Soci 312 Exam 2

Floaters

Floating population migrant workers who have stayed at place of destination but without local household registration (hukou) for at least 6 months One of six people in China today is a "floater"

Chinese Emigration

"China's movement towards markets and rapid economic growth may contain the seeds of an enormous migration ... that would produce a flow of immigrants [to the U.S.] that would dwarf levels of migration now observed from Mexico..." (Douglas Massey, 1995: 649) Of the around 200,000 Chinese who leave China every year, an estimated 50,000 leave for the United States; half enter legally and half enter as undocumented. In 2011, 59% of undoc population from Mexico, & 2.4% from China 59 % of undocumented immigrants from Mexico, 2.4% from China 2 % (underestimate in my opinion) from China -- 2008 The total number of Chinese in the U.S. (1.5 million born in China, 2.3 million born in the U.S.) today number over 3.8 million nationwide and nearly 1.3 million in California. The San Jose-San FranciscoOakland metropolitan region alone is home to 562,000 Chinese Americans, second only to greater New York. My hometown, San Francisco, is 20% Chinese

Crude death rate (CDR)

(# deaths/size of mid-year total population)* 1,000 • The CDR is crude because the denominator includes the entire population; the members are not all equally at the risk of experiencing death • Risk of death varies by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status • Younger populations will have lower CDR's than older populations If a population has more persons in the older age groups than in the younger age groups, then the death rates of the older groups (where there is usually more mortality) will be more heavily weighted than the death rates of the younger groups (where there is usually less mortality), and vice versa.

Consequences and Implications

2.1 "Demographic Dividend" here but not forever 2.2 A baby boom is not likely

Interrelations of components of heterosexuality for males

All three - 82.59% Desire and identity - 16.16%

Interrelations of components of homosexuality for males

Desire and identity - 40.03% All three - 28.69% Desire - 13.53%

What is causing these changing patterns of VOs and EWIs ?

The Size of the Undocumented Population from Mexico is Declining Hence, Number of Visa Overstayers Is Increasing % of Visa Overstayers Is Increasing

Ages of unmarried mothers when their children were born

under 15: all births were to unmarried mothers in 2013 women aged 15-19: 89% of births were to unmarried moms women 20-early 30s: over 65% of births to unmarried

Why a Border Wall Won't Work in the U.S.

1. Because the border has long been a place of connection, a permeable membrane connecting two countries. Indeed the Wall Is an aberration in history; for most of human history there was no United States of America or Estados Unidos Mexicanos. 2. Because Twin City prosperity requires there be no barriers There are eight major twin cities and many more minor twin cities whose functioning requires that there be no border. (See next two slides re. the twin cities.) 3. Because people always find ways over, under, through and around Walls. 4. Because "third nationhood" is a reality. 5. Because EWI migrants tend to be circular. 6. Because Mexico is increasingly global and democratic. 7. Because more than 2/3rds of undocumented immigrants to the U.S. today are Visa Overstayers and most of them fly into the U.S. over the wall. 8. Because Walls almost always end up coming down

The Eight Main Twin Cities on US-Mexico Border

1. San Ysidro/San Diego-Tijuana (California, US - Baja California, Mex)** busiest land border crossing in the world ** 2. Calexico-Mexicali (California, US - Baja California, Mex) 3. Nogales-Nogales (Arizona, US - Sonora, Mex) 4. El Paso-Ciudad Juarez (Texas, US - Chihuahua, Mex) 5. Eagle Pass-Piedras Negras (Texas, US - Coahuila, Mex) 6. Laredo-Nueva Laredo (Texas, US - Tamaulipas, Mex) 7. Hildago-Reynosa (Texas, US - Tamaulipas, Mex) 8. Brownsville-Matamoros (Texas, US - Tamaulipas, Mex)

Number of Undocumented Immigrants from Mexico is declining. Some reasons:

1. Tremendous Increases in Mexico in GDP per capita (next slide) 2. Unemployment rate in U.S. has been high, although declining in last few years (2nd to next slide) 3. Increased social and economic opportunities in Mexico 4. Dramatic reduction in fertility rate in Mexico (TFR these days = 2.1, down from TFR in 1960 = 7.1)

Why do demographers study sexuality

1. the AIDS pandemic (the largest epidemic/pandemic in human history) makes studying and understanding sexuality necessary. 2. studying historically persecuted populations is one way of working towards the promotion of human rights.

