Psych 110 FINAL

Persistence

(NOT a stage in problem solving, but often an important factor in determining successful problem solving)

Functional fixedness

A type of mental set in which individuals only consider the usual use (function) of objects. tendency to focus on the typical use of objects

Mere exposure

very often repeated exposure to a stimulus enhances our liking for it. - recognition heuristic

Unidimensional comparison

use a single criterion in making decision ex: buy the first car that runs for 800 or less

Cognitive nudge

- much like a physical one - information is arranged in a way that makes it more likely that you will behave in a certain way ex: picture of fly in urinal - lower spillage rates

Stages

1. identification or realization that a decision is needed 2. generation of two or more alternatives that would satisfy a goal or desired outcome implied by the decision 3. evaluation of alternatives (pros and cons of each alternatives) 4. selection of an alternative or action

How we explain chance events

- tendency to seek explanation for essentially chance occurrences that leads to much misunderstanding regarding the nature of coincidental - people think these occurrences need special explanation and do not understand that these coincidences are bound to happen even if nothing but chance is operating

rules

A good way to discover rules is to look for patterns in the givens or subgoals.

manipulate models

Be sure to consider solution paths that involve detours when faced with difficult problems. ex: can you move just three toothpicks to produce three identical squares

draw graph/diagram

Drawing a graph provides a clear picture of the results. Actually, an easier way of solving this problem involves changing the representation and restating the facts in the problem in an equivalent but different form.

Stages of problem solving - 5 stages

Familiarization/preparation stage Production stage Judgment or evaluation stage Incubation stage (often "Insight" occurs during this stage) Persistence

generalization/specialization

G: view problem as a related to a larger more general problem S: view problem as a more special case of a larger problem class - high tech chair with bookshelf

consult an expert

If you decide to consult an expert, the problem becomes: (a) how to know somebody who is an expert (b) how to select which "expert" to use. You need to be sure that the expert has all of the facts and has considered all of the relevant alternatives. Listen carefully to the expert's analysis of the risks and alternatives, but make the decision yourself.

Worldview constraints

Limitations on the way we approach problems placed on us by our social class, nationality, or political views.

Mindlessness

Making decisions with little or no conscious effort.

Heuristics

Mental shortcuts or "rules of thumb" that often lead to a solution (but not always) no solution guaranteed; can be very helpful but more likely to produce errors - compared to algorithms

Natural frequencies vs. subjective probabilities

NF - facilitate the computation of a cause's probability (or frequency) given an effect - Think of a physician who learns from direct experience rather than from books with statistics. She observes, case by case, whether or not her patients have a new disease and whether the outcome of a test is positive or negative SP - refers to personal estimates of the likelihood of events. ex: probability of women having breast cancer given a positive mammogram

Anatomy of a problem

a problem is a gap or barrier between where you are and where you want to be Newell and Simon (1972) argue that problems can be understood by reducing them to their anatomical parts

Mental set

Predispositions to think and respond in a certain way to solve a problem

working backwards

Start with goal and work backwards

crowdsourcing

Problems are posted to a public site and people are invited to attempt a solution.

means-ends analysis

analyze differences between initial state and goal state and reduce the difference or distance - create sub goals ex: complete one side of Rubiks cube

multiple statements of the goal

Stating the goal in many different ways, which results in multiple goal states, even when the problems appears to be well defined, is an example of a planful approach to problem solving. The generation of multiple goal states will increase the size of the problem space and provide more opportunities for finding a good solution.

write the problem down

all problems are initially represented in your head. its a good idea to get the paths and goals on paper or into some other concrete form this tactic will reduce the memory load and allow you to view the problem visually

Insight fallacy

The belief that understanding a problem will solve the problem. When gaining insight into a problem it may help us by; 1. Providing comfort, security, and safety in understanding what is wrong. 2. Assisting in the development of new problem-solving strategies. 3. Giving meaningful new understanding which will create harmony between our thoughts, emotions, and actions.

representation of the problem space

The best way to solve a problem is to devise the best representation. In an extensive set of studies of the way scientists think about difficult problems, Dunbar (1998) found that when scientists represented a problem, they naturally included those features of the problem that they thought would be important in solving the problem, with systematic differences between the representations reflecting different beliefs about the nature of the problem. They take advantage of spatial locations to group information in a visual format; they also act as a check on how well you understand the problem.

Assessing desirable and undesirable consequences

The decision-maker must always be aware of the risks and benefits associated with taking or not taking a particular course of action. The way consequences are evaluated will depend on the context.

Extrapolation

an estimation of a value from a trend suggested by known values often involves making predictions about possible future values based on known past values can be useful if the projection is not too far in the future but all available factors that could influence the estimation should be taken into consideration

Significant differences

There are statistical procedures to determine if a difference computed on two or more samples is likely to have happened by chance If it is very unlikely to be a chance occurrence, it is called a significant difference.

