Campaigns Final
Auter & Fine: Social Media Campaigning: What is the research question?
Does social media campaigning (mobilization and fundraising on facebook) vary by candidate/campaign?
Reading Question W10: Fact Checking: What is the research question or main purpose of the study?
Fact-checking has become a mainstay of modern political campaigns. However, does it influence voters?
Schaffner et al.: What is the research question?
Do sexist or racist attitudes explain the education gap in 2016?
Reading Question W12: Fake News: How do the authors define fake news?
-"We define 'fake news' to be news articles that are intentionally and verifiably false, and could mislead readers." -"we conceptualize fake news as distorted signals uncorrelated with the truth." -Fake news is cheaper to provide than precise signals, because consumers cannot costlessly infer accuracy, and because consumers may enjoy partisan news -Fake news may generate utility for some consumers, but it also imposes private and social costs by making it more difficult for consumers to infer the true state of the world -for example, by making it more difficult for voters to infer which electoral candidate they prefer.
Campaign Finance: What is a political action committee (PAC)? How did PACs originate?
-An organization formed to influence elections that raise and contributes money to candidates and parties. Origination: 1. FECA banned corporations, unions and associations from making direct contributions to candidates. 2. Required such groups to form PACs to make contributions to candidates. -Non-economic groups established PACs to ease disclosure requirements.
Reading Question W11: Microtargeting and Young voters: What do the authors find?
-As you age you are less likely to be in the no data group. -propensity scores are based largely on demographics. The article suggests something potentially problematic in the future. The young people will soon become a 30-45 group and they will be less likely to vote than older peoples group because they are not targeted through micro-targeting and connecting with parties.
Campaign messages: How do candidates craft their campaign message?
-Campaigns must project a theme that frames the choice to play to the candidate's strengths. -The focus of the message can be *Positional-policy concerns. *Valence-Personal qualities such as compassion, integrity etc.
Money in presidential campaigns: How has frontloading in nomination contests influenced the role of money?
-Candidates must campaign simultaneously in multiple states making $ critical. -Disadvantages non-frontrunners who lack the time to build momentum or the funds to fight multiple contests.
Role of money: Describe the fundraising patterns by type of candidate in recent congressional elections.
-Challengers do not win without money and lots of it. -Incumbents do not spend a lot of money when they are sure they will win, and they spend a ton of money when they think they might lose.
Reading Question W12: Fake News: Why is social media a likely purveyor of fake news?
-Content can be relayed among users with no significant third-party filtering, fact-checking, or editorial judgment. -An individual user with no track record or reputation can in some cases reach as many readers as Fox News, CNN, or the New York Times.
Hooghe and Dassonneville: What data do the authors use to explore their expectations? How is the dependent variable measured? What about the independent variables?
-Data from CCES. -Dependent Variable- Results confirmed in measures that are dichotomous. -Independent Variable: Responses coded to scale: political trust, satisfaction with Dem, Anti-immigrant sentiments, Racist Resentment.
Congressional contributions: Describe the different ways the political parties can contribute to candidates.
-Direct contributions to candidates are limited. Coordinated spending- limited (varies by state population) and includes input from candidate. Independent spending- unlimited and not coordinated with candidates. Issue advocacy-unlimited and no express advocacy. Contributions to electoral efforts extend well beyond actual monetary support.
Campaign advertising: negative advertising: How effective are negative ads?
-Effective ads are more memorable. -They increase campaign knowledge. -Reduce support for the target. -They can lead to a backlash effect, reducing support for the sponsor. -Hurt attitudes towards the political system.
Money in presidential campaigns: Why is money important in presidential contests, especially nomination contests?
-Ensures campaigns have funds for traveling, ads, and running local organizations. -Sends a signal that a candidate is viable and a front-runner. -Enables candidates to raise more money (i.e. hold fundraisers). -In the past candidates accepted federally-funded matching funds for the primary and public funds for the general election. *No longer accepted because of eligibility requirements for the primary and strict limits on spending in both contests.
Role of money: how important is money to congressional elections?
-Ensures campaigns to have funds for traveling, ads, and running local organizations -Sends a signal that a candidate is viable and a front-runner -Enables candidates to raise more money - ie hold fundraisers
Reading Question W12: Fake News: What do the authors find in terms of exposure to fake news and belief in fake news?
-Republicans were not generally worse at inference: instead, they tended to be more credulous of both true and false articles. -Democrats are overall more likely to correctly identify true versus false articles -Three correlations tend to be statistically significant: 1: people who spend more time consuming media, people with higher education, and older people have more accurate beliefs about news. -people who report that social media were their most important sources of election news were more likely both to correctly believe true headlines and to incorrectly believe false headlines. -The association of education with correct beliefs should be highlighted.
