Econ Readings

World Bank (2010) World Development Report

"Development and Climate Change." World Development Report. REVISIT THIS ONE -- you will likely need it 1) 0.7oC fluctuation over last millenium relative to a potential 5oC increase coming 2) Warming, even at 2oC -- poses major GDP decline threat in Africa and South Asia 3) Progress on poverty -- but still a problem in developing countries and made more complicated by climate change. High income countries can afford to and must reduce their carbon footprints 4) Developing countries, meanwhile, need to expand -- and they will use carbon in the process. Inefficiencies, however, mean that growth sacrifice is not necessary for developed countries 5) Climate change threatens all, but particularly developing countries 6) Developing countries are more exposed and less resilient to climate hazards. 7) The economics of climate change: Reducing climate risk is affordable 8) reaching 2oC target requires aggressive mitigation 9) A number of countries using recovery stimlus to green the economy -- such investments can yield a 3 to 1 return ---- FROM SUMMARY (new): 1) Geography, dependence on natural resources, makee developing world particularly vulnerable. ALSO, RELIANCE ON AGRICULTURE 2) water scarcity, resource degredation to impact almost all developing areas (SA, Africa, SE Asia, 3) Rich countries -- greater capacity to cope, more resilient. Growth won't be enough to protect developing world 4) CLIMATE INSURANCE -- recommended peak of CO2e ppm 540-750, depending on assumptions 5) MUST PROTECT THE VULNERABLE, ensure food security and PUBLIC WORKS PROJECTS 6) Sustainable farming in developing countries, crop variety that will do well under more extreme conditions. Future infrastructure, too -- think NYC in 2100 with water. 7) CITIES -- skyscrapers use solar power, ratified Kyoto even when national government did not -- attempted move toward carbon-neutral cities 8) Question of past land-use policies, whether countries should be rewarded backwards-looking land-use credits . REFORESTATION, meanwhile, could serve as carbon sync 9) Soil carbon sequstration in farming?

Goldin

"Ian Goldin Recommends the Five Best Books on Immigration" 1) Overwhelming evidence from economists' perspecitve that immigration is a good thing for recieiving countries, with some costs for the sending countries 2) Disconnect -- short-term costs for recieving areas inspire backlash 3) UK businesses calling for more labor, but similar factors that cause resentment in the US at play in the UK 4) Relates cosmopolitan, diverse nature of London with many immigrants to its economic success 5) Bloody Foreigners -- importance of immigrants to UK success

Lawrence and Dalta (2013)

"Shaping the Future of Solar Power: Climate Change, Industrial, Policy, and Free Trade." 1) Solyndra -- return to this reading, return to notes from class, return to

Rinze

"Brexit: EU and UK Constitutional Requirements." 1) Covers constitutional issues -- does UK parliament need to vote on leaving / invoking article 50? 2) Didn't delve into other specifics

Piketty (2014)

"Capital in the 21st Century." Introduction. **IN the book -- need to return to this one!!! *** 1) 2) 3) 4) 5)

Asongu (2016)

" A Middle Path to Development" 1) Africa relations with China -- two sides -- this will present a middle path 2) OPTIMISTS -- chart course of development independent of the west. Focus on sovereignty and state control 3) PESSIMISTS -- prefer democracy-oriented approach 4) THIRD group -- china accomodators. Combine optimists goals with pessimists wariness of China. Emphasize a need for a common, symmetrical relationship with China 5) Represented by the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD), the accommodators champion democracy, the rule of law, and human rights; but, like China, they oppose Western interference. 6) Aid from the west contingent upon "fundamental human rights" which have a western bias, according to non-interferers 7) For this reason, African countries should respect rights but acknowledge each other's sovereignty 8) Right to bread should trump, if preceding, right to vote -- state-controlled development 9) The need for a two-pronged approach to development, incorporating elements of the Beijing model and the Washington Consensus 10) With an approach that merges Chinese and Western models - balancing human rights with national interests, individual rights with sovereign authority, and political rights with economic goals - African countries could enhance their development prospects considerably.

Bosworth and Collins

"Accounting for growth: comparing China and India." **Returning to this at the end** 1) Growth of both countries a hugely important economic development -- account for over a third of world's population, are similar in many ways -- large population that remains poor 2) China stands out for the explosive growth in its industrial sector, which in turn was fueled by China's willingness to act more quickly and aggressively to lower its trade barriers and to attract foreign direct investment inflows. 3)In contrast, India's growth has been fueled primarily by rapid expansion of service-producing industries, not the more traditional development path that begins with an emphasis on low-wage manufacturing. 4) India's growth has been strongest in various service producing industries, while India's manufacturing sector has remained surprisingly weak. China's growth is remarkably broad across agriculture, industry, and services. Overall, the growth of services in China actually exceeds that of India. Using the most recent data, we find no support for some of the recent arguments that China is experiencing a significant deceleration of growth in total factor productivity due to wasteful and excessive expansions of capital investment. 5) However, China has made much greater progress in raising the educational skills of younger workers. Indeed, China has essentially eliminated illiteracy among new entrants to the workforce 6) Saving, capital inflows higher in China -- suggests higher supply-side potential for growth -- for India to reach China levels, would need higher saving (public) or higher capital inflows 7) Overall, we conclude that the supply-side prospects for continued rapid growth in China and India, in terms of labor, physical capital, and reallocation across sectors, are very good. Ultimately, India will need to redress its inadequate infrastructure and to broaden its trade beyond the current emphasis on services. Only an expansion of goods production and trade can provide employment opportunities for its current pool of underemployed and undereducated workers. China has performed well in the international dimension but now needs to focus on development of domestic markets, reducing inefficiencies in its financial sector, and achieving a more balanced trade position. However, none of these concerns can diminish the amazing accomplishments of both countries and the progress that they have made in lifting two and a half billion people from abject poverty. ----

Zedillo (2015)

"Africa at a Fork in the Road" 1) Africa turnaround from tons of malaise in the 1990s (malaise of the 70s) 2) Reasons for Africa's growth revival The answer to the first question is clear - improved macroeconomic management, pro-private sector growth policies, population growth and urbanisation, opening up to foreign trade and investment, booming markets for natural resources, strengthened governance and rule of law, and a drastic reduction in conflict and political instability. 3) Rural to urban migration, more ag productivity 4) Commodity prices and FDI, too. 5) How sustainable is the upturn in performance? As reduced demand and lower commodity prices are followed, in all likelihood, by slower African growth, then most African nations will have only two options - either sink back into mediocre economic performance or embark upon more profound reforms to create other engines of economic growth. 6) Persisting structural weaknesses will restrict capacity to grow and some of those weaknesses have become more acute over the recent period of fast growth. The clearest, and most worrisome structural weakness is the dualistic nature of most African economies with informal sectors outside the fiscal system. 7) HUGE informal sector 8) When marginalisation from the legal system is combined with small size, the results are lack of legal identity, little or no capital, isolation from formal sources of credit and technology, and very limited markets, all resulting in very low productivity. In addition, there is evidence that, until 2005 at least, labour in African countries shifted from high- to low-productivity activities. --and effect of employment on GDP is much smaller than it could be -- also hindering public revenues (contribute only 3% of revenue despite huge share of employment) 9) Other factors -- weak and corrupt governance, lagging ag connectedness and productivity, need for higher human capital to attract global supply chains 10) Has turned around, but faces headwinds and weakened external environment. --> must embark on structural transformation with rule of law and institutions for growth

Moghalu (2016)

"Africa's Economic Reality Check" 1) The global commodity slump and China's economic slowdown have pummeled several African economies, making clear that the continent's "rise" was a myth. Now is the time to re-examine the basis of Africa's recent "boom" and move from feel-good rhetoric to action that will drive genuine economic transformation. 2) Commodity exporters reeling, monetary and fiscal policies are in disarray 3) The heart of the matter is this: African countries mistook a commodity supercycle-fed boom for a sustainable economic transformation. But a boom connotes transient good fortune - enjoy it while it lasts, or save the proceeds for a rainy day. Most African governments opted for the former. 4) Not a rise of broad growth, but rather the rise of inequality and fabulous wealth for a few at the top 5) Domestic politics have not changed either -- whereas real leadership seeks votes on sound management, current situation in Africa driven by ethnicity and religion --> LEADS TO CORRUPTION 6) Understanding of economics essential. INSTEAD, simply accepting "self-interested conventional wisdom of globalization" 7) Africa's blanket acceptance of globalization has hurt it -- making it a market for advanced economies while shutting it out, in the process, of value-added global supply chains 8) FOLLY to believe commodities could be a reliable source of wealth 9) Africa's future competitiveness and prosperity lie in the opportunities afforded by science, technology, and innovation. 10) MUST reset the trajectory, move away from commodities

OECD (2016)

"African Economic Outlook 2016." 0a) Africa growth has slowed but is expected to strengthen again. --China more balanced growth important and complex --> falling commodity prices, but potential manufacturing relocation 1) Doing fairly well in terms of economic, social and governance issues -- this report looks to urbanization and shiftingeconomic resources to more productive areas 2) Remained resilient in 2015, despite poor world economy and commodity price sinking. Beat the average world growth. 3) Ag strong where no floods or droughts, manufac growth where no energy shortages -- growth prospects strong but uncertain 4) Weakened global economy provided headwinds as well as fall in commodity prices -- including by transmitting its own weaknesses, but grwoth in hte last 15 years has still provided opportunities for trade -- as well as demands for social rights, enhanced security, human rights, and protections of the most vulnerable 5) IMPORTANT POLICY STEPS -- economic and social development (creation of higher productivity jobs) and sound environmental management 6) ALSO -- improved terms of trade. MORE FAVORABLE DEMOGRAPHICS THAN THE WORLD IN COMING YEARS, ALBEIT WITH DOWNSIDE RISKS (such as food security, human capital development)

Rachman (2016)

"Brexit and the Making of a Global Financial Crisis." **return to this!** 1) 2) 3) 4) 5)

Yep

"Economic Downturn and Instability in China: Time for Political Reform?" 1) China economic performance faltering slightly following crisis particularly costly to countryside, migrant workers who have their leased-land sold by local governments -- recipe for confrontation and disturbance 2) Democracy as a safety valve? Charter 08 calls for expanding avenues for public participation in governance. Government not receptive to the idea -- though they have introduced some limited measures for public participation, the party must never be challenged. 3) China will engage in fiscal stimulus and some redistributive efforts (including ag subsidies), financed by debt. 4) political liberalization, however, is not on the table. They will likely wait until it is OPPORTUNE -- they feel their grip is strong.

