inter-connected world, there is no "---." In some ways were are all in it.

1- rampant use of earth's resources - due to demand, consumerism, increasing pop 2- - Ozone layer depletion, global warming - contamination of water sources - leaching of toxic waste into topsoil, desertification, deforestation 3- - using less reduces standard of living - 4- - becoming numb to population issues in other nations and not being able to relate to it as the population problems in developed nations are different. - Desensitization - population decline here (US) and problems of immigration. - their problem

1- Mill argued that it was fear of social slippage that motivated people to limit fertility below the level that Malthus had expected. Dumont went beyond that to suggest that 2- He believed that ---would undercut the desire for upward social mobility and would thus stimulate the birth rate 3- Dumont was concerned primarily with the causes of ---, focusing mainly on the --- 4- Émile Durkheim, based an entire social theory on the consequences of --- 5- Durkheim proposed that "the ---varies in direct ratio with the volume and density of societies, and, if it progresses in a continuous manner in the course of social development, it is because societies become regularly --- and more ---" 6- Durkheim proceeded to explain that population growth leads to greater societal specialization because 7- in industrialized societies there is a lot of differentiation; that is, there is an increasingly long list of occupations and social classes. Why is this?

1- social aspiration was a root cause of a slowdown in population growth 2- socialism 3- population growth, birth rate 4- population growth. 5- division of labor , denser and more voluminous 6- the struggle for existence is more acute when there are more people. 7- The answer is in the volume and density of the population. Growth creates competition for society's resources, and in order to improve their advantage in the struggle, people specialize.

1- The basic characteristic of a youth bulge is that 2- children who resist the army recruiters may find themselves sold into slavery, which is part of a larger global problem of child trafficking (International Labour Organization 2013). This kind of abuse of children is not caused by demographic trends, but

1- t a large fraction of the total population falls into the age range of approximately 15 to 29—old enough to be considered a young adult, but still young enough not to necessarily have settled into a job and family. We might think of this as an "incendiary" age group. 2- the demographic structure of society contributes to the problem by creating a situation where disproportionate numbers of children are available to be exploited.

Premodern Population Doctrines pt.3 1- an influential Dominican monk, Thomas Aquinas, argued that marriage and family building were not inferior to celibacy, thus implicitly promoting the idea that 2- The seventeenth and eighteenth centuries witnessed an historically unprecedented trade (the so-called Columbian Exchange) 3- This rise in trade, prompted at least in part by 4- Mercantilism maintained that - The catch (however) 5- Mercantilist writers sought to encourage it by a number of means, including

1- t population growth is an inherently good thing. 2- of food, manufactured goods, people, and disease between the Americas and most of the rest of the world 3- population growth, generated the doctrine of Mercantilism among the new nation-states of Europe 4- a nation's wealth was determined by the amount of precious metals it had in its possession, which were acquired by exporting more goods than were imported, with the difference (the profit) being stored in precious metals. - The catch here was that a nation had to have things to produce to sell to others, and the idea was that the more workers you had, the more you could produce. - Thus population growth was seen as essential to an increase in national revenue, 5- penalties for non-marriage, encouragements to get married, lessening penalties for illegitimate births, limiting out-migration (except to their own colonies), and promoting immigration of productive laborers. - It is important to keep in mind that these doctrines were concerned with the wealth and welfare of a specific country, not all of human society.

1- Mill was convinced that an important ingredient in the transformation to a non-growing population is that 2- Mill, like Marx, was a champion of equal rights for both sexes, He reasoned further that a system of national education for poor children would provide them with 3- Arsène Dumont was a late-nineteenth-century French demographer who felt he had discovered a new principle of population that he called " - what is it - where did the idea come from 4- To ascend the social hierarchy often requires that sacrifices be made, and Dumont argued that

1- t women do not want as many children as men do, and if they are allowed to voice their opinions, the birth rate will decline 2- he "common sense" (as Mill put it) to refrain from having too many children. 3- "social capillarity" - refers to the desire of people to rise on the social scale, to increase their individuality as well as their personal wealth - The concept is drawn from an analogy to a liquid rising into the narrow neck of a laboratory flask. The flask is like the hierarchical structure of most societies, broad at the bottom and narrowing as you near the top 4- having few or no children was the price many people paid to get ahead

