Cumulative Quizzes

You flip a fair coin. If it comes up heads (probability: 1/2) you win $4. If it comes up tails (probability: 1/2) you lose $2. What is the expected value of this bet? Fill in the blank with: $X (where X is a number).

$1

It makes sense to suppose that having the government give families $1000 vouchers to use to pay for a school of their choice will improve public school performance. It's the market. If schools aren't effective, they'll get no students and they'll lose money. So public schools that have to compete against private schools will end up improving. What's the conclusion?

$1000 vouchers will improve public school performance

Your final grade will be determined by your scores (and not Bishop's judgment) on the following assignments:

(Q) assignments (E) assignments

Your final grade will be determined by Bishop's judgment (and not your scores) on the following assignments:

(R) assignments (P) assignments

It's possible for a causal argument to be a practical argument.

False

For any assignment you complete on Canvas, including (P) participation and (R) reading assignments, Bishop can tell when you started the assignment, when you ended the assignment, how long you spent on each question, and whether you left the screen during the assignment. This is information he will use in assigning you a final (P) and (R) grade in this course.

True

What's the difference between a (theoretical) argument (as we're using the term in this class) and a firmly stated opinion?

- "Elvis is alive" is an opinion (which you might state firmly). "Elvis is alive because he had a soul and all souls are immortal" is an argument for the opinion. - A theoretical argument offers reasons to accept an opinion (a conclusion). It's not just the opinion.

Check all and only truths.

- A practical argument has the form: Reasons R is sufficient for S (a person or group) to do D. - The conclusion of a practical argument can sometimes be put in the following terms: It's true that you should do D (because there are good reasons for you to do D). - The conclusion of a theoretical argument can sometimes be put in the following terms: You should believe fact F (because F is true). - A theoretical argument has the form: Reason R is sufficient evidence that F is true.

Suppose the following are all conclusions of arguments. Identify all and only the conclusions of practical arguments.

- Add a little rum to your French toast batter. - You should practice math under the guidance of a good tutor.

Check all and only truths.

- All theoretical arguments propose reasons that are sufficient to think that something is true. - All practical arguments propose reasons that are sufficient for someone (or some group) to do something.

The opportunity cost principle (the REAL principle, not the application of it that we're going to focus on for the rest of this class): Which of the following state the principle?

- Any time you make a choice, you lose out on doing the best thing you might have done (but didn't). - Every decision you make - coming to class (rather than going to lunch with your friends), going to the party (rather than studying, etc. - has an opportunity cost. It is the cost of (the best) option that you missed out on.

If you are absent, what does this mean for that day's participation assignments? (Check all and only truths.)

- As always, if your absence is excused, you should put a note in "Issues & Absences." Even if your absence is not technically excused, if you think I should know why you missed class, you should put a note in "Issues & Absences." - You cannot "make up" that day's participation assignments. Either your absence was excused (in which case missing the (P) assignments won't hurt your grade) or your absence was not excused (in which case missing the (P) assignment will hurt your grade). - You are allowed to complete some (P) assignments after class. And sometimes it will be in your interest to complete these assignments. (They can be helpful for future quizzes.) BUT completing (P) assignments after class will make no difference to your (P) grade. Either your absence was unexcused (in which case you will still get a zero) or your absence was excused (in which case you are excused from doing the assignment).

Check all and only the passages that are reasonably interpreted as arguments. (Note: They don't have to be GOOD arguments!)

- Bishop said there's going to be a quiz today in class, so there's going to be a quiz today in class. - You should pay attention to what's happening in class because it will help you do well on the quiz.

Which of the following violate the opportunity cost principle (as we're applying it in this class)?

- Building a wall between the US and Canada will bring some advantages. So we should build a wall between the US and Canada. - Building a wall between the US and Canada will bring more advantages than disadvantages. So we should build a wall between the US and Canada.

Identify the conclusions of these arguments. But some of these passages might not be arguments. When it's an argument, state what kind of argument it is. Bullfighting is cruel to the bull. It involves tormenting the bull for quite a while and then often it takes quite a while for the bullfighter to actually kill the bull.

- Conclusion: Bullfighting is cruel to the bull - This is a theoretical argument. Bullfighting should be outlawed because bullfighting is cruel to the bull. - Conclusion: Bullfighting should be outlawed. - This is a practical argument. If you want to be a bullfighter, you need courage and a lot of training. - Conclusion: Trick question. This is not an argument. - This is not an argument.

A good rule of thumb about when to contact your Prof and when to contact your TA is:

- Contact Prof when you have a question about: any assignment NOT graded by TA - Contact TA when you have a question about: an assignment graded by TA (typically essay assignments and essay questions on quizzes)

When Bishop is assigning you your final (P) grade at the end of the semester, he will have access to the following information about each and every one of your participation assignments. (Check all and only truths.)

- Did you leave the screen? (He will want to know: Was your attention divided?) - What time you started the participation assignment. (He will want to know: Did you start the assignment roughly when everyone else did?) - How long you spent answering each question. (He will want to know: Were you working along with the class or your group on the assignment?) - What time you submitted the participation assignment. (He will want to know: Did you submit the assignment roughly when everyone else did?)

More prospect theory stuff. Identify all and only the true statements about the graph.

- Diminishing marginal utility is evident in the bending of the left-handed curve toward the horizon - Diminishing marginal utility is evident in the bending of the right handed curve toward the horizon

I have taken Spanish I and II, and barely passed. My major requires that I take an Intermediate course in a foreign language. If I pursue Spanish, I would need only one more class, but I fear that if I take it, I will fail. I recently found a new love and passion for American Sign Language and I happen to be really good at it. I know that I could pass ASL I, II, and Intermediate. But to pursue ASL would require two extra courses (3 ASL courses instead of just one Spanish course). Which of the following considerations violate the sunk cost principle: (Check all and only truths)

- I have spent so much time, energy, effort, money, and tears studying Spanish it would be foolhardy to throw that away. - If I switch to ASL the total time commitment will be 5 classes (2 Spanish, 3 ASL), whereas if I stick with Spanish the total time commitment will be 1 class (Intermediate Spanish) - I should take ASL. Even though the cost of taking Spanish I and II were great, that cost will be more than compensated for by the advantages of taking ASL.

I have taken Spanish I and II, and barely passed. My major requires that I take an Intermediate course in a foreign language. If I pursue Spanish, I would need only one more class, but I fear that if I take it, I will fail. I recently found a new love and passion for American Sign Language and I happen to be really good at it. I know that I could pass ASL I, II, and Intermediate. But to pursue ASL would require two extra courses (3 ASL courses instead of just one Spanish course). What does the sunk cost principle say about this case?

- I should not take the Spanish courses I've already taken to be a consideration that weighs in favor or against (even a little tiny bit) taking intermediate Spanish or ASL. - The sunk cost principle says nothing about whether I should take intermediate Spanish or ASL.

If you have an excused absence on the day an essay (E) assignment is due, what does this mean? (Check all and only truths.)

- If the nature of your excused absence makes it impossible for you to complete the assignment on time (e.g., it was a health or family emergency that lasted for days), you should contact Bishop about getting an extension. - The default expectation is that you will hand in your essay on time. (IOW: This will be the normal expectation unless the nature of the absence made it impossible for you to complete the essay on time.)

Sammy the Scientist conducts a study to assess whether capital punishment prevents violent crime. Group 1: States with capital punishment. Group 2: Similar states without capital punishment.

- If violence grows at about the same rate in the control and experimental groups, then this suggests that: capital punishment does not have an effect on violent crime - If violence grows more in the experimental group than in the control group then this suggests that: capital punishment causes an increase in violent crime - Group 1 is the: experimental group - If violence grows more in the control group than in the experimental group then this suggests that: capital punishment causes a decrease in violent crime - Group 2 is the: control group

(R) assignments have a soft deadline. What does this mean? (Answer all and only truths.)