Ayres

"Economic Relations with India." 1) "estrangement" to partnership over time 2) Growth in Indian American population, growth in bilateral volume of trade -- supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs in both countries, but well below its potential 3) India on track to become major world economy -- 7th largest global economy by 2020--and given continued level of growth, could be $10 trillion economy like China 4) RECOMMENDATIONS FOLLOW -- elevate support for India's economic growth and its reform process to the highest bilateral priority, committing to ambitious targets for bilateral economic ties along with clear steps to get there 5) Champion Indian membership in APEC 6) prepare next generation by providing incentives to study Indian languages and study in India

Okonjo-Iaweala (2016)

"Ensuring Africa's Continued Rise" 1) Rise of annual 5% threatened by global uncertainty, falling commodity prices, jittery external conditions 2)) Ensuring the wealth and wellbeing of the continent's residents will not be easy; but there is much that policymakers can do to put Africa back on an upward trajectory. 3) First and foremost, policymakers must secure the financing needed to pursue sustainable development in an uncertain global environment. -- SUBSTANTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS ALONE! 4) Africa must rapidly develop its own resources, beginning by nearly doubling tax revenues. -- significantly lower revenues as % of GDP relative to OECD countries 5)At the same time, African countries will have to find a way to diversify their economies 6) KEY -- leaders with a shared vision of a broad-based economy. 7) Emphasize growth THAT LEADS TO JOBS: such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services. ALSO, redistribute income and strengthen social safety net 8) Match skills to job opportunities! . Offering Africa's children basic reading, writing, and technology skills, as well as vocational, technical, and entrepreneurial training, must be a top priority. 9) Improve health care -- fight ebola, malaria, etc. 10) Increase trade with one another!!! -- reduce barriers of logistics 11) AIM -- a market-based exchange rate and a solid plan for governing inflation, debt, foreign-exchange reserves, current accounts, and fiscal balances. 12) GREAT POTENTIAL, including for low-carbon, sustainable infrastructure. BUT NOT A GIVEN! POLICYMAKERS MUST TAKE THE CORRECT STEPS

Eichengreen

"From Great Depression to Great Credit Crises: Similarities, Differences, and Lessons." and "Hall of Mirrors" 1) Similar causes -- strikingly different policy responses. 2) Evidence suggests that monetary and fiscal stimulus were effective -- and that where there is not evidence that they were, they were not tried. THIS RESULT IS CONSISTENT WITH RESEARCH THAT ARGUES FISCAL MULTIPLIERS ARE HIGH IN CRISIS 3) This is consistent with theory -- where banking system is dysfunctional and monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound, fiscal stimulus is particularly effective 4) Many who compare US pre-depression and pre-recession wrongly focus on the US -- IT IS NOT THE ENTIRE PICTURE (the world) 5) BOTH were transmitted by trade flows and capital flows and commodity prices 6) Decline in global manufacturing was as steep as 1929, decline in stock market steeper 7) Evidence -- fiscal stimulus worked well where applied in 30s too, though expenditures were small. Monetary policy results mixed 8) WWII ended up being the true Keynesian stimulus

World Bank Development Report (2012)

"Globalization's Impact on Gender Equality: What's Happened and What's Needed." 1) Trade openness, tech change, and access to information have lifted some barriers to equality . Barriers remain, however, especially for those most tightly bound 2) Increased access to economic opportunities -- access to communication tech, as well as increased importance to cofnitive skills instead of physical skills 3) Stronger incentives for action -- international peer pressure, country incentives to be more competitive internationally, media exposure and consumer demands 4) Shifting gender roles and norms -- access to information about other cultures. 5) WHAT IT MEANS FOR POLICY -- GAPS remain. policies must close gaps in endowments, agency, and access to opportunities (including segregation in some sectors, old problems reapplied, etc.)

Mian and Sufi

"House of Debt" 1) Evidence suggests large increases in household debt precede recessions -- financial system with large amounts of debt, then, concentrate risk on holder of debt rather than diversifying risk 2) HOWEVER -- silver lining -- don't have to view severe recession as an inevitable outcome of the business cycle, but rather a result of our mistakes -- a result of a financial system that fosters too much household debt. 3) ALTERNATIVE VIEWS LARGELY COVERED BY OTHER READINGS 4) Banking view, that credit crunch drives crisis (as well as withdrawals) particularly popular with post-crisis policymakers 5) Significant increase pre-2008 as well as 1920s, as well as early-90s England, 70s Spain, 80s Norway

Wolf (2016)

"How Europe Should Respond to Brexit" 1) Argues for pragmatic approach to Brexit -- want to prevent others from following suit, but also need to give Europeans the security and prosperity they seek. 2) The EU is unlikely to gain the legitimacy that comes from democratic accountability: it is too big and diverse for that. The best route to legitimacy consists, instead, of managing the practical challenges it confronts. Dealing with migration is an extremely important and difficult practical challenge. But making the eurozone prosperous is indispensable. Brexit is a nuisance. The priority is a practical plan for widely shared economic growth.

Financial Times (2016)

"How battle over Brexit crosses traditional party lines." 1) Remain -- better organization, young people, best performance in North Ireland, Scotland, and London 2) Leave stronger in the countryside, would do better with lower turnout. Older people, conservative supporters. 3) In the short-term before the vote, ECONOMY is cited as the biggest issue far more frequently than is immigration (factor of 2)

IMF Report (2009)

"Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Low-Income Countries" 1) Major impact on LICs, especially in subsaharan Africa -- new financing needs that will require greater aid from advanced countries -- the US has already began to step up to the plate 2) Exposure for LICs driven in part by deeper integration through trade, FDI, and remittances 3) Ability to offset adverse shocks, in many, LICs, dependent on donor support -- barring significant increase, many such states will now have to justify many social programs 4) Countries should focus on stability -- allowing exchange rates to move as shock absorbers, to take steps to prevent financial system crisis spread 5) Fund will help with critical planning, balance of payments needs 6) also important is its effects on commodity prices 7) world economy in negative feedback loop, with commodity prices suffering. -- there will be greater crisis severity where there is greater financial integration. Declines in revenues, especially given commodity price decline, could cause debt distress and fiscal vulnerabilities 8) WON'T HAVE ROOM FOR COUNTERCYCLICAL POLICIES, SO DONOR SUPPORT IS ESSENTIAL 9) Should focus on -- targeted spending to protect the poor, exchange rate flexibility, and vigilant financial supervision

Cohen (2014)

"Income Inequality is Not Rising Globally, Its Falling." 1) While issue becomes more acute within countries -- income inequality for the world, however, falling for the last 20 years according to the World Bank 2) Driver -- surge of countries like China and India 3) Should reframe thinking about immigration and free trade 4) Autor -- chinese imports probably contribute to depressed wages. And income inequality generally. But good for US income inequality. 5) Borjas -- immigration contributes some to income inequality -- but on balance, good for the world! 6) Not auspicious from nationalist standpoint--but allowing nationalism to hide behind egalitarianism is wrong! 7) BUT -- inequality may bring political instability, violence, or revolution -- but this is an indictment of egalitarianism itself, and hard to say such predictions are often true. PLUS, public policy can accomodate. 8) And if our institutions prove inadequate -- not an indictment of capitalism, but rather our institutions 9) and redistributive policies within countries should seek to maximize overall welfare, so as to have more to redistribute!

Drake and Doherty

"Key findings on how Americans view the U.S. role in the world". 1) Americans are wary about how much the U.S. should be involved globally. 2) Support for increased defense spending is growing - especially among Republicans. 3) ISIS is seen as the top global threat facing the country; climate change and refugees are the most politically divisive. 4) Americans remain divided on the best way to defeat global terrorism. 5) There's a persistent partisan gap in sympathies for Israel and the Palestinians 6) Americans overwhelmingly view NATO membership as beneficial for the U.S. 7) there are several big gaps within both the Republican and Democratic camps on America's role in the world, including on ISIS engagement, anti-terrorism, refugees, and engagement in the world economy within both parties based on primary Pres. candidate support

Pritchett (2015)

"Labor Mobility and Migration: The Missing Heart of the Sustainable Development Goals." 1) E-verify blantantly discriminates based on nation of origin, does not adhere to equality of opportunity 2) Inequality in the world driven by differences in WHERE people are from 3) The rich in poor countries are poorer than the poor in Denmark 4) Restriction of the movement of labor is inconsistent with UN desire to mitigate inequality 5) especially frustrating for Pritchett because the UN shows a willingness to articulate a moral vision in other areas, such as the treatment of women and girls

The Economist Intelligence Unit.