The Prelude to Malthus 1- Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat, marquis de Condorcet, belied that 2- Condorcet thus saw prosperity and population growth 3- Godwin's Enquiry Concerning Political Justice and Its Influences on Morals and Happiness appeared in its first edition in 1793, revealing his ideas that scientific progress would enable the food supply to grow far beyond the levels of his day, and that such prosperity 4- Thomas Robert Malthus - Although he wanted to be able to embrace such an openly optimistic philosophy of life, he felt that

1- that technological progress has no limits: "With all this progress in industry and welfare which establishes a happier proportion between men's talents and their needs, each successive generation will have larger possessions, either as a result of this progress or through the preservation of the products of industry, and so, as a consequence of the physical constitution of the human race, the number of people will increase" 2- increasing hand in hand, and if the limits to growth were ever reached, the final solution would be birth control 3- would not lead to overpopulation because people would deliberately limit their sexual expression and procreation. - Furthermore, he believed that most of the problems of the poor were due not to overpopulation but to the inequities of the social institutions, especially greed and accumulation of property 4- intellectually he had to reject it. In doing so, he unleashed a controversy about population growth and its consequences that rages to this very day

Critique of Marx 1- Socialist countries have had trouble because of 2- Unfortunately, he offered no guidelines for the transition period. At best, Marx implied that the socialist law of population should be the antithesis of the capitalist law 3- Moreover, birth rates dropped to such low levels throughout Marxist Eastern Europe in the years leading up to the breakup of the Soviet Union that it was no longer possible to claim 4-

1- the lack of political direction offered by the Marxian notion that different stages of social development produce different relationships between population growth and economic development. 2- ex: If the birth rate were low under capitalism, then the assumption was that it should be high under socialism; if abortion seemed bad for a capitalist society, it must be good for a socialistic society. 3- (as Marx had done) that low birth rates were bourgeois. 4-

How Fast Is the World's Population Growing Now? 1- The rate of population growth is obviously important (it is the "explosive" part), yet 2-

1- the numbers are what we actually cope with. 2-

Redistribution of the World's Population through Migration 1- As populations have grown unevenly in different areas of the world, - This pattern is predictable enough that we label it the 2- In earlier decades, the shortage of jobs generally occurred when the population grew dense in a particular region, and people then 3- European Expansion - Before the great expansion of European people and culture, Europeans represented about 4- "South" to "North" Migration

1- the pressures or desires to migrate have also grown - migration transition component of the overall demographic transition 2- felt pressured to migrate to some other less populated area, much as high-pressure storm fronts move into low-pressure weather systems. 3- Beginning in the fourteenth century, migration out of Europe began gaining momentum, revolutionizing the entire human population in the process - 18 percent of the world's population, with almost 90 percent of them living in Europe itself. 4- Since the 1930s, the outward expansion of Europeans has ceased. Until then, European populations had been growing more rapidly than the populations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, but since World War II that trend has been reversed. - The less developed areas now have by far the most rapidly growing populations, - For the past several decades there has been far more migration from less developed countries (the "South") to developed areas (the "North") than the reverse.

1- Edmund Halley (of Halley's comet fame) became the first scientist to elaborate on the 2- Although Halley, like Graunt, was a Londoner, 3- Then, in the eighteenth century, Süssmilch built on the work of Graunt and others and added his own analyses to the observation of the - His view, widely disseminated throughout Europe, was that - He believed that indefinite improvements in agriculture and industry would 4-

1- the probabilities of death. 2- he came across a list of births and deaths kept for the city of Breslau in Silesia (now Poland) 3- regular patterns of marriage, birth, and death in Prussia and believed that he saw in these the divine hand of God ruling human society (Hecht 1987), in much the same way that people are fascinated by patterns such as the Fibonacci sequence - a larger population was always better than a smaller one, and, in direct contradistinction to Plato, he valued quantity over quality. - postpone overpopulation so far into the future that it wouldn't matte 4-

1- Demography is defined as.... 2- The term itself comes from... 3- Guillard defined demography as...

1- the scientific study of human populations 2- the Greek root demos, which means people, and was coined in 1855 by Achille Guillard, who used it in the title of his book Elements de Statistique Humaine ou Démographie Comparée 3- "the mathematical knowledge of populations, their general movements, and their physical, civil, intellectual and moral state"

The Power of Doubling—How Fast Can Populations Grow 1- Human populations, like all living things, have the capacity for exponential increase, which can be expressed nicely by 2- Early on in human history it took several thousand years for the population to double to a size eventually reaching 14 million. From there it took a thousand years to nearly double to 27 million and another thousand to nearly double to 50 million. - The most recent doubling (from 3.5 to 7.0 billion) took only about 44 years - Will we double again in the future?

