Climate Change

Carbon Dioxide

It accounts for over 80% of all US greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Human activities are altering the carbon cycle both by adding more CO2 to the atmosphere and by influencing the ability of natural sinks, like forests, to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. These activities include electricity, transportation and industry.

Phenology

Phenology is the seasonal timing of biological events, which are mostly triggered by day length or temperature (2 variables). Ex. Certain turtles rely on temperature for distribution of offspring gender (too hot = all females).

Support

The agreement reaffirms the obligations of developed countries to support the efforts of developing country parties to build clean, climate-resilient futures. "Despite Africa's insignificant contribution to the causes of climate change, it is suffering from drought, flooding, climate-induced displacement and other climate-related challenges. The international community should accelerate effects to curb those negative effects" - Abdallah Wafy, Niger's ambassador to the UN.

Permian Extinction

About 250 mil. years ago, 96% of marine animal species died. This was caused by volcanic eruptions that may have produced enough CO2 to warm the global climate by about 6C. The reduced temperature difference between the equator and the poles reduced the mixing of ocean water, dropping oxygen concentration in the water. The temperature differential broke the thermohaline circulation, which is the mechanism that allows ocean currents to exist. After this was broken, an ice age followed not long after.

The Paris Agreement

COP 21 was held on Nov/Dec 2015 in Paris, France. The Paris Agreement - for the first time - brings all nations into a common cause to undertake efforts to fight climate change and adapt to its effects. Its central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperate rise this century well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5C. On December 12, 2015, it was adopted by consensus of 197 countries, which made it an official document. On April 22, 2016 (Earth day), it became open for signature. And in October 2016, 191 UNFCCC members signed the treaty, 81 of which have ratified it. the agreement would reach legal status if ratified by at least 55 countries which together represent at least 55% of global greenhouse emissions. On September 3, 2016, the US and China, the 2 largest CO2 emitters, ratified the agreement. Together they are responsible for about 38% of CO2 emissions. "Some day we may see this as the moment when we decided to save our plant" - Obama The requirement was achieved on October 5, 2016, when the European Union ratified the agreement. The agreement then entered into force on November 4, 2016.

Trump's Presidency and Climate Change

During the National Resources Defense Council (teleconference), they stated that we we will lose time and resources but immediate action is not possible. We are expecting a series of attacks, including Trump naming Scott Pruit, a top climate skeptic, to lead the EPA. At the moment, he is currently suing the EPA for other reasons. Climate science is also in danger: a senior advisor said the new administration will cut back on climate change research, including eliminating funding for NASA's Earth Science division. Controversy: In May 2016, Trump announced a plan to build a sea wall designed to protect one of his gold courses in Ireland from "global warming and its effects". But on December 6, he withdrew his plan.

Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gases are gases that impose the greenhouse effect. Many of them also make up the natural layer around Earth. Most common ones: - Water vapor (H2O) - Carbon dioxide (CO2) - Methane (CH4) - Nitrous Oxide (N2O) - Ozone (O3)

Hurricane Matthew (ex of climate change)

Hurricanes use water as fuel their winds. The water in the part of the Atlantic that Matthew was in was about 1.8 to 2.7F warmer, according to the NOAA. With this, there was more potential for rain, as the warmer air holds more water. Matthew rained more and more intensely than an identical storm occurring 30-40 years ago. Death toll: between September 28th and October 10th 2016: 1,045 (900 in Haiti alone) Economic damage: $4-6 billion in the US warmer water --> more evaporation --> more precipitation and stronger hurricanes

Signature

In terms of the United Nations, a delegates signature expresses the willingness of the state to continue the treaty making process.

Methane

Methane is the second most prevalent greenhouse gas emitted in the US. For domestic livestock (cattle, etc), it is a part of the natural digestive process (byproduct of anaerobic bacteria and archea). It is also naturally produced in wetlands. Additionally, rice plantations, animals' manure (managed in lagoons or tanks) and landfills (bacteria that decompose trash) are other sources that contribute. Methane is also trapped in permafrost as well, which is then released once it melts.

