Foreign Policy of Major Powers midterm
Multilateralism
called the "international governance of the many"; participation in institutionalized arrangements of more than three states on specific issue areas; the arrangements codify obligations and benefits of membership and punishments for noncompliant behavior Trump seemed to be against this and Germany was worried, but still wanted to side with Trump to maintain it. Xi was in support of it The dominant operating mode for the liberal international order helps many self-interested actors achieve the benefits of cooperation by institutionalizing diffuse reciprocity for good behavior and punishment for bad behavior. Since rewards and punishments are integrated into institutional arrangements, states do not need to worry about whether other states are trustworthy. Trust in the benefits of the system (not necessarily trust in other states) is achieved over time as experience demonstrates that the institutional arrangements benefit all good actors without discrimination and compel all actors to be good partners most of the time. a way to vest the other major powers in the new order the American hegemon's decision to use multilateralism as the overarching framework for the postwar world was a distinctly American decision. The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in many ways emulates US leadership of the present order and results in a deepening of multilateralism and globalization persistent feature of China's relations with the West is Chinese appropriation of and spinning of Western ideas to reflect a better Chinese version. The BRI is a Chinese variation on the Marshall Plan to reconstruct Europe after the Second World War. The Marshall Plan combined state and private enterprise backed with US funding and military protection to rebuild Europe. This won the United States lasting allies and deep "soft power." The Chinese BRI is a larger version of the Marshall Plan in terms of financing and scope, and in the Chinese view the BRI is a better version because it does not depend on the partners' acquiescence to Chinese political values. Further, the BRI also bypasses the messiness of working with nongovernmental entities such as corporations and private banks, since it is all about state-led development. The planning and execution are ostensibly cooperative, with benefits accruing to China and its partners. Signs of discontent with Chinese order from its partners. Similar to that felt by developing countries when dealing with Western-led global institutions like World Bank or IMF. in Laos, there was fear the government wouldn't afford share of $6 billion rail line project with China. Total econ output of Laos was only $12 billion a year, and it's estimated that the railway would lose money the first 11 years. Sri Lanka owed Chinese state firms $8 billion. in order to repay in late 2017, it gave China a 99 year lease to control major port. These and other BRI projects make China's partners dependent on China in ways that threaten sovereignty, but China is also dependent on these countries and the trade that it needs to continue its rise. benefits, accrued differently, still outweigh costs, and economic interdependence continues
Transnational Actors
individuals or organizations in the international system that conduct activities across national borders
elites
individuals who exercise great influence in the policy-making process either in the role of government officials, domestic opponents, or individuals who have greater access to decision makers Sometimes compete for influence in different branches of government
Learning
involves the development of new beliefs, skills, or procedures as a result of the observation and interpretation of experience requires two elements: the lack of strongly established beliefs and some "unanticipated failures that challenge old ways of representing problems.
human rights
political, civic, and economic rights that are inherent to all human beings, regardless of sex, race, gender, sexual preference, ethnicity, nationality, religion, or any other status These types of groups and religious rights groups called for a tough US response to the Tiananmen crackdown.
regime
the central, primary decision makers within a national government Syria's ______ used chemical weapons
organizational process model
A decision-making model in which policy makers or lower-level officials rely largely on standardized responses or standard operating procedures.
anarchy
Defines the realist international system. No overarching international authority condition of the international system to which states must adapt with their foreign policies. Neorealists and liberal institutionalists agree that anarchy is a foundation of international politics, but they take us in different directions regarding the question of what states can do about anarchy.
Angela Merkel
Former Chancellor of Germany 1. The best societies (national and international) are inclusive and diverse. Governments (and all social organizations such as political parties) should encourage and facilitate inclusion and diversity. 2. Rules of governance and public policy are best when they result from a process in which all stakeholders are heard. Leaders should take into account the opinions of as many stakeholders as practical when formulating policy. 3. Government leaders should not follow ideological principles too rigidly. The best policies and rules are those based on common sense, incrementalism, and tried and proven methods. 4. Individuals in national societies and states in international society should be free to pursue their own interests, but they also must be responsible actors who are held accountable for their actions. Governments exist, in part, to establish frameworks to facilitate freedom and responsibility. Merkel stayed back, not making a clear statement on Eurozone, collected ideas from all sides, and went with the majority of stakeholders in a collective response towards Eurozone Regarding the refugee crisis, first was in support of refugees and suspended dublin procedures (sending refugees back to first EU country entered) so they moved en masse to Germany, angering countries on the path to Germany (Serbia, Austria, Hungary). After negative response from Merkel trying to share the burden, Merkel reinstituted the Dublin rule and allowed refugees just 1 year of protected status without extension to family. After 2015 Paris attacks, Merkel struck a deal with Turkey in which Turkey would stop migrant outflows in exchange for EU funding
New Right
Iran is destined to be a great power while the US is declining the hard-line conservatives represented by Ahmadinejad and the pragmatic conservatives represented by Rafsanjani Headed by Ali Khomenei, with his inner circle including Ahmadinejad, Janati, Rafsanjani, Larijani, and a few others After 09 uprisings, Ahmadinejad was rendered powerless in his last year due to Khamenei taking a more direct role in key decisions, and Ahmadinejad suffered enormous electoral losses in 2012. Velayati and Larijani's power increased. pragmatists took control. Rouhani's negotiation of the JCPOA and the lifting of sanctions helped him win a strong reelection mandate in 2017. Voters had hoped for economic relief and more progressive social policies. Khamenei's inner circle, however, still contained hard-liners, and their power was flexed when they arrested Rouhani's brother on corruption charges just two months after Rouhani's landslide reelection Other Iranian foreign policy behaviors—such as support for the Assad regime in Syria or the Houthi rebels in Yemen in a proxy war against Saudi-backed forces— can be explained by examining the tug-of-war between hard-liners and pragmatists in Khamenei's inner circle
enemy image
