GOVT 434 Democracy Ch 11-25
What happens when political parties fail?
- Civil Unrest - Military Coups - Relapse into some form of authoritarianism
cons of the electoral college
- Discrepancy between popular mandate may not be shown - Not good for minorities - People may be discouraged to vote bc they know their state will choose one party over the other (california vs south or midwest)
Consensus and Polarization
- East Asian states are consensus driven where harmony and national unity are emphasized. - As a result the media becomes less adversarial and more deferential.
Majoritarian democracies
- Majoritarian electoral systems, two party systems, single party candidates, dominant executive and pluralist interest Intermediation. - Goal to give voice to majority of population
Single Transferable Vote
A proportional voting system designed to achieve or closely approach proportional representation through voters ranking candidates in multi-seat organizations or constituencies. ex, ireland
Elite continuity ensures that democratic transitions are relatively smooth with low levels of violence. Why?
As part of the negotiations, the existing elites say they want to be in power and have a role. Elites change completely from the old regime and reinvent themselves as democrats ex. post-Franco Spain, Pinochet regime of Chile
Robust democratizers
Countries where democracy has struck deep roots ex. Latin America:chile, uruguay, argentina, brazil Eastern Europe: Poland Czech republic, Slovenia Africa: S.Africa Asia: S.Korea, Taiwan
(Duverger) A proportional representation will produce what kind of system according to duverger's law?
Multi party system
civil society
Refers to associations created by private citizens for different causes
What accounts for the type of ideology that political parties represent?
Shaped by social events big or small (war, industrial rev, economic situation) then they deploy this ideology to attract supporters
Multiparty system countries
Spain, Italy, France, Germany
Greece's democratic transition
The military high command dismissed the leader of the Colonel's regime and handed over power to a civilian leader Konstantin Karamanlis. Karamanlis took a series of steps to stabilize the situation
Party continuity
The political party/ies that were in power under the autocratic system continue in the new democratic system (although the party leadership may be discredited and ousted). The political party reinvents itself as one of the political parties in the new democratic system and contests elections. They reinvent themselves to become a part of the new democratic ex. Ethiopia, communist parties of eastern Europe
Organization of Government
The positions in the executive branch of the government are filled by the party that wins the elections.
interest aggregation
Transformation of societal demands into policy Initiatives. ex. abortion, religious demands
(Duverger) A majoritarian or a plurality system tends to produce what kind of party system according to duvereger's laws?
Two party system - A third party will not have a big chance of winning if the other two are large parties
(Post-Communist Central and Eastern Europe) Emerging democracies
described as work in progress, without the capacity to hold free and fair elections. Lack of historical experience with democracy and absence of national cohesion are stumbling blocks. Kosovo, Macedonia, Bosnia Herzegovina fall in this group.
Venezuela (hint: economic slump led to Hugo Chavez)
- A two party (AD and COPEI) system maintained stability but did not allow a full and effective democracy. - An economic slump led to the disenchantment with the two parties and paved the way for the rise of Hugo Chavez.
(Sub-Saharan Africa) Political Gains
- Electoral Democracies have been on the rise- in the 1980s multi party elections were allowed in 6 out of 47 countries; by 1993 around 43 countries had introduced multi party elections. - Number of coup d'etats have declined drastically from 5 a year to 5 between 1993-2007. African states are learning the significance of term limits and peaceful transfer of power. The African Union has played a role in pushing for term limits and delegitimizing coups.
Establishment of definite patterns of partisan competition
- In new or emerging democracies, multiple parties may emerge but eventually few parties survive. - These party systems achieve a definite structure of party competition and some degree of stabilization.
Liberalization (stage 2 of democratic transition)
- Occurs when the action or actions of specific individuals often opens the floor doors and leads to open mobilization. - Characterized by open protests and mass demonstrations.
Legitimation (parties' role)
- Parties play a pivotal role in legitimizing the existing set of institutions. If political parties question the legitimacy of the existing institutions, it can generate unrest and turmoil. - Legitimation can be exclusive narrowly supported or inclusive broadly supported. Ex. israel-palestine conflict
Anchoring
- Political parties anchor the system by hooking and binding the society to the government. - The anchoring function is provided through territorial and functional representation.