1- the time it takes to double in population size 2- Probably not. Indeed we should hope not because we don't really know at this point how we will feed, clothe, educate, and find jobs for the 7 billion alive now, much less the additional 2 billion or more who are expected between now and later in this century

The Malthusian Perspective 1- The Malthusian perspective derives from 2- "I have read some of the speculations on the perfectibility of man and society, with great pleasure. I have been warmed and delighted with the enchanting picture which they hold forth. I ardently wish for such happy improvements. But I see great, and, to my understanding, unconquerable difficulties in the way to them" - These "difficulties," of course, are the problems posed by his now famous 3- Malthus believed that he had 4-

1- the writings of Thomas Robert Malthus, an English clergyman and subsequently a college professor. 2- principle of population. - First, that food is necessary to the existence of man. - Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is necessary, and will remain nearly in its present state. . . . - Assuming then, my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. - Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio 3- demolished the utopian optimism by suggesting that the laws of nature, operating through the principle of population, essentially prescribed poverty for a certain segment of humanity 4-

The Relationship of Population to Rights of Women 1- There is probably no more important demographic issue than the rights of women

1- women inherently have higher life expectancy than men, unless society intervenes to undermine that biological advantage 2- The other biological issue—reproduction— rears its head when society seeks to prevent women from controlling their own reproductive behavior, 3- Any group that oppresses women and suppresses their contributions will have a distinctively unfavorable demographic profile and will almost certainly suffer in terms of overall well-being.

1- Reports of declining birth rates in many parts of the world notwithstanding, it is a fact that the number of people added to the world each day is higher today than at any time in history. Moreover, we now live in a .... 2- Our partial mastery of the environment is, indeed, key to understanding why the population is growing, because... 3- Although the rapid, dramatic drop in mortality all over the world is certainly one of humanity's greatest triumphs, we are finding that no good deed goes unpunished, even such an altruistic one as conquering (or at least delaying) death. Because...

1- world crowded not only with people but also with contradictions 2- we have learned how to conquer more and more of the diseases that once routinely killed us. 3- the birth rate almost never goes down in tandem with the decline in the death rate, the result is rapid population growth. This relentless increase in numbers continues to fuel both environmental damage and social upheaval.

1- a demographic perspective 2- A demographic perspective will guide you through the sometimes tangled relationships between population factors (such as 3- There are actually two levels of population theory

1- —a way of relating basic information to theories about how the world operates demographically 2- size and growth, geographic distribution, age structure, and other sociodemographic characteristics) and the rest of what is going on in society 3- - At the core of demographic analysis is the technical side of the field—the mathematical and biomedical theories that predict the kinds of changes taking place in the biological components of demography: fertility, mortality, and the distribution of a population by age and sex - demographic processes to the real events of the social world. The linkage of the core with its outer wrapping is what produces a demographic perspective

ch2 Main Points

1. During the first 90 percent of human existence, the population of the world had grown only to the size of today's New York City. 2. Between 1750 and 1950, the world's population mushroomed from 800 million to 2.5 billion, and since 1950 it has expanded to more than 7 billion. 3. Despite the fact that humans have been around for hundreds of thousands of years, more than one in ten people ever born is currently alive. 4. Early population growth was slow not because birth rates were low but because death rates were high; on the other hand, continuing population increases are due to dramatic declines in mortality without a matching decline in fertility. 5. World population growth has been accompanied by migration from rapidly growing areas into less rapidly growing regions. Initially, that meant an outward expansion of the European population, but more recently it has meant migration from less developed to more developed nations. 6. Migration has also involved the shift of people from rural to urban areas, and urban regions on average are currently growing more rapidly than ever before in history. 7. Although migration is crucial to the demographic history of the United States and Canada, both countries have grown largely as a result of natural increase— the excess of births over deaths—after the migrants arrived. 8. At the time of the American Revolution, fertility levels in North America were among the highest in the world. Now they are low, although not as low as in Europe. 9. The world's 10 most populous countries are the People's Republic of China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, and Japan. Together they account for 59 percent of the world's population. 10. Almost all of the population growth in the world today is occurring in the less developed nations, leading to an increase in the global demographic contrasts among countries

pt5. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 10- India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh 11- Indonesia and the Philippines

