L1, L2, L3, L4

Demographic Perspectives/ CHAPTER 3

- LECTURE NOTES

1- Consequences of population growth: 2- Malthus argued that population increase occurs because of human being's ---. Population increase, according to Malthus, is not a response to ---. Thus, overpopulation exerts stress on resources, depresses wages, and increases demand for food, shelter, and other necessities. Hence, more ---needs to be opened up for cultivation to meet demands. Malthus, sees a constant tension between resources and population, with resources not being able to keep up with population growth. This would lead to ---, which Malthus sees as one of the major consequences of population growth. 3- Malthus' recommendation to avoid consequences of population growth 4- Malthus, is skeptical of individual's ability to take charge or control of their --- or ---. His idea of middle-class values are late --- or ---. He doubted people's ability to control urges to postpone sexual activity until marriage.

1- - Shortage of food supply - Need of more labor, land, food sources - Poverty 2- reproductive instinct - demand for labor - land - poverty 3- - postpone marriage & sexual activity - waaayyy back in the past - control family size - Individual responsibility - poor responsible for own poverty - controversial 4- destiny or urges - marriages or marry when economically viable

Population Types 1- There are three population types that are counted in a census: - ---: those who are present in a territory/country on the day of the census. If not present, then not counted. - ---: those who belong to a territory/country but do not have to be present on the day of the census. - ---: where one usually sleeps 2- Middle Eastern Gulf nations that have a presence of large numbers of foreign workers have a large ---population. 3- Mexico, from where migrants go to the US to work temporarily has a ---population that is larger than de facto population. 4- In the US, population is counted on the basis of ---, which is defined as where one usually sleeps. Thus, college students are counted at their ---. Those who do not have a "usual residence" such as homeless individuals or migratory workers are counted ---. On this basis, tourists and visitors from other countries are not counted in the US census even if they are present on the day of census. Applying the concept of usual residence, undocumented immigrants,—- counted in the census. 5- Those military personnel, who are stationed abroad, ---counted on the basis of the military base they belong to in the US. In 2001, North Carolina, that has several military bases, gained a seat in Congress based on the 2000 census because many military personnel based in NC were serving abroad.

1- - de facto - de jure - usual residence 2- de facto 3- de jure 4- usual residence - campus address - where they are found - are 5- are - at affiliated base

1- Critique of Malthus 2- Malthus was not very forward thinking and believed in ---; he was not aware of the ---taking place and did not realize its potential. He did not appreciate that food supply could keep up with population growth with ---. He, also, did not give enough credit to the ---because his expectation was that lay persons were not capable of rational behavior. He favored ---as the only check to reproduction and did not believe in ---as means to control birth. 3- Why is Malthus' perspective so important to the understanding the area of Population studies?

1- - technological advances - poverty ultimate consequence - moral restraint only preventive check 2- status quo - industrialization - agricultural advancements - common person - moral restraint - contraception 3- - Malthus provided launching pad for the understanding of population growth - His postulates stimulated critiques and debates on population - even today - His theory has not been empirically substantiated, but was significant.

Sample Surveys 1- There are two major difficulties with using data collected in the census, by the vital statistics registration system, or derived from administrative records: 2- For these two reasons, in addition to the cost of big data- collection schemes, sample surveys

1- (1) They are usually collected for purposes other than demographic analysis and thus do not necessarily reflect the theoretical concerns of demography; and (2) they are collected by many different people using many different methods and may be prone to numerous kinds of error. 2- are frequently used to gather demographic data.

1- Consequences of Population Growth 2- Marx believed that ----would increase food supply as fast as population growth. He argued that ---was not the consequence of population growth but a result of a poorly organized capitalist society. Poverty arises because workers do not get adequately ---for their work by owners. 3- Critique of Marx

1- - Increase in population = increase in productivity - Each worker produces more than s/he consumes - If social order disrupted, wealth distribution will not be uniform - hands of a selective few - bad- capitalism 2- technology/science - poverty - compensated 3- - Capitalist societies typically have more jobs for a smaller population - reverse of production - Presented an idealistic contrast to Malthus - Higher mortality observed among the working class in the former Soviet Union which Marx did not expect - opposite then predicted - Birth rates prevalent in Marxist Eastern Europe prior to breakup of Soviet Union very low, which is opposite to Marxian expectations where population growth is not necessarily looked as disadvantageous - opposite - pop = bad

Causes of Death 1- There are three major causes of death: 2- Infectious and parasitic diseases: think of diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, and measles. These are caused by ---,---,or---. - Tuberculosis causes a million deaths worldwide globally, malaria is common in regions like ---,---,---. There's no vaccination for ---yet. 3- Infectious/communicable diseases are no longer leading causes of deaths in high ---but they are leading causes of deaths in ---. - except during Covid - communicable - Only ----is one of the leading causes of deaths regardless of income status of nations. 4- HIV/AIDS: an example of somewhat recent infectious disease. As recent as in 2011, there were --- deaths from this disease worldwide. - As of 2012, there were ---people living with this disease globally. - The number of new infections peaked in ===with the number of deaths peaking in ---. - Impressive strides in treatment have been made to slow the progress of HIV into ---, thus, dramatically reducing mortality from this disease. 5- Treatment is with ---is very important as, otherwise, this disease has the potential to kill everyone who develops symptoms. - The treatment for HIV/AIDS is ---and, thus, prevention is very important. - HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa: discussion forum

1- 1.Infectious and parasitic diseases (communicable diseases) 2.Degenerative diseases (non-communicable diseases) 3.Victims of social and economic environment 2- virus or bacteria or protozoa - sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and south Asia - malaria 3- income nations, low income nations - lower respiratory infection 4- 1.6 million - 35 million - 1996, 2004 - AIDS 5- antiretroviral drugs - expensive

1- current evidence points to two basic conclusions: 2- The planned obsolescence theory could explain why animal species each have a ---, whereas the various aspects of wear and tear seem better able to explain why --- Life Span 3- Demographers define life span 4= longevity refers to 5- We do not yet have a good theory about aging to help us to predict how long ---, so we must be content to assume that the oldest age to which a human actually has lived (a figure that may change from day to day) is ---

1- (1) aging is much more complex than we have previously assumed, and different theories fill in only part of the puzzle; and (2) we have not yet discovered the basic, underlying mechanism of aging that (if it exists) would explain everything 2- different life span - members of the same species show so much variability in the actual aging process Life Span 3- referring to the oldest age to which human beings can survive; 4- the ability to remain alive from one year to the next—the ability to resist death. 5- humans could live - the oldest age to which it is possible to live.

The Census of the United States 1- a population census has been taken every ---years since ---in the United States as part of the constitutional mandate that seats in the House of Representatives be apportioned on the basis of population size and distribution 2- Even in 1790 the government used the census to find out more than just how many people there were 3- For the first 100 years of census taking in the United States, the population was enumerated by U.S. ---. In 1880, special census agents were hired for the first time, and finally in 1902 the ---became a permanent part of the government bureaucracy 4- . Beyond a core of inquiries designed to elicit demographic and housing information, the questions asked on the census have fluctuated according to

1- 10 - 1790 2- The census questions were reflections of the social importance of those categories 3- marshals - Census Bureau 4-the concerns of the time.

Census of the US 1- As per constitution requirement, census is taken in the US every ---years since 1790. The House of Representatives are apportioned based on ---- and ---. As population changes occur, the number of congressmen and congresswomen from the states changes depending on whether or not the states population --- or ----during the 10 year intercensal period. - question changes as society does 2- Changes in census questions over time The census questions in 1790 are quite different from the most recent questionnaire. The questions have been changed depending on the ---at the time. For instance, the first census in 1790 only asked the ---,---,--,---, and ----Until ---, US census allowed choosing only one racial category. However, by 2000, choosing multiple racial category was allowed as the society had become diverse in terms of race and ethnicity and the number of interracial and interethnic marriages/relationships had increased leading to children of mixed racial and ethnic origins. 3- In the 2010 census, in addition to the question on race, there was a separate question on "---." This allowed for the count of Latina/o population in the US. 4- American Community Survey Until 2000, there were two census forms: --- and ---. Most people received the short form and fewer, ---received the long form that had detailed questions, such as employment, occupation, commuting patterns, changes of residence etc. However the long form was eliminated in the ---census and the additional questions were included in the American Community Survey.

1- 10 - population size and distribution - increased or decreased 2- social needs - names of the head of family, free white males aged 16 and older, free white females, slaves, and other persons. - 2000 3- Hispanic/Latino/Spanish Origin 4- short form and long form - one on six, - 2010

1- As of this writing, the oldest authenticated age to which a human has ever lived is 2- (life expectancy at birth for the world as a whole is estimated to be about ---years for both sexes combined). Longevity 3- Longevity is usually measured by 4- This is greatly influenced by the society in which we live because of 5- Your own longevity is also influenced by the

1- 122 years and 164 days, 2- 70 Longevity 3- y life expectancy, the statistically average length of life (or average expected age at death 4- the variability in public health and medical care systems, 5- the genetic characteristics with which you are born

1- Estimates by the World Health Organization (2012) indicate that the world average is ---deaths to women per=== live births, which translates into a lifetime risk of death associated with pregnancy of --- 2- Rates are very low in ---(MMR of 16 per 100,000; or a lifetime risk of 1 in 3,800). By contrast, rates are highest in ---(MMR of 500; or a lifetime risk of 1 in 39). 3-As you already know, as we move through the health and mortality transition, ---take precedence over communicable diseases as the important causes of death 4- noncommunicable diseases account for ---out of ten of the top killers in the high income countries, ---of ten in upper middle income countries, ---of ten in lower middle income countries, and only ---of the top ten in low income countries 5-

1- 210 - 100,000 - 1 in 180. 2- developed nations - sub-Saharan Africa 3- noncommunicable diseases 4- nine - eight - four - two

1= UNAIDS (the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS) estimates that as of 2012 there were ---people of all ages in the world who have HIV/AIDS 2- The disease appears to have the potential to kill ---who develops its symptoms, unless an infected person is treated with antiretroviral drugs that slow down the progression of --- to ---. 3- Treatment is ---, however, underlining the importance of prevention 4- The spread of HIV can be prevented, as you undoubtedly know, especially by using ---and by not sharing --- 5- ----, where prevalence rates and new infection rates are by far the highest in the world.

1- 35 million -That number has been rising, but largely because new treatment options are keeping people alive longer once the disease is contracted 2- virtually everyone - HIV to AIDS 3- expensive 4- condoms during intercourse - needles to inject drug 5- sub-Saharan Africa

1- ---was found to be the third (albeit a distant third) real cause of death in the United States, 2- Number four on the list is death by ---—infectious diseases (beyond HIV or infections associated with tobacco, alcohol, or drug use). Measuring Mortality 3- In measuring mortality, we are attempting to estimate the --- 4- The ability to measure accurately varies according to the amount of 5- The least sophisticated and most often quoted measure of mortality is the crude ---

1- Alcohol misuse 2- microbial agents Measuring Mortality 3- force of mortality, the extent to which people are unable to live to their biological maximum age. 4- information available 5- death rate

Degenerative Diseases (noncommunicable) - pre-pandemic 1- ---causing bodily degradation leading to mortality, e.g., cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms (cancers), cerebrovascular diseases. 2- •Cardiovascular diseases: 3- •Neoplasms: - cancerous in nature 4- •Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): - asthma 5- •Injuries: 6----is one of the top ten causes of deaths in the US. - It peaks in the ---, then stabilizes, and then rises in ---. - ---have higher suicide rates than --- (sex). - Suicide levels vary among countries and so ---may be considered as possible causes.

1- Chronic illnesses 2- clogging of heart arteries (heart disease), and brain arteries (stroke) 3- multiplication of abnormal cells 4- from causes related to smoking that includes diseases like bronchitis and asthma. 5- Accidents, homicides, suicides 6- Suicide - young adult ages, older ages - Males , Females - cultural aspects

1- Questions are added and deleted by the Census Bureau through a process of consultation with 2- One of the more controversial items for the Census 2000 questionnaire was the question about 3- Previous censuses had asked people to choose a single category of race to describe themselves, but there was a considerable public sentiment that people should 4- Note that the short form information represents 5- This person used to be known as the "head of household" 6- In theory, a census obtains - But in practice

1- Congress, other government officials, and census statistics users 2- race and ethnicity 3- be able to identify themselves as being of mixed or multiple origins if, in fact, they perceived themselves in that way 4- represents everything necessary to meet the Constitutional requirements for Congressional Redistricting. Everything else is really useful, but not Constitutionally necessary. 5- The first person listed is supposed to be someone in the household who owns, is buying, or rents this housing unit. 6- accurate information from everyone. - that turns out to be more difficult than it may seem

DTT stages (Important you grasp this; refer to figure below) X axis: time Y axis: Vital rates per 1,000 peeps 1- Stage I: 2- Stage II: - a lot of nations are here - pop growth - rapid increase 3- Stage III: - short births / BABBY boom - pop decline - pop stabilize - we are expected to be here in 2100

1- High growth potential with high birth rates and death rates 2- Transition from high to low birth rates and death rates. Growth potential realized as death rates drop faster than birthrates. 3- Both birth rates and death rates as low as possible with intermittent population booms, such as Baby Boom. Absent a boom, in this stage population could actually decline.

'Real' causes of mortality 1- The commonly used ---ignores the real causes of death. - Real causes are ---underlying the ultimate identified cause of death. - Someone who dies from cancer, may actually have been exposed to some type of radiation. Thus, cancer is not the real underlying cause of mortality, but ---is. = From ---, the etiology of the diseases can be identified. - McGinnis and Foege came up with the classification of "real" or "actual" causes of deaths in 1990, e.g., ===,===,===, ==== etc. - The ICD is widely used because it ---. This makes it for easier cross-national comparisons. 2- In the US, in the year 2000, the top real causes of deaths are: 3- The top two's share was high relative to the others. Of everyone who died in 2000 in the US, ---% of the deaths was attributable to tobacco use. ---% of all deaths in the US in 2000 is attributable to poor diet and inactivity patterns.

1- International Classification of Diseases (ICD) - pathological conditions - radiation - death certificates - tobacco use/smoking, diet and activity pattern, alcohol misuse, exposure to radiation etc. - standardizes causes for deaths 2- -Tobacco -Diet and activity patterns -Alcohol misuse -Microbial agents- infections preventable with vaccinations 3- 18 - 15

1- Who are Neo-Malthusians? ---' work gave way to Neo-Malthusians, who accept many of Malthus' postulated but do not agree ---as the only preventive check to population growth. Neo-Malthusians favor ---as an acceptable form as preventive check to control reproduction, that eventually leads to lowering population growth. 2- Marxian Perspective 3- Marxian perspective is that each society at each point in history has its own ---that determines the consequences of population growth. Marx argues that ----causes inequality in society and poverty. He argues that in a well functioning ---, population growth will be absorbed in economies because of ---. - not a bad this of it leads to productivity

1- Malthus - moral restraint - modern methods of contraception 2- - Acknowledges the rapid growth in population like Malthus -Differs in the consequences of population growth -Uses Capitalism as explanation of poverty -Uses Socialism as remedy for poverty 3- law of population - capitalism - socialist society - demand for labor

1- The Roman empire began to break up by the third century, and the period from about the fifth to the fifteenth centuries represents the Middle Ages. ---in Europe during this period probably improved enough to raise life expectancy to more than 30 years. 2- The recurrent outbreaks of the disease deeply affected European life at all levels—the demographic as well as the economic, etc.. - what was it 3- t Europe's increasing dominance in oceanic shipping and weapons gave it an unrivaled ability not only to trade goods with the rest of the world but to trade diseases as well. The most famous of these disease transfers was the so-called The Industrial Revolution to the Twentieth Century 4- At the end of eighteenth century, after the plague had receded and as increasing income improved nutrition, housing, and sanitation, life expectancy in Europe and the United States was approximately --- 5- this was a transitional stage at which there were

1- Nutrition 2- The plague, or Black Death, 3- Columbian Exchange, involving the diseases that Columbus and other European explorers took to the Americas The Industrial Revolution to the Twentieth Century 4- 40 years 5- just about as many deaths to children under age 5 as there were deaths at age 65 and over.

1- why are babies so vulnerable? 2- How can dehydration and other causes of death among infants be avoided? 3- In places where infant death rates are high, ---are a major cause of death, and most of those deaths could be prevented with --- 4- Throughout the world, infant health has been aided especially by the fact that the World Health Organization of the United Nations has promoted the use of

1- One of the most important causes of death among infants is dehydration, which can be caused by almost any disease or dietary imbalance, with polluted water being a common source of trouble for babies 2- In the broadest sense, the answer can be summed up by two characteristics common to people in places where infant death rates are low—high levels of education and income. - These are key ingredients at both the societal level and the individual level. 3- communicable diseases =medical assistance 4- oral rehydration therapy (ORT),

Ideational Perspectives Explaining Determination of Family Size - The theories below help explain why individuals started choosing to have small families. These explanations are the individual level or micro level. 1- ---: humans do a cost-benefit analysis of their actions. If they want more children, then having children must be beneficial in some regard, such as, source of income, taking care of parents when old etc. 2- ---: in traditional societies, the "wealth flow" occurred from children to parents. In modern societies, the wealth flow reversed and occurs from parents to children. Thus, in modern societies having children comes with a cost, e.g., childcare, education, etc. 3- - but why is this not happening in developing nations? 4- DT us reformulated by introducing ideational factors and processes like secularization. Modernization is also an explanation of DT, but there are also a host of other factors that need to be factored in: 5- Demographic Transition can further be broken down into a set of transitions. We will cover some of these in this course:

1- Rational Choice Theory 2- Intergenerational Wealth Flow Theory 3- Demand of children reduces with modernization 4- There is a movement towards a common goal, that is low birth and death rates, but the paths to this goal are different and less predictable- varies from nation to nation. There is no one size fits all scenario in DT process. 5- Health and Mortality Fertility Transition Migration Transition Urban Transition Family and Household Transition

1- ---was one of the first of the European nations to keep track of its population regularly with the establishment in 1749 of a combined population register and census administered in each diocese by the local clergy 2- Since the end of World War II, the United Nations has encouraged all countries to 3-

1- Sweden 2- enumerate their populations in censuses, often providing financial as well as technical aid to less developed nations 3-

1- Ebola began 2- the Ebola virus soon spread to Guinea's capital city of Conakry, and on March 13, 2014, 3- The scope of this outbreak, both in terms of cases and geography, can be attributed to the 4- Liberia was first declared Ebola-free in May 2015. 5-

1- The initial case, or index patient, was reported in December 2013. An 18-month-old boy from a small village in Guinea is believed to have been infected by bats 2- ortly after, the Pasteur Institute in France confirmed the illness as EVD caused by Zaire ebolavirus. On March 23, 2014, with 49 confirmed cases and 29 deaths, the WHO officially declared an outbreak of EVD. 3- unprecedented circulation of EVD into crowded urban areas, increased mobilization across borders, and conflicts between key infection control practices and prevailing cultural and traditional practices in West Africa. 4- dditional cases were found and treated, and the country was again declared Ebola-free in September 2015. More cases were discovered in November 2015. On January 14, 2016, Liberia again announced it was Ebola-free; however, cases were detected in March and April of 2016, and Liberia made its final declaration on June 1, 2016. 5-

Demographic Transition Theory (DTT) - communal theory in demography - started with attempt to classify countries on bases on pop growth - refined to be DTT 1- This theory is a refinement of --- 2- -Group A: ---; Northern and Western Europe, US - developed nations -Group B: ---; Italy, Spain, Central Europe, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia - pop started to decline -Group C: ---; rest of the world - pop growth 3- shift from 4-Started as ----with low, moderate, and high birth and death rates - key variables that helped formulate DTT 5- Demographic Transition Theory describes a population transition from high birth and death rates with an interstitial burst in growth rates resulting in a larger population at the end of the transition than when it had begun. This theory is based on the changes in the population that had taken place in ---over time. - in middle of transition it's likely that nations will experience a burst in pop - based on group A - developed nations 6- Kingsley Davis (1945) described the population increase in terms of what we commonly call ---: "viewed in the long-run, earth's population has been like a long, thin powder fuse that burns slowly and haltingly until it finally reaches the charge and explodes." - pop explosion is extension of DTT

1- Warren Thompson's 1924 classification of nations based on population growth 2- - incipient decline - transitional group - high growth potential 3- high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates 4- classifying groups of nations 5- industrial nations 6- Population Explosion

1-Statistics Canada estimates coverage error by comparing census results with population estimates (the demographic analysis approach) and by conducting a 2- The Reverse Record Check is the most important part of this, and involves 3-

1- a Reverse Record Check study to measure the undercoverage errors and also an Overcoverage Study designed to investigate overcoverage errors. 2- taking a sample of records from other sources such as birth records and immigration records and then looking for those people in the census returns 3-

CHAPTER 3 Summary and Conclusion 1- Malthus believed that 2- Marx, on the other hand, did not openly argue with the Malthusian causes of growth, but he vehemently disagreed with the idea that - Marx denied that population growth was a problem per se—it only appeared that way in --- 3- The perspective of Mill, who seems very contemporary in many of his ideas, was somewhere between - He believed that increased ---could lead to a motivation for having smaller families, especially if the influence of women was allowed to be felt and if people were educated about the possible consequences of having a large family 4- Dumont took these kinds of individual motivations a step further and suggested in greater detail the reasons why prosperity and ambition, operating through the principle of social capillarity, generally lead to a 5- . Durkheim's perspective emphasized the ---more than the ---of population growth. - He was convinced that the complexity of modern societies is due almost entirely to the social responses to population growth— 6- More recently developed demographic perspectives have implicitly assumed that the consequences of population growth are --- and ---, and they move directly to explanations of the causes of population growth. 7- The original theory of the demographic transition suggested that growth is an ---between the more stable conditions of high birth and death rates to a new balance of low birth and death rates. 8- Reformulations of the demographic transition perspective have emphasized its evolutionary character and have shown that the demographic transition is not one monolithic change, but rather that it encompasses several interrelated transitions:

1- a biological urge to reproduce was the cause of population growth and that its natural consequence was poverty 2- poverty is the natural consequence of population growth. - capitalist societies 3- that of Malthus and Marx - productivity 4- decline in the birth rate 5- consequences , causes - more people lead to higher levels of innovation and specialization. 6- serious and problematic 7- intermediate stage 8= A decline in mortality will almost necessarily be followed by a decline in fertility, and by subsequent transitions in migration, urbanization, the age structure, and the family and household structure in society

1-A core principle is that where you live is Mapping Demographic Data 2- Demographers have been using maps as a tool for 3- Today a far more sophisticated version of this same idea is available to demographers through geographic information systems (GIS), which f 4- A GIS is a computer-based system that allows us

1- a good predictor of how you live Mapping Demographic Data 2- analysis for a long time, and some of the earliest analyses of disease and death relied heavily on maps 3- which form the major part of the field of GIScience. 4- combine maps with data that refer to particular places on those maps and then to analyze those data using spatial statistics (part of GIScience) and display the results as thematic maps or some other graphic format.

