POPULATION

Birth rate

A measure of an area's fertility. It is the number of live births per 1000 of the population per year.

Annual population change

Cumulative change in the size of a population after both natural change and migration have been taken into account, in one year.

Applying DTM to population pyramids

STAGE 1 - high birth rate, high death rate, high infant mortality rate, low life expectancy STAGE 2 - high birth rate, high death rate, high infant mortality rate (lowering), low life expectancy STAGE 3 - high birth rate, low death rate, low infant mortality rate, high life expectancy STAGE 4 - lower birth rate, low death rate, low infant mortality rate, high life expectancy STAGE 5 - low birth rate, low death rate, low infant mortality rate, high life expectancy (lower birth than death rate) FIGURES IN UK - 18.75% of population under 15, 16% of population over 65 FIGURES IN KENYA - 42.7% of population under 15, 2.1% of population over 65

Fertility rate

The average number of children each woman in a population will bear. (Usually women between the ages of 15 and 50.) If a fertility rate is 2.1 a population will replace itself.

Life expectancy

The average number of years from birth that a person can expect to live.

Natural change

The change in size of a population caused by the interrelationship between birth rate and death rate. If birth rate is higher than death rate a population will increase. If death rate exceeds the birth rate a population will decline.

Longevity

The increase in life expectancy over a period of time. It is a direct result of improved medical provision and increased levels of economic development. People live longer and this creates an older population.

Population structure

The makeup of a population of an area, usually in the form of age and sex distributions.

Infant mortality rate

The number of children per 1000 live births who die before their first birthday.

Death rate

The number of deaths per 1000 of the population per year.

Population density

The number of people living in 1km squared of a given area.

Pessimistic approach to population

-2 people born every second -more than 1 billion people lack access to drinking water -relentless increase of atmospheric pollution -David Attenborough - warned about animal extinction and the world's resources -9 billion people by 2050? -Afghanistan's population double by 2050? -Niger's population triple by 2050? -Prof. Tim Dyson, London School of Economics -Thomas Malthus - productive capacity of the Earth has physical limits -David Attenborough - reaching limits of Earth's resources, concerned about water - 1% for human use -Mexico City - water shortages, at least 1 million people affected everyday - reservoirs may be emptied in a matter of months -Aral Sea - lost 90% of water -worried about food -Attenborough - can't keep increasing productivity -countries targeting other countries land for agriculture - most targeting Africa who can't afford to feed themselves -Rwanda - 80% survive on the food they grow -Attenborough - humanity needs to decrease impact on world's resources

Correlation of population indicators

-Generally, the lower the country's GDP/capita, the higher the population growth rate -USA, Japan and Singapore are anomalies -Chad - highest growth rate, 3rd lowest GDP -Hungary - lowest growth rate, average GDP -Negative correlation between GDP/capita and population growth -Spearman Rank used to test

The UK's ageing population

-NHS offers free universal healthcare, which means that people of all ages can easily access a doctor when needed. It also means that people's lives are saved as there is free treatment available, so the death rate is decreased and people live longer -more women now go to university than men, which means that more women now have a career, so have less children. This means that the birth rate is decreased so less babies are being born each year, further contributing to the ageing population -contraception and family planning is part of the school curriculum, so people now have more knowledge of how to protect themselves and prevent pregnancy, meaning the birth rate is decreased -GDP is over £35000 per capita, which means that people are more focused on careers and materialistic things rather than having kids, so the birth rate is decreased. Also, the death rate is decreased as some people can afford surgeries in private health care -10% of women aged 45 are intentionally child-free, so with a lot of women not having kids the birth rate is decreased and therefore more of the population are older. The fertility rate is also decreased so on average women are having fewer kids -replacement level is the fertility rate needed to keep population stable. In the UK this is 2.1. This has lead to a slow natural change in the UK of just 0.7% a year and the UK fertility rate has been below 2.1 since the 1970s.

