POSC 423 Midterm

Presidential primaries Vavreck, Lynn and John Sides: "The Republicans Almost Went Insane"

Gingrich does well in south carolina, no republican party support, he loses out in other primaries. Santorum does well in states with no delegates. Romney not as good with Evangelicals but does good with party and money so he wins.

Zelizer, Julian E: "Grading President Trump."

Good presidency defined by being able to get things done. Base supports him, but he's not good. Bad on legislation passing, bad for the institution. Too many scandals. No wars though so plus.

Other notes about primaries/caucuses

- 1972 McGovern Frasier - made delegate selection process more democratic - Caucuses - Democrats - preference groups, stand in the sides of the room- if your candidate is not viable you join into a group that is viable in a second round - Republican- meeting, you write down the candidate you want in a secret ballot, they give speeches - Iowa is the first caucus - Primaries - New Hampshire is the first primary

Congress and President as multiple principals

-Congress approves budgets and executive appointments -Makes congress an additional principle to the appointees -Article written by teacher -Ideological portfolios of cabinet of bush and clinton -A lot of clumping in the center - Principals that matter are president, house median, senate median, sfp (fillibuster).

Types of Unilateral Action

1. Executive Order 2. Executive Agreement 3. Presidential Proclamations 4. Signing Statement

Sources of Authority for UA

1. Statutory 2. Constitutional

Streb, Matthew J., Barbara Burrell, Brian Frederick, and Michael Genovese: "Social Desirability Effects and Support for a Female American President"

26 percent of the public is "angry or upset" about the prospect of a female president. Public lying about support for female prez. List experiment very effective. Desirability effect and societal norms very impactful.

"What is the Electoral College?"

A Process not a place. Made by Founders as a balance between people electing and elites/elected officials electing. 538 votes, need 270.

Facts about Electoral College from lecture

Allocation of electors by state- each state has the # of electors that equal the # of house representatives plus 2 senators In 48 states, there's a winner takes all system In 2 states (Maine and nebraska)- congressional districts 1 vote to each district winner and then the senator votes go to the whole state winner Unintended consequences A candidate wins the popular vote but not the electoral college

Apple, R.W.: "The 1992 campaign; Democrats; Clinton the Front-Runner is Also the Prey as the First Primary Nears"

Attack on Bill clinton for evading war and not doing much in Arkansas

Coral Davenport and Adam Nagourney: "Fighting Trump on Climate, California Becomes a Global Force"

California at the forefront of progressive environmental policy. Strong economy and strong environmental policy. But fears of business moving out if rest of the country has much weaker enviro policy. California fights back against trump. Leads the world in environmental policy. 8th largest economy

Example of Progressive Ambition

Clinton- First Lady, then Senator, then Secretary of state. She was not up for reelection when she ran for president (would be a significant cost). She was seen as the likely candidate and winner for a long time (liklihood of winning). Risk taker (had run in the past). However, she did have some political liabilities (woman, emails).

Sharece Thrower: "Policy Disruption Through Regulatory Delay in the Trump Administration"

Congressional Review Act (CRA) got rid of many obama regulations but then ran out after 60 day period. Regulatory delay for organizational and political reasons. An effective way to impead previous administrations actions. easier than legislating. Policies of the opposite party are delayed. difficult and complicated policies are delayed. lack of funding and leadership delay policies. Delaying policy is understudied but also makes intuitive sense. Courts can prevent unilateral action from trump.

Justin Wise: "Schwarzenegger: Trump Out of His Mind if He Thinks He Can Revoke California's Emissions Waiver"

Contradictory to federalism (States rights) to revoke California's own waiver to set higher emission standards. Schwarzenegger fights back against trump. Coming court battles over California's environmental waiver. Important for california businesses.

Gbemende Johnson: "Executive Power and Judicial Deference: Judicial Decision Making on Executive Power Challenges in the American States"

Courts are more likely to uphold executive power in environments where the threat of institutional retaliation from the executive is high. judges are far less likely to rule in favor of executive power when the legislators are in dispute with the governor and when the court and the legislature share preferences. Executive branch can threaten courts through defunding and firing. Public support for executive and executive specific cases deter the judicial state branches.

