North Korean Politics Midterm
Kim Jong-il
(Dear Leader) - Born February 16, 1942 -Kim Jong-suk김정숙(金正淑)-Partisan fighter - 5 years younger than Kim Il Sung - Formal marriage on October 20, 1940 - Yura & Shura
Kim Il Sung
(Great Leader) - Born April 15, 1912 at Pyongan Namdo, Daedong gun Kopyong-myon Namri (Mankyongdae) to Kim Hyong-jik & Kang Ban-suk - Kim Il Sung's birthday (태양절)
Deterrence of Terror by Punishment
- A threat or action designed to increase an adversary's perceived costs of engaging in particular behavior - Must hold something terrorists value at risk -> identify what terrorist gain through terror -> threat to punish terrorists -> increase perceived cost of terror -> elicit terrorists promise to not commit terrorist acts - Problem of irrationality: understanding threat - Problem of terrorist motivation: ideological or religious -> absolute
Kim's Youth
- Baby in the Far Front with Partisan hardships - Kim Il Sung's guards and liaison soldiers: Chon Mun Sob, Paik Hak Rim, Cho Myong Rok, Lee Ul Sol
Adolf Hitler (1889-1945)
- Born in Austria-Hungary, lost father at 13 and mother at 18 - Rejected by Vienna's Academy of Fine Arts - Homeless shelter; public library - Dodged Austrian draft (arrested but considered undernourished and unfit) -> fled to Munich and joined German Army in 1914 - From Social democrat to Nazi -> German hero as in 1933, Hilter becomes the leader of Germany - Stalin, a Germanophile
Joseph Stalin (1878-1953)
- Cobbler father & seamstress, cleaning lady mother - Went to Tiflis Seminary but failed to become a priest - Poems published and good grades - By 1917, leading member of Bolshevik regime (39 years old) - In 1922, head of CPSU, and one month later, Lenin suffered a stroke - Book collector of 20,000 volumes - Marx, Lenin, Plato, Clausewitz - Obsessed with capitalist encirclement - Vozhd, the supreme leader - Anatas Mikoyan & Vyacheslav Molotov
Deterrence of Terror by Denial
- Hardening target in the hope of making an attack too costly to commit - Convincing terrorists that one (deterring state) will not to make concessions -> in the face of terror tactics
Kim Jong-un
- January 8, 1983 between KJI and Ko Young-hee - KJI's wives - Sung Hye-rim, Kim Ok - Successor since 2008? - Educated in public school in Bern, Switzerland and Kim Il Sung University - Vice-chairman of the Party Military Committee, Supreme Commander of Korean Army - Party General Secretary & Chairman of NDC?
Succession Process
- KJI elected as Politburo member (1974), probably decided around 1972 at the 8th session of the 5th party central committee - KJI succession officialized at the 6th Party Congress in 1980, announced as 4th ranked in Party Politburo, 2nd in Party Secretariat and 3rd in Party military committee - Grasping the Military in 1991 and in 1993; 1991 appointed as the supreme commander of the North Korean military and in 1993 appointed as the chairman of national defense commission - Amendment of Constitution; Abolishing the post of the President; General Secretary of the Party (1997)
Similarities in Kim Jong-un and Kim Jong-il's Legacies
- Launch succession at 60 (1953 and 1972) - Founding fathers & 1st generation revolutionary - Similar government & party structure - Purge & economic mobilization as political tool cults of personality - Lack of democracy, weak civil society, international isolation, dominance of 1st generation revolutionary
Immanentism
- Looking from inside rather than outside - Achievement of a system should be evaluated in accordance with objectives set by that system rather than judging from a standard of other systems - Juche as the expression of immanentist objective for simultaneously solving national and class difficulties
Mao's Influence
- Mao's two-front-succession -> Kim's purge on geographical factions - Mao's balance-of-power politics against Zhou Enlai, Ye Jianying, Deng Xiaoping -> launch father-to-son succession - Hua Guofeng -> officialization to give time to KJI to consolidate power - Mao's GLF to correct Soviet model -> Chongsanri movement - Problems of premortem succession -> convince father-to-son succession