China's Fertility policies

1.1 1949 to 1971: two "on-again and off-again" fertility policies 1.2 1971-1979: the "wan-xi-shao" (later, longer, fewer) fertility policy 1.3 1979-1984: the one-child policy for all 1.4 1985-2012: "the 1.5 child policy" 1.5 2013-2015: "the 1.75 child policy" 1.6 October 2015 - present: the two-child policy

oldest father

A 96 year old man in India

Life expectancy at birth in the US 1900, 2003 and 2009

A boy born in 1900 could expect to live to 46 yrs, and a girl to 48 yrs. - By 2003 a boy could anticipate living for 75 yrs, and a girl infant for 80 yrs; it is 76 and 81 in 2009. • For people in the older ages, the increases have not been as striking. - A 60 yr old male in 1901 could expect to live for 14.3 more years, and a female of the same age, for 15.2 more years . - By 2003, a 60 yr old male could anticipate 20.4 more years of life, and a 60 yr old female, 23.7 more years; in 2009, 21.3 for males, 24.4 for females. • See Figure 5.8 for data up to 2003

Fertility change in the US

A high fertility rate was an important component of the rapid population increases in the U.S. between 1790 and 1860 - Resulted from the fact that more than one-half of the population was fecund - When agriculture was dominant, people tended to have more children in order to have more laborers • TFR (for whites) dropped to 4.6 in 1870 and to 3.6 in 1900. By 1920, just after World War I, the white TFR total fertility rate had dropped to 3.2 In the late 1950s and early 1960s, the TFR reached 3.7. • In the late 1960s the fertility rate started to decline. This was influenced by many factors: - Higher living expenses, increases in educational opportunities, and higher female employment. - Cheap, easily accessible, and more effective contraceptives, along with abortions. • In 1972, the TFR dropped for the first time below the replacement level of 2.1 • Since 1990, the TFR in the United States has remained at just at or above 2, the highest TFR of any developed country in the world. • In 2016 the U.S. TFR is 1.8.

3rd fertility policy, Wan-Xi-Shao, 1971-79

A policy stressing later (wan) marriages, longer (xi) intervals between children, and fewer (shao) children Implemented country-wide, with extensive local controls The policy recommended two children for urban couples and three for rural. Campaign was hugely successful; fertility fell from 6 babies per woman to over 2 in 1979. • In the mid-1970s, individual incentives for sterilization became part of the family planning campaign. • The decision of when to have a child became a public affair; it involved getting permission to become pregnant from local birth planning units. Every danwei (work unit) has its birth planning unit.

who are the 11.2 million undocumented immigrants?

Around two-fifths of the undocumented immigrants (4.5 million) are visa overstayers (VO). They entered with legal passports and legal visas but either stayed past their visa expiration dates or otherwise violated the terms of their admission into the U.S. One of the most famous VO's is Trump's current (third) wife. Most VO's flew in from Asia, Europe and other continents and entered legally at major airports in San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Houston, and elsewhere. Trump's Wall is not high enough to keep them out.

Interrelations of components of bisexuality for females

Behavior - 65.19% All three - 11.56% Behavior and identity - 9.74%

Interrelations of components of bisexuality for males

Behavior - 72.81% Identity - 7.72%

Interrelations of components of heterosexuality for females

Behavior, identity and desire - 74.96% Desire, identity - 21.22%

Internal Migration in China

CHINA-- a country of over 1.3 billion persons -- is now experiencing a tidal wave of internal migration from its hinterlands to its major industrialized metropolitan areas. Rural-origin migrant workers, known as the "floating population" or "floaters" (liudong renkou), began migrating to the industrializing regions of China in the 1980s.

Crude birth rate (CBR)

Calculated for the entire population the CBR for year z is the number of births in year z to the midyear population in the year z, multiplied by a constant of 1,000 In 2016 the estimated CBR for the world was 20/1000

2nd fertility policy, 1962-1966

China recovered from the GLF by the end of 1961. In 1962 the fertility jumped up to over 7 babies per woman (see next slide). In early 1962 China resumed its family planning program, mainly via propaganda encouraging family size limitation. The Birth Planning Office of the State Council was established in 1964. Abortion restrictions were greatly relaxed. This second campaign began to have some impact. But it was greatly deemphasized in 1966 because of the Cultural Revolution. There was virtually no birth planning work for the next four years.

1st fertility policy, 1956-1958

China's 1st five-year plan, 1953. Some leaders worried about the rapid growth rate of the population of 2% per year. These worries ran against Mao and his famous statement that "people are the most precious of all things" Nevertheless, Ma Yinchu's thinking had some effect, and was supported by the more moderate Zhou Enlai (the Prime Minister 49-76). Birth planning and relaxed restrictions began quietly. By 1956 birth control as a national policy seems to have been firmly established. But this first campaign was short-lived, with the establishment by Mao in 1958 of the Great Leap Forward, which required a large-scale rural labor force. Mao's leftist view of accepting population as an asset, rather than a liability, gained prominence. The 1st birth control campaign came to a standstill in 1958.

