PS M181B Final

The 2010 Midterm Election

After two years in office, Obama faced considerable opposition and wave election for republicans in 2010 2010 saw the rise of the tea party, which also coincided with a rise in anti-immigrant sentiment Latino voters were generally opposed to the tea party movement and helped Senate democrats Obamas 100 Days in office From latino perspective, Obama was very popular 77% feel he is in touch with the community 67% things will get better High overall approval rating Obama put almost all of his political capital into passing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) Tried to push it fast so they could move on to other issues, given Democratic majority in all chambers Democrats entered the 2010 midterm under attack Many of the core constituency groups were disappointed that more of the democratic agenda was not enacted in 2009-2010 Latino voter enthusiasm and actual turnout vote Previous latino enthusiasm and turnout was high, actual turnout was 60% In presidential years, enthusiasm was high and turnout was 84% During this midterm, enthusiasm was extremely low (49%) because they could only pass one bill, a watered down Affordable Care act More or Less Excited About (Reps/Dems) Concerning that more and less excited was the same Because dems were not delivering on their promises Intended Vote for Congress 06 and 10 More people in 10 were unsure of their vote Heading into the spring, Latinos looked like they would be less relevant in 2010 midterms Political landscape shift quickly through the passage of SB 1070 in AZ This was consequential to shifting modern politics for Latinos Many tea party candidates that emerged were running for office on a strict anti-immigration platform and in support of SB 1070 Tea party candidates made this a centerpiece of the party by de-seating moderate republicans Immigration as a campaign issue-Nevada "Waves of illegal aliens streaming across our borders, joining violent gangs, forcing families to live in fear" Harry Reid ads show that SB 1070 became a national issue In response, Harry Reid increased Latino mobilization Immigration now became one of the most important issues Most election analysts thought that the Democrats would lose control of the senate In particular, both nevada and colorado were likely to be lost Polls released just before election showed Republicans would win both NV and CO On election day, latinos turned out at very high rates for a midterm and had record high Dem vote Latino votes also critical to CA, CO governor's race Afterwards, the media narrative was that the hispanic vote saved harry reid 2010 Lessons Learned Tea party movement revealed a small, but well organized group of conservatives opposed to immigration and immigrant rights Second big issue was straight opposition to obama Some democrats, such as harry reid, were credited for creating a "playbook" to signal how to win by running a pro-immigrant campaign Latino voters reversed the national trend of a wave election for republicans, setting the stage for 2012

What influences Latino Opinions?

Everyone's own individual characteristics influence their views on politics However, as we learned last week, there are some common influences that many latinos share Catholic church or role of immigration are two examples of these commonalities Many latinos are connected to the church or to immigration experiences These unique influences often lead people to say Latinos are both conservative and liberal Latinos are more likely to be influenced by their community oriented perspective

Garcia and Sanchez Ch 5

Modern democracies theoretically reflect the will of the people, and rest on the idea of the consent of the governed Can reprimand any govt/leader that does not live up to the peoples' expectations Therefore, what people think about govt is very important to democracy working correctly This is where the idea of public opinion comes in, serves as a check on leaders Concerns of citizens must be known to the govt Act out their will through elections What else can be done between elections? below Why public opinion matters Public officials are constantly measuring their constituents opinions on key policy issues Do this to ensure their reelection (maybe so they can provide good policy that suits our opinions, which is optimistic) The media also pays attention to public opinion to try to influence the debates on politics Media thinks that they reflect our views as well Want to let the govt officials what they need to pay attention to In many ways, public opinion may be seen as a way for the general public to influence the govt in between election cycles Keeps officials on track Ex. the Impeachment Inquiry. At the point that there was a large group of people who cared about this, the process started. The media and public opinion is what indicated our interest in this to public officials Examples of Public opinion Laws Concerning the sale of firearms should be made less strict, more strict, or kept as they are? More strict is majority, not many to make less strict, some that say keep it the same Do you oppose or support stricter gun laws Mostly support Should we repeal 2nd amendment Few support it Not a big conversation about this Looking at this, you have two choices More important to protect gun laws or control gun violence? This is what the debate is really about The question becomes: Who's Public Opinion Matters? Typically, public opinion surveys and trended to under-represent minorities Why is this happening? We want the surveys to be reflective of actual constituents During the 1980s, there was a push to increase African American representation in survey research Latinos still tend to be underrepresented in most public opinion surveys The first major political science survey of Lainos was in 1989, the LNPS In 1980, hispanic appeared on the census for the first time Do you support or oppose AZ immigration law 1070? 70 percent say they supported it However, in a survey of just latinos, 81 % of latinos oppose the law Most national surveys are still conducted in English only and exclude non-english speakers Some surveys are starting to offer spanish versions when requested Growing interest in Latino and Asian American public opinion has expanded techniques to help gather more accurate public opinion data In 2008-12, the ANES had large oversamples of Blacks and Latinos for the first time, first time offered in spanish This is the main study that influences political science studies and ideas 2008-12 National Asian American Survey was also conducted separately

Latino Median Age By Ethnicity Chart

The latino population is very young, younger than other groups Could be because Latino households have more kids, which forces the average age down This also means that the percentage of possible latino voters is going to increase. Projected to double within 20 years

Immigration issue and the 2012 vote

82% of latino people who think immigration was an issue voted obama 78% of latinos who know an undoc person voted obama Shows that although immigration is not the only issue Latinos care about, it is an important indicator issue

Patterns of Political Participation

Garcia and Sanchez Ch.6 Latino population has grown steadily over recent decades However, the number of Latino voters lags considerably In addition to individual level factors, many institutional factors may limit or constrain how many people vote "The Untapped Latino Electorate" Also a gap between the eligible voting population and the registered voting population What explains these gaps? Barriers to latino participation To major demographic variables: Age: population is very young, cant vote Citizenship: many latinos are non-citizens, cant vote What other institutional factors have been at play that have diminished the latino vote? Cycle of Undermobilization: campaigns less likely to contact you if you have not voted consistently in the past Vote Denial Before the voting rights act, there were things that blocked voting Today, similar things exist that inhibit latino vote Voting materials only being available in english Long term residency requirements (had to prove that you had been living in that jurisdiction for a certain amount of days) This disadvantages migrant workers, who do not often hold down a residence for a long time Limited registration hours In places with large migrant worker populations, registration places would be open during the hours that people would be working Also would change hours suddenly to avoid collective efforts to vote Registration access points very limited These tactics were used to make it harder for people to vote Poll taxes, literacy tests, citizenship tests are also in place in some places Voter intimidation Would scare people away from voting Could put voting office next to ICE office, have immigration officials present Vote Dilution Make votes less of importance At-large electoral systems To win, you have to have 51% of the vote to elect someone, making it hard for minority groups to affect change As opposed to having districts, which can cater better to specific interests Candidate slating In order to win, you must run with running mates If you didn't get on a popular slate, you couldn't win Gerrymandering In district systems, the districts are drawn to ensure that the latino population doesn't go past the point of them being a majority How districts are apportioned can dilute the vote and put you in a district that makes your vote irrelevant Ex. latinos in Anaheim. Not one out of 7 city council members were latino Solutions Voting Rights act of 1965 1975 amendments extend to "language minorities" This opened up opportunities for language protections Access to early voting By denying access or closing down early voting sites in Latino communities, you can silence the latino vote Voter ID laws (Denial and Dilution) If you vote without an ID, they can put you in jail The Federal Voting Rights Act (how does it help these issues) Section 2 provides venue for plaintiffs to bring lawsuits against jurisdictions if their voting rights are being denied or diluted Section 5 provided Federal Govt, US DOJ oversight of suspect jurisdictions with history of vote denial In 2013, SCOTUS struck down Section 4b formula of VRA which regulated Section 5 in Shelby v Holder The California Voting Rights Act Federal VRA has been interpreted more narrowly. Thus, it is a lot harder to win under the federal voting rights act California passed its own act in 2002 Allows civil rights groups to bring lawsuits under California law against at-large jurisdiction If they can prove that the at large system is preventing minority groups from getting elected to office, they can win the lawsuit Has resulted in considerable increases in latino elected officials at the local level in CA

The 2008 Presidential Primary

Really the only election where the campaign made early efforts (during primaries) to engage the latino community Hillary clinton has a steady and consistent advantage over newcomer barack obama Many questioned if racial animus was at play. Data suggests latinos simply did not know obama Thought there was racial tension between blacks and latinos 2008 is the first year since 1968 when latinos had a real chance to impact a presidential primary Previous outreach to latinos happened very late in the election cycle. This election was different Part of the reason for Latinos not being contacted was the primary calendar. Iowa, new hampshire, south carolina were all LESS that 1% latino When candidates go to these states with early primaries, they do not even consider latinos 2008: nevada, floridea, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, New Jersey, New York, Illinois, and Texas all happen early, making latinos more important The GOP Candidates John McCain: Eventual Nominee Moderate, good for latinos Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney 2012 nominee Ron Paul Rudy Giuliani Running on his legacy as NY mayor The Dem Candidates Hillary Clinton Very formidable candidate, which could have deterred others from running, may explain why not very many candidates ran First "Viable" presidential candidate 1964 Republican candidate margarette smith 1972 Dem Shirley Chisolm Elected to the US senate in 2000 in NY, re-elected in 2006 Able to draw on many advisors from Bill Clinton's Presidency Had worked in latino communities in texas in 1970s voter registration drives Barack Obama First viable AA president 1972 dem candidate Shirley Chisholm 1984/1988 Jesse Jackson Elected to Illinois state senate in 1996-2004 Father was an immigrant from Kenya, his mother was a white woman from kansas who did the most to raise him Bill Richardson First viable latino presidential candidate 1972 La Raza Unida Party candidate Jose Angel Gutierrez Born in California, raised in mexico city until 13 Served in New Mexico Legislature US Congress to New Mexico Ambassador to the UN Secretary of Energy Governor of New Mexico Touted his political resume to show he was most qualified John Edwards "Son of a Mill Worker" Said this because he was super rich, but came from nothin From a poor, working class family in south carolina Many other notable candidates are similar: Carter and Clinton Became a well known trial lawyer, big case in 1997 Elected to US senate in 1998 Ran for pres in 2004, lost, but was named VP candidate for John Kerry Main theme that he ran on was the "war on poverty"

