Unit IV.CB Mod 3 - Passage Analysis (Illusion of Truth Effect, Fundamental Attribution Error, Representativeness Heuristic)

*Thought Process:* *Belief:* People have a belief about how probable something is relative to something else. *Kind of belief:* It's a belief about how probable something is. *Basis for belief:* The belief violates laws of probability, and so isn't based on probabilistic reasoning. Linda *sounds like* a feminist. Perhaps the basis for the belief is that Linda is a *typical example* of a feminist. *Answer:* People's thinking may be affected by the Representativeness Heuristic. The representativeness heuristic is the tendency to assess the probability of a situation by comparing it to what we think is the most relevant or typical example of a particular event or object, and in so doing ignore relevant probability information. In this case, Linda sounds like a *typical example* of a feminist. So people think the description that fits the typical example is more likely to be true while ignoring general relevant probability information (a conjunction of two things can't be more likely than just one of those things).

*Consider the following description:* Linda is 31 years old, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. *Now consider the following:* On the basis of the above passage, people tend to say that it's more likely that Linda is a bank teller who is active in the feminist movement than merely a bank teller. But this violates the laws of probability (A conjunction of two independent things is never more probable than either one on its own.) *What cognitive bias(es) may be affecting people's thinking? Explain your answer.*

*Thought Process:* *Belief:* Bruno is shy... and that's why he's doing what he's doing (being a wallflower). *Kind of Belief:* This is a judgment about behavior, or the best explanation for a particular behavior. *Basis for Belief:* Observation and personal judgment. *Answer:* Jessica's judgment may be an instance of the fundamental attribution error. The fundamental attribution error is the tendency for an observer, when interpreting and explaining the behavior of another person, to underestimate the relevance of the situation (external stuff) and to overestimate the relevance of the person's character or disposition or intentions (internal stuff). In this case, Jessica assumes that the best explanation for Bruno's behavior is that *he is shy* (a claim about his character or personality or disposition, about what kind of person he is). She may be overestimating the relevant of character and underestimating the relevance of situational factors. For example, maybe Bruno has a twisted ankle or a headache.

*Consider the following scenario:* Jessica is at a lively party. She notices Bruno on the other side of the room, leaning against the wall, not talking to anyone. She judges that Bruno is shy. *What cognitive bias(es) may be affecting Jessica's thinking? Explain your answer.*

*Thought Process:* *Belief:* Mohammed believe Hristo is careless. He believes something about Hristo himself is the cause of the accident. *Kind of Belief:* This is a judgment about behavior, about what's responsible for a particular behavior or outcome. *Basis for Belief:* Observation and personal judgment. *Answer:* Mohammed's judgment may be an instance of the fundamental attribution error. The fundamental attribution error is the tendency for an observer, when interpreting and explaining the behavior of another person, to underestimate the relevance of the situation (external stuff) and to overestimate the relevance of the person's character or disposition or intentions (internal stuff). In this case, Mohammed believes that the best explanation of Hristo's behavior is that Hristo (is the kind of person who) is careless. He may be overestimating the relevance of features of character (such as being careless), and underestimating the relevance of situational factors. For example, the coffee cup lid may have been loose, or the barista may have let go too early, etc. (Of course we can't know for sure what the cause of the spill was, or the real basis for Mohammed's particular judgment in this particular case. But given what we know about human judgment and the fundamental attribution error, this situation is exactly the kind of situation with F.A.E. could be relevant.) --- Importantly, this effect involves interpreting and explaining people's behavior, and over/under estimating internal/external explanations for that behavior (and not just the overestimation of one kind of thing and the underestimation of another kind of thing... emphasis on explaining behavior.)

