EXTRA-SENSORY PERCEPTION (ESP)

Debris Monitor pt 2

-24% of the uniformed group wanted to hire debris monitor -56% if the informed group wanted to hire a debris monitor

What percentage of Americans say they believe in psychic phenomena?

-64%

Which scientist said that they 'proved' that ESP is real?

-Darly Bem -a social psychology professor at Cornell University

What are some events that Nostradamus predicted?

-Great Fire of London -Rise of Napoleon -9/11 Terrorist Attacks -the Iraq War -Hurricane Katrina

The Fire of London Fulfillment

-London's biggest fire (1666) -city burned from September 2 to 5: 9+2+3+4+5=23 (twenty three the 6's); fireballs -"antique dreams"; St. Paul's cathedral the traditional site of the temple to Diana -"same sect"; other Anglican churches burnt

The Mind Machine

-Wiseman (2002) has 28,000 people predict 4 coin tosses -museums, malls, fairs, etc. chance performance= .5^4=6.25% overall: 6.2% clairvoyants: 6.3% believers: 6.2% skeptics: 6.2%

Con Artists

-a person who cheats or tricks others by persuading them to believe something that is not true -"con" stands for "confidence" -by gaining your confidence, they gain something from you

What were some of Nostradamus' predictions?

-based on astrology, bibliomancy (choosing random verses from the Bible), and "borrowing" predictions from other sources -he made several predictions for the next 2000 years -he was quite famous amongst royalty and the upper class until his death

Bill is going to buy stock in a tech company and decides against it. Later on, the tech company ends up doing quite well. Bill exclaims "I knew it!" Why didn't he invest in the tech company?

-bc he didn't know ahead of time!

Tina has a bad feeling about her best friend's boyfriend. Later on, he ends up cheating on her friend. She says "I knew it." Why didn't she tell her friends he was cheating?

-bc she didn't know ahead of time!

Nostradamus (1503-1566)

-born Michel de Nostredame on 12/14/1503 -he was a physician that treated plague victims in Italy and France -late in life, became known for his prophetic visions

Desperate People, Desperate Solutions

-con artists often feed upon the desperate ex. psychic detectives helping find lost loved ones; psychic mediums talking to the ghosts of dead family membranes

So why do people believe in ESP?

-confirmation bias -illusory correlations

The Bottom Line

-currently, there is no compelling scientific evidence for any form of ESP -even though parapsychologists in the 1970s tried desperately to find evidence for it!

Redelmeier & Tversky (1980)

-had 18 patients with arthritis evaluate pain twice a month for 15 months -compared pain judgements of patient (and doctor) to local weather reports (barometric pressure, humidity, temperature) results: there was absolutely no correlation between weather and pain (r^2=0)

Tool #5: blame them

-if someone confronts you, blame their skepticism for your failure...

Imaginary Experiment

-imagine that I test 100 people's ability to protect coin tosses -chance= 50% question: are some people better than chance at predicting a coin toss? -imagine that I find someone who guesses 75% correct -impressed? are they psychic? .5^4= 6.25% chance -in a study of 100 people, 6 people will be able to guess 4 coin tosses in a row by chance

Telepathy

-mind-to-mind communication -a person sending thoughts to another or perceiving another's thoughts

The problem?

-other researchers cannot replicate the findings

Debris Monitor

-participants were asked whether Duluth, Minnesota should have hired a debris monitor uninformed group: only knew the facts at the time informed group: knew the facts + a flood had occurred due to debris

Conformation Bias

-people remember the events that were consistent with their hypothesis -they often selectively "forgot" the contradictory events

Precognition

-perceiving future events (such as a unexpected death in the next month) -fortune cookie is a great example! says you're going to have a great summer and if you do you say that was bc of the fortune cookie

Clairvoyance

-perception of remote events (such as sensing that someone's house it on fire -this is with the mind not other sensory organs

Tool #1: play the odds

-rely on "the luck of the draw" -confirmation bias will lead your victims to ignore your failures ex. psychic mediums; "I'm sensing the name of a relative that begins with a B..."

Why does the publication bias happen?

-scientific journals and granting agencies like exciting results; people respond to performance pressure

Replication Failures

-some findings in psychology and other sciences do not replicate -if the experiment is rerun again with the exact same parameters, it doesn't produce the same data! -what could be happening?

Why do some people claim to have ESP?

-some might actually believe that they have psychic power due to illusory correlations and confirmation bias

Bem (2011): seeing the Future

-studied "time reversal"; recalling words that have not yet been presented -reported 9 experiments with 1000 participants -small but significant time reversal effect...

Tool #2: Misdirection

-take advantage of a momentary lapses in attention; switch out objects when people aren't looking

Hindsight Bias

-the after-the-fact feeling that some event was very predictable -even though it really wasn't so predictable before hand -"hindsight is 20/20"

The Fire of London (centuries 2.51)

-the blood of the just will make complaint to London. burnt by fireballs in twenty-three sixes; the antique dame will fall from the high place, of the same sect many will be destroyed

What is extrasensory perception (ESP)?

-the controversial claim that perception can occur apart from sensory input -includes telepathy, clairvoyance, and precognition

Tool #4: optical illusions

-the visual system doesn't like to bet on accidental viewpoints

Tool #3: physics

-use clever devices and simple physics to deceive your viewers ex. bending spoons with your mind; it's a special metal alloy that reforms back to its original shape when heated

Illusory Correlations

-when people persistent in believing there is a relationship between 2 variables, even though it doesn't actually exist ex. washing the car will cause rain

Publication Bias

-when researchers only publish data that matches their favored hypothesis -they ignore data that mismatches their hypothesis

What are some common methods that con artists use?

1. play the odds 2. misdirection 3. physics 4. optical illusions 5. blame them

There are a lot of interesting ... issues exploited by con artists claiming to have ESP

CRITICAL THINKING

There is ... compelling evidence for extrasensory perception (ESP)

NO

Did Nostradamus actually predict events?

Prediction: a statement about an uncertain future event Postdiction: explaining a past event after it has happened