1- the "epidemiological transition, 2- As a result of this transition, the variability by age in mortality is reduced or compressed, leading to an increased rectangularization of mortality. Health and Mortality Changes Over Time 3- in the premodern world, about one-half the deaths were to children under age ---and only about one in 10 were to a person aged ---or---.

1- a long-term shift in health and disease patterns that has brought death rates down from very high levels in which people die young, primarily from communicable diseases, to low levels, with deaths concentrated among the elderly, who die from degenerative diseases. T 2- This means that most people survive to advanced ages and then die pretty quickly Health and Mortality Changes Over Time 3- five - 65 or older

The Urban Transition 1- With empty lands filling up, migrants from the countryside in the world today have no place to go but to cities, and cities have historically tended to flourish by ---. 2- The urban transition thus begins with migration from rural to urban areas but then morphs into the urban "evolution" as most humans wind up being ---

1- absorbing labor from rural areas 2- born in, living in, and dying in cities.

1- In 2012 two financial analysts in California put together a demographic-economic model of 176 countries of the world. Their conclusion was that

1- age structures with a disproportionate share of people of working age are good for economic growth (economies with a demographic tailwind), and age structures with lots of kids or lots of older people are not so good (economies with a headwind).

1- There is also a spatial component, since African Americans tend to have the highest levels of residential segregation of any group in the United States 2- If we look at what is now the largest ethnic minority in the United States— Hispanics—we find that the income and social status gap --- 3- As this happened, differences in death rates between the groups disappeared and more recently have crossed over, so that age-adjusted death rates among both males and females 4- As immigrants have once again become more numerous in the United States, where you were born has reemerged as a characteristic of importance.

1- and this has been shown to affect health levels negatively 2- has narrowed between them and "Anglos" 3- are lower for Hispanics in the United States than for non-Hispanic whites 4- U.S.-born young adult blacks had the highest odds of dying after controlling for socioeconomic status, whereas older foreign-born blacks and Asians had the lowest likelihood of dying in comparison to other groups—Americanization isn't necessarily good for your health

The Family and Household Transitio 1- It is reasonable to think that the transition in family and household structure, noted above with respect to the second demographic transition, is not so much a second transition as it is . 2- As I show in Figure 3.4, the family and household transition is influenced by 3- The -- and --- transition is pivotal because it gives women (and men, too, of course) a dramatically greater number of years to live in general, and more specifically a greater number of years that do not need to be devoted to children - how 4- The age transition plays a role at the societal level, as well, because over time the increasingly similar number of people at all ages—as opposed to a majority of people being very young—means 5- ---in families and households is also encouraged by migration (which breaks up and reconstitutes families) and by the urban transition, especially since urban places tend to be more tolerant of diversity than are smaller rural communities

1- another set of transitions within the broader framework of the demographic transition 2- all the previously mentioned transitions. 3- health and mortality - when mortality was high, marriages had a high probability of ending in widowhood when one of the partners was still reasonably young, and families routinely were reconstituted as widows and widowers remarried. - But low mortality leads to a much longer time that married couples will be alive together before one partner dies, and this alone is related to part of the increase in divorce rates. 4- that any society is bound to be composed of a greater array of family and household arrangements 5- Diversity

New Infectious Diseases 1- New infectious diseases maybe transmitted from animals human beings when animals --- - zoonotic transition 2- HIV/AIDS is believed to have transmitted from --- - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is believed to have transmitted from --- 3- ----is a new infectious disease in the US and was spread via an infected bird that was bit by a mosquito that, in turn, Bit a human. 4- Avian flu (H5N1) and swine flu (H1N1) are both new diseases that were first noticed in the first decade of the --- 5- As we consume more ---, the risk of infections crossing over from animals are higher. 6- As we are more ---, through ease of travel, the risk of these infections spreading worldwide is higher as well.

1- are used as food sources. 2- monkeys and/or chimpanzees. - animals raised for food in China. 3- The West Nile virus 4- twenty first century (2000s). 5= protein 6- connected globally

What is Secularization? 1-Quality of ---and one taking responsibility of one's well-being. It is the ---of thought. It is linked with ---because this process originated in western nations. 2- Usually concurrent or after with ---development, but may occur without that 3-Idea spread through ---which makes it easier to copy or emulate behaviors and practices 4----facilitates this idea 5-Cultural factors may be more important than ---factors -Areas that are socio-economicaly similar did not always experience DT. However, areas that were culturally similar experienced DT simultaneously or within similar timeframe. Cultural similarities include: language, ethnic background, lifestyle etc. 6- 10% rule of fertility decline With fertility decline being one of the key components of ---, it has been observed that once marital fertility of a nation reduced by ---, then fertility starts to decline with very marginal chances of reversing.

1- autonomy - modernization -westernization 2- industrialization/eco 3- network 4- Education 5- socio-economic - 6- DT - 10%

1- Note that life expectancy is based on a hypothetical population, so the actual longevity of a population would be measured by the --- 2- Since it is undesirable to have to wait decades to find out how long people are actually going to live, the hypothetical situation set up by life expectancy provides a === 3- One of the limitations of basing the life table on rates for a given year, however, is that in most instances the death rates of older people in that year will almost certainly be ---than will be experienced by today's babies when they reach that age

1- average age at death 2- useful, quick comparison between populations 3- higher

Impact on Society 1- Unlike in Malthus's day, population growth is no longer viewed as 2- Jack Goldstone argues that population growth in the presence of rigid social structures produced dramatic political change in England and France, in the Ottoman Empire, and in China. Population growth led to increased

1- being caused by one set of factors nor as having a simple prescribed set of consequences. 2- government expenditures, which led to inflation, which led to fiscal crisis - The result in the four case studies he analyzes was rebellion and revolution.

1- Vital Events: are data on ---. Registration of such information makes for valuable demographic data that are referred to as ---. This was first started in ---, where some of the events such as births, deaths, baptisms were assigned to the church. Then, the utility of this information was realized by demographers who constructed the demographic history of parts of Europe from these data. 2- Detailed registration data usually in highly developed nations because collection of these data involves ====,---,---, and ---that are characteristic of highly developed and prosperous nations. 3- Many European nations maintain Population Registers which are data of vital events such as births, deaths, marriage, divorce, and change of address for an entire population. Population registers contain continuous data on ---of individuals including change of address. 4- In the US, we do not have population registers because of ---There is hesitance in the collection and updating of information of the population on a continuous basis.

1- births, deaths, marriages, divorces, and abortions - vital statistics - Europe 2- accurate data-keeping, good communication, technology, developed bureaucracy-features 3- life events 4- privacy concerns. -

American Community Survey (ACS) 1- Collects detailed information from questions that used to be in ---. The long census form was discontinued in ---and was replaced by ACS. 2- Conducted ---covering ---annually. Thus, from the ACS data a continuing picture of the US population can be created without a 10 year information gap between each census. 3- As ACS includes 3 million individuals on a monthly basis, it has produced enough data on even small places with population less than --- 4- Of course, it would be great to be able to take census of entire population annually, but it is impossible to do so because enumerating an entire population is an extremely ---affair. Thus, in the US, the census is taken every ---years, or decennially; in Canada, which has a smaller population than the US, the census is taken every five years or quinquennially.

1- census long form - 2010 2- monthly - 3 million 3- 20,000. 4- costly - 10 -

Census pop are typically accurate but can have some errors - Enumeration Errors 1- During population count, errors are inevitable. There are two types of errors: --- and ---. 2- •Coverage error: --- 3- Undercount: occurs when individuals are ---- or ---. When certain groups are more likely to be undercounted than others, then these groups run the risk of ---. This is called ---. Black undercount pop (-) which undercount pop = differential undercount 4-Overcount: occurs when ---than there is in the population. 5- Who are undercounted? - In the US, ---, especially ---are undercounted. In the 1940 census, at least ---blacks were missed (10.3%) and by 2000, this percentage fell to 1.8%. Thus, by 2000, 1.8% of the black population was undercounted. However, in the 2010 census the downward trend reversed and the black undercount increased to 2.1%. In 2000, 1.8% of the black population was missed (undercount), while 1.1% of the white population that was not present was added (overcount). This led to a differential undercount, which is the difference between black and white undercount of 2.9%. 6- The net population undercount was ---in 2010; however, as you will see some groups were undercounted (blacks by 2.1%) and some were overcounted (whites by 0.8%).

1- coverage error and content error 2- undercounting population is a coverage error 3- missed or not counted - not being represented - differential undercount 4- more people are counted 5- minorities - African Americans - 1 in 10 6- zero

1-overall, ---people were treated for Ebola in the United States during the 2014-2016 epidemic. 2- On October 23, 2014, a medical aid worker who had volunteered in Guinea was hospitalized in New York City with suspected EVD. 3- seven other people were cared for in the United States after they were exposed to the virus and became ill while in West Africa, the majority of whom were medical workers. 4- please review the numbers for Sierra Leone and the US. - Total Cases (Suspected, Probable, Confirmed) -Laboratory Confirmed Cases - Total Deaths

1- eleven 2- The diagnosis was confirmed by the CDC the next day. The patient recovered. 3- They were transported by chartered aircraft from West Africa to hospitals in the United States. Six of these patients recovered, one died. 4- U.S. -4 -4 -1 SL -14,124 -8,706 - 3,956

Emerging Infectious Diseases 1- Controlling disease has often meant altering our --- 2- Sometimes these environmental changes wind up putting us unintentionally in the path of ----. 3- Because of the increasing ease of --- and ---, the potential for new diseases to emerge is very high and the World Health Organization leads a coalition of groups that monitors these threats

1- environment 2- new diseases 3- travel and greater global connectivity

1- Although death rates began to decline in the nineteenth century, improvements were at first fairly slow to develop for various reasons. 2- Until recently, then, increases in longevity were primarily due to 3- McKeown and Record (1962), who did the pioneering research in this area, and more recently Fogel (2004), argue that the factors most responsible for nineteenth-century mortality declines were 4- Why couldn't the United States translate its economic and social advantages into better levels of child survival? 5- The medical model of curing disease gets much more attention in the modern world, but its usefulness is predicated on the underlying foundation of

1- famines were frequent in Europe as late as the middle of the nineteenth century - Epidemics and pandemics of infectious diseases = a particularly virulent form of the flu apparently mutated almost spontaneously in West Africa (Sierra Leone), although it was later called "Spanish Influenza." 2- environmental changes that improved health levels, especially better nutrition and increasing standards of living, not to better medical care: 3- improved diet and hygienic changes, with medical improvements largely restricted to smallpox vaccinations. 4- Our explanation is that infectious disease processes . . . were still poorly understood 5- good public health

Reformulation of DT 1•Although industrialization triggered DT, some nations experienced drop in ---before that. 2•In several ---, family sizes started declining even before industrialization set in. •What's going on? 3- ---is a sufficient cause but 'not' a necessary cause for fertility decline. 4- Demographic transition theory had to reformulated because it was observed that in some European regions, e.g., provinces in Spain, fertility started --in spite of economic development or at low levels of economic development. Similar observation was made in other areas of Europe. Thus, it could be that economic development is not a necessary condition for demographic transition to take place. Regions that shared similar ---, such as language, ethnicity, shared fertility decline patterns even if there were disparities in development. Ideas of family planning spread quickly where communication was easy, e.g., same language. 5- Process of Secularization: To explain ---, secularization came into the picture. "Secularization is an attitude where one takes responsibility of ---." --- and ---is followed by secularization. However, secularization may occur ---of industrialization or economic development.

1- fertility 2- European 3- Economic Development 4- declining - culture 5- reduction in fertility levels despite industrialization - one's well-being - Industrialization and economic development - independent

Critique of Demographic Transition Theory 1-Assumes the link between decline in mortality and decline in fertility: --- 2-Does not address timing of fertility decline: --- 3-Assumes replication in all nations: ---because it may not be replicated in all nations. The preconditions to DT that existed in developed nations, that have undergone transition, do not exist in ---nations. The fertility levels existing in nations that have transitioned are ---than some pre-transition less developed nations. Also, mortality levels of present pre-transition nations were not as ---as developed nations before their transition. DT in developed nations occurred due to economic development and was bottom up (started at grass-root level). In contrast,. - not as organically 4- Issue:

1- fertility will decline after mortality decline 2- at what point will a nation's fertility start to decline 3- ethnocentric - less developed/developing - lower - high - in developing nations, one of the reasons for mortality decline is transplantation of medical advances from wealthier nations 4- transplantation of technologies to developing nations may hinder DT

1- Estimating undercounts: Coverage error should be estimated ---and then we need to know who gets undercounted. 2- There are two methods: 3- •Demographic Analysis: First, understand that the population of any place at two points can only change through 4- •How does this method of estimating undercount work? Let's say in 2000, for the city of San Marcos, the census counted a certain number of people (X). Now, from 2001 onward, we will have data on each of these population components for San Marcos: a) births (+), b) deaths (-), c) in-migration (+), d) out-migration (-). In developed nations, like the US, these data are easily available. So, we should be able to estimate the population of San Marcos in 2010 using the data from 2000 census and these preceding four components. Now, let us say that the population of San Marcos as per 2010 census was Y. Now, ideally, X should equal Y, or, the 2010 population estimation should match the 2010 census count for San Marcos. Now, if the 2010 census count is less than the estimated 2010 population, then an undercount may be suspected. Then, further analysis is done to determine why the undercount occurred and who were missed. 5- Demographic analysis indicated that ---children were missed in China's 2000 census.

1- first 2- a) demographic analysis, b) dual-system estimation 3- a) births (add +), b) deaths (minus -), c) in-migration (+), d) out-migration (-). 4- just read 5- 37 million

The Demographic Transition Is Really a Set of Transitions 1- Usually (but not always) the first transition to occur is the --- and ---transition (the shift from deaths at younger ages due to communicable disease to deaths at older ages due to degenerative diseases). 2- This transition is followed by the ---transition—the shift from natural (and high) to controlled (and low) fertility, typically in a delayed response to the health and mortality transition. 3- The rapid growth of the population occasioned by the pattern of mortality declining sooner and more rapidly than fertility almost always leads to overpopulation of rural areas, producing the ---transition, especially toward urban areas, creating the ---transition 4- The -- and ---transition is occasioned by the massive structural changes that accompany longer life, lower fertility, an older age structure, and urban instead of rural residence—all of which are part and parcel of the demographic transition.

1- health and mortality 2- fertility 3- migration, urban 4- family and household

Is There Something Beyond the Demographic Transition? 1- In its original formulation, the demographic transition was simply a movement from a demographic regime characterized by high birth and death rates to one characterized by low birth and death rates. - When the latter was achieved, presumably the transition was over and things would stabilize demographically (---) and a country would enter a ---- 2- However, the dramatic changes taking place in family and household structure since World War II, especially in Europe, led Dirk van de Kaa (1987) to talk about the "---" as something that goes beyond a stable post-transitional period - why 3- van de Kaa's view - the notion that the end result of the "first" demographic transition is --- or---, replacing it with the broader view that young people increasingly make decisions about having children on the basis of ---, without concerning themselves about biological replacement 4-

1- homeostasis, post-transitional era 2-second demographic transition - van de Kaa suggested that the change was less about not having babies than it was about the personal freedom to do what one wanted, especially among women. 3- homeostasis, or population stability, self-fulfillment 4-

1- in Europe, had it not been for spatial autocorrelation, fertility might have declined 2- It turns out that all three demographic processes— 3- Because culture underlies most aspects of demography, understanding why some places have different cultures than others helps us to understand 4- As a result of these new methods of analysis and of viewing the world, demography is evolving from being a primarily spatially ---(which it has always been) to an increasingly more spatially ---(facilitated by the methods of GIScience). 5-The PRIZM system made Robbin's company, Claritas Corporation (now part of Nielsen), one of the largest and most successful

1- in isolated settings, but the decline would not have spread as it did. 2- —mortality, fertility, and migration—exhibit spatial autocorrelation. 3- spatially varying levels of mortality, fertility, and migration. 4- aware science - analytic science 5- spatial demographics (aka geodemographics) firms in the world.

1- the available evidence suggests that no more than 35 percent of the variability in longevity is due to 2- The social world influences the risk of death in a variety of ways that can be reasonably reduced to two broad categories: 3- The infrastructure of society refers to 4- Within any particular social setting, however, death rates may also be influenced by ---. 5-

1- inherited characteristics 2- : (1) the social, economic, and political infrastructure (how much control we exercise over nature) and (2) lifestyle (how much control we exercise over ourselves). 3- the way in which wealth is generated and distributed, reflecting the extent to which water and milk are purified, diseases are vaccinated against, rodents and other pests are controlled, waste is eliminated, and food, shelter, clothing, and acute medical care and long-term assistance are made available to members of society. 4- lifestyle 5-

1- Although HIV prevalence rates are still fairly low in Asia and North Africa, they are nonetheless rising in those areas of the world because governments have been slow to recognize and respond to local risks of transmission among --- ,----,---- 2- Probably the most disturbing aspect of AIDS in Africa was, until recently, the widespread ----of the disease's existence, and the general lack of ---support for putting prevention programs into place 3- condom use in Africa has been slowed down by suspicions that ---, and by cultural norms that associate the use of condoms with ----, thus limiting their use within marriage, even though one or both partners in a marriage may have been at risk for HIV due to their own extramarital sexual activity 4- Added to this was the belief of the previous president of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, that AIDS was not caused by HIV, and whose health minister had proposed --,---,----as AIDS remedies 5-

1- injection-drug users, prostitutes, and men having sex with men. 2- denial - political 3- condoms themselves carried the disease - prostitution 4- garlic, lemon juice, and beetroot 5-

1- Mortality: 2- ---was a turning point after which mortality levels started declining almost globally. 3- why- WWII spurred medical advances, such as ---, to keep troops alive in different parts of the world. 4- what happened - ---, then, benefited from these medical advances as these were easily transferrable from developed to less developed nations. 5- Development was no longer the key to ---. - B/c - technology be transported here therefore they don't need to rely on industrialization - in most places around the glob, LE have increased 6- For ----,and ---, life expectancy was already higher in 1950-55, but it was quite lower for ---,---,---. As nations in these regions have made progress, their life expectancy have risen dramatically. 7- If you consider specific countries or regions, like sub-Saharan Africa and Russia, you will realize that ---were not universal. Sub-Saharan Africa was affected by ---, and Russia has not been able to make sufficient progress in managing ----/---- 8- were these gains in life expectancy universal?

1- is a population dynamic that is related to death and dying 2- The World War II 3- invention of penicillin 4 -Less developed nations 5- extending life 6- North America and Europe - Latin America, Asia, and Africa 7- life expectancy gains - HIV/AIDS - degenerative/non-communicable diseases. 8- no - Pacific countries or regions, like sub-Saharan Africa and Russia. - generally yes though

Rectangularization of Mortality 1- dying pushed to --- 2- ----pushed to a narrow range of age at later stages of life. So, one could expect to live longer with a chronic disease. 3- This could also mean that --- 4- percentage of population living longer

1- later ages 2- event of death 3- morbidity is prolonged. 4-

1-In the United States, the differential undercount has meant that racial/ethnic minority groups (especially African Americans) have been 2- In China, coverage error has focused not on racial/ethnic groups but on 3- The reason for this was not that the census takers could not find them, but rather that they were 4- A related issue with coverage error is that it is dependent upon 5-

1- less likely to be included in the census count than whites. 2- children 3- being hidden - Acknowledging them would have provided evidence that the government-mandated birth quotas had been exceeded. 4- the definition of who should be counted. 5-

1- In the United States, ---is responsible for more cancer deaths than any other type - The ill effects of smoking take time to catch up with you, so ----rates are high in the United States despite the rapid decline in ---over the past few decades. 2- Closely related to smoking is another noncommunicable condition that is an important cause of death—--- 3- Also on the list of deadly noncommunicable diseases is ---a disease that inhibits the body's production of insulin, a hormone needed to convert glucose into energy 4- as populations age in the high income countries, ---has made its way to the top ten list 5-

1- lung cancer - lung cancer - smoking 2- chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). - The underlying functional problem is difficulty breathing, symptomatic of inadequate oxygen delivery 3- diabetes mellitus, 4- Alzheimer's disease 5-

Type of Theory 1- DTT is a ---level theory because human beings are subjected to changes in ---and as a result their behaviors changed. Humans did not make calculated effort to lower ---. Medical institutions improved due to progress in the sciences that led to improvement in public health that ultimately reduced ---levels. Humans did not leave farms or agriculture on a whim. But, with creation of ---in urban locations due to industrialization and economic changes, people moved into the cities. Thus, humans were reacting to institutional changes that were occurring. - medical research are outside of control - macro level - impact human behavior at micro level - Causes of Demographic Transition 2- Modernization: 3- As Demeny (1968) puts it: "In traditional societies fertility and mortality levels are high. In modern societies, fertility and mortality levels are low. In between these two types of societies, is ---." - Relevance of Modernization to DTT 4- Death/mortality rates fall before birth rates - why? - easer to accept modernization 5- Why did birth rates decline lag death rates? BR decline always lagged DR, but BR declined eventually. BR harder decline because reproductive behavior often guided by --- that are harder to change. Economic development reduced the necessity of having more kids or larger families because of: - once all were absorbed then fertility declined

1- macro - societal institutions - mortality - mortality - high wage jobs 2- from traditional to industrial; meaning because of industrialization a society's traditional institutions were able to change when necessary. 3- demographic transition 4- The desire to extend or prolong lives combined with Improvement in the standard of living due to industrialization 5- societal norms a)With urbanization, children were not required to produce resources for family b)Mandatory education for children reduced the value of children Lower infant mortality rates reduced the need to have more children to attain a desired family size

1- The most basic health difference between males and females is that 2- Fetal mortality is higher for boys than girls, but 3- sexual dimorphism 4- In human populations, the survival advantage of women is widespread, but 5- The social aspect of mortality also shows up in what is certainly an important part of the explanation for the fact that over much of the twentieth century life expectancy was ===for females than for males, whereas in the past two to three decades the gap has ---.

