Poly Sci Fed. Ch 10

The best prediction models use some combination of the following key structural factors:

1. The economy. What is the condition of the economy? A strong economy leads voters to support the incumbent party. A struggling economy gives an edge to the challenger. 2. Presidential popularity. How popular is the sitting president? An unpopular president will hurt the chances for his party's candidate. 3. The incumbent party's time in office. How long has the incumbent party controlled the presidency? The American public has shown a consistent preference for change. A party that has been in power for a long time usually has made enough mistakes to lead citizens to vote for the other side.

Invisible primary

After a candidate decides to run for president, he or she enters what is called the invisible primary. No votes are cast, but candidates are jockeying for position so they can be ready to do well in the initial primaries and caucuses.

Swing voters and states

Although partisanship remains high, swing voters still exist—people who do not fall into either the Republican or Democratic camp—and so do swing states. Partisanship remains an anchor driving the preferences of most Americans, leaving only a handful of "persuadable" or swing voters. Regardless of the percentage of swing voters, perhaps the more critical strategic feature of presidential campaigns are swing states. presidential candidates invest time and effort only in states that they can win. Nearly 90 percent of campaign visits by presidential candidates are to battleground close states.

the fall campaign

Anthony Downs explained this shift in message with the median voter theorem, which argues that candidates in their quest for votes should adopt moderate positions on issues. To win the general election, candidates usually need votes from party members as well as from Independents and members of the opposing party. It is for these reasons that elections are often battles over the so-called middle. Elections to the House of Representatives typically focus more on local issues intrinsic to the district and less on national programs and issues. Senate elections pay more attention to national issues because the Senate is viewed as more nationally focused. I

Microtargeting 2

As a campaign strategy, microtargeting has begun to replace traditional polling techniques and precinct-by-precinct get-out-the-vote drives. Rather than a general political message sent through a specific medium, campaigns are now able to send dozens of versions of the message using various methods—mail, phone calls, e-mail, text messages, home visits—to reach targeted audiences.

midterms

Because of these aggregate shifts in midterm congressional elections, many scholars have viewed midterm elections as referenda on the sitting president.

The electoral college 1

Because state legislators were, for the most part, elected by the people, this arrangement gave the public an indirect say in the choice. Today the people of each state, not the members of state legislatures, choose the electors in an arrangement that has given citizens a new gateway for influence

Determine which issues shape congressional campaigns

Campaign promises, including those in party platforms, are the measure against which citizens can evaluate the performance of the president and Congress. The presidency and the composition of Congress change in response to economic conditions and foreign relations, and the pattern of party gains and losses indicates that voters use elections to hold officials accountable and that the presidency and Congress are responsive institutions.

Negativity

Candidates' use of claims against the opposition is labeled negativity. One of the most famous examples of negativity is the so-called Daisy spot. This was a television commercial aired only once by President Lyndon B. Johnson in his 1964 campaign against the Republican nominee, Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater. In recent years, the amount of negativity in presidential campaigns has been on the rise. Negative ads, however, serve a purpose. To ensure accountability, candidates need to be able to criticize the other side.

incumbency & term limits

Concerns about incumbency advantage have led some observers to fear a lack of accountability and to call for term limits, which would force members to retire after serving a maximum number of terms. Finally, the difference in terms—six years as opposed to two—may indicate that House members stay in closer touch with constituents than do senators, and their constituents reelect them

Electoral college reform 2

Doing away with the Electoral College through a constitutional amendment would be difficult because it is unlikely that three-quarters of the states, needed to ratify an amendment, would support such a reform. Small states see merit in the system, since it forces presidential candidates to consider their needs and gives them a chance for more influence.

Congressional elections

Each state, regardless of size, has two senators, while representatives are elected from congressional districts within states whose boundaries are adjusted to accommodate changes in population. Senators serve staggered six-year terms, while House members serve two-year terms.

influences on voters

Economic conditions and presidential popularity indirectly influence voters in another way. Because politicians are ambitious and want to run for office when the prospects for success are high, they survey conditions when deciding whether to run. The aggregate effect of these decisions produces an outcome for congressional elections that correlates with economic conditions and presidential popularity. Political scientists call this influence the strategic politician hypothesis.

There are three reasons for this heavy reliance on the ballot

First, the public views elections as legitimate devices for making political choices. Second, the Constitution was vague about rules surrounding the choice of presidents and members of Congress, allowing states to make greater use of elections, and many have done so. Third, the federal system created layers of government and multiple political offices to fill them, most of which are elected.

The constitutional rules governing the selection of the president reflect three fundamental themes that guided the Framers' thinking:

First, the states were given broad discretion on key matters regarding presidential elections to ensure their importance and to counterbalance the power of the national government. Second, the Framers designed the presidency with George Washington in mind and did not spell out all aspects in great detail, including elections.Third, the presidency was intended to stand above party politics, doing what was right for the nation rather than supporting one faction over another. That assumption went awry early on, and parties formed almost from the start.