- If you consistently hand in (R) assignments a few hours late (but before class) and you have an excellent excuse for this that you put in "Issues & Absences" (e.g., you have a job that forces you to work late nights), this won't be a problem. - If you hand in a couple (R) assignments late (but before class starts), this won't be a problem.

To be able to distinguish practical and theoretical arguments, you must be able to do 2 things. (1) Identify the conclusion of an argument. (2) Determine whether the conclusion is a claim about what is (was, will be, might be) the case or whether the conclusion is a claim about what someone should do. It's the difference between a (potential) FACT and a (good or bad) RECOMMENDATION. For the following claims, check those that are about what is (was, will be, might be) the case.

- If you don't break up with Robin, you will regret it. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of your life. - Alex will break up with Robin - Alex will be happier if they break up with Robin

I am the Employment Director at Large Corporation. And Large Co. is about to hire a bunch of recent college graduates, as we do every year. In a recent meeting, the new vice president, Joe Veep, argues that Large Co. should hire only from six well-known colleges in the northeast (rather than doing a search across the whole country as they always have done in the past). And the reason is that this will reduce search costs. I've looked at the numbers and I'm positive Joe is right about the search costs: If Large Co. only searched in a few small northeastern states, the company would save at of money on travel costs. After considerable reflection, I decide to accept Joe's argument and I implement the new hiring plan. What can be said about Joe's argument? Answer one word only (no punctuation): Yes or No.

- Joe's argument is a causal argument. No. - Joe's argument is a practical argument. Yes. - Joe's argument is a theoretical argument. No. - Joe's argument needs and lacks a control. No - Joe's argument suffers from the problem of hidden evidence. No. - Joe's argument violates the opportunity cost principle (as we're applying it in this class). Yes.

I am the Employment Director at Large Corporation. And Large Co. is about to hire a bunch of recent college graduates, as we do every year. In a recent meeting, the new vice president, Joe Veep, contends that a policy of hiring from a geographically limited range of universities will result in lower search costs and equally good candidates. Joe presents a bunch of evidence to the effect that over the past 15 years, Large Co. has used two different policies for hiring. For seven of the past 15 years, they hired from a geographically limited range. And for eight of the past 15 years, they hired from all over the US. Using the standards favored by Large Co., the job ratings of candidates hired in these two ways are basically equal. And the company's search costs in the years they did a limited search were half (50%) of the search costs when they did a national search. After presenting this evidence, Joe concludes that conducting a limited search will bring more benefits (lower costs) without more costs (equally good candidates). What can be said about Joe's argument? Answer one word only (no punctuation): Yes or No.

- Joe's argument is a causal argument. Yes - Joe's argument is a practical argument. No - Joe's argument is a theoretical argument. Yes - Joe's argument has a control and an experimental group. Yes - Joe's argument suffers from the problem of hidden evidence. No - Joe's argument violates the opportunity cost principle (as we're applying it in this class). No

More prospect theory. Identify all and only the true statements about the graph.

- Loss aversion is represented by the fact that the "loss" curve is steeper than the "gain" curve

If I believe that X causes Y (say, my lucky shirt causes me to play my best tennis), what am I committed to?

- My lucky shirt makes a difference to the world. In particular, it makes a (positive) difference to the quality of my play. - If I played 2 games in EXACTLY the same circumstances EXCEPT for the shirt that I wore, I'd play better (or at least tend to play better) in my lucky shirt.

Recently, Joe started a new diet where a company send you meals you can warm up in the microwave. While we don't know anything about Joe's life before he started the diet, while Joe is on the diet he has a pretty bad rash on his shoulder. The diet is causing the rash.

- No control group (but there might have been)

Here are some excellent ways to get a really bad (P) grade. (Check all and only truths.)

- Rush through the (P) assignment so you can get back to playing Fortnite. (Really, Fortnite?) - Consistently start (P) assignments late because you had to finish watching your most recent Netflix binge. - Work on your reading assignments in class. - Don't come to class and don't put (good) excuses in "Issues & Absences" about why you missed class.

Here are some excellent ways to get a really bad (R) grade.

- Rush through the reading. (But maybe leave the assignment open for 56 hours. That will trick Bishop into thinking you put in a LOT of effort.) - Consistently hand in readings late without good reason. - Don't work to understand the reading, guess at the answers. - Put off doing the readings until after week 10 of the semester.

People have a general tendency to be too careful with the following sorts of Mental Accounts:

- Special Purpose

What are some items you might include in "Issues & Absences"?

- Technical troubles w/ Canvas, wifi, computer... - Explanation for why you got an answer wrong that you think prof should know about - Technically unexcused absence that you think the prof should know about. Even if it's "I overslept today but it won't happen again!" - Any words you'd like the prof to keep in mind before assigning you a final grade. - Excused absence (w/ or w/o documentation)

A good argument from samples has the following structure:

- The (always) explicit premise (that is, the premise that's always stated) is: X is true of this sample (from a population) - The conclusion always is: X is true of the population (approximately, or within a margin of error) - The (often) implicit premise (that is, the premise that's often not stated) is: The sample is a representative sample from the population - This premise may or may not be part of the argument: The sample is a large random sample drawn from the population

Suppose the following are all conclusions of arguments. Identify all and only the conclusions of theoretical arguments.

- The best way to get good at math is to practice under the guidance of a good tutor. - If you want to make French toast that Sam will love, add a little rum to the batter.

Suppose the following are the CONCLUSION of an argument. What kind of argument would that be?

- The best way to play an F chord on a guitar if you can't make a bridge is to play a Dm7: theoretical argument. - Your favorite restaurant, The Greasy Spoon, is really expensive and has terrible food: theoretical argument. - We shouldn't go to your favorite restaurant, The Greasy Spoon, for breakfast: practical argument. - If you want to make a lot of money, you should major in chemical engineering: theoretical argument. - If you want to have a successful relationship, you're going to have to learn to disagree without being disagreeable: theoretical argument.

What's the difference between a (practical) argument and the claim: "The best way to get to class is to come in the front door of Bellamy Hall."

- The claim about Bellamy Hall doesn't say anything about what anyone should do. A practical argument always has as its conclusion a claim about what someone (or some group) should do. - The claim might be a premise in a practical argument. (For example: "You want to get to class; the best way to get to class is to come in the front door of Bellamy Hall. And so you should go through the front door of Bellamy Hall.") But the claim is not, by itself, a practical argument.

What can we say about causal arguments (as we're using that expression in this class)?

- The conclusion is a causal claim. - To support a causal claim, X causes Y, you need controlled evidence. In this class, that means: Evidence of what happens when X is present and what happens when X is absent (and everything else is held constant).

Why did you evaluate Joe's argument the way you did? Fill in the blanks:

- The conclusion of Joe's argument is that: DM should expand into the Atlanta market - This is a suggested course of action. - And so this is a practical argument. - On the assumption that the premises of Joe's argument are true, you evaluated this as a good argument because I didn't think it was a good argument - On the assumption that the premises of Joe's argument are true, you evaluated this as a bad argument because: It violates the OCP and so the reasons offered are not sufficient for DM to expand into the Atlanta market - And the ultimate reason for your evaluation is: There may be other alternatives that are far better for DM than the Atlanta market. And so the question should at least be raised

Check all and only truths.

- The conclusion of a theoretical argument can sometimes be put in the following terms: You should believe fact F (because F is true). - The conclusion of a practical argument can sometimes be put in the following terms: It's true that you should do D (because there are good reasons for you to do D).

If you have an excused absence on the day an essay (R) assignment is due, what does this mean? (Check all and only truths.)

- The default expectation is that you will hand in your reading assignment on time. (IOW: This will be the normal expectation unless the nature of the absence made it impossible for you to complete the reading assignment on time.) - If the nature of your excused absence makes it impossible for you to complete the reading assignment on time (e.g., it was a health or family emergency that lasted for days), you should complete the reading assignment as soon as you reasonably can, you should make sure you complete your reading assignment responsibly (don't rush through it just because it's late!), and you should put a note about this in "Issues & Absences."