Latinos and Political Ideology

(Liberal vs Conservative) Latinx are pretty similar to white people in terms of percent of ideology We see that Latinx conservatives are still more likely to vote Democrat that white conservatives, less than black conservatives The notion of ideological sorting does not fit as well to non-white people in the US (liberal=dem, conservative=rep)

The Untapped Electorate: Numbers

12.5 mil voted 2.5 are registered, not voting 8.6 are eligible, not registered 5.4 are eligible for citizenship G.5 are eligible under comprehensive immigration reform This is a huge amount of potential untapped voters In CA, 3,402,000 are eligible to vote but not registered 4,211,000 registered in total In TX, 2,751,000 eligible to vote, not registered 2,843,000 registered in total, making the registration rate about 50% In FL, 1,423,000 elligible to vote, not registered 1,723,000 registered In these cases, close elections could EASILY have been swung by these voters

Signs of Unity among Latinos

2006 Immigration Rallies Marches showed that latinos -immigrants or not- are united and would not tolerate further discrimination Marched against immigration policies. Latinos rallied across national origins to protest very anti-latino policies Relatively even participation across nationality Arizona SB 1070 Allowed officers to stop you and ask for papers with no reason There was opposition across generations, but the further you are away from 1st generation there is less opposition and more support Could be because they feel somewhat disconnected from the culture as they continue across generations Shows that regardless of party, there is some opposition to immigration policy. However, republican latinos were the most likely to support the bill Everyone, regardless of generation, feels likely that they will be stopped even if they are legal immigrants Support for DACA 77% of Latinos support In CA 82% In TX 72% In FL 66% These are relatively high because in these areas, there are high Latino populations who may be affected by these policies 1st gen support: 78% 2nd gen support: 84% 3rd gen support: 67% This trend could be indicative of the fact that a lot of families are mixed status 18 to 39 support: 86% Over 60: 73% This trend could be indicative of the traditional conservative attitudes held by older latinos Looking forward: Is this unity temporary or long-term? Could be increased disunity as the population grows Could be long term because as the US born population grows, they could lose ties to their home countries and identify more with Latinos generally What factors could lead to more division within the latino community? National origin/culture Economic status? Political affiliation/partisanship Immigration policy via political partisanship What factors could contribute to continued or stronger unity? How has President Trump's rhetoric changed this? Paints all latinos with the same brush, does not see diversity. This could be unifying Opens the door for people who are prejudiced to be open with their biases, which could be divisive How has the El Paso Massacre Changed this? Hispanic community is becoming more concerned because they feel like targets. This could open them up to more participation or unity

The Latino Vote in 2014

2010 and 2012 showed setbacks for the GOP among latino voters Voted against tea party, help dems hold the senate Big question: is this a permanent trend, or short lived? Will Republicans position themselves more centrist on latino issues, in particular, comprehensive immigration reform following 2012? Immigration stance turned latinos off of romney, but 31% said they would be open to the GOP if they changed their stance o immigration Aftermath of the 2012 election Republican party issued the Growth and Opportunity report Found that if "hispanic americans hear that the GOP doesn't want them in the United States, they won't pay attention to the next sentence. It doesn't matter what we say about education, jobs or the economy; if hispanics think that we do not want..." GOP Lindsay Graham "The republican party is in a demographic death spiral as a party..." Latinos used to be open to the GOP Thinking about previous elections for president, governor, Congress, or state legislature, have you ever voted for a republican candidate? 49% have voted republican 49% have not 2% don't know This makes GOP think they could win back some of the latino electorate Latino vote if GOP works to BLOCK comprehensive immigration reform 8% said they were more likely to vote GOP 59% said they were less likely to vote GOP 29% said no impact Latino vote if GOP work to pass CIR More likely to vote GOP: 34% Less likely: 13% No impact: 51% This is a potential swing of 72 points, which is huge Lessons from 2014 2014 stood out in contrast to 2010 and 2012 with less obvious examples of "latino influence" Opportunities for immigration reform that never materialized, which confused people and angered them Favorable views towards both parties decreased, which adds up to lower participation There was no obvious "harry reid" campaign put into place to mobilize and engage latinos

The Untapped Latino Electorate

A lot of eligible latino voters, but people are not registering Why could this be? Due to language barriers, educational barriers, resource barrier, lack of efficacy Possible lack of cultural compulsion. Not super tied to US politics Candidates may not target the community as much Latinos could struggle to make time

Garcia and Sanchez: Inclusion or Exclusion?

A new dichotomy is emerging with respect to latinos "Hispanics are hip, hot..." Latino influence is threatening America's core values / culture Two very different ideas This dichotomy continues today Ex. Coco and Trump border action w/ national guard to combat "invasion" occurs at the same time

What explains the gap between the large Latino population and their comparatively low rates of voter registration, dubbed the "Untapped Latino Electorate"?

A number of traditional "resource based" factors can explain this gap Age: younger people are less likely to be registered to vote, typically because they think they are less likely to be impacted bc of lack of homeownership, no kids, etc. Bc latinos are so young, this lessens amount of voters Education and Income (socioeconomic status) People with less money may be less concerned with taxes, policies, etc Lack of education decreases the ability to engage with the topics Immigrant and citizenship status People who are not citizens cannot register to vote Undermobilization: institutional factor No one is contacting this popuation in their campaigns, which decreases the vote also decreases efficacy Lower levels of efficacy If you don't see any real changes or feel disenfranchised, turnout is lower

Lecture 8 News

AOC endorsed Cisneros (26 year old) in TX-28 over incumbent Cuellar, (texas tribune) https://www.texastribune.org/2019/10/22/aoc-endorses-democratic-primary-challenger-jessica-cisneros/ Warren also endorsed her, discussed earlier this quarter Cuellar is a conservative voting democrat (PBS) Census Bureau requesting state driver's license records to try and count citizenship https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/census-bureau-seeks-state-data-including-citizenship-info PPIC in California showed Latino support was low for Elizabeth Warren (about 5% among soanish speakers) and then she met with Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) (ABC News) https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sen-elizabeth-warren-earn-latino-communitys-vote-work/story?id=66351439 She has been gaining support Second candidate to meet with spanish caucus (CHC) in an attempt to increase support Other candidates have higher support. Sanders has 39% support, Biden 21% among Latinos

Coalitions and Alliances

As the number of Latino-Focused civic groups began to grow, they realized they were still outnumbered In many cases they formed coalitions with other Latino-focused groups to combine resources In other cases they formed alliances with non-Latino groups to reach an even larger audience Ex labor unions Still, component groups in these alliances must agree on enough issues and find a way to work together This is why they may not have as many super specifci policies

Why are Latinos Growing So Fast?

Because the population is young, creating the possibility for growth Latino population is growing, white is slowing down bc of relatively old population Foreign born Hispanic group is older, US born is younger

Vote Denial

Before the voting rights act, there were things that blocked voting Today, similar things exist that inhibit latino vote Voting materials only being available in english Long term residency requirements (had to prove that you had been living in that jurisdiction for a certain amount of days) This disadvantages migrant workers, who do not often hold down a residence for a long time Limited registration hours In places with large migrant worker populations, registration places would be open during the hours that people would be working Also would change hours suddenly to avoid collective efforts to vote Registration access points very limited These tactics were used to make it harder for people to vote Poll taxes, literacy tests, citizenship tests are also in place in some places Voter intimidation Would scare people away from voting Could put voting office next to ICE office, have immigration officials present

The Richardson Campaign in 2008

Born in pasadena in 1947 Moved back to mexico city within days Sent his son to be born in the US so he could be considered natural born Mother: Maria Luisa Lopez-Collada Father: William Blaine Richardson Jr Grandmother: Rosaura Ojeda Medero Was raised in mexico city Sent to boston for jr high and high school to receive a proper education experience All star baseball player, drafted to the pros Went to Tufts college in Boston, studied international affairs Worked in the state department, became very interested in foreign affairs Moved to santa fe new mexico and ran for congress Lost, but wound up in state legislature and moved up from there Many of his top advisors were latino Supported comprehensive immigration reform, pathway to citizenship Pressured obama and clinton to support this issue Called for an end to Iraq war, withdraw troops Had a fully translated website with every page in both english and spanish Slogan was: Mi Familia Con Richardson Incorporated his understanding and outreach of the latino community into every aspect of his campaign !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! In order to compete with richardson's latino appeal, other candidates increased their latino outreach efforts

The Latino Vote in 2016

Building on the success of the Obama coalition in 2012, the Democrats hoped to continue their strong support among latino voters Saw how well obama did in 2012, after adopting DACA to win Some adopted DACA recipients into their campaigns to raise support and serve as advisers As primary elections neared, the three leading democratic candidates all had extensive latino outreach directors in place Campaign town hall clips Shows that more attention to detail was given to these issues Shows that the candidates vowed to make comprehensive immigration reform a priority after Obama failed to do so in his election Sanders and Clinton, who both have questionable history with immigration reform, became strongly in support by 2016 Favorability indicators Obama highest Clinton and sanders about the same Republican candidates all doing poorly, trump has only 9% support Impact of Presidential Candidates Support for DAPA on Latino Vote 74% said they would be more likely to support a candidate who wanted to expand DAPA and DACA Both democrats were highly favored over trump

The Constitutional-Legal Context of Latinos

Civil Rights act of 1964 Started to establish legal rights for Mexican Americans and Puerto Ricans Voting Rights Act of 1965 (1975) Outlawed english only literacy tests Extended to latinos in 1975 Fair Housing Act of 1968 Outlaws housing covenants (rules passed by cities that prevented, legally, the sale of your house to a person of color) Also had rental covenants Equal representation Not necessarily an equal amount of Latinos in govt as proportionate to the population Federalism and State rights States do nefarious things to decrease latino influence Talk about Walkouts in schools that were instrumental in furthering rights Protested lack of materials, dropout rate, school conditions, lack of school district investment to address these issues Showed that latinos could be politically powerful