Thompson's theory of demographic transition

-Thompson believed population growth causes problems -believed economic development would increase if population growth was reduced and vice versa -with fewer people demanding resources, there would be more available for individuals and countries to use for economic development -Thompson classified all countries into one of three groups, according to population and wealth: -Group C countries had high birth and death rates. They were the world's poorest countries. High death rates, high infant mortality and low life expectancy were caused by hunger and disease, resulting from poverty. -Group B countries had high birth rates but falling death rates. As industrialisation took place, the increasing wealth would lead to falling death rates. Rapid population growth could be expected in these countries, but industrialisation would create enough new wealth to support it. -Group A countries had low birth and death rates. They were the world's weathiest countries.

DTM - UK - STAGE 3

-after 1875, a decrease in birth rate accompanied decrease in death rate -medical science began to play important role in control of mortality, with doctors being able to administer more effective drug treatments -surgery grew more advanced and anaesthesia became available -advances in nutrition e.g. cheap American wheat and refrigerated meat and fruit from Australia and New Zealand began to be imported -decline in fertility began with celebrated trial of 2 social reformers, Charles Bradlaugh and Annie Besant. They were prosecuted and later acquitted for publishing a book that gave contraceptive advice -desire for smaller families was due to the financial costs of looking after children, especially when education to the age of 13 became compulsory -between 1890 and 1930, birth rate fell from 32 per 1000 to 17 per 1000

Demographic transition model - stage 3

-birth and fertility rates fall - parents decide to provide higher quality of life for children, increased use of birth control and family planning -also economy moves towards manufacturing - fewer children needed to work on farms -increasing urbanisation leads to smaller families -increasing education for girls - later marriage, lower fertility rate -e.g. Egypt

Demographic transition model - stage 5

-birth rate falls below replacement level - leads to declining and ageing population, children are expensive to raise, many people have dependent elderly relatives -death rate remains steady - more elderly people so more people die of old age despite advances in healthcare -many countries have encouraged immigration of younger working people to try to combat the increasing dependency ratio and raise birth and fertility rates

Demographic transition model - stage 4

-birth rate falls to similar level as death rate - population increase stabilises -birth rate low - increased access and demand for luxuries like holidays and material possessions means there's less money available for having children -e.g. UK and USA

Uganda - case study of a youthful population

-birth rate of over 45, death rate of about 12 per 1000 - Uganda has one of world's fastest growing populations -in 1960 - population was just 7 million, by 2010 this had reached 33 million -by 2060 this is expected to almost quadruple to 112 million -one of the youngest populations in the world - median age of 15 and 50% of the population below working age -this has huge implications for the government and the future -Uganda is a low income country (LIC) with GDP/capita of 1300 US$ -population density is about half that of the UK -most people evenly spread across Uganda, but a lot live at the South Coast, around Jinja and Kampala. There is only round 1 person per square km in the west of Uganda -limited money to spend on education and healthcare - economy is almost entirely based on the export sale of primary products such as tea and these product values vary because global demand and prices vary. Few wealthy companies pay tax -population pyramid - very low LE, high DR (young population so few die), high IMR, high BR, 50% of population under 15

DTM - UK - STAGE 4

-by 1940 birth rate had fallen to 14 per 1000, partly due to uncertainties of war -birth rates rose immediately after war - post war baby boom -by 1980 birth rates had fallen again to 14 per 1000 and remained at this level -introduction of oral contraceptive pill and wider use of condoms meant that relationship between desired family size and achieved family size has remained strong -rise in importance of women in the employment structure of the UK in the last few decades, particularly in the service industries, has further impacted on birth rates, particularly in the professional classes

Uganda

-by 1990s, 20% of the population were HIV positive, by 2010 it was 5.4% -80% of babies born with no skilled health workers in attendance -24% of Ugandan families are undernourished -several diseases e.g. malaria, typhoid and cholera -64% of Ugandans have safe water, and 43% have improved sanitation system -death rate will increase when the generation ages -dependency ratio too high -not enough people working - economy won't improve -cost more for education and healthcare -population increasing, so living conditions will worsen and disease will increase -however the young population will all hit the working age at the same time so the economy will improve