Fertility reduction

China's fertility reduction is recognized as one of the most dramatic reductions in history. It was initiated mainly by the wan-xi-shao program. But it was also brought about by China's economic programs and its "opening up" to the outside world. Mao died in 1976. Deng Xiaoping became the unofficial leader of the country. He opened up the country to the West. Economic development followed as a result of Deng, and as a result of the "demographic dividend."

Period measures of fertility

Crude birth rate general fertility rate age-specific fertility rate total fertility rate gross reproduction rate net reproduction rate

Interrelations of components of homosexuality for females

Desire and identity - 31.21% Behavior 23.19% Desire 22.37% All three - 17.62%

One-child policy, December 1979

Despite the successes of the wan-xi-shao policy, Chinese leaders in the mid-1970s began to worry about "demographic momentum" and also learned about the discussions in the West about overpopulation. Population projections developed by Dr. Song Jian and his workers indicated that under the wan-xi-shao program, China would greatly exceed its goal of 1.2 billion by the year 2000. The one-child policy was thus launched in late 1979. Its principal goal was to eliminate births of three per family, and to encourage families to have no more than one child, especially those in urban areas. Women were sterilized after a second child. Each year the preferred number of births was determined by the country, and then distributed among the provinces, then to the counties, then to the work-units. Only a married couple could request permission from the work-unit to have a birth. Birth quotas were passed downwards through the administrative hierarchy until each small group received its allocated number of births. Thus, decisions regarding family size became subjected to intervention by the state in the form of controlled peer or group pressure.

MA Yinchu (1882-1982)

Economist and demographer Studied in the U.S. (PhD from Columbia University in 1914) President of Peking University, 1951-1960 Very concerned about China's potential for overpopulation But Ma's theory and recommendations were dismissed by Mao as Malthusian He was dismissed from public life Rehabilitated in 1979 Appointed honorary President of Peking University until his death in 1982 China's "One Child Policy" drew heavily on Ma's reasoning that "the State should have the power to intervene in reproduction and to control population," and followed his advice about using propaganda about the dangers of population growth Ma was denounced as anti-Marxist and his population theory was labeled as bourgeois theory.

Fertility terms

Fertility: the production of male and females births; actual behavior reproduction: the production of female births; actual behavior fecundity: the potential of producing births sterility: the inability to produce births childlessness: the production of no children

Premodern mortality

For most of human history, life expectancy was 20 to 30 years. oAbout 2/3 of babies survived to their first birthday, and about 1/2 were still alive at age five. • Less than 10% of people born made it to age 65. During the plague years in London in the 1660s, only 3% made it to age 65.

contraceptive behavior of US women

From the table we see that among all women 15 to 44 years of age (married and unmarried women), the leading contraceptive method is the oral contraceptive. • Almost 19% of all women (15-49) were using the pill. • Nearly 17% of women were sterilized • These two methods have been the most popular methods among U.S. women since 1982 • 38 % of all U.S. women are not currently using any form of contraception (next slide) • Of these women, 3 % are sterile, and almost 10 % are pregnant, or just gave birth, or are trying to become pregnant. • Only 7.4 % of all women who are non-users are sexually active and at risk. It is these women who demographers define as "sexually active," i.e., women having sex at least once in past three months.

What percentage of the population is heterosexual and homosexual?

Heterosexuals - 72% females and 79% of males of the population the social constructivist point shows that really 95% for females and 96% for males Homosexuals- .3% for females and .6% for males of the US population the social constructivist approach suggests that 2% of each sex are homosexual

ASFRs in the US 1970, 1995 and 2015

I show in Figure 5 (previous slide) the schedules of age-specific fertility rates (ASFR's) for U.S. women for the years of 1970, 1995, and 2015. The ASFR's for the younger age groups, namely, 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 have all declined from 1970 (the dotted line) to 2015 (the solid line). To illustrate, the ASFR's for 20-24-year-old women dropped from 175 births per 1,000 women in 1970 to under 80 births per 1,000 women in 2015. In contrast, the ASFR's for the older women, particularly women aged 30-34 and 35-39, increased in the years between 1970 and 2015, by between 5 and 10 births per 1,000 women. This clearly makes manifest an overall trend in the U.S., namely, that increases in ages at parenthood have occurred among U.S. women in the past several decades because younger women are having fewer children and older women are having more children.

Border Militarism is not working in the U.S.