a belief set that portrays the opponent as inherently evil and strategically cunning with nearly unlimited capacity for causing harm US towards Soviets, Bush towards middle easterners post 9/11 may do more than cause an actor to miss signs of change or weakness in the enemy—the presence of strong enemy images may sustain international conflict over time
crisis
a circumstance in which a threat or acute problem exists that requires immediate action by decision makers
operational code
a cognitive map of an individual's philosophical/normative and operational/behavioral beliefs; indicates a leader's predisposition toward action examination of the writings and statements of a leader from which philosophical beliefs can be extracted Sadat, unlike Nasser, was Egypt first. Launched attack with Syria against Israel to reclaim Sinai peninsula, then negotiated peace agreement and peace fire unilaterally with Israel, without Syria knowing. Led to his assassination and loss of trust
integrative solution
a compromise, synthetic decision by an ultimate decision unit reflecting full discussion of different options With Khamenei's new pragmatic circle, this was more likely and it did happen. Signed in 2015. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed by Iran on one side and the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China on the other side came into effect in January 2016 upon IAEA certification.
close-mindedness
a condition characterizing an individual decision maker or a small group in which there is resistance to information and a lack of adaptation to changes in the political environment Cognitive model
open-mindedness
a condition characterizing an individual decision maker's or a small group's openness to new information and adaptability to changes in the environment Rational actor model assumes this
Security Dilemma
a cyclic situation in which actions undertaken by a state to increase its security ultimately decrease overall security because other states (mis)perceive the defensive actions to be hostile and threatening and so they respond in kind
groupthink
a distortion of small-group decision making in which the members' desires for maintaining group cohesion are prioritized over problem solving; associated with premature closure around a solution advocated by a strong group member Closed single groups that privilege group loyalty and suppress dissent are associated with the notion of __________ one that puts the maintenance of the group and the loyalty of its members to the group at the center of its purpose, rather than focusing on the problem to be solved Leader can also influence it group cohesiveness is a critical antecedent to The Trump administration's decision to enact a religion-based ban on immigration might have resulted from groupthink
Prisonner's Dilemma
a game theory scenario in which two rational actors acting in their own self-interest pursue actions that do not result in the ideal outcome for either the story of two prisoners, each being interrogated separately for an alleged crime. The interrogator tells each prisoner that if one of them confesses and the other does not, the one who confessed will go free and the one who kept silent will get a long prison term. If both confess, both will get somewhat reduced prison terms. If neither confesses, both will receive short prison terms based on lack of evidence Nuclear war illustrates the most fundamental realist problem: because no action occurs in a vacuum but instead is part of a series of interactions with other actors, actors can rarely obtain absolute security, freedom, superiority, or whatever they seek to achieve over others. Instead, actors can only hope to obtain relative security or relative freedom or relative superiority, and so forth. In the realist model, actors acknowledge this reality but still make choices that would, only under ideal circumstances, earn them the best possible result. tells us that each side recognizes that it is more rational not to initiate an attack with nuclear weapons because of the expected result, a counter nuclear attack. However, in competitive relationships as always exist in the realist world, "winning" (that is, dominating the opponent) is the best possible result and "losing" is the worst. In between winning and losing is parity with the opponent. Using the basic prisoners' dilemma setup, the rational choice of either side in a confrontation between nuclear foes is to attack the other side first. If you attack first and your opponent does nothing, you win. However, since your opponent is also a rational actor, it also will pursue a "win" and attack. Both sides attack with nuclear weapons and both sides suffer nuclear war, but they both break even with each other! The best possible solution is not possible; the best of the worst— mutual nuclear war—is both possible and rational. The immediate threat to Kim is American military assets, specifically bombers, stationed at the US base in Guam and at other bases in Asia. Kim lacks the conventional means to eliminate the bomber threat, but a small-scale nuclear attack on US bombers, say in Guam, would eliminate the most immediate security threat to North Korea and raise the stakes so high that the United States would probably not respond in any significant way. The majority of North Korean nuclear weapons and missiles would still be available for use after this first attack, and these would still threaten US cities. This continued threat should deter the United States from retaliating at all for the first attack
consensus
a general agreement; a unanimous decision single group may also be self-contained—that is, not open to outside information—and quick to reach ________
neorealism
a grand theory (and variant on realism) that proposes that power is the most important factor in international relations and that international anarchy dictates the behavior of states states are aggressive because of the dictates of anarchy
realism
a grand theory that proposes that states seek to protect and extend their own narrowly defined national interests, pursuing power and security because of the lack of international trust and government. international system is anarchic associated with rational decision making states are only distinguishable by the relative power they hold, not by their internal characteristics. Government type, history, economics, and the qualities of the individuals holding political leadership positions hold no importance in and of themselves to the analyst all leaders will act in ways consistent with the long-term, persistent national interests of the country China's material wealth and capacities have changed, giving China—under any leader—more international status and options, but persistent long-term Chinese national ambivalence toward the international order shapes the policies of all its leaders, making the general outlines of Chinese foreign policy predictable states naturally aggressive Cold war
aggressive leader
a leadership personality profile with the following traits: high nationalism, high need to control others, high need for power, high distrust in others, and low integrative complexity; expects international interactions to be on his or her own terms we find a need to manipulate and control others, little ability to consider a range of alternatives, suspiciousness of others' motives, a high interest in maintaining national identity and sovereignty, and a distinct willingness to initiate action. . . . [Such leaders] urge their governments to be suspicious of the motives of leaders of other nations. When interaction is necessary, they expect it to be on their nation's terms. Based on leadership trait analysis (LTA) system, Bush 2 admin was more likely to be aggressive. Tony Blair was also aggressive because of his team up with Bush 2, which no other leader would've done. Blair scored far above the average on his belief in his ability to control events, well below the average on cognitive complexity, and far above the average on the need for power