Here is the prospect theory graph. Identify all and only the true statements about the graph.

- The horizontal (across) axis stands for (how you understand your) $$ or other valuable things - The vertical (up-and-down) axis stands for positive (YAY) or negative (UGH) psychological impact.

Suppose the following are all conclusions of arguments. Identify all and only the conclusions of theoretical arguments.

- The most successful sports franchise in US history is the NY Yankees. - Wearing a high quality mask lowers the risk you'll get covid. - If you want to finish a marathon, you should train for at least 3 months beforehand.

There's this new diet where a company send you meals you can warm up in the microwave. The problem is that these meals are going to give you very serious stomach problems. You see, diet food tastes bad. And so they inevitably have to put chemicals in the diet food to make it edible. Otherwise people will quit the diet and the company won't make any money.

- There can't be a control group since there's no experimental group - a control group is DEFINED in terms of an experimental group. (A control group is relevantly similar to THE EXPERIMENTAL GROUP except for X.) - No experimental group (narrative)

Joe has always had a fairly healthy digestive system. He seldom gets sick to his stomach. Recently, Joe started a new diet where a company send you meals you can warm up in the microwave. Within days of starting this new diet, Joe starts to have very serious stomach problems. Joe thinks the meals sent by the diet company are making him sick.

- There is a control group and it's (at least) pretty good

Fill in each blank with one word, no punctuation: Yes or No. The Decider Principle says or implies:

- Think about high-variability, high-resource-availability decisions: Yes - When you face a decision, you should reflect and make a deliberate decision: No - Use reasoning short-cuts on decisions where all your reasonable options are about equally good (or bad): Yes. - Think about decisions that you have the resources to think about and that potentially make a significant difference to your life: Yes. - Think about decisions that are hard because they require lots of resource availability and are inevitably high variability: No. - Never use reasoning short-cuts. No. Use reasoning short-cuts on decisions that you don't have the resources to think about: Yes.

Prior to 2021, the NYC subway systems had never gotten shut down by a hurricane that came up through the Gulf of Mexico. In 2021, Hurricane Ida came up through the Gulf of Mexico and hit NYC. Therefore, NYC subway did not get shut down by Hurricane Ida. (Assume the premises are true. The conclusion is false.) What can we say about this argument?

- This argument is a theoretical argument - This is a good argument to a false conclusion

It's possible for people to save endangered species because the people intervened to save the California Condor. Check all and only truths.

- This is a theoretical argument - This is an argument.

You paid $30 to see Rae Sremmurd at the homecoming concert next Wednesday. But you have a midterm at 8 am the next morning and you're not feeling 100%. Your best options are to stay home and study or go to the concert. You decide to stay home and study and not go to the concert because the cost of not going to the concert (the $30 you spent) is more than compensated for by the benefit of staying home (you won't be miserable and you'll do well on the test). Which of the following evaluations of this reasoning as described (for why you stayed home) are appropriate?

- This reasoning as described violates the sunk cost principle - This reasoning as described does not violate the opportunity cost principle

The Decider Principle says or implies:

- Use reasoning short-cuts on decisions where all your reasonable options are about equally good (or bad). - Think about decisions that you have the resources to think about and that potentially make a significant difference to your life. - Use reasoning short-cuts on decisions that you don't have the resources to think about.

When Bishop is assigning you your final (R) grade at the end of the semester, he will have access to the following information about each and every one of your reading assignments. (Check all and only truths.)

- What time you started the reading assignment. - When you left the screen, and when you came back to the screen. (And fyi: Bishop doesn't care if you take breaks during the reading. But if you answer all the questions in 3 minutes and leave the screen open for 3 hours trying to "trick" Bishop into thinking you worked really hard on the assignment, Bishop is going to know what you're doing.) - Bishop will be able to figure out whether you're working on your reading assignment in class. (Don't do that. It will hurt your participation grade.) - What time you submitted the reading assignment. - How long you spent answering each question.

There's the real opportunity cost principle ("Every decision has opportunity costs"). But in this class, we're going to mostly focus on how to apply this principle to real-life cases. It takes some judgment to figure out how to apply the opportunity cost principle to real-life cases. In this class, how are we applying the principle?

- When a decision is worth thinking about (it is high-variance and high-resource-availability), you should at least try to consider your reasonable, best options.

More prospect theory: What do the red and green lines on these two curves show? (Identify all and only the lessons drawn about about the red and green lines.)

- When you compare how much gaining a certain amount of money (or any commodity) feels good to how much losing the same amount of money (or commodity) feels bad: the bad feeling is more powerful - Loss aversion

C = Causal argument N = Not a causal argument

- Wild dancing causes me to sweat. N - Biggie Burgers cause me indigestion. So let's go to Pickin' Chicken instead. N - Dan has very stable habits. He eats the same thing every day. Last Sunday, Dan changed things up and ate at Biggie Burger, and he got pretty bad indigestion afterwards. Biggie Burgers give Dan indigestion. C - Cutting taxes will cause the economy to grow and get out of this recession. So we should cut taxes. N - We cut tax rates 3 years ago and tax revenues have grown. That shows that cutting tax rates makes tax revenues grow. C

If you are absent, what does this mean for that day's quiz? (Check all and only truths.)

- You cannot make up the quiz. - If you have more than two excused absences, you should contact Bishop about your (Q) grades. If you do not, then your quiz grade will be lower than it should be because you'll be getting a 0 for not taking a quiz even though you have an excused absence. - Your two lowest quiz grades will be dropped. And so as long as you don't miss more than 2 classes, your absences will make no difference to your (Q) grade.

Suppose the following are all conclusions of arguments. Identify all and only the conclusions of practical arguments.

- You should wear a high quality mask when you're in an enclosed space with lots of other people. - The US should not require people to show proof of vaccination before boarding an airplane.

Identify all the tricks suggested here to doing well on the quizzes:

- You will get to see what answers you got right and wrong on old quizzes. So don't make the same mistake twice. - Understand the readings. - Pay attention in class.

A high-variability decision is: (Check all and only truths)

- a decision where your choices don't have (roughly) equally good outcomes - a decision where your choices have a pretty wide range of outcomes along the good-bad scale

You get a $40 gift certificate and you use it to buy these shoes you have been wanting but you hadn't bought because you didn't want to spend your hard earned paycheck on shoes you don't really need. This is an example of:

- mental accounting (windfall) - mental accounting (funny money) - violating the opportunity costs principle (probably) - practical reasoning (argument) - violating the fungibility principle

The notion of UTILITY is introduced because (check all true answers):

- money isn't the only thing most people value - if you assume utility is getting what you want, and you make some HIGHLY idealized assumptions, you can build a beautiful mathematical model of rational decision-making (THIS IS TRUE: you can study this if you take microeconomics or decision theory)

Here's the basic idea behind plagiarism:

- plagiarism is taking someone else's words or ideas and trying to trick people into thinking the words or ideas are your own. - plagiarism is intellectual theft: you're using someone else's words or ideas as if they were your own

The decider principle days:

- reflect on problems when you can (you have the resources) and its worth it (what you conclude will make a difference to your life) - use a short-cut when you don't have time to think about a problem

You're a real estate magnate. The premise of this argument is true. 1. Buying the apartment on Park Avenue will bring $400,000 profit per year. 2. We should buy the apartment building on Park Avenue. What is true about this argument?

- the premise does not support the conclusion - this is a practical argument - the argument violates the opportunity cost principle

Check all the true claims about theoretical arguments:

- the premises always support the conclusion in a good theoretical argument - conclusion is about some (alleged) fact about the world

The Decider Principle says: (Note: Choose all and only the right answers)

- think about decisions that you have the resources to think about and that potentially make a significant difference to your life - think about high-variability, high-resource-availability decisions - use reasoning short cuts on decisions that are low resource, low variability, or both

1. Everyone from Miami is a dancer. 2. Alex is from Miami. 3. Alex is a dancer. Premise 1 is false. Premise 2 and the conclusion are true. What is true about this argument?