Availability heuristic (bias)

a tendency to estimate the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory if certain events come readily to mind we judge such events to be more common than events that do not come readily to the mind

Using decision worksheets: know how to fill out worksheets and make a decision using the: - the Dimensional Comparison method

all criteria (considerations) are treated as equal 1. for each consideration - find alternative that scored highest on dimension and assign point 2. add up points for each alternative solution - if tie, each gets a point 3. choose alternative with most points

d. problem space

all of the possible solution paths from the initial state to the goal state in a problem the average 40-move chess game has 10^120 paths

Means and medians

averages (means) are greatly influenced by extreme values (outliers) - when there are outliers, its often better to use medians (the middle value when numbers are arranged from low to high) rather than the mean, which tends to give a distorted view of what the "avg" is.

draw hierarchical trees

branching diagrams. They are most frequently used to assess mathematically the probability or likelihood of uncertain outcomes. can be useful aids in decision making and problem solving.

Misleading and irrelevant information

can "derail one's trail of thought" and can lead you down blind paths. The constraints imposed upon us by our society cause us to view problems from our own narrow frames of reference.

Multidimensional comparison

compares and evaluates more than one dimension or criteria and more than one alternative simultaneously

the Monty Hall problem

counter-intuitive statistics puzzle: There are 3 doors, behind which are two goats and a car. You pick a door (call it door A). You're hoping for the car of course. Monty Hall, the game show host, examines the other doors (B & C) and opens one with a goat. (If both doors have goats, he picks randomly.) Here's the game: Do you stick with door A (original guess) or switch to the unopened door? Does it matter? Surprisingly, the odds aren't 50-50. If you switch doors you'll win 2/3 of the time

b. goal state

desired end state - problem solved

Using decision worksheets: know how to fill out worksheets and make a decision using the: - 2/3 ideal rule

determines whether any alternatives are close to "ideal" 1. calculate ideal or perfect score first - on overall assessment sheet add weights for each criteria and multiply by 2 2. compare the overall alternatives values and see if any meet the 2/3 of ideal requirement

Judgment or evaluation stage

evaluation of solution paths - select best one

Production stage

generation of solution paths that define the problem space

Elimination by aspects

good strategy to narrow the number of alternatives sequentially eliminate choices as they fail to meet certain criteria

Computing probabilities in multiple outcome situations (using tree diagrams)

often concerned with the probability of two or more events occurring, such as getting 2 heads in 2 flips of a coin; these situations are called multiple outcomes

The problem of personal experience

often used to make many judgments about the world but is sometimes inaccurate - granny smokes 2 packs a day for 80 years. smoking doesn't cause cancer.

Emotional states

influences decision making when people feel good about themselves, they are not..

Post-Decision Hindsight

involves the false belief (after the fact) that one could have predicted the outcome of a decision or its consequences even before the decision was made of little value in the decision-making process prevents us from learning from experience contributes to overconfidence ex: i knew she was too good for you, you shouldn't have invested in that stock

make a matrix

is a rectangular array of facts or numbers. When the givens in a problem can be broken down into categories, a matrix may be a good method of representation.

e. givens

knowledge, information or rules that limit or constrain the problem

Probability

likelihood that a particular event will happen - number of ways the outcome can occur divided by the number of possible outcomes

objective probability

mathematically determined statement of likelihood about known frequencies

Algorithms

methodical procedure or formula that guarantees a correct solution computers are often helpful when using algorithms - associated with mathematics

c. solution paths

methods or means for solving a problem that connects initial and goal states - rubik's cube - sudoku

trial and error

more systematic search; considers all possible solutions

analogies - personal - direct - symbolic - fantasy and metaphors

noticing similarities between problems and employing similar solutions PA: A problem-solving strategy suggested by Gordon (1961) in which you think of yourself as a participant in the phenomenon that you want to understand. DA: A problem-solving strategy suggested by Gordon (1961) in which you note similarities between your problem and related problems in other domains. SA: The deliberate use of visual imagery or other symbolic representation as a problem-solving aid FA: A problem-solving strategy suggested by Gordon (1961) in which problem-solvers utilize their imagination to conceptualize ideal solutions.

Using decision worksheets: know how to fill out worksheets and make a decision using the: - Overall Assessment method

overall assessment 1. multiply (alternative value) x (consideration value) 2. add all values for each alternative column 3. choose highest alternative's score at best -choose alternative with highest value

Post-Decision foot-in-the-door

people are more likely to comply with large request after they have first complied with a much smaller request people adjust their attitudes along with their actions, liking the people they agreed to help

Biased discounting

predilection to discount or reduce the magnitude or probability of unfavorable consequences failure to assess risk

Well-defined

problem with a single correct solution and a clearly defined goal

Ill-defined

problems with many correct solutions; often, the goals are vague

Entrapment

refers to a situation in which an individual has already invested time, effort, or money and therefore decides to continue in the situation because of what has already been invested AKA sunk costs - costs we already sunk into a course of action ex: staying at a job you dislike

affective forecasting

refers to out ability to predict (forecast) how we will feel about an event should it occur; people aren't very good at affective forecasting EX: how will you feel after buying a new home?