First Hispanic Census Count

Census first counts Hispanic in 1970 "Is this person's origin or descent: Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central or South American, Other Spanish, No No of These" was the question Other terms used by the census: 1930: Mexican; 1940: Spansih mother tongue Mexican was added because of the push from the Mexican consulates after the Mexican Revolution. Mexicans are trying to avoid being counted as black. Goes away by 1940 because of repatriation after the depression, which threatens deportation 1950/60: Spanish Surname First time a real count was taken was 1980 because ALL households had to respond to the hispanic option on the census. In 1970, only 1/20 people were given the census with that option

Lecture 11 News Items

Central Valley members of Congress (Jim Costa, Jimmy Panettas, TJ Cox) are pushing a bill to give a legal status to undocumented farm workers (Fresno Bee) https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article236820868.html Past immigration reform bill made provisions for trying to help farm workers gain status. Since repeal of DACA, there has been no attention to larger populations Chicago Tribune: Real ID is required to fly within the country by October 2020, expected to negatively impact Latinos, who may not have names printed the same way across documents https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/eric-zorn/ct-column-real-id-long-waits-zorn-20191031-s2c7ca5zknfdngwkmwfky5hkt4-story.html Every single name on every document has to be the same on all documents Since people use different naming customs, this may cause issues Reuters did an analysis of Donald Trump's facebook ad. 3000 Trump ads use the term "illegals" and different focus in Spanish ads. These ads focus on Venezuelan socialism and its dangers, no mention of illegals https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/trump-campaign-s-facebook-ads-call-deporting-illegals-spanish-ads-n1073896

Latinos in 2011: Continued Economic Stress

Chapter highlights that in 2011, a high percentage of latinos had been negatively impacted by the great recession Lower in homeownership, which elevates economic status However, a majority of latinos felt that the recession was caused more by bush than Obama And a majority of latinos felt that the Fed Govt should be doing more, not less, to help create opportunities As the economy was doing better, people look away from govt. In bad times like this, people look to govt After recovery from the 2008 crisis, latinos still felt that, overall, they had not improved much in terms of economic well being They also still expressed significant concerns over the economy in 2014 However, at the same time, when asked if they are optimistic about the future possibility of achieving the american dream, most latinos were overwhelmingly optimistic What Achieving the American Dream entails to Latinos Owing your own home: 53% Owning a business: 61% Creating more opportunities for your children: 95% Being treated equally no matter your background: 85% Barriers to achieving the American dream Most latinos were concerned with earning enough to pay expensive and that they faced a lack of career opportunities Minimum Wage Came out of the idea that the recession was so difficult due to low wages Latinos were more likely to support candidates that supported higher minimum wage

Latino Vote Choice in 2008 Primary

Clinton dominated in the early primaries, winning 8/9 states Of the 7 final states with sizable latino populations, obama won five, clinton won 2 Overall, when you add all states together, clinton won about ⅔ of the latino vote Clinon did especially well in big states with large and historic latino populations (CA,TX, NY, NJ, FL) What explains the vote? Following clinton's win in nevada, driven entirely by support from latinos it was said that Obama had a "Latino Problem" "The Hispanic Voter-and I want to say this very carefully..." Los Angeles Op-Ed, Raol Contreras "When truly given a choice..." "My retired ironworker grandfather..." The mainstream narrative was that Obama had a problem with Latinos What explains Clinton's success among latinos? Familiarity and high name recognition Bill Clinton left with high favorability among latinos Obama had low name recognition in the Latino community, so he couldn't gain traction In april 2007, 35% of latinos had not heard enough about Obama to give an opinion about obama In january 2008, 27% still had no opinion Clinton campaigned aggressively for the latino vote as a part of her "base" Campaign manager was latina Did a lot of latino outreach Clinton racked up high profile latino endorsements She ran extensive ads on Spanish language TV and radio Feb 2-3, reports of clinton ad on every commercial break on spanish radio Demographic fit with other patterns Clinton did well among low income voters, and voters without a college degree This was the profile of her strongest support, the hispanic community fits into this category demograohically

Census and Citizenship Status

Collecting data on citizenship status Stopped collecting data after 1950 on the decennial census Started collecting data on the annual ACS in 2006 Citizenship status data can be used for voting rights and redistricting Courts and redistricting commitrees In 2020 the Census tried to add citizenship Commerce secretary Ross claimed that this was to aid the departmetn of justice in voting rights Opponents claimed it was being used to intimidate immigrants and reduce true population count Citizenship question was struck down by courts 3 federal courts in CA, NY, and MD all ruled against

Latinos and Community Oriented Values

Community - Oriented Values Political Scientist Michael Dawson introduces the concept of "Linked Fate" in describing African American community No strong ties to democratic party, against republican Do share a common background Among latinos, at least ⅓ choose community based reasons for voting in a Dem v Rep partisan election As we saw in the unity chapter, it is likely that many more also support the notion of community oriented values Extensive research suggests that high levels of ethnic group identity result in higher political participation What are the main factors that drive community oriented values? Or in group identity? Many of our current PhD students are doing research in this connection

Tracking Latino Socioeconomic Status

Data from the Census suggests that Latinos have made gains in education, income, occupation, and homeownership At the same time, the overall latino population has made little to no gains How can these both be true? Continued rate of immigration, and relative young age of latino population masks changes Young people and immigrants bring the rates down, even though it may be improving This makes it difficult to track latino progress Comparing Latinos to other ethnic groups Other ethnic groups are often used as examples Irish, Italian, Jewish, and German immigrants had lower levels of socioeconomic status in the 1st generation But immigration flows stopped / slowed after WWII / European stabilization and integration eventually became possible Among 2nd, 3rd, 4th generation latinos we observe considerable increases in socioeconomic status Discrimination continues to play a negative role

The Attitudinal Setting of Latinos in Society

Data shows that Latinos continue to occupy the bottom rung of the social ladder in the eyes of the general public Appear in movies as criminals, laborers. etc. Significant negative stereotypes continue to exist about latinos Important to monitor this and assess how/if opinions change

Are Demographics Destiny? Latino America Chapter 4

Despite a large and rapidly growing population, the number of latino voters lags considerably behind the total population A number of structural reasons explains this gap Common pundit explanations: they don't want to, dont care, too lazy Structural reasons/barriers are more accurate explanations of this gap What can be done? What are the best strategies to bring more Latinos into the electorate The untapped Latino Electorate Number of eligible voters doubled from 2000-2018 Number of registered voters is growing, but much less. The gap in the middle is the untapped latino electorate

Latino America Ch 2: Demographic Change in Latino Community

Latino population is increasing rapidly Population is very diverse Despite this, their sense of unity has grown Demographic Change Graph: Shows white population expected to decrease up to 2050, while the populations of Latinos, blacks, and other racial groups will grow

The Voter Mobilization Gap

Did someone from a political party ask you to vote? 44% yes overall 47% of whites 38% African american 33% latino 21% asian american This is important because this is the most important determining factor that encourages people to vote!

Virginia 2017: MS-13

Elections are on off years Governor competition is always close bc they are only in office for one term max Serves as the "beginning of 2018" and indicates some of the trends that would be seen in the midterms Anti-immigrant Ads Backfired During his campaign for VA governor, Ed Gillespie said that sanctuary cities, which try to help immigrants, are actually promoting violent gangs. He said that illegal immigrants are a dangerous threat to public safety These ads caused a net negative 34% among latinos AAs experienced a 73% negative Even more whites were negative about it ncreased turnout in Immigrant Communities Manassas City up 243% Manassass Park up 236% Places with immigrant voters had higher than expected turnout Increased awareness in Final Weeks People overwhelmingly thought that Northam was welcoming to immigration Gillespie was viewed as unwelcoming After the ad, candidates were viewed as which side of the isle they were on for this issue Virginians are pro-immigrant

Lecture 7 News

Elijah Cummings, civil rights advocate, died today. Fought for voting rights protection laws, working with MLK, blocked citizenship question Latinx discussion NBC News: House is holding the first meeting on the Latinx Museum https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/house-holds-its-first-hearing-smithsonian-latino-museum-n1068246

Advances in Latino public opinion

During the 2000s Latino civic groups began to collect public opinion data to help raise their voice They wanted to show the media and policy makers where Latinos stood on the issues of the day As the latino community grew and became more critical, more and more public opinion data was collected Today, many non latino groups in Washington DC also collect data on latinos Some of the groups who are leading this charge include: NALEO Unidos (National Council of La Raza) Americas Voice Latino Visionary Project Media such as univision, Telemundo, La Opinion Robert Wood Johnson Health Foundation Labor Unions

Lecture 12 News

Election day across 5 states: VA, KY, MS, NJ... VA GOP holds a slim majority in the state legislature. These races may show clues for 2020(CNN) https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/04/politics/election-2019-key-races/index.html VA has an important role for latinos, could swing it NJ has a lot of latinos as well Political report shows that Bernie Sanders has most donations from Latinx voters out of any candidate (politico) https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/05/bernie-sanders-latino-2020-vote-065820 Has the most money overall Has the highest percentage of latino voters, also has the highest number of raw voters Latino victory fund looking to recruit a latinx candidate for CA-25, 32% of voters are latino in this district, Katie Hills old district (Roll Call)

Lecture 13 News

Equal Rights Amendment to the US constitution (ERA) is one state short of being ratified (need ⅔). Virginia has just flipped democratic and the new state legislature and Gov plan to ratify the ERA (Virginian Pilot) https://www.pilotonline.com/government/virginia/vp-nw-equal-rights-virginia-20191026-argqhcws6ff6dh2h3xtk2265dy-story.html Virgina has a hugely influential latino/a voting block and thus played a role in the flip of virginia Tucson voters reject Sanctuary city ballot measure that would have reduced the effects of SB 1070 (CBS). https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tucson-sanctuary-city-vote-pro-immigrant-measure-rejected-by-voters-in-liberal-arizona-city/ Could be the result of bad organizing, poor outreach, etc Julian Castro is cutting staff in NH and SC; Kamala Harris is cutting staff, focusing now on Iowa (CBS) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/julian-castro-2020-eliminates-campaign-staff-in-new-hampshire-and-south-carolina/ Bloomberg is thought to be announcing his candidacy for president. Is a moderate billionaire candidate. Ex. mayor of NYC Has been democratic and independent, won as a republican

The California Voting Rights Act and Vote Dilution/Denial

Federal VRA has been interpreted more narrowly. Thus, it is a lot harder to win under the federal voting rights act California passed its own act in 2002 Allows civil rights groups to bring lawsuits under California law against at-large jurisdiction If they can prove that the at large system is preventing minority groups from getting elected to office, they can win the lawsuit Has resulted in considerable increases in latino elected officials at the local level in CA

What influences public opinion?