Reading Question W12: Fake News: Where do fake news articles originate? What are the motivations for production of these articles?
-Fake news articles originate on several types of websites. Some sites are established entirely to print intentionally fabricated and misleading articles, IE = denverguardian.com. -The names of these sites are often chosen to resemble those of legitimate news organizations. -satirical sites contain articles that might be interpreted as factual when seen out of context, IE = wtoe5news.com. -Still other sites, IE = endingthefed.com, print a mix between factual articles, often with a partisan slant, along with some false articles. -Websites supplying fake news tend to be short-lived, and many that were important in the run-up to the 2016 election no longer exist MOTIVATIONS: 1. pecuniary (for profit): news articles that go viral on social media can draw significant advertising revenue when users click to the original site. This appears to have been the main motivation for most of the producers whose identities have been revealed. IE= Paul Horner produced pro-Trump stories for profit, despite claiming to be personally opposed to Trump (Dewey 2016). 2. ideological. Some fake news providers seek to advance candidates they favor. The Romanian man who ran endingthefed.com, for example, claims that he started the site mainly to help Donald Trump's campaign (Townsend 2016). Other providers of right-wing fake news actually say they identify as left-wing and wanted to embarrass those on the right by showing that they would credulously circulate false stories (Dewey 2016; Sydell 2016).
Describe the following court cases: Buckley v. Valeo (1976)
-Found the "limited independent spending by groups and individuals" part of FECA unconstitutional. -Found the "limited candidates' use of their own money" part of FECA unconstitutional.
Describe the following court cases: Colorado Republican Federal Campaign Committee vs. FEC (1996).
-Found the "limited independent spending by parties" part of FECA unconstitutional
Campaign strategies: Identify the most effective campaign techniques, especially for challengers.
-Gimmicks can provide a candidate with free media coverage. -Advertising (TV, Radio, Internet, Direct mail, etc.) tends to be an effective strategy for conveying the candidate's message. -Personal campaigning remains popular, especially with challengers.
Auter & Fine: Social Media Campaigning: Describe the mobilizing potential of social media.
-Gives the ability to harness social networks that already exist for cascading contact.
Congressional contributions: What are the sources of congressional campaign funding?
-Individuals -Self-financing -PACs -Parties -Other Congresspersons
Campaign messages: What do incumbents needs to emphasize with their message?
-Message should emphasize experience, seniority, and constituency service (pork & casework). -Message should also respond to the strengths, weaknesses, and tactics of the challenger.
Campaign messages: What do challengers need to emphasize with their messages?
-Needs to undermine support for incumbent and convince voters of the challenger's strengths. -Undermining support for the incumbent requires identifying weaknesses. *Scandals: personal or professional. *Specific roll call votes. *Partisan/ideological voting record. *Tie the incumbent to an unpopular president.
Auter & Fine: Social Media Campaigning: What do the authors find for offline mobilization? What do the authors find for online mobilization? What do the authors find for fundraising?
-Offline Mobilization: Closer to Election Day, Use by Challengers, -Online Mobilization: Closer to Election Day, Competitive Races, Use by Underdogs -Fundraising: Closer to Election Day, Competitive Races, Use by Challengers
What factors contribute to the incumbency advantage: How do political parties contribute to the incumbency advantage?
-Party discipline is lightly applied in the Congress. -Party leaders recognize that reelection is key, so they don't put as much pressure on members to support policies of the party leadership. -Parties lack control over electoral nomination- with the creation of party primaries, parties lost their ability to make credible electoral threats.
Sides et al.: Why are voters more likely to pay attention and be susceptible to campaign messages in a primary contest than in a general election contest?
-Primary voters are faced with more choices, cannot rely on party identification (general election heuristics) - have to respond to campaign messages which are tailored for this purpose.
Reading Question W12: Fake News: The authors offer a simple model of supply and demand. Describe this model (actions of media firms and consumers) and discuss how fake news fits in to the model. Why is social media particularly conducive to fake news?
-SUPPLY: -DEMAND: because consumers cannot distinguish them from higher-quality outlets, and also because their reports are tailored to deliver psychological utility to consumers on either the left or right of the political spectrum
When incumbents lose: what motivates challengers to compete against incumbent candidates?
-Some inexperienced challengers do not realize their abysmal chances. -The idea that "challengers sometimes win, why not me?" -Candidacy is an end in itself: (real estate agent) *provides some opposition to the incumbent. *represent the party *ideological concerns *loss does not cause any serious personal or career damage *may set the stage for future political efforts. *increases the chance of professionally profitable contacts. -Fulfills a sense of obligation. -Ego boost.
Schaffner et. al: Describe the education gap. What two explanations of the gap do the authors test?