Portugal's democratic transition (hint: coup)
- Portugal's transition was achieved through a series of pacts with the civilians and political parties. - 1974 was when coup occurred and it took a long time for Portugal to emerge as a dem in 1989
Mexico (signing of NAFTA)
- The PRI dominated the Mexican political system from 1910 onwards, although opposition parties were allowed to exist, it was not a full fledge democracy. - The signing of the NAFTA and the end of the Cold War created pressures that ended the domination of the PRI in 2000, when Vicente Fox (PAN) became President.
Spain's democratic transition (hint: face to face negotiations - constitution)
- The political parties engaged in face to face negotiations, agreed to tactical demobilization, deliberated behind closed doors and showed mutual respect. - It produced a remarkable degree of consensus, resulting in a smooth democratic transition and adoption of a constitution in 1978. - Spain decided to postpone economic reforms until after the democratic consolidation.
Elite and Party Discontinuity
-Neither the party nor the elite survives democratic transition. -Huge societal shifts or upheavals or wars leads to this type of change. ex. Germany (nazi party banned, Japan, Italy (to extent)
Classification of Political Parties Based on Ideology
1. Conservative: Likud, SVP, Pakistan Muslim league, BJP 2.Liberal: Liberal alternative (france), Liberal (canada and UK) 3.Social Democrats and Socialists: SDP, Socialist Party (France), MAS (bolivia) 4.Ethnic and Regional: Sinn Fein, Bloc Quebecois, Scottish National Party Kurdish Parties (Iraq) 5.Religious Parties: Muslim Brotherhood 6.Radical Right: AFD, National Front, Freedom Party of Austria 7.Radical Left (Marxist, leninist parties): CPI (LM), Cuba, Venezuela 8.Environmental Parties: Green party
(Sub-Saharan Africa) Politcal weaknesses
1. Entrenched Rule of the President - Presidents who overstay their term 2. Electoral violence elections 3. civil war (DRC and CAR) 4. Failed state - Somalia 5. African states have instituted vertical accountability (elections) but are yet to institute horizontal accountability (judiciary as the independent branch of government).
Explanatory factors of transition in sub saharan Africa
1. International influences 2. economic condition 3. Political culture and society 4. Political actors
Why did the Arab Spring fail?
1. Monarchism 2. Oil Wealth 3. Role of the Military 4. The Sectarian Card 5. Role of foreign actors
Long Term Structural Factors Hindering Democratization in MENA
1. Political culture and society - the political culture in the Middle East has been labeled as one of 'political quietism'. In modern times, both Islamist and secular groups have challenged the idea of quietism and it indicates that Muslims are divided on such issues. Civil society groups have been either weak, ineffective or created and controlled by the state itself. There are sharp ideological conflicts between secular and Islamist groups. 2. Role of political Islam 3. The executives in the region have remained all powerful 4. The prolonged civil conflicts in the region (Yemen, Syria) have created large scale humanitarian crises. Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two main regional powers are controlled by entrenched autocratic regimes.
5 Stages of the Democratic Process
1. Resistance 2. Liberalization 3. Transition 4. Consolidation 5. Expansion to post representative democracy
(East Asia) Two contextual factors which shaped the political trajectories
1. The rapid socioeconomic growth and modernization of the region under authoritarian regimes 2. The influence of core Confucian values that emphasized family and community over individuals, discipline and hierarchy over freedom and equality and consensus and harmony over diversity and conflict. The Confucian values have influenced the political style of autocrats and the leaders of the new democratic regime.
Threats to Democracy (5)
1. mass protests 2. Insurgents 3. interference by foreign powers 4. power seeking armed forces 5. a despotic chief executive (most dangerous)
Ways of citizen participation in Democracy (4)
1. voting 2. campaigning 3. communal participation 4. person to person
What are Sartori's laws?