10- The infant mortality rate of 44 per 1,000 is higher than the world average, but it is also far lower than it was just a few decades ago. - nearly one in four people being added to the world's population annually is from India. - India's population is culturally diverse, and this is reflected in rather dramatic geographic differences in fertility and rates of population growth within the country. - both Pakistan and Bangladesh have grown so much since independence in 1947 that, were they still one country, they would be the third most populous nation in the world. 11- A former Dutch colony, it has experienced a substantial decline in fertility in recent years, but Indonesian women nonetheless are bearing an above-average level of 2.6 children each - For several decades, Indonesia has dealt with population growth through a program of transmigration, in which people have been sent from the more populous to the less populous islands. These largely forested outer islands have suffered environmentally from the human encroachment, without necessarily dealing successfully with Indonesia's basic dilemma, which is how to raise its burgeoning young adult population out of poverty - The Philippines has even higher fertility than Indonesia (an average of 3.0 children per woman), but also experiences more outmigration than does Indonesia. - This may relieve some of the pressure felt in the Philippines by the fact of having a large youth population, but the country is still struggling under the weight of its demographic growth. - Although the country is predominantly Catholic, concentrated especially in the northern Luzon islands, there have long been clashes with Muslims in the southern group of islands comprising Mindanao. - These ethno-religious differences are reflected in the demographic trends, with lower fertility and child mortality in the Luzon region than in the Mindanao region.

pt6. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 12- Vietnam and Thailand 13- Iran

12- Vietnam, in particular, has nearly doubled in population since the Vietnam War ended in 1975. - That was largely a result of a swift drop in mortality unaccompanied immediately by a decline in fertility, thus leading to a huge youth bulge. - Recognizing the threat to development, Vietnam introduced a national family planning policy in 1988 encouraging (although not forcing) couples to have only one or two children - Fertility and mortality both dropped sooner in Thailand than in Vietnam. As early as the 1990 13- Like Vietnam and Thailand, it has experienced a very rapid fertility decline—from an average of 6 children per woman as recently as 1985 to below replacement level today -

pt7. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 14- East Asia 15- China 16- Japan

14- Overall, East Asia includes more than 20 percent of the world's total population, but its share is diminishing as China continues to brake its population growth and as Japan teeters on the edge of depopulation 15- China's share of the world's total population actually peaked in the middle of the nineteenth century. - Fertility decline actually began in China's cities in the 1960s and spread rapidly throughout the rest of the country in the 1970s, when the government introduced the family planning program known as wan xi shao, meaning "later" (marriage), "longer" (birth interval), "fewer" (children) - In 1979, this was transformed into the now famous (if not infamous) one-child policy, but fertility was already on its way down by that time - Despite its low birth rate, the number of births each year in China is nearly twice the number of deaths just because China is paying for its previous high birth rate. - China has famously used its "demographic dividend" (a bulge of adults unencumbered by a lot of children due to the rapid decline in fertility) to create jobs and grow its economy. -Thus, population growth remains a serious concern in China, but the concern is now turning from the young population to the rapidly increasing number and proportion of older Chines 16- Population size probably peaked in Japan in 2010 and is now slowly on the way down. - The decline is actually slower than it might be due to the fact Japan has the lowest level of mortality in the world - This very low mortality rate is accompanied by very low fertility. -

pt8. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 17- Oceania

17- Its population of 39 million is just slightly more than Canada's, and is less than 1 percent of the world's total. - In a pattern repeated elsewhere in the world, the lowest birth rates and lowest death rates (and thus the lowest rates of population growth) are found in countries whose populations are largely European-origin (Australia and New Zealand, in this case); - whereas the countries with a higher fraction of the population of indigenous origin have higher birth rates, higher mortality, and substantially higher rates of population growth (exemplified in Oceania by Papua New Guinea) - Much of Australia's population growth is fueled by immigration,

pt2. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 3- Canada 4- Mexico and Central America