Extensive Research on factors that influence opinions: Socioeconomic status More money = more conservative on taxes Less money = more progrssive on taxes Educational attainment Age and gender Lifecycle effects: you will change what issues you care about over time There is a gap between how men and women view the govt and political system Religion More religious = more conservative Immigrant status Ideology Ethnic identity How are you connected to your race, how do you feel about it Context or surroundings How does where you come from affect your view on the political system

Arizona's SB 1070

Extremely important to how politics changed Supporters picked up the rhetoric that immigration was an invasion, which expanded greatly out of arizona Theme was "taking our country back" Large effort to boycott arizona by opponents, tea party started "buy arizona" Made it a state crime for immigrants to be in AZ without carrying required legal residence documents This is even though AZ is unable to enforce anything about legal status, only federal govt can do this Required state law enforcement to attempt to determine a person's immigration status when there was "reasonable suspicion" that the person is undocumented Lots of police are against this because it is difficult to conduct investigations Barred state or local agencies from interfering with this bill Imposed penalties on anyone sheltering, hiring, or transporting undocumented immirgants Made them financially and legally liable Catholic church was strongly against the bill for this reason 70% of people thought this would result in racial profiling 76% thought that european immigrants would not be affected in the same way Beyond SB 1070 Passed state laws around the same time Providing authorization to citizen militia border groups Banned ethnic studies in state high schools Banned teachers with heavy accents

Why do latinos see the federal govt more positively than non-white hispanics?

Federal govt has provided and enforce civil rights protection Historically, without govt, there has been a lot of discrimination and unfair policies. In this way, govt benefits minorities, including latinos More support for community oriented view towards politics, rather than only individually focused Founding fathers had an individualistic view to escape the binds of monarchy in the socioeconomic ladder. Whites still maintain this view Latinos value community policies more. Ex. want others to have healthcare, even when they do. Whites feel that as long as they have healthcare they dont care Latinos face socioeconomic disparities. Thus, they need govt to step in to remedy these inequalities Possible that because whites are not in this position, they do not see the need for govt

Tactics Used by Latinos to Achieve Political Change

Forming Groups Can use lobbying Political activism, protest, social movement Forming interest groups (coalitions) or caucuses Ex. MALDEF, LULAC Join pre existing groups Labor Unions Political parties (Dems/Reps) Understood as "Big Tent" groups because they represent an array of different interests 5% of Republicans are Latinx (90% of GOP is white) 14% of Democrats are Latinx (55% of Dems are white, 24%? black) These are 2012 numbers In 2016, 20% of dems were Latinx, white people are leaving the deomcratic party Could make their own political parties as well have done this in the past (Raza Unida Party, RUP) Ran a governor for texas ( Ramsay Muniz) and gained some influence throughout the southwest Although they did not win, it was politically significant because it showed that there was a significant group who could swing an election if reached out to That being said, the group is not super big so it may not even be significant if there is no opportunity for a swing vote Overall, this strategy represents that perhaps this strategy is not effective, moderates and pragmatists suggest that joining preexisting groups and bolstering these parties would be more effective for furthering their influence Did this because they felt that the other two parties were ignoring Latinx interests For Dems, the party may not have reached out to them because they already had the support, there was no electoral incentive. In the 1990s, Clinton passed an immigration reform bill that increased in-border enforcement of immigration, rather than just at the border. Also increased penalties (no more anchor babies)

The Prop 187 effect: Feelings in 2016

From Pete Wilson to Donald Trump Pete wilson won the 1994 election, and prop 187 received a majority vote Working to deny ALL state benefits to illegal immigrants It was the reaction to 1994 that had a lasting legacy Discussed in this lecture Do we see evidence of this today? In CA 2012, obama won by 23 pts 2016 Hillary won by 30 pts 7 point increase to democrat Democratic votes increased almost a million in 2016 Republican votes decrease 356k in 20166 Op-Ed: Did Latinos actually turn out for Trump? Not really Shows that Latinos actually did not become more republican In AZ Became more democratic In TX Became more democratic All of these places show a similar reactionary effect as California to these policies

Are latinos represented?

Garcia and Sanchez central question: Does the political system address the hispanic agenda? Is there even such a thing as a "Latino Agenda"? Questions to consider: Are latinos able to have equal inputs into the system? (are certain people being stopped from inputing into the politcal system, ex voting rights law) Are latinos able to participate equally given their language barrier, etc. Do the outputs of the political system proportionately reflect latino interests?

Garcia and Sanchez: Who are Latinos? Who are hispanics?

Generally, those with ancestors from origins in which Spanish is a significant/dominant language About two dozen nations in the Western Hemisphere fit this description What countries may not necessarily "fit" this very general description Brazil: Hispanic emphasizes spanish origins. Latino emphasizes latin america. Brazil fits in with Latin America, but is not Spanish origin, it is Portuguese. Yet, these terms are generally interchangeable Haiti: French speaking, other non Spanish speaking. Might still identify and Latino, but are not spanish influenced Belize: not many in the US, but the same idea Portugal: Spain: most Spaniards identify as Latino, but are not from Latin america. They still fit this description, however

Latino Geographic Distribution

Heavily focused in the US southwest, where the border of the US and Mexico meet From 1970-1990 the population is spreading out across the country. By 2014 this trend increases

Edison exit poll: questions about the strategies used to measure the Latino vote in 2016

How did they arrive at 65-29? Thought it unlikely that 29% of the vote for trump was high Thought to be more like 82-18 What precincts did they select? According to the census 48% of latinos live in majority-latino neighborhoods, 22% in neighborhoods 25-50% latino and 30% in places less than 25% latino 80% of their sample comes from a small handful of precincts in each state-which are not representative of latinos For example, in 2014 exit poll, they selected ZERO precinct locations in the Rio Grande Valley, TX, and this is where many hispanics live Barretto article questions this Examines where they collected the data. Perceptions of Candidate Outreach to Latinos 55% thought trump was being hostile 60% thought clinton cared, 31% said doesn't care Compared to 2012, most though romney didn't care and obama cared

Measuring Group Influence

How do we know when different groups of voters are influential or critical to winning coalitions? Make politicians want to pay more attention to them After the fact assessments are not helpful if we want to understand group influence DURING and election !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If we look at key factors about group size and mobilization we can assess the degree of group influence in real time Group size: is it growing or changing? Mobilization: is this group being targeted How do we assess minority group influence in politics? Demographics: group size and growth rate Electoral volatility: Changes in registration rates, partisan preference, turnout compared to prior elections If a group is volatile and moving around, it gives it more influence because partisans will try to take advantage of it Mobilization: media coverage and resources devoted to courting the group If there is not a lot of resources allocated to winning this group, they are likely not as influential Latino group: Size: 66% increase in Latino vote 2000-2008 Volatility: +15 increase in democratic vote share 2004-2008 Mobilization: $8m increase in 2000, $16m in 2004, $32m in 2008

Latino Influence in CA

How has the vote share for democrats increased from 36% in 1980 to 64% in 2016? Latino vote has become increasingly democratic and is becoming larger and larger We think that this is a reaction to the anti-immigration campaign of 1994 Had prop 187 not happened, the latino vote would have still grown, but not as fast and the state would still be a battleground for republicans California electorate: Party Registration 1993 and 2013 Republicans lost 11 points over these years Democrats lost slightly, but mostly held even Independents grow significantly The same thing was happening in LA county in 1992 to 98 among latinos Dems mostly hold even, republican decreases, independents increase Voter Registration in California Latino voter registration grew by 68% Latino population grew by 31% This growth was not driven by linear population growth (voter registration grows double the population growth). Prop 187 influenced this growth

The 2016 General Election

Latino decisions Election Eve Poll Estimated 79% for clinton, 18% for trump Wrapping it up Polling data and real election results confirm latino turnout was up and GOP support was down The lowest vote ever for a presidential candidate Trump anti-immigrant rhetoric was strong driver of participation and vote choice Within the hispanic community, gender gap emerged with latina voters strongly rejecting trump at higher rates than latino men

How could voting be increased among Latinos?

Improved Access to the Voting Process could increase voting "If online voting were available, a person could vote in the privacy of your own home, you could really take the time, there's not a long line, it's not late, you're not tired from working all day" Difficult to find polling places; very busy and hectic day; longer work hours; long lines

How are Latino views evolving?

In 2008, some argued that Latinos were responsible for the passage of Prop 8 in CA, which banned same sex marriage. This was the same year that obama won CA handily On this issue, latinos broke close to 50/50 However, lots of public opinion data since 2008 suggests that latinos have followed the national trend of increasing support for same sex rights These changes were spurred by the SUpreme Court legalization of same sex marriage and Obamas support Was posed as a civil rights issue Today, most latinos support same sex marriage more than the national avg However, views on this are more divided than on other issues

Partisanship and the 2012 Presidential Vote

Latino electorate was 78% for obama Latino Republicans voted 44% for obama Latino democrats voted 97% for Obama This is unusual that so many Latino Rep defected and voted for Obama, should be more firmly in support for Romney but Prop 187 influenced them to do otherwise. Romney's affiliation with anti-immigration deterred latino voters

The 2008 General Election

Increased interest among latino voters Most important issues Economy A lot of people associated the recession with GWB, which hurt McCain in his race against obama Iraq war Costly, bad foreign policy Immigration Even though obama was headed for a clear victory in 2008, many people felt that racism was still at play in attitudes and vote choice UC Irvine Prof. Michael Tesler has proven that negative racial attitudes were strongly associated with views toward obama Was the same at play among latino voters? Not really, race was not as associated with vote choice for latino voters Racial attitudes became more predictive of partisanship than the party you state post obama