concilitory leader
a leadership personality profile with the following traits: low nationalism, low need to control others, low distrust of others, high need for affiliation, and high integrative complexity; such a leader is more responsive to the international environment and cooperative indicate a need to establish and maintain friendly relationships with others, an ability to consider a wide range of alternatives, little suspiciousness of others' motives, no overriding concern with the maintenance of national identity and sovereignty, and little interest in initiating action. These dynamics suggest a more participatory foreign policy. . . . [Conciliatory leaders] will probably keep attuned to what is going on in international relations, being sensitive and responsive to this environment
simple learning
a learning process that does not manifest in any real change of goals or reallocation of energy and resources toward new goals Netanyahu. Took hardline stance on Palestine then suddenly supported 2 state solution with goal of easing pressure from Obama. Didn't alter policies
complex learning
a learning process that manifests in an obvious change in goals and a subsequent allocation of energy and resources toward those new goals gradual and should be observable in significant changes in views and actions Sharon was originally hardline on Palestine, and then eventually came around to support the 2 state solution. Same with Ehud Olmert Sharon's views changed so much that he quit the Likud Party to form Kadima, a conservative party committed expressly to the two-state solution. A stroke in early 2006 disabled Sharon, ending his political career. Ziv concludes that the gradual change in Sharon's views—as demonstrated in significant policy change—made it clear that Sharon's learning on the issue of a Palestinian state was real and "complex."
state
a legal-political concept denoting a sovereign actor in the international system with a recognized territory, population, and effective government become ______ by being recognized as ______ by other ______. The government-in-exile of Tibet is recognized by India as the representative of the Tibetan people, and India agrees with the government-in-exile's goals—more or less—of reclaiming Tibet from China. However, China does not recognize the government-in-exile of Tibet as the government of anything, nor as the representative of the Tibetan people. Palestine and Kurds have some qualities but not all. Has political institutions, majority of the members of the United Nations recognize Palestine as a state, but the boundaries of Palestinian territory are contested with Israel, and some of that territory is controlled by Israel as part of its national territory Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq has some elements of "stateness": governmental institutions including a military, delineated and occupied territory, and a population. Other national governments work directly with the KRG—such as the United States—and even multinational corporations enter into contracts with it, much to the anger of the Iraqi national government.
game thoery
a mathematically based method for evaluating interactive choices that assumes that each player in the "game" (1) operates under the same assumptions and rules for interaction, (2) is aware of the payoff system, and (3) holds a clear understanding of "winning"
integrative complexity
a measure of information processing based on the simplicity to complexity of words used and reasoning expressed; higher integrative complexity is typically associated with more cooperative international behavior Examination of public utterance of leaders utterances, or statements, are scored as to whether they demonstrate simple information processing, more complicated contingency-based reasoning, or highly complex, multicausal information processing. Scholars have found that leaders who demonstrate higher levels of complexity tend to be more cooperative in their international initiatives than those demonstrating lower levels. In high situations of stress (cuban missile crisis) it decreases
Bureaucratic Politics Model
a model in which members of a decision-making group are motivated to protect the interests of the organizations they represent; decision making results from competition between the members Winning this ____________ competition can become more important than solving the problem at hand; for foreign policy making, this means that "the domestic objectives of bureaucrats may be more significant than the international objectives of governments. Can be used to explain deployment of troops in Afghanistan by Obama. "pulling and hauling" of prosurge versus antisurge advocates. The Obama surge resulted from the partial victory of the prosurge coalition—partial because this coalition wanted a larger surge than the president ultimately decided upon, but the final policy called for a surge nonetheless. During the strategy review process, the surge opponents included some administration insiders who were quite close to Obama: Vice President Joseph Biden, the chief of staff, the US ambassador to Afghanistan, and the National Security Council. The proximity of these people to the president gave them considerable bargaining advantages. The prosurge side won the competition, Marsh concludes, because this side had greater bargaining advantages. These advantages included more than the bureaucratic power they wielded. Gates, a Republican from the Bush administration, had strong support in Congress and in the public, and Clinton "was the second most powerful Democrat in the room". Still not a full victory, bc 30k troops wasn't enough Obama made the final decision, but his decision was constrained by the menu of choices presented to him by his advisers. This menu of choices was in itself the product of ___________ politics
leaders
a person, usually the head of a government, who makes policy choices affecting the international and domestic environments Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton came out in favor of attaching human rights conditions to any future granting of MFN status to China after meeting with members of Congress and leaders of prosanctions interest groups
austerity
a policy designed to reduce government debt by severely cutting government spending; intended to shock an economy into course correction and diminish the government's involvement in it Merkel and Sarkozy's policy regarding Eurozone
Constructive Engagement
a policy of long-term involvement meant to change or influence the policy and behavior of a target state through offering incentives rather than threats and punishments Policy that Bush maintained with China even through most objected and congress tried to pass sanctions through that he rejected. Maintained it for 2 years
standard operating procedures
a set of routinized policies and procedures guiding the operation of an agency or bureaucracy
Predominant leader
a single individual who has the power to make choices and stifle opposition important to know whether "a leader's orientation to foreign affairs leads him [or her] to be relatively sensitive or insensitive to information from the political environment."4 A sensitive predominant leader is likely to use diplomacy and cooperation, taking an incremental approach to action in order to stay tuned to feedback from the environment. An insensitive leader is not open to external influence, and so knowledge of his or her personality or operational code is important rule out the single predominant leader. Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit "had neither the sole authority to commit the resources of the government during any occasion for decision, except at the implementation stage, nor were his decisions irreversible by another entity within the Turkish political system.