In 2015, 44 million people living in the U.S. were born in another country. Three-quarters, or around 33 million, are lawful (aka, "legal") immigrants. They are either naturalized citizens, or persons granted lawful permanent or temporary residence status (e.g., as workers or students), or persons granted asylum or admitted as refugees. The remaining 25 percent of the foreign-born population, around 11.2 million people, are unauthorized (aka, "illegal" or undocumented) immigrants.

First marriages in the U.S.

In the 19th century males would marry at 26 and females at 22. 1950 - 66% of women at age 15+ were married and 20% were never married. 1960 - males at 22.8 and females at 20.3 along with the growth of well-paid jobs under industrialization 2014 - males at 29 and females at 27. 50% of women at age 15+ were married and 39% were never married

population policy

In the Population and Society book starting around p. 386, I note that a population policy is a deliberately constructed arrangement or program "through which governments influence, directly or indirectly, demographic change." These arrangements, typically, are "legislative measures, administrative programs, and other governmental actions intended to alter or modify existing population trends in the interest of national survival and welfare."

World fertility trends and patterns

In the World in 2016, the TFR is 2.5. - But this TFR value of 2.5 hides the tremendous heterogeneity in fertility around the World • In 2016, 95 of the 205 countries of the world had TFR's at or below the replacement level of 2.1 • (the number in 2013 was 90; in 2005 it was 73). • In 2016, of the remaining countries, 18 had TFRs of 5.0 or higher, and 16 are African. • In 2013, 27 countries (25 of them African) had TFR's of 5.0 or higher. Depopulation is the decline in the size of the population - Despite attention to the phenomenon of overpopulation, declines in population are expected to occur in around 50 or more countries by the year 2050, and in even more countries thereafter. • Although the world is projected to grow in the decades ahead, a slowing of the rate of population growth is already underway, and a decline in the size of the population of the world could begin as early as 2050 - Europe will be most affected, where the reason for depopulation is sustained low fertility - This will have significant economic impacts and implications

Number of babies born to unmarried mothers

In the late 1950s: only 5% were born to unmarried mothers mid-1970s: 14% mid-1980s: 30% 2013: 41% Homes for unwed mothers reduced in number with the: legalization of abortion, contraception widely available and effective, increased percentages of single mothers and changing societal attitudes toward single parenthood percentages of births to unmarried mothers by race and Hispanic origin N-H white: 10% in 1980 and 30% in 2013 N-H black: 57% in 1980 and 74% in 2013 Hispanic women: about 25% in 1980 53% in 2013

No baby Boom

In the past year about 1 million out of 11 million eligible couples have applied to have a second child under new rules, according to Chinese health authorities. Around 16.6 million babies were born in China in 2015, down from 16.9 million in 2014. (Around 3.9 million births in the U.S. in 2014.) In 2018, new born population continue to drop to just over 15 million. That's far from the baby boom that population planners—not to mention infant goods makers—had been hoping for. Officials initially predicted as many as 10 million extra births over the next five years, although there were also much more conservative estimates of around 2 million extra babies. It looks like the increase in births will not exceed 1 million.

But the % Visa Overstayers is Increasing and the % EWIs is Decreasing

In year of 1995 VO's = 29% of all Undocumented Population; EWIs = 71% In year of 2004, VO's = 37% of all Undocumented Population; EWIs = 63% In year of 2010, VO's = 61% of all Undocumented Population; EWIs = 39% In year of 2014, VO's = 66% of all Undocumented Population; EWIs = 34%

Demographers study

LGBHATI populations Lesbian Gay Male Bisexual Heterosexual Asexual Transgender Intersex The three main dimensions of sexuality are the trifecta of sexuality, sexual attraction and sexual behavior and self-identification. psychologists and sexologists tend to focus on the attraction dimesnion. sociologists more on the identification dimesnions. and demographers more on the behavior dimension

Comparison of life expectancies in 2015 (Chine, US, Japan)

Life expectancy at birth China, 2015: 73 (males); 78 (females) USA, 2015: 76 (males); 81 (females) Japan, 2015: 80 (males); 87 (females)

youngest girl to ever give birth

On May 14, 1939 Lina Medina from the Ticrapo District of Peru gave birth by cesarean section in Lima. She was five and a half.