1.When there are entrenched minorities that are territorially based, a majoritarian system will not produce a two party system at the national level. - People likely to vote for a party that represents their own ethnic identity 2.There are thresholds to be met in a PR system. The less proportional the system is, the fewer the number of parties. - The more proportion, the greater number of parties who get represented 3. In a double ballot system anti system parties are not successful electorally. Anti system parties are the rebels who do not agree with majority Why aren't they successful? Bc they won't get enough votes
Consociational Democracy
A form of government that guarantees representation to the different ethnic or religious groups within the country ex. Bosnia - (3 presidents and speakers of house representing their ethnic groups, presidents serve 8 months each)
Political party definition
A group of individuals united by a common political ideology who aim to control the government by winning elections.
Zimbabwe (transition)
A war of national liberation waged by guerillas against the white minority government led to a negotiated settlement and the election of Robert Mugabe as the country's first elected leader. However, over the years Zimbabwe became a repressive one party state until international pressure forced an unity government between ZANU (PF) and MDC. Robert Mugabe was ousted from power in 2017 and Emerson Mnangagwa became the next President. - Pre transition: led by white minority group - Post transition, the political condition started to deteriorate under Mugabe - He introduced a law which took away farmland from white farmers - This was a bad economic move and lead to hyperinflation
What are advantages/disadvantages of protracted (longer) transition?
Advantages: - Can be more specialized for the country as in the transition can be more compatible with the culture/society - There is time to build civil society institutions Disadvantages: - Longer process - Enemies can stage a coup or comeback - Corruption. - Portugal could introduce market oriented reform arguing that the European community mandated it.
Alternative voting
Allowed voters to rank candidates on the ballot in order of preference ex. hong kong
Chile
Augusto Pinochet backed by the military seized power ousting the democratically elected President Salvador Allende. The Pinochet regime was highly repressive and Pinochet lost a referendum/elections that he called in 1988 expecting to win.
Bonding groups
Based on primary interests and affiliations ex. ethnicity, religion, race
Bridging groups
Based on secondary interests and affiliations ex. professional and recreational groups
(Sub-Saharan Africa) Role of China
Benefactor or Exploitator? China uses and invests in africa for its natural resources and energy. They are also building infrastructure
Two party system countries
Canada - Liberal and conservative US/UK - conservative and labor Israel - likud and labor Australia - Liberal and labor
(Duverger) Second ballot majority method
Candidates winning an absolute majority in the first round get elected (50%). If this is not the case a second round is held between the two candidates who get the highest number of votes. ex. french elections, Iran's parliament
Which countries have a single party system
China, North Korea, Cuba, Vietnam Japan, Mexico - PRI up until 1999, Russia - Putin's Russia (United Russia party), India Congress party (50-70s), Indonesia Golcar party (until early 90s)
Authoritarian regimes and civil society
Civil society groups are weak or nonexistent, patronized by state
(Sub saharan Africa) Security challenges
Combined effect of growing populations pressures and desertification in the Sahel will heighten land and resource tensions in already fragile communities, making them more susceptible to militia violence and extremism. Megacities with expanding slums (Lagos, Johannesburg) are likely to experience an increase in violent protests that could be either social, political, or both. Threats persist from groups such as Boko Haram (Nigeria). Al Shabab(Somalia and Kenya) and AQ.
Consensus democracies
Consensus democracy is the application of decision-making to the process of legislation in a democracy. - Proportional Representation system - Multi party systems - Large cabinets - A balance of power between government and parliament - Corporatist interest intermediation.
Social Capital
Democratic and civic habits of discussion, compromise, and respect for differences, which grow out of participation in voluntary organizations.
Elite Continuity
During the transition the regime falls but the elite of the previous regime continue to play a political role in the new democratic political set up. The elites have to adjust to the democratic politics and reinvent themselves as supporters of democracy.
