Civil Wars Midterm 2

What is corruption? Why is it so difficult to define?

- Corruption: misuse of power by those who hold it— people who, in their official position, exploit the power with which they are entrusted by seeking private gain. someone in an official position, exploiting the power with which they are entrusted by seeking private gain = that person is corrupt - Difficult to define because it is culturally determined and varies from one society to another; additionally exists at many different levels (local, state, international) thus determining a threshold is difficult ex) gift-giving to officials may be expected in one country and prohibited by law in another.

Why is the price of grain a good predictor for political unrest?

- Grain is an ingredient in basic goods needed for survival, such as bread - if price of bread goes up, that will economically impact you no matter what financial state you're in but especially relevant in poorer countries where people don't have a lot of disposable income for food - climate change effect on food supplies is important because it can increase grievances against government ex) Arab Spring: countries rioted over food prices' increase

How do we measure corruption?

- On the financial front, the World Bank has attempted to attach a monetary figure to the extent of bribery (which does not include the embezzlement of public funds or the theft of public assets). Based on worldwide economic data compiled in 2001-2002, the World Bank estimated that the amount of money paid in bribes globally was some $1 trillion. (according to US Institute of Peace) - Transparency International: corruption perception index based on opinions of business and expert people, 2/3 of world is "corrupt" at some level, but not all are experiencing civil war. However, MOST corrupt countries all have civil war happening in their countries ex) Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq (among the most corrupt)

What is the relationship between climate change and civil conflict?

- climate change is a "threat multiplier" that exacerbates issues such as poverty and inequality that already exist -

Why does corruption lead to conflict? How might it exacerbate existing conflicts?

- corruption weakens the government and creates grievances and discontent among the public - corruption weakens the gvmt because it undermines the perception of the state by the people, money is diverted from public sectors; state-capacity model Exacerbates existing conflicts because during a conflict you often see a rise in corruption; corruption and violent conflicts are basically a co-flux phenomenon, once rebel groups, civilians and government officials start to see gains from corruption, they can capitalize on those gains and not want to give them up and therefore not work towards peace (ex: vote-buying, profiting off of resources and smuggling, drugs, etc.) post conflict societies are particularly vulnerable to corruption because the gains made during the conflict via corruption (ex: Blood Diamond rebels making $$ off of conflict diamonds, also government making $$ off of these resources) are not easily ended;

How is environmental degradation linked to conflict?

- deforestation, land degradation and soil erosion, lack of freshwater, etc. all lead to grievances against the government - climate refugees (internally) that have to migrate can lead to sons-of-the-soil conflicts as more of the population fights over limited land resources ex) Arab Spring riots organized and protests over food prices as a result of declining environmental conditions

How has (the perception of) corruption developed in Afghanistan since 2001? What role did the U.S. government play in this and how might increased corruption undermine counter-insurgency efforts?

- despite the billions of dollars being poured into the country, most Afghans have seen little changes; 40% unemployed, 90% of Afghan spending is on aid; so where is the money really going? Oxfam 2009 survey of 700 Afghans had 50% say that corruption is leading cause of war, while 70% said poverty and unemployment were the main causes of the conflict (which result from corruption) US role: US declaring a "war on terror" and entering Afghanistan to counter Al-Qaeda/Taliban in 2001 resulted in large injections of aid money with poor oversight - US ignored problems of corruption and worked and collaborated with corrupt officials because their priorities were security, political goals, rather than welfare of public. - the US funded local "warloards" and their militias, men who later rose to prominence in the Afghan government and used their positions to engage in corrupt activities Increased corruption undermines counter-insurgency (COIN) efforts: - wasted $$ - money is going to insurgents - corrupt use of $$ creates severe grievances within the population, people may turn to Taliban as an alternative: "war is all the gvmt has given us," and "some ppl are doing well while we suffer" and simultaneously USA loses legitimacy/credibility

How is wartime rape a strategic tool?

- humiliation tactic: demonstrates power, ability to protect women - socialization aspect: in-group bonding/combatant socialization - rape as a part of ethnic cleansing; in Bosnia those committing rape discussed how the women would have Serbian babies, cleanse the coming generation

Which rebel groups are more likely to use terrorist tactics?