laws of chance (long run vs. short run predictions)

refers to the ability to predict the number or percentage of trails on which a particular outcome will occur long-run: likelihood that an event will happen over many trials short-run: difficult to predict, outcomes of a few trails

Gambler's fallacy (hot streaks in sports)

refers to the belief that chance processes are self-correcting so that if an event has not occurred in a while it is now more likely to occur. - Robin Williams how not to buy a house; plane crash

Regression toward the mean

refers to the fact that in general, when someone scores extremely high or low on some measure, he or she will tend to score closer to the mean (avg.) on a second measurement ex: Israeli flight instructors- praising excellent performance was followed by worse performance; criticizing performance was followed by improved performance

Subjective probability

refers to the individual's personal estimates of the likelihood of events

Overconfidence

refers to the tendency of people to be more confident in their decisions about probabilistic events than they should be - experts are even more likely to be guilty of overconfidence than non-experts because they trust their expertise rather than recognizing the role of chance

Wishful thinking (Pollyanna Principle)

refers to the tendency to overestimate the chance of success or the likelihood of desirable outcomes manifests as the belief that favorable outcomes are more likely than unfavorable ones

Subjective utility

refers to the value of a particular choice to an individual a personal assessment about a choice, which is one reason why a decision making it inexact

hints

relying on additional information made available after beginning of a problem ex: hot/cold game

restating the problem

rephrase the problem

Psychological reactance

resistance that arises from restrictions that are placed on freedom of choice people will select a less preferred alternative if they are told that they must select the preferred alternatives often want something more when it is no longer available

Incubation stage (often "Insight" occurs during this stage)

rest period; helps to shed inappropriate thinking, reduce frustration and fatigue insight: sudden knowledge or solution to a problem

contradiction

solving a problem by looking for a contradiction (opposed to one another)

a. initial state

start or beginning of the problem

simplification

strip away complexity as much as possible

Familiarization/preparation stage

studying, identifying and understanding the problem (including the nature of the problem the desired goal and the givens)

split-half method

systematic method whereby you continually select half way point between initial and goal state

Mechanization

tendency to reuse a routinized or habitual solution which obscures a more efficient solution "old school"

The search for meaning

the causes of events that happen to us and to other, we often find patterns and meaning; spectacular explanation fallacy - most of us rarely consider the randomness of countless events in out lives, the search for meaning often hampers our ability to think critically

Conjunction error

the error of believing that the occurrence of two events is more likely than the occurrence of one of them EX: Arthur Winchester is 73 years old, he has pasty white skin, republican, multi-millionaire, executive for Citibank - Kendrick, Drake, JayZ, Diddy are on his playlist - owns a yacht, Kendrick, Drake, JayZ, Diddy are on his playlist

brainstorming

the generation of many possible solutions without evaluating them until later; creative process beneficial in generating good ideas that solve problems 1. people work alone in silence (produces more ideas alone) 2. open generation of ideas in a group setting; finally, the ideas are evaluated

Group Think

the mode of thinking that occurs when the desire for harmony in a decision-making group overrides a realistic appraisal of alternatives ex: failure to anticipate the 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor - Kennedy's Bay of Pig's fiasco

Omission bias

the preference for risks associated with NOT taking an action over risks associated with acting there is a consistent bias in which the cost of "doing nothing" is not adequately assessed ex: risk associated with not getting the flue vaccine are minimized

Assimilation bias

the propensity to resolve discrepancies between preexisting schemas and new information in the direction of assimilation rather than accommodation, even at the expense of distorting the information itself

Overconfidence

the tendency to be more confident than correct or to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgments. does not improve with experience

Belief perseverance effect

the tendency to cling stubbornly to one's beliefs, even in the face of contradictory or disconfirming evidence

Reciprocity

the tendency to respond to a positive action with another positive action - we feel compelled to respond positively to kind behavior

Base-rate neglect

the tendency to underestimate the effect of an a priori probability and mistakenly emphasize the effect of a secondary probability value ex: that the goodnight kiss requires that Louise agree to go out with Charlie in the first place (making the first event - agreeing to the date - an a priori event.

Post-Decision Cognitive dissonance

theory based on the notion that people seek to have their beliefs, attitudes, and actions be consistent with one another we reduce dissonance by changing our beliefs or attitudes so that they are in accord with our actions associated with rationalization

random search

unsystematic consideration of all possible solutions random selection

The "AND" rule

when we want to determine the probability of one event AND another event occurring together, we multiply their separate probabilities A x B = probability of A and B we only use the AND rule when the events are independent

the "OR" rule

when we want to determine the probability of one event OR another event occurring together, we add their separate probabilities A + B = probability of A or B we only use the OR rule when the events are independent can also only use the OR rule when events are mutually exclusive, if one event occurs the other event cannot occur

Representative heuristic (bias)

which is the belief that any member of a category should "look like" or have the traits associated with its category

Every decision is a trade-off: Take stock of pluses and minuses

you'll almost always have to give up something to get something. Purposefully choosing and embracing one trade-off over another provides a framework to make better - and less stress-filled - decisions.