-There is a large gap between college-educated and non-college educated whites. Explanations: -White working-class Americans left behind during Obama administration, therefore Trump's populist message resonated. -Trump's willingness to make explicitly racist and sexist appeals (plus post-obama racism, Clinton sexism) made racism and sexism salient- resonated with less educated whites.
What factors contribute to the incumbency advantage: What resources have members of Congress allocated themselves?
-Travel -Office -Staff -Communication- i.e. long-distance telephone service, radio, television, the frank-name given to free use of the US mail for sending communications to constituents.
Auter & Fine: Social Media Campaigning: Which types of candidates are likely to rely on social media? Why?
-Underdogs -Challengers -Tea party candidates -Competitive -Non-mainstream candidates
Reading W9: Why Super PACs: La Raja argues that the campaign finance system is 'wholly unsuited to how the party system developed'? Explain what he has in mind.
-candidate-centered regulatory framework will encourage money to be spent outside the system 1. campaign finance system loses transparency through use of Super PACs and 501cs, which have less regulations and are driven by ideological factions of the party -corporations support limits because they cannot be pushed into giving large sums 1. Contribution limits for all committees should be restored to the FECA original value (diminishes incentive to work outside the regulatory framework) 2. Incentivize using parties because they're transparent, familiar to the American voter, they have a diverse voter/donor base, and the have accountability through levels of officeholders
Auter & Fine: Social Media Campaigning: What are the advantages of using social media over traditional media?
-direct access to potential voters -costs less in money/time. -Ability to respond quickly.
Money in presidential campaigns: What are public funds? How much can the major party candidates receive? Can minor party candidates receive public funds? Why do few candidates accept public funds?
-federally supplied funding for the general election -minor parties can receive public funds if they receive 5% of the vote nationwide in the previous election -few candidates accept public funds because it restricts their ability to raise other funds -major party candidates can receive up to $20 million plus the cost of living adjustment (COLA)
Money in presidential campaigns: What are matching funds? Why do few candidates accept matching funds?
-federally-funded matching funds for the primary and public funds for the general election -no longer accepted because of eligibility requirements for the primary and strict limits on spending in both contests
What factors contribute to the incumbency advantage: How do incumbents discourage challengers?
-incumbents win easily because they often face inexperienced challengers lacking financial and organizational resources. -Politically skilled and ambitious non-incumbents follow rational career strategies and wait until there is an open seat.
Reading Question W11: Microtargeting and Young voters: Why are young voters likely to have low propensity to vote scores?
-missing voter history. They have little party activity. -have residential instability/ mobility-> which makes them hard to find and less connected to the community. -cynical
Reading Question W12: Fake News: Describe the data.
-the average US adult read and remembered on the order of one or perhaps several fake news articles during the election period, with higher exposure to pro-Trump articles than pro-Clinton articles. -Spenkuch and Toniatti (2016) show that exposing voters to one additional television campaign ad changes vote shares by approximately 0.02 percentage points. This suggests that if one fake news article were about as persuasive as one TV campaign ad, the fake news in our database would have changed vote shares by an amount on the order of hundredths of a percentage point. This is much smaller than Trump's margin of victory in the pivotal states on which the outcome depended **look to graphs in Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow reading
Reading W9: Why Super PACs: According to La Raja, what was FECA's widespread failure? Explain.
-widespread failure to accommodate inflation -contribution limits didn't increase with cost of living increases -means that the value of a contribution to a party is lowered and incentivizes contributing through other organizations -important because party contributions usually fall within the bounds of the original FECA's guidelines.
Sides et al.: According to the authors, what three factors contributed to Trump's victory over his Republican opponents?
1. Factionalism within the elites (wasnt apart of the elites squaa) 2. Trump's domination of media coverage 3. Trump's message to Republican voters (economic liberalism + immigration hawking)
Reading W9: Why Super PACs: How have parties responded in light of this failure of the campaign finance system to accommodate parties?
1. Party leaders leaned more heavily on members of Congress to raise "hard" money for the party-- able to happen due to hyper-partisanship and high stakes competition for majority control of government 2. Create Leadership PACs to donate to colleagues-- done because individual goals are tied more to party and ideologically extreme candidates in safe seats can raise money for the moderates in the party so they will take risky party votes 3. Use nonparty campaign organizations/Super PACs
Mobilization, participation, and political change (Hansen): First, describe how each of these factors has changed overtime.
1. Two Party Competitive Politics: both parties have a realistic chance to win the presidency and control the Congress. 2. Polarization: divide between the parties has grown as the parties internally have become more united. 3. Changes in Regulation: -It has become easier to register and to vote overtime. -Campaign finance rules have changed dramatically overtime.