Moving Public Opinion to Political Participation

Individual versus Group Participation The traditional view of voting is that doing so was an individual, solitary activity However, no single person is likely to change the entire outcome of an election. The more you realize this, the less likely you are to vote This makes us begin to think that, perhaps, voting is not as individualistic as previously thought But many people in the latino community often think about the importance of participation as a group or community activity Solidarity or athnic attachment creates an incentive to participate Collective organizing is not at all unique to Latinos Labor unions are a class example of group based identity in politics Today, AARP is one of the largest and most influential interest groups in Washington DC They have convinced other retired people that they have a collective interest Able to use this group to leverage against politicians it is proposed that perhaps the sense of group attachment is more inherent and stronger among latinos (and African Americans) As a means of combating discrimination

Latino Ideology and Policy Attitudes

Latino America: Chapter 3 Many valid reasons why some argue latinos have conservative values However, latinos tend to vote democrat What are the underlying views towards govt? Many Valid Reasons why some argue Latinos have conservative values The role of the Catholic Church in Latin AMerica, high church attendance High levels of Catholic schooling both in the US and home countries Emphasis on "traditional" family values Same sex rights, prayer in school, etc Strong belief in self-reliance Happens to be the case that everyone has a belief in self reliance High rates of self employment, small business

Lecture 15 News

Latino Community Foundation (LCF) statewide CA survey of CA latinos found that 74% plan to vote in the March 2020 primary election (via LCF) https://latinocf.org/press-poll-latinos-2020-primary/ Bernie is at the top 31%, Biden 22%, Warren 11%, Castro 9%, Harris 8% People are concerned about racism, white supremacy Priotities USA launches anti-trump ads in florida (miami herald) https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article237322954.html This suggests that latinos have high influence, considering they are already being catered to Trump administration wants to raise fees associated with citizenship and DACA by 83% (NBC Latino) https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/trump-admin-wants-raise-costs-become-u-s-citizen-83-n1082286

Latino Voter Mobilization in 2008

Latino Turnout in 2008 primaries Overall participation in democratic caucuses was about 33% for non latinos nad 18% for latinos Because a lot of the latinos were working on the Saturday it was held Opened caucus sites on the strip near where they worked, which improved the latino turnout to the caucus to 38% While Obama won the endorsement of the union leadership in nevada, clinton won the vast majority of latino union members This cross pressure created more engagement In 2008 primary, voter turnout was much higher in latino counties

Latino Demographics

Latinos continue to face different resource deficits Education Latinos have relatively less education than other groups Foreign born latinos have lower educational achievement than US born Because latinos have lower educational achievement, they have lower level jobs, thus lower level political participation, less political power Latinos have higher dropout rates Could be caused by the necessity to work to support the family Were not provided enough resources to further their education Language resources, when unavailable, can cause impediments Income Latinos have a relatively low income, compared to other groups Foreign born latinos have lower income than US born latinos Homeownership Whites maintain the highest level of home ownership, relative to other groups Could be because some immigrants to not intend to stay in the country/area Could be caused by regulations, such as redlining and the GI bill, which skewed the housing system in white's favor Upward mobility continues across generations Chart on slide shows progression Military service increases across generations Could be because they use this to pay for education Assimilate more into american culture More high school graduation across generations Higher income More home ownership Become more English fluent, less Spanish fluent across generations English fluency affects graduation People are hesitant to teach Spanish to increase assimilation, allow for higher mobility Harder for kids to speak Spanish because everyone else speaks English, which discourages it Across generations, the possibility of mixed race couples increases and kids may not be able to learn Spanish as easily if only one parent speaks the language

Latino Ideology and Policy Attitudes

Latinos have a diversity of experiences and backgrounds which leads to the diverse ideologies they hold Considering the holistically, we can find a pattern Can value individualism, but think that govt should step in when circumstances become unfavorable However, when it comes to applying their ideology to politics in america, Latinos tend to be less conservative Compared to white Americans, Latinos vote for candidates based on their ideology less effectively On policy issues, Latinos tend to support a role for the Federal Govt, and do not see an obvious place for religion inside politics

The Voter Turnout Gap

Latinos have lower voter turnout than most other racial groups Latinos are about 13% less likely to vote than on-hispanic whites Asians 14% less African American 0.7% less

California Latino Voters Reason for voting in 2012 election

Latinos remain highly attuned to community interests when making vote choices 12% said they voted to support reps 38% said they voted to support dems 39% said they voted to support their community Explaining why this is happening Many prior research studies have hypothesized that a hostile environment resulted in an increased in-group attachment and politicized group consciousness People mobilize in support of their group in order to support their community in response to hostility New research by Angie Gutierrez (UCLA) has now isolated this so-called prop 187 effect She finds that perceptions of discrimination significantly increased politicized group consciousness in the mid 1990s Prop 187 was like an eye opening event Made Latinos feel they had to work together to support the community 1994-1998 period is the only period that perceived discrimination is statistically correlated to feelings of group consciousness

Assessing Voter Turnout in 2012

Latinos who were more educated voted at higher rates The way you viewed the candidates on immigration influenced voter turnout Thinking about the 2012 campaign, would you say Obama truly cares about the Latino community, that he doesn't acre too much about latinos, or that he was hostile? As your support for DACA goes up, the percent of people that think obama truly cares increases (82% feel this among DACA supporters) After the DACA announcement, the voters viewed candidates through the lens of immigration What happened and when? Arizona SB 1070, Sharon Angle headline 2010 Latino media, advocacy groups, protests. A lot of coverage Harry Reid promotes the DREAM act vote in Sept 2010 Obama DOJ files suit against AZ SB 1070 Obama prosecutorial discretion in deportation As CBP and ICE are interacting with undocumented, they should use discretion and deprioritize people who were not violent criminals. This was just a suggestion however and required progressive judges and local officials to actually dismiss these cases Didn't get very far, made Obama campaign think they could do more Obama Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Romney advocates "self-deport" and pro-SB 1070 Obama digs his heels in on a pro-immigration campaign platform

Are Latinx strong or weak partisans?

Latinx predominantly identify as democrats, but that does not necessarily mean they are strong partisans Many lean democrats, are weak democrats, or are independent Few are strong partisans, more are weak or independent Why could this be? Latinx are more likely to identify with traditional moral values, but they also have vested interest in immigration, Democratic supported issues Latinx are cross pressured^ It is beneficial to play the swing voting role so that the vote is not captured, making parties more likely to fight for my vote and cater to the group interest In many contexts, latinos are not pivotal and thus this may not be a great strategy

Mobilizing the Latino Vote

Lessons from California: Latino America Chapter 9 Immigration should not be thought of as the only issue Latinos care about However, it can be a critical threshold issue from which latino voters evaluate candidates and parties to indicate where their priorities lie In California, efforts to run on an anti-immigrant campaign issue backfired on the Republican party In 1994, it worked. The Republican got elected and prop 187 was passed This was the beginning of the end of CA republican party

Vote Dilution

Make votes less of importance At-large electoral systems To win, you have to have 51% of the vote to elect someone, making it hard for minority groups to affect change As opposed to having districts, which can cater better to specific interests Candidate slating In order to win, you must run with running mates If you didn't get on a popular slate, you couldn't win Gerrymandering In district systems, the districts are drawn to ensure that the latino population doesn't go past the point of them being a majority How districts are apportioned can dilute the vote and put you in a district that makes your vote irrelevant Ex. latinos in Anaheim. Not one out of 7 city council members were latino

Learning from the Reid playbook in 2012(Argue that Obama learned from Reid's campaign how to gain latino support through pro-immigration)

Messina brings Reid's hispanic media director to Chicago for meeting and advice (Jose Parra) Actually take action on pro-immigration, rather than make speeches Parra instructed to meet with Hispanic Obama hispanic media director (Domenzain) Reid pushes Obama to announce DACA policy Parra to head DNC hispanic media in 2012 Obama was literally taking Reid's team, taking their advice, and sometimes being pushed my them to do certain things, like sign DACA Gabriela Domenzain, OFA Dir. hispanic Media "I know that Obama for America leaders saw the Reid and Bennett races as races where latinos made a big diference and they thought, "OK latinos Humberto Sanchez, Roll Call "The democratic senators (reid and bennett) pioneering efforts in reaching out to Latin voters in their 2010 re-election races..."

Partisan Identification by Latinx Subgroups

Mexican Mostly democrats, a sizeable amount of independents Puerto Rican More democratic than Mexican Americans, are stronger Democrats because they are US citizens and have been socialized as US citizens from birth, whereas in other cases political socialization could have occurred abroad which makes it more difficult to determine what party you identify with Cuban More Republican, likely because the first wave of migrants from Cuba had a relatively high socioeconomic status after fleeing the communist regime Also likely because they may identify as "good" immigrants because they immigrated legally as asylum seekers Also because of their anti-communist values, and seeing as the Reps label Democrats as socialists they may be turned off South/Central American Identify similarly to Mexican americans, mostly Democratic or Independent In respect to white people, all of these groups are less likely to identify as Republican In respect to black people, Latinos are less likely to identify as democrat than black people, who are more democratic

Who is working on voter turnout?