3- In the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, the high fertility of French speakers in Canada was legendary and they maintained higher-than-average levels of fertility - until the 1960s (Beaujot 1978), probably due to the strong influence of the Catholic Church in Québec (McQuillan 2004) - In the rest of Canada, fertility began to drop in the nineteenth century and, as in the United States, reached very low levels in the 1930s before rebounding after World War II in a baby boom - This boom was similarly followed by a baby bust and then a small echo of the baby boom - Just as fertility is lower in Canada than in the United States, so is mortality, with life expectancy in Canada about two years longer than in the United States. - In both of these respects the demographic profile of Canada is more like that of Europe than of the United States. However, when it comes to immigration, Canada more closely reflects the Northern American history 4- Mexico and the countries of Central America have also been growing since the end of World War II as a result of rapidly dropping death rates and birth rates that have only more recently begun to drop. - Within a relatively short time after Europeans arrived, however, the population of several million was cut by as much as 80 percent due to disease and violence. - since the 1930s the death rate has dropped dramatically, and life expectancy in Mexico is now 79 years for women, - For several decades, this decline in mortality was not accompanied by a change in the birth rate, and the result was a massive explosion in the size of the Mexican population - In the 1970s, the birth rate finally began to decline in Mexico, encouraged by a change in government policy that began promoting small families and the provision of family planning. - The other countries of Central America have experienced similar patterns of rapidly declining mortality, leading to population growth and its attendant pressures for migration to other countries where the opportunities might be better.

pt 2. Riding the Age Wave 3- The changing age structure also has an obvious impact on the educational system. 4- The same age structure changes that influence the educational system also have an impact on the health care industry. 5- Crime, like health, is closely tied to the age and sex structure of a community.

3- Public elementary and secondary school districts cannot readily recruit students or market their services to new prospects; they rise and fall on demographic currents that determine enrollment and the characteristics of students, such as English proficiency, that can affect resource demands - Demographic conditions can also affect a school district in ways that go beyond the numbers. 4- Over the years, hospitals and other health care providers have learned that they have to reposition themselves in a classic marketing sense to meet the needs of a society that is changing demographically 5- Young people, especially young males, are more likely to commit crimes than anyone else. Therefore, it is not a surprise that the crime rate in the United States has been declining roughly in tandem with the decline in the percentage of the population that is comprised of teenagers and young adults.

Critique of Malthus pt. 2 4- Thus, Malthus either failed to see or refused to acknowledge that 5- The crucial part of Malthus's ratio of population growth to food increase was that food (including both plants and nonhuman animals) would not grow exponentially, whereas humans could grow like that. Yet 6- Malthus's argument that poverty is an inevitable result of population growth is also open to scrutiny - ex 7- Even if we were to ignore this logical inconsistency, there are problems with Malthus's belief that the Poor Laws contributed to the misery of the poor by discouraging them from exercising prudence 8- the main charge against him must be that he was a bad observer of his fellow human beings"

4- technological progress was possible, and that its end result was a higher standard of living, not a lower one. 5- when Charles Darwin acknowledged that his concept of the survival of the fittest was inspired by Malthus's essay, he implicitly rejected this central tenet of Malthus's argument. 6- For one thing, his writing reveals a certain circularity in logic - In Malthus's view, a laborer could achieve a higher standard of living only by being prudent and refraining from marriage until he could afford it, but Malthus also believed that you could not expect prudence from a laborer until he had attained a higher standard of living 7- Historical evidence has revealed that between 1801 and 1835 those English parishes that administered Poor Law allowances did not have higher birth, marriage, or total population growth rates than those in which Poor Law assistance was not available 8- Schweber (2006) has argued that one of Guillard's motivations in trying to develop a new discipline of demography was to pressure French academics to see that statistical analyses of births and deaths would show that Malthus was wrong about his claim that population growth inevitably led to poverty. - Once again, the power of Malthusian thought lies partly in the strength of opposition that he aroused

pt3. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 5- South America 6- Europe

5- Between the 1960s and the 1990s, Brazil experienced a reduction in fertility described as "nothing short of spectacular" - . For many years, the influence of the Catholic Church was strong enough to cause the government to forbid the dissemination of contraceptive information or devices, but economic development beginning in the1960s seems clearly to have encouraged a decline in fertility 6- Europe as a region is on the verge of depopulating. This is largely because its two largest nations, Russia and Germany, currently have more deaths than births and neither country is taking in enough immigrants to compensate for that fact - When East Germany was reunited with West Germany, the combined Germany inherited the East's dismal demographics and that largely explains why Germany teeters on depopulation - Russia's situation is especially noteworthy because depopulation is not just a result of below replacement fertility. Until very recently, life expectancy for males was actually declining, signaling major societal stresses - What is surprising, however, is how low the birth rate has fallen. It is especially low in the Mediterranean countries of Italy and Spain, where fertility has dropped well below replacement level—in predominantly Catholic societies where fertility for most of history has been higher than in the rest of Europe

ch 2 Summary and Conclusion 1- High death rates kept the number of people in the world from growing rapidly until approximately the time of the Industrial Revolution 2- Then improved living conditions, public health measures, and, more recently, medical advances dramatically accelerated the pace of growth 3- As populations have grown, the pressure or desire to migrate has also increased 4- The vast European expansion into less developed areas of the world, which began in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries but accelerated in the nineteenth century, is a notable illustration of massive migration and population redistribution 5- Today migration patterns have shifted, and people are mainly moving from less developed to more developed nations. Closely associated with migration and population density is the urban revolution—that is, the movement from rural to urban areas.