Local Agenda
- Motivated by religious or Ideological or Perceptional Beliefs -> Not irrational - Primary local goals vs. secondary global goals - Local interests of the terrorist group can serve as an effective hostage for a policy of deterrence - Terrorist groups whose primary concern is the local theater may be willing to refrain from committing certain actions in return for less interference - Traditional targeting of non-political ends can sometimes deter critical elements of terrorist networks
KJI's Prescription-Reorganizing Leadership Structure
- National Defense Commission - Son'gun chongch'i (military first politics) - Head of the state -> chairman of the standing committee of the SPC (Supreme People's Congress) - Kangsong Taekuk - Cabinet
Hereditary Succession
- One every three years since 1994: (Syria 2000, Azerbaijan 2003, Singapore 2004, Togo 2005, Gabon 2009) - Legitimized form of succession in 45 countries including 17 in the British Commonwealth - Lateral/lineal succession - Viable adult heir & leader's power exceeding the party
Kang Ban-suk
-Kang Ban-suk's death at the age of 40 -Daughter of a presbyter -Laundry & sewing -Supported Kim by sending 3 won
Kim Hyong-jik
-Kim Hyong-jik's death at the age of 32 -Graduated from Sungsil School -Tomb Keeper's family
Dramatization of Kim's Rule
-Redisign a new stat on the basis of yugekitai kokka -Art of Guidance(지도예술), Art of Movie(영화예술) -Yugekitaization of Production, Study, Life -Battle of velocity(속도전), Surprise attack(전격전), Kill-them-all(섬멸전) -Father-like leader(어버이수령), Mother party(어머니당) → family stat and theory of sociopolitical life system
Emergence of Kim Jong-il
-The Death of Kim Il Sung on July 8, 1994 -Pessimistic Views prevailed -KIS -> Suryong, KJI -> Dear Leader (친애하는 지도자) -Born on Feb 16, 1942 in Vyatsk between KIS and Kim Jong Suk -Yura Kim, Shura Kim & Kyung-hi Kim -Kim Jong Suk passed away in 1949
Two Conditions on the Qualifications of the Leader
1. Chosen from the next generation 2. Chosen while the supreme leader is still in power
Three Roles of the Leader
1. Create and develop leading ideas 2. Enlighten loyalty to the supreme leader 3. Devise strategies and tactics, train the working class
Four Qualifications of the Leader
1. Infinite loyalty to the supreme leader 2. Master the ideas of the supreme leader 3. Lofty virtues 4. Recognized by the mass
How to stop terror?
1. Persuasion for winning hearts and minds 2. economic aid and democratization 3. appeasement 4. military force 5. deterrence
Totalitarianism
A political system in which the government has total control over the lives of individual citizens. main components: single ideology, one-man rule, secret police, monopoly of information and force, central economy, territorial ambition, main scholars: Carl J. Friedrich & Zbigniew K. Brzezinski
Perceptional Variants of Mao and Kim
Birth: - Mao: Son of hard-working Rich merchant, hatred toward father - Kim: Son of anti-Japan communist, respect toward father, aim high! Wife: - Mao: Kuo Yixiu (18 vs. 14, died 1 year after marriage), Yang Kaihui, He Zizhen, Jiang Qing - Kim: Kim Jong-suk, Kim Song-ae Son: - Mao Anying & Kim Jong-il
Misperception vs. Misperception
Contradictory secret reports about possible German invasion of Soviet Union - Non-aggression pact signed in 1939 - Evacuation of Italian Embassy in Russia reported through SU secret police - June 21, 22, or 21-25 -> not on invasion, but on this year or next - Various intelligence reports plus front-line observation reports - SU intelligence: 120~122 divisions out of 285 German divisions on Soviet Union -> In reality, 220 division, German evacuation, systemic air infiltration were present - Stalin: Without occupying England, no invasion would be possible!; Hitler: Russia instead of England Who fooled whom?