Deterrence
a situation in which the opponent is stopped from initiating an action—such as a military attack— because of the threat of disproportionate retaliation and/or punishment North Korea currently. US won't invade it bc it has nukes. Ensures the status quo
political science
a social science discipline that studies governance systems and theories, as well as institutional and noninstitutional political behavior when they study noninstitutional political behavior (like public opinion or interest group activity), they focus on the impact of noninstitutional behavior on political institutions
Intermestic
a term for the blurring of the distinction between international and domestic politics leaders use foreign policies to promote domestic agendas, and vice versa In the 1992 US presidential election, then-president Bush attempted to convince American voters to reelect him—a domestic agenda—by pointing to his foreign policy accomplishments. Chinese government releases political prisoners from time to time (prisoners being a domestic concern) as a demonstration of its cooperative nature in order to win the support of other governments for Chinese foreign policy goals.
Tribal politics
a term used to describe politics in parts of Europe and the United States in the new millennium; a politics that is typically antiglobal, antimodern, and requires loyalty to the point of defying facts use of the word ______ suggests something antiglobal and nonmodern. The _____ requires loyalty even when the politics and policies of the tribe might actually hurt the people in it Decision to leave EU. Hurt UK's rep and economy and could cost them Scotland, as they want to stay because of the EU. Even worse when Northern Ireland got preferential treatment and got to benefit from EU. Also got Cameron to advocate for it for re-election, despite being opposed to it, and caused him to resign Tribalism: Trump displaying himself as a holy christian to appeal to christians when he actually isn't. an emotional tie that does not need any link to values, self-interest, or reason.
poliheuristic theory
a theory that proposes that decisions are made in a two-step process; first decision makers calculate political feasibility and rule out some options, and then they examine the remaining options through rational choice the rational actor and cognitive approaches are compatible and, as well, that process is important Domestic political survival is always guiding principle
multiple autonomous groups
a type of decision unit in which necessary actors are separate individuals, groups, or coalitions and where no party can force compliance on the others collection of multiple autonomous actors who must work together to form a decision. necessary actors are separate individuals, groups, or coalitions which, if some or all concur, can act for the government, but no one of which has the ability to decide and force compliance on the others; moreover, no overarching authoritative body exists in which all the necessary parties are members chief executive is one of many actors involved in the bargaining process that eventually results in a decision Deadlocks result because (by definition) no entity has the capacity to act alone on behalf of the regime Used to explain Turkish foreign policy in Cyprus. Cyprus is owned by Greece and Turkey and became independent in 1960. When Cyprus became an independent country in 1960, the United Kingdom, Turkey, and Greece signed the Treaty of Guarantee giving one or all the right to intervene should anyone threaten the independence of Cyprus. Greek Cypriots then decided they wanted enosis (to be with Greece) and pushed against Turkey, leading to UN getting involved to separate them. Greece eventually got what it wanted when shared gov was couped by Greek nationalists. 3 options. Either unilateral intervention, bilateral with UK, or no reaction. Turkish PM didn't have sole authority on this matter, due to multiple autonomous groups. No single group had the authority as use of force needed to be approved by military and senate. Ecevit preferred bilateral response but was willing to go unilateral if needed. Got support and UK rejected to help, leading to unilateral coup which failed and left troops stationed in Cyprus. National Security Council was reduced to a consultive body and the military no longer had veto power. PM and Senate now had most power Erdogan also got lopsided vote (507-19) in Senate in favor of attacking PKK on edge of Turkish and Iraqi border. Could be senate submitting to Erdogan or actual debate between the president and the senate Just bc there are multiple groups doesn't mean one won't try to dominate the other. "Presidents have dispatched forces abroad between 120 and 200 times, but Congress has only formally declared war on five occasions: the War of 1812, the Spanish-American War, the Mexican-American War and the two World Wars."50 The number of times the president has ordered US troops abroad since that 2012 report has greatly increased, yet there have been no declarations of war. Technically unconstitutional but congress is still in control and can change its mind should the president overstep. Congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which gave the president the authority to take all necessary measures to defend US forces and to assist state members of the Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty. This resolution was used as the basis for full-scale US military action in Vietnam. Congress regreted this and tried to repeal it and did in 71, but Nixon determined himself to be ultimate decision maker as commander in chief to protect US troops. Congress responded with war powers act, which Nixon vetoed but got through Whether one agrees with this or not, Congress may still provide the president with nearly unlimited authority for the use of force abroad if it so chooses. Two days after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, Congress passed the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), granting the president authority to use force against those responsible for the September 11 attacks and any "associated forces." Using the AUMF, presidents (Bush, Obama, and Trump) have authorized the use of US military force in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Yemen, and at least eight countries in Africa. Congress only flexes its muscle when it's opposite of the party of the President, and only does it for domestic gain
Democracy