Life table

One of the most important and elegant measures of the mortality experiences of a population is the life table. • Who firstly use life table to study mortality? (Hint: One of the FATHERS) • John Graunt (1620-1674) and his analyses of the Bills of Mortality. • The life table starts with a population (a radix) of 100,000 at age 0. From each age to the next, the population is decremented according to agespecific mortality probabilities until all members have died. • The mortality schedule is fixed and does not change over the life of the population. Most versatile and most useful of the demographer's tools • The mathematical model that portrays mortality conditions at a particular time among a population • Provides a basis for measuring longevity • First put together by John Graunt in 1662 (2011 one of the most recent years for a US Life Table)

Reasons why blacks cohabitation is higher than whites

Out of the 72% of the births to unmarried black women, one-third are cohabiting the availability of black men is low; 1.5 million of the 8 million black men in the ages 25-54 are not available for black women, due to incarceration and high mortality

The US is a nation of immigrants

Over 98 percent of the population of the U.S. today is comprised of either immigrants or the descendants of immigrants. The U.S. began as a country in 1776 with a population of around 4 million, plus less than 1 million Native Americans. The U.S. today receives the largest number of international migrants of any other country in the world (next slide). The U.S. has relied on international migration for its growth and development. ..The U.S. today is the 3rd largest country in the world with a total population of 325 million. Donald Trump has focused much of his time, before and after being elected President, on building a wall. He is antiimmigrant. The U.S. is a nation of immigrants

What percentages of mothers in Texas in 2012 were married when giving birth?

Overall, 58 percent of Texas mothers giving birth in 2012 reported being married. But there were large differences by race/ethnic group (see table in next slide): 74% of whites, 34% of blacks and 49% of Hispanics were married when giving birth in 2012.

China in the early years, 1949 and later

PRC in 1949: Very poor and demographically underdeveloped country when Mao established the PRC in 1949 high infant mortality (200 per 1,000 in 1950) low level of urbanization (10% in 1950) high fertility (6 babies per woman in 1950) Mao wanted the population to grow Mao stated that over-population is not a problem in the new China The first census was conducted in 1953; some leaders expressed anxiety about the growth trends and possibilities of the country

oldest woman to give birth

Rajo Devi who gave birth at 70 years old when she delivered a baby girl in India

fertility transition

Shift from high fertility, i.e., natural fertility, with minimal individual control, to low fertility, which is entirely under a woman's (and man's) control. • Involves a delay in childbearing and an earlier end to childbearing (compare the developed countries with the Hutterites). • Frees women and men from unwanted parenthood and allows them to space their children.

Average maximum number of births possible

So the average woman could bear a child every 2.2 years, with the potential of 16 children per woman Why even 16 children per woman is not likely: - Pregnancy is dangerous - many women would die before delivering their 16th child. - Pregnancy requires good nutrition and health care. -However, the next few slides are about a family in Arkansas with 19 children as of 2010 (10 boys and 9 girls).

October 2015 - present: the two-child policy

Starting on January 1, 2016, all Chinese couples are now allowed to have two children. This marks the end of China's one-child policy, which has restricted the majority of Chinese families to only one child for the last 35 years. Will there be a baby boom in China and increase its present TFR from around 1.4 to over 2? NO !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Several surveys in 2010 and later support the idea that Chinese couples don't want more than one child. The majority of surveyed couples tell researchers they only want one child because it was too expensive to raise more. Same results are found in South Korea.

Contraceptive behavior of US women Cont .

The 1st table indicated that 73 % of currently married U.S. women (aged 15-44) are using some method of family planning, with 69 % of them using modern methods. • The most popular method for U.S. married women is female sterilization, followed by oral contraceptives, and male sterilization. In the U.S. the IUD is one of the least favored methods • The next table shows detailed contraceptive behavior data for U.S. women for the year 2006- 2010 About 90% of U.S. women (15-49) report having engaged in sexual intercourse prior to marriage (see next slide for U.S. data, and 2nd next slide for data from China). There is much more premarital intercourse in the U.S. versus in China. • Of U.S. women, what was their use or non-use of contraception in their first premarital intercourse? • Prior to 1980, less than half (43%) used a method. This has risen to 79% for women whose first premarital intercourse occurred between 1999 and 2002 • Of those who used a method at first sexual experience, the condom was by far the most popular method; the pill was 1/3rd as popular as the condom, and surprisingly (at least to me), withdrawal was the 3rd most favored method.

Age specific death rate (ASDR)

The Age-specific Death Rate (ASDR). - Because death varies so considerably with age, demographers prefer to use ASDRs as a more precise measurement of mortality. where n is the width of the age group, and x is the initial year of the age group - ASDRs are sometimes referred to as "M" rates. The ASDR, or nMx is the number of deaths to persons in a specific age group per 1,000 persons in that age group. Death rates are high in the initial year of life, then drop and begin increasing again at around age 40 or so. • When we plot a schedule of nMx values, we produce what demographers refer to as the "age curve of mortality." • It is a U-shaped curve.