1- males have higher death rates than females from conception to the very oldest ages. 2- there are still typically more males born than females 3- basic biological superiority females have in the ability of females to survive relative to males 4- it is not quite universal. 5- increasing faster - narrowed

1- Smallpox has been eliminated as a disease from the world (although there are reportedly still vials in laboratories) as a result of 2- what are the only places in the world that still record significant numbers of polio victims each year 3- although a high level of national income is nearly always associated with higher life expectancies, the bigger question is whether it is possible for poorer countries to lower their mortality levels. The Nutrition Transition and Its Link to Obesity 4- the nutrition transition— 5- There is ample evidence that people living in the wealthier societies of the world are - size?

1- massive vaccination campaigns, and polio is close to being eradicated after a nearly three-decade campaign of worldwide vaccination by the World Health Organization (WHO) 2- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria 3- Global experience shows the answer to be yes, and there are several ways to do it. The Nutrition Transition and Its Link to Obesity 4- a marked worldwide shift toward a diet high in fat and processed foods and low in fiber, accompanied by lower levels of physical exercise, leading to corresponding increases in degenerative diseases 5- e larger in size than ever before in history

The Age Transition 1-n many respects, the age transition is the "---" transition in that the changing number of people at each age that occurs with the decline of mortality, and then the decline in fertility, presents the most obvious demographic pressure for social change

1- master,

The Health and Mortality Transition 1- The transition process almost always begins with a decline in ---, which is brought about by changes in society that improve the health of people and thus their ability to resist disease, and by scientific advances that prevent premature death 2- However, death rates do not decline evenly by age; rather it is the --- or the ---—but especially the youngest—whose lives are most likely to be saved by improved life expectancy. 3- Thus, the initial impact of the health and mortality transition is to increase the number of ----who are alive, ballooning the bottom end of the age structure in a manner that looks just like an increase in the birth rate.

1- mortality 2- Very youngest and the very oldest 3- young people

Influence of Socioeconomic Status on Mortality 1- Education and income: income and education are strongly related to ---as one would expect. - Data from 2010 indicated that those with at least some college level education had death rates that were ---% lower than those with less than high school education. - Higher levels of education leads to higher levels of ---, which leads to better health outcomes. - This is very likely due being able to increased accessibility to ---. 2- In England, despite the presence of a ====that is available to all, a study that followed a large group of civil servants in London from the late 1960s through the 2000s, found that death rates in higher social class were lower compared to lower social class. - could be due to education level/ access to education 3- Race and ethnicity: there are differences in mortality levels based on ---/----. - The life expectancy difference between African Americans and whites in 1900 was ---years and by 2010 it reduced to ---years. = Still, this difference was greater than the life expectancy difference between US and Mexico. Some causes of these race differentials: 4- If you combine the effect of education and race, the difference in life expectancy among --- and ----is even greater. - Based on recent data (2008), it was shown that college educated (typically 16 or more years of education) whites had life expectancy over ---years longer than African Americans with less than high school education (typically fewer than 12 years of education). 5- Regarding Latinos, the socioeconomic gap between this group and whites has ---. - Recent data has even indicated that death rates among Hispanics are ---than that of whites. - Some attribute this pattern to the --- which is better health outcomes among this demographic group despite socioeconomic disadvantages. 6- lol at Americanized v foreign born differences

1- mortality - 33 - income - healthcare 2- national health service 3- minority/marginalized statuses - 15.6 , 3.8 - a) higher rates of cardiovascular diseases among African Americans b) residential segregation c) smoking (specifically among black males) 4- African Americans and whites - 10 5- narrowed - lower - "Hispanic Paradox," - could be due to family ties, food habits,we don't know

The Migration Transition 1- Meanwhile, back at the very young age structure put into motion by declining mortality, the theory of demographic change and response suggests that in rural areas, where 2- This is because migration takes people (mainly young adults) out of one area and puts them in another area, thus affecting the ---in both places

1- most of the population lived for most of human history, the growth in the number of young people will lead to an oversupply of young people looking for jobs, which will encourage people to go elsewhere in search of economic opportunity 2- age structure

1- By quantifying (and thereby clarifying) our knowledge of past patterns of demographic events, we are also better able to Spatial Demography 2- Spatial demography represents the 3- It recognizes that demography is, by its very nature, concerned with 4- Since people tend to do things differently in different places, demography is 5- spatial autocorrelation.

1- nterpret historical events in a meaningful fashion. Spatial Demography 2- application of spatial concepts and statistics to demographic phenomena 3- people in places. 4- inherently spatial. 5- Waldo Tobler's First Law of Geography that everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things

1- Very importantly, for example, World War II brought us ---, the world's first "miracle drug" 2- All of this knowledge and technology was ---, leading immediately to significant declines in the death rate. 3- Countries no longer have to develop economically to improve their health levels if 4- Progress is not, however, automatic. Sub-Saharan Africa was generally experiencing a rise in life expectancy until being devastated by Postponing Death by Preventing and Curing Disease 5- There are two basic ways to accomplish the goal of postponing death to the oldest possible ages:

1- penicillin 2- transferred to the rest of the world at the war's end 3- public health facilities can be emulated and medical care imported from richer countries 4- HIV/AIDS over the past decades, as I will discuss later in the chapter. Postponing Death by Preventing and Curing Disease 5- (1) preventing diseases from occurring or from spreading when they do occur; and (2) curing people of disease when they are sick. Not getting sick in the first place is clearly the ideal route to travel, a route with both communal (public) and individual elements.

1- In hunter-gatherer societies, it is likely that the principal cause of death was ---combined perhaps with selective --- 2- As humans gained more control over the environment by domesticating plants and animals (the Agricultural Revolution), both birth and death rates prob--- 3- . It was perhaps in the sedentary, more densely settled villages common after the Agricultural Revolution that ---became a more prevalent cause of death. The Roman Era to the Industrial Revolution 4- Life expectancy in the Roman era is estimated to have been --- 5- The major characteristic of high mortality societies was that there was a lot more ----at which people died than is true today, but in general people died at a younger, rather than an older, age.

1- poor nutrition—people literally starving to death— - infanticide and geronticide (the killing of older people) 2- ably went up, 3- infectious diseases The Roman Era to the Industrial Revolution 4- 22 years 5- variability in the ages

Sources: Census, Vital Statistics, Population Registers, Sample Survey etc. 1- Census: aimed at complete enumeration of ---. Per UN Statistics Division (2008): "the traditional census is among the most --- and ---a nation undertakes. It requires ---the entire country, mobilizing and training an army of ---, conducting a massive ---, ---all households, collecting ----, compiling vast amounts of completed questionnaires, and analysing and disseminating the data" 2- The goal of the census is to obtain a complete count of people ---- or ---. However, 100% count may not be achieved due to various reasons. 3- History of Census Earliest census, or census like count of population, were taken in ---,---,--,---,---. Sweden was the first Europeans nation to keep an ===. In the US, the first census was taken in ---. 4- According to Frederick Jackson Turner, "lenses through which we form images of our society." Population census creates an image or picture of the society we live in. According to Winston Churchill, the British Prime Minister: "first we shape our buildings and then they shape us. The same may be said of our statistics." The number or statistics obtained from census data is compared to physical building blocks of our society. - who are the people, their demographic characteristics 5- Nations with large population sizes like China, India, and the US, have to employ large number of people to count their population.

1- population - complex and massive peacetime exercises - mapping - enumerators - public campaign - canvassing - individual information 2- living in a specific nation or territory 3- Egypt, Babylonia, China, Rome, India - official population track - 1790

Population Censuses 1- The most direct way to find out how many people there are is to count them, and when you do that you are conducting a 2- The term census comes from the Latin for 3- As far as we know, the earliest governments to undertake censuses of their populations were those in the 4- The Domesday Book was not really what we think of today as a census, because it was an enumeration of " 5- In order to calculate the total population of England in 1086 from the Domesday Book, you would have to 6- unlike the Domesday Book, the Florentine catasto of 1427 recorded not only the wealth of households but also 7- the term statistic is derived from

1- population census—a complete enumeration of the population 2- "assessing" or "taxing." 3- ancient civilizations of Egypt, Babylonia, China, Palestine, and Rome 4- "hearths," or household heads and their wealth, rather than of people 5-o multiply the number of "hearths" by some estimate of household size. 6- data about each member of the household. 7- the German word meaning "facts about a state."

1- Public health improvements, as implied by their name, are viewed as 2- Medical care, on the other hand, is still viewed in many parts of the world as 3- It was not until the early twentieth century in the United States that the health of children came to be seen as a responsibility of the World War II as a Modern Turning Point 4- , there is a big difference between the more developed and less developed countries in what precipitated the drop in death rates 5- what was also the staging ground for the most amazing resurgence in human numbers ever witnessed?

1- public goods that are paid for societally, rather than individually 2- individual responsibility, not a public one 3- community, rather than just a private family matter World War II as a Modern Turning Point 4- Whereas socioeconomic development was a precursor to improving health in the developed societies, the less developed nations have been the lucky recipients of the transfer of public health knowledge and medical technology from the developed world. 5- World War II

1- Marital Status: Life expectancy differences have been observed based on marital status. It turns out that, marriage is somewhat ---and that marriage provides ----. -Singles have higher ---rates with it greater among single --- than ---. -Singles use more ---- ----seem to benefit more from marriage than ----seems to have a detrimental effect especially for men 2- Obviously, no one should get married just to prolong life, right? - societal characteristics 3- Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): is the === - IMR is often used as an index of ---. - ----used to lead in infant mortality levels, but has drooped several places. - Recent data has several ---with very high levels of IMR with ---at the top. - --- and ---have some of the lowest levels of IMR. - It is related to --- and ---levels. - In advanced and prosperous societies, protection can be --- and is ---to individuals. - ---is also available, leading to lower levels of IMR compared to less developed nations. - Education helps at the ---. Knowledge of - --- and ---- helps in lowering IMR. 4- Maternal Mortality: is an important cause of mortality almost ---women die annually due to childbirth-related causes. - The three factors affecting maternal mortality are: 5- This mortality is high in ---- compared to ---. - As per WHO (2012), the average maternal mortality level globally was ---women per 100,000 live births; - but, it was as low as --- 1 death per pregnancies in the US - and as high as 1 death per ---pregnancies in the African nation of Chad.

1- selective, protection from mortality - suicide - men than women - socially approved narcotics like alcohol and cigarettes. - Men , females - Divorce 2- maybe... no 3- number of deaths in the first year of life. - development of a country - Afghanistan - African nations, Sierra Leone - Japan and Sweden - income and education - bought and is accessible - Better nutrition - individual level - causes of infant deaths, knowledge of access to medical care - world avg is 37 for infant mortality 4- 300,000 - 1)Lack or insufficient prenatal care, 2) non-hospital deliveries, 3) unsafe abortions of unwanted pregnancies - all could be related to resources available 5- less developed nations compared to developed nations - 210 - 2,400 - 15

1- The computer allows us to transform a map into a 2- Our demographic data must then be geo-referenced 3- Geo-referencing data to places on the map means

1- set of areas (such as a country, state, or census tract), lines (such as streets, highways, or rivers), and points (such as a house, school, or a health clinic). 2- associated with some geographic identification such as precise latitude-longitude coordinates, a street address, ZIP code, census tract, county, state, or country) so the computer will link them to the correct area, line, or point 3- s we can combine different types of data (such as census and survey data) for the same place, and we can do it for more than one time (such as data for 2000 and 2010).

1- Sample surveys may provide the 2- Their principal limitation is that 3- By using a carefully selected sample of even a few thousand people, demographers have been able to ask questions about births, deaths, migration, and other subjects that reveal aspects of the

1- social, psychological, economic, and even physical data I referred to earlier as being necessary to an understanding of why things are as they are. 2- they provide less extensive geographic coverage than a census or system of vital registration. 3- why" of demographic events rather than just the "what."

1- Dual-System Estimation: determining population that are undercounted or overcounted using ---. These surveys are referred to as ---because they are conducted after the census. In this method the census count is compared with another reliable source of population data. This method involves administering a carefully constructed survey to a ===of the population after the census was taken. Post 2010 census, this survey was taken and was called the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Survey (ACE). 2- The individuals participating in the ACE survey are ---to the census and their responses (content) are checked with that they gave in the census. Typically, those counted in the census are also counted in the survey, which is ---. However, there are individuals who are counted in the survey but are not counted in the census. These are individuals who are ---. Rarely, would an individual be missed in both census and the survey. Some individuals are counted in the census bit missed in the survey, but as long as they are counted in the census is all that matters in this scenario. 3- Content error: Dual-System estimation gives us an idea if the responses that are given in the census matches the responses given to the same questions in the post-enumeration survey, such as, ACE. This check gives an idea about the ---of the content of census data-how reliable and accurate are the responses. Thus, content error in census data deals with the ---of the data that are collected. 4- Content error may occur from mistakes made in the ----by individuals, inaccurate data recording/entry of census data, and missing information, which is information that respondents did not provide. Non-response is particularly an issue if there are specific questions to which responses are not given. The better the interpretation of census questions by the population results in lower levels of ----. Thus, highly developed or industrialized nations have lower levels of content error because of ---of the general population compared to less developed nations. 5- Age can be a tricky data to collect because people have a tendency to ---information to the nearest zero or five. This leads to "---" at ages ending with zero or five. To deal with this issue, instead of asking for age, the question in US census asks ---

1- surveys - post-enumeration surveys - much smaller part 2- matched - ideal - undercounted 3- quality - accuracy 4- interpretation of census questions - content error - higher literacy levels 5- round age - age heaping - date of birth.

1- the root cause of the revolutionary increase in the world's population size and growth over the past two centuries. 2- most significant improvements ever made in the condition of human life, Defining the Health and Mortality Transition 3- Health and death are typically thought of as two sides of the same coin—morbidity and mortality, respectively— 4- At the societal level, this means that populations with high morbidity are those with 5- Within the past 200 years, and especially during the twentieth century, country after country has experienced a transition to

1- t we no longer die like flies— declining mortality, not rising fertility, 2- Human triumph over disease and early death Defining the Health and Mortality Transition 3- morbidity referring to the prevalence of disease in a population and mortality the pattern of death. 4- high mortality; 5- better health and lower death rates—

1- Knowing who should be included in the census does not, however, guarantee 2- There are several possible errors that can creep into the enumeration process. - We can divide these into the two broad categories of Coverage Error 3- The two most common sources of error in a census are 4- A census is designed to count everyone, but there are always people who are 5- The combination of the undercount and the overcount is called 6- here are several ways to measure and adjust for undercount, but it becomes more complicated (and political) when there is a

1- that they will all be found and accurately counted. 2- nonsampling error (which includes coverage error and content error and sampling error. Coverage Error 3- coverage error and content error 4- missed, as well as some who are counted more than once. 5- coverage error, or net census undercount (the difference between the undercount and the overcount). 6- differential undercount, in which some groups are more likely to be underenumerated than others.

Sources of Demographic Data 1- The primary source of data on population size and distribution, as well as on demographic structure and characteristics, is 2- The major source of information on the population processes of births and deaths is the--- - although in a few countries this task is accomplished by--- 3- Administrative data and historical data provide much of the information about

1- the census of population. 2- registration of vital statistics - sample surveys 3- population changes at the local level and about geographic mobility and migration.

1- " In some poor or remote areas of the world, sample surveys can also provide good estimates of Demographic Surveys in the United States 2- the American Community Survey (ACS), which is now a critically important part of the census itself.

1- the levels of fertility, mortality, and migration in the absence of census or vital registration data. Demographic Surveys in the United States 2- It is modeled after the Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau in collaboration with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and which for many decades has been one of the country's most important sample surveys

How Fast Is the World's Population Growing Now? 1- The rate of population growth is obviously important (it is the "explosive" part), yet 2-

1- the numbers are what we actually cope with. 2-

Components of Mortality 1- •Life Span: - LS has ---component - 122 years and 164 days - oldest rescored age 2- •Longevity: - This has --- and ---components. - This is ---or --- 3- Model of Mortality: mortality is high at the ---, then it decreases rapidly through the ----, and then it slowly ---. 4- Biological and Social/economic/political aspects of longevity - biological are the individual --- and ---with which we are born. - Biological factors relate to how strong our ---, how vulnerable we are to certain ---. - Most serious health problems take place in ---and in the first year of ---. - More than third of the variability in observed longevity in individuals are due to ----, the rest, over 60% is due to --- 5- Social influences on mortality -•Socio/economic/political infrastructure: ---; healthcare issues such as vaccination, milk pasteurization, pest control, food and shelter. 6- •Lifestyle: ---,---,---,---, and ---- 7- •Psychological influences- e.g. mortality increases with a well-publicized suicide of ---

1- the oldest age up to which humans can live. - LS has biological component. 2- the ability of humans to stay alive from one year to another. - biological and social - average length of live or age at one's death. 3- earliest part of life - mid teen years - increases 4- genetic & hereditary traits - vital organs are, diseases - early childhood, birth - hereditary reasons - social factors. 5- how wealth of a society generated and distributed 6- food habits, exercise habits, drinking, smoking, sleep (7-8 hours daily). 7- celebrities

1- Of course, if we do not have an accurate count of births, deaths, and migrants, then our demographic-analysis estimate may itself be wrong, so 2- why should we even take a census if we think we can estimate the number of people more accurately without it? 3- The dual-system estimation method involves 4-

1- this method requires careful attention to the quality of the non-census data 2- The answer is that the demographic-analysis approach usually only produces an estimate of the total number of people in any age, sex, racial/ ethnic group, without providing a way of knowing the details of the population— which is what we obtain from the census questionnaire. 3- comparing the census results with some other source of information about the people counted. 4-

Who Is Included in the Census? 1- At one extreme is the concept of the de facto population, 2- At the other extreme is the de jure population, 3- many countries, including nearly all of the Gulf states in the Middle East, have large numbers of guest workers from other countries and thus 4- n. On the other hand, a country such as Mexico, from which migrants regularly leave temporarily to go to the United States, has a 5- Most countries (including the United States, Canada, and Mexico) have now adopted a concept that lies somewhere between the extremes of de facto and de jure, and they include people in the census on the basis of 6- The census includes members of the military and the federal government who are stationed abroad.

1- which counts people who are in a given territory on the census day 2- which represents people who legally "belong" to a given area in some way or another, regardless of whether they were there on the day of the census. 3- have a larger de facto than de jure population. 4- de jure population that is larger than the de facto population. 5- usual residence, which is roughly defined as the place where a person usually sleeps 6- They are counted as belonging to the state in the United States that was their normal domicile, and in 2000 this turned out especially to benefit North Carolina, which is home to several military bases

1= oral rehydration therapy (ORT), 2- When infant mortality drops to low levels, such as in advanced nations like the United States and Canada, ---becomes the single most important reason for deaths among infants, and in many cases ---results from lack of proper care of the mother during pregnancy Mortality at Older Ages 3- what is rectangularization Sex and Gender Differentials in Mortality 4- Some of these differentials seem to be strictly ---whereas others are induced by ---although it is not always easy to tell the difference between the biological and social influences.

1- which involves administering an inexpensive glucose and electrolyte solution to replenish bodily fluids 2- prematurity - prematurity Mortality at Older Ages 3- The result of this compression of death into a narrow range at the older ages - This means that the curve of the proportion of people surviving to any given age begins to square off, rather than dropping off smoothly. Sex and Gender Differentials in Mortality 4- biological in origin (the "sex" differences), - society (the "gender" differences)—

The Fertility Transition 1- The fertility transition can begin without a decline in ---(as happened in France), but in most places it is the decline in mortality, leading to greater survival of children, that eventually motivates people to think about limiting the number of children they are having 2- At the community or societal level, the increasing number of young people creates all sorts of pressures to change, often leading to peer pressure to conform to new standards of behavior, including the deliberate --- 3- Another set of extremely important changes that occur in the context of the health and mortality transition is that the scope of life expands for ---as they, too, live longer 4- what are affected by the fertility decline

1-mortality 2- control of reproduction 3- women 4- - the health and mortality transition is itself pushed along, because the survival of children is enhanced when a woman has fewer children among whom to share resources. - the age structure, which begins to cave in at the younger ages as fewer children are being born, and as most are now surviving through childhood

1-Children and pregnant women are most at risk of dying from malaria, and in areas where the disease is endemic (constantly present), such as ---, people who survive to adulthood may have built up an immunity as a result of repeated infections 2- noncommunicable disease HIV/AIDS 3- An estimated 1.6 million people died of HIV/AIDS in 2011, making it the ---most important cause of death in the world, 4- it was devastating to several southern African countries, such as ---, where life expectancy had dropped to only 40 years in 2002 5- The disease is so perverse that it has upset the usual pattern in which the very ----and ----are more vulnerable to death than are ---, and the pattern is even emerging that --- are more at risk then --- (sex)

1-sub-Saharan Africa 2- disease that continues for a long time or recurs frequently (as opposed to acute)— often associated with degeneration HIV/AIDS 3- eighth 4- Botswana 5- young and the very old - young adults - women are more at risk than are men.

CHAPTER 3 Main Points

1. A demographic perspective is a way of relating basic population information to theories about how the world operates demographically. 2. Population doctrines and theories prior to Malthus vacillated between pronatalist and antinatalist and were often utopian. 3. According to Malthus, population growth is generated by the urge to reproduce, although growth is checked ultimately by the means of subsistence. 4. The natural consequences of population growth according to Malthus are misery and poverty because of the tendency for populations to grow faster than the food supply. Nonetheless, he believed that misery could be avoided if people practiced moral restraint—a simple formula of chastity before marriage and a delay in marriage until one can afford all the children that God might provide. 5. Marx and Engels strenuously objected to the Malthusian population perspective because it blamed poverty on the poor rather than on the evils of social organization. 6. Mill argued that the standard of living is a major determinant of fertility levels, but he also felt that people could influence their own demographic destinies. 7. Dumont argued that personal ambition generated a process of social capillarity that induced people to limit their number of children in order to get ahead socially and economically, while another French writer, Durkheim, built an entire theory of social structure on his conception of the consequences of population growth. 8. The demographic transition theory is a perspective that emphasizes the importance of economic and social development, which leads first to a decline in mortality and then, after some time lag, to a commensurate decline in fertility. It is based on the experience of the developed nations, and is derived from the modernization theory. 9. Davis's theory of demographic change and response emphasizes that people must perceive a personal need to change behavior before a decline in fertility will take place, and that the kind of response they make will depend on what means are available to them. 10. The demographic transition is really a set of transitions, including the health and mortality, fertility, age, migration, urban, and family/household transitions.