6- The current world situation finds China and India to be the most populous countries, followed by the United States, Indonesia, and Brazil 7- Dealing with the pressure of an expanding young population is the task of developing countries; whereas more developed countries, along with China, have aging populations and are coping with the fact that the demand for labor in their economies may have to be met by immigrants from more rapidly growing countries. 8- Demographic dynamics represent the leading edge of social change in the modern world. 9- In order to cope with these demographic underpinnings of our lives, we need to have a demographic perspective that allows us to sort out the causes and consequences of population change.

pt4. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 7- Northern Africa and Western Asia 8- Sub-Saharan Africa 9- South and Southeast Asia

7- With its rate of growth of 1.9 percent per year, Egypt's population would double in 36 years without a significant drop in the birth rate, and this rapid growth constantly hampers even the most ambitious strategies for economic growth and development - this is almost certainly a key reason for the political turmoil in Egypt - It is the size and rate of increase in the youthful population that has been especially explosive throughout northern Africa and the Arab societies of western Asia - The economies within the region have not been able to keep up with the demand for jobs, and this has produced a generation of young people who, despite being better educated than their parents, face an uncertain future in an increasingly crowded world - The demographic situation has fueled discontent and has almost certainly contributed to the rise of radical Islam and terrorism 8- All three of these countries (as well as their neighbors) have incredibly high levels of fertility, especially considering the fact that death rates are much lower than they used to be - Not surprisingly, these high birth rates, in combination with declining infant and child mortality, produce young populations 9- South and Southeast Asia as a region is home to 2.4 billion people, one-third of the world's total.

Ch 1 Summary and Conclusion - It is an often-repeated phrase that "demography is destiny," - the goal of this book is to help you better understand the changes occurring all over the world - Demographic analysis helps you do this by seeking out both the causes and the consequences of population change - The absolute size of population change is very important, as is the rate of change, and of course, the direction (growth or decline). - The past 200 years have witnessed almost nonstop growth in most places in the world, but the rate is slowing down, even though we are continuing to add nearly 9,000 people to the world's total every hour of every day. - You may not realize it, but everything happening around you is influenced by demographic events close to you as well as in faraway places. Not just to the big things like regional conflict, globalization, climate change, exhaustion of resources, and massive migration movements, but even to little things that affect you directly, like the kinds of stores that operate in your neighborhood, the goods that are stocked on your local supermarket shelf, the availability of a hospital emergency room, and the jobs aimed at college graduates in your community - Influential decision makers in government agencies, social and health organizations, and business firms now routinely base their actions at least partly on their assessment of the changing demographics of an area - So, both locally and globally, demographic forces are at work to change and challenge your future

Ch1 Main Points 1. Demography is concerned with everything that influences or can be influenced by population size, growth or decline, processes, spatial distribution, structure, and characteristics. 2. Almost everything in your life has demographic underpinnings that you should understand. 3. Demography is a force in the world that influences every improvement in human well-being that the world has witnessed over the past few hundred years. 4. The past was very different from the present in large part because of demographic changes taking place all over the globe; and the future will be different for the same reasons. 5. The cornerstones of population studies are the processes of mortality (a deadly subject), fertility (a well-conceived topic), and migration (a moving experience). 6. Demographic change demands that societies adjust, thus forcing social change, but different societies will respond differently to these challenges, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse. 7. Examples of global issues that have deep and important demographic components include the relationship of population to food, water, and energy resources, as well as housing and infrastructure, and environmental degradation. 8. Population is also connected to social and political dynamics such as regional conflict, often exacerbated by youth bulges, as well as globalization, the need for immigrants created by the phenomenon of "demographic fit" and then the backlash against those immigrants. 9. Changes in the age structure are the most obvious ways in which demography forces societal change and, at the same time, creates business opportunities— exemplified by the idea of "riding the age wave." 10. A key to all demographic trends in the world is the status of women.