Yugekitai Kokka
Kim Il Sung's consolidation of political power and status in the party as the background for the familial partisan state (impressive economic development) Kim was at the top of the party and politics, however, most of the cadres were from China faction, Soviet faction, South Korean faction, and Kim Il Sung's Manchuria faction were numerically inferior August Factional Struggle -> ousted China and Soviet Faction while the Manchuria (Kapsan) faction rose to the top and Kim's individual status of the top transformed into collective leadership Kim Il Sung's first army (제1로군) Choi Yongkwon's second army(제2로군) Kim Chaik's third army(제3로군) → past experiences hinder glorification of Kim Il Sung's struggle → Kim's authority? → purge of second and third army Kim's Unitarian political system was in the embryonic stage of Juche
Purge of Mao and Kim Regimes
M: - Little challenge, Liu Shaoqi & Deng Xioping K: - Hyun Jun-kuk & Cho Man-shik - Korean War: Mu Chong & Park Hon-yong - August 1958: Park Chang-ok (pro-soviet) & Choi Ch'ang-ik (pro-china) - Anatas Mikoyan & Peng Dehui
Mao's Succesors vs. Kim's Successors
M: - Liu Shaqi (found dead during the Cultural Revolution) - Lin Biao (plane crash) - Wang Hongwen (failed to become the heir) - Hua Guofend (failed to maintain power) K: - Kim Jong-il - Kim Jong-un
Political Backgrounds of Mao and Kim
M: - Long March, Red Star over China (1937), control of central committee, politburo & secretariat (1945) - Regular army activities K: - Soviet Officer, Ivan Chistiakov - Mu Chong - Guerilla activities
Kim Phenomenon
North Korean Political System through a Corporatist View: 1. Stalinism - Centralism - Top-down administration principle 2. Corporatism - 8 elements 3. Asian Culture - Principle of hierarchy - deference to superiors and elders - authority over inferior
Priority and Means
Priority 1: Political survival of Kim Jong-un: Nuclear Project, military-first politics, non-aggression pact with the US, governing money for the elites Priority 2: National Survival of NK as a State: economic package, lifting economic sanctions, inter-Korean economic cooperation, energy and food from China Priority 3: Economic Development: economic reform, introduction of partial market-oriented reform, foreign investment
Outcome of the Purge
Purge in 1967, 1969 - 135 committee members, 115 belonged to the Kim faction - 1970 Dictionary of political terminology vs. 1973 version - Politburo, military power, general secretary - Kim Jong-un
Death of Shura & Kim Jong Suk
Shura's death Kim Jong Suk's death - Kim Il Sung's regret - Kim Jong Il left alone with his younger sister, Kim Kyong Hee - Kim Il Sung remarried with Kim Song ae, the operator
Where was Kim Jong-il Born?
Soviet B Camp - Paekdu Mountain - Official history of North Korea - Segiwa Doburo Kim Il Sung Univ. Class of 60 - All A+ for Four years, Summa Cum Laude - About middle but leadership
Kim Jong-Un's Threat Perception
Weaker actors resort to terrorism with no other means of furthering their interests - Resort to provocations Suicide tactics proved remarkably successful in coercing liberal democracies - Nuclear weapon A set of hierarchically ordered goals and choosing strategies that best advance their interests - Kim Jong-un's unique priorities
Corporatism
a political system in which interest groups become an institutionalized part of the state or dominant political party (i.e. Totalitarian rule from the top + Asian hierarchical order and obedience to the elder) main contributor: Bruce Cummings
North Korea's Terrorism and Violations of Armistice Treaty
correlated trend of terrorism and violation spikes as NK feels threatened and acts out -Terrorists are irrational = North Korea is irrational; No rational cost-benefit calculation applied -They are ready to die (Robert Pape) = North Korea has nothing to lose; Not deterred by fear of punishment -Retaliation to whom? = sanction on whom?; Identity of terrorists uncertain (no return address); Sanction not supposed to negatively influence civilian life
Presentism-Judging
from the contemporary viewpoint danger of theological interpretation on the history
Historical Reductionism
judging from historical circumstance and environment of the past - exclusion of biases - danger of spotlighting inevitability of a historical phase - danger of justifying the occurrence of a certain event
Security Dilemma
threat from outside - more by fear than provocative nature - increase in one state's security decreases the security of others (spiral effects) Perception - uncertainty leads to priority, obsession, assumption, and the proliferation of pre-existing beliefs - typically not objective or absolutely rational - perception of threat leads to values and interests being endangered with a lack of resources and capability to stop
Hostile Interdependence & Mirror Effect
tools for domestic politics Mirror Effect: distorted view on myself by others resembles my distorted view on others (spiral effect), accumulation of hostile summary that goes both/all ways