"Long-term Macroeconomic Forecasts: Key Trends to 2050." 1) China is expected to overtake the United States in 2026 in nominal GDP in US dollar terms and maintain its position as the largest economy to 2050. India is expected to move up the rankings to third place. Mexico and Indonesia join top 10. Western Europe falls, Italy out of top 10 2) long-term forecasts suggest that Asia's rise will continue up to 2050—not quite at the same pace, but by 2050 it will account for 53% of global GDP. 3) Top 3 economies are US, China, India by 2030. By 2050 they will each be richer than the next 5 combined 4) Global growth rates decline while global growth remains steady. Much recent growth has been driven by population growth - which will slow dramatically. AFRICA, though will benefit from large labor force / population growth 5) Many economies, however, will see an absolute DECLINE in the size of the labor force -- incentives to boost participation rates and immigration! 6) Though many emerging markets are slated to overtake developed economies, the usual suspects will still domminate on a per-capita basis

Nuttall

"Looking for Home" (The Economist) 1)The migrant crisis in Europe last year was only one part of a worldwide problem. The rich world must get better at managing refugees, says Tom Nuttall 2) 60m refugees worldwide, 20m stranded outside their home countries, 45% of which are "protracted situations" 3) Many EU politicians working to revise UN's Refugee Convention, which binds them to help these people 4) In time the UNHCR identified three "durable solutions" for refugees beyond providing immediate sanctuary: voluntary repatriation, integration in the country that offered asylum and resettlement to another country, usually in the rich world. All are now floundering. 5) That leaves integration or resettlement, but today's politics have turned against resettlement 6) still, refugees treated generously in the EU relative to Greece and Turkey, but reaching its borders is harder to reach. 7) MANY end up in the developing world -- easier to reach (and they also signed the Refugee Convention, but conditions are considerably worse 8) Europe should retain Refugee Convention, cooperate better with one another, and provide assistance to developing countries where migrants are more likely to end up

Financial Times (2016)

"Mexico's Carstens warns on protectionism." 1) Anti-globalisation trend in US and elsewhere could hinder already tepid growth 2) Anti-globalization demands across G20 countries 3) By mid-August G20 governments had imposed 350 new measures that discriminated against foreign commercial interests, almost four times the number they implemented in 2009. 4) Mexico put in the crosshairs by Trump, both candidates turning in part to protectionism 5) Mexico exchange rate declining -- though it generally mirrors the Fed -- will it raise interests rates with the fed? Depends on conditions!

Bunting (2011)

"Millennium Villages Project: Does the 'Big Bang' Approach Work?" 1)Backers of the Millennium Villages Project say their model is successful, and can be replicated across Africa. But critics of their development strategy beg to differ 2) The MVP covers more than 500,000 people in 14 villages in different environments across rural Africa, and works on the principle of multiple interventions across health, education, enterprise and agriculture. I visited a project in south-west Uganda, and the results were certainly impressive. The aim is to show how the millennium development goals can be achieved by 2015 with a limited amount of aid that is matched by community investment (in labour or in kind) and the commitment of local and national government. 3) As part of the announcement this week, the MVP proudly claimed that malaria in its villages had fallen by 72%, access to clean water had more than tripled, and average maize yields had doubled. All of this was achieved on a budget of $60 a head per year, according to the project. The next stage of funding will build on business and enterprise to help villages to link better to the wider market. 4) The nub of the issue was well put by Chris Blattman when he asked on his blog what the MVP will prove. That "a gazillion dollars in aid and lots of government attention produces good outcomes"? This is hardly surprising, says Blattman. The point, he adds, is how we test "the theory of the big push: that high levels of aid simultaneously attacking many sectors and bottlenecks are needed to spur development; that there are positive interactions and externalities from multiple interventions". 5)As Blattman says, the reverse could be true - "that marginal returns to aid may be high at low levels and that we can also have a big impact with smaller sector-specific interventions". 6) MVP will likely not answer the large and universal aide vs. small and targeted aid question 7) Others cite China 1990s example --> where development grants improvements were essentially erased 5 years after the program ended

European Commission Fact Sheet (2015)

"Questions and Answers on the European Commission Communication: The Paris Protocol - A Blueprint for Tackling Global Climate Change Beyond 2020." 1) REVISIT FOR SPECIFICS ( YOU NEED A LOT OF WORK ON CLIMATE CHANGE ) 2) 3) 4) 5)

Autor, Dorn, and Hanson

"The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States." --HIGHLIGHTS THE DISTRIBUTIONAL COSTS, even if there are aggregate gains Chinese import competition DOES negatively effect US import-competing workers and industries (higher UE, lower wages and LFPR) --China dominate US LIC imports --take regional economies as unit of analysis --Staggering incrase in imports -- over 1000 percent from 91 to 07 --"Specifically, we relate changes in manufacturing and nonmanufacturing employment, earnings, and transfer payments across US local labor markets to changes in market exposure to Chinese import competition. "We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization and instrumenting for US imports using changes in Chinese imports by other high-income countries. Rising imports cause higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and reduced wages in local labor markets that house importcompeting manufacturing industries. In our main specification, import competition explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in US manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in more trade-exposed labor markets.

Ackerman and Stanton

"The Cost of Climate Change: What We'll Pay if Global Warming Continues Unchecked. 1)1) 80 percent US emissions reduction to lead international action 2) Potential cost of 3.6 % of GDP -- with four impacts alone (hurricane damage, real estate losses, energy costs, and water cotsts) coming at 1.8% or about 2 trillion annually 3) Focuses on the "business as usual" potential outcome -- with an eventual rise of 13oF and 18oF in Alaska -- leading to greater amount of hurricanes, droughts, and other drastic weather incidents -- as well as affecting the economy's bottom line 4) FOCUS HERE IS ON ERRATIC EVENTS, INCLUDING WILDFIRES 5) Weather-dependent industries hit hardest, but no one exempt 6) Stronger and more damaging hurricanes. Destruction of coastal real estate by rising sea level. Rising energy and water costs with heat waves, droughts. -- price tag of about $2 trillion per year by 2100 in JUST THESE CATEGORIES (about 4% of GDP per year) 7) However, the sad irony is that POORER countries will likely experience more intense effects with a larger percentage GDP impact on their economies 8) Many non-monetarty costs, but this focus helps us begin to understand the requisite investments. And given our record of emissions, we will need to substantially contribute or lead the way. 9) MUST reduce emissions by 80% by 2050 10) Recommendations a) Comprehensive mandatory limits on global warming pollution to stimulate investments in all sectors. (B) overcome barriers to investment in energy efficiency to lower abatement costs starting now -- market failures to overcome, limits themselves won't be enough incentive -- public support for these projects can overcome externalities (such as in smart transportation), and (C) support the development of low-carbon energy supply, including renewable electricity, low-carbon fuels, and carbon capture and disposal

Greenspan

"The Crisis" 1) Decline in real interest rates (geopolitical) drive home price bubble, but SECURITIZATION of US subprime market spawning toxic assets drives collapse 2) Failure of regulation that required forecast 3) PRIMARY IMPERATIVE -- increased capital and liquidity requirements, END of TBTF policies 4) Evidence suggests monetary policy was NOT the source of the bubble 5) HEAVY leveraging, inadequate capital requirements set off string of defaults 6) Advises against SYSTEMIC REGULATOR, especially given the failure, in this case, of forecasting regulation

Ball

"The Great Recession's Long-Term Damage" 1) Counter to macroeconomic theory, that output should return to normal -- mounting evidence that deep recessions have lingering effect on output -- with potential output losses following 2008 approaching level of ACTUAL output loss, and growth rate of potential output significantly lower today 2) POTENTIAL MECHANISMS? reduce capital accumulation? slow the growth of total factor productivity? decrease in the formation of businesses with new technology? 3) CAN POLICYMAKERS REVERSE THE TREND? -- procyclical investment, he thinks, and strong expansion can reverse hysteresis 4) OTHERWISE, LASTING HARM MAY BE DONE. But he thinks expansion can drive potential growth back up to pre-crisis levels -- or, at least, it could prevent the potential damage from the crisis from continuig to grow 5) Uses data from 23 countries

Summers (2014)

"The Inequality Puzzle" 1) Piketty's fame and status deserved -- struck a nerve. Income inequality among top 1%, tenth of one percent, and .01% astounding 2) However, not all of it will stand, nor are his policy proposals complete or realistic 3) Strenghts, and Piketty's conclusions -- share of income going to the top has risen sharply. HIS THEORETICAL CONTRIBUTION -- growth in wealth or capital exceeds that of economic growth -- concentrated share over time -- increasing wealth-to-income ratios (r>g) -- he says this is normal state of capitalism. 4) TWO challenges -- (1) does not take into account diminishing returns to capital and (2) assumes wealth all reinvested. Also, Piketty suggests elasticity of substitution is greater than one, so that increase in capital (accumulation) leads to increase in capital's share 5) Summers thinks that rising share of profits in income relative to labor (capital) is evidence of technological change (automation) and cheap foreign labor 6) Also takes issue with reinvestment hypothesis -- he claims 5 cent per dollar increase in spending could offset Piketty 7) Further, there is plenty to criticize in corporate governance arrangements, but there IS something, he thinks, between incomes at the top and productivity -- and largely reflects financial sector. The end is essentially a review of lecture 8) EVEN on capital accumulation -- he thinks it will be robots who perform routine tasks, not wealth being amassed, that drives inequality 9) Summers hopes to push beyond Piketty's tax suggestion to help the middle class! -- antimonopoly, profit sharing, undoing excessive IP, etc. 10) Further, he thinks bottom-up growth, not inequality, should be of greater concern -- such as infrastructure investment!

Sachs (2011)

"The Millennium Villages Project is Working Well." 1)The project is not throwing 'gazillions' of dollars at poverty, and evaluation is based on rigorous measurement, detailed comparisons with other sites, and peer-reviewed science 2) The Millennium Villages Project (MVP) is a systematic approach to achieving the millennium development goals in rural Africa. The model is community-led development with simultaneous, integrated, science-based interventions in five main areas: agriculture, education, health, infrastructure (roads, power, water, sanitation, connectivity), and business development. The project's bottom line is to achieve the MDGs in the millennium village sites in ways that are rigorously documented, replicable and scalable. 3) The project spent $60 on each villager every year between 2006 and 2011 to build the capital of the community. That prompted further contributions from the government itself and in-kind contributions from the community. This is a replicable and scalable budget model, well within the official development assistance amounts donors have long promised. It's nonsense to suggest otherwise, or to change the game now this amount has been shown to work so powerfully.