Nitrous Oxide

N2O is emitted when nitrogen is added to the soil through synthetic fertilizers (not a huge emission overall), however, it is a very potent and strong greenhouse gas. Agricultural soil management is the largest source of N2O emissions in the US (roughly 70%). Accounts for 5% of greenhouse gas in the US. It has the highest global warming potential. N2O > CH4 > CO2

Loss and Danage

Nations will develop approaches to help vulnerable countries (don't have resources to pay) cope with the adverse effects and slow-onset events such sea level rise.

Taking action

Roughly every 2 years, authorities meet for the Conference of Parties (COP), held by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Usually not much is accomplished due to nation interests overshadowing the interests on climate change. Popular action: Dec. 8 2014, hundreds of people across New Zealand buried their heads in the sand to send a clear message to the New Zealand Government: get your head out of the sand and do something useful on climate change. This message can be extended to all the worlds as these COPs tend to have a "all talk, weak action" reputation.

Global warming potential

The global warming potential is the magnitude of which a greenhouse gas can cause the greenhouse effect to take place. N2O has the highest, followed by CH4, followed by CO2.

Greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect is where greenhouse gases within Earth's atmosphere trapped heat energy coming from the sun in the form of thermal energy. This process causes the overall temperature of the molecules to increase and retain at that level. This effect is called the greenhouse effect since it essentially has the same effect analogous to a greenhouse. The same concept is seen when you lock your car fully shut and it becomes extremely hot.

Climate Change deniers

The largest climate change deniers are mainly oil companies. Oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and Chevron do this. Also, the Koch Brothers work toward denying climate change, as their entire industry is at stake. The are a major financer of climate change denials and they are America's second largest privately company. They are involved in core industries such as the manufacturing, refining and distribution of petroleum, fertilizers, pulp and paper, etc. They have an annual revenue of around $115 billion. Many politicians and research firms/think tanks are funded by these companies, including the heartland institute.

Antarctica has more ice now than it used to?

This is a half truth. Ice in antarctica has not been growing on the continent itself, where actually ice has been melting. There is, though, more sea ice than there used to be. This is because the melting of fresh water glaciers from land ice has turned sea water less saltier. Fresh water is less dense than saltier water, which would previously com below and melt any sea ice formed. Now, fresh water stays on top, which causes less mixing of ocean layers, and the surface stays cooler for longer.

Temperature increases CO2, CO2 doesn't increase temperature?

To a certain degree, many warming events have happened without CO2 concentrations (ppm) increasing at first due to naturally occurring weather patterns. However, once warming begins, CO2 greatly amplifies the magnitude at which the warming occurs. Of the warming events we have records for, 90% took place after CO2 levels increased.

Desertification

desertification is a type of land degradation. A process which turns productive soil into desert, usually as a result of poor land management and climate change (warmer temperatures/ changes in precipitation patterns). It is usually a result of human activity: rapid population increase has lead to over-utilization of land resources. These include intensification of agriculture and animal husbandry, deforestation, misuse of water resources. 110 countries are affected by desertification. Annually, an area the size of Ukraine is removed from agricultural food production because of desertification. This is ironic, as we try to produce more food, through unsustainable means, leads to lower food production. China is one of the most severely affected countries from the result of climate change: centuries of deforestation and poor land management. They feed 22% of the world's population in 7% of Earth's tillable land. Entire villages in China's north have been lost, submerged in sand. It currently affects 400 mil. Chinese, many of whom lose the ability to farm their land or graze their animals. These people become environmental refugees, who often migrate to the big cities in search of new homes and jobs. Ex. Desertification in Langtou Gou, China, a village 80 miles from Beijing.

Global warming

global warming concentrates on the fact that global temperature has increased on average. It is a phenomenon caused by the greenhouse effect and is seen holistically worldwide (not just in some place). Global warming causes climate change as a result of anthropogenic activities, to which it is not just limited to just global warming. for the most part, global warming looks solely at temperature increase.

fossil fuels

plants and animals from millions of years ago stored with carbon and useful biomass.