Strategies to manage youthful populations

-controlling birth rate - some countries that are overpopulated try to slow further growth by introducing policies that limit the number of children couples can have e.g. China's one child policy, its thought this has prevented more than 300 million births since it was introduced -limiting the immigration of younger people - limiting the number of immigrants of reproductive age (15-44) would mean birth rates aren't made any higher by immigrants having children -encouraging family planning and the use of contraception- governments can offer sex education and free contraception, allowing couples to plan and limit the number of children they have -increasing childcare provision - countries can invest in more and better childcare so parents can work instead of caring for children. This doesn't manage the population change, but helps to address some of the problems caused by a younger population -In Uganda, the use of contraceptives among married women is less than 25%. New policies encouraging the use of contraceptives allow women to plan how many children they have and when they have them e.g. the government has brought in free contraceptives like condoms. However, family planning clinics aren't widespread, so many people don't have easy access to birth control. Since 1991, the birth rate has increased, suggesting this population management method isn't working. -In Uganda, policies to combat the spread of HIV/AIDS - in the late 1980s a programme of education called the ABC approach was used (Abstain from sex until marriage, Be faithful to one partner and use Condoms). This strategy worked - HIV infection rates fell from 15% of all adults in 1991 to 5% in 2001.

Demographic transition model - stage 2

-economic development begins to occur -death rate falls and life expectancy increases - increasing wealth leads to improved food supply and better sanitation -death rate starts to fall before birth rate - rapid increase in population -birth rate remains high - little birth control or family planning, poor education, families need more children to work on farms and bring in money -e.g. Uganda, Nepal

Strategies to manage ageing populations

-encouraging larger families - e.g. the Swedish government makes having children more manageable by giving both parents 18 months' paid leave when they have a child. Encouraging larger families should result in a larger working population when the children grow up, which can provide more taxes for pensions and services -raising retirement age - the working population is made larger, so more people contribute to the state pension fund and to personal pensions for longer. People will also claim the state pension for less time -encouraging the immigration of working-age people - e.g. in recent years Japan has increased its number of foreign workers because there aren't enough working-age Japanese people to fill the jobs available. This increases the working-age population, which helps to support the ageing population by paying taxes -increasing health care provision - large numbers of older people puts pressure on health care systems. This doesn't manage the population change but it could help ease the problem of poor health in the elderly

Optimistic approach to population

-if there's enough food and resources population will thrive -as population has grown, things have got better -in 20th century, industrialised countries tripled from productivity -'Green Revolution'- saved billions of lives with agriculture and modern farming methods - developed new variety of seeds in America - HYVs (high yield varieties) or rice and wheat -Bangladesh 1972 - fertility rate =7 and life expectancy =50, Bangladesh 2012 - fertility rate =2.2 and life expectancy =70 -1963 - world fertility rate =5, developed countries - less babies, longer lives -2012, world fertility rate =2.5

Dependency ratio

-important indicator for governments and councils when planning the services required by their populations -it is calculated by adding together youthful dependents (under 16 and not earning a wage) and the number of old people (65+) an dividing this by the number of people of working age -this is used to work out how much tax needs to be paid by the workers to support the dependents

Why is the ageing population expected to rise?

-in 2005 16% of the population of the UK were over 65 -this is expected to rise to 25% by 2041 because: 1) increasing life expectancy - between 1980 and 2006 life expectancy rose 2.8 years for women and 4 years for men. It's currently 81.3 for women and 76.9 for men. As people live longer, the number of older people increases. 2) baby booms - lots of babies were born in the 1940s and 1960s. These large generations are starting to retire, increasing the number of elderly people. 3) falling birth rate - there are fewer young people, so the proportion of older people is great.

