CAPM Exam - 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Histogram
Shows the frequency of a particular simulation outcome
Cumulative Probability Distribution (S-Curve)
Shows the probability of achieving any particular outcome
Decision Tree Analysis
A diagramming and calculation technique for evaluating the implications of a chain of multiple options in the presence of uncertainty.
How are decision trees evaluated?
Branches of the tree represent alternative courses of action. The tree is evaluated by calculating the expected monetary value of each branch, allowing the optimal path to be selected.
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis - Tools and Techniques
Expert judgement, data analysis, data gathering, representations of uncertainty, interpersonal and team skills
Tools and techniques of the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process include: - Checklists, damage control reports, standard allowances, and inspection - Contracting, contingency planning, alternative strategies, and insurance - Interviewing, historical results, workarounds, and Risk Analysis development - Expert judgement, data gathering, simulations, and decision tree analysis
Expert judgement, data gathering, simulations, and decision tree analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Helps determine which individual project risks could have the most impact on project outcomes
All of the following are characteristics of a decision tree EXCEPT: - Uses expected monetary value (EMV) analysis to calculate the expected outcome for scenarios that may or may not happen - It is a risk analysis tool that can be used to create an estimated monetary value from a particular set of decisions - It is a diagramming and calculation technique for evaluating the implications of a chain of multiple options in the presence of uncertainty - It is primarily a qualitative risk analysis technique and is not generally used in quantitative risk analysis
It is primarily a qualitative risk analysis technique and is not generally used in quantitative risk analysis
What is the key benefit of the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process?
It quantifies overall project risk exposure, in terms of time, cost, resources, etc., and can provide additional quantitative information to support response planning
During which Project Management Process group does the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process occur?
Planning
Tornado Diagram
Presents the calculated correlation coefficient for each element of the quantitative risk analysis model that can influence the project outcome. Items are ordered by descending strength of correlation, giving the typical tornado appearance.
As an output of the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis, project documents are updated. One such update is: - Direction, resources, and contingency costs - Prioritized list of individual project risks - Checklists, corrective actions, and qualified decision trees - Qualitative analysis of the threats to ignore and opportunities to accept
Prioritized list of individual project risks
Which of the following data analysis techniques helps to determine which individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty have the most potential impact on project outcomes? - Decision tree analysis - Simulations - Sensitivity analysis - Influence diagrams
Sensitivity analysis
Risk Report
The assessment of overall risk exposure is reflected in two measures: chances of project success and degree of variability remaining in the project. Includes S-curves, tornado diagrams, criticality analysis, and narrative interpretation of results.
Simulations
Used to model the combined effects of individual project risks to evaluate their potential impact on achieving project objectives
Which of the following best describes a decision tree? - A diagram that represents a project or situation within the project as a set of entities, outcomes, and influences, together with the relationships between them - A graphical, qualitative risk analysis technique and not generally used in quantitative analysis - Used to support selection of the best of several alternative courses of action - Displays the calculated coefficient for each element of the quantitative risk analysis model
Used to support selection of the best of several alternative courses of action
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis - Outputs
Project documents updates
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis - Inputs
Project management plan, project documents, EEFs, OPAs
Influence Diagram
Represents a project or situation as a set of entities, outcomes, and influences with their relationships and effects