Reading Question W12: Mobilization, participation, and political change (Hansen): Hansen focuses on the role of three factors—two-party competitive politics, polarization, and changes in regulation—in changing the motivation, ability, and opportunity for elites to use mobilization to further their agendas.
1. Two Party Competitive politics 2. Polarization 3. Changes in regulation
Define the Incumbency advantage: How do we measure the incumbency advantage?
1. Two Party Vote: with the average percentage of the two-party vote won by incumbent candidates in contested elections. 2. The Slurge Regardless of measurement type, the pattern is the incumbents win by huge margins.
Mobilization, participation, and political change (Hansen): Second, discuss how each change in the political environment contributes to elite's use of voter mobilization.
1. Two party competitive politics: Competition increases mobilization efforts, especially direct or ground mobilization. 2. Polarization: Has led to a shift from a persuasion strategy to a mobilization strategy. 3. Changes in regulation: -The first has made mobilization more important but more costly. -The latter has made voter mobilization less likely, but financial mobilization more likely.
Campaign Finance: Describe the provisions of FECA, 1972.
1. created the Federal Election Commission to regulate spending in federal elections 2. required disclosure of sources of contributions 3. set limits on contributions to candidates from parties, groups, and individuals 4. interest to prevent corruption with directly giving to candidates- created and limited activities of PACs 5. set limits on contributions to parties from individuals/groups and set limits on contributions to groups from individuals/parties
Reading Question W10: Fact Checking: Describe the evolution of fact checking in political campaigns.
90's - media starts checking, duty to truth 00's - websites emerge, more articles
Congressional contributions: Describe the different contribution strategies for PACs.
Access-oriented: ensure lobbyists can meet with policymakers (corporations). *contribute to key party leaders, committee chairs. Ideologically-oriented: try to influence the composition of Congress (unions and citizen groups) *contribute to like-minded candidates in close races.
Campaign Finance: Describe the provisions of BCRA.
Also called the McCain-Feingold Act 1. increased contribution limits for individuals 2. eliminated soft money contributions to parties 3. raised contribution limits for candidates with wealthy opponents and limited self-financing (ruled unconstitutional in Davis v. FEC) 4. electioneering issue ads (ads that mention the candidate near an election) must be paid for with hard money and cannot be paid for by corporations, unions, and associations (ruled unconstitutional for noneconomic groups in FEC v. Wisconsin Right to Life [2007] and economic groups in Citizens United v. FEC [2010]).
Money in the 2016 presidential campaign: Describe the sources of contributions in 2016.
Amount raised by candidates: $1.5 billion Amount raised by super PACs: $618 million IV: Partisanship Top 3 fundraisers: Hillary for America, Friends of Hillary, and Donald J Trump for President (all campaign) Top 3 SuperPAC: Priorities USA Action (Clinton), Future 45 (against Clinton), and Rebuilding America Now (Trump)
Hooghe and Dassonneville: What do the authors find? Does racist resentment or anti-immigrant attitudes determine vote choice? What about political trust? Do these factors vary in their effects across different partisan groups?
Anti-immigrant Sentiments and Racist Resentments were both strong predictors of Trump votes. Leaning Republicans more affected by AS, Strong Republicans RR, Overall Stability.
Vote choice: What are candidate characteristics? Describe the candidate characteristics in 2016.
Candidate affect: our overall feelings toward the candidate. Trait assessments: characteristics we attribute to a given candidate
Campaign advertising: Negative advertising: Why do candidates use negative ads?
Candidates use negative campaign ads because campaign consutants believe negative advertising works (hurts the target and helps the sponsor). The logic: negative ads undermine the opposition, and voters vote based on trust. Negative ads can ruin trust opportunities for opposition.
Role of money: what does money buy for challengers and incumbents?
Challengers: Allows challengers to 'buy' name recognition and media attention. Incumbents: Enables incumbents to convey a new message or 'rebrand' themselves.
Money in the 2016 presidential campaign: For what did the candidates use their money in 2016?
Clinton: 58.2% Media, 18.9% Salaries, 9.3% Administrative Trump: 58.5% Media, 16.6% Administrative, 7% Strategy and Research
Money in the 2016 presidential campaign: Describe the pattern of independent expenditures in 2016.
Clinton: top 3 independent expenditures-- 1. Future45 (opposed) 2. DNC Services Corp (supported) 3. 45 Cmte (opposed) Trump: 1. Priorities USA Action (opposed) 2. Great America PAC (supported) 3. Republican National Cmte (supported)
What factors contribute to the incumbency advantage: What role does the committee system in congress play?
Committees remain the place where the real work of Congress gets done. Committees provide members with distributive benefits and informational benefits. Distributive benefits= provide benefits to districts/states; members defer to each others' requests for particular benefits (logrolling). Informational benefits= committees allow members to specialize and provide specialized knowledge to the body as a whole.