Political parties- much more now than ever focus on latinos Latino civic and community groups NALEO Work on naturalization and turnout more, but have done work with registration Unidos (National Council of La Raza) Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project Mi Familia Vota Voto Latino

Turning to Real Election Data for Answers About the Latino Vote in 2016

Most precincts in texas show overwhelming support for Clinton Across more than 4300 precincts, data shows 80-20 support for clinton Across CA precincts, latino vote for clinton was over 80% and trump less than 15% Where did trump gain in FL? Clinton gained lots of votes for obama 2012 in counties with large latino populations Trump gained small, but consistently +5% over romney 2012 in counties with large white populations Story became that it wasnt deficits in latino vote, Community solidarity and the plurality reason for latino turnout High percentage said they turned out to support their community Perceptions of candidates and parties GOP 29% say truly cares, 36 said didnt care much, 30% said hostile Shows that clinton was getting consistent support while trump was underperforming expectations

Obama and Latinos in the Early 2012 Campaign

NY times: While Seeking Support, Obama Faces a Frustrated Hispanic Electorate Obama was losing support over his deportations Promised to overhaul immigration system and give legal status to illegal immigrants. Many Latinos (54%) say Obama broke a promise by not pushing hard enough for these reforms 53% said that they were less excited about Obama now than earlier After the election, headlines changed Latino voters were said to be pivotal to his reelection What explains this dramatic turnaround? DACA executive increases his support among latinos Where were latinos contacted to turnout? States that were going to be competitive were contacted more heavily National: Candidate Latino Outreach Most people thought romney doesn't care Most (66%) thought that obama truly cared National: Deferred Action Policy Impact Did deferred action policy make you feel more or less enthusiastic 58% were made more enthusiastic Romney's immigration policies made 57% of people less enthusiastic Immigration causes GOP to leave votes on the table If GOP considered taking on comprehensive immigration reform, 31% said that they would be more likely to consider voting GOP Ties to undocumented immigrants Considering all your family and people you know, do you know someone who is an undocumented immigrant? 60% said yes, they do By showing this, you are able to convince people that disperaging undocumented people will turn off people who can vote, dispite conventional wisdom that they could be attacked without voting reprocussions 2012 Lessons Learned Latino voters cared about many issues in 2012: Economy, healthcare, immigration were top 3 However, immigration became the issue that most clearly divided the candidates This helped latinos decide which candidates fitted them It is advised that people who have a clear, distinct position on issues like this heavily campaign on it Immigration issues were also seen as highly personal and symbolic to many latino families If you had positive/negative views about immigration, it tells latinos what they think of their communities Learning from harry reid and focusing on the immigration issue greatly helped obama in 2012

California Latino Voter Perceptions: Candidates Attitudes about Latinos in 2012 Pres Election

Nationally, latinos felt obama cared more about the latino community Though romney doesn't care, 21% thought he was hostile

News Items Lecture 2

Nbcnews: Iowa voter ID law struck down by Fed Court (NBC) which affects how people get absentee ballots, LULAC joined in the lawsuit Look into it to see how LULAC was involved https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/latino-group-claims-victory-ruling-striking-part-iowa-voter-id-n1061006 Washington Post: DACA going to SUpreme Court and DREAMer advocates enlisting conservative (Theodore Olson, W Solicitor General) to help win their fight. He is going to argue, in part, in favor of DACA Why are they choosing him? Idea is that by choosing a conservative, he will appeal to the 5 coinservative court justices in support of DACA Argument taking place on Nov. 12, will update later in the class https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/groups-representing-dreamers-pick-conservative-olson-for-supreme-court-battle/2019/09/26/b9779cde-e073-11e9-be96-6adb81821e90_story.html LA Times: Public charge rule- denies green cards to legal immigrants who use public benefits https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-09-02/trump-children-benefits-public-charge-rule

GOTV (get out the vote)

New research on voter mobilization attempts to identify what specific factors are associated with turnout and vote choice Often rely on election surveys or field experiments Surveys attempt to use self-reported opinions and attitudes of voters to associate with vote choice Field experiments follow a randomized treatment- Example of Phone mobilization study Person makes calls, randomly select some voters to identify and call them. Do not contact other voters not chosen Analyze the people that were contacted after the election to determine whether or not the contact prompted them to vote Ramirez: Segmented Mobilization Studied a non-partisan GOTV by NALEO Evaluates voter turnout in LA county Telephone canvassing to encourage voting Talked about a message of ethnic solidarity to encourage people to vote Phone banking increases voter turnout but... Only among the pre-1994 cohort Post 1994 cohort were already more likely to vote because of the Prop 187 effect Nuno - Messenger Matters This study looks at partisan outreach and vote choice Who does the mobilizing matters (the person making calls or going door to door) Partisan organization is not enough, has to be coethnic or from the community Latino dems are more likely to vote Democrat with any type of outreach, regardless of the race of the contacter Latino republicans are only responsive to co-ethnics Non latinos can actually drive down the GOP vote This could be because white contacters cause suspicion and distrust, whereas with latino contacters latinos are more at ease White republican script was not tailored to the audience, kept their same arguments that were often anti-immigrant Michelson-Door to door canvass Instead of telephone outreach, this study used a randomized "field" experiment where people went door to door in central california Would communicate three things: nothing (control group), civic duty, and ethnic solidarity. Would rotate houses and give one per house Messages included civic duty and ethnic solidarity Compared to control group, the treatment groups demonstrated higher rates of turnout First evidence that latino voter turnout could be increased Especially strong among latino democrats All related to the prop 187 effect Latino democrats were very receptive to ethnic solidarity message Common themes in GOTV Latino voters are just like any other voter-contact, mobilization, outreach works Themes of community, ethnic pride, solidarity seem to resonate well and can mobilize latino voters Different modes of contact have different effects Phone, mailers, door-to-door, email, text In person seems to be the most effective Bottom line is GOTV works with latinos, but much more is needed to close participation gap

Cycle of Undermobilization

Newly naturalized citizens and new adults Are first time voters with no vote history Parties do not target less likely voters (those w/o vote history) Latinos turn out at lower rates as a result of not being contacted Thus, the parties do not target them, and herein lies the cycle

Who is working on increasing voter registration?

Not political parties, they are concerned on winning among the registered population For the first time in 2018, they are actually making a voter registration effort Latino civic and community groups do NALEO Work on naturalization and turnout more, but have done work with registration Unidos (National Council of La Raza) Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project Mi Familia Vota Voto Latino

Obama and Latinos in 2008 General Election

Obama wins primary Recall: latinos were expected to not support obama because he was black Mayors of African American cities with high latino populations reflect that perhaps this was not true, latinos could support these candidates. Often, they would win over 70% of the latino vote Maxine Waters had the highest ratings among the latino caucuses in LA In 2000 when obama ran for US house in illinois, he won more latino votes than black votes In 2004, when he ran for US senate, he won more latino votes in the primary than one of his opponents, who was latino In 2008, Obama won a majority of the latino vote in 6 of the primary elections This all reflects that there is no evidence that latinos will vote against black candidates

Partisan Identification Trends

Partisan identification, in either direction, increases.. With generation status (longer they are here, the more partisan identification) Immigration status (more likely to identify if they are citizens) Partisan identification is the result of two different factors, called Push-Pull factors Push factors seem to send them to the democratic party Ex. immigration issues push them to the Democratic party Ex. prop 187 pushed Latinx in CA to the democratic party Pull factors are those which makes you want to identify with the party Ex. Dems offer more social services, which pulls to the party Ex. Dems are more DACA friendly Ex. Dems offer voting rights protections, such as having voting materials in different languages Ex. Republicans Political Ideology (Liberal vs Conservative) Latinx are pretty similar to white people in terms of percent of ideology We see that Latinx conservatives are still more likely to vote Democrat that white conservatives, less than black conservatives The notion of ideological sorting does not fit as well to non-white people in the US (liberal=dem, conservative=rep)

Lecture 6: News

Pew Research projects that HIspanics will be the largest minority group in the 2020 electorate (13%) https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/psdt_2020electorate-00/ This is eligible voting population This could suggest that more attention needs to be paid to the latino electorate Gavin Newsom signed into law AB32, which will bar CA from renewing contracts with private prison or detention centers, and no private prisons by 2028 (Buzzfeed) https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/sarahgardiner/a-victory-in-the-fight-against-immigration-detention ??? Private businesses were thought to operate more efficiently However, they want to make a profit so they reduce costs Prompts a philosophical debate over what is the role of the state in this process. Should they be giving money to people to operate prisons who want to make money? Some bills require a certain amount of people to be there, prevent early release etc as a result Federal Judges in NY, WA, and CA blocked trump's policy of the Public Charge Rule from taking effect (NBC) https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-judge-blocks-trump-public-charge-rule-immigrants-receiving-public-n1065191 Public charge rule: legal immigrants can be denied citizenship if they are using public services Doesn't provide clear regulations, just said that if they deem you a public charge, you can be blocked This blocking of the rule will likely last a while, likely until the next supreme court session

Why are Latinos under mobilized?

Political parties like to focus on "likely voters" These are people who are dependable, based on vote history Parties look at vote history to see if you are a good target for voter mobilization Latinos have the most new voters and first time voters, meaning they have no vote history and thus no proof that they are likely Historically, latinos have been left out of the political process Both because of the above and because there are not people on the campaign saying to do so This creates the Cycle of Undermobilization Part of what explains the cycle of under mobilization is the motivation of voting Main motivation to vote in the 2012 election was 39% to support the democrats 15% to support the republican 36% to support the latino community This is common, latinos are frequently drawn in to the political system in an attempt to support their community Turning Voters into Non Voters Lower levels of Political Efficacy are common among non voters "Frustration... The people down here, nothing changes for them. If anything, it is getting worse" "The way the system works, I don't think our vote counts that much... I really got turned off by a lot of things I saw when we were getting involved in the elections" Lower levels of political information are also common barriers "Mostly because I don't pay enough attention, and I don't want to go in there with my eyes closed, filling in dots for people I don't know anything about"

Lecture 5 News

President Trump calls on Supreme Court to strike down DACA, says a deal is possible https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/465011-trump-calls-on-supreme-court-to-strike-down-daca-says-deal-possible CA can register to vote at any election voting center in person, LA Times https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-08/californians-register-to-vote-any-polling-place-2020-new-law Will open two weeks before the election, can vote or register Weekend before for the rest Anyone can vote at these Want people to be able to vote where is the most convenient for them Latinos have historically had lower voting turnout and registration, hope that it will increase participation across the board Nevada Democratic party just started latino outreach movement. 120% increase in NV from 2014-2018; starting outreach 1 year before the election (NBC) https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/democrats-start-nevada-caucus-training-spanish-build-latino-2020-turnout-n1060221 ????