Thornburg vs. Gingles

For example, the Supreme Court in Thornburg v. Gingles unanimously struck down a North Carolina redistricting plan. It had a discriminatory effect (a discriminatory intent is not necessary for a violation of the VRA, just a discriminatory effect) of diluting the ability of African Americans to choose state representatives of their choice by splitting "politically cohesive groups of black voters" into districts where blocs of white voters would consistently defeat the black candidates.

Fundraising Money

In 1971, Congress tried to put candidates on an equal financial footing and make them less beholden to special interests by passing the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA). requires candidates and political parties to disclose their campaign financial records. In 1974, Congress amended the law to set strict limits on how much money could be contributed by individuals and parties to campaigns, and created the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as an independent agency to monitor campaign finance. Under the rules, candidates seeking their party's nomination are given public funds for the campaign in the form of matching funds:

Elections, campaigns, and democracy

In 1980, for example, many Americans were unhappy with the state of the economy and foreign affairs. More than 70 percent of the electorate felt that the nation was on the wrong track. The general lesson is that elections and campaigns, although imperfect, provide a real chance to ensure government responsiveness and have done so over many years and decades.

McCutcheon, et al. v. FEC

In 2016, the limit per contributor was $2,700 in the primary and $2,700 in the general campaign. After the Supreme Court's ruling in McCutcheon, et al. v. FEC, individuals have no limit on the number of campaigns to which they may contribute.

Retrospective voting

In a process called retrospective voting, voters tend to judge incumbents on their performance and vote accordingly.

More on redistricting

In addition to equal population in districts, another important constraint facing the redistricting is that the boundaries must be contiguous (uninterrupted). Redistricting has also been used as a tool to achieve greater minority representation in the House of Representatives. As a result, current guidelines on redistricting call for the consideration of race in drawing district lines, but not to the extreme that it had been employed in the past. Any change to the size and shape of a district can have political implications because shifts in its partisan makeup alter which party might be able to capture the seat.

House elections and redistricting

In contrast to the Senate, the entire House of Representatives is up for election every two years. Also in contrast to the Senate, House members have always been elected directly by the people. State legislatures are responsible for drawing the district lines in a process known as redistricting.

The electoral college 2

In fact, they meet in December to vote formally for the president—five or so weeks after election day in November. These electors are selected in a variety of ways in the fifty states. It is very much a state-centered process. Each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to its number of senators and members of the House of Representatives. The minimum is three, because every state has at least one House member and two senators.

Incumbency advantage 1

Incumbents almost always win. Since the 1960s, the number of competitive races has been in decline, a trend called vanishing marginals. Fewer and fewer congressional elections are competitive. Noncompetitive districts are often referred to as safe seats. Incumbents also win reelection at high rates because their constituents know them. Senate challengers do better than House challengers.

Permanent campaign

It is no wonder that many observers have expressed concern over what has been called the permanent campaign, a worry that politicians, especially presidents, spend too much time working toward reelection and not enough time governing.

More on election funding

John McCain in 2008 was the last major party nominee to use public funds, receiving about $80 million from the government. In 2016, it was about $2 billion—ten times the amount spent in 1996.

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission

Most of this surge in money can be tied to the Supreme Court ruling in this case. This landmark case allowed for increased campaign fundraising (and spending) as it undid many of the restrictions formerly placed on corporations and unions. After this came the rise of super PACs.

Outline the steps in congressional campaigns

Nearly all congressional campaigns start with a primary election in which the party's official candidate is selected. The general election follows. These campaigns occur every two years. In the Senate, one-third of all seats are contested every two years. For the House of Representatives, every member faces reelection every two years.

Party platforms

One key part of this electoral process is the party platform. The platform lays out the party's thinking on key issues and can be usefully thought of as a set of promises the party makes about their plans for governing. The party platform is officially adopted at the party's national convention every four years (which nominates a presidential and vice presidential candidate). Perhaps the most famous example of breaking a promise occurred in 1991, when President George H. W. Bush agreed to a tax increase as part of a budget deal with congressional Democrats.

Wedge issues

One strategy is to use a wedge issue that has the potential to break up the opposition's coalition. Wedges usually involve controversial policy concerns, such as affirmative action, that divide people rather than build consensus.

the role of political parties

Parties are forbidden by campaign finance laws from actively coordinating a specific individual's congressional or senatorial campaign, but local parties can engage in general activities.

more on primaries

Party primaries nearly always determine which candidate will gain the party endorsement for a House or Senate seat. To win the primary election, a candidate generally shapes his or her campaign messages to please core party members in the district or state

The decision to run and primaries

People who choose to run for Congress are usually visible residents of their district or state. candidates do not have to declare their intention to run for Congress until about a year before the election. For House members, that means the campaign never stops. The contests that occur in between the four-year presidential election cycles are called midterm elections.

Fundraising and money

Senate campaigns generally cost more than House campaigns because they seek to reach voters across an entire state rather than just a district. Candidates also raise money from PACs, which are limited to donating $5,000 for a primary election, and $5,000 for a general election, to a single candidate. Name recognition also helps in fundraising.