- this is a theoretical argument - this is a bad argument because not all of the premises are true - the premises support the conclusion

The requirements on a good argument are:

- true premises (though in practice, we'll accept plausible premises) - premises that give us sufficient reason to accept the conclusion

A deference short-cut is: (Check all and only truths)

- when you put your judgment or decision in someone else's hands. - sometimes a good short-cut for low-resource decisions.

People have a general tendency to be too wasteful with the following sorts of Mental Accounts:

- windfall - funny money

There is no such thing as a "Causal pragmatic argument." This is incoherent. A causal argument (by definition) has as its...

...conclusion a causal claim. And causal claims are not action-recommendations. They are descriptive claims about the way the world is.

In this class, when we say a causal argument is NOT BAD (or even PRETTY GOOD), it follows that...

...we have at least some reason to think the causal conclusion is true.

If a decision's imperative...

...you have reasons comparative.

Every dollar in your name...

..is worth the same.

1. Good practical argument 2. Theoretical argument 3. Good theoretical argument 4. Practical argument

1. Reason R (really) is sufficient to do D. 2. Proposal that reason R is sufficient to believe that B. 3. Reason R (really) is sufficient to believe that B. 4. Proposal that reason R is sufficient to do D.

When people propose an argument, sometimes they leave out certain parts of the argument because they think they're obvious. The question to ask yourself is: Is this passage proposing a reason to do or believe something? They might leave out a reason (premise): Example: "Bishop said we're having a quiz in class today, and professors are usually accurate about such matters. So we're having a quiz today." 1. What's the conclusion? 2. What's a stated premise? 3. What's an UNstated premise? But an argument might also leave out a conclusion: Example: "If it's Tuesday, we're having a quiz. And guess what? It's Tuesday!" 4. What's a stated premise? 5. What's the UNstated conclusion?

1. We are having a quiz today. 2. Bishop said we're having a quiz today., Professors are usually accurate about such matters., Professors are usually accurate about whether there's a quiz in their classes. 3. Bishop is the professor of today's class. 4. If it's Tuesday, we're having a quiz., It's Tuesday. 5. We're having a quiz.

The participation assignments make up what percentage of the final course grade?

20%

The reading assignments make up what percentage of the final course grade?

30%

The quizzes make up what percentage of the final course grade?

40%

There are two essays due. The two essays count equally toward your final grade. How much is each individual essay, by itself, worth?

5%

An argument (as we're going to use the expression in this class) is what?

A proposal: A person proposes reasons (premises) that are sufficient to accept a conclusion.

What is a strawman violation of the opportunity cost principle?

An argument for an option that considers only a terrible alternative (or alternatives).

If you take this class online, you are expected to have your camera on.

And the professor is able to monitor whether you have your camera on or not, and this will play a role in your (P) grade.

How will your (P) grade be determined?

At the end of the semester, Bishop will look at your participation assignments closely, and Bishop will give you a score out of 20. After he's assigned you a score, you'll have an opportunity to email Bishop and object to the score he gave you.

How will your (R) grade be determined?

At the end of the semester, Bishop will look at your reading assignments closely, and Bishop will give you a score out of 30. After he's assigned you a score, you'll have an opportunity to email Bishop and object to the score he gave you.

A poll of 500 randomly chosen college students was conducted during finals week to assess how many hours college students slept per night. It turns out that college students sleep only about 5 hours per night!

BS

Bob wanted to know the number of students from his school that were from beach towns. He decided to conduct a survey and stood right outside of the Union to ask the people that walked out where they were from. He was unaware, however, that the Surf Club had just been released from their monthly meeting.

BS (Bas Sampling argument)

Eating too many burgers prevents you from being healthy.

Casual claim

Companies similar to ours and in our situation that invested early in new technologies made long-term profits, while companies that didn't ended up in the long run going out of business. So investing in new technologies now will bring about greater long-term profits for our company.

Causal (theoretical) argument

A study at Virginia Tech found that visual-manual cell phone tasks (that is, entering data into your cell phone such as a phone number or a text) triples your chances of getting into a crash. Texting while driving causes accidents.

Causal argument

A firm handshake wins respect in the business world.

Causal claim

Affirmative action helps minorities get ahead.

Causal claim

Capital punishment deters murder.

Causal claim

Flipping the switch turns on the light.

Causal claim

The car smashed into the tree because the driver was texting and so wasn't paying attention to the road.

Causal claim

Suppose you have two options. The expected value of option 1 is $2 and the expected value of option 2 is $4, what does this mean?

Do 1 over and over and you'll average $2 per decision. Do 2 over and over and you'll average $4 per decision.

Last week, Dylan's friend Terwilliger agreed to bet on who'd win the KC-Cincy game. As a result of thinking about the situation, Dylan came to the conclusion that it was a good idea to bet on KC. And so he did. (Side point: KC were a 7 point favorite.) What can we say about Dylan's reasoning?

Dylan's argument (that concluded: it's a good idea to bet on KC) was a practical argument. KC lost and Dylan lost the bet. So it's fair to say that the conclusion of Dylan's argument ended up not working out (in hindsight, it wasn't a good idea for him to bet on KC). As a result, we can say for sure that: we can't evaluate Dylan's argument.

The conclusion of an argument Dylan gave last week was: KC will beat Cincy in the game. (And just fyi: KC, despite being favored, lost the game. So the conclusion of Dylan's argument was false.)

Dylan's argument was a theoretical argument. Because the conclusion of Dylan's argument was false, we can say for sure that: we can't evaluate Dylan's argument only knowing the conclusion was false.

What is each type of assignment worth in terms of your final grade?

E = 10% R = 30% Q = 40% P = 20%

My grandparents live in a retirement community known as "Boomer-ville" where they hang out with other boomers who share their general view of the world. This is why they were surprised to discover that I stopped coming to Thanksgiving dinner because of their views. They're shocked to find that other people might think very differently about the world.

EC

Ordinary

Everyday money. What's in your wallet. For most people: Money earned by working.

When my mom's friends were younger, they'd pop their knuckles. Now that they are older, they a lot of them have arthritis. There you have it. If you pop your knuckles, you'll get arthritis.

Experimental group? Yes. Control group? No.

At the end of the semester, when the Professor is deciding on 50% of your grade (that is, your [P] and [R] grades), he will go back over the hundreds of emails he received over the course of the semester to try to find the ones you sent him about your situation in this class.

False

Canvas automatically drops your two lowest quiz grades when it calculates your (Q) grade.

False

Canvas will give you a (roughly) accurate assessment of your (P) grade.

False

Canvas will give you a (roughly) accurate assessment of your (R) grade.

False

If you don't at least TRY to consider all your options prior to making a choice, you have violated the opportunity cost principle.

False

If you don't consider all your options prior to making a choice, you have violated the opportunity cost principle.

False

If you miss the deadline on an (R) assignment, you cannot hand in a reading assignment late and receive credit.

False

If you want to meet me for office hours on Zoom, you should send me an email asking to meet for office hours.

False

In calculating your (E) grade, Canvas will count any extra credit you receive as extra credit.

False

In this class, we're assuming that people have sufficient reason to believe B only when they have 100% proof that B is true.

False

It makes sense to suppose that having the government give families $1000 vouchers to use to pay for a school of their choice will improve public school performance. It's the market. If schools aren't effective, they'll get no students and they'll lose money. So public schools that have to compete against private schools will end up improving. This is a causal argument. There is an experimental group: REAL WORLD evidence (not stuff the person has made up in a story) about what happens when parents have $1000 vouchers.