Economic Issues vs Moral Issues

Provided two scenarios: is politics more about economic issues or moral issues? Helps to identify what the driving issues of the political system are for latinos Latinos believe that economic issues are more important in politics What they examined is whether or not the religious experience bleeds over into the political space? If not, why? Also asked what the role of religion should be in politics Majority believe that religious leaders should not discuss politics Majority believe that politicians should not discuss religiosity either What they deduced is that despite religiousness, their religion was a private matter and they did not think that these things should be incorporated on a govt level. Actually wanted a separation between these two aspects of their lives

Immigration as a key issue in 2018

Rescinded DACA->Trump promised a fix->supported state AG lawsuit against DACA->withdrew from compromise legislation Targeted Central American refugees, migrants, asylum seekers-- animals comment, called these people coming here animals Rescinded TPS (temporary protective status) from people who had it for years. Usually, these people were here seeking asylum Sessions implemented a zero-tolerance border policy, resulted in child separations. This separation was to be a deterrent Closed the border down twice, threatened full closure Shut down the govt over the border wall deal Diverted FEMA $ and military $ to border wall construction Congress passed a law saying that this cannot be done, trump used his veto for this Inhumane conditions at the border and child detentions These are the things that made 2018 different from 2016. Actual policy was happening instead of offensive campaigning Immigration policy opinions: Dream Act In a survey of people who lived in toss up districts, an overwhelming majority supported the dream act Child separation policy anger: people were overwhelmingly angry about this issue in competitive districts Importance of 2018 relative to 2014 People overwhelmingly saw 2018 as more important election to vote in 2014 was low turnout and issues weren't super salient Voters overwhelmingly supported a DACA fix Thought the GOP should have compromised with the democrats to pass this legislation

The latinx gender gap in 2016

There was a large gender gap in the latino vote There was about a 12 point gap Jessica Lavariega Monforti Examines the intersection of gender and national orgiin "Latinas responded to the rhetoric around identity--the targeting of gender and ethnicity (and their intersection) by candidates, political parties, and the media--- in a different..." "From a policy standpoint, latina women, because of their experiences of marginalization..." Women were strongly democratic, men were as well but drifting toward independent or non-identified

The Prop 187 Effect

Search Results Featured snippet from the web California Proposition 187 (also known as the Save Our State (SOS) initiative) was a 1994 ballot initiative to establish a state-run citizenship screening system and prohibit illegal immigrants from using non-emergency health care, public education, and other services in the State of California Before pete wilson re-election and Prop 187, California was a very competitive state for GOP. Possibly even leaning republican Extensive research published in academic journals and books, along with extensive polling demonstrates 1994 changed CA forever Now nationally, the GOP faces a similar cross-road as they did in CA 1994 Trump was elected on a similar anti-immigrant campaign. Now have to consider the aftermath and how it reflects on the republican party Pete Wilson vs George W. Bush When Wilson was campaigning for re-election on Prop 187, in Texas Bush defeated incumbent Democrat to become the first modern republican Bush conducted outreach to latino voters and won with about 40% of the Latino vote in 1998 Had a lot of personal connections with Latinos Had a positive, pro immigrant inclusion message As President, Bush endorsed immigration reform and gave the first weekly radio address in spanish The bill was progressive and pretty inclusive This was about a week before 9/11, which forced him to become more strict on immigration Texas used to be immigrant friendly because of Bush California then... 1992-1994 California GOP governor 9/10 GOP pres wins 48-88 1 R/1D in Senate 50% R/50% Dem in US house 43% rep/53% D in CA senate 2017-2018 All eight exec offices dem Both US senate seats are dems The last two senate elections have not even featured a republican California congressional delegation 26 %republican 74% democrat State assembly is 69% democrat State senate 67% democrat This constitutes a supermajority in the state, making them about to pass almost any legislation Pete Wilson legacy after 20 years Percent who say they are concerned that pete wilson was meg whitman's campaign co-chair in 2010 election Overwhelmingly people were concerned after his role in prop 187 As a result of Prop 187 and pete wilson reputation as anti immigrant, the CA gop has no future in statewide politics

The Federal Voting Rights Act (how does it help vote denial/dilution issues)

Section 2 provides venue for plaintiffs to bring lawsuits against jurisdictions if their voting rights are being denied or diluted Section 5 provided Federal Govt, US DOJ oversight of suspect jurisdictions with history of vote denial In 2013, SCOTUS struck down Section 4b formula of VRA which regulated Section 5 in Shelby v Holder

2014 case study: colorado senate

Senator mark Udall lost colorado senate race by 39,000 votes out of 2,041,020 cast in 2014 President Obama won Colorado in 2012 by about 140,000 votes Udall was a consistent supporter of comprehensive immigration reform and openly opposed the president's delay of executive action Udall resisted latino specific outreach and ran only one spanish-language message on veterans issues Worried that his opponent was going to get support on his anti-immigrantion stance Asked: as far as you know, what is Senate Candidates position on immigration reform 48% dont know the stance of the senator (Udall) 41% don't know the stance of opponent (gardner) Made his stance murky, 21% thought he supported CIR There was a 9 point drop in people who could recall seeing a latino targeted ad from dems Was a 10 point drop in participation

Latinos and the 2012 Election

Similar to 2010, many latinos were not enthusiastic 10 months before the 2012 presidential Economy slow to recover and deportations continued Candidate positioning on immigration ultimately created a clear and distinct threshold for Latinos, upon which they could evaluate candidates Thought the economy was going to be more important Romney supported SB 1070 and suggested his famous "self-deport" policy Would make conditions in america so bad that people would self deport Obama ran on his executive order DACA 2012 as a Watershed Moment Latino net contribution to Obama a 5.4% margin Net popular vote margin is Obama +2.8% (he won by 2.8 pts) This shows that the Latino electorate accounted for the vote margin For the first time in US history, Latino vote can plausibly claim to be nationally decisive If latinos had split their vote evenly, Obama loses Popular Vote. thus, no net contribution In fact, if romney hits 35-40% of latinos, Obama loses popular vote Modeling Latino Influence in 2012 Using an updated model of latino influence, 7 states are identified where latinos could be pivotal to the presidential outcome VA, NC, OH, NV, CO, FL, PN Obama got approx 75% of latino vote CO, FL, NM, NV proven to be driven by latino votes for obama

Central Americans in the US

The historical context They mostly focused on the experience (historical and contextual) of Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Cuban origin communities Central Americans are a fast growing segment of the population and constitute nearly 10% of all latinos Latino Population by Regional Ancestry Central Americans are 10%, could be rising to the point where they are the 2nd most populous latino group Potentially omre the puerto ricans Mexicans still largest by far 62% Of central americans, salvadoran are quite populous California has the largest central american population Racialization of Central Americans Virginia Republican uses Salvadoran gang MS-13, says they were invading Virginia as a fear mongering tactic. Took strong anti-immigration stance to encourage support. Large central american population here, felt attacked Used pictures of gang members that were in El Salvador, they were not anywhere in Virginia. This effectively changed the experience for regular Salvadorans in Virginia This person lost Trump won using similar tactics, demonized mexicans. This candidate simply used a different group "We have people coming into the country... These aren't people, these are animals" -Trump in conference with CA sheriffs When we came, the truth is it was a harrowing experience... as if we are not human beings" Shows a juxtaposition of how the Pres labels people as animals and their treatment

Latino Vote 1996-2014

There is a steady increase in voting participation, especially in presidential years. In midterm years, there is growth but not as much. In 2014, there was little to no increase in turnout In 2018, there was a 5 million increase, which is HUGE Midterm turnout rate among registered 2014 was down from 2012 Nationally, among all voters, participation was down. Shows they were less enthusiastic People were arguing that this was because Both parties faced an image problem: nobody felt that the parties were doing a good job of addressing these issues or encouraging voting

Latinos and the 2016 Democratic Primaries

The two main democratic candidates had support among latino voters In debates, they specifically campaigned in favor of immigration reform and engaged directly with latino voters As the democratic nominee moves to the general election, will they continue to support these issues or will they back away in attempts to appeal to conservatives and independent? Clinton maintained her position in the general election

Latino Voter Reaction: GOP Statements on Immigrants and Immigration in 2014

There was a series of comments made by lawmakers after Boehner's "Principles Immigration Reform" "There is a surefire way to create jobs now for American citizens: evict all illegal aliens from america" "We could also electrify this wire with the kind of current..." All of these quotes made latinos feel less favorably about the republican party as a whole. 66% said that these quotes, made by individuals, were held by many republicans in congress

The Economy and Immigration in 2012

Top issues in 2012 For latino voters nationally, economy was seen as very important and immigration was not Economy was improving, but still was not doing great On the issue of the economy, it is difficult to distinguish the differences between candidate stances on this issue, considering they both want the economy to improve. On the immigration issue, there is a clear distinction between candidates that causes people to react stronger and can serve as symbolic A welcoming message on immigration boosts support, while a negative message decreases support

Garcia and Sanchez: Are Latinos Incorporated?

Traditional understanding of race, ethnicity, immigration does not apply to latinos European assimilation model: people can eventually assimilate and become part of the American culture Oppressed racial group model Based on slavery and oppression, prevented african americans from assimilating Latinos fit neither. Arent allowed to assimilate, yet have not faced the same amount of racial oppression as African Americans Latino history and presence in the US is complex Pre-date British settlements in Florida and New Mexico. (NM had a complex govt system before the establishment of Jamestown) Mexican American war in 1848, southwest was Mexican land, was given to the US. people lost their land, US gave away land to settlers Newer migration over the last 30 years Haven't had net positive immigration in about 8 years

Lecture 9 News

Trump 2020 campaign focusing on Latinx voter outreach in non-traditional areas (NBC Latino) https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/trump-2020-targeting-latino-voters-nontraditional-areas-n1070446 Targeting Florida (high cuban population, Cubans are more republican) Rust belt as well Maryland State legislative caucus won't require members to choose between black or hispanic caucus (WaPo) https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/maryland-legislative-black-caucus-will-not-adopt-bylaws-that-would-make-members-choose-between-black-latino-groups/2019/10/21/b2e17214-f41e-11e9-8cf0-4cc99f74d127_story.html Congressional hispanic caucus criticized Trump admin over asylum seekers who are sleeping outside port of entry in Brownsville, TX https://www.newsweek.com/hundreds-migrant-families-living-streets-port-entry-because-its-too-dangerous-leave-area-1464431 Remain in mexico policy says that if you are seeking asylum, you come into the US without papers and declare that you are seeking asylum. You are then interviewed to determine the legitimacy of this claim Just changed this to Remain in Mexico policy. Under this, they can come, but they have to stay in Mexico until later on when they are approved after their credible fear interview Newer policy is that they are picking people and sending them back to el salvador, despite the safety concerns Not many people are actually getting credible fear interviews