1- Demographic Perspectives: 2- Malthusian Perspective 2.1- Population, when unrestrained or unchecked, grows ---(faster rate) whereas food supply grows ---(slower rate) - pop can't keep up with food supply - implies carrying capacity might be exceeded 2.2- Human being's instinct to reproduce: problematic when subsistence (food) is not generated at equal or greater levels. Thus ---. 3- Controls to population growth 3.1- Positive checks: - common causes : natural death 3.2- Preventive checks: - limitation to births Malthus was a clergy and was in favor of ---, such as postponing marriage until ready to afford a family

2.1- geometrically , arithmetically 2.2- checks to population growth are required 3.1- common causes of mortality/death that reduced population, such as diseases, old age etc. 3.2- limitations to birth, e.g., various birth/control planning methods such as contraceptives, abstinence etc. 4- moral restraint

Age/Sex-Specific Death Rates 1- To measure mortality at each age and for each sex we must have a ---in which deaths by age and sex are reported, along with ===or other data that provide estimates of the number of people in each age and sex category Age-Adjusted Death Rates 2- It is possible to compare crude death rates for different years or different regions, but it is analytically more informative if the data are adjusted for ===prior to making those comparisons. 3- The usual method is to calculate ----for two different populations and then apply those rates to a standard population. For this reason, this method is also known as --- 4- We can apply this methodology to compare the crude death rate in Egypt in 2011 with that in the United States in that same year

Age/Sex-Specific Death Rates 1- vital registration system (or a large survey) - census Age-Adjusted Death Rates 2- differences in the age structure of the populations 3- age-specific death rates - standardization 4- We use the U.S. population as the standard weights and apply the age-specific death rates for Egypt ) to the United States age/sex structure in 2011 o see what the crude death rate would be in Egypt if its age-sex structure were identical to that of the United States.

CHAPTER 4

CHAPTER 4

CHAPTER 5 LECTURE NOTES

CHAPTER 5 LECTURE NOTES - one key feature of demographic transition is the population growth that is observed in stage two - rapid decline in death rates and a slow decline in birth rate in stage two - diseases that cause mortality in stage one and early stage two are primarily communicable diseases like polio or smallpox - The mortality in late stage two and stage three are non-communicable diseases like cardiovascular diseases and cancers - thus, There has also been a transition in the types of diseases as well from communicable to non-communicable - however, At times even at stage three, we encounter unforeseen and somewhat rare events such as the current coronavirus pandemic caused by a communicable virus - finally, they are causes of death because someone can be a victim of the social and economic environment

Canadian Surveys 1- Canada has a monthly Labour Force Survey (LFS), initiated in 1945 to track employment trends after the end of World War II.

Canadian Surveys 1- imilar to the CPS in the United States, it is a rotating panel of 56,000 households, and although its major purpose is to produce data on the labor force (hence the name), it gathers data on most of the core sociodemographic characteristics of people in each sampled household, so it provides a continuous measure of population trends in Canada.

Causes of Poor Health and Death 1- The World Health Organization puts deaths into one of three major categories: 2- Communicable Diseases 3-Malaria is an example of a complex protozoan disease typically spread by female mosquitoes first biting an infected person There are two major types of malaria:

Causes of Poor Health and Death 1- : (1) communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions (which I will just abbreviate to "communicable"); (2) noncommunicable diseases; and (3) injuries. 2- (or infectious) diseases include bacterial (such as tuberculosis, pneumonia, and the plague), viral (such as influenza and measles), and protozoan (such as malaria and diarrhea). T 3-(1) Plasmodium falciparum is the most deadly, and it is prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa, but it is less commonly found elsewhere, probably because it requires consistently high temperatures; and (2) Plasmodium vivax, which is the most common form of malaria and is found especially in Latin America and south Asia.

Chapter 5 Main Points 1. The changes over time in death rates and life expectancy are captured by the === 2. Significant widespread improvements in the probability of survival date back only to the ----and have been especially impressive since the end of ===. The drop in mortality, of course, precipitated the massive growth in the size of the human population. 3. The role played by ---in bringing down death rates is exemplified by the saying a century ago that the amount of soap used could be taken as an index of the degree of civilization of a people. 4. ----was a turning point in the transition because it led to new medicines and to a transfer of public health and medical technology all over the world, creating rapid declines in the death rate. 5. The things that can kill us are broadly categorized as ===,===,===, whereas the most important "real" cause of death in the United States (and increasingly in the world as a whole) is the use of ----. 6. Life span refers to the ---, whereas longevity is the ----. 7. Although biological factors affect each individual's chance of survival, ----also important overall determinants of longevity. 8. Among the important biological determinants of death are --- and ---, with the ---- and ---being at greatest risk, and with ----generally having higher death rates than ---. 9. Mortality is measured with tools such as the ---,----,--- 10. Living in a ----used to verge on being a form of latent suicide, but now ---tend to have lower death rates than ---areas, and rich people live longer than poor people on average.

Chapter 5 Main Points 1- perspective of the health and mortality transition. 2- nineteenth century - World War II 3- public health preventive measures 4- World War II 5- communicable diseases, noncommunicable conditions, and injuries - tobacco 6- oldest age to which members of a species can survive - ability to resist death from year to year 7- social factors are 8- age and sex - very young and the very old - males - females 9- crude death rate, the age-specific death rate, and life expectancy 10- city - cities - rural

Chapter 5 Summary and Conclusion 1- The control of disease has vastly improved the human condition and has, in the process, revolutionized life. 2- The differences between nations exist because countries are at different stages of the health and mortality transition, the shift from high mortality (largely from infectious diseases, with most deaths occurring at young ages) to low mortality (with most deaths occurring at older ages and largely caused by degenerative diseases). 3- There are many routes to low mortality, some of them involving genuine bumps in the road, such as 4- In general, females have a survival advantage over males at every age in most of the world, and a gender gap in mortality that favors 5- We have been most successful at controlling communicable diseases, 6- It is ironic, however, that our very success at creating a life that is relatively free of communicable disease and that is built on a secure food supply has produced 7- Differences in mortality within a society tend to be due to social status inequalities. 8- The social and economic disadvantages felt by minority groups, such as among blacks in the United States, often lead to 9= Marital status is also an important variable with 10- Although mortality rates are low in the more developed nations and are declining in most less developed nations, 11-

Chapter 5 Summary and Conclusion 1- Yet there are still wide variations between nations with respect to both the probabilities of dying and the causes of those death 2- The different timing is due to a complex combination of political, economic, and cultural factors. 3- the HIV/AIDS pandemic that has been gripping sub-Saharan Africa 4- women seems to be a feature of the health and mortality transition 5- hich are largely dealt with through public health measures, but medical technology has become increasingly good at limiting disability and postponing death from noncommunicable diseases, as well. 6- in its wake a transition in our pattern of nutrition that threatens to increase our risk of noncommunicable disease 7- As status and prestige (indexed especially by education, occupation, income, and wealth) go up, death rates go down 8- lower life expectancies. 9= married people tending to live longer than unmarried people 10- diseases that can kill us still exist if we relax our vigilance. 11-

Combining the Census and Vital Statistics 1- Although recording vital events provides information about the number of births and deaths (along with other events) according to such characteristics as age and sex, we also need to know - Thus, ---are typically teamed up with ---, which do include that information Administrative Data 2- , an important source of information about immigration to the United States is the compilation of 3- An administrative source of information on migration within the United States used by the Census Bureau is a 4-

Combining the Census and Vital Statistics 1- how many people are at risk of these events. - vital statistics data - census data Administrative Data 2- administrative records filled out for each person entering the country from abroad 3- set of data provided to them by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 4-

Content Error 1- Content error includes 2- . Errors can also occur if information is inaccurately 3- By and large, content error seems not to be a problem in the 4- In general, data from the United Nations suggest that the more highly developed a country is, 5- In less developed countries, content error may be more problematic because

Content Error 1- nonresponses to particular questions on the census or inaccurate responses if people do not understand the question 2- recorded on the form or if there is some glitch in the processing (coding, data entry, or editing) of the census return 3- the U.S. census, although the data are certainly not 100 percent accurate. 4- the more accurate the content of its census data will be, and this is probably accounted for largely by higher levels of education 5- interviewers may not be sufficiently trained or motivated to press respondents for accurate information

Continuous Measurement—American Community Survey 1- Almost all the detailed data about population characteristics obtained from the decennial censuses in the United States come from the 2- The success of survey sampling in obtaining reliable demographic data led the U.S. Census Bureau in 1996 to initiate a process of The Census of Canada 3- d in 1971 Canada mandated that the census be conducted every 4- As in the U.S., two census forms had been used in Canada from 1941 through the 2006 census 5- However, for the 2011 Census, Statistics Canada dropped the mandatory long form and instead implemented the - This was sent out to 30 percent of households with the caveat that responding was

Continuous Measurement—American Community Survey 1-"long form," which for several decades was administered to about one in six households 2- "continuous measurement" designed to replace the long form in subsequent decennial censuses, beginning with the 2010 census The Census of Canada 3- 5 yrs 4- —a short form for all households with just a few key items - and a more detailed long form that went to a sample of 20 percent of Canadian households 5- the National Household Survey. - voluntary, rather than compulsory.

Crude Death Rate 1- The crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of ---in a year divided by the average total --- then multiplied by --- 2- r. It is called crude because it does not take into account the differences by --- and ----in the likelihood of death. 3- Differences in the CDR between two countries could be due entirely to differences in the distribution of the population by ----, even though the force of mortality is actually the same 4- In order to account for the differences in dying by age and sex, we can calculate ---

Crude Death Rate 1- deaths - population 1,000 2- age and sex 3= age 4- age/sex-specific death rates.

Demographic Data Chapter 4 - lecture notes

Demographic Data Chapter 4 - lecture notes

Demographic Surveillance Systems 1- In Africa, many people are born, live, and die without a single written record of their existence because of the 2- The INDEPTH Network was created in 1998 to provide a way of tracking the lives of people in specific " 3-

Demographic Surveillance Systems 1- poor coverage of censuses and vital registration systems 2- "sentinel" areas of sub-Saharan Africa (and to a lesser extent south Asia) by working with individual countries to select one or two defined geographic regions that are representative of a larger population. 3-

Demographic and Health Surveys 1- This is the largest and globally most important set of demographic surveys and they are technically part of the 2- The focus is on 3- A complementary set of surveys has been conducted in poorer countries that, for a variety of reasons, have not had a Demographic and Health Survey.

Demographic and Health Surveys 1- f the Measure DHS project of ICF International in Maryland, conducted with funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). 2- fertility, reproductive health, and child health and nutrition, but the data provide national estimates of basic demographic processes, structure, and characteristics, since a few questions are asked about all members of each household in the sample 3- Known as the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), they were developed by the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and are funded by a variety of international agencies

Disability-Adjusted Life Years 1- a powerful argument that has been made strongly by labor unions and other groups that have argued for many years that if governments and/or employers will pay for health care, --- 2- It is the flip side of the idea that a high standard of living promotes good health; --- 3- The important statistical index derived from the Global Burden of Disease project is the --- - "The DALY is a ---measure that extends the concept of potential years of life lost due to premature death to include equivalent years of healthy life lost by virtue of individuals being in states of poor health or disability. 4- One DALY can be thought of as one ----and the burden of disease as a measure of the gap between --- and ---where everyone lives into old age free from disease and disability"

Disability-Adjusted Life Years 1- they will more than get their money back in increased productivity—healthy workers do more work than sick ones 2- it suggests that good health promotes a high standard of living 3- disability-adjusted life year (DALY): - health gap 4- lost year of healthy life - current health status and an ideal situation

Disease and Death over the Life Cycle 1- Humans are like most other animals with respect to the general pattern of death by age—t Infant Mortality 2- In many societies, the fragility and dependency are translated into high 3- Infant death rates are closely correlated with 4- what is the world average of infant mortality rates --- 5- what is a region of the world that has some of the highest mortality rates ever recorded for a human population

Disease and Death over the Life Cycle 1- the very young and the old are most vulnerable, whereas young adults are least likely to die. I Infant Mortality 2- h infant mortality rates (the number of deaths during the first year of life per 1,000 live births) 3- life expectancy, 4- 37 per 1,000. 5- the less developed nations, especially in equatorial Africa, infant death rates are at or above 100 deaths per 1,000 live births.

Educational and Socioeconomic Differentials in Mortality 1- One of the strongest predictors of all demographic phenomena is ---- 2- Death data for the United States in 2010 show that the age-adjusted death rate for people with at least some college was ----the level of people whose educational level was high school or less 3- Closely associated with education in all societies is ---, 4- Differences in mortality by social status are among the most pervasive ---in modern society, and the connection between ---and ---has been noticeable for a long time. 5= equal access to health services does not necessarily lead to equal health outcomes.

Educational and Socioeconomic Differentials in Mortality 1- education 2- one-third 3- socioeconomic status 4- inequalities - income and health - the higher the pay grade, the lower the death rate 5-

European Surveys 1- Declining fertility and the concomitant aging of the population in Europe has generated a renewed interest in the continent's 2- The European Social Survey (ESS) is a

European Surveys 1-demography, and there are now several surveys in Europe that capture useful demographic information. 2- a cross-national survey that has been conducted every two years across Europe since 2001 by researchers at City University London. - The survey measures attitudes, beliefs and behavior patterns, along with the demographics of populations in more than thirty European nations

GIS and the Census 1- It is a gross understatement to say that the computer has vastly expanded our 2-

GIS and the Census 1-capacity to process and analyze data. 2-

CHAPTER 2

Global Population Trends

Health and Mortality Inequalities 1- The regional differences in mortality that have emerged repeatedly in the chapter are clear reminders that cultural and economic features of societies have a ---. 2- In general, we can conclude that the early differences in urban and rural mortality were due 3- Over time, however, medical advances and environmental improvements have benefited the urban population more than the rural, leading to the current situation of the --- 4-

Health and Mortality Inequalities 1- major impact on human well-being 2- less to favorable conditions in the countryside than to decidedly unfavorable conditions in the citie 3= worst mortality conditions existing in poor rural areas and the best mortality conditions existing in the richest urban areas 4-

Historical Sources 1- Our understanding of population processes is shaped not only by our perception of current trends but also by 2- Historical sources of demographic information include 3- The results of these labors can be of considerable importance in testing our notions about how the world used to work.

Historical Sources 1- our understanding of historical events. 2- censuses and vital statistics, but the general lack of good historical vital statistics is what typically necessitates special detective work to locate birth records in church registers and death records in graveyards. 3- For example, through historical demographic research we now know that the conjugal family is not a product of industrialization and urbanization - In fact, such small family units were quite common throughout Europe for several centuries before the Industrial Revolution and may actually have contributed to the process of industrialization by allowing the family more flexibility to meet the needs of the changing economy

IPUMS—Warehouse of Global Census Data 1- It is taken for granted in North America that census data can be 2- For researchers interested in uncovering trends and patterns in the data, it is vastly preferable to have access to data from the individual census records so that detailed statistical analysis can be undertaken, as long you have the requisite statistical software such as SPSS, SAS, or STATA. - Census agencies provide these kinds of data by creating what are known as 3-

IPUMS—Warehouse of Global Census Data 1- downloaded for free from the Internet. 2- Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) 3-

Over Time, Geometric Growth Overtakes Arithmetic Growth

If we start with 100 acres supporting a population of 100 people and then add 100 acres of cultivated land per decade (arithmetic growth) while the population is increasing by 3 percent per year (geometric growth), the result is a few decades of food surplus before population growth overtakes the increase in the acres under cultivation, producing a food deficit, or "misery," as Malthus called it

Inequalities by Race and Ethnicity 1- social and economic disadvantages for the subordinate groups, and such disadvantages frequently result in lower life expectancies for the racial or ethnic minority group members 2- A large body of evidence suggests that there is a ---to health and mortality, causing marginalized peoples in societies to have lower life expectancies than you might otherwise expect 3- Even if we ignore the ----U.S. data for 2010 from the National Center for Health Statistics show that at every age up to 85, African American mortality rates are significantly higher than for the white population 4- African Americans have higher risks of death from === . 5- However, there are three causes of death, in particular, that play the most significant roles in explaining the overall difference

Inequalities by Race and Ethnicity 1- Some of the disadvantages are the obvious ones in which prejudice and discrimination lead to lower levels of education, occupation, and income and thus to higher death rates. 2- psychosocial component 3- educational differences, 4- almost every major cause of death than do whites 5- cardiovascular disease, malignant neoplasms, and cerebrovascular disease. - higher rate of heart disease for African Americans of both sexes explained partly by the stress associated with higher rates of unemployment among African Americans

Injuries 1- Despite the widespread desire of humans to live as long as possible, we have devised myriad ways to put ourselves at risk of ---or---as a result of the way in which we organize our lives and deal with products of our technology 2- Furthermore, we are the only known species of animal that routinely ---for reasons beyond pure survival, and we seem to be alone in deliberately --- 3- ---are not only more successful at killing themselves, they are also more likely to be killed by someone else. - Homicide rates (as both victims and perpetrators) are highest for ---in virtually every country 4- Homicide death rates in the ---are higher than for any other industrialized nation except Russia, possibly reflecting the cultural acceptance of --- 5- The remarkably higher rate of homicide among ---within the United States has existed for decades

Injuries 1- accidental or unintentional death 2- kills other members of the same species (homicide) - killing ourselves intentionally (suicide). 3- Men - young adult males 4-United States - violence as a response to conflict 5- African Americans

CHAPTER 1 1- Demography is the scientific study of the: 2- Population processes are: 3- In the United States, fertility levels have ____ between 1910 and 2010: 4- Europe's "demographic time-bomb" can be attributed to: 5- The world's population is growing at a rate that is much higher than it has ever been. 6- The number of people supported by available physical resources in a given area is called the: 7- In demography, "doubling time" is the: 8- South to North migration is movement of people from: 9- The population increase that occurred in the post World War II era is often referred to as: 10 - The One-child Policy of China was instituted to: 11- The fertility level in Mexico has steadily increased in the past several decades through 2015.

Introduction to Demography 1- population 2- fertility, mortality, migration 3- decreased 4- decades of fertility decline 5- false 6- carrying capacity 7- The time in which human population doubles in size 8= less developed nations to more developed nations 9- Baby Boom 10- reduce overall population growth 11- false

Lecture 1/2

Introduction to Population Dynamics - demography = The study of population - demography affects our lives with population growth affecting regional conflicts, increase immigration, affect globalization, and impact the environment negatively.

Life Span and Longevity 1= Biologists suggest that as we move past the reproductive years (past our biological "usefulness"), we undergo a set of concurrent processes know as senescence: 2- Several theories are in vogue as to why people become susceptible to disease and death as age increases. These can be roughly divided into theories of 3- Wear and tear is - But which biological mechanisms might actually account for the wearing out? 4=The planned obsolescence theories revolve around the idea that

Life Span and Longevity 1- a decline in physical viability accompanied by a rise in vulnerability to disease. 2- wear and tear" and "planned obsolescence." 3- is one of the most popularly appealing theories of aging and likens humans to machines that eventually wear out due to the stresses and strains of constant use - One possibility is that errors occur in the synthesis of new proteins within the body - . Of special concern is the possibility that errors may occur in the body's immune system so that the body begins to attack its own normal cells rather than just foreign invaders. This process is called autoimmunity. 4- each of us has a built-in biological time clock that ticks for a predetermined length of time and then is still. - It essentially proposes that you will die "when your number is up," because each cell in your body will regenerate only a certain number of times and no more.

Life Table Calculations 1- Life table calculations, as shown in Table 5.3 for U.S. females for 2010 and in Table 5.4 for U.S. males in 2010, begin with a set of ---, and the first step is to find the probabilities of dying during ---- 2- The probability of dying (nqx) between ages x and x 1 n is obtained by converting age/sex-specific death rates (nMx) to ---. - A probability of death relates the number of deaths during any given number of years ([----) to the number of people who started out being alive and at risk of dying. 3- This formula is only an estimate of the actual probability of death, because 4- The life table assumes an initial population of 100,000 live births, which is then subjected to the specific mortality schedule. These 100,000 babies represent what is called the ---

Life Table Calculations 1- age/sex-specific death rates - any given age interval 2- probabilities - that is, between any given exact ages 3- the researcher rarely has the data that would permit an exact calculation, but the difference between the estimation and the "true" number will seldom be significant. 4- radix

Life Tables 1- Although the age-adjusted death rate takes the age differences in mortality into account, it does not provide an intuitively appealing measure of the ---. 2- We would like to have a single index that sums that up, and so we turn to a frequently used index called ---, or more generally --- 3- This measure is derived from a life table, which is part of a whole statistical family of "---," and even though it is complicated, it is so widely used that 4- Life expectancy can be summarized as the average age at death for a ----of people born in a particular year and being subjected to ---experienced by people of all ages in that year 5- The expectation of life at birth for U.S. females in 2010 of 81.0 years (see Table 5.3) does not mean that the average age at death in that year for females was 81.0. - What it does mean is that if all the females born in the United States in the year 2010 had the same risks of dying throughout their lives as those indicated by the age-specific death rates in 2010, then their average age at death would be 81.0.

Life Tables 1- overall mortality experience of a population 2- expectation of life at birth - life expectancy. 3- survival analysis 4- hypothetical group - the risks of death 5-

Main Points ch4 1. In order to study population processes and change, you need to know how many people are ===, how many are ---, how many are ---, how many are ---, and ---. 2. A basic source of demographic information is the ---, in which information is obtained about all people in a given area at a specific time. 3. Not all countries regularly conduct censuses, but most of the population of the world has been enumerated since ---. 4. Errors in the census typically come about as a result of ---(the most important source of error, including coverage error and content error) or ---. 5. It has been said that censuses are important because if you aren't counted, ---. 6. Information about births and deaths usually comes from vital ---—data recorded and compiled by government agencies. The most complete vital registration systems are found in the most ---, while they are often nonexistent in ---. 7. Most of the estimates of the magnitude of population growth and change are derived by combining ---(as well as administrative data), using the demographic balancing equation. 8. Sample surveys are sources of information for places in which census or vital registration data ----or where reliable information can be obtained less expensively by sampling than by conducting a census. 9. --- and ---are important sources of historical information about population changes in the past. 10. Spatial demography involves using ---to analyze demographic data from a spatial perspective, thus contributing substantially to our understanding of how the world works.