Tenuous democratizers
Electoral democracies where civil and political liberties remain weak ex. Latin America: mexico, columbia, peru Eastern Europe: Hungary, Ukraine Africa: Kenya, Ethiopia (still improving) Asia: Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia
Aggregation
Essentially a large group or collection of people - Votes wont get wasted and representation is available widely to the voter population
(Post Soviet Eurasia) Consolidated Democracies
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have emerged as consolidated democracies. Previous experience with democracy ( a republic before Soviet takeover) and a strong sense of nationhood helped democratic consolidation in Estonia. Lithuania's path to democracy was helped by the EU. Latvia was hit by an economic crisis in 2008 but maintained its commitment to democratic principles and became a member of the EU. he process by which a new democracy matures, in a way that it becomes unlikely to revert to authoritarianism without an external shock, and is regarded as the only available system of government within a country.
(MENA) Traditional monarchies
Ex. Saudi Arabia and Qatar
The sectarian card
Faced with popular uprisings some autocratic regimes played the sectarian card. The minority Sunni government faced with democratic protests described the opposition (Shia majority) as acting on behalf of Iran. In Syria the democratic uprising was crushed by President Assad by transforming it into a sectarian conflict that plunged the country into a civil war. In Iraq the majoritarian Shia government marginalized the Sunnis and the Kurds.
Role of foreign actors
For years the Bahraini regime has complemented its security forces from Pakistan, Jordan and Yemen and made significant arms purchases. During the uprising the state's powerful coercive apparatus was supported by military intervention led by Saudi Arabia, which aimed to secure the regime. Bahrain was able to crush the uprising. The United States initially remained on the sidelines, describing the autocratic regimes (Egypt) as stable but then withdrew support from the Mubarak regime once the scale of mass opposition became apparent. However, in Bahrain, the US refused to condemn the brutal crackdown on the democratic opposition by the government. Thus in the immediate aftermath the US policy was inconsistent. President Assad of Syria sought Russia's help to fight the groups opposed to his regime. Turkey's policy has been motivated by its goal to keep the Kurds uniting and creating an independent Kurdish state.
(Post Soviet Eurasia) Electoral Democracies
Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. With the exception Moldova, the rest of the states experienced democratic revolutions. The Rose Revolution (Georgia), Orange Revolution and the Euromaidan Revolution (Ukraine) and the Tulip Revolution (Kyrgyzstan). Georgia and Ukraine face internal strife because they are seen as caught between Russia and the West. type of representative democracy based on election, on electoral vote, as modern occidental or liberal democracies.
Electoral Stabilization
In new democracies there is a high level of electoral volatility. Political parties help to stabilize electoral politics.
Oil wealth
In oil wealthy regimes, the financial resources accrued from oil create barriers to escalation by raising the costs of participation for protesters. Governments can rely on their resources to offer citizens financial incentives that help pacify them and thereby reduce the likelihood of an uprising. Several Arab regimes attempted to use this tactic as unrest swept across the region, by increasing public salaries and subsidies on staple goods. The resources available to oil wealthy regimes, however were typically substantial enough to matter. Saudi Arabia rolled out a huge package of incentives aimed at the youth. The only oil rich countries to witness upheavals were Libya and Bahrain. The subsidies to the population provided by the regime have not been even handed; while some groups had favored access others did not.
Role of Military
In only two countries - Egypt and Tunisia- did popular protests peacefully sweep leaders out of power. In other states that experienced uprisings- namely Bahrain, Libya, Syria and Yemen- at least parts of the military stood by the regime and helped repress the opposition. Among the regimes that experienced uprisings only two Egypt and Tunisia did not possess militaries linked to the dictator by some form of group preference. In both countries, the military refused to repress mass protests. On the other hand, militaries in Bahrain, Libya, Syria and Yemen have historically been connected to ruling regimes by sectarian, tribal, familial and /or ethnic ties. Ethnic ties proved crucial in ensuring these regimes retained a core of loyal military supporters willing to violently repress protests.
(Post-Communist Central and Eastern Europe Union) The third stage of transition
Involved the creation of democracies between 1989-1991. States had to adopt new constitutional frameworks, multi party systems and embrace a broad range of democratic freedoms. This effort led the countries in the region down different pathways.
