Psych 318 Midterm 2

How does hindsight bias occur, according to the RAFT (Reconstruction After Feedback with Take the Best) model? A. It is driven by a self-serving bias, such that we show a hindsight bias when it helps us maintain a positive self-image. B. People who can't remember their original estimate try to reconstruct it by making the judgment again after the fact. C. Associated pieces of information in memory are activated strongly when the outcome is known. D. We use relevant information to construct a commonsense bridge to the outcome.

B. People who can't remember their original estimate try to reconstruct it by making the judgment again after the fact.

According to the lens model of human judgment, judgments can only be consistent with the criterion (or truth state) to the extent that A. The statistical model accurately captures the underlying psychological process. B. There are both ecologically-valid cues available and the judge utilizes the ecologically-valid cues. C. The judge utilizes the ecologically-valid cues. D> There are ecologically-valid cues available.

B. There are both ecologically-valid cues available and the judge utilizes the ecologically-valid cues.

A fundamental assumption of expected utility theory is that people A. are unable to assign utilities to outcomes. B. are risk-averse. C. are risk-seeking. D. generally consider outcomes of any kind to be desirable.

B. are risk-averse.

Studies have shown that as people gain experience in making predictions in a domain, they A. generally become less and less accurate over time. B. are unlikely to improve unless they receive corrective feedback. C. become more accurate but do not become more confident over time. D. generally become more and more accurate over time.

B. are unlikely to improve unless they receive corrective feedback.

Classic theories of rational choice, which assumed that people have the full set of information about their choices and are capable of calculating precisely which choice is optimal, can be contrasted with A. the goal of maximizing. B. theories of bounded rationality. C. expected utility theory. D. normative models.

B. theories of bounded rationality.

In a comprehensive study of hindsight bias across the lifespan, Bernstein, Erdfelder, Meltzoff, Peria, and Loftus (2011) found that hindsight bias was strongest in A. the oldest adults. B. older children. C. the youngest children. D. younger adults.

C. the youngest children.

people with experience and expertise in the domain make intuitive predictions for individual cases * expert decides, based on intuition, which features of the case are most important for making the prediction

Clinical Intuition

had to happen that way (inevitable)

Creeping Determinism

What are the two types of decision errors in a signal detection model? A. Hits and Correct Rejections. B. Hits and False Alarms. C. Misses and Correct Rejections. D. Misses and False Alarms.

D. Misses and False Alarms.

During a faculty meeting, a high-school teacher named Bradley, argued that teachers should scold students who perform poorly on math tests. In his experience, students who perform poorly on a math test and are then scolded tend to perform better the next time around. An alternative explanation for Bradley's observation is A. Intuition is unreliable B. Affective forecasting C. Hindsight bias D. Regression to the mean

D. Regression to the mean

Expected utility theory A. is primarily designed to minimize obstacles to expected gain. B. is not related in any way to expected value theory. C. provides an accurate descriptive model of human decision making. D. takes into account the idea that value is subjective.

D. takes into account the idea that value is subjective.

Recall that in one of Fischoff's (1975) seminal studies on the hindsight bias, people were asked to read about a complex event (e.g., an 1814 battle between the British and the Gurkhas) and to make predictions about the outcome of the event. The methodology employed in this study is referred to as A. the memory paradigm B. a relative frequency-of-occurrence judgment C. a set-size judgment D. the hypothetical paradigm.

D. the hypothetical paradigm.

outcome knowledge leads to fluent (improved) processing of a distorted version of that stimulas

Fluency musattribution

Informally- "knew it all along" Once we know the true outcome we think that before the outcome occurred it would've been more probable than it really did

Hindsight Bias

What is the capital of Australia A) Sydney B) Melbourne C) Canberra D)Brisbane * Some participants were told the answers and some were asked to give the probability that they would not have gotten it right even if they had not been given the right answer. Others not told the answers. * Overestimate probability participants would've gotten it right if they weren't told

Hypothetical Paradigm

the "judges" orediction (you are trying to judge)