Main Points ch4 1- alive - being born - dying - moving in and out - why these things are happening 2- population census 3- 2000 4- nonsampling errors - sampling errors 5- you don't count 6- registration records - highly developed nations - less developed areas 7- census data with vital registration data 8- do not exist 9= Parish records and old census data 10-geographic information systems

Marital Status and Mortality 1- who lives longer, married people or unmarried peepds 2- A long-standing explanation for this phenomenon is that marriage is selective of healthy people; that is, 3- Another explanation is that marriage is good for your health: protective, not just selective 4- The flip side of marriage being good for you is that the ---

Marital Status and Mortality 1- It has long been observed that married people tend to live longer than unmarried people. - This is true not only in the United States but in other countries as well 2- people who are in ill health may have both a lower chance of marrying and a higher risk of death. 3- Marriage may be associated with social and psychological support that keeps men, in particular, from committing suicide or from abusing themselves with alcohol and cigarettes, - and that also provides a more nurturing environment when a person is ill. - It is probably also protective in economic terms 4- ending of a marriage elevates the risk of death

Maternal Mortality 1- A very special category of "communicable" diseases, as defined by WHO, is that associated with --- and --- 2- Although global campaigns to reduce maternal death have been very effective, it is still true that nearly ----women die each year with ---percent of those deaths occurring in developing nations 3- These deaths leave a trail of tragedy throughout the world, and there are three factors, in particular, that increase a woman's risk of death when she becomes pregnant: 4- Women are obviously only at risk of a maternal death if they ---, and maternal death rates attempt to take that risk into account 5- we must use the number of -----as an estimate of how many pregnancies have occurred within a group of women. - the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) measures the number of maternal deaths per ===

Maternal Mortality 1- pregnancy and childbirth. 2- 300,000 - 99 3- : (1) lack of prenatal care that might otherwise identify problems with the pregnancy before the problems become too risky; (2) delivering the baby somewhere besides a hospital, where problems can be dealt with immediately; and (3) seeking an unsafe abortion because the pregnancy is not wanted. 4- become pregnant 5- live births - 100,000 live births

Measuring Coverage Error 1- The two principal methods used are 2- The demographic analysis approach uses 3- The demographic balancing equation says that

Measuring Coverage Error 1- (1) demographic analysis (DA), and (2) dual-system estimation (DSE) (which typically involves a post-enumeration survey). 2- the demographic balancing equation to estimate what the population at the latest census should have been, and then compares that number to the actual count 3- the population at time 2 is equal to the population at time 1 plus the births between time 1 and 2, minus the deaths between time 1 and 2, plus the in-migrants between time 1 and 2, minus the out-migrants between time 1 and 2.

Mexican Surveys 1- Mexico conducts several regular national household surveys, one of which in particular is 2= The National Survey of Occupation and Employment (Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo [ENOE]) is a 3- As with the CPS and LFS, the goal is

Mexican Surveys 1- comparable to the CPS and the LFS 2-large (120,000 household) sample of households undertaken three times a year by INEGI and is designed to be representative of the entire country. 3- to provide a way of regularly measuring and monitoring the social and economic characteristics of the population beyond just data on current employment.

Neighborhood Inequalities 1- In the nineteenth century in Europe and the United States, death rates were clearly highest in the ---. - The recognition of these differences was, in fact, a motivating force behind many of the ---that we now take for granted in cities of richer countries 2- There have been renewed concerns, however, about the disproportionate risks (often referred to as environmental injustice or inequality) that --- 3- At the same time, there are emerging health issues in disadvantaged neighborhoods with regard to risks of ===and --- --- 4- This is exacerbated by the general lack of availability of grocery stores that stock fresh food in such neighborhoods—the so-called " 5-

Neighborhood Inequalities 1- poorer neighborhoods - public health measures 2- poorer residents of cities now face from the location of hazardous materials near their neighborhoods 3- obesity and diabetes, that follow from reliance on packaged and fast foods. 4- food desert" phenomenon 5-

Registration of Vital Events 1- what are known as vital events, and when they are recorded by the government and compiled for use they become vital statistics 2- Initially, the information collected about deaths indicated only the cause (since one goal was to keep track of the deadly plague), but starting in the eighteenth century 3- Today, we find the most complete vital registration systems in the ---and the least complete (often nonexistent) systems in the ---. 4- Although most nations have a system of birth and death registration that is separate from census activities, dozens of countries, mostly in Europe, maintain 5- Even though registers are expensive to maintain, many countries that could afford them, such as the United States, tend to avoid them because of

Registration of Vital Events 1- Births and deaths, as well as marriages, divorces, and abortions, - These statistics are the major source of data on births and deaths in most countries 2- the age of those dying was also noted 3- most highly developed countries - least developed countries 4- population registers, which are lists of all people in the country, and which can be used as a substitute for a census, 5- the perceived threat to personal freedom that can be inherent in a system that compiles and centralizes personally identifying information.

Sampling Error 1- how is sampling error is introduced into the results 2- However, in a scientific sample, such as that used in most census operations, sampling error is readily measured based on 3- To a certain extent, sampling error can be controlled 4- how is sampling error will be relatively small 5- what probably reduce the quality of results more than sampling error

Sampling Error 1- If any of the data in a census are collected on a sample basis (as is done, for example, in the United States, Canada, and Mexico), 2- the mathematics of probability 3- samples can be designed to ensure comparable levels of error across groups or across geographic areas 4- if the sample is very large, 5- Nonsampling error and the biases it introduces throughout the census process

Summary and Conclusion ch 4 1-Censuses are the most widely known and used sources of data on 2- However, the modern series of more scientific censuses dates only from the 3- The high cost of censuses, combined with the increasing knowledge we have about the value of surveys, has meant that even so-called complete enumerations often include 4- Knowledge can also be gleaned from administrative data gathered for nondemographic purposes. These are particularly important in helping us measure 5- it is not just the present that we attempt to measure; 6- Our ability to know how the world works is increasingly enhanced by incorporating our demographic data into a g 7- Spatial demography expands our demographic perspective into a 8-

Summary and Conclusion ch 4 1-populations, and humans have been counting themselves in this way for a long time 2- e late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. 3- some kind of sampling. 4- migration. 5- historical sources of information can add much to our understanding of current trends in population growth and change. 6- a geographic information system, permitting us to ask questions that were not really answerable before the advent of the computer. 7- geographic realm about which demographers have long been aware, but only recently have been able to analyze. 8-

The "Real" Causes of Death 1- The World Health Organization has worked diligently over the years to try to standardize those causes under a set of guidelines called the --- 2- This enhances ---, but it ignores the ---that contribute to that death 3- There is a vast amount of literature in the health sciences tracing the ---of the diseases listed on death certificates, and in a path-breaking analysis, 4- The winner in the actual-cause-of-death sweepstakes was— ---. 5- The second most important "real" cause of death in the United States relates to the --- and ----patterns of the U.S. population,

The "Real" Causes of Death 1- International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 2- comparability - actual things going on 3- etiology (origins) 4- tobacco 5- diet and activity - Most of these deaths are due to obesity - The principal activity pattern of concern is the lack thereof—a couch potato lifestyle.

The Census of Mexico 1- The 2000 census was the first in Mexico to use a 2- Furthermore, the sampling strategy was a bit different than in the United States and Canada. 3- . In 1995 and again in 2005, Mexico conducted a mid-decade census, which it calls a " 4- The Conteo uses only the 5- In Mexico, all census forms are administered in

The Census of Mexico 1- combination of a basic questionnaire administered to most households, plus a lengthier questionnaire administered to a sample of households, and this was replicated in the 2010 census 2- Most of the questions are asked of all households, and the sample involves asking 10 percent of households to respond to a set of more detailed questions about topics included in the basic questionnaire. 3- "Conteo," to distinguish it from the decennial censuses. 4- basic questionnaire, and does not include a sample to receive the extended questionnaire. 5- in person by census takers hired by INEGI. Neither mail-back nor Internet forms are yet available.

Chapter 5

The Health and Mortality Transition

L3 Objectives

Upon completion of this lesson you will be able to: -Analyze census data for a specific area/region (assignment) -Use census.gov website - Perform basic summary analysis of census data from census site.

L4 Objectives

Upon completion of this lesson you will be able to: -Recall important concepts in mortality transition. - Apply concepts of mortality transition to a specific scenario-sub-Saharan Africa. - Identify and analyze how communities developed plans to make treatment available in rural inaccessible areas.

. To analyze the demography of a particular society, we need to know

how many people live there, how they are distributed geographically, how many are being born, how many are dying, how many are moving in, and how many are moving out. we have to know about the social, psychological, economic, and even physical characteristics of the people and places being studied. Furthermore, we need to know these things not just for the present but for the past as well.

How Fast?: - Here we are introduced to population growth rate, absolute growth, and doubling time-all of which measures population growth 1- •Population Growth Rate (Percent) - has ---. - World population is now growing at a much ---than in the past. 2- •Absolute Growth (Numbers): is still ---, but ---people being added annually; lower ---. - Absolute growth depends on the ---of the population. - If you build upon 7 billion people at only 1.15% annual growth rate, you are still adding ---million people yearly. 3- In 1800, --- were added each year - In 2050, --- (projection) will be added each year 4- Doubling Time: --- - indicates the ---. - It only took about ---for population to double from 3 to 6 billion. 5- - Could population double again from 6 to 12 billion? - It is likely that global population will not double again. Why?

1- - decreased - lower rate 2- - increasing - fewer - population momentum - size - 84 3- - 4 million - over 50 million 4- - Time (years) in which population doubles in size; - pace of population growth - 40 years 5- - it is very likely that the worlds pop will not double because we are reaching the peak

1- people on average 2- It is quite likely that the Industrial Revolution occurred in part because 3- There can be little question why the term population explosion was coined to describe 4- The world's population did not reach 1 billion until after the - The 2 billion mark was hit in - The United Nations expects that we will reach

1- (births - deaths) 2- of this population growth. 3- the world's population increasing dramatically 4- American Revolution—the United Nations fixes the year at 1804 - in 1927, just before the Great Depression - 8 billion in 2023, 9 billion in 2040, 10 billion in 2061, and we could be very close to 11 billion by 2100—an incredible elevenfold increase in only three centuries

The Theory of Demographic Change and Response 1-How (and under what conditions) can a mortality decline lead to a fertility decline? 2- Why advocate postponement of marriage and sexual gratification rather than contraception when you know that few people who postpone marriage are actually going to postpone sexual intercourse, too? 3- In the early eighteenth century, Richard Cantillon, an Irish-French economist, was pointing out what happened in Europe when families grew too large (and this was even before mortality began markedly to decline): 4- But what will be the response of that second generation, the children who now have survived when previously they would not have, and who have thus put the pressure on resources? 5- Davis suggests that the most powerful motive for family limitation is not fear of poverty or avoidance of pain as Malthus argued; rather, it is 6- Davis's analysis is important in reminding us of the crucial link between the

1- , Kingsley Davis (1963) asked what happens to individuals when mortality declines - The answer is that more children survive through adulthood, putting greater pressure on family resources, and people have to reorganize their lives in an attempt to relieve that pressure; that is, people respond to the demographic change - But note that their response will be in terms of personal goals, not national goals 2- Ludwig Brentano (1910) quite forthrightly suggested that Malthus was insane to think that abstinence was the cure for the poor 3- if they do not find enough employment in the neighboring town they must go further afield or change their occupation to get a living 4- ? Davis argues that if there is in fact a chance for social or economic improvement, then people will try to take advantage of those opportunities by avoiding the large families that caused problems for their parents 5- the prospect of rising prosperity that will most often motivate people to find the means to limit the number of children they have - Of course, that assumes the individuals in question have already attained some status worth maintaining 6- everyday lives of individuals and the kinds of population changes that take place in society.

Global Variation in Population Size and Growth 1- World population is currently growing at a rate of 2- The most rapidly growing regions in the world tend to be - ; whereas the slowest growing are

1- 1.15 percent annually, implying a net addition of 84 million people per year, but there is a lot of variability underlying those global numbers 2- e in the mid-latitudes, and these are nations that are least developed economically—the "global south"; - the richer nations, which tend to be more northerly and southerly

The Marxian Perspective 1- Several German states and Austria had responded to what they believed was overly rapid growth in the number of poor people by legislating against marriages in which the applicant could not guarantee that his family would not wind up on welfare 2- Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels' demographic perspective thus arose

1- As it turned out, that scheme backfired on the German states, because people continued to have children, but out of wedlock. - Thus, the welfare rolls grew as the illegitimate children had to be cared for by the state 2- in reaction to Malthus.

L2 Objectives

1- Compare and contrast Marxian and Malthusian perspectives. 2- Interpret and apply Demographic Transition Theory. 3- Compare and contrast Transition of multiple nations.

Immigration ◦The need for immigrants and the debate - Immigration is another demographic process that can affect our lives. In this slide I bring up the need for immigrants in highly industrialized nations and some of the issues that are prevalent in countries where immigrants originate. 1- ◦---creates a demand for immigration usually in developed nations like US, Canada, UK, etc. 2- ◦Canada is the most --- 3- ◦US accepts the most --- - Issues in sending countries 4- ◦Population has not declined as rapidly as expected but ---not enough to sustain the increasing population, e.g., Mexico. 5- ◦Substantial declines in birth rates in Europe for decades has increased the need for workers. This need is filled by migrants from former European colonies like India, Pakistan, Senegal, and Turkey. This flow of immigrants from developing to developed countries can cause "---" in the developing countries that might have benefited from them.

1- Declining population of working age 2- accepting nation for immigrants (per capita) 3- immigrants in absolute numbers 4- job growth 5- brain drain - benefiting developed nations/ takes away skilled individuals from developing nations

1- doctrine as opposed to theory. 2- In the process of sorting out the evidence, 3- In demography, as in all of the sciences, theories replace doctrine when

1- Early thinkers were certain they had the answers and certain that their proclamations represented the truth about population growth and its implications for society. - By contrast, the essence of modern scientific thought is to assume that you do not have the answer and to acknowledge that you are willing to consider evidence regardless of the conclusion to which it points. 2- we develop tentative explanations (hypotheses and then theories) that help guide our thinking and our search for understanding 3- new, systematically collected information (censuses and other sources discussed in the next chapter) becomes available, allowing people to question old ideas and formulate new ones.

Immigration (contd.): 1- Reverse immigration from Latin America to Europe post 9/11. - effect: 2- Europe's Demographic Time-bomb - why migration to Europe from Latin America increased post 9/11/ 3 - Immigrant integration problematic in US as well, but - Contrarily, Japan is largely closed to immigration, although population is declining. This is resulting in ---

1- Immigration to the US became harder. 2- - ◦Low fertility and declining population - ◦Immigrants cause of population growth because they are usually young and of reproductive age - positive b/c immigrants help meet the demand of labor and natural increase - ◦Immigration creates societal issues related to differences in cultures, language, religion etc. 3- - as immigrants assimilate/acculturate in the US, they become fabric of the nation, as though the nation keeps renewing itself. - sluggish economic growth. - stagnation

Critique of Malthus 1- t later in the nineteenth century both sides in the debate over ending slavery in the United States called upon Malthusian arguments to bolster their case, even though 2- The three most strongly criticized aspects of his theory have been 3- Malthus was not a firm believer in progress; rather, he accepted the notion that each society had a fixed set of institutions that established a stationary level of living.

1- Malthus himself was vociferously opposed to slavery. 2- (1) the assertion that food production could not keep up with population growth, (2) the conclusion that poverty was an inevitable result of population growth, and (3) the belief that moral restraint was the only acceptable preventive check. 3- He was aware, of course, of the Industrial Revolution, but he was skeptical of its long-run value and agreed with the physiocrats that real wealth was in agricultural land.

1- why it is impossible to be a demographic determinist? 2- Without knowledge of population dynamics, for example, 3-

1- There is no guarantee, however, about how a society will react to demographic change. - Demographic change does demand a societal response, but different societies will respond differently, sometimes for the better, sometimes not 2- we cannot fully understand why the world is globalizing at such a rapid pace, nor can we understand the roots of conflict from the Middle East to Southeast Asia; nor why there is a simultaneous acceptance of and a backlash against immigrants in the United States and Europe. 3-

Two questions have to be answered before you will be able to develop your own perspective:

(1) What are the causes of population change; and (2) What are the consequences of population change?

1- Modern demography is the study of the determinants and consequences of population change and is concerned with effectively everything that influences and can be influenced by:

● population size (how many people there are in a given place) ● population growth or decline (how the number of people in that place is changing over time) ● population processes (the levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and migration that are determining population size and change and that can be thought of as capturing life's three main moments: hatching, matching, and dispatching) ● population spatial distribution (where people are located and why) ● population structure (how many males and females there are of each age) ● population characteristics (what people are like in a given place, in terms of variables such as education, income, occupation, family and household relationships, immigrant and refugee status, and the many other characteristics that add up to who we are as individuals or groups)

Redistributing Global Population Growth through Migration 1- - One of the ramifications of population explosion is the ; meaning some balancing of population achieved through migration. 2-Streams of people flowing from rapidly --areas to ---rapidly growing areas. 3- Past example: 4- Contemporary example:

1- - redistribution of gliobal population 2- - growing - less 3- - Europeans to various global destinations (developed to developing) 4- Latin America to US, Asia to Canada (developing to developed)

1- - Demography: - Origins: Demos (---); graphien (---) 2- - In demography we study anything that is affected or changed by population, such as:

1- - scientific study of population. - people, to write about 2- - size, growth, processes, distribution, structure characteristics

1- Population Dynamics Processes: 2- Please remember that the population size of a place is only affected by

1- •Fertility •Mortality •Migration - these three population processes are central to our understanding of demography/population dynamics. 2- births, deaths, and in and out migration.

Immigration (contd.): - Globalization: Includes democratic processes 1- ◦Globalization initiated because of ---in developed nations caused by decreases in mortality due to ---. 2- ◦Medical advances ("---") were introduced to developing nations via United Nations programs, which, in turn, led to population increases (---). 3- ◦Availability of ---in developing nations who will work for lower wages. 4- ◦Removal of ---in developing nations. 5- ◦Increase in ---in developing nations that has a liking/desire for goods and products used in richer nations: fast food, music, cars etc.

1- - increase in population - medical advances 2- - death control technology - explosion 3- skilled population 4- protectionist trade barriers 5- consumers

The Urban Revolution 1- Until very recently in world history, almost everyone lived in basically rural areas. Large cities were few and far between.

1- It is estimated that as recently as 1800, less than 1 percent of the world's population lived in cities of 100,000 or more. Nearly half of all humans now live in cities of that size.

1- Demography is defined as.... 2- The term itself comes from... 3- Guillard defined demography as...

1- the scientific study of human populations 2- the Greek root demos, which means people, and was coined in 1855 by Achille Guillard, who used it in the title of his book Elements de Statistique Humaine ou Démographie Comparée 3- "the mathematical knowledge of populations, their general movements, and their physical, civil, intellectual and moral state"

"Past is a foreign country." (Hartley 1967) - ◦Example of the US 1910-2010 ◦US population has increased almost 3.4 times but the share of US population decreased slightly (5.1 to 4.5%). ◦29 year increase in female life expectancy ◦Fertility levels decreased (3.5 to 1.9) ◦Percent foreign-born reduced ◦81% urban from 46% ◦High school graduates increased ◦Household size decreased ◦Mexican immigration increased and Italian immigration decreased (1900-1910 and 1990-2000)

- This is an example of how the various aspects of population can change that renders a nation almost unrecognizable (in terms of population) between two points in time. - This is a comparison of the population of the US between 1910 and 2010 and as you can see that the changes are rather drastic between the two points in time such that US in 1910 may appear as a foreign country when compared to the US in 2010. - looks like a different nation

1- Of course, Malthus was aware that starvation rarely operates directly to kill people, since something else usually intervenes to kill them before they actually die of starvation. This "something else" represents what Malthus calls 2- There are also preventive checks— 3- However, to Malthus the only acceptable means of preventing a birth was to exercise 4- As a scientific theory, the Malthusian perspective leaves much to be desired, since he was wrong about

1 - positive checks, primarily those measures "whether of a moral or physical nature, which tend prematurely to weaken and destroy the human frame" - Today we would call these the causes of death. 2- limits to birth. - In theory, the preventive checks would include all possible means of birth control, including abstinence, contraception, and abortion 3- moral restraint; that is, to postpone marriage, remaining chaste in the meantime, until a man feels "secure that, should he have a large family, his utmost exertions can save them from rags and squalid poverty, and their consequent degradation in the community" 4- how quickly the food supply could increase and because he constantly confuses moralistic and scientific thinking

Mexico and Central America 1- •Mexico's population makes up about ---% in the region remaining nations make up for the rest. Mexico's population was ---million in 2015. The total regional population including Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize is ---million as of 2010. 2- •Before Spanish Invasion (1519), Mexico's population experienced an 80% decline (---) due to diseases and violence. Even in the early 1930s, the life expectancy was low at about ---years only. However, since 1930s, mortality started declining, and birth rates remained high and population exploded. Since the 1970s, Mexico's birth rate started declining to due to ---that promoted smaller families and provided family planning. By 2015, women in Mexico were having ---children in their lifetime on the average compared to a high of six that existed for many years. Mexico also now enjoys high --- at 79 years for women, which is greater than world average. Describe the population dynamics of Mexico? 3- •The other Central American nations, like Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, have a high percentage of ---who have high fertility levels that are higher than the world average. Costa Rica is an exception where fertility level is ---and life expectancy is ---. In fact, Costa Rica's life expectancy is higher than US and has below replacement fertility levels, which causes this country to rely on ---from neighboring nations.