a type of government in which power is exercised by the people through freely contested, open, and regularly held elections in which representatives are selected for government office; a central feature of a democracy is decentralized political authority Clinton insisted, regarding the China Tiannanmen Square incident, that "I do not want to isolate China . . . but I believe our nation has a higher purpose than to coddle dictators and stand aside from the global movement toward _________"
procedural rationality
a type of group-level rationality in which a group process is judged by the extent to which it approximates the individual rational actor model in which multiple options are identified, preferences are ranked, and actions are judged in terms of costs and benefits rational process for best policy Nasser's decision making leading up to 1967 war with Israel is an example. He was humiliated in 1956 Suez war and wanted to undo the humiliation, and saw that the best, most rational option was to escalate by blocking the straits of Tiran and ordering troops into the area, and signing a defense pact with Jordan Episode with Assad was intentional procedural, but people still weren't happy
preferential rationality
a type of group-level rationality in which the decision-making process is judged by the extent to which the decision faithfully reflects the preferences of its members extent to which the group decision faithfully reflects the preferences of its members. Displayed in 56 Suez canal situation when he faithfully reflected the preferences of Egyptians to get the Israelis out Assad situation didn't meet preferential, because Obama isn't only actor with preferences
outcome rationality
a type of group-level rationality in which the decision-making process is judged by whether the outcome serves short-term or longer-term national interests extent to which group decisions yield favorable outcomes Obama's decision with Assad is outcome rationality. US wanted limited military action in Syria, hold Assad accountable, deter chemical weapon use, and prevent future use. Goal of limited action was key. When Assad used them again, he ordered limited involvement, but didn't ask congress to convene right away. Soon after, a deal was struck and they accomplished most goals, except for holding him accountable Ended up not getting rid of all the weapons and used them again while Obama was in office, and while Trump was, and any attempts to hold Syria accountable were thwarted by Russia. Trump sent missile
international relations
an academic discipline (sometimes considered a subdiscipline of political science) that focuses on the interactions between states and nonstate actors at the international or global level Foreign policy is a subfield of _____________ _________
theory
an explanation of how things work, or how an analyst thinks something works also used to help us tell the future, or predict
grand theory
an explanation of why things are the way they are overall, or how things might be; frames how analysts or policy makers think about international politics
worldview
an individual's view of how things work on a macro level; serves as a guide to behavior
zero-sum game
an interaction in which power is finite; when one country increases its power, another country loses power Realist
nonstate actors
an international actor that is not a state or a representative of a state
belief set
an organized, relatively integrated, and persistent set of perceptions that an individual, group, or state holds about a particular universe This set of images acts as a screen, letting in information that fits the belief set and keeping out information that does not
state type
defined by measurable attributes like type of political system and non-measurable attributes like national culture and identity
War Powers Act
designed to limit the presidential use of forces abroad by putting a time limit on such use without congressional approval. The president can deploy US forces abroad into combat for sixty days, but then Congress must authorize the continued use of those forces. If Congress does not authorize the continued use of force, the president may use the troops for thirty more days, but then the troops must be withdrawn from the combat area. Nixon and every President since has argued it's unconstitutional
Midrange theories
do not claim to explain everything, just selected parts of the subject under investigation explain the past and help predict the future
parity
ending up in the same bad situation with one's opponent, even in terms of mutual punishment—is preferred over sacrifice in a realist, self-help system
system level of analysis
level of analysis that explores global issues and interactions between states state versus state, or geostrategic concerns about regional or global power tilts, or states acting through international organizations, explores bilateral (state-to-state) relations, regional issues and interactions, and global issues and multilateral interactions between states
bounded rationality
rational decision making within limits of time and information decision makers do not live in a perfect world and so do not have before them all the relevant information upon which to make the best decision. Given the imperfect nature of the available information, leaders make the best possible choice or even select the first option that satisfies the minimal requirements of a good choice
most favored nation (MFN)
refers to the extension of beneficial trade terms (usually in the form of lowered tariffs) to a country that reflect the best terms extended to third parties in the past or in the future After Bush vetoed the bill, congressional critics decided to place human rights conditions on the yearly renewal of China's most favored nation (MFN) trading status In Clinton's compromise, He attached some human rights conditions to the US-China relationship, but not on trade issues Compromise didn't last, and econ groups managed to change it "this coalition was able to change the Clinton policy and avoid future threats to link MFN status with human rights issues"
bargaining advantages
resources available to a political actor that help it influence or control policy making stem from control of implementation, control over information that enables one to define the problem and identify the available options, persuasiveness with other players (including players outside the bureaucracy), and the ability to affect other players' objectives in other games, including domestic political games.