CBRs for race/ethnic groups

The CBRs for the race/ethnic groups of Texas are showing an overall decreasing trend similar to that of the total CBR. The Hispanic CBR shows the greatest decline, but remains high. More than half (53.3 percent) of the live births to Texas residents in 2012 were to mothers 20 to 29 years of age, and nearly one-quarter (23.0 percent) to mothers 30 to 34 years old (see table in next slide).Mothers aged 15-19 accounted for 10.6 percent of the births in 2012 (but almost 6% for NH whites, and more than 14% for Hispanics). NH-white women on average were older than NH black women when giving birth, and NH black women were a little older on average than Hispanic women when giving birth

Life expectancy in developed and developing countries

The United Nations has projected that over the next 45 years, life expectancy for the world (which is now around 68 years) will reach 75 years. • Life expectancy in the developed world is projected to increase from its 77 years in 2006 to 82 years by mid-century, versus 74 years for the less developed countries of the world. • Figure 5.7 shows actual and expected changes in life expectancy between 1950 and 2050 for the world and its major regions.

Name of China

The Western name of "China" is thought to come from the Portuguese as far back as the 16th century, but was popularized in the West in the mid 19th century. There are a lot of stories about the source of the Western name of "China." A popular one, and the one that I hold to, is the Chinese word "Qin" (秦), the name of the dynasty, the Qin Dynasty, that ruled China from 221 to 207 BC and also unified China; the Qin had existed as a state for many centuries prior.

Why is fertility so much more difficult to study than mortality?

The entire population is not subject to the risk of having a birth fertility is typically measured only in relation to the mother the event of birth occurs to both a child and parents; hence characteristics of child as well as of the parents are needed. the same person may have more than one birth, but only dies once there are minimum and maximum ages at which men and women are physiologically capable of reproduction fertility behavior is more influenced by preferences, motivations, social status and other social variables births affect only the intial age of the age distribution, whereas deaths affect the entire age distribution

Education and Cohabitation correlation

The more education a woman has, the less likely she will have ever cohabited. In 2009-10, 74% of women with less than a high school degree have cohabited., 57% for those with one to three years of college and 50% with four or more years of college

How many floating migrants?

The number of floaters in China reached 11 million in 1982, approached 30 million in 1990, increased to 80-100 million by 1995, and to over 140 million in 2000, to over 170 million in 2005, to over 220 million in 2010, to over 250 million in 2012. This is the largest stream of peace-time human mobility in recorded history.

OK, but why won't Trump's wall keep out EWIs? Why won't increased border surveillance keep out, or reduce the number of EWIs? The answer is counterfactual.

The stereotype of the undocumented immigrant crossing the Mexican-U.S. border no longer matches the contemporary realities of immigration. Over the decades most of the EWIs who entered the U.S. over the southern border from Mexico were what demographers refer to as circular migrants. The came to the U.S. mostly for low-level jobs in agriculture and construction and related areas, stayed for several months, maybe a year, earned their money and returned home. Many were seasonal agricultural workers from Mexico who, for instance, followed harvests from California's Central Valley to Washington's Yakima Valley Increased border enforcement has seriously disrupted the circular flow of workers who used to come and go, mainly just to California and Texas. Princeton University's Douglas Massey has noted that increased border surveillance "has raised the costs of undocumented border crossing, requiring the undocumented immigrants to stay longer in the U.S. so to make the trip profitable." With greater border enforcement and surveillance, the costs of crossing the border have increased. As a result, the migrants have minimized the border crossing, "not by remaining in Mexico but by staying in the United States." Simply put, the migrants are no longer circular migrants; they are now being transformed into a permanently settled population of unauthorized immigrants. Militarizing the border has been associated with an increase, rather than a decrease, in the number of unauthorized immigrants. Militarization has transformed undocumented migration into the U.S. from a circular flow of migrants into, and out of, a few states, to a permanent settlement of migrants in virtually all the states of the continental U.S. Trump's wall will make this relationship even stronger. The specter of a Trump's wall will cause the would-be circular migrants to settle and to stay in the U.S., and not return to their homes in Mexico and other countries in Central America.