1- - 75 - 125 - 152 2- - population implosion - 30 - governmental policies - 2.2 - life expectancy 3- - indigenous population - low - high - immigrant workers

China 1- •1.3 billion Chinese and about a fifth of world's population is of ---origin. •In 1982, China conducted complete population enumeration (Census) for the first time since 1964. Population of 1980 was slightly greater than ---. 2- •Population Control Policies •Since 1960s, birth rates in China started ---. Governmental philosophy was ---,---, and --- - This philosophy was formally translated into the ---in 1979 at which point, fertility had already started declining. 3- •Between 1963-1983, fertility in China had reduced from --- to ---! Most rapid drop ever seen. - •Currently, China's fertility is low with --- children born per woman which is below replacement. 4- - •The number of females in the reproductive ages, between 25-45, is ---in China now because high growth in the past. - This leads to high birth levels even though population growth rates is similar to that of US. Around 2012, China added 11 million to its population by primarily birth each year, where as the US adds 2.5 million including immigration. - •China took advantage of its "---" that led to its much envied economic growth.

1- - Chinese - 1 billion - very high 2- - declining - later (marriage), longer (birth intervals) and fewer (children). - one-child policy 3- - 7.5 to 2.5 - most rapid drop ever seen - 1.5 4- - high - despite the policies - demographic dividend - huge pop that was in working age and more industrialized = increase in productivity

Understanding Population Explosion (Rapid Recent Increases) - we elaborate on why population increased following the Industrial Revolution. - Along with population explosion, it is a good idea to know another term: population implosion that is already taking place in some regions in the world. 1- After Industrial Revolution (1750), death rates ---in Europe, N. America, and then in the developing world. Standard of living ---: nutrition, shelter, water, sanitation. 2-Population explosion occurred first in the ---that also experienced economic boom. - After ---, public health advanced spread globally (into developing nations) and causing reduction in mortality, resulting in a huge increase in population. 3- Population Implosion: term coined by --- and ---, - means a ---. - This is a - However, some nations are experiencing population implosion, e.g. Germany, Italy, and Japan. These nations might be vulnerable to the pressure from ---from developing/less developed nations whose population is expected to grow (think demand and supply).

1- - declined - improved 2- - current developed world - World War II 3- - Eberstadt and Wattenberg - decrease in earth's population - hypothetical scenario that has not occurred yet globally. - international migration - because pop is declining in more developed nations and that demand is fulfilled by developing nations. because birth rates are low in developed nations

South Asia: (most populous India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) 1- •India's population is 1.3 billion with land area smaller than China. India has moderate ---- a woman has ---children on average. 2- - Annual population growth rate is ---%, which is ---world average. - Death rates have ---, but fertility levels have ---leading to continual population growth. - Population growth and momentum have reduced in India as well from the past. India adds about ---million people every year primarily through ---increase. 3- Cultural diversity causes --- - •India's population is not homogeneous and is culturally diverse. Most states have different language and customs. This leads to disparity in ---and ---. - This diversity also leads to implementing unified population policy difficult. Southern Indian states are more literate and developed than the northern states. Fertility in southern states is ---replacement levels by mid 1990s, while only 4 northern states make up for 40% of the nation's population. 4- Pakistan and Bangladesh •India's independence from the British in 1947 created two other nations: Pakistan and Bangladesh. India and Bangladesh have ---fertility levels (Bangladesh's just slightly lower at 2.3), while Pakistan's is ---at 3.8 children per women. Among these three nations, ---'s population growth rate is also the highest.

1- - fertility level - 2.4 2- - 1.5 - above - reduced - not declined rapidly - 19 - natural 3- - differential population dynamics - economic development - population growth - below 4- - similar - greater - Pakistan

1- One of the ways Europeans dealt with increase in population was ---. It is also referred to as European expansion. - While European expansion occurred in the past, in current times, the migration flow is occurring from --- to --- - This is often referred to as the ---. 2- European Expansion - Started by 14th century when --- - Gained momentum by 19th century when population of Europe increased rapidly due to ---. - Europeans looked for opportunities, because ---,---,--, and --- caused status instability in Europe. - If ---presented in new lands off shore discovered by pioneers, it was sought after. 3- Proportion of Europeans in the World -Before expansion, Europeans made up about ---% of the world's population with ---% residing in Europe. -After expansion, which peaked in the 1930s, European population was almost ---% of the world's population distributed between Europe, Oceania, and North America. -Around 2000, their global share was about 16% and is expected to ----to about 13% by 2050. - due to expansion in other parts of the globe 4- ---- - European population was greater than populations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America until circa 1930 when European expansion peaked, but after that the trend reversed. Then on, population of less developed nations started increased and migration initiated from less developed nations to more developed nations. New migrants can alter the population structure of a region due to births. In 2003, more than 50% of all births in California were to Latino mothers. Non-Hispanic whites are no longer majority in California. By 2050, Hispanics are expected to be the majority in California. This is because California's immigrant population is predominantly Hispanic and immigrants from the developing tend to have higher fertility rates. However, this pattern also depends on the socioeconomic level of the immigrants.

1- - out-migration - less developed nation to more developed or richer nations. - South to North migration 2- - Europeans searched for less developed parts of the world. - industrialization - rapid urbanization, new occupations, financial panic, and competition - opportunity 3- - 18 - 90 - 35 - almost double - decline 4- South to North Migration

Current State of World's Population - History of Global Population 1- 10K years ago, population of the world was ---- just before the Agricultural Revolution - As the population of world grew, strain was put on the resources leading to issues related to ---. - How much population can the planet support or a nation support? This is the concept of ---. 2- Carrying Capacity- 3- Industrial Revolution (1750): - Just prior to industrial revolution, population of earth was increasing at about ---per year. - Carrying capacity of ---was not keeping pace, which probably spurred ---

1- - 4 million - sustainability - carrying capacity 2- - number of people supported by available physical resources in a given area and it is dependent on how people use these resources. (Ex farmable land) - Pre-agricultural revolution, population of the planet equaled carrying capacity of the way of life i.e. hunting and gathering society. 3- - 2 million - agricultural society - industrial revolution.

1- Examples of Premodern Doctrines 2- Modern Theories 3- 1971-present

1- - Book of Genesis—"Be fruitful and multiply." - Confucius—Population growth is good, but governments should maintain a balance between population and resources - Plato—Population quality more important than quantity; emphasis on population stability. 2- - Malthus—Population grows exponentially while food supply grows arithmetically, with misery (poverty) being the result in the absence of moral restraint - Neo-Malthusian—Accepting the basic Malthusian premise that population growth tends to outstrip resources, but unlike Malthus believing that birth control measures are appropriate checks to population growth. - Marxian—Each society at each point in history has its own law of population that determines the consequences of population growth; poverty is not the natural result of population growth 3- - Decomposition of the demographic transition into its separate transitions—Health and mortality, fertility, age, migration, urbanization, and family and household.

1- Post-industrialization Population Explosion: - After industrialization, there was an increase in population due to many --- 2- Since 1974, every ---, 1 billion people were being added to the planet. 3- Is the population of the world still increasing? Short answer is ---. - Peak at around ---in 2100 per UN Population Division projections (medium growth scenario)

1- - World population increased to 6 billion in only 300 years. - advances in the areas of medical sciences 2- 12-13 years 3- - Yes, but not for too long - 11 billion

1- The original model of the demographic transition is divided roughly into three stages. - In the first stage there is ---because both birth and death rates are high. - The second stage is the ---from high to low birth and death rates. During this stage the growth potential is realized as the death rate drops before the birth rate drops, resulting in ----. - Finally, the last stage is a time when death rates are as ---as they are likely to go, while fertility may continue to decline to the point that the population might eventually decline in numbers 2- Modernization theory is based on the idea that - example - It is a ----level theory that sees human actors as being buffeted by changing social institutions Critique of the Demographic Transition Theory 3- It has been argued that the concept underlying the demographic transition is that population stability, also known as --- is the normal state of affairs in human societies and that change (the "transition") is what requires explanation 4- the demographic transition theory has not been capable of predicting levels of ---,or---,or---of the fertility decline. - This is because the initial explanation for the demographic behavior during the transition tended to be --- 5- Perhaps, then, the modernization theory, in and of itself, did not provide an appropriate picture of historical development

1- - high growth potential - transition, rapid population growth - low 2- in premodern times human society was generally governed by "tradition," and that the massive economic changes wrought by industrialization forced societies to alter traditional institutions - ex: "In traditional societies fertility and mortality are high. In modern societies fertility and mortality are low. In between, there is demographic transition" - macro, 3- homeostasis 4- mortality or fertility or the timing - ethnocentric 5- when mortality did decline, it did so as a consequence of internal economic development, not as a result of a foreign country bringing in sophisticated techniques - the factors leading to the demographic transition were actually different from what for years had been accepted as true.

1- In the US, we start with our history in terms of ---. - An interesting fact is that early in American history, the population increased by --- not by --- 2- Distribution and Variation of World's Population - •Most populous nations: - These nations make for almost half (---%) of the world's population. - •Top 10 populous nations make for almost ---% of the world's population. - •Neighboring nations, ---and---, make for about 37% of the global population. 3- United States •History of US population - •In the 1650, there were only about 50,000 Europeans and 2-3 million Native Americans. The population of Native Americans reduced to 250,000 due to ---and ---, and that for Europeans increased to 25 million. - indicates stark nature of how pop changes over time 4- - •In early America, in the New England region, ---were high and ---low. - ---rates were also low- e.g., in the Plymouth Colony, it lower than some of the less developed nations of today. So, the population was generally healthy. 5- - •In the south, the conditions were ---and spread of diseases like malaria and yellow fever was easier. - •Initially (1790s), the US population increased due to ---(more births than deaths). Common perception is due to ---.

1- - population composition - births and not by immigration. 2- - China, India, US, Indonesia, Brasil. - 47 - 60 - India and China 3- - warfare and diseases 4- - birth rates and mortality rates were low - Infant mortality 5- - harsher - natural increase - immigration

Reformulation of the Demographic Transition Theory 1- One of the most important social scientific endeavors to cast doubt on the classic explanation was the ---, directed by Ansley Coale 2- the history of fertility change in Spain was not explained by a simple version of the ---. - Fertility in Spain declined in contiguous areas that were culturally similar, even though the levels of urbanization and economic development might be different 3- secularization - how is it associated with fertility declines - what are accompanied by secularization - ---has been identified as one (indeed, probably the most important) potential stimulant to such altered attitudes 4- Building on the concept of spatial demography, it was found that areas sharing a similar ---were more likely to share a decline in fertility than areas that were culturally less similar 5-

1- European Fertility Project 2- demographic transition theory - it became apparent that economic development may be a sufficient cause of fertility decline, but not a necessary one 3- Secularization is an attitude of autonomy from otherworldly powers and a sense of responsibility for one's own well-being - one of the more common similarities in those areas that have undergone fertility declines is the rapid spread of secularization - industrialization and economic development are virtually always accompanied by secularization - Education 4- culture (same language, common ethnic background, similar lifestyle) 5-

1- Immigration

1- Globalization of the labor force has significantly broadened the ancient relationship between jobs and geography by bringing jobs to people in developing countries. . For most of human history, a lack of jobs meant that young people moved to where the jobs were. Even as some jobs are heading to developing countries, many young people in those countries are headed to the richer countries, facilitated by what I call the "demographic fit" between the young age structures of developing countries and the aging populations in richer countries. - laves places and causes low birthrate and declines labor force

Premodern Population Doctrines pt.4 1- Mercantilist doctrines were supported by the emerging demographic analyses of people like 2- who is sometimes called the father of demography 3- discovered 4- Graunt "opened the way both for the later discovery of 5- Harrison and Carroll (2005) note that Graunt's studies are thought by many people to mark the beginning of

1- John Graunt, William Petty, and Edmund Halley (all English) in the seventeenth century, and Johann Peter Süssmilch, an eighteenth-century chaplain in the army of Frederick the Great of Prussia (now Germany). 2- John Graunt, a Londoner - analyzed the series of Bills of Mortality in the first known statistical analysis of demographic data 3- for every 100 people born in London, only 16 were still alive at age 36 and only 3 at age 66- suggesting very high levels of mortality - With these data he uncovered the high incidence of infant mortality in London and found, somewhat to the amazement of people at the time, that there were regular patterns of death in different parts of London 4- uniformities in many social or volitional phenomena like marriage, suicide, and crime, and for a study of these uniformities, their nature and their limits; thus he, more than any other man, was the founder of statistics" 5- social science as we know it today, not just statistics or demography.

Regional Conflict

1- One reaction to population growth is to accept or even embrace the change and then seek positive solutions to the dilemmas presented by an increasingly larger (or smaller, for that matter) younger population (or older population)—you get the idea. 2- Another reaction, of course, is to reject change. This is what the Taliban has been trying to do for decades in parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan—to prevent a society from modernizing by force and, in the process, keeping death rates higher than they might otherwise be and maintaining women in an inferior status by withholding access to education, paid employment, health care, and the means of preventing pregnancy

1- - ---is the number of children born woman to a woman for a population to be able to replace itself from one generation to the next. 2- •From the mid 1800s, immigration was ---. Between 1850-1920, immigrants accounted for as much as ---% of the population growth every decade. 3- •By 1930, fertility in the US dropped to ---and ---almost halted, leading to stagnation of population. 4- •Post WWII, in mid 1940s, Baby Boom occurred due to sustained peace and economic growth leading to population growth. Then, the late 1960s and 1970s were marked by Baby Bust leading to population ---. 1980s were marked by ----, which is an echo effect of Baby Boom. 5- •Since 1980s, fertility levels hovered at or ---. 6- •Immigration contributed to substantial population ---in the 1960s (when discriminatory immigration laws were revoked) and in the 1990s (when immigration regulations were relaxed). About ---immigrants (documented and undocumented) are added each year to the US, accounting for almost ---% of the annual population growth. 7- •Immigrants are usually of ---and on average have fertility levels that are ---. There is variation in fertility levels among various immigrant groups.

1- Replacement level fertility 2- - substantial - 20 3- - below replacement level - immigration 4- - decline - Baby Boomlet 5- -below the replacement level 6- - increase - 1 million - 40 7- - reproductive age - above replacement

Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 1- North America 2- United States

1- The United States and Canada—North America—have a combined population of 361 million as of 2015, representing just under 5 percent of the world's total. - The demographic trajectories of the two countries are intertwined but are not identical. 2- the population of the United States has undergone a total transformation since John Cabot (an Italian hired by the British to search the new world) landed in Newfoundland in 1497 and claimed North America for the British. - Early America was a model of demographic decimation for the indigenous population, while being a model of rapid population growth for the European-origin population. - the population was doubling in size every 25 years - Though Americans may picture foreigners pouring in seeking freedom or fortune, it was not until the last third of the nineteenth century that migration became a substantial factor in American population growth - Throughout the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the birth rate in the United States was falling due to limited fertility and immigration restrictions - The early post-World War II era upset forecasts of population decline to be replaced by the realities of a population explosion. The result was the period from 1946 to 1964 generally known as the "baby boom" era - also the 1960s and then again in the 1990s adjustments of the nation's immigration laws opened the doors wider.

Globalization 1- Regional conflict is one response to population growth, but a less violent, albeit still controversial, response has been globalization. 2-

1- The pros and cons of this process invite heated debate, but an important, yet generally ignored, element of globalization is that it is closely related to the enormous increase in worldwide population growth that took place after the end of World War II 2- Control over mortality, which has permitted the growth of population, occurred first in the countries of Europe and North America, and it was there that population first began to grow rapidly in the modern world, gaining steam in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. However, after World War II, death control technology was spread globally, especially through the work of various UN agencies, funded by the governments of the richer countries.

Premodern Population Doctrines 1- Until about 2,500 years ago, human societies probably shared a common concern about population: 2- In two of the more developed areas of the world 2,500 years ago, however, 3- Plato, writing in The Laws in 360 b.c., emphasized the importance of 4- n the Roman Empire, the reigns of Julius and Augustus Caesar were marked by clearly pronatalist doctrines—a necessity, given the very high mortality that characterized the Roman era

1- They valued reproduction as a means of replacing people lost through universally high mortality. 2- awareness of the potential for populations to grow beyond their resources prompted comment by well-known philosophers - In the fifth century b.c., the writings of the school of Confucius in China discussed the relationship between population and resources - Nonetheless, the idea of promoting population growth was clear in the doctrine of Confucius 3- population stability rather than growth. - Specifically, Plato proposed keeping the ideal community of free citizens (as differentiated from indentured laborers or slaves who had few civil rights) at a constant 5,040 - The number of people desired by Plato was still moderately small, because Plato felt that too many people led to anonymity, which would undermine democracy, whereas too few people would prevent an adequate division of labor and would not allow a community to be properly defended. 4- In approximately 50 b.c., Cicero noted that population growth was seen by the leaders of Rome as a necessary means of replacing war casualties and of ensuring enough people to help colonize new lands.

The Relationship of Population to Resource 1- Food: 2- Water: 3- Energy: 4- Housing and Infrastructure: 5- Environmental Degradation:

1- This especially impacts less developed countries with rapidly rising food demands and small energy reserves - raises the fear that the world may have surpassed its ability to sustain even current levels of food production, 2-An estimated one in three humans already face water scarcity, as demand for water increases faster than the available supply of fresh water 3- Our rising standard of living is directly tied to our increasing use of energy, yet every increment in demand is another claim on those resources. 4- All of the future population growth in the world is expected to show up in the cities, especially those in developing countries. The irony of growing more food is that it requires mechanization, rather than more laborers - building homes (which requires lumber, cement, and a lot of other resources) and providing urban infrastructure (water, sewerage, electricity, roads, telecommunications, etc.) for those 2 to 3 billion newcomers. This increasing "demographic overhead" is burdensome, particularly for those countries that already cannot adequately provide for their urban populations 5- As the human population has increased, so has its potential for disrupting the earth's biosphere. The very same explosion in scientific knowledge that has allowed us to push death back to ever older ages, thus unleashing population growth, has also taught us how to convert the earth's natural resources into those things that comprise our higher standard of living

World Population Growth - Brief History 1- Modern human beings have been around for at least 200,000 years - For almost all of that time, humans were hunter-gatherers living a primitive existence marked by high fertility, high mortality, and at best only very slow population growth - Given the very difficult exigencies for survival in these early societies, it is no surprise that the population of the world on the eve of the Agricultural Revolution (also known as the Neolithic Agrarian Revolution)... 2- Carrying capacity refers to 3- Since hunting and gathering use resources extensively rather than intensively

1- about 10,000 years ago is estimated to have been only 4 million people 2- the number of people that can be supported indefinitely in an area given the available physical resources and the way in which people use those resources 3- it was natural that over tens of thousands of years humans would move inexorably into the remote corners of the earth in search of sustenance. - Eventually, people in most of those corners began to use the environment more intensively, leading to the more sedentary, agricultural way of life that has characterized most of human society for the past 10,000 years

Demography: scientific study of population - How regional conflict can be facilitated by demographic changes. - Impact of Demography felt in most aspects of life - Regional conflict 1- ◦Afghanistan: 2- ◦Iran: 3- ◦Israel-Palestine conflict: 4- ◦Sub-Saharan Africa:

1- by rejecting modernization by Taliban there is a purposeful stagnation of society. For example, lower status of women can lead to negative consequences such as high maternal mortality. 2- revolution of 1978 accelerated due to large pool of young, unemployed men who migrated from rural areas to Tehran. 3- "Youth bulge," which is a large population of youth can make a volatile situation as in this region even more unstable, although it does not have to be so. 4- Orphans created by HIV/AIDS can be recruited for warfare or subject to child-trafficking.

Riding the Age Wave 1- A key demographic with which societies must cope is the 2- The baby boom is still having an impact, but now the big question has become: How will the country finance the retirement and the health care needs of baby boomers as they age and retire?

1- changing age structure 2- As the older cohorts begin to squeeze national systems of social insurance, legislative action will be required to make long-run changes in the financing and benefit structure of these systems if they are to survive. As noted above and as I will discuss later in the book, immigration is one solution, but it comes with a lot of other costs attached - Delaying retirement is probably the easiest change to make, at least in the abstract. - Increased self-reliance is another proposed solution, requiring people when younger to save for their own retirement through mandatory contributions to mutual funds and other investment instruments. - It may also be, when the time comes, that taxes will be raised on younger people in order to bail out older people who, in fact, did not save enough for their retirement.

Cohort Size Effects 1- People who share something in common represent a ---and in population studies we usually focus especially on people who share the same age (or at least age range) in common 2- cohorts represent a --- - This idea was first popularized by Norman Ryder several decades ago (Ryder 1965) with the concept of --- - what does it refer to 3- The ---hypothesis (also sometimes known as the relative income hypothesis) is based on the idea that the birth rate does not necessarily respond to absolute levels of economic well-being but rather to levels that are relative to those to which one is accustomed 4- Easterlin's thesis presents a model of society in which --- and ---are closely interrelated. - Economic changes produce demographic changes, which in turn produce economic changes, and so on. The idea of a demographic ---, which is at the core of Easterlin's thinking, is compelling, and relative cohort size is certainly a factor that will influence various kinds of social change 5- But what about the situation that prevails in an increasing number of countries with relatively small cohorts of young adults who are not responding as the Easterlin hypothesis would suggest?

1- cohort 2-potential force for change. - demographic metabolism. - This refers to the ongoing replacement of people at each age in every society. 3- Easterlin relative cohort size 4- demographic change and economic change - feedback cycle 5- Rather than marrying earlier and having more children, they are postponing marriage and having even fewer children. - one reaction to these unexpected trends is to suggest that parts of the world are experiencing something that goes beyond our ordinary ideas about the demographic transition

Why Was Early Growth So Slow? 1- The reason the population grew so slowly during the first 99 percent of human history was that 2- As humans settled into agricultural communities, population began to increase at a slightly higher rate than during the hunting-gathering era, and BocquetAppel (2008) has called this the 3- Initially it was thought that birth rates remained high but death rates declined slightly because of the more steady supply of food, and thus the population grew. However, 4- It should be kept in mind, of course, that only a small difference between

1- death rates were very high. 2- Neolithic Demographic Transition 3- However, archaeological evidence combined with studies of extant hunter-gatherer groups has offered a somewhat more complicated explanation for growth during this period - Fertility rates did, indeed, rise as new diets improved the ability of women to conceive and bear children (see Chapter 6). Also, it became easier to wean children from the breast earlier because of the greater availability of soft foods, which are easily eaten by babies. This would have shortened the birth intervals, and the birth rate could have risen on that account alone, and to a level higher than the death rate, thus promoting population growth. 4- birth and death rates is required to account for the slow growth achieved after the Agricultural Revolution.