False

It makes sense to suppose that having the government give families $1000 vouchers to use to pay for a school of their choice will improve public school performance. It's the market. If schools aren't effective, they'll get no students and they'll lose money. So public schools that have to compete against private schools will end up improving. This is a narrative, and it is a bad argument. That means the conclusion ($1000 vouchers will improve public school performance) is false.

False

Large Co. is in a very tricky tax situation. In a board meeting, Joe Veep argues that the company should make an investment in new technology that is going to lead to the company losing $1 million over the next five years. In response to objections from the board, Joe notes that not investing in the new technology is going to lead to far bigger losses, and investing in different technologies (which is definitely possible) will be more costly and bring fewer long-term benefits. The conclusion of this argument is: Large Co should invest in new technology (which will lead to a $1 million loss over the next 5 years). This is a theoretical argument.

False

Large Co. is in a very tricky tax situation. In a board meeting, Joe Veep argues that the company should make an investment in new technology that is going to lead to the company losing $1 million over the next five years. In response to objections from the board, Joe notes that not investing in the new technology is going to lead to far bigger losses, and investing in different technologies (which is definitely possible) will be more costly and bring fewer long-term benefits. This is a practical argument. Up until now, we've only considered one problem with practical arguments. (This will change soon!) This argument violates the opportunity cost principle.

False

Sam gives you reasons to think that there's a 20% chance that your car won't start today. This can't be a theoretical argument because Sam has not proposed sufficient reasons to think that your car won't start today.

False

Sam is making a decision and he considers three options. It follows that Sam has not violated the opportunity cost principle.

False

Sam is making a decision and he considers two options. It follows that Sam has not violated the opportunity cost principle.

False

Sam is making a decision and he only considers one option. It follows that Sam has violated the opportunity cost principle.

False

Suppose you say this: "Kansas City is most likely to win the Super Bowl. I'm not saying they WILL. I'm just saying they're the team that's most likely to win. The reason is that..." And then I proceed to give all sorts of reasons for why they're the best team in the NFL. Is this an argument? Intuitively it seems like an argument. And yet, this passage isn't proposing sufficient reasons to believe that KC will win the Super Bowl. So is it really an argument? It is. Why? It's proposing sufficient reasons to think that (it's true that) KC has the best chance to win the Super Bowl. IOW: Theoretical arguments can come to probabilistic conclusions. Such as: It's true that there's a 50% chance this coin will land heads. Example: I'm a weather forecaster. I give you reasons for thinking that there's a 40% chance it's going to rain in your neighborhood tomorrow. True or False: This can't be an argument because I'm not proposing reasons that are sufficient for you to believe that it's going to rain in your neighborhood tomorrow.

False

The New USA wants to reduce crime by using robocops. They deploy a shipment of robocops in Wyoming. In the three years prior to the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming was stable. In the three years after the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming drops. The President takes this to be good evidence that robocops reduce crime. The conclusion of this argument is: Robocops reduce crime. This is a practical argument.

False

The New USA wants to reduce crime by using robocops. They deploy a shipment of robocops in Wyoming. In the three years prior to the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming was stable. In the three years after the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming drops. The President takes this to be good evidence that robocops reduce crime. There is an experimental group. But there is no control group: We aren't told what happened in the years prior to the introduction of robocops.

False

The opportunity cost principle says that one should at least TRY to consider all options before making a decision.

False

The opportunity cost principle says that one should consider all options before making a decision.

False

The opportunity costs principle says you should consider all your reasonable options before making a decision.

False

The sunk cost principle is principle of practical reason and so it is primarily a principle about what one should do. It says that you should stop pursuing a project when you've spent too many sunk costs on it.

False

Violating the fungibility principle always leads to bad practical reasoning.

False

Violating the fungibility principle is always a mistake. (It always involves bad practical reasoning and it tends to lead to bad decisions.)

False

With an excused absence, you are allowed to make up (P) participation and (Q) quiz assignments.

False

You will not have an opportunity at the end of the semester to raise objections to the (P) and (R) grades I assign you at the end of the semester.

False

You're evaluating an argument. To know whether it is a practical or theoretical argument, you need to know both what the premises (reasons) are and what the conclusion is.

False

More on Dylan's argument to the conclusion that he should bet on KC. What steps would you take to evaluate this argument?

First, you'd look to see if the premises (or reasons offered) were true (or at least plausible). And then you'd look to see if the premises support the conclusion (IOW: do the premises give us sufficient reason to accept the conclusion?). This does not mean that we have to be 100% sure that the recommended action will work out for the best. It means that we have to have sufficient reason to accept the conclusion (that it's a good idea to bet on KC, that Dylan should bet on KC).

More on Dylan's argument that KC would win. What steps would you take to evaluate this argument?

First, you'd look to see if the premises (or reasons offered) were true (or at least plausible). And then you'd look to see if the premises support the conclusion (IOW: do the premises give us sufficient reason to accept the conclusion?). This does not mean that we have to be 100% sure that the conclusion will turn out to be true. It means that we have to have sufficient reason to accept or believe the conclusion.

The Decider Principle says:

For a low-resource-availability decision: Think when the decision is trick question: you can't think for a low-resource-availability decision. For a high-variability decision: Use a short-cut when the decision is low-resource-availability. For a high-resource-availability decision: Think when the decision is also high-variability.

When are the essays due?

Friday February 8 Friday April 18

Polly says: "Same-sex marriage undermines the institution of marriage. If you look at the states where same-sex marriage has been legal for the past 5 years, divorce rates have gone up. But in the 5 years before same-sex marriage was legalized, divorce rates were stable in those states."

GC

The New USA wants to reduce crime by using robocops. They deploy a shipment of robocops in Wyoming. In the three years prior to the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming was stable. In the three years after the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming drops. The President takes this to be good evidence that robocops reduce crime.

GC

Polly says: "Same-sex marriage does not undermine the institution of marriage. If you look at the states where same-sex marriage has been legal for the past 5 years, it's true that divorce rates have gone up. But in the 5 years before same-sex marriage was legalized, divorce rates were going up in those states at the same rate."

GC ([pretty] good causal argument)

Large Co. is in a very tricky tax situation. In a board meeting, Joe Veep argues that the company should make an investment in new technology that is going to lead to the company losing $1 million over the next five years. In response to objections from the board, Joe notes that not investing in the new technology is going to lead to far bigger losses, and investing in different technologies (which is definitely possible) will be more costly and bring fewer long-term benefits.

GP

Dylan wants to invest $50,000 for 5 years. Dylan considers a wide range of investments including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, real estate, and various commodities and annuities. Dylan decides that given her situation, the best combination of safety and return is an S&P 500 index fund. The average 5 year return on these has been over 10% per year, and (historically) the 5 year return is almost never negative. So that's how Dylan invests her $50,000. [Result: Unfortunately, Dylan invested in February of 2004 which - unluckily for her - generated the worst 5 year return in the history of the S&P 500.]

GP (good practical argument)

Joe conducted a non-random sample of only five people. He found that the starting players on the basketball team weighed, on average, 223 pounds. [Note: Basketball teams have 5 starting players.]

GS

Sure thing effect

If given a fair choice, we have a tendency to lock in sure gains and avoid sure losses

Spotsylvania implements a new economic policy. Since it's been in place, GDP has risen 5%! Clearly the policy is working! Fill in each blank with one word (no punctuation): Yes or No.

Is there an experimental group? Yes. Is there a control group? No. Is this an example of the problem of hidden evidence? Yes.

You paid $30 to see Rae Sremmurd at the homecoming concert next Wednesday. But you have a midterm at 8 am the next morning and you're not feeling 100%. Your best options are to stay home and study or go to the concert. You decide to stay home and study and not go to the concert because the cost of not going to the concert (the $30 you spent) is more than compensated for by the benefit of staying home (you won't be miserable and you'll do well on the test). What does the sunk cost principle say about what you should do about the Rae Sremmurd homecoming concert next Wednesday?