Climate change

Climate change considers all the changes occurring in our climate, including precipitation patterns and natural disasters. Climate change is the overall result of anthropogenic activities such as global warming. Examples seen: Mississippi River flooding (2011), Jiangxi province in China (2009), desertification, pacific islands flooding, farming acidity in India, more severe storms, etc.

Climate change is natural, it has happened before?

Climate change does occur over the course of millions of years. For such a change in the climate in such a short period of time is beyond reason. Our CO2 emissions are off the chart (high residual) in terms of what normally would occur during natural climate change.

Ratification

In terms of the United Nations, a ratification is where the state indicates the consent to be bound to a treaty (US and China did ratify the Paris Agreement).

The sun is getting hotter?

No data supports this claim whatsoever. The solar irradiance, a measure of the suns energy on Earth, has remained relatively constant over time. During this period of being constant, we have seen temperature change increase, indicating that the two variables have no association with one another.

Climate Change and Biodiversity

One of the biological consequences of climate change is phenological mismatch. For the purposes of climate change, temperature increase is the main factor that causes issues. This offsets naturally occurring ecological events which throws off the normal circumstances that take place in an ecosystem. Ex. Flowers may blossom before pollinators have emerged. Ex. Eggs may hatch before a dependable food source for young is available. As for k strategists and r strategists, r strategists are more well adapted to climate change as opposed to k strategists because of their ability to reproduce quickly and in large numbers. Disease carriers customarily found in tropic regions are now moving to higher latitudes and elevations since they thrive in warmer temperatures (mosquitoes carrying malaria, yellow fever, dengue fever, Zika virus) The greatest impact of global climate change is affecting organisms that live at high latitudes and high elevations. This is because the current species that live their have no where to go (Ex. Polar bear). Other species from lower latitudes and elevations migrate here and compete with the current populations.

Carbon source vs. carbon sink

Only about 1/2 of all CO2 emitted by fossil fuel consumption and tropical deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere - oceans and terrestrial biosphere take up the rest. However there is a saturation point for oceanic uptake, which causes ocean acidification (higher concentration of CaCO3). Also, more CO2 isn't necessarily better for plants since they too have a saturation point. The plant will not uptake more CO2 than it needs.

Global peaking

Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse emissions as soon as possible. At this point, emissions will hopefully decline and not stay stagnant.

Sinks and Reservoirs

Parties are encouraged to conserve and enhance sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases. Encouraging reforestation and keeping green areas are a few ways to do this.

Mitigation

Parties must communicate their nationally determined contributions every 5 years and provide information necessary for clarity and transparency.

Environmental refugees

People who are forced to migrate to big cities in search of new homes and jobs due to changes in their current home's environment. This can include flooding, desertification, sever storms, acidification, etc.

Nationally Determined Contributions

Ratifying countries can independently decide on how to lower their emissions. This is a big deal: previous attempts at a climate deal required that similar measures be adopted by all singing parties (Kyoto Protocol, 1997). Because economies, cultures, and nations differ so greatly, a common denominator was hard to determine, and therefore, hard to achieve. Allowing ratifying countries to determine the best way forward for them, individually, galvanized support for the agreement. Pledges taken by World's biggest emitters: - US: To reduce emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by the year 2025. - China: To peak its emissions and obtain 20% of all its energy from non-fossil sources by 2030. - European Union: To cut its emissions by at least 40% by 2030. Pledges taken by developing countries: - Brazil: Emissions cut of 37% over the next decade, pledging to halt illegal deforestation in the Amazon by 2030. - India: Triple its renewable energy capacity by 2022, targeting 40% of its power to come from non-fossil sources by 2030. - Ethiopia and many other African countries said they planned to vastly expand wind, solar and hydro power, and to reforest large areas.

Scientists are just "cherry picking" the data supporting climate change?

Science communities cannot selectively skew data into their the direction of their bias. Data supporting climate change has been coming from every branch of science. In biology, migrations are causing animals to range farther north; in epidemiology, disease range has spread further; in agriculture, yields have been increasing in temperate areas; in environmental science, water temperature has increased, snowfall has decreased and sea levels have risen.