Why Are More Recent Increases So Rapid? 1- The acceleration in population growth after 1750 was due largely to the 2- In the more developed countries, declines in mortality at first were due to 3- Later, especially after 1900, much of the decline in mortality was due to 4- almost all the growth of the world's population is originating in 5- Between 2015 and 2050, the medium projections of the United Nations suggest that the world will add 2.2 billion people. Only ---percent of this increase is expected to occur in the more developed nations. The less developed nations (excluding the least developed) will account for ---percent of the increase, and the least developed will account for ---percent.

1- declines in the death rate that came about as part of the scientific revolution that accompanied the Industrial Revolution. 2- the effects of economic development and a rising standard of living—people were eating better, wearing warmer clothes, living in better houses, bathing more often, drinking cleaner water, and so on 3- improvements in public health and medical technology, including sanitation and especially vaccination against infectious diseases 4- less developed nations. - In the less developed countries, although the risk of death has been lowered dramatically, birth rates have gone down less quickly, and the result is continuing population growth. 5- 2 , 59, 39

1- Population growth is an irresistible force because... 2- The rise in life expectancy over the past two centuries, and most dramatically since the end of World War II, is the most important phenomenon in human history because...

1- every social, political, and economic problem facing the world today has demographic change as a root cause. 2- people living longer has produced unprecedented population growth and previously unthinkable transformations in human society. t this past is definitely prologue to your own future, as the world's population will continue to increase for the rest of your life

1- Size: 2- Growth: 3- Processes: 4- Distribution: 5- Structure: 6- Characteristics:

1- existing/ absolute number of people (in a place/ nation) 2- change- increase or decrease 3- fertility, mortality, migration (important: births, deaths, moving in/ out) 4- where population is located and why 5- number of females and males at different ages (gender and age) 6- socioeconomic status of people- education, income, occupation, household/family relationships etc.

1- Physiocrats also believed that 2- Central to Smith's view of the world was the idea that 3- Smith differed slightly from the physiocrats, however, on the idea of what led to wealth in a society. Smith believed that - From this idea sprang the belief that there is a natural harmony between 4- Thus, Smith felt that population size is determined by 5- These ideas are important to us because Smith's work served as an inspiration for the

1- free trade (rather than the import restrictions demanded by Mercantilists) was essential to economic prosperity. - This concept of "laissez-faire" (let people do as they choose) was picked up by Adam Smith, a Scotsman and one of the first modern economic theorists 2- if left to their own devices, people acting in their own self-interest would produce what was best for the community as a whole 3- wealth sprang from the labor applied to the land (we might now say the "value added" to the land by labor), rather than it being just in the land itself. - economic growth and population growth, with the latter depending always on the former 4- the demand for labor, which is, in turn, determined by the productivity of the land. 5- Malthusian theory of population, as Malthus himself acknowledges

The Prelude to the Demographic Transition Theory -Mill 1- Mill was not as quarrelsome about Malthus as Marx and Engels had been; 2- Mill accepted the Malthusian calculations about the potential for population growth to outstrip food production as being axiomatic (a self-truth), but he was more optimistic about human nature than Malthus was. 3- Mill's basic thesis was that the standard of living is a 4- The belief that people could be and should be free to pursue their own goals in life led him to reject 5- One of Mill's most famous comments is that "the niggardliness of nature, not the injustice of society, is the cause of the " 6- This is a point of view conditioned by Mill's reading of Malthus, but Mill denies the Malthusian inevitability of 7- In the event that population ever did overrun the food supply, however, Mill felt that it would likely be a temporary situation with at least two possible solutions: 8- The ideal state from Mill's point of view is that in which 9- It was Mill's belief that before reaching the point at which both population and production are stable, there is essentially a race between the two. If social and economic development are to occur,

1- his scientific insights were greater than those of Malthus at the same time that his politics were less radical than those of Marx and Engels. 2- Mill believed that although your character is formed by circumstances, one's own desires can do much to shape circumstances and modify future habit 3- major determinant of fertility levels: "In proportion as mankind rises above the condition of the beast, population is restrained by the fear of want, rather than by want itself. 4- the idea that poverty is inevitable (as Malthus implied) or that it is the creation of capitalist society (as Marx argued). 5- penalty attached to overpopulation 6- a population growing beyond its available resources 7- import food or export people 8- all members of a society are economically comfortable - t the population would stabilize and people would try to progress culturally, morally, and socially instead of attempting continually to get ahead economically 9- there must be a sudden increase in income, which could give rise to a new standard of living for a whole generation, thus allowing productivity to outdistance population growth.

comparing population data for the United States in the year 1910 with that of the year 2010

1- in 1910 there were fewer than 2 billion people on the planet, whereas by 2010 there were nearly 7 billion 2- Although the U.S. population grew considerably during that century, from 92 million to 309 million, it did not keep pace with overall world population growth and so accounted for a slightly smaller fraction of the world's population in 2010 than it had in 1910 3- Mortality levels in the U.S. dropped substantially over the century, leading to a truly amazing 29-year rise in life expectancy for females, from 52 in 1910 to 81 in 2010, with men lagging behind just a bit 4- Fertility also declined over the century between 1910 and 2010, although by world standards fertility in the United States in 1910 was already fairly low (3.5 children per woman), having dropped from an estimated 7 children per woman at the beginning of the nineteenth century. 5- Americans rearranged themselves spatially within the country over that span of time, and the considerable westward movement is exemplified by the increase in the fraction of the population living in California. It went from only 3 percent in 1910 to 12 percent in 2010 7- In the latter part of the twentieth century, much of that growth in Los Angeles was fueled by immigrants from Mexico and Central America, but over the course of the century the composition of international immigrants had shifted substantially. In the decade preceding the 1910 census, there were about 123,000 Mexican immigrants to the United States, compared to 1.2 million Italian immigrants in the same time period. By contrast, in the decade leading up to the census in 2010, the numbers were essentially reversed, with 28,000 Italian immigrants and 1.7 million Mexican legal immigrants, 8- The past was young, with 32 percent under the age of 15 and only 4 percent aged 65 and older; whereas the present is older, with only 20 percent under 15 and 13 percent aged 65 and older 9- The past was predominantly rural, and the present is predominantly urban 10- In the past, people were considerably less well educated than today, with only about 10 percent of those in 1910 achieving a high school education, compared to 87 percent now

Causes of Population Growth 1-Malthus believed that human beings, like plants and nonrational animals, are "impelled" to 2- We humans, though, have not accomplished anything nearly so impressive. Why not? Because of the 3- According to Malthus, the ultimate check to growth is 4- A cornerstone of his argument is that populations tend to grow 5- while he believed (incorrectly, as Darwin later pointed out) that food production could be increased only

1- increase the population of the species by what he called a powerful "instinct," the urge to reproduce. - Further, if there were no checks on population growth, human beings would multiply to an "incalculable" number, filling "millions of worlds in a few thousand years" 2- the checks to growth that Malthus pointed out—factors that have kept population growth from reaching its biological potential for covering the earth with human bodies 3- lack of food (the "means of subsistence" - . In turn, the means of subsistence are limited by the amount of land available, the "arts" or technology that could be applied to the land, and "social organization" or land ownership patterns 4- more rapidly than the food supply does, since population has the potential for growing geometrically 5- arithmetically, by adding one acre at a time. - This led to his conclusion that in the natural order of things, population growth will outstrip the food supply, and the lack of food will ultimately put a stop to the increase of people (

The Theory of the Demographic Transition 1- demographic transition theory 2- Warren Thompson gathered data from "certain countries" for the period 1908-27 and showed that the countries fell into three main groups, according to their patterns of population growth: 3- Frank Notestein (1945) picked up the threads of his thesis and provided labels for the three types of growth patterns that Thompson had simply called A, B, and C. Notestein called the Group A ----, the Group B ----, and the Group C ---- 4- The term population explosion, alluded to by Davis, refers to the phase that Notestein called ----. Thus was born the term demographic transition.

1- it described the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates, with an interstitial spurt in growth rates leading to a larger population at the end of the transition than there had been at the start 2- - Group A (northern and western Europe and the United States): very high rates of natural increase to having very low rates of increase - Group B (Italy, Spain, and the "Slavic" peoples of central Europe): the death rate will decline as rapidly or even more rapidly than the birth rate for some time yet - Group C (the rest of the world): w little evidence of control over either births or deaths 3- - pattern incipient decline - pattern transitional growth - pattern high growth potential 4- transitional growth

1- The issue of population growth was more than idle speculation, because we 2- The rising interest in population encouraged the publication of two important essays on population size 3- The population had, in fact, increased during the Mercantilist era, although probably not as a result of any of the policies put forth by its adherents. However, it was less obvious that the population was ex- 4- One of the more famous reactions against Mercantilism was that mounted in the middle of the eighteenth century by François Quesnay - Whereas Mercantilists argued that wealth depends on the number of people, Quesnay turned that around and argued that 5- The essence of Quesnay's view

1- know with a fair amount of certainty that the population of England, for example, doubled during the eighteenth century 2- one by David Hume (1752 [1963]) and the other by Robert Wallace (1761 [1969]), 3- better off ex- Rather, the Mercantilist period had become associated with a rising level of poverty 4- the number of people depends on the means of subsistence (a general term for level of living). 5-called physiocratic thought, was that land, not people, is the real source of wealth of a nation. - In other words, population went from being an independent variable, causing change in society, to a dependent variable, being altered by societal change.

1- In the ----, the population continues to grow quickly, especially in absolute terms, not just in terms of rates of growth. 2- Yet, in the ---population growth has slowed, stopped, or in some places even started to decline. 3- ---tend to have high proportions of people who are young, poor, prone to disease, and susceptible to political instability. The countries that are ---tend to have populations that are older, richer, and healthier, and these are the nations that are politically more stable

1- less developed nations 2- more developed countries 3- more rapidly growing countries , growing slowly or not at all

1- What kinds of ideas and attitudes might encourage people to rethink how many children they ought to have? - To answer this kind of question we must shift our focus from the 2- A popular individual-level perspective is that of --- - The essence of RAT is that human behavior is the result of --- 3- The process of modernization (---changes) eventually results in the tearing apart of large, extended family units into smaller, nuclear units that are economically and emotionally self-sufficient (---changes) 4- As the ---reverses and parents begin to spend their income on children, rather than deriving income from them, the economic value of children vanishes 5- modernization reduces the demand for children and so fertility falls—if people are rational economic creatures, then this is what should happen. - But --- 6- One strength of reformulating the demographic transition is that 7-

1- macro (societal) level to the micro (individual) level and ask how people actually respond to the social and economic changes taking place around them. 2- rational choice theory (RAT) - individuals making calculated cost-benefit analyses about how to act and what to do. 3- the macro-level , micro-level 4- wealth flow 5- the real world is more complex, and the diffusion of ideas can shape fertility (and other demographic) behavior along with, or even in the absence of, the usual signs of modernization. 6- nearly all other perspectives can find a home here 7-

1- How Does Demography Connect the Dots? and ex 2- The changes taking place all over the world in family structure are not the result of a breakdown of social norms so much as they are ...

1- nearly everything is connected to demography; demography affects nearly every facet of your life in some way or another. ex: Population change is one of the prime forces behind social and technological change all over the world. 2- the natural consequence of societies adapting to the demographic changes of people living longer with fewer children in a world where urban living and migration are vastly more common than ever before

Geographic Distribution of the World's Population 1- The five largest countries in the world account for 2- These countries include 3-

1- nearly half the world's population (an estimated 47 percent in 2015) but only 21 percent of the world's land surface. 2- China, India, the United States, Indonesia, and Brazil 3-

Neo-Malthusians 1-Those who criticize Malthus's insistence on the value of moral restraint, while accepting many of his other conclusions, are typically known as 2- Specifically, neo-Malthusians favor 3- Eventually, the widespread adoption of birth control meant that fertility could be 4- As I noted earlier, part of Malthus's significance lies in the storm of controversy his theories stimulated. Particularly vigorous in their attacks on 5-

1- neo-Malthusians 2- contraception rather than simple reliance on moral restraint. 3- controlled within marriage, allowing couples to respond to economic changes in ways that were not anticipated by Malthus's principle of population 4- Malthus were Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels 5-

Consequences of Population Growth 1- Marx and Engels especially quarreled with the Malthusian idea that resources could 2- Engels argued in 1865 that whatever population pressure existed in society was really pressure against 3- Instead, they said, poverty is the result of a - Implicit in the writings of Marx and Engels is the idea that the normal consequence of 4- Furthermore, Marx argued that capitalism worked by using the labor of the - Thus, the poor were not poor because they overran the food supply, but 5-

1- not grow as rapidly as population, since they saw no reason to suspect that science and technology could not increase the availability of food and other goods at least as quickly as the population grew 2- the means of employment rather than against the means of subsistence 3- poorly organized society, especially a capitalist society - population growth should be a significant increase in production 4- working classes to earn profits to buy machines that would replace the laborers, which, in turn, would lead to unemployment and poverty - only because capitalists had first taken away part of their wages and then taken away their very jobs and replaced them with machines 5-

1- Globalization of the labor market exists, in essence, because... 2- The likelihood goes up with two other demographically related factors:

1- of the nature of world demographic trends. At the same time, the sheer volume of population growth in less developed countries is not a guarantee that jobs will head their way from richer countries. 2- (1) declining fertility; and (2) increasing education

How Many People Have Ever Lived? 1- our current contribution to history's total represents 2- (T/F) - The fact that we have gone from 1 billion to 7 billion in little more than 200 years indicates that majority of people ever born must surely still be alive. 3- Keyfitz's formulas estimate the number of people who have ever lived, assuming conservatively that we started with two people (call them "Adam and Eve" if you'd like) 200,000 years ago 4- You can appreciate that the number of people ever born is influenced by 5- The vast increase in numbers is not the only important demographic change to occur in the past few hundred years.

1- only a relatively small fraction of all people who have ever lived. 2- False 3- The results of these calculations suggest that a total of 62.6 billion people have been born, of whom the 7.3 billion estimated to be alive in 2015 constitute 11.7 percent - There is no reasonable calculation, however, that generates a value much higher than 11.7, so we can safely assume that only a small fraction of humans ever born are now alive, although the percentage is constantly getting higher because of our ever larger population size. 4-the length of time you believe humans have been around, and by the estimate of the birth rate 5- There has also been a massive redistribution of population

Avoiding the Consequences 1- Borrowing from John Locke, Malthus argued that "the endeavor to avoid 2- You will recall that Condorcet had suggested the possibility of birth control as a preventive check, but Malthus objected to this solution: 3- So the only way to break the cycle is to change human nature - He saw that as impossible, though, 4- To summarize, the major consequence of population growth, according to Malthus, is 5- Within that poverty, though, is the stimulus for action that can lift people out of misery. So,

1- pain rather than the pursuit of pleasure is the great stimulus to action in life" 2- "To remove the difficulty in this way, will, surely in the opinion of most men, be to destroy that virtue, and purity of manners, which the advocates of equality, and of the perfectibility of man, profess to be the end and object of their views" 3- Malthus felt that if everyone shared middle-class values, the problem would solve itself - however, not everyone has the talent to be a virtuous, industrious, middle-class success story, but if most people at least tried, poverty would be reduced considerably. 4- poverty 5- if people remain poor, it is their own fault for not trying to do something about it. - For that reason, Malthus was opposed to the English Poor Laws (welfare benefits for the poor), because he felt they would actually serve to perpetuate misery.

Causes of Population Growth 1- Neither Marx nor Engels ever directly addressed the issue of why and how 2- they were in favor of equal rights for men and women and saw no harm in 3- they were skeptical of the ---stated by Malthus that 4- t. The basic Marxian perspective is that 5- - For capitalism, ---, - whereas for socialism, 6- if Malthus was right about his "pretended 'natural law of population'" (Marx 1890 [1906]:680), then

1- populations grew - They seem to have had little quarrel with Malthus on this point 2- preventing birth 3- eternal or natural laws of nature as - (that population tends to outstrip resources), preferring instead to view human activity as the product of a particular social and economic environment. 4- each society at each point in history has its own law of population that determines the consequences of population growth 5- - the consequences are overpopulation and poverty - population growth is readily absorbed by the economy with no side effects 6- Marx's theory would be wrong.

Consequences of Population Growth 1- Malthus believed that a natural consequence of population growth was 2- This is the logical end result of his arguments that 3- In his analysis, Malthus turned the argument of Adam Smith upside down. Instead of population growth depending on the demand for labor, as Smith (and the physiocrats) argued, Malthus believed that 4- Malthus believed that this cycle of increased food resources, leading to population growth, leading to too many people for available resources, leading then back to poverty, was part of 5- In this way, he essentially blamed poverty on

1- poverty 2- (1) people have a natural urge to reproduce, and (2) the increase in the food supply cannot keep up with population growth. 3- the urge to reproduce always forces population pressure to precede the demand for labor. - Thus, "overpopulation" (as measured by the level of unemployment) would force wages down to the point where people could not afford to marry and raise a family. 4- a natural law of population. - Each increase in the food supply only meant that eventually more people would live in poverty 5- the poor themselves

Premodern Population Doctrines pt.2 1- The Middle Ages in Europe, which followed the decline of Rome and its transformation from a pagan to a Christian society, were characterized by a combination of both 2- The early and highly influential Christian leader, mystic, and writer Augustine (a.d. 354-430) believed 3- The time between the end of the Roman Empire (fifth century a.d.) and the Renaissance (fifteenth century a.d.) was an economically stagnant, fatalistic period of European history - While Europe muddled through the Middle Ages, Islam (which had emerged in the seventh century a.d.) was expanding throughout the Mediterranean. - Muslims took control of southern Italy and the Iberian peninsula and, under the Ottoman Empire, controlled the Balkans and the rest of southeastern Europe 4- By the fourteenth century, one of the great Arab historians and philosophers, Ibn Khaldun, was in Tunis writing about the benefits of a growing population

1- pronatalist and antinatalist Christian doctrines. 2- - that abstinence was the best way to deal with sexuality (an antinatalist view), - but the second-best state was marriage, which existed for the purpose of procreation (a pronatalist view). 3- Europe's reaction to this situation was the Crusades, a series of wars launched by Christians to wrestle control away from Muslims - these expeditions were largely unsuccessful from a military perspective, but they did put Europeans into contact with the Muslim world, which ultimately led to the Renaissance—the rebirth of Europe 4- n. In particular, he argued that population growth creates the need for specialization of occupations, which in turn leads to higher incomes, concentrated especially in cities:

Environmental Degradation 1- Caused by --- 2- - ◦Atmosphere: - ◦Hydrosphere: - ◦Lithosphere: 3 - ◦How can we live in a sustainable manner? - ◦Is it possible to maintain our current standard of living by using less resources per capita (per person)? 4- - ◦Demographic Fatigue: - ◦--of developed nations to the population problems in developing nations. - ◦Mostly hear about --- and --- - ◦In this inter-connected world, there is no "---." In some ways were are all in it.

1- rampant use of earth's resources - due to demand, consumerism, increasing pop 2- - Ozone layer depletion, global warming - contamination of water sources - leaching of toxic waste into topsoil, desertification, deforestation 3- - using less reduces standard of living - 4- - becoming numb to population issues in other nations and not being able to relate to it as the population problems in developed nations are different. - Desensitization - population decline here (US) and problems of immigration. - their problem

1- Mill argued that it was fear of social slippage that motivated people to limit fertility below the level that Malthus had expected. Dumont went beyond that to suggest that 2- He believed that ---would undercut the desire for upward social mobility and would thus stimulate the birth rate 3- Dumont was concerned primarily with the causes of ---, focusing mainly on the --- 4- Émile Durkheim, based an entire social theory on the consequences of --- 5- Durkheim proposed that "the ---varies in direct ratio with the volume and density of societies, and, if it progresses in a continuous manner in the course of social development, it is because societies become regularly --- and more ---" 6- Durkheim proceeded to explain that population growth leads to greater societal specialization because 7- in industrialized societies there is a lot of differentiation; that is, there is an increasingly long list of occupations and social classes. Why is this?

1- social aspiration was a root cause of a slowdown in population growth 2- socialism 3- population growth, birth rate 4- population growth. 5- division of labor , denser and more voluminous 6- the struggle for existence is more acute when there are more people. 7- The answer is in the volume and density of the population. Growth creates competition for society's resources, and in order to improve their advantage in the struggle, people specialize.

1- The basic characteristic of a youth bulge is that 2- children who resist the army recruiters may find themselves sold into slavery, which is part of a larger global problem of child trafficking (International Labour Organization 2013). This kind of abuse of children is not caused by demographic trends, but

1- t a large fraction of the total population falls into the age range of approximately 15 to 29—old enough to be considered a young adult, but still young enough not to necessarily have settled into a job and family. We might think of this as an "incendiary" age group. 2- the demographic structure of society contributes to the problem by creating a situation where disproportionate numbers of children are available to be exploited.

Premodern Population Doctrines pt.3 1- an influential Dominican monk, Thomas Aquinas, argued that marriage and family building were not inferior to celibacy, thus implicitly promoting the idea that 2- The seventeenth and eighteenth centuries witnessed an historically unprecedented trade (the so-called Columbian Exchange) 3- This rise in trade, prompted at least in part by 4- Mercantilism maintained that - The catch (however) 5- Mercantilist writers sought to encourage it by a number of means, including

1- t population growth is an inherently good thing. 2- of food, manufactured goods, people, and disease between the Americas and most of the rest of the world 3- population growth, generated the doctrine of Mercantilism among the new nation-states of Europe 4- a nation's wealth was determined by the amount of precious metals it had in its possession, which were acquired by exporting more goods than were imported, with the difference (the profit) being stored in precious metals. - The catch here was that a nation had to have things to produce to sell to others, and the idea was that the more workers you had, the more you could produce. - Thus population growth was seen as essential to an increase in national revenue, 5- penalties for non-marriage, encouragements to get married, lessening penalties for illegitimate births, limiting out-migration (except to their own colonies), and promoting immigration of productive laborers. - It is important to keep in mind that these doctrines were concerned with the wealth and welfare of a specific country, not all of human society.