Lecture 3 News

Trump Administrations Migration Protection Protocol is putting migrants in danger Sending back people from america to cartel controlled region, which puts them in immediate danger bc they are effectively a target The New Yorker- Author Blitzer https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/how-the-us-asylum-system-is-keeping-migrants-at-risk-in-mexico Migrant Protection Protocol is supposed to be a deterrant from illegal immigration First enacted under Pena Nieto, but New pres does not want to stir up issues by combating this California cities just signed a law that allowed the state to open their own banks https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article235720332.html This is beneficial to the Latino community because it will give them access to more financial institutions, which they had limited access to on the federal level 2008 crisis latinos lost 66% of their wealth compared to non-hispanic whites, who lost only 13%; public banks give more fair interest rate loans Trump admin is to broadly expand DNA testing on migrants in custody Nbc news DNA would be put into CODIS, the criminal database https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-admin-broadly-expand-dna-collection-migrants-custody-n1061471

Lecture 16 News

Trump admin immigration jails overcrowded, and deportations are now down (Washington Post) https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/the-trump-administrations-immigration-jails-are-packed-but-deportations-are-lower-than-in-obama-era/2019/11/17/27ad0e44-f057-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html Trump's ideas were much louder, more visibility than Obamas, but his total removals are lower than Obama. That being said, jails are up. This has to do with the longer term detention. Obama admin usually released people into the community and setting court dates Telemundo poll indicates that 30% of Latinx voters are still undecided about 2020 election candidates, top choices Sanders, Biden, Warren (NBC) Polled CA, TX, NV because they are the earliest primaries https://www.nbcumv.com/news/new-telemundo-station-group-latino-voter-opinion-polls CA Democratic convention, Univision hosted Presidential forum at Long Beach Convention Center on Friday. Saturday, Latino forum at Cal State LA

Lecture 10 News

US bans all flights to Cuba, outside of Havana in latest crackdown (NBC) https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/u-s-bans-all-flights-cuba-outside-havana-latest-crackdown-n1072306 We were not allowing flights to Cuba because of the economic embargo because they were communist, through Cold War. Bay of Pigs event and nuclear tension w/russia over cuba causes conflict. After the cold war, we still hated cuba despite friendly relations with russia Obama reversed this tension and began opening economic contact Trump has been rolling these policies back and restricting how much money can be sent back there Question will be whether or not this is related to the mobilization of the Cuban vote Puerto Ricans boosting voter mobilization in florida, growing in size equal to Cuban Americans (NBC) https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/puerto-ricans-want-boost-their-political-voice-florida-can-help-n1068696 This could change the story about latino population in florida PR population has increased in Florida because of the hurricanes, slow economy recovery, causing high paced migration to US Latina Dem running for GOP held district in Texas 24 against 7 other democrats, Dallas (The Hill) https://thehill.com/latino/467717-hispanic-caucus-all-in-with-latina-in-crowded-texas-primary

Immigration Reform in 2013-2014

US senate takes up a comprehesive immirgatoin reform bill in 2013 Led by the "gang of 8" with 4 dems and 4 reps Bennett, durban, menendez, schumer Rubio, McCain, Graham, Flake Passed committee in may 2013 Passed the senate by vote of 68-32 on june 27, 2013 Border security, visa reform, e-verify, path to citizenship Sent to the house of reps for consideration From senate to house From July 2013-dec 2013 there is not action in the House Speaker john boehner convened 3-day retreat to discuss House position on immigration reform Tea party forces "majority of majority" rule to ensure that something they didn't like could never go to the House floor Jan 30 unveil House Principles of Immiration Reform, which did allow for a pathway to "legalization", but emphasized border security first Would gain legal status and then could apply for citizenship More border security that senate version Republican majority of the house, and strong presence of the Tea party caucus, and now the freedom caucus Feb 6, boehner declares republicans don't trust obama and can't work with him on comprehensive immirgation reform in 2014, withdraw their proposal and say it wont move forward. Then passed these bills that never became law Passed bill to end DACA Passed 694 million dollars for border security Voted to streamline deportation of Central American minors Passed a bill to block DAPA or future executive orders Nothing was passed, hence why we don't have CIR today CIR failure puts GOP at further risk "If CIR does not pass, which party will be to blame" 69% said republican 13% said democrat 11% both equally (goes against republican narrative) Future GOP vote if CIR is blocked 50% less likely to vote GOP 38% no impact View of republican party if House Blocks Immigration Reform From Congress to the Executive Branch Failed immigration reform in Congress put the pressure back on the executive branch to act Obama administration outlined a plan to provide temporary legal status to about 4 million people This was bold and got lots of latino support. Was a step in the right direction Immigrant advocacy groups pressured White House to act, but many conservative and moderate Democrats disagreed with DAPA Executive Action: Stop Deporting Parents Extending DACA provisions to other groups was popular among latinos Concern over deportations remain Latino voters perceived the obama administration as deporting too many immigrants without cause If President Obama did not sign any executive orders or make change to immigration, people overwhelmingly said that they would feel less enthusiastic about voting and supporting democrats

Are latinos conservative?

Views regarding whether minorities should be self reliant Latinos agree that the people can get ahead by working hard and not relying on govt assistance The latino vote shows that they go Dem, increasing since 2004 Why have republicans had a hard time winning over Latinos? Is this changing over time? Does party affiliation change over generations? (i.e. is it just immigrants who vote democrat?) The underlying question of all of this: How do Latinos view the role of government? Selected Policy Liberalism of Latinos and Non-HIspanic Whites Shows latinos are more liberal than whites Views Regarding Govt Action to Solve Problems by Race Majority of Latinos want the govt to get involved, whites disagree Attitudes Regarding Size of Govt Growth by Race Latinos support more govt, whites support less Preferences for FRee Market vs Govt Solutions by Race Latinos feel we need govt, whites do to, but latinos moreso In short, no. They value a larger, more involved government

2018 Election Day Data

Vote for US house in 2018 Minority and immigrant voters drove the Blue Wave in the US house. White vote was decidedly less republican, but still republican majority A referendum on Donald Trump Reactions to donald trump were a driving factor for voters in 2018 Attacks are seen as divisive Trump and republicans were using toxic rhetoric to try to divide people Access to affordable healthcare Voters wanted to expand access to healthcare This was the big issue for dems Was an issue that Democratic party had an advantage in No "net gain" from attacking immigrants In 2016, trump mobilized additional voters through his attacks on immigrants, especially in rural areas People in swing districts thought that the more welcoming message on immigration was more accurate (55-42) Even among white voters, there were equal on both Minorities drove this support for immigrants Self Mobilization A majority of people took it upon themselves to mobilize and encourage others to do so as well Reported CAmpaign COntact 53% of Latinos were contacted Overall, more communities of color were contacted than whites A lot of investment in mobilization A record breaking latino vote in 2018 1998 4 million votes 02 4.7 million 06 5.6 million 2010 6.6 million (we covered this, Reid v Engel, SB 1070) 2014 6.7 million (low turnout election, people were not mobilized) 2018 11.6 million (huge turnout, 4.92 million vote increase. Never been an increase at that level in any midterm or even presidential election) This was practically equivalent to presidential year turnout In CA, latino growth was the largest (+1.5 million) Hispanic voter influence in US house races By increasing turnout in certain states, latinos were able to swing votes in certain places

Lecture 4 News

Washington Post. Undocumented man killed by cops after entering the wrong home. Widow is suing. Bring into play the 4th and 14th amendments. Argue that because he was undocumented, he does not get the protections of these constitutional rights. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/09/27/ismael-lopez-southaven-mississippi-police-shooting-constitution/ LA Times, new study finds that Latinos and African Americans are stopped and searched more than white people in the Los Angeles area https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-lapd-searches-20190605-story.html Different areas have different requirements for reporting the race involved with a stop Mayor found it important, says that it requires more inquiry White people, despite this, are more likely to be stopped with illegal items. Shows that racial profiling is ineffective Antonio Express News. Jessica Cisneros runs for TExas district 28, dubbed texas AOC. trying to unseat a centrist democrat. Plays a big role in turning texas blue https://www.expressnews.com/news/politics/texas_legislature/article/Progressive-Cisneros-posts-480k-fundraising-haul-14492608.php Creating controversy within democratic party over the possibility of increased inter-Democratic competition

The Latino Vote in 2018

While Trump had won the electoral college vote in 2016, his campaign made latinx voters angry Some thought that perhaps latinx were not as influential in 2016 As we reviewed, 2016 did see increased latino voter turnout, however it was not "record breaking" (no latino surge) Some analysts compared trump 2016 to wilson 1994, which ignited a major catalyst in Latino civic engagement Would 2018 mark the start of a national trend? The Brown Tide and the Blue Wave in 2018 Three main themes in 2018: Latinx voters continued to report high rates of anger What made it different to 2016 is that in 2016 he was making campaign promises, but were just proposals. In 2018, he was actually implementing these policies which had a larger reaction Trump had overplayed his hand on immigration, going too far to the extremes, giving dems the upper hand Latino voter turnout was indeed record breaking for a congressional midterm election Even with record gains, there is a possibility of even more growth in 2020 with proper mobilization Population upcoming is young What does virginia tell us about 2018? Anti immigrant campaign backfired The vocal majority doesn't like racism-calling out racism can mobilize voters against nativism Latinx vote share matched the 2016 presidential election for the first time in an off-year virginia election Normally, in presidential elections turnout is much higher than the off year elections. This is why the fact that they are the same is significant 2018 was gearing up to be a messaging battle over immigration related issues

What types of Latinx are more likely to be independent?

Younger people. Why?: Cohort Effects If you were born during the chicanx movement, more likely democrat because the dem party supported this movement Otherwise, more likely independent Age Effect Over time, they will come to understand that the democratic party is more likely to support their interests Lack of Efficacy might lead you to believe that neither party will represent your interests The proportion of democratic latinx is increasing, which suggests that their sense of efficacy may increase as their numerical influence of the party increases Information Lack of information makes it difficult to determine which party is best for you Education Lack of education makes gaining political information Immigration status Large group is socialized outside of the US, meaning they know less about US politics, making it more difficult for them to come to identify with a party

The Latino Historical Context: what is the historical basis for the latino experience in the United Staets

spanish, indian, African roots are all important throughout latin america Aztecs, Mayans, Olmecs, Toltecs, Incas Mexican American war, 1846-48, Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo Spanish American War 1898 PR became part of US, Cuba did not Jones Act of 1917 Incorporated PR as citizens at this point after SA war Challenge us to think about this context