NSFG presents data on:

The three sexuality dimensions of identification (I), behavior (B) and sexual attraction (A1(s)) 1. self-identification: how does the person identify his/her sexual orientation? 2. Behavior: how does the person behave sexually? (same sex, opposite sex, both sexes, no sex behavior) 3. Attraction: to whom is the person sexually attracted

live births to Texas residents

There were 382,438 live births to Texas residents in 2012, an increase of 1.4 percent (5,164 more births) from 2011, and an increase of 1.3 percent (5,064 more births) from 2003. The CBR for 2012 of 14.7 births for every 1,000 persons in the population is the lowest ever recorded CBR for Texas. It was 15.3 in 2010 (the US is around 13). Texas is now having over 380K births each year (382K births in 2012, which was one of the largest numbers ever). But the Texas CBR for 2012 of 14.7 is the all-time low; it was 14.7 also in 2011. In the mid-1950s, during the peak of the US Baby Boom, the CBR in Texas was over 28/1,000

What about the other 6 to 7 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S.? Who are they? How did they enter the United States? Where are they from?

These are the so-called "illegal" immigrants everyone refers to. They are formally referred to by demographers and by immigration officials as EWIs, or persons who "entered without inspection." They entered the U.S. without detection or used fraudulent documents when crossing the border. Virtually all of the EWIs entered at the U.S.-Mexico border, and until recently most of them were from Mexico

Fertility in China, Korea and Taiwan

These countries have experienced the most rapid fertility reductions in recent decades • In China, the trends reflect the effects of both social and economic development and the influences of the family limitation policy • They are completing their demographic transitions from high rates of fertility and mortality to low rates. All three are demographically developed countries. TFRs in 2016: • China (official TFR = 1.6 - it may be as low as 1.4!!!!!) • S. Korea and Taiwan, both at 1.2 (lowest in the world) To place into perspective the rapidity of Taiwan's and China's fertility reductions, we need only consider the considerably much longer time it took for the fertility rate of the United States to drop from a high level of around 7 to its present level of just slightly below 2.0. In the year of 1800 the TFR in the U.S. was estimated to be at a level of 7.0. It took 135 years, until 1935, for the TFR to decline to the replacement level; and between 1935 and 2010, owing to the post World War II baby boom, the TFR has fallen only from 2.1 to just below 2.0. China's and Taiwan's reductions fell from 7.0 and 6.0, respectively to levels significantly below replacement in around 40 years; the TFR in 2010 in the U.S. is still much higher than that in China and Taiwan.

The family: introduction

Up to around the 17th century, marriages were used mainly to gain ancestral legitimacy and to establish military and commercial ties. Polygyny was banned around the 12th century and extended families declined in number . By the end of the 18th century in Western Europe, the "love match" became normative, with the husband providing for the family and the wife focusing on the family life (Ozzie and Harriet type of family) In the U.S. during the colonial era, there were no sharply divided roles of the husband and the wife because each person worked together as a unit. The societal and structural changes in Europe and America such as industrialization, urbanization, productivity and market economy affected extended families into nuclear families Life expectancy at birth increased from 74 in the 19th century to around 83 as of 2012 Marriage and childbearing are no longer defining events and activities of women's lives.

Essentialist definition

a homosexual response to all three questions heterosexuals and bisexuals are defined in a similar way

Marriage and family today

drastic increases in percentages of people cohabiting before marriage. 1965-74: 11% of women aged 19-44 reported cohabiting prior to marriage 1985-89: 46% 1995-99: 59% 2005-09: 66%

Age specific fertility rates (ASFR)

five year age groups are used to calculate each ASFR usually low to moderate in the 15-19 age group, highest in the 20s, and then declines to moderate levels for women in their 30s and very low for women over age 39

"I population"

intersex population. I person is one whose biological sex is inconsistent across the five biological definitions. no one sexuality for I persons

"T population"

is the transgender population. a T person identifies with a gender other that that assigned at birth, or identifies with no gender. There is no one sexuality for T persons.

General fertility rate

the general fertility rate helps to address the major faults of the CBR by restricting the denominator to women of childbearing age where the numerator is the number of births in year z and the denominator is the midyear population of females in year z, aged 15-49

Social Constructionist

the social constructionist definitions of a homosexual is a person who gives a homosexual response to any one or more of the three questions dealing with sexual behavior, sexual attraction and self-identification.

Total Fertility Rate

which is a standardized rate whose values are particularly useful in interpreting the cumulative fertility implied by a given set of ASFRs. The TFR summarizes a hypothetical fertility history analogous to the hypothetical mortality history of a cross-sectional life table. It estimates the total number of live births 1,000 women would have if they all lived through their entire reproductive period and were subject to a given set of ASFRs. The TFR reports the average number of live births among 1,000 women exposed to a certain schedule of ASFRs, assuming no women died during the childbearing years. calculated by summing the ASFRs and multiplying the result by the width of the age interval of the ASFR's The number of births that a hypothetical group of 1,000 women would produce during their reproductive lifetime i - the width in years useful in interpreting the cumulative fertility implied by a given set of ASFRs In 2016, the World TFR was 2.5; it was 2.6 for the LDCs (and 2.9 for the LDCs excluding China) and 1.7 for the MDCs. TFRs in 2016 ranged from a high of 7.6 (Niger) to a low of 1.2 (South Korea, Romania, Singapore and Taiwan). The TFR in 2016 for the US was 1.8, for China 1.6, and for Mexico 2.2.