Chin and Culotta

"The Science of Inequality: What the Numbers Tell Us." 1) HUGE data set, including on those in developing countries -- liken it to human genome project 2) US wide rift between top and bottom -- 1% control 20% -- increasing, as well as within the 99% 3) US inequality, up to gilded age levels, far from extreme in global context -- US gini at .4 while SAfrica gini at .7 4) High degree of inequality in Africa -- many assume Africa&emerging economies seeking to use rising tide to lift all boats -- not truly the case. 5) BUT, not evidence to support this trade off is necessary 6) Exploration into psychological effects of inequality on mobility -- beyond education and health

Wolf (2012)

"The World's Hunger for Public Goods." 1) Unclear whether today's states can - or will be allowed to - provide public goods (what we now demand) 2) public goods -- from stability, security, science, environment, honest administration and rights -- are the foundation of society and civilization 3) As we become better at providing private goods, however, public goods become more complex! 4) Goes over technical components of what a public good is 5) Public action necessary to solve such market failures! Even stability is a public good (think the big short douche guy). THE STORY OF THE STATE IS THE STORY OF PUBLIC GOODS PROVISION (from "roving bandits" to Rome and China to Feudalism (security by gangsters) 6) With industrial revolution and global integration -- public goods become more complex. NOW -- GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS 7) States cannot provide them on their own -- they must cooperate 8) Best way to cooperate is through leadership, but we are moving toward a multipolar era! As it becomes evident that market stability should not be assumed! 8) AND -- the states themselves are unpopular! -- managing this world will take extraordinary creativity

Bernanke (2016)

"The dollar's international role: An 'exorbitant privilege'?" 1) Fed actions believed to be particularly consequential because of US dollar's role - 60% of world reserves 2) Does it unfairly advantage US or magnify importance of Fed actions? 3) Change from Bretton Woods peg to USD --decisions about currencies to use no much more decentralized. Dollar maintenance a function of inertia. 4) Benefits to all include its stability, liquidity (deep reserves), safety, and Fed's record of being a lender of last resort. 5) What does the US get? a) symbolic "seal of approval" - with the "exorbitant privelege" being significantly eroded 6) WHY? -- competition from other currencies a) US government pays slightly HIGHER rates rn on government debt from abroad 7) Other benefits -- foreign USD reserves are technically a VERY small interest free loan to the US - exchange-rate risk SLIGHTLY less (though not by much as it floats against other world currencies) while safe haven effect hurts US exporters in times of uncertainty . 8) English as common business language a much larger benefit 9) Benefit to the Fed -- many economies, especially emerging markets -- borrow in USD. magnifies fed policy to some extent -- though it is certainly not "the world's central bank" -- ease of borrowing in emerging economies dependent on other factors too, including local interest rates

Frieden (2012)

"The modern capitalist world economy: A historical overview." 1. Mercantilism notable relationship between the state and markets—desire for both intervention and isolation on the one hand and international market development on the otheroscillation. With secure continent and British naval supremacy gives way to freer trade in 19th century. a. KEY HERE - the gold standard. Driven by silver discoveries and international integration. 2. Openness replaces, diametrically opposes mercantilism 3. Interwar autarky, with war debts generating tension. Western Europe and NAFDR type open-facing policies 4. Bretton Woods - contours shaped by governments together - open trade and investment, stable currencies, and develop Bretton Woods institutions. Fixed monetary order on USD and gold standards, with some flexibility a. Gradually increasing economic ties to each other 5. Still, Africa and LA uses ISI - world split into 3 6. 1960s—Vietnam War drives US inflation. They opt to break from Gold Standard instead of austerity. Rediscovery of foreign investment operations also strained the fixed exchange rate regime 7. Another huge development collapse of centrally planned economies

Taub

"The rise of American authoritarianism." 1) A niche group of political scientists may have uncovered what's driving Donald Trump's ascent. What they found has implications that go well beyond 2016. 2) Trump embodies the classic authoritarian leadership style: simple, powerful, and punitive-the first of many Trumps in American politics 3) The political phenomenon we identify as right-wing populism seems to line up, with almost astonishing precision, with the research on how authoritarianism is both caused and expressed -- a real constituency independent of Trump that will endure 4) Discerned through child-rearing practices 5) The social threat theory helps explain why authoritarians seem so prone to reject not just one specific kind of outsider or social change, such as Muslims or same-sex couples or Hispanic migrants, but rather to reject all of them 6) Non-authoritarians who were sufficiently frightened of threats like terrorism could essentially be scared into acting like authoritarians 7) Authoritarians highly likely to support five policies--military force over diplomacy, barring illegal immigrants, extra airport checks on Middle Eastern descent, national ID card, scanning all phone calls 8) We may now have a de facto three-party system: the Democrats, the GOP establishment, and the GOP authoritarians

The Economist, Special Report

"The sticky superpower." 1) America remains the world's economic hegemon even as its share of the global economy has fallen and its politics have turned inwards. That is an unstable combination 2) if handled badly, the growing gap between America's economic weight and its power will cause frustration and instability. 3) In the first change in the world economic order since 1920-45, when America overtook Britain, that dominance is now being eroded--rise of China and India 4) But any reordering of the world economy's architecture will not be as fast or decisive as it was last time--strength of US relative to postwar UK, interconnectedness of global economy -- including the shift toward global SERVICES instead of goods trade 5)America's indifference towards the IMF and World Bank, institutions it created to govern the system and over which it has vetoes, reflects POWER THROUGH NEGLECT. (including monetary footprint commanded by the Fed). 6) Cheap borrowing through dollar issuance, safe haven effect 7) AMERICA IS CAPABLE OF PROVIDING GLOBAL LEADERSHIP -- but it is falling short of those ideals today post-crisis (though it did the right thing with TARP and the stimulus 8) The challenge is to create an architecture that can cope with America's status as a sticky superpower.

Helpman

"Understanding Global Trade". Harvard University Press. 2011. Chapter 3 "Gainers and Losers" 1. Considers (1) if heightened consumption opportunities are preferable and (2) distributional conflicts between winners and losers 2. ASSUMPTION THAT EVERYONE GAINS FROM TRADE IN FREE MARKET rests on assumption that all workers are alike 3. Cases - US 1807-1809 and Japan in 1859 4. Both countries experienced isolation costs 5. Outlook on globalization depends on if you're an export- or import-competing worker - sectoral affinity of inputs 6. COMPENSATING LOSERS - it is possible!!! With lump-sum transfers...if so much information were not necessary a. The alternative (Dixit and Noram) - taxes and subsidies so that the prices faced by domestic consumers are the same as they were in autarky b. Not really a practical, applicable solution, even harder to APPLY in democracies

Summers (2016)

"Voters Deserve Responsible Nationalism, not Reflex Globalism." Agreements should be judged not by how many barriers are torn down but whether people are empowered 1) Written shortly after Brexit -- it is clear that populist opposition to integration is on the rise 2) Central question -- how for internationalists to make our case? 3) Gresham's Law of advocacy -- bolder claims driving out the more prudent ones (rational, academic argument about the gains from trade, for example) 4) For example, NAFTA made the US better off -- but not consistent with boldest claims 5) SECOND PLANK -- to provide greater domestic policies to support poor and middle class. Makes sense, but past eight years saw BOTH these policies and low UE -- but trade still unpopular -- such policies necessary but not sufficient, it seems! 6) NEW approach: pursue, first and foremost, welfare and interests of CITIZENS, not abstract sense of global good. Ceding power to international tribunals and footloose corporations adds insult to perhaps inevitable injury (of tech and trade) 7) NEEDED -- RESPONSIBLE NATIONALISM. Pursue citizen's economic welfare with potential to harm other citizens is circumscribed -- otherwise, more populist demagogues

Lawrence, Bressand, and Ito

"When is International Cooperation Desirable?" **IN the book -- need to return to this one!!! 1) MANY considerations affect the answer -- jurisdictional scope required to correct failures, internalize costs and benefits , and achieve redistribution, technology of producing efficiently, correlation of disturbances across nations, patterns and intensities of preferences, legitimacy of claims about fundamental values 2) SOME considerations point to decentralized governance of today -- accountability, respect for variety of preferences. HOWEVER, spillovers and global public goods point to deeper integration 3) VARIABLE CONSTRUCTION -- look to the book itself for review. 4) WE KNOW that global governance is undesirable 5) There is no blanket ideal level of jurisdictional level for all governance. For the most part, the beneftis from free trade and investment should not be abridged. At the same time, varied national circumstnaces and preferences suggest that udner many circumstances and different institutions and rules are desirable. However, when markets and national governments fail, some measure of international governance should be considered.

Lawrence (2015)

A Numbers Argument for Renewing Trade Adjustment Assistance 1. People WILL be displaced, and that displacement will be costlybut will it lead to net negative impact? 2. FROM THE NATION'S STANDPOINT, TPP is a good deal (cites Petri) and TAA can be used to compensate those displaced 3. In the long run benefits FAR exceed the costs 4. TAA imperfect but the best option given current political realities

Pisani-Ferry, Rottgen, Sapir, Tucker, and Wolff

ALTERNATIVELY: Pisani-Ferry et. al (including Tucker) "Europe after Brexit: A proposal for a continental partnership." Participation in a series of selected common policies consistent with access to the Single Market; o Participation in a new CP system of inter-governmental decision making and enforcement; o Contribution to the EU budget; o Close cooperation on foreign policy, security and, possibly, defence matters; NOT A PURE RULE TAKER. But ultimately the EU would have decision-making power After the British decision to leave the EU, Europe's trajectory, even its destiny, has again become a matter of choice. In an increasingly volatile world, neither the EU nor the UK have an interest in a divorce that diminishes their influence as the balance of economic power shifts away from the North-Atlantic world. We propose a new form of collaboration, a continental partnership. The UK will want to have some control over labour mobility, as well as leaving behind the EU's supranational decision-making. The proposed continental partnership would consist in participating in goods, services, capital mobility and some temporary labour mobility as well as in a new system of inter-governmental decision making and enforcement of common rules to protect the homogeneity of the deeply integrated market. The UK would have a say on EU policies but ultimate formal authority would remain with the EU. This results in a Europe with an inner circle, the EU, with deep and political integration, and an outer circle with less integration. Over the long-run this could also serve as a vision for structuring relations with Turkey, Ukraine and other countries.