It says you should ignore the $30 sunk cost as a factor in your practical reasoning but it says nothing about whether you should go or not go to the concert.

It's possible for people to save endangered species because the people intervened to save the California Condor. Fill in the blank: The conclusion of this argument is:

It's possible for people to save endangered species.

Loss aversion and the endowment effect are the same ideas with slightly different emphases. What's the difference?

LA focuses on how much losing your stuff hurts the EE focuses on how much you value your stuff

Large Co. is in a very tricky tax situation. In a board meeting, Joe Veep argues that the company should make an investment in new technology that is going to lead to the company losing $1 million over the next five years. In response to objections from the board, Joe notes that not investing in the new technology is going to lead to far bigger losses, and investing in different technologies (which is definitely possible) will be more costly and bring fewer long-term benefits. What's the conclusion of Joe's reasoning/argument?

Large Co should invest in new technology (which will lead to a $1 million loss over the next 5 years).

(R) assignments are typically due:

Midnight the night before class.

Funny Money

Money that doesn't SEEM like real money. We tend to be wasteful with this money.

Individual Purchase

Money we assign for making an individual purchase (esp a large purchase - e.g., a car, a computer, a refrigerator).

Special Purpose

Money we set aside for important purposes (food, rent, gas, tuition, retirement). We tend to be very careful with this money.

Windfall or "Easy Money"

Money you don't view as really yours (esp found $$, gifts, gambling winnings). We tend to be wasteful with this money

Endowment effect

My X is more valuable to me than your X

Five days a week, my girlfriend's mom drives nearly two hours to work and two hours back. If she transferred to an office closer to home, she could get a second (part-time) job and make more money than she does now with her combined salaries and save hundreds on gas each month. She could do all this and still spend about the same amount of time away from home each day. The conclusion of this argument is:

My girlfriend's mom should transfer to an office closer to home.

Coffee improves mood. After drinking coffee in the morning, 78% of people report an improvement in mood.

NC

The state of Colorado legalizes marijuana. Heroin overdoses increase the next year by 2%. Joe concludes that legalization of marijuana led people to use drugs, including dangerous drugs, more frequently.

NC

The New USA wants to reduce crime by using robocops. They deploy a shipment of robocops in Wyoming and wait for a year. The crime rate in Wyoming drops. The President takes this to be good evidence that robocops reduce crime.

NC (causal argument, no control)

It makes sense to suppose that having the government give families $1000 vouchers to use to pay for a school of their choice will improve public school performance. It's the market. If schools aren't effective, they'll get no students and they'll lose money. So public schools that have to compete against private schools will end up improving.

NE

Coffee makes you run faster. It makes sense. We know that coffee keeps you awake, so it boosts your energy. And with more energy, you can run faster.

NE (causal argument, no experimental group or control [narrative])

Joey likes Snickers.

Need a control? No. Why? This is not a causal claim.

Capital punishment prevents murder.

Need a control? Yes. Why? This is a causal claim.

The car smashed into the tree.

Neither a casual argument nor a causal claim

I ran a mile in 6 minutes.

Not a causal claim

My hand fits in the glove perfectly.

Not a causal claim

Never give a sucker an even break.

Not a causal claim

Thou shalt not kill.

Not a causal claim

My roommate thinks it is ridiculous to pay $10 to get her car washed so instead she takes two hours to do it herself when she should be studying for her upcoming exam (which is probably going to determine whether she gets into law school).

OCP

On the day Gabrielle turned eighteen, she typed "credit cards for eighteen year olds" into her favorite search engine. The first result promises her a credit card with a $3,000 limit, but only if she signs up now. So she does.

OCP (violation of the opportunity cost principle)

Alex spent last week trying to learn the new dance move called the shuffle, and he broke it out at the concert he is going to this weekend. Although he did the dance wrong, and looked ridiculous, none of his friends wanted to be rude and tell him. For the rest of the concert, Alex kept doing the shuffle and thought he looked cool doing it.

P

James thinks grizzly bear testosterone increases his attractiveness. He takes some grizzly bear testosterone and goes out on the town. He seems to attract a good bit of attention. This confirms James' view that grizzly bear testosterone makes him sexy!

P (politeness)

My grandparents, as usual, said something racist and closed minded at Thanksgiving dinner last year. I felt like responding with "ok boomer" but I didn't because I didn't want to make waves.

P (politeness)

The four types of assignments are: (P) Assignments (Q) Assignments (E) Assignments (R) Assignments

Participation Assignments (in class) Quiz Assignments (in class) Essay Assignments Reading Assignments

Poverty programs in the United States have been a complete failure. Look around you. There are still people here who go to bed hungry. This is: a theoretical argument. The conclusion is:

Poverty programs in the US have been ineffective at reducing poverty. The premise is: There is still a lot of poverty in the US

Companies similar to ours and in our situation that invested early in new technologies made long-term profits, while companies that didn't ended up in the long run going out of business. So we should invest in this new technology.

Practical argument

If you have more than two days of excused absences (or if you have good reason to miss more than 2 (Q) or (P) assignments) you should:

Put this info in "Issues & Absences" and contact Bishop about the missed work.

The New USA wants to reduce crime by using robocops. They deploy a shipment of robocops in Wyoming. In the three years prior to the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming was stable. In the three years after the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming drops. The President takes this to be good evidence that robocops reduce crime. What's the conclusion of the reasoning reported here?

Robocops reduce crime

I tell my mom about all of the horrible fights my boyfriend and I have so now she thinks our relationship is more toxic than it is.

SL

Love island is an extremely popular British reality TV show that puts 12 individuals on an island and couples them up within the first five minutes. The content of the show consists of steamy romantic scenes, and nasty fights between the contestants. Much of the tedious day to day stuff such as cooking, cleaning, and regular conversations are not broadcast to the public.

SL (sharpening and leveling)

If you want to meet Bishop for office hours, what's the best thing to do? Choose the BEST answer.

Send Bishop an email asking to meet with him AND offering specific days and times you are available.

Describe a prospective (matching) study that tests for the following: Cutting tax rates (that is, the percentage of money taxed) increases tax revenues (that is, the amount of money the government collects in taxes).

Start with a group of countries. Identify those that have cut tax rates and put them into the experimental group. Then identify another sample that has not recently cut tax rates and be sure match the two groups for any potential confounding factors. Then see if there's a significant difference in tax revenues.

But sometimes the control evidence appears to be hidden. We know what happened when X was present. But we don't know what would have happened had X been absent. This is the problem of hidden evidence. Given this description of the problem of hidden evidence, what evidence is hidden? (Give the single best, most specific answer.)

The control evidence

Loss Aversion

The negative psychological impact of losing X is greater than the positive psychological impact of gaining X

Identify all and only the propositions that say (basically) what the Decider Principle says:

Think when you can (high-resource-availability) and it's worth it (high variability), and otherwise use short-cuts.

Compare the above argument to this one: A business your company owns sells paper. It's called Dunder Mifflin. It's doing very well in the north Florida market and it's looking to expand. Joe Snerdley says they have considered their alternatives, and decided that the best option is to expand into the Atlanta market. It's a huge market that, and it's easier to break into that market than other nearby accessible markets (south Florida, Alabama).

This argument might be good or it might be bad. But it does not violate the OCP. And that's because it considers reasonable alternatives. Of course, it might be FALSE that the Atlanta market is the easiest to break into or that the Atlanta market has huge potential for profits. And if the premises of the argument were false, that would mean that this argument is a bad argument. But it still wouldn't violate the OCP.

If we allow more immigrants to come to the US, they will take the jobs that US citizens would have taken. They will therefore drive up the unemployment rate.

This is a bad causal (theoretical) argument. It lacks controls.

