Ch 13: judgement, decisions, and reasoning
heuristics
"rules of thumb" that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem
heuristics
"rules of thumb" that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem but are not foolproof
watson four card problem
A conditional reasoning task developed by Wason that involves four cards. Various versions of this problem have been used to study the mechanisms that determine the outcomes of conditional reasoning tasks
risk aversion strategy
A decision-making strategy that is governed by the idea of avoiding risk. Often used when a problem is stated in terms of gains
ultimatum game
A game in which a proposer is given a sum of money and makes an offer to a responder as to how this money should be split between them. The responder must choose to accept the offer or reject it. This game has been used to study people's decision-making strategies
syllogism
A series of three statements: two premises followed by a conclusion. The conclusion can follow from the premises based on the rules of logic
categorical syllogisms
A syllogism in which the premises and conclusion describe the relationship between two categories by using statements that begin with All, No, or Some.
neuroeconomics
An approach to studying decision making that combines research from the fields of psychology, neuroscience, and economics
mental model appraoch
In deductive reasoning, determining if syllogisms are valid by creating mental models of situations based on the premises of the syllogism
Lydia is 48 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy as an undergraduate. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and she participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which of the following alternatives is most probable?
Lydia is a U.S. Congresswoman.
utility
Outcomes that achieve a person's goals; in economic terms, the maximum monetary payoff
backfire effect
Person's support for a particular viewpoint becomes stronger when presented with facts opposing their viewpoint.
opt-in procedure
Procedure in which a person must take an active step to choose a course of action—for example, choosing to be an organ donor
validity
Quality of a syllogism whose conclusion follows logically from its premises
deductive reasoning
Reasoning that involves syllogisms in which a conclusion logically follows from premises
conditional syllogism
Syllogism with two premises and a conclusion, like a categorical syllogism, but whose first premise is an "If ... then" statement
premises
The first two statements in a syllogism. The third statement is the conclusion
expected utility theory
The idea that people are basically rational, so if they have all of the relevant information, they will make a decision that results in the most beneficial result
dual systems approach
The idea that there are two mental systems, one fast and the other slower, that have different capabilities and serve different functions
falsification principle
The reasoning principle that to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule
incident emotions can be related to
a persons general disposition
mental model
a specific situation represented in a person's mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning
modus ponens
affirming the antecedent
Tuan bought a new leather jacket after saving for many months for the luxury purchase. On the first day he went out wearing the new garment, he found a $50 bill on the sidewalk outside of his office. He now refers to the jacket as his "lucky jacket" and believes that it has some magical power to give him good fortune. Tuan's belief in the jacket's cosmic ability is an example of
an illusory correlation.
stereotypes
an oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative
stereotype
an oversimplified generalizations about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative
right anterior insula
area located deep within the brain between the parietal and temporal lobes
father of deductive reasoning
aristotle
expected utility theory
assumes people are rational and will make the decision based off maximum expeced utility
two types of heuristics
avalibility heuristics and representativeness heuristics
stanovich favored
because it better reflected the interconnected, distributed processing that occurs in the brain
in deductive reasoning, conclusions reached can be definitely true if
both premises anre definitely true and if the form of the syllogism is valid
deductive reasoning starts with
broad principles to make logical predicitons about specific cases
Given its definition, expected utility theory is most applicable to deciding whether to
buy first-class or coach tickets for a spring break trip.
sanfey findings
people most accepted offers the closer they were to equal. unfair offers were more likely to be accepted if they were computer generated.
selective attention impact on stereotypes
can makethe stereotype more apparent or available which then strengthens the stereotype
characteristic of inductive reasoning
conclusions we reach are probably, but not deffinitely true
If a motorcycle cop believes that young female drivers speed more than other drivers, he will likely notice young female drivers speeding in the fast lane but fail to notice young male or older drivers doing the same. In this case, the police officer's judgments are skewed by the operation of the
confirmation bias
illusory correlation
correlation appears to exist, but either does not exist or is much weaker than assumed
framing effect
decisions are influenced by how a decision is stated
framing effect
decisions are influenced by how the choices are stated, or framed
social decisions
decisions involving other people
status guo bias
people tend to stick to what is already put in place
An experiment measures participants' performance in judging syllogisms. Two premises and a conclusion are presented as stimuli, and participants are asked to indicate (yes or no) if the conclusion logically follows from the premises. Error rates are then calculated for each syllogism. This experiment studies _________________ reasoning.