(Post-Communist Central and Eastern Europe Union) The first stage of the transformation
It can be traced back to the failed reforms and decline of the communist regimes in Eastern Europe. 1. GDR (1953) 2. Hungarian Uprising (1956) Bloody, leader was killed. Marco had to mobilize the warsaw pact to crush this uprising 3. Prague Spring - Czechoslovakia(1968) Warsaw pact unleashed in Czechoslovakia and uprising was crushed 4. Solidarnosc led the challenge in Poland (1980) Led by a port worker. This union wanted to forge an independent. The Solidarity movement could not be crushed. This was a workers movement challenging a working state which claimed to uphold the rights of a working-class, however, that was not the case. The revolts were crushed but were followed by political and economic reforms that allowed small scale private ownership.
(Media) Internal Diversity Model
Media outlets present the news in a neutral fashion and stay away from interpreting the news for the people.
(Media) External Diversity Model
Media outlets take defined position on issues, promoting a particular cause or ideology and interpret the news for the people.
(Sub-Saharan Africa) Neopatrimonialism
Neo-patrimonial rule in which leaders co-opted the formal institutions of the state to serve the personal interests of the leaders emerged. The long term rule of the big boss- the big chief- the big man became the norm for many states in Africa. -Revolves around single person who sits at the top and is the most powerful individual. - Everyone has to pledge their loyalty to this leader. - Patron-client relationship - Holds power for a very long time, hard to replace
Monarchism
Of the region's eight monarchies only Bahrain experienced a substantial uprising. In these types of governments, the king sits outside the field of contestation. Legislative institutions are often composed of a wide range of factions that balance against each other and compete in elections. This arrangement increases the credibility of reforms offered by the monarch since he can cede meaningful powers without sacrificing his position and disincentivizes the opposition from making demands for radical change. This dynamic was apparent in both Morocco and Jordan, where significant protest movements never developed coherent enough demands to threaten the regime.
(Duverger) A double ballot and a run off system will lead to....?
Parties allying with each other
Stabilization of Party Leadership
Parties recruit party leaders and offer concrete options to the electorate.
Vote structuring
Political parties appeal to different groups in society to build their support base.
Leadership Recruitment
Political parties offer the platform to individuals to assume leadership position through a competitive intraparty process.
Bureaucratic Authoritarianism
Regimes are those "governed by a coalition of military officers and technocrats who act pragmatically (rather than ideologically) ex. Brazil, Argentina, Chile
(Duverger) majoritarian or a plurality system method
Requires the candidate to win 50 plus percent of votes to be elected in a single member district. Produces stable governments. ex US Advantages: govt more stable, people have incentive to vote. More efficient Cons: votes can be wasted bc not everyone wants those 2 parties
(Post Soviet Eurasia) Electoral Autocracies
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. Constitutions were adopted and elections take place but lack validity. Characterized by long term rule of the President. These states are close allies of Russia.
(Duverger) Proportional representation method
System focuses on inclusion of minority voices. Seats in a constituency are divided according to the number of votes cast for the party List. ex uk labor prty . Advantages: represents all types of groups Cons; multiple parties often form a coalition govt which doesn't last long
International context of Latin America
The US was the most influential external actor and had backed authoritarian regimes throughout Latin America. The US began to change its stance towards the authoritarian regimes as the Cold War wound up and the US Congress became concerned about human rights abuses.
(Sub-Saharan Africa) Economy
The continent's economies are growing well, higher than the global average. The 2020 African Economic Outlook projected a steady rise in growth from 3.4% in 2019 to 3.9% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2021. Sub Saharan African states have made considerable strides in meeting UN's Millenium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals. Weaknesses persist since many countries continue to export primary products, lack a diversified economic base and some of the poorest countries (Burundi per capita GNP 271.8, CAR 475 and Eritrea 811 accd to 2018 WB data) in the world are located here.
Founding Election
The first democratic election in many years, marking the completion of a transition to democracy. Has very high voter turnouts
Policy Formation
The goal of the party is to push its legislative agenda according to its ideological leanings.
Argentina (Hint: Defeat of military led to switch of presidents)
The military came to power in 1976 ousting the Presidency of Isabel Peron. The defeat of the military junta in the Falklands War in 1982 led to its ouster and the electoral victory of Raul Alfonsin.