Campaign advertising: What are contrast or comparison ads? Give a few examples.
Comparison ads contrast candidates on policies or experience to the advantage of the sponsor.
What factors contribute to the incumbency advantage: What is constituency service?
Constituency service is: Two Types: District Service (a.k.a. pork) & Constituent Assistance (a.k.a. casework) District Service: efforts of members of congress to make sure that their districts get a share of federal projects and programs (despite moratorium earmarks). Constituent Assistance: efforts of members of congress to help individuals and groups when they have difficulties with federal agencies. These two services are important for incumbents because: -non-ideological, nonpartisan, and all profit. -Increased in importance with expansion of government.
Panagopoulos: Targeting and Contact: What data source does the author use? What is the dependent variable? What is the independent variable?
Data: ANES, voter contact surveys IV: Partisanship DV: Party contact
Schaffner et. al: What do the authors use to explore their expectations? How is the dependent variable measured? IV?
Data: YouGov polls, CCES DV: Two-party vote IV: Hostile sexism, racism denial, economic satisfaction
Describe the disclosure, limits on contributions and limits on spending for the following groups: 501 (c) 6
Definition: business leagues, chambers of commerce, real estate boards, and boards of trade that may engage in political activities, as long as these activities do not become their primary purpose Disclose donors: NO Contribute to candidates: NO Limits on contributions from individuals: NO Limits on electoral spending: Some (<50%)
Describe the disclosure, limits on contributions and limits on spending for the following groups: 501 (c) 5
Definition: labor and agricultural organizations that may engage in political activities, as long as these activities do not become their primary purpose Disclose donors: to the Department of Labor, not the FEC Contribute to candidates: NO Limits on contributions from individuals: NO Limits on electoral spending: Some (<50%)
Describe the disclosure, limits on contributions and limits on spending for the following groups: Super PACs
Definition: organization formed to influence elections by funding independent ads (express advocacy and uncoordinated) Disclose donors: YES Contribute to candidates: NO Limits on contributions from individuals: NO Limits on electoral spending: NO
Describe the disclosure, limits on contributions and limits on spending for the following groups: 501 (c) 4
Definition: social welfare organizations that may engage in political activities, as long as these activities do not become their primary purpose Disclose donors: NO Contribute to candidates: NO Limits on contributions from individuals: NO Limits on electoral spending: Some (<50%)
Reading Question W12: Mobilization, participation, and political change (Hansen): The author argues that participation in politics has a demand and a supply side to it. What does he mean by these two terms?
Demand (political actors): resources, incentives and opportunities for political elites to mobilize voters. Supply (voters): the motivations, costs, and social ties that encourage participation.
Panagopoulos: Targeting and Contact: The author argues that 2000 was a defining election for targeting. Why?
Developments in marketing technology, Republican strategy, regulation changes in data and campaign finances, behavioral science research
What factors contribute to the incumbency advantage: Discuss direct, scare-off, and quality effects.
Direct Effects= these include Committee system, weak party discipline, Resources, Name Recognition, and Constituency service. Scare-off Effects: discourage strong candidates. (i.e. if you want to win you won't go up against me because I've already established myself) ... kander and Quality Effects: the importance of political experience. *Evidence suggests that the incumbency advantage is driven more by what challengers do (or do not do) than what incumbents do.
Describe the disclosure, limits on contributions and limits on spending for the following groups: 527/PACs
Disclose donors: YES Contribute to candidates: YES Limits on contributions from individuals: YES Limits on electoral spending: NO
Hooghe and Dassonneville: What is the research question?
Do protest votes based in Anti-immigrant Sentiments and Racial Resentments predict Trump votes?
Reading Question W10: Fact Checking: What do the authors find? Are there hypotheses supported? Be specific.
Fact-checks do affect citizen evaluations of truthfulness, usefulness, and tone in the intended direction, with negative having more impact than positive. Both sensitive and sophisticated voters are more affected by this, but partisanship is not significant.
Describe the following court cases: Wisconsin Right to Life v. FEC (2007).
Found that issue ads cannot be banned before a primary or general election- part of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BRCA)
Describe the following court cases: McCutcheon vs.FEC (2014)
Found that the "total contribution limits on individuals" part of FECA was unconstitutional
Describe the following court cases: Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission (2010).
Found that: 1. prohibiting corporations, associations, and unions from using general treasury funds to influence federal elections (instead had to be a separate account/PAC that employees could contribute to) 2. having a distinction between economic and noneconomic groups was unconstitutional in FECA
Targeting: What are the two general targeting strategies?
Geographic Targeting: Specific to a region, i.e. a candidate's district; most common before... Micro-Targeting: Specific to a person, i.e. demographic, party loyalty, etc.