deductive
modus tollens
denying the consequent
categorical syllogism
describe relation between two categories using all, no, or some
incident emotions
emotions that are not caused by having to make a decision
expected emotions
emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outcome
availability heuristic
events that are more easily available or events that come to mind more easily are judged to be more probable than events harder to recall
availibility heuristics
events that more easily come to mind are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily recalled
system 1
fast, automatic, intuitiv, nonconscious
inductive reasoning goes from specific observations to
general conclusions
deductive reasoning
generalize to broad principles based on specific cases given to us
representative heuristic
how much one event resembles another event
neuroeconomics
how we manage gains losses in an economic context using neuroscience
permission schema
if a is satisfied, b can be carried out
people regularly behave inways that
ignore the optimum way of responding based on probabilities
backfire effect
individual support for a viewpoint becomes stronger when presented with facts opposing own attitudes and beliefs causing them to believe in their own beliefs even stronger
one of the primary mechanisms involved in making judgements
inductive reasoning
reasoning based on observations and involves reaching conclusions from evidence
inductive reasoning
adding alternative to be considered as possible choices can
inluece decisions
system 1
intuitive, fast, nonconcious, automatic
a conclusion is valid only if
it cannot be refuted by any model of the premises
confirmation bias is broader than myside bias becasue
it holds for any situation in which information is favored that confirms a hypothesis
inductive reasonng is used in
make predctiion about what will happen based on observations about what has happened in the past
judgement
making a decision or drawing a conclusion
representative heauristic involves
making judgements based on how much an event resembles other events
logic involved in syllogisms
mathmatical logic
illicit conversion
misinterpreting "all a are b" to mean "all b are a"
types of conditional syllogism
modus ponems(1), modus tollens(2), 3, 4
atosphere hypothesis
no attempt at evaluating underlying logic and mood of syllogism can cause participants ot believe they know the corect answer
conditional syllogism 4
not p therefore not q
modus tollens
not q therefore not p
confirmation bias
occurs when people look for information that conforms to their hypothesis and ignore information that refutes it
utility
outcomes that are desireable because they are in the persons best interest
modus ponens
p therefore q
we make predictions and choices based on
past experiences
basic principle behind mental models
people create model, or an imagined representation of the situation, for a reasoning problem
When the "abstract" version of the Wason four-card problem is compared to a "concrete" version of the problem (in which beer, soda, and ages are substituted for the letters and numbers),
performance is better for the concrete task.
conjunction rule
probability of conjunction two events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents
utility approach sprcifies
procedures that make it possible to determine whihc choice would result in the highest monetary value
conditional syllogism 3
q therefore p
people are often better at judging the validity of syllogisms when
real world examples are substituted for abstract symbols
system 2
reflective, slow, conscious, controlled
strength of argument depends on
representativeness of obcervations, number of observations, quality of observations
factors contibuting to the strength of inductive argument
representativeness of observations, number of observations, quality of the evidence
representative heuristic examples
resemblence, conjunction rule, rule of large numbers
responds about three times stronger when individuals reject an offer versus accpet it
right anterior insula
expected emotions are one of the determinants of
risk aversion
frame in terms of gains
risk aversion
frame in terms of losses
risk taking
system 2
slower, deliberative, conscious, controlled
prefrontal cortex and insula have been shown to be involved in
social and individual decisions
permission schema
states that if a person satisfies a specific condition (being of legal drinking age), then he or she gets to carry out an action (being served alcohol)
law of large numbers
states that the larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population.
illusory correlatins can result in
stereotypes
goal of neuroeconomics
study how the brain activates in relation to decision making when posed with gains or losses
myside bias
tendancy for people to generate and evaluate evidence and test their hypothesis in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
myside bias
tendency for people to generate and evaluate evidence and test their hypotheses in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
According to your text, the key to solving the Wason four-card problem is
the falsification principle
syllogism is valid when
the form of the syllogism indicates that its conclusion follows logically from its two premises
law of large numbers
the greater the sample, the more likely the ratio is to be representative of the population
At a lunch meeting with a client, the CEO of Gossip Polls, Inc., was asked to determine America's favorite day of the week. Hundreds of Gossip employees across the U.S. started collecting data immediately, calling people at their residences. One hour later, the attitudes from 10,000 Americans, across all 50 states, were collected. A staff member called the CEO, still at her lunch meeting, to tell her the results of the poll: America's favorite day of the week is Monday. Given your text's discussion of inductive reasoning in science, we might suspect that the observations in this poll are not representative because
the people who are home to answer the phone in the early afternoon are not an appropriate cross-section of the U.S. population.
decision
the process of choosing between alternatives
reasoning
the process of drawing conclusions
inductive reasoning
the process of drawing general conclusions based on specific observations and evidence
base rate
the relative proportion of different classes in the population
Failing to consider the law of large numbers most likely results in errors concerning
the representativeness heuristic.
belief bias
the tendancy to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable
belief bias
the tendancy to think that a syllogism is valid if its conclusions are believable
risk aversion
the tendency to avoid taking risks
status quo bias
the tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision
falsification principle
to test a rule, you must look for situations that falsify that rule
stanovich
type 1 and type 2 processing
Consider the following syllogism: All cats are birds. All birds have wings. All cats have wings. This syllogism is
valid
illusory correlations
when a relationship between two events appears to exist, but in reality, there is no relationship or the relationship is much weaker than it is assumed to be
risk avoidance
when anxious individualstend to avoid making a decision that could lead to a negative outcome
representative heauristic
which states that the likelihood that an instance is a member of a larger category depends on how well that instance resembles properties we typically associate with that category
conjunction rule
which states that the probability of a conjunction of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents (A alone or B alone)