- terrorism is a strategic choice, but also a weapon of the weak - thus rebel groups aware of their inability to wage a full scale war against the government can strategically choose to use terrorism as a strategy

What is climate change reductionism?

- those geographic regions most prone to the effects of climate change are also geographic regions dealing with violent civil conflict, but you cannot simply conflate causes of conflict to climate change - When we shift the blame for violence to the weather and treat human struggle as simply a state of nature, we reduce the complexity of warfare to a single dimension. - We also absolve the agents of conflict of moral responsibility for their actions. - Facilitates the sense that war in the developing world can be readily depoliticized and naturalized by pushing factors like local culture and social relations to the sidelines. - It provides a ready excuse to leave these issues unaddressed.

What are important aspects of a definition of terrorism?

- violence - directed against the civilian population; indiscriminate killing of civilians - carried out with the intention to intimidate and create fear - political or social agenda backing acts of terror - can be domestic and international

What factors may prolong civil wars?

1. Issues - incompatibility: territorial wars are longer than those over government control - Ethno-religious fractionalization 2. Capacity - state capacity model - guerrilla tactics 3. Rebellion seen as a Business - spoilers may want to sabotage peace b/c unwilling to give up economic benefits of civil conflict 4. Rebellion as investment - costly but expect high pay-off in the end, not willing to sit at peace talks table because end goal is wanted 5. Foreign intervention - intervention on just one side is unusual, more funds and more support to both sides can increase resources of both and prolong duration 6. Veto Players: - all those involved/needed to make peace - could be other governments, extremists, military intervention, etc. - Potential spoilers, and thus can prolong conflict 7. Lack of credible commitment

How are terrorist organizations different from rebel movements?

1. Organization: less structured (rebel groups have hierarchical structure) 2. Goals: have fairly narrow political goals (rebel groups have broad political goals) 3. Public support: little public support (rebel groups often have substantial public support) 4. Destructive power: comparatively lower than rebel groups fighting in a civil war

What are explanations for the level of violence in civil war (sociological, Hobbesian, military theses)?

1. Sociological thesis: - level of violence will be determined by the polarization that existed at the start of the conflict, will spill over into conflict, mistrust/revenge, if the core of the conflict is that polarization then we will see increased violence against other group in the civil war 2. Hobbesian thesis: - once norms of society break down, then anarchy reigns - as son as state construct falls apart, violence increases 3. Military thesis: - if the military doesn't know who the enemy is because they are shielded in civilian populations and keep getting attacked by unidentifiable forces, they will feel scared and retaliate violently - guerrilla tactics used by rebels: is this village hiding rebels or cooperating? - ex) Vietnam; can't understand language and so retaliates against civilians because they don't know who to trust

How are terrorist tactics used strategically during civil conflict?

1. Terrorist attacks targeting civilians: - intimidation of potential defectors (keep population in line by publicly brutally killing those aligned with the government), demonstrates power to carry out attacks in everyday settings where civilians could be, drives support for terrorist groups for protection 2. Terrorist attacks targeting government: - demonstrate government weakness - provoke indiscriminate (non-selective, unrestrained) counterattack by the government which drives population support for rebels 3. Government terrorizing civilians: - reduces the size, infrastructure of rebel base

Holland

Climate change and Syria: - 2006, years before 2011 Arab Spring, there was a major drought in Syria - herders in Northeast Syria saw 85% of their livestock wiped out - 75% of farmers experienced total crop loss in many agrarian communities - roughly 2 million Syrians dependent on agriculture (10% of population); had to move to urban areas - Syria seen as a case study for the kinds of conflicts that we're likely to see more frequently as the Earth continues to warm - international impacts of climate change: Arab Spring wheat prices went up and one of the drivers of that was the simultaneous droughts in Russia and Australia, which drove up commodity prices, but the instability didn't happen there, but rather in North Africa where they import huge amounts of wheat and have low disposable incomes - in the US, melting of Alaska ice has unlocked reserves of natural resources that everyone is claiming, including Russia, US, Canada, Denmark and Sweden

Livingston

Climate change reductionism: - as the temperature rises, so the number of failed states but we cannot attribute climate change to causes of war - John William Draper's "History of the American Civil War" published in 1867 literally attributes the war to climate, in that the south had a climate favorable for plantation economy and thus enslaved labor, taking away any moral responsibility of southern slaveholders - when we shift the blame for violence to the weather and treat human struggle as simply a state of nature, we reduce the complexities of warfare to a single dimension - we also absolve the agents of conflict of moral responsibility for their actions - depoliticizes war and naturalizes it by pushing factors like local culture and social relations to the sidelines - also provides a ready excuse to leave the issues unaddressed