China's one child policy

-in the 1950s the Chinese leader Mao Zedong promoted rapid population growth as he believed that large families were a source of strength, raising workers for the collective economy and providing recruits for the People's Liberation Army. -China's disastrous 'Great Leap Forward' led to a famine between 1959 and 1961 which killed over 30 million Chinese. In the ensuing decade attempts to introduce family planning made little headway during the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution -the policy 'later, longer, fewer' was introduced in the 1970s: later marriages, longer gaps between births and fewer children -the one child policy was introduced in 1979 in an attempt to slow the rapid population growth -punitive fines are imposed on parents who have a second child without permission -this has led to female infanticide, and there are currently 118 boys born for every 100 girls

Disadvantages of an ageing population

-less disposable income - high tax to pay for old people (NHS) (economic) -more people claiming state pensions (economic) -can cause problems for families trying to support them (social) -traditional/conservative values - holding back society and new ideas (social) -traditional values - could prevent change (political) -strain on government spending - lot of money on healthcare, nursing homes, free bus pass - hold back development of country in terms of GDP? (political) -education/jobs not funded as much? (political)

Issues of a youthful population

-less tax - too young -struggle to provide basic needs in families -education under stress - big classes, need more funding -eventually old - population will increase -need to create more jobs in future - unemployment/underemployment - in 2003 unemployment in Uganda was 3.2%. However, 50% of the population are under 15 and so weren't counted in these figures. When the large youth population reaches working age there won't be enough jobs for them all, so unemployment will rise further, causing poverty to increase. -healthcare impacted - in Uganda around 6000 women die each year in childbirth. When the youthful population reaches reproductive age the pressure on the health service will be even greater. The health service is also stretched because of HIV/AIDS. As this is passed on from mother to child and through unprotected sex, it may spread further when the youthful population start to have children, putting even more strain on the health system. -resources - deforestation, overgrazing, desertification -pollution as country industrialises

DTM - UK - STAGE 1

-medieval times, high birth and death rates (around 35 per 1000). -generally birth rate little higher than death rate - slow rate of natural increase. -birth rate remained relatively stable, death rate varied. -in 1348-1349, bubonic plague (black death) killed one third of population. -other plagues followed in 17th century, including Great Plague of 1665. -increase in mortality between 1720 and 1740, which is attributed to availability of cheap gin. This was ended by the introduction of the gin tax in 1751.

DTM - UK - STAGE 2

-mid 18th century to 1875 - rapid urbanisation -this alerted public officials and enlightened industrialists to the urgent need for improvements in public health -factory workers recognised that unhealthy workforce had a huge impact on productivity -provision of clean, piped water and installation of sewage systems, together with improved personal and domestic cleanliness, saw incidence of diarrhoeal diseases and typhoid fall rapidly -greater disposable income from factory wages - more food being consumed by working class and wider range of food products being demanded -improvements in farming practices and transport systems allowed demand to be met -better nutrition played significant role in decline in infant mortality -better nutrition and health improvements brought about by Public Health Acts of 1848 and 1869, caused the incidence of infectious diseases such as scarlet fever and tuberculosis to diminish -soap became well advertised product and the availability of cheaper cotton clothing was important

Disadvantages of the DTM

-not all diseases are linked to the food supply e.g. HIV/AIDS. DTM assumes that an increasing death rate (e.g. because of the spread of HIV/AIDS) would lead to a higher birth rate to compensate for it. Despite the increase in death rate caused by HIV/AIDS in some African countries, there is no evidence of the birth rate increasing as a result. -assumes population trends follow food supply - however more likely to mirror industrialisation -countries never have uniform populations (differences in urban/rural areas and income groups) -social change can reduce birth rates e.g. education for girls -political changes (e.g. China's one child policy) artificially cut short stages 2 and 3 in the DTM -government migration policies - disturb natural population trends of DTM -original model did not have a fifth stage -eurocentric - based on European cultures -does not allow for role of governments