What are the three processes of demographic changes?

• Fertility, Mortality, and Migration • Either + or - fertility • Either + or - mortality • Either + or - migration • Population Policies are not far away from our daily life.

Geographic concentration of floaters

• Floaters come mainly from the rural counties of the inner provinces to the richer coastal provinces • Seven provinces send most of the floaters: - Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Jiangxi, Anhui, and Zhejiang • Highest concentration of floaters is from counties with incomes at about the average for rural counties • The very poor counties do not send many floaters to the cities

Remittances

• Floaters earn wages in the cities that are several magnitudes greater than those earned by their countrymen in the home villages • They send as much as half of their salaries back to their home village • The first purpose of remittances is to improve (and sometime to build) housing in the rural areas

abortion in the US

• In 2005, there were an estimated 1.21 million legal abortions performed in the U.S., a decrease from the 1.31 million performed in 2000 • Abortions became legal in the United States in 1973 when the Supreme Court in the Roe v. Wade • The abortion rate was at its low of 16.3/1,000 in 1973; the rate increased to a high of 29.3 in 1981, and has dropped steadily since to 19.4 in 2005, and 16.9 in 2011. Every year, around 2 percent of U.S. women in the childbearing ages have an abortion. Hence, nearly half (47 %) of all U.S. women in the childbearing ages have had one or more abortions at some time in their life. Of the women in the U.S. having abortions in 2005, half of them were under age 25; women 20-24 obtained 33 percent of all abortions and teenagers obtained 17 percent of the abortions. More than one-third (37 percent) of all abortions were obtained by black women, 34 percent by Anglo women, 22 percent by Hispanic women, and 8 percent by women of other races. Regarding the religions of women having abortions in the United States in 2005, 43 percent of them were Protestants and 27 percent were Catholics.

Why 1.5 child policy?

• It allowed rural parents to have a second child if the first was a daughter. • Son preference and family inherit. • Therefore, about half of all parents in China were allowed to have a second child.

The Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)

• Mao's last decade - from 1966 until his death in 1976 - saw a domestic political struggle that convulsed China, constantly amazed the outside world, and achieved appalling destruction. • The citizenry was passive in politics and obedient to authority. • Mao was losing power. He was blamed for the disasters of the GLF. • He feared a revival of the ruling-class domination of the villagers. • He launched the Cultural Revolution in 1966 Mao launches the Cultural Revolution • Mao initially pursued his goals through a massive mobilization of the country's urban youths. • They were organized into groups called the Red Guards, and Mao ordered the party and the army not to suppress the movement.

Pronatalist VS Antinatalist

• Regarding fertility policies, prior to the twentieth century, most fertility policies were concerned with increasing population growth, that is, they were pronatalist. • China's policies since the 1950s have been antinatalist.

Dr. Song Jian (1931 --)

• Song was born in ShanDong Province in 1931. • Fluent in Chinese, English and Russian, Song Jian has an engineering degree (1958) and a science degree (1960) from the NBT, Moscow; and he has a Doctor of Science degree (1990) from the Moscow National Technical University. • He was Vice-Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and President of the Chinese Academy of Engineering

Great Leap Forward (GLF)

• The Great Leap Forward movement was launched by Mao to allow China to catch up overnight to the western countries. The GLF movement was unrealistic and eventually failed. • Between 1958 and 1960, as many as 40 million people lost their lives through malnutrition and famine because of the policies imposed upon them by the CCP. • Though directly due to chairman Mao, the GLF also expressed the ardor of many millions of rural people • The result of the Great Leap Forward was a severe economic crisis. In 1958 industrial output did in fact "leap" by 55 percent, and the agricultural sector gathered in a good harvest. • In 1959, 1960, and 1961, however, adverse weather conditions, improperly constructed water control projects, and other misallocations of resources that had occurred during the overly centralized communization movement resulted in disastrous declines in agricultural output. • As many as 40 (estimated) million people died during the years of the GLF, 1959-1961.

Networking of floaters

• The floating population is highly networked • 80 percent of the floaters obtained their jobs through informal networks of friends and relatives • 14 percent obtained their jobs through labor contractors • Most of the floaters worked in destinations with 20 or more people from the same village and 60 percent lived with these villagers