Schwab (2011)

Acknowledge Doha's demise and Move on to Save the WTO 1. To keep the multilateral trading system healthy, it is necessary to end the Doha Round's stranglehold on the system. This should happen quickly in order to ensure that the December 2011 ministerial meeting focuses on future work plans, rather than recriminations about a Doha Development Agenda that has struggled through one failed encounter after another. 2. Negotiators should refocus their efforts on near-term wins and on building the next Round - which need not be another behemoth, but perhaps a "rolling round" of reforms and new market access, or a few highest-common-denominator plurilateral, or WTO-plus deals. Ultimately, these should lead to a broader-based market access and rules agreement under the multilateral auspices of the WTO 3. One thing that is quite clear from years of struggling with the basic structure of Doha is that the combination of formula and self-selected flexibilities has not worked. It resulted in a situation where every negotiator had to assume the worst case - knowing the political costs they would pay for their own liberalisation, but expecting their trading partners to use flexibilities to negate any meaningful new market-access. 4. Another key lesson is that lumping the world's very diverse economies into three basic categories - developed, developing, and least developed - is a practice that no longer fits 21st century economic and trade realities. Nor is it a structure conducive to negotiations and real progress based on an exchange of market access among nations with large markets. Yes, the advanced economies should be expected to do more than those at lesser stages of economic development, but expectations should also reflect the fact that many emerging economies are characterised by both poverty and sectors where they are globally competitive trade powerhouses.

Andrew Bacevich

America in the World Economy: From the American Century to Globalization." 1. US-led integration following WWII unusual, likely never to be reproduced. Though many miss the stability that came with USD uniformity, relative stability 2. Differences—universal participation, gradualism and compromise gives way to distaste for government intervention and a religious commitment to removing all barriers 3. Today is MORE open, more universal. Has occurred alongside regional blocks (like the EU, a true single market w/ common currency; NAFTA bloc; SA bloc) 4. Integration demonstrated by 2007, US debt crisis, and US dependence on foreign buoy. 5. END of the American Century 6. But, democratization and millions rising out of poverty 7. Bretton Woods, led by the US, rebuilt a failed global order. US built global economy in its image, but the evolution of that economy brought about an end to its dominance

Economist, Stolper-Samuelson (2016)

An Inconvenient Iota of Truth: Stopher-Samuelson Theorem 1. General discussion of Stopler-Samuelson, the story 2. Lose some crispiness as it is applied to other cases (e.g. splitting labor into skilled and unskilled) 3. In Nigeria, tariffs actually would help workers, consistent with the model

Park (b2b)

B2B "The Growth Debate - China & India." 1) Typical view Strong growth for both economies, with investments in education and demand for energy and commodities (services provided by India and manufactures by China) and indefinite growth--an incomplete, even dangerous perspective 2) China -- investment more important to growth than India, the rest of the world 3) Extensive vs. intensive growth -- growth in inputs vs. growth in resource productivity. Getting bigger vs. becoming more like the developed world 4) India has moved away from Soviet-style, extensive model, but deadweight remains. China more intensive 5) Both have grown well -- India through internal resources, Chian through best practice transfer from outside. 6) India -- engineering tech, though most of Indian industry is inefficient. --mostly electronic products rather than physical 7) China -- low labor costs, tech important, but neeed to be set in context of world-best management and administration. 8) "who wins? with greater growth rate -- What matters is the achievement of a holistically superior business model. It is my contention that on balance India, despite its problems of bureaucracy and structure, is for the moment a little ahead of China in this, despite China's being culturally more suited to the model, as stated earlier. 9) China - high saving rate, investment in industrial capacity, lower consumption (slack in consumption) 10) India - lower pop. growth, rise of the middle class. Consumption more like developed economies 11) India's development seen as more sustainable 12) Centrality of value-added chains around the world

NYT -- Both parties bash (2016)

BOTH PARTIES BASH 1. Conditions on the ground in the United States. You are deeply familiar with this. 2. Global trade accounts for far fewer lost jobs than automation or other advances in technology 3. Cites public opinion on Free trade 4. Lots of quotes from Froman, him generally sizing up the opposition and public sentiment

Thea Lee

Beyond Free Trade 1. AFL-CIO economist Thea Lee describes the US trade approval process and how unions and pro-worker organizations mobilize to challenge bad trade proposals (ie NAFTA) -discusses congress, the executive and role of fast tracking -went over four strategies to defeat trade deals

Lawrence (2012)

Competing with Regionalism by Revitalizing the WTO 1. Doha Round clearly at an impasse 2. Also, clear forces driving for globalism, integration a. Also, emergence of developing economies (with South-South deals) 3. Regionalism flourishing, multilateralism suffering under Doha impasse 4. Weakening WTO could also impact relationships between largest trading nations, hurting regionalism as well 5. HE CALLS FOR INTERACTION BETWEEN REGIONAL AGREEMENTS, GLOBAL AGREEMENTS 6. End Doha, launch plurilateral agreements 7. Tougher disciplines for FTAs reduce discriminatory effects, draconian rules of origin to let developing members get a seat at the table

McKinsey Global Institute

Financial Globalization: Retreat or Reset 1. "Cross-border capital flows remain 60 percent below their pre-crisis peak, and growth in financial assets around the world has stalled. Continued retrenchment could jeopardize investment and recovery unless policy makers can "reset" the financial system for a healthier flow of financing that supports economic growth." 2. Size and leverage of the financial sector in part drove the crisis 3. "With global financial markets at an inflection point, the report outlines two starkly different future scenarios. One path leads to a balkanized structure that relies more heavily on domestic capital formation. While this outcome may reduce the risk of another financial crisis, it may provide too little financing for long-term investment. A second scenario, envisioning a more sustainable approach to financial-market development and global integration, avoids the excesses of the past but supports robust economic growth." 4. Rise in FDI, however stabilizing to protect global supply chains??

Fishlow *** (1985)

Fishlow -- history, can probably skip

Irwin (2009)

Free Trade Under Fire 1. NEW, empirical evidence confirming the classical arguments in favor of free trade 2. Ricardo and Smith - comparative advantage and specialization 3. Gains from trade scale economies lens may actually UNDERESTIMATE 4. Productivity gains! From increased competition as well, R&D investments, and diffusion of technology 5. **Frankel-Romer approach w/ economic growth? 6. Additional benefits of trade intellectual and moral, democratization, peace (?), 7. Argues AGAINST deleterious effects of trade on the environment - FREE TRADE AND THE ENVIRONMENT ARE NOT INCOMPATIBLE 8. Still, free trade not a magic bullet its benefits depend on solid macroeconomic management, property rights, etc. BUT RESTRICTING TRADE HAS REAL ECONOMIC COSTS

Irwin (2009)

Free trade under fire 1. GATT has set rules of the road for 60 years 2. Uruguay Round (94) liberalizes ag, extends to new areas 3. Establishment of the WTO - formally in 94 w/ stronger dispute settlement institutions 4. This chapter a. GATT history i. RTAA shifts political playing field in favor of trade ii. Ag inclusion in GATT avoided until Uruguay round, in part due to pressures to protect domestic farmers iii. Developed GATS, TRIPs, TRIMs (services, investment, IP) iv. EVALUATING GATT - clearly a success. Growth in trade much larger in GATT countries, multilateralism has given RECIPROCITY as a domestic political tool b. Evaluates WTO - more comprehensive inclusion of developing countries i. WTO more than GATT, but not much more. A member-driven institution ii. More broad than the GATT (investment, services, IP) iii. No enforcement power iv. DISPUTE SETTLEMENT— 1. Three-member panel appointed 2. Ruling handed down leads to cooperation or right to retaliate 3. WTO—cannot force US to change its laws 4. DISPUTE SETTLEMENT HAS BECOME MOST CONTROVERSIAL ASPECT c. Examines controversies d. Prospects for Doha round e. Evaluates increasing importance of regional trade agreements

Rachman (2009)

From Zero-Sum Future: American Power in an Age of Anxiety 1. 2009—after collapse of Lehman brothers. Obviously, something had gone wrong 2. Some capitalist leaders seem to be flirting with communism even as China presents on Adam Smith 3. People thinking about the interwar period global economy 4. Questioning globalization? US has economic rivals? 5. US questions benefits, EU with its tight union questions benefits 6. ZERO-SUM LOGIC THREATENS WORLD ORDER, undermines US foreign policy logic under Bush and Clinton, who encouraged the rise of China 7. Between 1978, progress in India, Asia, and the EU inspires unprecedented optimism in 2007 8. Summers tells Davos - horrible employment situation for US men 9. HE STARTS WITH 1978 - the opening of China, as the operative date going until 2008 (as opposed to American view of Berlin Wall to 9/11) 10. Age of transformation with China and India rising up to 1991 and the age of optimism with fall of the USSR. It ends in 2008 11. NOW - age of Anxiety with ZERO-SUM logic

Immelt (2016)

GE's Immelt Signals an End to Seven Decades of Globalization 1. General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt, in a speech that may signal an end to seven decades of globalization, said his company is making a "bold pivot" in strategy as a response to rising protectionist political pressures. 2. "In the face of a protectionist global environment, companies must navigate the world on their own," he said. "We must level the playing field, without government engagement. This requires dramatic transformation." 3. As a response, he said, GE "will localize." 4. "In the future, sustainable growth will require a local capability inside a global footprint. GE has 420 factories around the world giving us tremendous flexibility," Immelt said. "We used to have one site to make locomotives; now we have multiple global sites that give us market access. A localization strategy can't be shut down by protectionist policies."