Covert Actions
secret actions undertaken in order to influence the course of political events the Russian cyberattacks against the governments of Estonia, Georgia, Ukraine, and the United States—and election hacking in the United States— for the purposes of altering those countries' foreign policies that have a direct impact on Russian interests a coalition of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar in order to pursue two goals, one foreign and one domestic. First, the Saudi coalition wanted Qatar to realign its foreign policy away from Iran. Second, the Saudi coalition wanted Qatar to shut down Al Jazeera, a news channel that originates in Qatar and is funded by the Qatari government. Al Jazeera is both a foreign policy arm of the Qatar government and a widely watched news service, but some other Arab states see Al Jazeera as a facilitator of their own domestic instability.
ultimate decision unit
set of authorities with the ability to commit the resources of the society and, with respect to a particular problem, the authority to make a decision that cannot be readily reversed.
single group
set of individuals, all of whom are members of a single body, [who] collectively select a course of action in face-to-face interaction. British cabinet individuals in this single group must be able to "form or change their positions on a problem without outside consultation," members of the single group may be open to external influences, especially information that is relevant to the group's decision. However, the single group may also be self-contained—that is, not open to outside information—and quick to reach consensus no single group qualified as the authoritative decision unit since any decision to use the military had to be approved by the Turkish senate and agreed to by the National Security Council representing the military. Thus, the decision unit was a coalition of multiple autonomous actors.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
signed by Iran on one side and the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China on the other side came into effect in January 2016 upon IAEA certification. agreement imposed restrictions on Iran's ability to enrich uranium—extending the "breakout time" for when Iran might have working nuclear weapons—and permitted the IAEA "unprecedented" access to Iran's nuclear facilities for monitoring and verification purposes In return, Iran got relief from all sanctions imposed on it for its nuclear program. Republicans in the US Congress opposed the JCPOA, which is why Congress passed the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act in May 2015. This act required the president to recertify Iranian compliance every ninety days. US president Donald Trump also opposed the JCPOA In October 2017 and again in January 2018, Trump refused to recertify Iran's compliance. In January, Trump threatened that he would end the deal in May if Congress and the other countries involved did not write a better agreement.
Liberal international order
the American hegemonic order constructed after World War II and built on the foundations of free trade and multilateral, institutionalized problem solving; associated with the construction of numerous multilateral organizations designed to facilitate international cooperation and prevent world war; also called liberal world order Trump rejected this, and saw interdependence as threatening to US interests
soft power
the ability to persuade others to pursue common goals; also understood as the "pull" of an attractive culture and/or society Gorbachev, in allowing the Soviet union to dissolve, gained this. he believed that Soviet restraint in the face of the self-opening of Eastern and Central Europe might earn the Soviet Union more international credibility and friendship
Lobbying
the act of attempting to influence decisions made by the government foreign policies often target other countries' domestic politics. Countries engage in what we might think of as normal ________ and bargaining inside the domestic political realm of other countries Japan and the Republic of Korea (South Korea) have _______ inside the United States to garner support for their claims that Japan or Korea is the more important Asian ally of the United States. Chinese Confucius institutes
decision making
the act of choosing among available alternatives about which uncertainty exists Goal is to influence this in a way that benefits you often been imagined as a "black box." We cannot see inside the box, and have no need to, since all black boxes (countries/regimes/leaders) work the same way.
group-level rationality
the application of rational decision-making metrics to group decision making suggests three kinds of rationality: procedural, outcome, and preferential rationality
two-level game
the concept that national leaders must divide their attention between the domestic and international environments, sometimes using one arena to further agendas in the other; also called a dual or two-level game also called a nested game The Clinton administration decision makers had to consider two different arenas—domestic and international. Clinton the candidate could afford to focus primarily on the domestic environment, with very little serious attention paid to the international environment. Clinton the president—like any head of state anywhere in the world—had to focus attention on both the domestic and international environments when making and implementing policy
nuclear deterrence
the condition in which opposing nuclear weapons states refrain from using such weapons against one another because of the mutual threat of unacceptable damage Cold war. coined by Churchill as balance of terror
linkage
the direct or indirect interconnectedness of two policies, groups, ideas, and so on When Clinton worked with business leaders and human rights groups and pro democracy Chinese students on the executive order
Foreign Policy
the discrete purposeful action that results from the political level decision of an individual or group of individuals. . . . [It is] the observable artifact of a political level decision. It is not the decision, but a product of the decision. behavior of states a guide to actions taken beyond the boundaries of the state to further the goals of the state. the intentions, statements, and actions of an actor—often, but not always, a state—directed toward the external world and the response of other actors to these intentions, statements and actions
Eurozone
the group of seventeen states within the European Union that use a single currency (the euro) and agree to limit government debt and deficits to commonly set targets; not all EU members are members of the Euro-zone crisis began when the Greek government admitted that its debts doubled the Eurozone limit of 60 percent of gross domestic product, causing immediate speculation and fear that Greece would default on its debts. EU, IMF, and ECB bailed them out Crisis of sovereign debt within Eurozone that broke out after 2009 that led to frantic emergency efforts by Eurozone members and the European Council to bail out Greece, Ireland, and Portugal and reconfigure EMU rules. Merkel stated that she believed the Euro would survive the crisis, and that there should be individual responses (national banks absorb the debt), not collective, despite complaints. Merkel then met with Sarkozy in 2011 and suggested a plan that, in essence, was "members should deepen their resolve to commitments already made in a more united European framework. Greater fiscal responsibility was the theme of their plan, with more strictly delineated national responsibilities". This plan of personal responsibility was happening while the Eurozone continued to decline and investors moved their money from Spanish and Italian banks and into German banks. A second recession occurred in 2012, with Greece and Spain suffering and more calls were made for a bailout, while Merkel kept holding out and instead supporting austerity politics and helping Sarkozy get re-elected (he didn't). Finally, when the ECB head called for Eurozone-wide deposit insurance and bank regulation. Merkel responded not by denouncing Draghi and the others but by announcing that Germany would support pooling the growing Eurozone debt and favor creating a eurobond market, an idea she had dismissed the year before. Spain got out of crisis. in December 2012, Eurozone heads met and agreed to form a banking union that would have a common banking supervisor located in the ECB, a sharing of bailout costs, a common bailout resolution framework, and common deposit insurance for individual investors
Mutually Assured Destruction
the idea that because both the Americans and Soviets possessed nuclear second-strike capability (the ability to sustain a first attack and retaliate in kind), any war between the two initiated by either side would destroy both
cognitive miser
the idea that individuals are assumed to be limited cognitive managers (lazy thinkers) who rely on shortcuts to interpret and understand new information Individuals use existing beliefs not only to screen out dissonant information but also to interpret new information. The new information is "recognized" as similar to an existing belief and so is stored and remembered as the same.