Constituency Pooling
The successful candidate has to win a majority at the national level but must also get a certain amount of support from a minimum number of regions. ex. Nigeria, Kenya and Indonesia.
(Post-Communist Central and Eastern Europe) Consolidated democracies
This type of dem has to be accepting of a dem culture These countries experienced a smooth transition. They were already familiar with democracy Exception of Poland and Hungary which have suffered significant democratic backslide, they have both moved towards illiberalism. Czech Republic and Slovenia. Embraced democracy rapidly and evolved into stable democracies. Both countries had been democracies in the past and knew how to transform themselves from autocratic to democratic rule. The experience of Slovakia and Croatia was much slower since both countries had to deal with attempts at autocratization by their respective Presidents. Both countries achieved full status between 2006-2012.
Failed democratizers
Those that either failed to transition to democracy or turned increasingly authoritarian after an initial onset of democracy. ex. Arab spring countries: Bahrain, libya, egypt Eastern europe: Russia, Belerus, all the -istans
(Post-Communist Central and Eastern Europe Union) The second stage of the transition
Took place between 1989-1991. Mikhail Gorbachev had initiated ambitious political and economic reform in the USSR in the form of perestroika and glasnost. Perestroika meant restructure of the economy He also stated that the Warsaw Pact was not going to intervene in Eastern European states which took away the military protection from the communist elites in these countries and hastened the downfall of the regimes. In most instances the transition was peaceful and non violent. The exceptions were Romania and Yugoslavia which plunged into a civil war. Romanian dictator and his wife were hanged East Germany - first country to break away from the communist lock
Integration and Mobilization
Urges supporters to vote
Authoritarian voting turnouts
Usually high turnouts (around 97%)
Democratic voting turnouts
Usually moderate
(Post Soviet Eurasia) Full Autocracies
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Long term rule of chief executives and their successor. Cult of personality was part of the political system.
Examples of a free media playing the role of a 'watchdog' holding those in power accountable.
Watergate. Washington post, pentagon paper, panama papers (offshore accounts that politicians were using to hide their assets), abu gharaib
(MENA) Parliamentary republics
Within this group there are entrenched authoritarian regimes and democracies - (Authoritarian) Egypt, North Africa - (democracies) Israel and Tunisia
South Africa (transition)
apartheid regime based on racial segregation between white and blacks was in place which denied blacks any role in the government. Negotiations between President de Klerk and Nelson Mandela paved the way for the post apartheid transition. First democratic elections were held in 1994. - Pre- transitiion: Very segregated, apartheid, Mandela arrested - Mandela and Pres make agreement
(MENA) Theocracy
ex. Iran
(MENA) Constitutional Monarchies
ex. Jordan, Morocco
(MENA) Failed States
ex. Libya, Yemen
(Post-Communist Central and Eastern Europe) electoral democracies
meet institutional prerequisites but lack the deeply embedded culture of consolidated democracies. Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia and Albania fall in this group. Hungary is a democratic back slider while Serbia and Albania took a long time to reach the threshold of electoral democracies. Hungary: Strong right-wing nationalist movements due to the influx of immigrants. Orban has used strong negative language towards immigrants.Has transformed into majoritarian democracy . whatever the pres does is backed by the majority In Poland, the Law and Justice party has also taken measures to consolidate power, and essentially removed the impartiality of the courts. This endangered the separation of powers to push through more radical policy.
Nigeria (transition) (Hint: death of a general)
under military rule from 1983-1999. The death of Gen Sani Abacha provided the opening for a phased democratic transition. Pres Olusegun Obasanjo was elected as the country's first president.
Ghana (transition) (Hint: IMF loan - liberalization)
under the control of Flight Lieutenant Jerry Rawlings who brought in socialism and shut private investment. A loan from the IMF was followed by political liberalization in early 1990. But the first two elections were boycotted by the opposition parties. The 1996 elections saw participation by the opposition parties; the NDC led by Rawlings won again but with a reduced majority. - Pre transition: Socialism
