OPSM 3830 Quiz 3
What is the Mean Absolute Deviation of this forecast model? n Year Dt Ft Et |Et| Et2 1 2013 9.6 9.7 0.1 0.1 0.01 2 2014 7.5 9.6 2.1 2.1 4.41 3 2015 7.2 7.5 0.3 0.3 0.09 4 2016 7.0 7.2 0.2 0.2 0.04 5 2017 6.2 7.0 0.8 0.8 0.64 6 2018 5.5 6.2 0.7 0.7 0.49 7 2019 5.3 5.5 0.2 0.2 0.04 8 2020 5.5 5.3 -0.2 0.2 0.04 Total: 4.2 4.6 5.76
0.575
Based on the same data, what is the Tracking Signal of this forecast model? n Year Dt Ft Et |Et| Et2 1 2013 9.6 9.7 0.1 0.1 0.01 2 2014 7.5 9.6 2.1 2.1 4.41 3 2015 7.2 7.5 0.3 0.3 0.09 4 2016 7.0 7.2 0.2 0.2 0.04 5 2017 6.2 7.0 0.8 0.8 0.64 6 2018 5.5 6.2 0.7 0.7 0.49 7 2019 5.3 5.5 0.2 0.2 0.04 8 2020 5.5 5.3 -0.2 0.2 0.04 Total: 4.2 4.6 5.76
7.3
Based on the results of the Tracking Signal above, this model does not demonstrate bias.
False
The forecast model on the left (scenario 1) creates a better overall forecast (in terms of accuracy) than model on the right (scenario 2). MSE > in scenario 1
False
This regression model is statistically significant enough to proceed with the development of a forecasting model: Significant F= 8.34E-02
False
Bias in forecasting can be measured by
Mean Percent Error (MPE)
Accuracy in forecasting can be measured by
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
Some of the key take-aways from the Superforecasters podcast include: i) Anyone can be taught the skills to become a great forecaster ii) Forecasters should try to focus on the key variables that matter, rather than model every detail iii) Forecasters should try to break big intractable problems into smaller, easier problems to model together iv) Poor forecasts have lead to companies taking on too much debt and eventually going bankrupt v) Strong forecasting competencies can lead to a company gaining a competitive advantage
Only i) and ii) and iii) are correct
Based on this regression analysis, the slope variable is statistically significant and would be appropriate to model a trend factor into the forecast. Significant F= 0.00000000083
True
Which of the following is/are a primary input into capacity, sales, and production planning?
demand forecasts