Reuters

Corruption in Afghanistan: - Oxfam poll found 50% of Afghans surveyed (700) said that corruption was cause of civil war; 70% said poverty and unemployment (which are products of corruption) - Afghanistan relies on aid for about 90% of its spending; yet as the billions pour into the country, no ordinary citizens see these funds

Nasser

Corruption in Syria: - its geopolitical position has brought Syria to the attention of many different superpowers, making it a battleground for them - Assad regime tightly controlled trade with the rest of the world; Lebanese civil war allowed for smuggling and black markets to form across borders with support of those in power, beginning of corruption - in an extremely closed economy, smuggling became the norm to get fruits, veggies, and daily products like butter, tea, sugar, bananas - corruption deepend; created a new class of people from all religions who took advantage of situations and got closer to Alawite (Islamic sect, Assad ruled) regime - corruption resulted in the people demanding radical reforms in how Syria was governed, lack of response to those demands = seek help from foreign governments - foreign governments only helped if Syria cut ties with Iran and religious leaders outside Syria called for Sunni uprising - new sectarianism spread- became popular b/c it legitimized violence against others

Cockburn

Current refugee crisis: - wars aren't ending, people can't return to their homes, must seek PERMANENT sanctuary - "Somalianisation" = a permanent state of chaos and warfare, "failed state," becomes a hub for terrorist groups - religious wars, ISIS publicizes enemies, so people leave countries in search for safety - nationalism and socialism no longer provide the ideological glue to hold together secular states or to motivate people to fight for them to the last bullet, as believers do for the fanatical and violent brand of Sunni Islam espoused by ISIS

Gettleman

DRC - rape epidemic; lack of government response - Rwanda sending Tutsi troops across eastern border of Congo; US and other Western powers turning a blind eye to this b/c Rwanda was an ally/able to leverage guilt for not addressing its Genocide in 1994 - finally tho, US cut aid

Fisher

Duration of Civil Wars: - the length of civil wars has been increasing steadily since 1945 - civil wars are longer and bloodier than average when foreign powers intervene; in Syria Iran is on Assad's side and Saudi Arabia are funding rebel groups - civil wars with lots of factions last longer than average; there's roughly 13 in Syria right now - civil wars are longer than average when they don't end by negotiated settlement: no chance Syria will end in a peace deal b/c u need a third party willing to commit resources such as peacekeepers and a clear political divide on the battlefield, Syria has neither

Kaldor, chapter 4

Globalization and "new wars" a) Politics of identity versus b) politics of ideas - a) mobilize around ethnic, racial, or religious identity for the purpose of claiming state power; more backwards-thinking, glorifies the past, reclaims - b) focus on the future and integration of all different people for one future; socialism, environmentalism, democracy-building Identity politics plays an increasing role today via ISIS how does globalization fit into this? 1) b/c of transnational networks, national politicians feel less powerful, in attempts to gain support for their national politics they reclaim these exclusive identity rhetoric politics... source of political mobilization/survival tactic for those politicians to inculcate popular prejudices 2) IP emerges out of the parallel economy, which includes new forms of legal and illegal economic activity emerging out of excluded parts of society, in order to legitimize these new shadowy forms of economic activity

Greed vs Grievance vs Opportunity Models of Civil War Causation

Grievance: collective frustration to collective violence stemmed from discrimination, inequality, relative deprivation, territorial claims, etc. Greed: rebels wage war simply for the prospect of private gain, not due to grievances. Rebellion as predation/organized crime. Opportunity: Paul Collier, rebel groups will mobilize only when they have made the cost-benefit analysis that tells them it is feasible to win the rebellion; economically viable and militarily supported

Thaler

Ideology and Violence in Civil War: - ideological commitment determines the level of violence - Marxist-Leninist ideology = anti-racist, anti-imperialist, against the oppressors = less violence against the civilians - the longer the conflict lasts, the more likely ideology will break down

What is intractability and what is its relation to conflict duration?