Rodrik (2012)

Global Capital Rules 1. IMF puts rubber stamp on some limited capital controls 2. When developing countries were getting ****ed, nobody much cared. After 2008, you can bet they do 3. "A world in which different sovereigns regulate finance in diverse ways requires traffic rules to manage the intersection of separate national policies. The assumption that all countries will converge on the ideal of free capital mobility diverts us from the hard work of formulating those rules."

Summers (1999)

Globalization That Works for People 1. I would like today to share some reflections on four aspects of this debate that I think do not always receive the emphasis they deserve. -- First, the political and national security case for America's open markets policy. -- Second, the direct economic case for open markets in terms of the living standards of the American people. (and we wouldn't be unilaterally removing the "rocks from our harbor") -- Third, the difficult question of how to make sure that integration works for people. (legal framework of mutual responsibility and social safety) - WTO must work closely with ILO (I Labor O) -- Fourth, the political challenge of maintaining support for global integration in our country. (US traditionally inward-looking, absence of the communist threat)

Frieden (2008)

Globalization and Exchange Rate Policy 1. Exchange rates have instrumental impact, and as such are deeply political 2. Globalization brings these issues even more to the fore - 1870 to 1914 - gold standard was major political controversy 3. Politicians - myopic 4. REVISIT THIS READING ENTIRELY 5. CONCLUSION - Exchange rates are political. They affect the interests of powerful groups and of consumers. They affect elections, and are affected by them. International economic integration only heightens their impact and their political prominence. As the world economy has become more open—and especially as developing countries have become more open—exchange rates have become even more highly politicized, more controversial, and more subject to mass and special-interest political pressures

Pritchett - Flailing State

I argue that for India we need a new category4. I argue that India is today a flailing state---a nation-state in which the head, that is the elite institutions at the national (and in some states) level remain sound and functional but that this head is no longer reliably connected via nerves and sinews to its own limbs. In many parts of India in many sectors, the everyday actions of the field level agents of the state—policemen, engineers, teachers, health workers—are increasingly beyond the control of the administration at the national or state level.

Borjas

Immigration and globalisation: a review essay 1) Central question - what would a world without borders look like? 2) predictions about trade flows equalizing prices and wages while raising global income have not really been borne out -- so economists have engaged similarly with immigration predictions 3) The consensus in much of the literature -- dramatic increase in world GDP, with gains accruing in years after. Proposed that world poverty massively mitigated, if not eliminated! -- these models assume MASSIVE migration from South hem. to North hem. 4) Incentive for receiving countries to raise restrictions, however, raises questions about these benefits. 5) HE believes this is evidence of countries acting in their own self interest -- choosing the policies that are most beneficial for them. Raises questions about overall benefits -- the public and politicians might know that there are few benefits when accounting for adverse spillovers The fact that these countries instead keep enacting immigration restrictions hints at the possibility that perhaps those trillion-dollar bills are not real. I know that an easy retort to this interpretation of the evidence is that the policymakers and populations of the receiving countries form a "rabid collection of xenophobes and racists." But another interpretation, which may be just as valid, is that perhaps those policymakers and native populations know something that the social engineers ignore: there are few gains to be had after accounting for the adverse spillovers Abstracting from these ethical issues, there is a clear message for anyone examining the link between immigration and globalization: beware of social engineers who promise the existence of trillion-dollar bills on a mythical sidewalk at the end of the rainbow; those promises are often based on flimsy modeling and inadequate evidence.

Feldstein (1999)

International Capital Flows: An Introduction • Political changes, which have flown under the radar somewhat, have been key to capital flows • New tech important too • Capital flows higher domestic saving with high returns • FDI higher capital stock, tech, management • "The Asian problems that began in Thailand in the summer of 1997 are still unfolding. Although a full analysis of the factors that precipitated the widespread series of currency crises remains to be done, it is clear that its fixed exchange rate regime and chronic current account deficit increased the likelihood of a crisis in Thailand." • Have to consider how international capital flows can contribute to currency and financial crises

Kohn

International Perspective on the Crisis and Responsibility." 1. Subprime mortgage market illustrates risks of interconnectedness 2. More macroprudential approach to regulatory framework

Kee, Looi, Neagu, and Nicita

Is protectionism on the rise? Assessing national trade policies during the crisis of 2008." 1. "This paper quantifies trade policy changes and the associated trade impacts for about 100 countries between 2008 and 2009. Results show that there has been no widespread increase in protectionism. Only a few countries, including Russia, Argentina, Turkey, and China, have increased tariffs on major imported products. The United States and the EU, by contrast, rely mainly on antidumping duties to shield domestic industries. Overall, while the rise in tariffs and antidumping duties may have jointly caused global trade to drop by US$43 billion, it explains less than 2% of the collapse in world trade during the crisis period."

MANKIW READINGS -- NEED TO REVISIT BEFORE TOMORROW

MANKIW READINGS -- NEED TO REVISIT BEFORE TOMORROW

WaPo -- mandate against TPP? (2016)

Mandate against TPP? 1. Barney Frank - RIP TPP 2. Paul Ryan trying to appeal to anti-TPPers - "administration screwed some things up" 3. NO EVIDENCE OF SHIFT IN PUBLIC OPINION - most support trade, most haven't heard of TPP enough to form an opinion. Among those who have, largely even 4. Froman - "The fact is you don't get a vote on automation, on whether there's going to be a new generation of computers or robots that might replace your job. You don't really get to vote on globalization. It's a factor of the containerization of shipping, the spread of broadband, the integration of economies like China and Eastern Europe that used to be closed and are now part of the global economy."

Melendez-Ortiz

Mega-Regionals: What is going on? In Mega-Regional Trade Agreements: Game-Changers or Costly Distractions for the World Trading System 1. RTAs - regional trade agreements with ALL barriers lowered. 2. Go deeper on policy issues 3. Consolidation RTAs also emerging! 4. And MEGA-REGIONAL RTAs with deep integration TPP, TTIP 5. Could these deals bolster and compliment the multilateral trade infrastructure? a. "regulatory reform essential to 21st century world markets such as services, investment, competition policy, regulatory convergence, the digital economy and customs cooperation."

Summers (2010)

Reforming and Renewing the Financial System 1. Financial system has in fact generated risk. Need to trim the excesses of the industry 2. 6 areas of reform: a. First, we need comprehensive requirements for capital and liquidity b. Second, firms should not be able to choose their own regulator. We must limit regulatory competition c. Third, we must strengthen regulation of institutions and activities broadly and close loopholes that would allow any players to evade regulation. d. Fourth, American consumers deserve a strong, independent Consumer Financial Protection Agency e. Fifth, resolution authority.

IMF (2016)

Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere 1) negative growth overall, with some performing decently and others driving big losses 2) Like Africa, weak external demand and decline in commodity prices are essential driver 3) These contribute to decreased inflows, downward exchange rate pressure 4) Declining terms of trade! 5) Adjustment, fiscal, limited by high debt! Weak domestic demand necessitate flexible exchange rates, loose monetary policy 6) Structural policies: Over the medium term, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to remain below historical trends. While underlying reasons vary across countries, there are common elements: (1) inadequate infrastructure networks (see Chapter 5), (2) shortcomings in quality of education, (3) relatively low export diversity and complexity, (4) inadequate financial market development, and (5) lower commodity prices for commodity exporters.2

Summers (2015)

Rescuing Free Trade Deals (June 2015) 1. Compares rejection of League of Nations to TPA down votes 2. MOST Republicans oppose TAA 3. FOUR SALIENT POINTS: a. Lower tariffs era over i. Goal of new ones regulatory harmonization b. Balancing of political costs of legislating trade agreements against those of other forms of internationalism i. If political capital had instead gone to reform and heightened funding for the IMF, could have been achieved with greater potential benefits c. there needs to be careful consideration going forward of the ramifications of trade agreements that include some countries while excluding others i. Political necessity has in recent weeks led advocates to increasingly aggressive formulations about how the TPP enables us to gain advantage at the expense of China. We may come to regret this provocation. Certainly, it will be important down the road to consider China's possible membership in the TPP on terms no different from those applied to others. d. Global economic challenge today profoundly different from the one of a generation ago i. Our challenge now is less to increase globalization than to make the globalization we have work for our citizens. None of this is to suggest an end to trade diplomacy. Rather, it is to suggest that such talks must be only one component of a broader approach that has as primary stakeholders not just global companies but also those concerned with economic equity, protection of the environment, opportunities for workers to migrate and financialstability. If the TPP is to be secured, there must be clear signals that international economic diplomacy will turn to these concerns.

Waibel

Retaliating Against Exchange-Rate Manipulation under WTO Rules 1. What legal basis is there for retaliating against China's exchange-rate policy? This column says that IMF rules are likely inadequate to rule against China, while its policy does not constitute a WTO-punishable export subsidy. It argues that exchange-rate conflicts should be handled by a proposed IMF dispute settlement mechanism, not the WTO. 2. Principle of monetary sovereignty 3. IMF articles establish some controls, but give members the benefit of the doubt 4. Burden of proof in showing bad intentions is with the alleging state 5. Mattoo and Subramanian (2008) advocate a new WTO covered agreement specifically on exchange-rate manipulation. The implementation of this proposal would likely undermine the central role of the IMF in international finance. The better route is to develop a robust dispute settlement mechanism in the field of international finance itself, including if member states so desire, for exchange rates. We currently lack such a system by design. Member states have so far been unwilling to confer such powers on an international organisation and accept greater restrictions on their monetary sovereignty.