1- Mill was convinced that an important ingredient in the transformation to a non-growing population is that 2- Mill, like Marx, was a champion of equal rights for both sexes, He reasoned further that a system of national education for poor children would provide them with 3- Arsène Dumont was a late-nineteenth-century French demographer who felt he had discovered a new principle of population that he called " - what is it - where did the idea come from 4- To ascend the social hierarchy often requires that sacrifices be made, and Dumont argued that

1- t women do not want as many children as men do, and if they are allowed to voice their opinions, the birth rate will decline 2- he "common sense" (as Mill put it) to refrain from having too many children. 3- "social capillarity" - refers to the desire of people to rise on the social scale, to increase their individuality as well as their personal wealth - The concept is drawn from an analogy to a liquid rising into the narrow neck of a laboratory flask. The flask is like the hierarchical structure of most societies, broad at the bottom and narrowing as you near the top 4- having few or no children was the price many people paid to get ahead

The Prelude to Malthus 1- Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat, marquis de Condorcet, belied that 2- Condorcet thus saw prosperity and population growth 3- Godwin's Enquiry Concerning Political Justice and Its Influences on Morals and Happiness appeared in its first edition in 1793, revealing his ideas that scientific progress would enable the food supply to grow far beyond the levels of his day, and that such prosperity 4- Thomas Robert Malthus - Although he wanted to be able to embrace such an openly optimistic philosophy of life, he felt that

1- that technological progress has no limits: "With all this progress in industry and welfare which establishes a happier proportion between men's talents and their needs, each successive generation will have larger possessions, either as a result of this progress or through the preservation of the products of industry, and so, as a consequence of the physical constitution of the human race, the number of people will increase" 2- increasing hand in hand, and if the limits to growth were ever reached, the final solution would be birth control 3- would not lead to overpopulation because people would deliberately limit their sexual expression and procreation. - Furthermore, he believed that most of the problems of the poor were due not to overpopulation but to the inequities of the social institutions, especially greed and accumulation of property 4- intellectually he had to reject it. In doing so, he unleashed a controversy about population growth and its consequences that rages to this very day

Critique of Marx 1- Socialist countries have had trouble because of 2- Unfortunately, he offered no guidelines for the transition period. At best, Marx implied that the socialist law of population should be the antithesis of the capitalist law 3- Moreover, birth rates dropped to such low levels throughout Marxist Eastern Europe in the years leading up to the breakup of the Soviet Union that it was no longer possible to claim 4-

1- the lack of political direction offered by the Marxian notion that different stages of social development produce different relationships between population growth and economic development. 2- ex: If the birth rate were low under capitalism, then the assumption was that it should be high under socialism; if abortion seemed bad for a capitalist society, it must be good for a socialistic society. 3- (as Marx had done) that low birth rates were bourgeois. 4-

Redistribution of the World's Population through Migration 1- As populations have grown unevenly in different areas of the world, - This pattern is predictable enough that we label it the 2- In earlier decades, the shortage of jobs generally occurred when the population grew dense in a particular region, and people then 3- European Expansion - Before the great expansion of European people and culture, Europeans represented about 4- "South" to "North" Migration

1- the pressures or desires to migrate have also grown - migration transition component of the overall demographic transition 2- felt pressured to migrate to some other less populated area, much as high-pressure storm fronts move into low-pressure weather systems. 3- Beginning in the fourteenth century, migration out of Europe began gaining momentum, revolutionizing the entire human population in the process - 18 percent of the world's population, with almost 90 percent of them living in Europe itself. 4- Since the 1930s, the outward expansion of Europeans has ceased. Until then, European populations had been growing more rapidly than the populations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, but since World War II that trend has been reversed. - The less developed areas now have by far the most rapidly growing populations, - For the past several decades there has been far more migration from less developed countries (the "South") to developed areas (the "North") than the reverse.

1- Edmund Halley (of Halley's comet fame) became the first scientist to elaborate on the 2- Although Halley, like Graunt, was a Londoner, 3- Then, in the eighteenth century, Süssmilch built on the work of Graunt and others and added his own analyses to the observation of the - His view, widely disseminated throughout Europe, was that - He believed that indefinite improvements in agriculture and industry would 4-

1- the probabilities of death. 2- he came across a list of births and deaths kept for the city of Breslau in Silesia (now Poland) 3- regular patterns of marriage, birth, and death in Prussia and believed that he saw in these the divine hand of God ruling human society (Hecht 1987), in much the same way that people are fascinated by patterns such as the Fibonacci sequence - a larger population was always better than a smaller one, and, in direct contradistinction to Plato, he valued quantity over quality. - postpone overpopulation so far into the future that it wouldn't matte 4-

The Power of Doubling—How Fast Can Populations Grow 1- Human populations, like all living things, have the capacity for exponential increase, which can be expressed nicely by 2- Early on in human history it took several thousand years for the population to double to a size eventually reaching 14 million. From there it took a thousand years to nearly double to 27 million and another thousand to nearly double to 50 million. - The most recent doubling (from 3.5 to 7.0 billion) took only about 44 years - Will we double again in the future?

1- the time it takes to double in population size 2- Probably not. Indeed we should hope not because we don't really know at this point how we will feed, clothe, educate, and find jobs for the 7 billion alive now, much less the additional 2 billion or more who are expected between now and later in this century

The Malthusian Perspective 1- The Malthusian perspective derives from 2- "I have read some of the speculations on the perfectibility of man and society, with great pleasure. I have been warmed and delighted with the enchanting picture which they hold forth. I ardently wish for such happy improvements. But I see great, and, to my understanding, unconquerable difficulties in the way to them" - These "difficulties," of course, are the problems posed by his now famous 3- Malthus believed that he had 4-

1- the writings of Thomas Robert Malthus, an English clergyman and subsequently a college professor. 2- principle of population. - First, that food is necessary to the existence of man. - Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is necessary, and will remain nearly in its present state. . . . - Assuming then, my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. - Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio 3- demolished the utopian optimism by suggesting that the laws of nature, operating through the principle of population, essentially prescribed poverty for a certain segment of humanity 4-

The Relationship of Population to Rights of Women 1- There is probably no more important demographic issue than the rights of women

1- women inherently have higher life expectancy than men, unless society intervenes to undermine that biological advantage 2- The other biological issue—reproduction— rears its head when society seeks to prevent women from controlling their own reproductive behavior, 3- Any group that oppresses women and suppresses their contributions will have a distinctively unfavorable demographic profile and will almost certainly suffer in terms of overall well-being.

1- Reports of declining birth rates in many parts of the world notwithstanding, it is a fact that the number of people added to the world each day is higher today than at any time in history. Moreover, we now live in a .... 2- Our partial mastery of the environment is, indeed, key to understanding why the population is growing, because... 3- Although the rapid, dramatic drop in mortality all over the world is certainly one of humanity's greatest triumphs, we are finding that no good deed goes unpunished, even such an altruistic one as conquering (or at least delaying) death. Because...

1- world crowded not only with people but also with contradictions 2- we have learned how to conquer more and more of the diseases that once routinely killed us. 3- the birth rate almost never goes down in tandem with the decline in the death rate, the result is rapid population growth. This relentless increase in numbers continues to fuel both environmental damage and social upheaval.

1- a demographic perspective 2- A demographic perspective will guide you through the sometimes tangled relationships between population factors (such as 3- There are actually two levels of population theory

1- —a way of relating basic information to theories about how the world operates demographically 2- size and growth, geographic distribution, age structure, and other sociodemographic characteristics) and the rest of what is going on in society 3- - At the core of demographic analysis is the technical side of the field—the mathematical and biomedical theories that predict the kinds of changes taking place in the biological components of demography: fertility, mortality, and the distribution of a population by age and sex - demographic processes to the real events of the social world. The linkage of the core with its outer wrapping is what produces a demographic perspective

ch2 Main Points

1. During the first 90 percent of human existence, the population of the world had grown only to the size of today's New York City. 2. Between 1750 and 1950, the world's population mushroomed from 800 million to 2.5 billion, and since 1950 it has expanded to more than 7 billion. 3. Despite the fact that humans have been around for hundreds of thousands of years, more than one in ten people ever born is currently alive. 4. Early population growth was slow not because birth rates were low but because death rates were high; on the other hand, continuing population increases are due to dramatic declines in mortality without a matching decline in fertility. 5. World population growth has been accompanied by migration from rapidly growing areas into less rapidly growing regions. Initially, that meant an outward expansion of the European population, but more recently it has meant migration from less developed to more developed nations. 6. Migration has also involved the shift of people from rural to urban areas, and urban regions on average are currently growing more rapidly than ever before in history. 7. Although migration is crucial to the demographic history of the United States and Canada, both countries have grown largely as a result of natural increase— the excess of births over deaths—after the migrants arrived. 8. At the time of the American Revolution, fertility levels in North America were among the highest in the world. Now they are low, although not as low as in Europe. 9. The world's 10 most populous countries are the People's Republic of China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, and Japan. Together they account for 59 percent of the world's population. 10. Almost all of the population growth in the world today is occurring in the less developed nations, leading to an increase in the global demographic contrasts among countries

pt5. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 10- India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh 11- Indonesia and the Philippines

10- The infant mortality rate of 44 per 1,000 is higher than the world average, but it is also far lower than it was just a few decades ago. - nearly one in four people being added to the world's population annually is from India. - India's population is culturally diverse, and this is reflected in rather dramatic geographic differences in fertility and rates of population growth within the country. - both Pakistan and Bangladesh have grown so much since independence in 1947 that, were they still one country, they would be the third most populous nation in the world. 11- A former Dutch colony, it has experienced a substantial decline in fertility in recent years, but Indonesian women nonetheless are bearing an above-average level of 2.6 children each - For several decades, Indonesia has dealt with population growth through a program of transmigration, in which people have been sent from the more populous to the less populous islands. These largely forested outer islands have suffered environmentally from the human encroachment, without necessarily dealing successfully with Indonesia's basic dilemma, which is how to raise its burgeoning young adult population out of poverty - The Philippines has even higher fertility than Indonesia (an average of 3.0 children per woman), but also experiences more outmigration than does Indonesia. - This may relieve some of the pressure felt in the Philippines by the fact of having a large youth population, but the country is still struggling under the weight of its demographic growth. - Although the country is predominantly Catholic, concentrated especially in the northern Luzon islands, there have long been clashes with Muslims in the southern group of islands comprising Mindanao. - These ethno-religious differences are reflected in the demographic trends, with lower fertility and child mortality in the Luzon region than in the Mindanao region.

pt6. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 12- Vietnam and Thailand 13- Iran

12- Vietnam, in particular, has nearly doubled in population since the Vietnam War ended in 1975. - That was largely a result of a swift drop in mortality unaccompanied immediately by a decline in fertility, thus leading to a huge youth bulge. - Recognizing the threat to development, Vietnam introduced a national family planning policy in 1988 encouraging (although not forcing) couples to have only one or two children - Fertility and mortality both dropped sooner in Thailand than in Vietnam. As early as the 1990 13- Like Vietnam and Thailand, it has experienced a very rapid fertility decline—from an average of 6 children per woman as recently as 1985 to below replacement level today -

pt7. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 14- East Asia 15- China 16- Japan

14- Overall, East Asia includes more than 20 percent of the world's total population, but its share is diminishing as China continues to brake its population growth and as Japan teeters on the edge of depopulation 15- China's share of the world's total population actually peaked in the middle of the nineteenth century. - Fertility decline actually began in China's cities in the 1960s and spread rapidly throughout the rest of the country in the 1970s, when the government introduced the family planning program known as wan xi shao, meaning "later" (marriage), "longer" (birth interval), "fewer" (children) - In 1979, this was transformed into the now famous (if not infamous) one-child policy, but fertility was already on its way down by that time - Despite its low birth rate, the number of births each year in China is nearly twice the number of deaths just because China is paying for its previous high birth rate. - China has famously used its "demographic dividend" (a bulge of adults unencumbered by a lot of children due to the rapid decline in fertility) to create jobs and grow its economy. -Thus, population growth remains a serious concern in China, but the concern is now turning from the young population to the rapidly increasing number and proportion of older Chines 16- Population size probably peaked in Japan in 2010 and is now slowly on the way down. - The decline is actually slower than it might be due to the fact Japan has the lowest level of mortality in the world - This very low mortality rate is accompanied by very low fertility. -

pt8. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 17- Oceania

17- Its population of 39 million is just slightly more than Canada's, and is less than 1 percent of the world's total. - In a pattern repeated elsewhere in the world, the lowest birth rates and lowest death rates (and thus the lowest rates of population growth) are found in countries whose populations are largely European-origin (Australia and New Zealand, in this case); - whereas the countries with a higher fraction of the population of indigenous origin have higher birth rates, higher mortality, and substantially higher rates of population growth (exemplified in Oceania by Papua New Guinea) - Much of Australia's population growth is fueled by immigration,

pt2. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 3- Canada 4- Mexico and Central America

3- In the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, the high fertility of French speakers in Canada was legendary and they maintained higher-than-average levels of fertility - until the 1960s (Beaujot 1978), probably due to the strong influence of the Catholic Church in Québec (McQuillan 2004) - In the rest of Canada, fertility began to drop in the nineteenth century and, as in the United States, reached very low levels in the 1930s before rebounding after World War II in a baby boom - This boom was similarly followed by a baby bust and then a small echo of the baby boom - Just as fertility is lower in Canada than in the United States, so is mortality, with life expectancy in Canada about two years longer than in the United States. - In both of these respects the demographic profile of Canada is more like that of Europe than of the United States. However, when it comes to immigration, Canada more closely reflects the Northern American history 4- Mexico and the countries of Central America have also been growing since the end of World War II as a result of rapidly dropping death rates and birth rates that have only more recently begun to drop. - Within a relatively short time after Europeans arrived, however, the population of several million was cut by as much as 80 percent due to disease and violence. - since the 1930s the death rate has dropped dramatically, and life expectancy in Mexico is now 79 years for women, - For several decades, this decline in mortality was not accompanied by a change in the birth rate, and the result was a massive explosion in the size of the Mexican population - In the 1970s, the birth rate finally began to decline in Mexico, encouraged by a change in government policy that began promoting small families and the provision of family planning. - The other countries of Central America have experienced similar patterns of rapidly declining mortality, leading to population growth and its attendant pressures for migration to other countries where the opportunities might be better.

pt 2. Riding the Age Wave 3- The changing age structure also has an obvious impact on the educational system. 4- The same age structure changes that influence the educational system also have an impact on the health care industry. 5- Crime, like health, is closely tied to the age and sex structure of a community.

3- Public elementary and secondary school districts cannot readily recruit students or market their services to new prospects; they rise and fall on demographic currents that determine enrollment and the characteristics of students, such as English proficiency, that can affect resource demands - Demographic conditions can also affect a school district in ways that go beyond the numbers. 4- Over the years, hospitals and other health care providers have learned that they have to reposition themselves in a classic marketing sense to meet the needs of a society that is changing demographically 5- Young people, especially young males, are more likely to commit crimes than anyone else. Therefore, it is not a surprise that the crime rate in the United States has been declining roughly in tandem with the decline in the percentage of the population that is comprised of teenagers and young adults.

Critique of Malthus pt. 2 4- Thus, Malthus either failed to see or refused to acknowledge that 5- The crucial part of Malthus's ratio of population growth to food increase was that food (including both plants and nonhuman animals) would not grow exponentially, whereas humans could grow like that. Yet 6- Malthus's argument that poverty is an inevitable result of population growth is also open to scrutiny - ex 7- Even if we were to ignore this logical inconsistency, there are problems with Malthus's belief that the Poor Laws contributed to the misery of the poor by discouraging them from exercising prudence 8- the main charge against him must be that he was a bad observer of his fellow human beings"

4- technological progress was possible, and that its end result was a higher standard of living, not a lower one. 5- when Charles Darwin acknowledged that his concept of the survival of the fittest was inspired by Malthus's essay, he implicitly rejected this central tenet of Malthus's argument. 6- For one thing, his writing reveals a certain circularity in logic - In Malthus's view, a laborer could achieve a higher standard of living only by being prudent and refraining from marriage until he could afford it, but Malthus also believed that you could not expect prudence from a laborer until he had attained a higher standard of living 7- Historical evidence has revealed that between 1801 and 1835 those English parishes that administered Poor Law allowances did not have higher birth, marriage, or total population growth rates than those in which Poor Law assistance was not available 8- Schweber (2006) has argued that one of Guillard's motivations in trying to develop a new discipline of demography was to pressure French academics to see that statistical analyses of births and deaths would show that Malthus was wrong about his claim that population growth inevitably led to poverty. - Once again, the power of Malthusian thought lies partly in the strength of opposition that he aroused

pt3. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 5- South America 6- Europe

5- Between the 1960s and the 1990s, Brazil experienced a reduction in fertility described as "nothing short of spectacular" - . For many years, the influence of the Catholic Church was strong enough to cause the government to forbid the dissemination of contraceptive information or devices, but economic development beginning in the1960s seems clearly to have encouraged a decline in fertility 6- Europe as a region is on the verge of depopulating. This is largely because its two largest nations, Russia and Germany, currently have more deaths than births and neither country is taking in enough immigrants to compensate for that fact - When East Germany was reunited with West Germany, the combined Germany inherited the East's dismal demographics and that largely explains why Germany teeters on depopulation - Russia's situation is especially noteworthy because depopulation is not just a result of below replacement fertility. Until very recently, life expectancy for males was actually declining, signaling major societal stresses - What is surprising, however, is how low the birth rate has fallen. It is especially low in the Mediterranean countries of Italy and Spain, where fertility has dropped well below replacement level—in predominantly Catholic societies where fertility for most of history has been higher than in the rest of Europe

ch 2 Summary and Conclusion 1- High death rates kept the number of people in the world from growing rapidly until approximately the time of the Industrial Revolution 2- Then improved living conditions, public health measures, and, more recently, medical advances dramatically accelerated the pace of growth 3- As populations have grown, the pressure or desire to migrate has also increased 4- The vast European expansion into less developed areas of the world, which began in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries but accelerated in the nineteenth century, is a notable illustration of massive migration and population redistribution 5- Today migration patterns have shifted, and people are mainly moving from less developed to more developed nations. Closely associated with migration and population density is the urban revolution—that is, the movement from rural to urban areas.

6- The current world situation finds China and India to be the most populous countries, followed by the United States, Indonesia, and Brazil 7- Dealing with the pressure of an expanding young population is the task of developing countries; whereas more developed countries, along with China, have aging populations and are coping with the fact that the demand for labor in their economies may have to be met by immigrants from more rapidly growing countries. 8- Demographic dynamics represent the leading edge of social change in the modern world. 9- In order to cope with these demographic underpinnings of our lives, we need to have a demographic perspective that allows us to sort out the causes and consequences of population change.

pt4. Help illustrate the variability of demographic situations in which countries find themselves. 7- Northern Africa and Western Asia 8- Sub-Saharan Africa 9- South and Southeast Asia

7- With its rate of growth of 1.9 percent per year, Egypt's population would double in 36 years without a significant drop in the birth rate, and this rapid growth constantly hampers even the most ambitious strategies for economic growth and development - this is almost certainly a key reason for the political turmoil in Egypt - It is the size and rate of increase in the youthful population that has been especially explosive throughout northern Africa and the Arab societies of western Asia - The economies within the region have not been able to keep up with the demand for jobs, and this has produced a generation of young people who, despite being better educated than their parents, face an uncertain future in an increasingly crowded world - The demographic situation has fueled discontent and has almost certainly contributed to the rise of radical Islam and terrorism 8- All three of these countries (as well as their neighbors) have incredibly high levels of fertility, especially considering the fact that death rates are much lower than they used to be - Not surprisingly, these high birth rates, in combination with declining infant and child mortality, produce young populations 9- South and Southeast Asia as a region is home to 2.4 billion people, one-third of the world's total.

Ch 1 Summary and Conclusion - It is an often-repeated phrase that "demography is destiny," - the goal of this book is to help you better understand the changes occurring all over the world - Demographic analysis helps you do this by seeking out both the causes and the consequences of population change - The absolute size of population change is very important, as is the rate of change, and of course, the direction (growth or decline). - The past 200 years have witnessed almost nonstop growth in most places in the world, but the rate is slowing down, even though we are continuing to add nearly 9,000 people to the world's total every hour of every day. - You may not realize it, but everything happening around you is influenced by demographic events close to you as well as in faraway places. Not just to the big things like regional conflict, globalization, climate change, exhaustion of resources, and massive migration movements, but even to little things that affect you directly, like the kinds of stores that operate in your neighborhood, the goods that are stocked on your local supermarket shelf, the availability of a hospital emergency room, and the jobs aimed at college graduates in your community - Influential decision makers in government agencies, social and health organizations, and business firms now routinely base their actions at least partly on their assessment of the changing demographics of an area - So, both locally and globally, demographic forces are at work to change and challenge your future

Ch1 Main Points 1. Demography is concerned with everything that influences or can be influenced by population size, growth or decline, processes, spatial distribution, structure, and characteristics. 2. Almost everything in your life has demographic underpinnings that you should understand. 3. Demography is a force in the world that influences every improvement in human well-being that the world has witnessed over the past few hundred years. 4. The past was very different from the present in large part because of demographic changes taking place all over the globe; and the future will be different for the same reasons. 5. The cornerstones of population studies are the processes of mortality (a deadly subject), fertility (a well-conceived topic), and migration (a moving experience). 6. Demographic change demands that societies adjust, thus forcing social change, but different societies will respond differently to these challenges, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse. 7. Examples of global issues that have deep and important demographic components include the relationship of population to food, water, and energy resources, as well as housing and infrastructure, and environmental degradation. 8. Population is also connected to social and political dynamics such as regional conflict, often exacerbated by youth bulges, as well as globalization, the need for immigrants created by the phenomenon of "demographic fit" and then the backlash against those immigrants. 9. Changes in the age structure are the most obvious ways in which demography forces societal change and, at the same time, creates business opportunities— exemplified by the idea of "riding the age wave." 10. A key to all demographic trends in the world is the status of women.

CHAPTER 3 1- 100% enumeration 2- True 3- undercounted 4- vital events. 5- when response errors occur because of incorrect interpretation of question

Demographic Perspectives 1- The US Census is _____ _______ of the population. 2- In the US, a person is counted based on their usual place of residence. 3- Minority population and college students are typically ____. 4- In demography, events such as births, deaths, and marriage are called: 5- Content error usually occurs when:

Lecture 2/2

Global Population: - We will begin with the current state of the global population, where you will learn about some key terms such as carrying capacity, population explosion, and more. - We will learn about what led to the rapid increase in global population tracing back to the Industrial Revolution. And then, we will learn about why and how population redistributed around the globe. - Here will will discuss the European expansion, which occurred in the past, and the migration from the global South to industrialized nations. - Finally, we will take up some specific geographic regions and elaborate on their population histories. These places are the United States, China, South Asia, and Mexico and Central America.