Demographic transition model - stage 1

-rural, pre-industrial society -existing by subsistence farming, little surplus food -high death rate - regular famines. Lack of safe water and proper sanitation, lead to disease and hunger -birth rate stays high to compensate for this -population growth is slow -e.g. tribes in the rainforests of Brazil

Management strategies should aim towards sustainable development

-sustainable development = developing and growing to meet the needs of people today, without hindering the ability of people in the future to meet their own needs. It involves getting what we need now without damaging or altering the environment in an irreversible way -generally the strategies to manage growing elderly or youthful populations don't help development on their own - achieving sustainable development requires lots of strategies in lots of different areas 1) encouraging larger families - creates an even larger population that'll need housing, transport, food etc. This isn't sustainable unless the populations needs are met in a sustainable way e.g. carbon-neutral homes, low or no emission transport, food that's produced in an environmentally friendly way with few food miles 2) encouraging the immigration of working-age people - on its own this doesn't help towards sustainable development. E.g. more working people require more jobs, which could be in heavily polluting industries, or in offices that uses electricity etc. Unless these needs are met in a sustainable way, the strategy on its own isn't sustainable 3) controlling birth rate - this helps towards sustainable development as the population won't get much bigger. But if the needs of the population still aren't met in a sustainable way, then it just stops the problem getting any worse

Advantages of an ageing population

-the grey pound - lots of old people with lots of money - helps certain companies, inheritance for families (economic) -some old people still work and contribute to the economy (economic) -support grandchildren (social) -lower crime rate - old people generally don't commit crime (social) -old people have knowledge and skill to pass on (social) -some volunteer work (social) -highly influential in politics, tend to vote (political)

Advantages of the DTM

-universal in concept - it can be applied to all countries in the world (doesn't work exactly the same for every country) -it is a good starting point for the study of demographic change - allows discussion -timescale is flexible -birth and death rate figures are flexible, not meant to be a graph -easy to understand - initial 4 stages -enables comparisons between countries to be made -countries can look at model and plan, see what they need to do to progress through the stages

Sustainable development for Uganda

1) encouraging contraception - this should reduce birth rate and help prevent overpopulation from getting any worse. This means the country can focus on sustainable development for the current population, without the population increasing dramatically and putting pressure on sustainable development strategies. 2) reducing the spread of disease - this relieves pressure on the health care system, which frees up money to be used elsewhere, e.g. in developing sustainable irrigation techniques for rural farming communities.

What problems are caused by the ageing population in the UK?

1) pressure on the pension system - there aren't enough people of working age to pay for an adequate pension for the retired population. State pensions are paid for by the working populations through taxes. -today, 60% of the population (people of working age) are paying taxes that go towards the pensions of 19% of the population (people of retirement age) -by 2030, only 56% of the population will be of working age but the taxes they pay will have to pay for the pensions of the 27% of the population of retirement age 2) more elderly people living in poverty - the state pension isn't very large, and many people don't have other savings. The working population isn't large enough to provide a better pension. 3) pressure on the health service - older people often need more medical care than younger people, e.g. the average stay in hospital in 2005 for people over 75 was 13 nights, but only 8 nights for the UK population as a whole.

Strategies used in the UK

1) the age of retirement has been increased - retirement age in the UK is currently 65 for men and 60 for women, but it will be raised to 68 for everyone by 2050. Increasing the retirement age means people have to work for longer, increasing the size of the working population. 2) encouraging immigration of working age people - the UK has allowed unlimited immigration of people from countries who joined the EU in 2004 e.g. Poland. In 2004, around 80% of immigrants that came to the UK from the new EU countries were 34 or under. This also increases the size of the working population. 3) encouraging more women to have children - the UK pension proposals mean women won't lose out on state pensions if they take career breaks to have children. This could encourage women to have children. Working family tax credits support women (and men) who go back to work once their children are born, which might also encourage couples to have more children.

Migration

Any permanent change of residence by a person. Emigration is the movement of people away from an area. Immigration is the movement of people into an area.