Intractability: a conflict between two large groups of people accompanied by large-scale violence that has lasted for some considerable time and has resisted efforts at settlement ex) Israeli-Palestinian Peace is an intractable conflict

What is the connection between globalization and identity politics (Kaldor)?

Kaldor, "Globalization and 'New Wars'" - Identity politics: movements which mobilize around ethnic, racial or religious identity for the purpose of claiming state power (tend to be more backwards thinking, reclaims of past, etc. compared to politics of ideas which focus on future and integration of different ppl for support, such as socialism and democracy-building and environmentalism) - Identity politics playing an increasing role today via ISIS, etc. 2 links of IP to Globalization: 1) B/c increasing transnational connections, role of state is declining; political actors use IP as a form of political mobilization/survival tactic as those politicians active in national politics form and inculcate popular prejudices 2) IP emerges out of the parallel economy (new forms of legal and illegal ways of making money that have emerged from those excluded parts of society) in order to justify/legitimize these new shadowy forms of economic activity

How does globalization make civil war less likely? More likely?

Less likely: Globalization is supposed to: - decrease income inequality; reducing grievances - increase economic development; increased wealth = increased spending on social services; discouraging rebels; governments also have more money to spend on security and COIN - diffuse democratic norms; democracy as a pacifying factor but ALSO investors need to see stability in a country before they invest which creates a disincentive for a rebellion More likely: - relative deprivation: see elites get richer as a result of globalization, but you don't see any of that $$ - if globalization results in simply underdevelopment and increase of inequality, rebel groups have more grievances to work off of - the loss of culture argument/ pushback of perceived imposed uniformity, ethno-conflicts, pushback along ethnic lines - transnational crime and terrorism: an increase in legal transnational activity coincides with an increase in illegal transnational activity including terrorism ex) China right now: eliminating term limits (installing a head of state similar to an emperor) and thus becoming increasingly undemocratic in the wake of insane globalization and economic growth; China's National People's Congress approved bill to eliminate term limits, allowing for President Xi Jinping to rule indefinitely, could create pushback from public

What is the difference between politically motivated and militantly motivated terrorist organizations?

P-type: stages terrorist attacks hoping to force the government to at least agree to some of its demands M-type: stages terrorist attacks for purely religious or unwavering reasons; a successful attack produces satisfaction even if the act brings no benefit for the organization and even if the government makes absolutely no accommodation

How does corruption negatively affect post-conflict societies?

Post conflict society factors create environment where corruption can thrive: - economic hardship - weak/ineffective government; extreme insecurity - debt dependency / high levels of foreign aid; intervening organizations - risk of recurring violence - legacy of war crimes, human and material devastation Corruption during the peacebuilding process: - often overlooked in order to focus on bigger picture of peace, corrupt practices not addressed - corruption also can become integral to the peacebuilding process with corrupt practices used to create or maintain governance or cut deals Finally: - norms and values contextualizing corruption thus become intertwined with the societal and political structures of countries emerging from war; if a war was happening for so long in a country do the citizens even know what to consider corrupt anymore?

Saleyan

Refugees and Conflict: - views act of migration and subsequent political activities of refugees as conscious choices they make; actors not just victims refugees as combatants, "refugee warriors: - refugee communities frequently become prime recruitment areas for combatant groups, have a grievance against the state from which they fled and because of losses suffered, they have few opportunity costs for joining a rebel movement rebels are often able to mobilize across international borders because security forces of governing state can not easily suppress activity if the government is targeting civilians, increase in refugees rather than IDPs refugees follow previously established migration patterns

How might some refugees contribute to the civil war in their home country (refugee warriors/diaspora funding/advocacy)?

Security consequences of refugees: - refugee warriors: exit the country but decide to join rebellion outside of national borders where security is highest - refugee camps as rebel bases - tensions between sending and receiving country can create increased issues involving civil conflict - spread of rebel social networks may lead to domestic conflict in host country

What are (internal/external) spoilers?