cognitive consistency
the idea that the images in a belief set must be logically connected and fairly well integrated Cognitive theorists propose that when an individual holds conflicting beliefs, the individual experiences anxiety known as cognitive dissonance Bush ignored warnings of 9/11 and blamed both on a misinfo campaign by Saddam. insisted that info connecting Saddam to 9/11 existed
regime interest
the interests of a regime that are of primary importance for protection and enhancement; often used in association with autocratic governments refer to persistent, long-term values associated with the entire country and identifiable over the course of the country's history. George Kennan, the former US diplomat who famously warned about Soviet expansionism, explains that long-term national interests include ensuring the "military security" of the country, the "integrity of its political life, and the well-being of its people"
national interests
the interests of a state that are of primary importance for protection and enhancement persistent long-term Chinese national ambivalence toward the international order shapes the policies of all its leaders, making the general outlines of Chinese foreign policy predictable. "large national transformations are more often the product of historical forces than the writ of one powerful leader,"
globalization
the internationalization of culture and economics, accompanied by increased interdependence between individuals, states, and nonstate international actors. market forces seemed to drive so much foreign policy prompts some observers to suggest that the line between domestic and international politics is quickly disappearing. When the Clinton administration took human rights conditions off its China trade policy, the justification was that opening up China for trade would open up China for other influences, ultimately changing the behavior of the Chinese government in the way that human rights and democracy groups wanted. forces of _____________ would compel changes in Chinese human rights behavior, and that US policy should facilitate those forces.
misperception
the mental process in which one develops an incorrect image of others and of their intentions decision makers tend to fit incoming information into their existing theories and images. Indeed, their theories and images play a large part in determining what they notice. In other words, actors tend to perceive what they expect
public
the populace of a country; often differentiated into the mass public and the attentive public; distinct from the elite China has funded many Confucius Institutes across the United States to highlight the soft side of China and gain favorable support for a pro-China foreign policy
negotiations
the process through which international actors interact with and engage one another in order to achieve common objectives
subset solution
the result of decision making within an ultimate unit; reflects the preferences of a minority of the group
decisional conflict
the situation in which opposing tendencies within an individual interfere with what realists would call "rational" decision making Young member knows older ones are wrong, but wants to fit in, so they say nothing Also happened in Johnson's inner circle for Vietnam war
dominant solution
the solution advocated by the leader of the ultimate decision making unit and agreed upon by the members of the unit
escalation-de-escalation strategy
the strategy of provoking an opponent until there is a countermove, such as a warning from the opponent, at which point a de-escalation is ordered Nasser assumed Israel didn't want war, so it would escalate, wait for a lack of response, approach a redline, and de-escalate. Supremely rational. Didn't work and led to 6 day war because they blocked straits of Tiran and lost territory, as well as Jordan and Syria (West Bank, Jerusalem) and Nasser resigned
cognition
the study of the mental process or faculty of knowing; the study of how beliefs and personality influence policy making assumes a complex, and realistic, psychology about human reasoning and decision-making. It does not assume individual awareness, open-mindedness, and adaptability relative to an "objective" environment, but assumes individuals are likely to view their environment differently and operate within their own "psychological environment."13
leadership
the top decision makers in a national government; regime In 1950, China sent troops into Tibet and set up a political and military administration there. The __________ of the Tibetan government and of Tibetan Buddhism was the teenage Dalai Lama. Panchen Lama was supposed to succeed Dalai Lama, who would then chose a Dalai Lama and so on, and the Dalai Lama and Tibetans fled to India. When he chose the Panchen Lama in Tibet, him and his family disappeared, and they chose another boy.
terrorism
the use or threatened use of violence against noncombatants for the purpose of intimidating governments and societies in pursuit of political and/or social objectives Not one of the threats Trump saw, instead saw trade and interdependence as threats
Defensive Neorealism
the variant on neo-realism that proposes that states are satisfied with the status quo and are inclined only to respond to materialized threats to power and security worry about actual threats and can be content with the status quo in the absence of realized threats. GW Bush started like this. The pre-September 11 Bush 2 administration appeared to be following a stay-at-home and go-it-alone strategy.