Marisa is passionate about dance and is getting her Masters in Dance Therapy. As a final project for her Dance studies class she did a study where she found that students who danced before taking an exam made high scores. She took this to be evidence that dancing before an exam helps students score high on exams.

This is a bad causal (theoretical) argument. It lacks controls.

Suppose it's true that you should study for your calculus exam tonight. That's the wise thing for you to do. Consider the following argument. Your fortune cookie last night said "Change is part of life." So you should study calculus (which is the mathematics of change) tonight.

This is a bad practical argument with a true conclusion.

A business your company owns sells paper. It's called Dunder Mifflin. It's doing very well in the north Florida market and it's looking to expand. Joe Snerdley says they definitely should expand into the Atlanta market because it's a huge market that, if you break into it, will bring massive profits in the long run. You're sure that Joe is correct about the massive potential benefits of the Atlanta market.

This is a bad practical argument.

In a tied baseball game in the bottom of the 9th inning, Coach CrackerJack decides to tell his hitter to bunt the ball, so that the runner on first base will be able to move up to second base. "Even though the hitter will almost definitely be tagged out on the sacrifice bunt, this is overall a net positive outcome, since the runner gets to move up a base, so we should do it," Coach CrackerJack said to himself.

This is a bad practical argument. It violates the opportunity cost principle.

Josh and Mario were thinking about what they wanted to eat for dinner. Mario says "What if we each order 100 chalupas from Taco Bell?" Josh responds with "I'm not sure if I want to eat 100 chalupas from Taco Bell," to which Mario replies "Well it's either 100 chalupas from Taco Bell or not eating anything at all."

This is a bad practical argument. It violates the opportunity cost principle.

Roses are red. Violets are blue. Therefore, some grass is green.

This is a bad theoretical argument with a true conclusion.

The New USA wants to reduce crime by using robocops. They deploy a shipment of robocops in Wyoming. In the three years prior to the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming was stable. In the three years after the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming drops. The President takes this to be good evidence that robocops reduce crime. So there is a control group and an experimental group.

This is a pre-post study. Is the control group a good one? For this sort of study, we do have to worry about the problem of confounding factors: there might be some other factor besides the robocops that led to the reduction in crime. It would be wrong to say this is a terrible argument (akin to an argument that was just a narrative or an argument that didn't have a control group). But it's probably not a GREAT argument either. This is one where you need to use your judgment. (In a critical thinking class, you have to think.) And we might disagree about this, which is okay. In your estimation, this argument would be: okay.

Five days a week, my girlfriend's mom drives nearly two hours to work and two hours back. If she transferred to an office closer to home, she could get a second (part-time) job and make more money than she does now with her combined salaries and save hundreds on gas each month. She could do all this and still spend about the same amount of time away from home each day.

This is an argument This is a practical argument

Many years later, as he faced the firing squad, Colonel Aureliano Buendía was to remember that distant afternoon when his father took him to discover ice. At that time Macondo was a village of twenty adobe houses, built on the bank of a river of clear water that ran along a bed of polished stones, which were white and enormous, like prehistoric eggs. The world was so recent that many things lacked names, and in order to indicate them it was necessary to point. Every year during the month of March a family of ragged gypsies would set up their tents near the village, and with a great uproar of pipes and kettledrums they would display new inventions. First they brought the magnet. A heavy gypsy with an untamed beard and sparrow hands, who introduced himself as Melquíades, put on a bold public demonstration of what he himself called the eighth wonder of the learned alchemists of Macedonia. He went from house to house dragging two metal ingots and everybody was amazed to see pots, pans, tongs and braziers tumble down from their places and beams creak from the desperation of nails and screws trying to emerge, and even objects that had been lost for a long time appeared from where they had been searched for most and went dragging along in turbulent confusion behind Melquíades' magical irons. 'Things have a life of their own,' the gypsy proclaimed with a harsh accent. 'It's simply a matter of waking up their souls.'

This is not an argument

To change a tire, find a safe location, turn on your hazard lights, and apply your parking brake. If you have them, apply wheel wedges. Remove the hubcap and loosen the lug nuts but don't remove them completely. Properly position the jack and raise your vehicle. Unscrew the lug nuts completely. Remove the flat tire. Mount the spare tire on the lug bolts. Tighten the lug nuts by hand. Lower the vehicle so that the wheels are on the ground but are not bearing the full weight of the car, tighten the lug nuts tightly, and then lower the vehicle all the way. Replace the hubcap and stow all your equipment.

This is not an argument.

Robin is passionate about dance and is getting a Masters in Dance Therapy. As a final project, Robin wants to conduct a study to figure out whether dancing before taking an exam leads to higher exam scores. Help Robin think through how to set up this study. Fill in the blanks with the BEST answers.

To say that dancing (prior to taking an exam) causes one to get better grades (on those exams) commits you to saying that dancing makes a positive difference to exam scores. To know whether dancing makes a difference, we have to know what happens to exam scores when students dance before an exam and when students don't dance before an exam and everything else relevant to exam scores is kept constant.

"Roses are red. Violets are blue. Therefore, some grass is green." This is a bad argument because the reasons given aren't sufficient to accept the conclusion. But that doesn't mean the conclusion is false. What's more, there might be OTHER good arguments to this conclusion. It's just that: this isn't one of the good ones!

True

"Your fortune cookie last night said "Change is part of life." So you should study calculus (which is the mathematics of change) tonight." This is a bad argument because the reasons given aren't sufficient to accept the conclusion. But that doesn't mean the conclusion is false. What's more, there might be OTHER good arguments to this conclusion. It's just that: this isn't one of the good ones!

True

(Q) quiz assignments will typically occur at the end of every class period, and they are cumulative: they cover all the material we've gone over so far in the course.

True

A theoretical argument can have the following form: Reason R is sufficient for you to believe that fact F is true.

True

After you complete a (Q) quiz or (R) reading assignment, the correct answers are made available to you. The reason Bishop makes these answers available is so that you can learn from your mistakes and not make them again (especially since the quizzes are cumulative).

True

At the end of the semester, when the Professor is deciding on 50% of your grade (that is, your [P] and [R] grades), he will read what you have written about your situation in "Issues & Absences."

True

Because so many students put in a good effort in a recent semester, a really high percentage of those students (over 50%) got an A or an A-.

True

But technically, the opportunity cost principle doesn't explicitly tell you HOW to make choices. It just tells you, when you make a choice, there's a "cost" to not having made a different choice. So we need to use our judgment in deciding how to apply the OCP.

True

Canvas will give you a (roughly) accurate assessment of your (E) grade.

True

Canvas will give you a (roughly) accurate assessment of your (Q) grade.

True

Causal arguments are always theoretical arguments.

True

Expected value: the value is always money. Expected utility: the value is always utility (where this stands for "good stuff" whatever that is). (But Bishop will sometimes screw this up. If he does, just do the calculations. It's not a trick question.)

True

General point that will arise over and over again in this class: You can give bad arguments to true (theoretical or practical) conclusions.

True

George gives you reasons to think that there's a 40% chance that your favorite team will win the big game. This can be a theoretical argument because George might be giving sufficient evidence that it's TRUE that there's a 40% chance that your favorite team will win the big game.

True

Here are some things (I suspect) you believe: The world will exist tomorrow. You will take a quiz later today. Elvis Presley is dead. Joe Biden is president. And yet, you don't have 100% proof of these claims. You believe a lot of things that you don't have 100% proof of. You have a SUFFICIENT reason to believe that you will take a quiz later today in this class. (Involving mostly me telling you so.) But you don't have 100% proof that you will take a quiz late today in this class. True or False: You can have sufficient reason to believe something without 100% proof.

True

If you feel like there's something the Professor needs to know about your situation when assigning you a final grade, "Issues & Absences" is your only sure-fire opportunity to do that.

True

If you miss the deadline on an (R) assignment, you can hand in a reading assignment late and receive credit (partial or full, depending on how late it is).