*Consider the following scenario:* Mohammed and Hristo are standing in a cafe, each receiving a cup of hot coffee. Mohammed watches as Hristo accidentally spills his coffee all over the countertop. Mohammed judges that Hristo is a bit careless and needs to slow down to avoid future mistakes. *What cognitive bias(es) may be affecting Mohammed's thinking? Explain your answer.*

*Thought Process:* *Belief:* Jack is more likely to be an engineer. *Kind of Belief:* This is a belief about how probable something is. *Basis for Belief:* Possibly: Jack fits the stereotype of an engineer and doesn't fit the stereotype of a lawyer. *Answer:* People's thinking may be affected by the Representativeness Heuristic. The representativeness heuristic is the tendency to assess the probability of a situation by comparing it to what we think is the most relevant or typical example of a particular event or object, and in so doing ignore relevant probability information. In this case, Jack fits the stereotype (sounds like a typical example of) an engineer. However, other information relevant to figuring out the comparative probability may have been ignored. There are way more lawyers at the party. This information should inform probability judgments. Assume 50% of the engineers at the party fit the description and only 15% of lawyers fit the description (because even if stereotypes are true-ish, they don't apply to everyone in the group, or even most people in the group). In this case, it's more likely that Jack is a lawyer.

*Consider the following scenario:* There is a hip and happening party going on. At this party there are 20 engineers and 80 lawyers. Jack is one of the people at the party. Jack is a 45 year old man. He is married and has four children. He is generally conservative, careful, and ambitious. He shows now interest in political and social issues and spends most of his free time on his many hobbies, which include home carpentry, sailing, and mathematical puzzles. *Question: Is Jack an engineer or a lawyer?* Many people respond that Jack is more likely to be an engineer. *What cognitive bias(es) may be affecting people's thinking? Explain your answer.*

*Thought Process:* *Belief:* This random trivia statement is true. *Basis for belief:* confidence in repeated statements increases. Since there's no reason to think they should be increasingly confident that random trivia statements are true, their confidence seems to be based on the familiarity of the statement. *Answer:* The participants' behavior is best explained by the illusion of truth effect--i.e., tendency to believe information is true as a result of mere exposure / familiarity. In this case, the participants have no reason to have increased confidence in the twenty repeated statements. (It's possible they remembered the statements from each session then went home and researched them, but this seems very unlikely, especially since they didn't even have Google back then.) The best explanation for their increased confidence in the truth of these twenty repeated statements is that they have increased in familiarity (by being repeated across the trials).

*Consider the following study:* ​In a 1977 study researchers presented a group of college students with lists of sixty plausible statements, some of them true and some of them false. The same group of students were presented with such lists on three different occasions. The second list was distributed two weeks after the first, and the third two weeks after that. Twenty statements appeared on all three lists; the other forty items on each list were unique to that list. Participants were asked how confident they were of the truth or falsity of the statements, which concerned matters about which they were unlikely to know anything. (For example, "The first air force base was launched in New Mexico." Or "Basketball became an Olympic discipline in 1925.") Specifically, the participants were asked to grade their belief in the truth of each statement on a scale of one to seven. While the participants' confidence in the truth of the non-repeated statements remained steady, their confidence in the truth of the repeated statements increased from the first to the second and second to third sessions. *What cognitive bias could explain this finding?*

*Thought Process:* *Steve's Belief:* humans use only 10% of their brains. *Basis for belief:* Unclear. Steve himself isn't sure. However, this is a thing that's commonly (erroneously) claimed. Thus, Steve could believe this is true because it sounds familiar. *Answer:* Steve's belief may be affected by the illusion of truth effect. The illusion of truth effect is the tendency to believe information is true as a result of mere exposure to it. Since it's commonly repeated that humans use only 10% of their brains, this claim may feel familiar (think cognitive ease) and, thus, true.

*Consider the following:* Steve believes that humans use only 10% of their brains, though he can't really remember where he heard that. *What cognitive bias(es) may be affecting Steve's thinking? Explain your answer.*

*Thought process:* Belief: The easier-to-read statement is more likely to be true. *Basis for belief:* ? Unclear. However, if the set up is careful, the legibility of the font (and, thus, cognitive ease) seems to be the basis. *Answer:* The students' belief may be affected by the illusion of truth effect. The illusion of truth effect is the tendency to believe information is true as a result of mere exposure / familiarity. Things that facilitate cognitive ease, e.g., a clear, legible font, may feel good / familiar and, thus, true.

*Consider the following:* Students are shown two claims (both false): One in an easy-to-read font, one in a less-easy-to-read font. Students tend to judge the easier-to-read statement as true. *What cognitive bias(es) may be affecting the students' thinking? Explain your answer.*