Endres and Kelly: Microtargeting and Young voters: What is the difference between geographic targeting and micro-targeting?
Geographic targeting is contact based on particular geographic boundaries. Contact based on precincts, districts, or states and the characteristics of those entities. Microtargeting is when voter files are used and coupled with consumer data and party data to contact individual voters.
Reading W8 Stranger Danger (Hood and McKee): What are the hypotheses?
H1: Boundary changes increase redrawn voters' information costs, making them less familiar with the incumbent. H2: Voters who cannot recognize the name of their incumbent are more likely to vote for the challenger.
Campaign Finance: Describe the types of campaign spending created by FECA.
Hard money: funds raised and spent in accordance with federal law on express advocacy activities. -Soft money: unlimited funds used for... *Independent spending- advocates for or against a candidate but is not coordinated with a campaign. *Issue advocacy spending- discusses campaign issues but does not advocate for or against a candidate.
Panagopoulos: Targeting and Contact: What is the research question?
Have parties shifted towards base mobilization from persuasion of independents?
Sides et al. : What do the authors find? Which types of voters were inclined to support Trump? Be specific.
Increased economic liberalism and more hawkish views on immigration very clearly track higher rates of support for Trump in the primary. Attitudes about racial and ethnic out-groups coupled with a more liberal economic view are more linked to Trump votes than economic anxiety.
Panagopoulos: Targeting and Contact: What does the author find? Do parties focus on base mobilization or persuasion? Be specific in discussing the evidence.
Independent contacts have gradually increased but, there is a link between strength of partisanship and self-reported contacts. -This trend is evident in both parties, with efforts focused on political bases, not independent or leaning voters.
Congressional contributions: Which sources are most important?
Individual contributions are the most important. PACs are the second most important source of campaign funds.
Reading Question W10: Fact Checking: Describe the survey experiment.
Internet survey (452 subjects) during competitive OH Senate election, testing effects of attack ads on either side accompanied by a negative or positive fact-check or none at all.
When incumbents lose: is the incumbency advantage absolute?
It is not absolute, incumbents do (rarely) lose.
Reading W9: Why Super PACs: What is La Raja's underlying thesis regarding the campaign finance system?
La Raja argues that the campaign finance system following the passage of FECA is unfit for the modern two-party system.
Congressional contributions: How do members of Congress make contributions to their fellow partisans?
Leadership PACs- form leadership PACs to contribute to other members. -Contributions from campaign committees. -Attract contributors to fundraising events.
Financing Campaigns: What do successful campaigns require?
Strategic choices -To win elections, candidates need to connect with voters. This requires: -A strategy to gather votes. -Means to carry out the the strategy. *money buys media access, experts, etc. *organization is critical to designing and executing the campaign strategy.
Voter Turnout: Describe some differences between those who vote and those who do not.
More likely to vote: -Older -Wealthier -Educated -Politically Experienced Less likely to vote: -younger -less educated
Vote choice: Why is contact, money, and name recognition important to vote choice?
Name recognition: -The more familiar voters are with a candidate, the more likely they are to vote for the candidate. -Incumbents have a substantial advantage in terms of name recognition. Contact: -voters are twice as likely to report contact with House incumbents than their challengers. -Contact increases familiarity and positive evaluations. Money: -Because contact is so important, campaign spending is critical for challengers to overcome the incumbent's advantage.
Campaign advertising: What are negative or attack ads? Give a few examples.
Negative or attack ads criticize a candidate on character issues, personal behavior, and policy inconsistencies. They are made to hurt the target and help the sponsor.
Hooghe and Dassonneville: The authors argue that new electoral cleavages and protest voting may pose a challenge to the traditional vote choice model. Discuss each of these components.
New Electoral cleavages-shifts in the electorate caused by major developments such as the impact of globalization have caused socioeconomic interests to be dwarfed by cleavages along anti-immigrant sentiments and racial resentment. Protest Voting: Hostile attitudes towards political elites, unity of the in-group, negative attitudes towards out-groups.
Campaign messages:Are open seat candidates likely to have different messages than other challengers? What about candidates for the Senate?
Open Seats: -Open seat candidates tend to be quality candidates. -Messages are often strongly influenced by national (partisan and anti-incumbent) trends. Senate: -Are more competitive and better funded, so campaign professionals and advertising are common. -Often lack control of the message give more extensive media coverage of Senators. -Difficult to develop and maintain personal relationships with constituents.
Sides et al.: What method do the authors use to explore this expectation?
Panel data from before the campaign (CCAP), weekly surveys throughout the primary (YouGov/Economist), and right before it (RAND's PEPS and the ANES Pilot)
Vote choice: What is partisanship? What are some characteristics of partisanship?