Predictors of Election Outcomes

Economy Presidential approval rating

David M. Konisky and Neal D. Woods: "Environmental Federalism and the Trump Presidency"

Environmental federalism: the cooperative role of the federal government and states in implementing and legislating environmental policy. Question of whether states or federal govt should take a leading role. Scott Pruitt as Administrator of the EPA. Trump has been successful in rolling back cpp. Gives more power to states. California fights back against this.

Gridlock interval in UA

F= filibuster pivot in Senate If 59 senators don't want something to happen, that's enough to stop something. In practice this is the 60th senator in the senate M= house median member of Congress Middle person in congress 218th person V= veto pivot in Congress ⅔ member in the senate to overturn veto ⅔ member of 435 to overturn presidential veto P= president Q= status quo policy

Sides, John, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck: "How Trump Lost and Won"

First, fundamental economic and political trends favored a Democratic popular vote win. Second, the party coalitions had become more polarized by race and education during Obama's presidency. Third, Trump's focus on issues connected to ethnic and social identities made attitudes toward immigration and African-Americans more important in voters' choices in 2016 than they had been in 2012.

Nicholas Confessore and Danny Hakim: "Data Firm Says Secret Sauce Aided Trump; Many Scoff"

Joke of a company, didn't actually do much. Claims it won trump election, couldn't even help Ted Cruz. Didn't actually use psychographic, lied about brexit involvement. cambridge analytica

Toner, Robin: "The 1992 campaign: New Hampshire; Bush Jarred in First Primary; Tsongas Wins Democratic Vote"

Mr. Buchanan pushes bush further right, no New Taxes. Bush looks beatable. Heat taken off Clinton After primary.

Data analytics and presidential campaigns: Scherer, Michael: "Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win"

Obama used big data to raise 1 billion. Combined data that it had from multiple departments, started working together, started keeping better tabs on who had voted and who had yet to vote. Run multiple simulations, outspent Romney and was very efficient.

Rottinghaus, Brandon and Justin Vaugh: "Measuring Obama Against Great Presidents."

Obama's standing in polls has evolved. He's fine, not great. Will slowly rise. → Can only correctly determine Pres. ratings in hindsight. Tends to go up or down with time. → Greatest Presidents: FDR, Lincoln, etc.

Martin, Jonathan and Alexander Burns: "Republican Shadow Campaign for 2020 Takes Shape as Trump Doubts Grow"

Pence is doing a lot of fundraising and hosting events. Republicans are setting themselves for a run in 2020 against trump. Maybe trump is impeached, maybe steps down. Conservatives are getting prepared.

Toner, Robin: "The 1992 campaign: Political Memo; Backlash for Hillary Clinton"

People hate Hillary, she won't bake cookies. Hillary changes her image, most important thing is her daughter and appearing on baking shows. Hillary seen as not important to people's vote for Bill. Hillary initially not looking like a first lady "should"

Vavreck, Lynn: "The Way the 2016 Election Was Perfectly Normal"

People voted on party lines and the economy predicted things very well.

Sarah Almukhtar, Tony Griggs, and Karen Yourish: "How Trump's Policy Change Separated Migrant Children from Their Parents"

Policy change: all illegal border crossings criminally prosecuted. Adults detained awaiting trial. Children sent to facilities because they cannot be indefinitely detained.

Careerists vs Political Appointees

Political appointees the agent of executive branch. Careerists work for the govt for their career. They serve under multiple white houses- hired based on merit. Not approved by the senate, just hired by someone above them in the bureaucracy. Cannot be fired by the president just because. If president can't keep political appointees in power for a long time, then that gives careerists more power to do what they please.

Principal-Agent problem

President casts a broad vision and delegate to your agent (appointees) to implement policy... can't be an expert in every area .

Paul Abramson, John Aldrich, and David Rohde: "Progressive Ambition among United States Senators: 1972-1988"

Progressive ambition is the desire to run for higher office. The model predicts that senators will be more likely to run for president if their relative costs of running are low, if they have no political liabilities that might reduce their chances of winning, and if they have a propensity to take risk, and if they have a higher likelihood of winning. They run if they are not up for reelection, they are not women, minorities, too old, too young, in their first term. They also run if they ran against incumbent for their senate seat. If they are proven risk takers. Only really looked at Democrats, only looked at senators. Tries to predict who will run in the future elections.

"Frequently Asked Questions" about the Electoral College

Proposals made to change electoral college not likely to implement. You vote for delegates not the actual candidates. Delegates don't have to vote for who the state voted for. Winner take all in most states.