Judgement

Lienent= stringent=

Left right

Ask people to recall memory judgements made at some earlier time (Fischhoff and Beyth 1975)

Memory Paradigm

Culprit is not in the line up All participants make ID Feedback: confirming (picked the right guy), disconfirming (wrong guy), and control (no feedback) different from hindsight bias because you're not told the right answer, then the experimenter will say your right

Post Identification Feedback Effect

* People try to recall original judgement from memory; if they cannot, try to reconstruct memory by making judgment over again * People try to recall probability cues and cue values that they used to make initial judgment * Once correct answer is learned, cue values may be non-consciously updated to correspond more closely to the correct answer

RAFT

Intend to explain how people make hindsight judgements about 2-AFC questions in which 2 things are compared to each other in terms of some numerical measurement

RAFT

Which city is larger, Hamburg, Germany or Heidelberg, Germany? Probability cues: city with premier league soccer team likely has larger population; city with larger exhibition center is likely to have larger population Cue Values: moderate confidence Hamburg has premier league team and that Heidelberg does not Once correct answer is known, people might become more confident Hamburg has a premiere league team and Heidelberg does not.

RAFT

RAFT (memory accounts)

Reconstruction After Feedback with Take the Best

* statistical phenomenon where extreme scores will tend to be closer to the mean if we mean if we measure them again * can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change

Regression of the mean

Kahnemans story about teaching Israeli flight instructors about principle of skill teaching * reward good performance rather than punishing mistakes one person said something that contradicts Kahnemans which can be explained by...

Regression of the mean

How old was Nelson Mandela when he became president of South Africa? *When correct answer revealed (75), most relavent info to correct answer becomes more strongly activated *Reconstructed estimate becomes more heavily influenced by knowledge of white hair and approximate age of presidents

SARA

SARA (memory accounts)

Selective Activation, Reconstruction, and Anchoring

Meehl - trained counsellors predict grades of college freshman

Statistical formula outperformed 11/14 counsellors

A person must give up a great job because of a heart condition. If person had a bypass operation, life expectancy might be increased, although the fatality rate is 8%. The person's physician decides to go through with the operation Hindsight Bias ? Outcome Bias ?

Whats the probability of success? Was this a good decision?

Battle between British and Gurkha 1814 *told Gurkha won, you highlight parts of the battle that make a Gurkha victory make more sense *Having commonsense explanations at the ready makes it easier to build a casual bridge to the outcome

causal model theory

things you can observe about the to-be judged criterion

cues

response in a situation composed of 1. more than one course of action 2. uncertainty about events that will affect revenant outcomes 3. positive-negative outcomes contingent on the events categorical/binary (ex-turning left or right)

decision

amount of evidence she requires to treat the patient for cancer

decision crterion

fix gaze on ball and then run so the angle of the gaze between them and the ball stays constant

gaze heuristic

If people can generate a casual antecedent that explains the outcome... If casual antecedents favor alternative outcome...

hindsight bias reverse hindsight bias

A counterfactual in which people are presented with the definitive outcome and asked to rate the likelihood of the outcome as if they did not know it (Fischhoff 1975)

hypothetical paradigm

Human ability to infer, estimate, and predict the character of unknown events. * measured by a degree (ex- 10 pt scale) Based on observed cues that give approximations to an unobserved true state of the world

judgment

lots of uncertainty and unpredictability

low-validity environment's

President Nixon visits to China in 1972 * Some events occurred and some didn't * Participants asked before and after * Participants memories were biased towards the actual outcomes -things that happened had a higher probability in hindsight -things that did not happed had a lower probability in hindsight * Asked you to remember what you previously said

memory paradigm

"they never would have seen it coming"

reverse hindsight bias

an enormous database is analyzed in order to determine which particular traits are best

sabermetrics - used in scouting - sometimes over traditional method

Predictions about a particular case are made solely on the basis of empirical evidence and/or a statistical comparison to data drawn from a large sample

statistical prediction

things trying to predict

to-be-judges criterion