Spoilers: actors that may sabotage/undermine the peace process of a civil conflict Internal: those who participate in the original peace process but then undermine the process when it is no longer beneficial to them ex) Angola leader who signed peace agreement but then did not accept election results External: a group excluded from the peace process (either purposefully or because they are an international or foreign actor)

Newman

Sri Lanka's Civil War

Keating

Terrorism does not work: - summarizes Columbia University Page Fortna in her work that terrorist groups like ISIS have a nearly impossible time achieving their political goals - found zero instances of terrorism-using rebel groups defeating the governments they were fighting outright - terrorism can be used as a survival tactic: wars in which rebels used terror were much more likely to be ongoing as of 2009 than were wars with nonterrorist rebels - groups lose their territory that they control but can still use terrorism to stay active ex) al-Shabaab in Somalia and Kenya

DRC

Type of Civil War: - war over government control (?) Actors: - 20 different rebel groups fighting in 2nd Congolese War Issues: - DRC has 50% of the world's cobalt (cars, phones); natural resources - ethnic tensions: Tutsis vs Hindus - conflict breeds conflict - Refugee crisis / Rwanda

Sri Lanka What type of civil war is it? Who are the actors? What are the issues?

Type of Civil War: Incompatibility: territorial Actors (Who?): - Government versus Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) What are they fighting about? (Issues): - ethnic tensions: population is Sinhalese Buddhists (82%) and Tamil Hindus (9%) - Tamils lack cultural recognition, political representation - over time demands become more radical; self-government and independence - "youth bulge": % of population under 25 is large, there are limited education/career opportunities which results in the mobilization of youth in rebel forces Tactics: - guerrilla warfare, terrorist tactics (suicide bombings, "invented the suicide vest" 137 confirmed) Costs: 80,000 to 100,000 dead

What are war crimes? What is genocide?

War crimes: human rights abuses on a large scale during war such as willful killing, torture, mutilation, humiliating and degrading treatment, unlawful transfers/deportation, collective punishment Genocide: consists of any of the following acts committed with INTENT to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group such as: a) killing members of the group b) causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group c) deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part d) imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group e) forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

Prunier

War in the DRC

Cohen

War-time rape: - recruitment mechanism is associated with the occurrence of wartime rape - wartime rape as a method of socialization, in which armed groups that recruit by force- through abduction or pressganging- use rape to create unit cohesion - Sierra Leone civil war: RUF committed majority of wartime rape; recruited soldiers via children abductions and kidnapping

Types of Incompatability

Wars over government control: goal is to change entire system or composition of the government, sub categories are revolutions and coups Wars over territorial control: secession or autonomy, based on shared identity such as territorial, communal, or ideological ex) sons-of-the-soil: indigenous populations versus migrants - these are longer than wars over government control

How might rebel violence be an organizational by-product?

Weinstein (2002) group organization theory: - if rebel fighters are resource wealthy they will be consumers/opportunistic, thus their discipline will be lax and their level of violence will be higher and abuses against civilians common - if rebel fighters are resource-poor then they are invested in the conflict, committed to the cause/ideology, resulting in strong levels of discipline and discouraged abuses against civilians

Can corruption prevent conflict?

Yes - bribing competing contenders for power instead of entering conflict with them - political corruption can "level the playing field" through elites continuously buying into the system enough to avoid civil war - corruption can be beneficial if it gives an elite access, thus evading organization of rebel group - ex) "vote-buying" in Latin America; proffering to voters of cash or minor consumption goods by political parties in exchange for the recipient's vote

Is the use of terrorist tactics during civil war effective?

more government victories empirically result from rebel groups use of terrorism, and often result in rebel groups not achieving their stated goals However, still used because: 1) Creates media attention, gives rebel group "a name" in society, makes public aware of them 2) it's cheap and has a disproportionate effect on the public with very low stakes (government can't protect population against a random man driving a truck into a crowd, easy to carry out), demonstrates government weakness

Do refugees spread conflict? How?

they can: - refugee warriors/refugee camps serving as a rebel base - economic pressures on host countries (sewage, healthcare, food) can create new social tensions

What are veto players?

those actors/groups needed in order to change policy (parties, specific individuals, interest groups) ex) In Syria, veto players are Syrian government, major rebel groups, international players - ISIS is a spoiler but NOT a veto player

What is the connection between the mode of fighter recruitment and the occurrence of wartime rape?

wartime rape, specifically gang rape, occurs most likely when rebel fighter recruitment happens through abduction and kidnapping, especially for children soldiers, because it is used as a combatant socialization tactic to have them share a common experience - forms loyalty and bonds afterwards