Partisanship is a long-term psychological identification with one's preferred political party (acquired from experience or learning). Characteristics: -Partisans 'see the world' differently as it conditions how voters feel about candidates, public officials, issues, and events. -Partisans denigrate their opponents and bolster their own side.
Setzler and Yanus: What do the authors find? What drives support for Trump and does it vary by gender?
Party identification (Republican), Race (White), Racial Resentment, and Sexism all drove support for Donald Trump across both genders.
Campaign advertising: What are positive ads? Give a few examples.
Positive ads praise candidates and their accomplishments. i.e. -Emphasized strengths (experience, family, etc.) -Introduces or re-introduces electorate to the candidate.
Voter Turnout: What does voter turnout look like during presidential elections? What about during midterm elections?
Presidential elections: 50%, more women. Midterm elections: 40%, more male, more white, more educated.
Define the Incumbency advantage: describe the problem with the two party vote
Problematic as it captures the incumbency advantage and the partisan advantage.
Schaffner et. al: What do the authors find? Does economic dissatisfaction, racism denial, or hostile sexism determine vote choice? Do these factors help explain the ballooning education gap in 2016?
Racism denial was the most salient. Both hostile sexism and economic dissatisfaction were moderate predictors of vote choice. Racism Denial and Hostile Sexism are more important predictors than economic dissatisfaction in predicting the education gap.
Describe the following court cases: Davis vs. FEC (2008).
Ruled that contribution limits for candidates with wealthy opponents and limited self-financing was unconstitutional- part of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BRCA)
When incumbents lose: Why do senate incumbents lose more often than House incumbents?
Senate incumbents lose more often than house incumbents because: -Party competition -more media attention -better challengers -higher ambitions
Setzler and Yanus: Describe the gender gap in vote choice.
Since even before women were enfranchised, they have - as a demographic - been more likely to champion liberal-issue advocacy and resist evident inequality. With increased ideological sorting, the gap has grown in terms of party identification and vote choice, with women more likely to vote for and associate with the Democratic Party than the GOP.
Vote choice: Discuss the sociological factors affecting vote choice.
Social class (working class vs. middle class) -values and political concerns differ by social class. -politicians appeal to voters based on social class. Group Attachments -can provide cues as to which candidates or parties support the group's position. -Many groups form long-term ties to the parties that can assist voters from election to election (unions and the democrats).
Reading W8 Stranger Danger (Hood and McKee): What data do the authors use?
Survey of white voters in GA-8 for the 2006 midterm election. (Jim Marshall was elected in 2004, and his district was redrawn for the 2006 midterm.)
Hooghe and Dassoneville: Describe the 'Michigan Model' of Vote Choice
The Michigan model uses liberal- conservative ideological dimension.
Sides et al.: What is the authors' expectation?
The author expects that Trump's campaign message activated a bloc of support in the Republican party that was more in line with his positions than other candidates, and this drove his victory in the primary.
Reading W8 Stranger Danger (Hood and McKee): What is the argument? According to the authors, what is the relationship between incumbent advantage and redistricting?
The authors argue that after redistricting, redrawn voters will no longer recognize their representative, and because they are not familiar with their incumbent, it will decrease their vote share in the following election.
Setzler and Yanus: What is the research question?
What factors motivated women - in contrast to men - to support Donald Trump?
Reading Question W11: Microtargeting and Young voters: What is the argument and hypothesis?
The authors argue that gaps in propensity scores based on demographics cause campaigns to exclude certain types of voters from their mobilization efforts - voters who might have been contacted under a Geographic Targeting model. -a Microtargeting strategy is going to miss young voters -Contact should be lower among young voters because of this MT strategy
Reading Question W10: Fact Checking:What are the authors' hypotheses? Why do they expect these hypotheses to be valid?
The authors predict that negative fact-checks would be effectively persuasive because they present many quality arguments from an expectation of credibility. However, this effect can be different for various voters. Political sophistication, sensitivity to negativity, and partisanship are expected to have an effect.
Role of money: why is it difficult to determine the role of money in congressional elections?
The connection between money and success is tricky as players act strategically: It is tricky because it depends on the likelihood of outcome. 1. Challengers do not win if they do not spend and the more they spend the better they do. 2. Incumbents spend when they face serious challenges; they avoid asking for money if they do not need it.
Reading Question W11: Microtargeting and Young voters: Describe the data including the dependent and independent variables.
The data merges RNC voter files (microtargeted propensity scores for turnout and party support) with surveys from the 2012 CCES DV: Propensity Scores, Microtargeting/Geographic Targeting Schemes: Campaign Contacts IV: Demographic Characteristics What do the authors find? 1: As voters are older, more educated, and higher-income, they are more likely to have higher propensity scores and more likely to be contacted by Microtargeting strategies. 2: Black voters are less likely to be scored and contacted than whites. 3: A Geographic strategy would have contacted these voters.