Frieden (1998)

Sectoral Conflict and Foreign Economic Policy, 1914-1940." 1. Despite Wilsonian ideals, 1914-1940 marked by retreat from global events 2. High tariffs, don't participate in world economic conferences, etc. 3. Not until late 30s, early 40s do they switch position, AND BOY, DO THEY SWITCH 4. Lead worldwide liberalization starting at Bretton Woods and building the UN 5. DOMESTIC political and socioeconomic groups can drive U.S. foreign policy, not merely the nation's international positioning 6. DESPITE the gain in standing among major US banks and corporations internationally, the OTHER domestic political coalition is able to stymie liberalization—it is not until crisis, economic and military, throughout the world that US internationalist proponents achieve victory

Bremmer

Superpower. Three Choices for America's Role in the World. ***returning to this later*** 1) "Chapter 3, "Independent America," will try to persuade you that it's time for America to declare independence from the need to solve other people's problems and to finally realize our country's enormous untapped potential by focusing our attentions at home. Chapter 4, "Moneyball America," will argue that important parts of chapter 3 are dangerous nonsense, that there are a few things in this world that must be done, and that it's in America's interest for Americans to do them. Chapter 5, "Indispensable America," will insist that these other two visions of our country's future are unworthy of a great nation, that America can never establish lasting security and prosperity in the interconnected modern world until we have helped others win their freedom, and that we must keep our eyes on this prize even if it takes a hundred years to achieve. In chapter 6, I'll detail why all three of these choices have strengths and flaws, but I'll also argue that refusing to choose is the worst choice of all." 2)

Autor (2010)

The Polarization of Job Opportunities in the US Labor Market: Implications for Employment and Earnings 1. Analyzes state of the labor market 2. Labor market polarization! 3. High-skill, high-wage vs. low-skill, low-wage 4. Key contributors - automation, integration of labor markets 5. He links it to declining middle skills opportunities 6. The college DEGREE is the big gap-driver (both positive and negative along this dimension) 7. Can we meet this somewhat gloomy forecast with some forward-looking policy? 8. Investments in energy, healthcare, infrastructure

Derek Thompson

The Case for Smart Protectionism 1. SMART protectionism = Paul Ryan abroad, Bernie at home 2. Defense of NAFTA a. 1. Mexican workers are people too; and (2) if we are unhappy with income, employment situation in the United States then we should pursue domestic macroeconomic policies to mitigate the effects of lower prices on American goods b. Not protectionism. PROTECTION 3. Investments in education and REMEDIATION 4. "Automation redistributes wealth—from routine-based work to work that cannot be automated. Globalization redistributes wealth, too—from activities that can be off-shored to the owners of global supply chains. Economic history is one long story of wealth being created, destroyed, consolidated, and, yes, redistributed." 5. "Still, the U.S. worker deserves to be protected. If it's politically useful to call such a policy protectionism, so be it. Future presidents can welcome the future, because the benefits will be broad, while protecting the vulnerable, because their losses will be acute."

Bernanke (2013)

The Crisis as a Classic Financial Panic The Nugget -- 1) Compares to panic of 1907--in which failed attempt at speculation drove a series of bank runs. 2) Fire sale by trust companies precipitates decline in stock market, widespread disruptions 3) THIS ONE HAD A TRIGGER -- subprime mortgages were deficient. Withdrawals of short term funds leads to collapse 4) In both cases, liquidity provision is an essential first step -- but requires a second step. THE RESTORATION OF PUBLIC CONFIDENCE. 5) IN 2000s -- stress tests, temporary guarantees, measures to strengthen institutions' balance sheets 6) Must confront the problem of moral hazard in attempting to make the system safer 7) Some steps -- capital and liquidity requirements, restriction on some activities, carrots and sticks to inspire self-regulation, credible resolution mechanism for SIFIs that does away with TBTF

Baghwati and Sutherland

The Doha Round: Setting a Deadline, Defining a Final Deal 1. Doha - on the brink of failure 2. Blame for political leaders - focus and energy continues to be on bilateral agreements 3. Makes familiar moral case for free trade along with economic innovation and competition argument - peace and democracy inspired by free trade, lifting people out of poverty 4. Threat—2008/2009 outbreak of protectionism 5. Global supply chains, trade in services essential 6. Break-down non-border, tariff barriers. 7. BUT a deal is within reach. Failure to reach it would impose extremely high costs 8. A fork in the road - bilateral, preferential agreements or multilateralism? 9. GLOWING REVIEW OF THE WTO 10. Bilateral deals, while tempting, put the more comprehensive goal of multilateralism at risk 11. NEED to maintain global consensus on openness of the political economy emphasis on concessions at Doha makes members defensive, rather than constructive 12. ONLY US AND CHINA CAN UNLOCK THE STALEMATE call on political leaders

Keynes (1919)

The Economic Consequences of the Peace. Chapter 1: Introduction and Chapter 6: Europe After the Treaty. 1. DEEP pessimism about Versailles - wreak destruction upon Germany, and Europe by extension 2. No compact economic ties between them - disintegration 3. German mark inflating rapidly (same in Italy) 4. Grave position of Italy and Germany!!! 5. French inflation as well - but French were saved by loans from US and Britain 6. Keep Europe (in driving NCO) from acquiring sufficient working capital to rebuild

Rodrik (2011)

The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy 1. Trade, especially imports, economize the use of inputs and resources 2. Must consider positive externalities of domestic labor, especially among the poor 3. Income distribution the flip side to the gains of trade - economists claim this is only in the short run. This might be wrong. 4. Effects of redistribution generally MUCH larger than efficiency gains 5. Free trade has the POTENTIAL to increase everyone's well-being 6. NOTE: complicated answers about the desirability of trade from the Professor to the student 7. AIM - a "better globalization"

Ferguson (2006)

The Next War of the World 1. Bloodiest recorded century at the same time as rapid rise in living standards, expansion of governments 2. EVEN RICH COUNTRIES CAN FALL INTO BITTER CONFLICT, VIOLENCE AGAINST ONE ANOTHER 3. Perhaps driven in part by democratization?! 4. THREE's drive violence - ethnic disintegration, economic volatility, and empires in decline 5. Ethnic disintegration due to political factors can lead to some being treated as second-class citizens 6. Economic volatility exacerbates this^^ 7. Violence more likely to occur as empires declinethey rarely break up peacefully 8. THE MODERN MIDDLE EAST HAS ALL OF THESE COMPONENTS!!! With decline of Saddam Hussein a. AND THE UNITED STATES AS A DE FACTO EMPIRE 9. Ethnic disintegration clashes within (as well as between) Judeo-Christian west and Islamic middle east a. Integration in Iraq reversed since Saddam's fall 10. Escalating civil war in Iraq and growing interest of Iran 11. Economic stabilization and reassertion of US authority to stem rising civil war

Richard Epstein

The Rise of American Protectionism 1. Protectionism, like Hawley-Smoot, is having a "political moment" 2. Has become somewhat of a boogeyman—even though "Free trade offers an uncompromising indictment of, and a powerful corrective for, America's unsound economic policies." 3. Regulatory environment "hostile to growth" - this guy is a raving conservative 4. Risk of trade war, risk that foreign firms less likely to invest with protectionism 5. Unionism = monopoly power seeking a. Cites example of Japanese auto workers and protectionism 6. Rust Belt decline driven by bad management 7. States with right-to-work perform better on manufacturing employment 8. Regulations stabilize interests with voice in government, ignoring those left out

SUMMERS

The Summers financial crisis reading you couldn't get open (towards the end of the reading summary doc) -- try again and skim RIGHT NOW. GET TO THIS WHEN YOU DO CLIMATE CHANGE LATER.

Lawrence (2007)

The United States and the WTO Dispute Settlement System The Doha negotiations have stalled since last summer, and, as the November elections in the United States highlighted, American advocates of economic nationalism are growing in strength. Nevertheless, Robert Lawrence makes a case for the effectiveness of the World Trade Organization (WTO), particularly its dispute settlement system, and the benefits that would accrue to the United States and others from improving its effectiveness. These benefits include expanding world trade and increasing support for an often beleaguered organization that is central to the conduct of world trade. In this Council Special Report, Professor Lawrence addresses the critics of the dispute settlement mechanism—both those who think it should be tougher on countries that violate trade rules and those who think it is already so tough as to violate sovereignty. He points out the successes of the WTO since its creation in 1995 and argues that radical changes to the system are ill-advised. Lawrence nonetheless suggests several areas for reform, from steps that require multilateral negotiations, such as improving opportunities for nonstate actor participation in and enhancing transparency of the process, to changes the United States could make in its own behavior. Notes differences between WTO DSU (understanding) and common law, enforceable systems However, the WTO system remains weaker than the arbitration processes common in domestic legal systems for four major reasons: Enforcement is not automatic, precedents are not strictly binding, standing of all injured parties is not assured—only governments bring cases—and remedies are limited. Responses to: Loss of sovereignty= respectful of sovereigny - can't change laws and nature of the balancing act DSU does Too legalistic =

Stiglitz

The World Needs a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism 1. 2000-2001 IMF calls for sovereign debt restructuring mechanism. There still isn't one. 2. Analogy to how every country has a balanced bankruptcy law 3. Vulture funds seeking a pound of flesh in Argentina stand in the way! politics hijack fairness 4. Even US authorities recognize that public entities have claimants beyond the private ones - there is a social contract to continue to administer services

Ferguson (1998)

The balance of payments question: Versailles and after 1. Punitive reparations in the Versailles treaty hamstrung German economy, gave way to incredible inflation 2. Would require massive glut of German exports. Germans thought this would be persuasive to allies 3. US capital inflow stabilizes the mark in 1920/1921? 4. Leads to German budget deficit, then borrowing of foreign currency 5. In the end, these efforts were ineffective. HAD to print marks in order to pay reparationsgave way to marked depreciation of the mark. But still, imports exceeded exports, so no real pressure on allies which would have come with a German glut in trade surplus 6. Dawes plan provides a small cushion 7. Attempts to use deflation precipitate a domestic economic disaster - MASSIVE recession

Lawrence (2007)