CHAPTER 3 1- 100% enumeration 2- True 3- undercounted 4- vital events. 5- when response errors occur because of incorrect interpretation of question

Demographic Perspectives 1- The US Census is _____ _______ of the population. 2- In the US, a person is counted based on their usual place of residence. 3- Minority population and college students are typically ____. 4- In demography, events such as births, deaths, and marriage are called: 5- Content error usually occurs when:

CHAPTER 2

Global Population Trends

Lecture 2/2

Global Population: - We will begin with the current state of the global population, where you will learn about some key terms such as carrying capacity, population explosion, and more. - We will learn about what led to the rapid increase in global population tracing back to the Industrial Revolution. And then, we will learn about why and how population redistributed around the globe. - Here will will discuss the European expansion, which occurred in the past, and the migration from the global South to industrialized nations. - Finally, we will take up some specific geographic regions and elaborate on their population histories. These places are the United States, China, South Asia, and Mexico and Central America.

Over Time, Geometric Growth Overtakes Arithmetic Growth

If we start with 100 acres supporting a population of 100 people and then add 100 acres of cultivated land per decade (arithmetic growth) while the population is increasing by 3 percent per year (geometric growth), the result is a few decades of food surplus before population growth overtakes the increase in the acres under cultivation, producing a food deficit, or "misery," as Malthus called it

CHAPTER 1 1- Demography is the scientific study of the: 2- Population processes are: 3- In the United States, fertility levels have ____ between 1910 and 2010: 4- Europe's "demographic time-bomb" can be attributed to: 5- The world's population is growing at a rate that is much higher than it has ever been. 6- The number of people supported by available physical resources in a given area is called the: 7- In demography, "doubling time" is the: 8- South to North migration is movement of people from: 9- The population increase that occurred in the post World War II era is often referred to as: 10 - The One-child Policy of China was instituted to: 11- The fertility level in Mexico has steadily increased in the past several decades through 2015.

Introduction to Demography 1- population 2- fertility, mortality, migration 3- decreased 4- decades of fertility decline 5- false 6- carrying capacity 7- The time in which human population doubles in size 8= less developed nations to more developed nations 9- Baby Boom 10- reduce overall population growth 11- false

Lecture 1/2

Introduction to Population Dynamics - demography = The study of population - demography affects our lives with population growth affecting regional conflicts, increase immigration, affect globalization, and impact the environment negatively.

1- Modern demography is the study of the determinants and consequences of population change and is concerned with effectively everything that influences and can be influenced by:

● population size (how many people there are in a given place) ● population growth or decline (how the number of people in that place is changing over time) ● population processes (the levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and migration that are determining population size and change and that can be thought of as capturing life's three main moments: hatching, matching, and dispatching) ● population spatial distribution (where people are located and why) ● population structure (how many males and females there are of each age) ● population characteristics (what people are like in a given place, in terms of variables such as education, income, occupation, family and household relationships, immigrant and refugee status, and the many other characteristics that add up to who we are as individuals or groups)

Cohort Size Effects 1- People who share something in common represent a ---and in population studies we usually focus especially on people who share the same age (or at least age range) in common 2- cohorts represent a --- - This idea was first popularized by Norman Ryder several decades ago (Ryder 1965) with the concept of --- - what does it refer to 3- The ---hypothesis (also sometimes known as the relative income hypothesis) is based on the idea that the birth rate does not necessarily respond to absolute levels of economic well-being but rather to levels that are relative to those to which one is accustomed 4- Easterlin's thesis presents a model of society in which --- and ---are closely interrelated. - Economic changes produce demographic changes, which in turn produce economic changes, and so on. The idea of a demographic ---, which is at the core of Easterlin's thinking, is compelling, and relative cohort size is certainly a factor that will influence various kinds of social change 5- But what about the situation that prevails in an increasing number of countries with relatively small cohorts of young adults who are not responding as the Easterlin hypothesis would suggest?

1- cohort 2-potential force for change. - demographic metabolism. - This refers to the ongoing replacement of people at each age in every society. 3- Easterlin relative cohort size 4- demographic change and economic change - feedback cycle 5- Rather than marrying earlier and having more children, they are postponing marriage and having even fewer children. - one reaction to these unexpected trends is to suggest that parts of the world are experiencing something that goes beyond our ordinary ideas about the demographic transition