Offensive Neorealism
the variant on neo-realism that proposes that states must always be looking for opportunities to gain power and must remain vigilant about potential threats After 9/11, Bush adopted a "you're with us or you're with the terrorists" or a "my way or the highway" policy of primacy or a global dominance grand strategy based on straightforward offensive neorealism. Trump admin used this. This policy involved walking away from collective efforts to address international problems, such as the Paris Climate Treaty and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement between the United States, Iran, Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China. The 2017 NSS even declared China to be a serious threat to US interests. In response to the 2017 NSS, the Chinese government admonished the Trump administration to "stop deliberately distorting China's strategic intentions and abandon a Cold War mentality. . . . Otherwise it will injure others and damage itself."
levels of analysis
tools, or heuristic devices, for gaining different views of a subject like different lenses on a camera that can give us different views of our subject. At each level of analysis, we gain a particular perspective on or understanding of our subject. Our understanding may be quite thorough for that level but will necessarily exclude information that can only be attained using one of the other levels of analysis. individual: a focus on individual decision makers, how they make decisions, what perceptions and misperceptions they hold, and the ways key decision makers interact in small top-level groups. -might want to study Bill Clinton the decision maker. Clinton maintained the Bush policy of constructive engagement with China. This might suggest that the person sitting in the presidency from one administration to the next does not matter, and so we might use the rational decision-making model and the idea of persistent national interests to understand US policy toward China -maybe Clinton's lack of previous national-level experience left him open to formulating a different view of China once he entered the White House. With this hypothesis, we might investigate his change in beliefs using models proposed by cognitive scholars. Maybe his change in beliefs happened because he had key policy advisors whose opinions shaped his, or maybe we could study the small-group dynamics that gave the economics-focused cabinet members greater influence over Clinton's decision making than the human rights groups Domestic: At this level, we examine those societal (historical, cultural, religious, economic) and governmental (type of government, division of powers, policy-making rules) factors that contribute to the making of foreign policy in a particular state. -interested in how domestic interest groups and Congress shaped the Clinton policy. We could explore how groups on the pro- human rights and protrade sides varied in their lobbying efforts. We could explore the "turf" problems, or competition between the executive and legislative branches, in defining US China policy, maybe by thinking about competition between elites in different branches of government. -We could ask whether the US military, worried about potential Chinese military threats, lobbied the White House and Congress for a certain stand against the Chinese. We could investigate the rise and fall of the fortunes of the pro-human rights groups and the rise of the protrade groups, charting their different strategies, arguments, and overall effectiveness in shaping media coverage of and public opinion on China and human rights international: we also consider the role played by regional and international organizations and by nonstate actors such as transnational nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that have a direct influence on the foreign policies of states. state versus state, or geostrategic concerns about regional or global power tilts, or states acting through international organizations. -Maybe we are curious about whether changes in the overall balance of power between countries in the Asia-Pacific region were influential in shaping a US policy of accommodation toward China. We might wonder about whether policy makers decided that China might need to be enticed into being a "good international citizen" rather than coerced into such a role. Maybe US policy makers thought issues of human rights could be addressed better through multilateral channels like the United Nations
state level of analysis
two broad categories of factors examined: governmental and societal Governmental factors include the type of political system and its constitutional framework, the type of regime that sits atop the government, how decisions are made in different parts of the government from the highest levels to the basic bureaucratic level, the division of powers and authority between government institutions, bureaucratic infighting among government agencies, and the size and institutionalization of bureaucracies Societal factors include the type of economic system; the history of the people(s) in the country; the ethnic, racial, and religious mix of the people; the number and activities of interest groups and political parties; and the role of the media in setting the public agenda Not exclusive, study state-society relations, the lobbying of government officeholders by interest groups, and the mobilization of citizens by national leaders and opposition elites through appeals to group identities.
Sovereignty
ultimate decision-making and decision-enforcing authority within a territory. In the international system, states and only states are sovereign, and they notionally answer to no higher authority China has __________ over the region of Tibet
coercive diplomacy
using the threat of force to achieve a desired outcome Assad situation is an example of this. Obama used this
rational actor model
view of foreign policy decision-making that assumes policy-makers have a shared sense of the national interest, which they seek to attain via a rational process of finding the most efficient means to achieve those ends
uni-lateral
when a state acts alone in its pursuit of its own narrowly defined foreign policy goals
rational decision making
when an actor selects a course of action that maximizes its values, after considering various options, ranking preferences, and weighing the relative costs and benefits; feedback from the environment after earlier action is also calculated into the options Obama had succeeded in getting Assad to agree to the international inspection and removal of his chemical weapons stocks without having to fire a shot or launch a cruise missile. Russia, a steadfast defender of the Assad regime, negotiated the agreement and assisted in its implementation, against its earlier insistence that there was no truth to the claims that chemical weapons had been used. president had undermined American resolve experts and everyday people really do not like this associated with realist worldview
deadlocked solution
when members of an ultimate decision-making unit cannot agree and so are unable to make a decision or formulate a policy Where top Iranian council reached regarding decision on nuclear weapons