Temperature increase

The current temperature increase since pre-industrial era is about 1.0C (1.5F). AS of right now, we are still adding to it. At about 2.0C (3.6F), we should be very concerned. Although we still should be concerned right now, then we will be reaching catastrophic levels. This number, however, has caused a huge debate over environmental and economic discussion. An increase about 2C above pre-industrial levels is believed to take the world into uncharted territory, with potentially unforeseen consequences in terms of extreme weather and climate feedback. With temperatures this year at times getting so close to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, the key threshold of 2C no longer seems remote or intangible. Scientists then started looking at the effects at 4C by 2100, which would take us to the highest temperature in the last 30 mil. years. In addition to causing hundreds of millions of refugees, which we already see happening today, the sea level would rise by roughly 3-6 feet and persistent drought would occur in over 40% of inhabited land. Furthermore, extinction of half of all known species would take place (6th great mass extinction), and self-perpetuating positive feedback loops would continue out of control.

The data of climate change are wrong because of urban heat island?

The data for climate change is not limited to just cities; it has been sampled from many areas of the world of all different types of environments. Hence, the data are representative of the entire world, and therefore, we can statistically draw inference regarding the entire globe. The increase in temperature shows up in weather stations placed in cities and rural ares, as well as in satellite data and thermometers in oceans.

Long-term temperature goal

The long term temperature goal aims to limit global temperature increase to well below 2C, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5C. 2C is most reasonable the agreement wants to take, but most ideal is 1.5C.

Limitations to the Agreement

The money so far pledged by rich countries is nowhere near enough to allow developing countries to adapt to expected sea level rises and more extreme weather. A UN report calculated that the cost for all developing countries to adapt to climate change could go as high as $500 billion a year by 2050. Rich countries have agreed to mobilize $ 100 billion a year from 2020 onwards but the details are still vague. Even so, the historic measures pledged in Paris last year by the big greenhouse gas emitters like Europe, US, and China set the world on track to a temperature rise of about 3C over the next 50 years - enough to render many poor countries uninhabitable.

Denying cliamte change

There are many cliche arguments used to oppose climate change. Many of these arguments may seem plausible, but are essential only half true. One argument is only partially true and attempts to make a non-sensical extrapolation to infer something else denying climate change. In many cases, the data don't actually support the claim, and in other cases, there is absolutely no evidence for such claims whatsoever.

The Earth is actually cooling?

There is no evidence to support this notion. 2000-2010 was the hottest decade ever recorded. Certain areas of the world went through phases of cooling, however, looking holistically at the entire world, drastically more places went through phases of warming. The redistribution of weather patterns causes these certain locations to cool, but overall, more places experienced warming.

It snowed all of ver the US?

This is also a half truth. Yes, it did now more in certain parts of the US. "global warming" is not "local warming"; we must look at the big picture (at the entire world). The US takes up 1.9% of the world's area. This does not represent the entire Earth statistically speaking. As a result of climate change, severe snowstorms are predicted to become more frequent due to climate change in certain areas. However, most of the world reached record warming spots or spots of severe warming as opposed to record cooling or severe cooling (change in weather pattern distribution).

Strangely optimistic

Trump has vowed to withdraw us from the Paris Deal despite it now being international law. In the past, Regan and Bush proposed similar proposals to retrieve accomplishments from previous presidencies, but with popular pressure, they saw it wasn't worth their energy and political time. About 71% of Americans support the Paris Deal. It is about a 3-4 year process to back off, regardless of which action he might take. Concern: as Obama ratified through an executive order, Trump may try to retrieve the same way. Since the Paris Agreement has officially entered into force, the goal remains regardless of the US and its position. Much international pressure would be expected because of the burden added to ratified countries. International market is driving toward cleaner energy; the US may not be able to handle the economic burden of all the renewable energy industry going to China if they leave. Political power may be overshadowed by market pressure.