True

If you raise objections at the end of the semester to your (P) or (R) grades and you don't understand the basics of how this class works, Bishop is probably not going to respond in a positive way to your objections.

True

If you raise objections at the end of the semester to your (P) or (R) grades, you should expect Bishop to know A LOT about how much effort you put into your (P) and (R) assignments. If you try to mislead Bishop about this, he's probably not going to respond in a positive way to your objections.

True

If you say that X causes Y, you are committed to the proposition that the presence of X makes a positive difference to Y.

True

If you take this class online via zoom, having your camera on will be part of your (P) grade.

True

If you want to meet me for office hours on Zoom, you should send me an email asking to meet for office hours and giving me multiple times that you are available.

True

If you work on your reading assignments in class, Bishop can figure this out. And he's not going to be impressed with your class participation efforts. And it's better for you if he's happy and impressed with your class participation efforts when he's assigning you your final (P) grade.

True

If you worry too much about the precise grades you got on a (P) or (R) assignment, Bishop is going to think you don't understand the basic rules of this course.

True

In a recent semester, almost everyone (87 out of 88) who put in an excellent effort on the (R) assignments (the reading assignments) got a B or better.

True

In a recent semester, the ONLY people who got A's are the people who put in excellent effort on the (R) assignments (the reading assignments).

True

In this class, we're assuming that people can have a sufficient reason to do D even though they aren't 100% sure that D is the right thing to do (or that D will "work out for the best").

True

It makes sense to suppose that having the government give families $1000 vouchers to use to pay for a school of their choice will improve public school performance. It's the market. If schools aren't effective, they'll get no students and they'll lose money. So public schools that have to compete against private schools will end up improving. There wasn't experimental evidence. So you already know this is a bad argument. Does this sound like a story about what this person thinks will happen with $1000 vouchers? That's usually what you should expect when the person doesn't even give you experimental evidence. This is a narrative (a story) offered in support of a causal conclusion. It is therefore a bad argument.

True

It makes sense to suppose that having the government give families $1000 vouchers to use to pay for a school of their choice will improve public school performance. It's the market. If schools aren't effective, they'll get no students and they'll lose money. So public schools that have to compete against private schools will end up improving. This is a causal argument: the conclusion is a causal claim.

True

Large Co. is in a very tricky tax situation. In a board meeting, Joe Veep argues that the company should make an investment in new technology that is going to lead to the company losing $1 million over the next five years. In response to objections from the board, Joe notes that not investing in the new technology is going to lead to far bigger losses, and investing in different technologies (which is definitely possible) will be more costly and bring fewer long-term benefits. Since we're assuming the premises are true and the reasons take the form "X is our best option, so we should do X" and we don't know of any other problems with practical arguments besides OCP, this seems like a pretty good practical argument.

True

On some reading assignments, if you answer all the questions correctly, you can't get a perfect score. If you do get a perfect score, that will be because you weren't paying attention. And that will hurt your final (R) grade. IOW: The point of (R) assignments is for you to think. Sometimes that's going to mean not getting a perfect score. Get used to it.

True

The New USA wants to reduce crime by using robocops. They deploy a shipment of robocops in Wyoming. In the three years prior to the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming was stable. In the three years after the introduction of the robocops, the crime rate in Wyoming drops. The President takes this to be good evidence that robocops reduce crime. This is a causal (and thus a theoretical) argument. There is an experimental group: In the real world (according to the argument), crime dropped in the 3 years after robocops were introduced.

True

The fungibility principle says that all dollars are worth the same (and so can be interchanged with other dollars).

True

The opportunity cost principle (actually) says: Every choice has an opportunity cost. And this is true. If you make a choice among options, then you "lose out" on doing what you didn't choose.

True

The opportunity cost principle does NOT say that one should at least TRY to consider all options before making a decision.

True

The opportunity cost principle, as we're applying it in this class, says that you should consider reasonable options when making high-resource-availability, high-variability decisions.

True

The quizzes in this class are cumulative. This means that everything that has been covered previously in class might appear on a quiz.

True

The reading assignments will include comprehension checks and attention checks. These are questions that I expect any college student who is reading carefully to be able to answer correctly. If you're consistently getting these answers wrong, this will hurt your final (R) grade.

True

The suggestion in the reading was basically: Consider your options when facing a high-variability, high-resource-availability problem.

True

When you're on Canvas, Canvas gives Bishop a LOT of information: What time you started an assignment, what time you finished an assignment, how long you spent on each question, and how long you spent away from the screen.

True

Whether something is an argument depends on whether someone is PROPOSING a reason as sufficient for accepting a conclusion (believe B or do D). And so sometimes it's going to be unclear whether something is an argument. In real life, a reasonable thing to do when you're not sure whether something is an argument is to politely ask something like: "Are you saying that R is sufficient for thinking that B is true?" Or: "Are you saying that R is sufficient for us to do D?"

True

You can have sufficient reason to do something even though you're not 100% sure it's the right thing to do. If you've ever had a bad date, you know this is true. True or False: You can have sufficient reason to do something even though you're not 100% sure it's the right thing to do.

True

You will have an opportunity at the end of the semester to raise objections to the (P) and (R) grades I assign you at the end of the semester.

True

Your final effort grades - your final (P) and (R) grades - will be not involve simply "adding up" your individual (P) and (R) grades. These grades will be determined by me at the end of the semester.

True

We've seen that good causal arguments require controls. To have good evidence for the claim X causes Y, you need to know what difference X makes to Y. And so (putting retrospective studies aside) you need to know:

What happens when X is present (the experimental condition); and what happens when X is absent and all relevant conditions are the same as when X was present (the control condition).

You're evaluating an argument. You already know it's an argument. What must you absolutely know in order to know whether it's a theoretical or a practical argument? Check all and only truths.

What the conclusion is.

This is a FLEX class, which means:

You can take the entire class (all assignments) either online or in person or in some combination of online and in person.

A high-resource-availability decision is: (Check all and only truths)

a decision that you have a lot resources that you can use to think about.

Here's the basic idea behind cheating:

cheating is when you use a source of information (a person, notes, websites) that you're not allowed to use

If you have documentation of an excused absence, the very best thing you can do so that it's taken into account when Bishop is assigning you your final grade is:

document it in "Issues & Absences."

Your (P) grade is part of the 50% of your grade that is:

effort-based (that is, based on the genuine effort you put into the assignment).

Your (R) grade is part of the 50% of your grade that is:

effort-based (that is, based on the genuine effort you put into the assignment).

The sure thing effect follows from:

loss eversion and diminishing utility

(R) reading assignments are typically due:

midnight before class starts.

Describe a randomized study that tests for the following: The Whipple Procedure cures pancreatic cancer. Start with a group of:

people with pancreatic cancer. Randomly divide the population into two groups. Then give the Whipple procedure to one group (the experimental group) and be sure to not give people in the other (control) group the Whipple procedure (but do give them the best current standard of care). Then see if there's a significant difference in cure rates.

Your (E) grade is part of the 50% of your grade that is:

performance-based (that is, based on the quality of your performance).

Your (Q) grade is part of the 50% of your grade that is:

performance-based (that is, based on the quality of your performance).

Any time you see a sampling argument, what's the one question that should immediately spring to mind:

representative sample?

For a sampling argument to be a good one:

the sample must be a representative sample of the population.

A sampling argument is a

theoretical argument

X happened. And you know what happened afterwards? Y. So X causes Y.

there is an experimental group ("X happened...") but no control group

Suppose X were to happen. Let me tell you a story about how Y is bound to happen afterwards. So X causes Y. In this argument:

there is neither a control group nor an experimental group ("Suppose X were to happen...")

A good argument must have:

true premises premises that support the conclusion

If you come to class:

you are expected to wear a mask out of respect for students who might have health issues (and the fact that the professor is really old - and yes, this is one of the TAs saying this - HAHAHA! Don't tell Bishop! It's our secret!).