Problems with electoral college

The Electoral College has never worked as the Framers envisioned, as an institution that would allow a group of independent decision makers to get together in the many states and deliberate over who would make the best president. Serious problems arose in 1800, when political parties had fully emerged. The Twelfth Amendment, adopted in 1804, fixed this problem by combining the vote for president and vice president into one ballot, with the person running for each office named. States were also free to set their own rules for selecting electors.

Describe the ideas that molded the Framers' thinking about elections

The constitutional requirements for elections set up gates against direct democracy by allowing only the House of Representatives to be elected by the people. State legislatures chose both senators and the electors who would elect the president. Today senators are elected directly by the people, and presidential elections give the people more influence, but the Electoral College enhances the influence of small states over states with large populations and affects the strategy of presidential campaigns. Because of the structure of the Electoral College, the candidate with the highest number of popular votes sometimes does not win the presidency. Each state has two senators. House members represent state congressional districts whose lines are redrawn every ten years following the census to make the population represented roughly equal

The 2000 presidential election

The events surrounding the 2000 presidential election tested the credibility of the American electoral process. Demands for a recount ensued, and the Florida recount revealed how difficult it is to produce an accurate vote count.

Presidential coattails

There is also the effect of presidential coattails—that is, a popular president running for reelection brings additional party candidates into office. it is clear that the partisan makeup of Congress reflects the popularity of the president or presidential candidate.

Super PACs

These organizations are not allowed to coordinate directly with the candidates they support, but often those who run a Super PAC are friends and former aides to the candidates, making the distinction questionable. The real problem with Super PACs and the issue ads they sponsor is that voters do not always know where the money is coming from.

allocating state electoral votes to candidates

This winner-take-all system means that if a candidate wins California by just a single vote, that candidate gets all fifty-five of the state's electoral votes. The two exceptions are Nebraska and Maine, which allocate votes by congressional district and so can split their electoral votes.

Polls and prediction models

To take a more systematic look at how campaigns work, political scientists have developed prediction models that yield specific estimates of the vote share in presidential elections. It is important to remember that these models predict the national popular vote.

Presidential debates

Today these events, as well as a vice presidential debate, are managed by the nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates, which was established in 1987. The commission chooses the locations and sets the rules. The first presidential debate was between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960, and many felt that Kennedy's performance was critical to his narrow win. Debates usually have much more risk than reward, and campaign insiders usually hope for no more than an error-free performance by their candidate.

Other elections

Today, however, U.S. citizens elect the president (through electors), members of Congress, governors, state legislators, and a range of local officials, including at the city, town, or village level. In some states, voters can cast ballots on specific policies through initiatives and referenda. Additionally we have primary elections, and some states are involved in the selection of retention judges

Microtargeting 1

Today, the technique of microtargeting has become a boon to political parties and electoral campaigns. By identifying and tracking potential supporters, campaign strategists can design specific political messages tailored for each of the voting profiles developed from the data. The Clinton campaign pursued more microtargeting than did Trump's team, which relied more on free media to get their message out.

Determine which issues shape congressional campaigns

Voters usually reelect House and Senate members, so whether congressional elections actually serve to hold Congress accountable is a question for American democracy. Voters know less about these candidates than about the candidates in presidential elections, suggesting perhaps that there is not much accountability.

Relative lack of interest

Voting rates in congressional elections, particularly in midterm elections, are always lower than in presidential elections. A major consequence of these differences is that voters in congressional elections often do not know much about the candidates. As a result, voting is driven largely by two major forces: partisanship and incumbency.

To win the presidency:

a candidate needs to win a majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes (538 is the total of 435 representatives and 100 senators plus 3 votes from the District of Columbia, whose residents can vote for president but do not have representation in Congress). That last happened in 1824.

incumbency & districs

incumbency advantage appears to be increasing because districts are becoming "deep red" (Republican) and "deep blue" (Democratic) due to people's decisions about where to live. congressional districts are becoming heavily Democratic or heavily Republican. The result is that fewer races are competitive and incumbents are more successful.

Senate elections

there are barriers against overwhelming change in the composition of the Senate because Senate elections are staggered; only one-third of senators are up for election at a time. This arrangement ensures that the Senate is insulated from large shifts in public sentiment.

Electoral college reform 1

winning the popular vote does not always mean a win in the electoral college. This happened in the 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016 presidential elections. If a democracy rests on the idea of majority rule—that is, the candidate with the most support in the public wins the election—then about 10 percent of our presidential elections have been "undemocratic."

incumbency advantage 2

with the bureaucracy growing in size and reach, people expect more from their government. The result is constituent loyalty and an increased willingness to support that official's reelection. In this view, members of Congress deliberately design bureaucratic agencies and programs in ways that ensure they will be unable to carry out the tasks that constituents demand. When help arrives, loyalty to the incumbent is built.