Auter & Fine: Social Media Campaigning: Describe the data including the dependent and independent variables.
The data: social media posts for senate candidates in 2010. Dependent variables: -fundraising -online -offline Independent variables: -types of candidates. -proximity of election.
Define the Incumbency advantage: What is the incumbency advantage?
The incumbency advantage is the advantage that the incumbent (individual currently holding office) candidate has over the challenger candidate. The advantage that accrues to the incumbent beyond party because of actions the incumbent has taken [personal vote]
Reading Question W11: Microtargeting and Young voters: What is meant by the notion of a 'propensity to vote'? How is it calculated?
The propensity to vote is your likelihood to vote based on proprietary formulas. It is calculated by demographic characteristics, voter history, party data, consumer data, etc. young voter often have low propensity scores
Define the incumbency advantage: What is the slurge?
The slurge is an index capturing: 1. The sophomore Surge: the vote share difference between an incumbent's first election and second election. -> they usually gain voters in their second election. Focus more on personal qualities the second time around. 2. The retirement Slump: difference between the party's vote in the previous election and the party's vote after an incumbent retires and the seat becomes open again. This shows how many votes the incumbent was generating. (This falloff also negatively effects the party advantage). The slurge combines these and averages them to capture the incumbency advantage.
Reading W8 Stranger Danger (Hood and McKee): What do they find? Does incumbent recognition vary as a result of redistricting? Does incumbent recognition affect support for the incumbent?
There is a significant recognition gap between voters in the newly-drawn district who were in Marshall's previous district and those drawn into the newly-drawn district through redistricting. Any voters who did not recognize Marshall - regardless of being in his previous district or not - were less likely to vote for him. ***Successful campaigns must CONNECT with VOTERS.
Sides et al. :Describe Trump's campaign message and discuss how it was more in line with Republican voters than Republican elites.
Trump's message: economic liberalism and immigration hawking Republican voters were less concerned with or conservative on economic issues (i.e. social welfare spending) than elites in the establishment. Also, they were more concerned and more hawkish on immigration than the establishment.
When incumbents lose: when have incumbents lost?
When the party's base of support shifts. Claire McCaskill -> tried to be too centrist.
Vote choice: Are issues relevant to vote choice? If so, how?
Yes issues are relevant to vote choice. -they signal the public's preferences for government action. Two types of issue voting: Retrospective- voters focus on past events and evaluate candidates on what they have done in the past. Prospective-voters focus on how a candidate is expected to handle issues in the future. Prospective evaluations require more complex decision making than retrospective evaluations.
Targeting and TV advertising: Are there consistent patterns to targeting strategies overtime?
challengers negative ads, incumbents positive ads
Reading W9: Why Super PACs: Describe the logic surrounding the passage of the Federal Election Campaign Act. What was its main purpose and how was it time-dependent?
logic was that candidates would control their own campaigns by consolidating candidate finances with one committee managed by the candidate main purpose was to provide public financing for presidential elections, set limits on how much money could be spent in presidential elections, and limit size of contributions and expenditures in congressional elections time-dependent because it only passed due to Watergate scandal-- the break-in was financed in part by funds supplied from President Nixon's reelection committee, as well as undisclosed funds from wealthy individuals and corporate donors-- meant the public was ready for tougher laws
Targeting and TV advertising: Describe campaign targeting with TV advertisements.
match campaign ads with TV networks that cater to ideologically alike viewers
Reading Question W12: Fake News: Why is fake news taking on such prominence lately?
several reasons why social media platforms may be especially conducive to fake news 1: social media, the costs of producing content are vanishingly small. This increases the relative profitability of the small-scale, short-term strategies often adopted by fake news producers, and reduces the relative importance of building a long-term reputation for quality 2: the format of social media—thin slices of information viewed on phones or news feed windows—can make it difficult to judge an article's veracity. 3: Bakshy, Messing, and Adamic (2015) show that Facebook friend networks are ideologically segregated—and people are considerably more likely to read and share news articles that are aligned with their ideological positions.
Congressional contributions: Describe outside spending in 2016.
total: 1.39 billion, more than 2012, 2014, and 2018 top 3 largest groups: NRA (conservative, 35 million), US Chamber of Commerce (conservative, 29 million), and 44 Cmte (conservative, 22 million) top 3 largest Super PACs: Priorities USA Action (liberal, 133 million), Right to Rise USA (supports Bush, 86 million), and Senate Leadership Fund (conservative, 85 million) conservative outside spending was over 720 million liberal outside spending was over 540 million (all data from opensecrets.org)