Anthony Bertelli and Christian Grose: "The Spatial Model and the Senate Trial of Bill Clinton"

Spatial Voting Model with ideological estimates for senators best predicting the trial outcome. Further supports mayhews view of position taking for congressmen. Senate voted based on politics not on the actual merits of the case. Mayhew's contention that position taking for constituency benefit is rather costless. We conclude that when asked to be judges, senators, faced with multifarious political incentives, are more likely to act like legislators

Julia Azari: "Presidential Impeachments are about Politics, Not Law"

Talks about Johnson and Clinton. Legal positions did not line up with actual voting. Senators voted like it was a legislative matter and not a judicial one.The main checks on presidential power are found in politics, not in law.

Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr.: "Rating the Presidents: Washington to Clinton."

The great presidents come in times of conflict. They divide and then unite the country. They have goals and are commanding in Washington. → Ability of Presidents to deal with internal conflict (scandals aka Monica Lewinsky, personal scandals aka Access Hollywood Trump tape) & external conflict (wars, 9/11, natural disasters) → Ratings go up or down depending on how dealt with (Bush did well w 9/11, made him higher up)

Loyalty-Competence Tradeoff

The idea that presidents are always faced with balancing a couple of different things they look for when making appointments loyalty vs competence. Example: Jim Mattis- trump places a lot of value on military accomplishment (competency). But significant ideological disloyalty especially in relation to iran. Also Rex Tillerson. Very personally loyal. Competent as seen by Trump in the business world, but maybe not so much in government.

Benjamin Newman, Sono Shah, and Loren Collingwood: "Race, Place, and Building a Base: Latino Population Growth and the Nascent Trump Campaign for President"

This work leads to the hypothesis that residing in an area where the Latino population experienced considerable growth should serve as a predictor of Trump support, but only after Trump's inflammatory and bellicose pronouncements concerning Mexican immigration.

Alana Abramson: "President Trump Signs Executive Order to Keep Immigrant Families Together"

Trump claims to still be strong on border but signs executive order to undo his last executive order of splitting up families

Rottinghaus, Brandon and Justin Vaughn: "Official Results of the 2018 Presidents & Executive Politics Presidential Greatness Survey."

Trump is polarizing along with obama and bush. Trump is bad president. All of this is controlled for when looking at party affiliation. Even republicans don't give Trump good grade. Dems and Republicans see different presidents as great.

Patel, Jugal K. and Wilson Andrews: "Trump's Electoral College Victory Ranks 46th in 58 Elections"

Trump lost popular vote by large margin. Trump won electoral college by modest numbers.

Going public

a president's strategy of appealing to the public on an issue, expecting that public pressure will be brought to bear on other political actors. More popular the president, more effective. Trump does this constantly.

Moe and Howell: "Unilateral Action and Presidential Power: A Theory"

Unilateral action: Pres. issues decision without the preceding consent or proposal of Congress. Goes before Congress in order of decision-making. Executive orders, presidential memorandums, presidential proclamation, signing statements Presidents have incentives to expand their institutional power, and they operate within a formal governance structure whose pervasive ambiguities—combined with advantages inherent in the executive nature of the presidential job—give them countless opportunities to move unilaterally into new territory, claim new powers, and make policy on their own authority. Congress has only a weak capacity for stopping them, because its collective action problems render it ineffective and subject to manipulation. The Supreme Court is capable of taking action against presidents, but is unlikely to want to most of the time and has incentives to be sympathetic.

Jeffrey Crouch, Mark J. Rozell, Mitchel A. Sollenberger: "The Law: The Unitary Executive Theory and President Donald J. Trump

Unilateral component combined with constant expansion and that the president only has the power to make these actions. And checks and balances Unitary part is the PRESIDENT not the executive branch has the authority Incentive in general for presidents to expand use of UA

Unilateral Action

any policy decision made and acted upon by the president and his staff without the explicit approval or consent of Congress

Schaffner, MacWilliams, Nteta: "Explaining White Polarization in the 2016 Vote for President"

gap between college-educated and non- college-educated whites was possibly the single most important divide documented in 2016. racial attitudes and sexism were much more strongly related to support for Trump. Voters with sexist and racist views voted for trump but this correlation did not exist for past candidates.

Anderson, Carol: "The Policies of White Resentment"

white identity is often defined by its sense of being ever under attack, with the system stacked against it