The globalization paradox: More Trade Less Inequality 1. US income inequality has grown but not in a way that suggests trade with developing countries is the major reason. It's not the least skilled who have fallen behind, but profits and the wages of the very richest Americans that have raced ahead. 2. Yet the big surprise is that over the past fifteen years wages of the least skilled Americans - the lowest 10 percent - have kept pace with the median.1 Moreover, since 1999, while real wage growth in general has been sluggish, most US relative wage and compensation measures indicate little evidence of increased inequality. This is true when workers are distinguished by skill, education, unionization, occupation and major sectors. a. MAYBE - sophisticated workers hurt the same amount, ORimports no longer produced in the US b. DESPITE displacement, no real change in inequality

Furman

Trade, Innovation, and Economic Growth 1. Traditional case for trade vs. the new case: expanding competition, innovation, and economic growth 2. As a result, TPP will disproportionately decrease foreign barriers to U.S. exports (which are currently much higher than ours). In addition, TPP will include the highest and most enforceable labor and environmental standards of any trade agreement and will be the first trade agreement to put disciplines on state-owned enterprises and to ensure a free and open internet. 3. Trade increases productivity and innovation by accelerating by stimulating R&D, accelerating the global flow of ideas, and by heightening competition. Larger market generally incentivizes more innovation as well 4. HOWEVER— 5. Globalization has contributed to inequality, though not as much as technology, automation, and education 6. HIS OPINION - productivity growth will be the key driver of middle-class incomes in the United States 7. TRADE, most importantly, is a long-run driver of economic growth

The Economist, Mundell-Fleming (2016)

Two Out of Three Ain't Bad: The Mundell-Fleming Trilemma a. Free movement of Capital, independent monetary policy, fixed exchange rate b. "Where barriers to capital flow are undesirable or futile, the trilemma boils down to a choice: between a floating exchange rate and control of monetary policy; or a fixed exchange rate and monetary bondage. Rich countries have typically chosen the former, but the countries that have adopted the euro have embraced the latter. c. A crude reading of this result is that the policy trilemma is really a dilemma: a choice between staying open to cross-border capital or having control of local financial conditions. In fact, Ms Rey's conclusion is more subtle: floating currencies do not adjust to capital flows in a way that leaves domestic monetary conditions unsullied, as the trilemma implies. So if a country is to retain its monetary-policy autonomy, it must employ additional "macroprudential" tools, such as selective capital controls or additional bank-capital requirements to curb excessive credit growth." d. "What is clear from Ms Rey's work is that the power of global capital flows means the autonomy of a country with a floating currency is far more limited than the trilemma implies. That said, a flexible exchange rate is not anything like as limiting as a fixed exchange rate. In a crisis, everything is suborned to maintaining a peg—until it breaks. A domestic interest-rate policy may be less powerful in the face of a global financial cycle that takes its cue from the Fed. But it is better than not having it at all, even if it is the economic-policy equivalent of standing on one leg."

Lawrence and Edwards (2013)

US Employment Deindustrialization ¨Insights from History and the International Experience 1. Over the long run, however, absent new product innovations, or a shift in consumer preferences, the basic forces leading to the declining share of manufacturing in overall employment are unlikely to abate. Just as rapid farm productivity growth combined with a limited demand for food has led to ever smaller shares of employment in agriculture, the combination of relatively rapid productivity growth and limited demand growth for goods will mean that more of the jobs in the future will be in services. 2. Perhaps due to R&D spending, or more easily automated processes. 3. Price and share of services in US consumption rising! 4. "The experience in other industrial countries is consistent with the conclusions we have drawn with respect to the United States. Relatively faster productivity growth in the production of manufactured goods has led to declining relative goods prices. In response, however, consumers have chosen to devote more of the money they save to the purchase of services"

Pascal

We need an international monetary system which facilitates international trade 1. TRADERS lament exchange rate volatility, but this volatility can, at times, correct for macroeconomic woes that could be much more harmful to trade 2. Volatility does, though, of course have a negative impact on trade 3. NEED FOR GREATER POLICY COHERENCE: a. Trade needs exchange rate stability b. The problem for business is one of excess volatility — i.e. when exchange rates behave in a disorderly way, and do not adjust to economic fundamentals. Part of the international trading community found in the Bretton-Woods era is a system of orderly adjustment of real exchange rates. The system, though not ideal, was maintained. But there was a system, providing for a sense of organized governance in the international monetary system. This is what we lack today. c. We need an international monetary system which supports cross-border investment and a better allocation of capital across nations and which "facilitates international trade" — as laid out in the aims of the International Monetary Fund. d. What we need is a global monetary system which inspires confidence, offers stability and monitors exchange rates more efficiently. One which provides the means through which global imbalances that may risk endangering stability can be addressed.

O'Rourke and Williamson

When did globalization begin? 1. Globalization a modern phenomenon - before it was luxury goods, was not marked by price convergence across the board. It was revolutions in transportation, declining power of monopolistic traders, and trade liberalization that gave way to globalization after the early 19th century. Also gave rise to class-based political debates

Wallach (2004)

Whose Trade Organization? 1. WTO has been horrible on the environment, undermining sovereign conservation policy while setting dangerous precedents 2. On Clean Air Act, on Dolphin Protections, on Sea Turtles 3. BUT Gattzilla vs. Flipper is delayed by US and Mexico for fear that there will be pushback against NAFTA 4. Purse-seine fishing, and the domestic drama inspired by WTO ruling in favor of MexicoWTO said method of production could not be used to differentiate products, and to prevent imports on the part of the US would thus be discriminatory 5. Turtle excluder devices WTO doesn't rule on this necessity, but posits that US INTENDED to block imports

Summers (2016)

Why Brexit is Worse for Europe than Britain." 1) Short term -- flow into the dollar and yen -- signs of alarm and banks down as much or more than 20 percent in some cases 2) Recession a risk in the UK but not a certainty 3) Potential for "populist exit contagion" on the continent. Could also raise Trump risk. 4) This is no time for austerity. Greater use of fiscal policy should be on the agenda almost everywhere and certainly with the change of government in the U.K. 5) Again, makes reference to a "responsible nationalism"

Wolf (2005)

Why Globalization Works 1. There are key differences between transactions within and without a country a. Economic -obstacles, legal and nonlegal b. Multiple jurisdictions - political difference c. VALUE - welfare of foreigners vs. welfare of residents 2. MARKETS want to be cosmopolitan, states do not 3. Unequal countries, varying degrees of integration (possible) 4. TRADE - presupposes some immobility of labor and/or capital 5. GAINS FROM TRADE— a. Comparative advantage and economies of scale b. Equivalent to increases in productivity—more of a good with the same inputs c. Promotes competition and ACTUAL productivity growth d. Diffusion of technology 6. No countries with rising living standards and LESS open to trade... a. Third set of benefits - intellectual and moral, along with democratization 7. THOUGH many resent capital investments, they are key to intertemporal shifting of consumption, risk spreading, and higher returns (though it can change underlying assumption about trade) 8. Though people resent MNCs, FDI is preferable to foreign borrowing - more long-term buy-in, can't escape at first sign of trouble 9. CLASSIC EXPLANATIONS OF LACK OF CAPITAL FLOWS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, in terms of doubts about financial and monetary stability as well 10. Concerns about labor - wages have not equalized - call for mobilization and migration 11. ***Argument against protectionism, even for infant industries - return to this!!! 12. Liberal unilateralism (bold first mover) vs. Liberal internationalism (mutual reliance) 13. MERCANTILIST LOGIC - exports the benefits, imports the cost

Altman and Haas

Why the Trans-Pacific Partnership Matters 1. TPA necessary, but passage prospects have dimmed 2. without this deal, the so-called pivot to Asia will be hollow. 3. Three myths: a. Recent deals have hurt jobs and wages and widened inequality (cite Autor) b. TPP would degrade labor and environmental standards myth as the deal includes protections drawn directly from the ILO c. Doesn't protect against currency manipulationprotecting American sovereignty and the exclusion of China 4. Benefits are many services and ag, better IP protections, greater overall prosperity, 5. Denying the deal would CONTRIBUTE to doubts about American international reliability

Frieden (2008)

Will Global Capitalism Fall Again 1. 1914 - ancient regime who glossed over the costs of globalization are case aside 2. Replaced—fascist autarky and the like, ignoring the benefits of globalization 3. THOSE who ignored the costs of globalization and the losers and tensions led societies to disaster 4. Compromise marked the postwar economy, but it they eroded with deeper integration and reemergence of outsiders 5. Need to eschew religious reliance on free market, but can't become insular 6. NEED TO CREATE AN INTEGRATED ORDER W/ stable governance 7. Need to create conditions that provide for enduring support

Trumka

Will the TPP Really Protect Workers The Trans-Pacific Partnership being negotiated between the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim nations has been characterized as the most progressive trade agreement in our history, with the strongest labor and environment provisions ever. But what is the benchmark? To date, the United States has never had a trade agreement that protects basic rights and raises wages and living standards for working people. Previous agreements have failed to ensure the integrity of the democratic process and preserve consumer and environmental protections. Comparing this pact to previous agreements sets a pretty low bar. While there have been some small improvements to the labor chapters of trade agreements over the years, the enforcement record has been mediocre. Our recommendations include, among other things, the right to bring a labor claim based on a single egregious violation (such as a mass firing or violent attack), clear rules and deadlines that would require timely action on meritorious cases, protections for migrant workers, a ban on goods produced with forced or child labor, an independent secretariat to study and review labor practices and new standards related to labor inspections and decent work. Vietnam, Mexico, Brunei and Malaysia — all TPP countries — are notorious labor and human rights violators, currently out of compliance with the standards supposedly in the TPP. There is no known plan to withhold TPP benefits until these countries comply. This raises serious doubts about whether the TPP will create a level playing field for workers

imperative

find the WTO literature review on exchange rates and international trade - stop what you're doing and do it now - go find this document NOW