International Arbitrage and Interest Rate Parity Chapter 7

Changes in Forward Premiums. Assume that the forward rate premium of the euro was higher last month than it is today. What does this imply about interest rate differentials between the United States and Europe today compared to those last month?

The interest rate differential is smaller now than it was last month.

Covered Interest Arbitrage. Assume the following information: Quoted Price Spot rate of Canadian dollar $.80 90 day forward rate of Canadian dollar $.79 90 day Canadian interest rate 4% 90 day U.S. interest rate 2.5% Given this information, what would be the yield (percentage return) to a U.S. investor who used covered interest arbitrage? (Assume the investor invests $1,000,000.) What market forces would occur to eliminate any further possibilities of covered interest arbitrage?

$1,000,000/$.80 = C$1,250,000 × (1.04) = C$1,300,000 × $.79 = $1,027,000 Yield = ($1,027,000 - $1,000,000)/$1,000,000 = 2.7%, which exceeds the yield in the U.S. over the 90 day period. The Canadian dollar's spot rate should rise, and its forward rate should fall; in addition, the Canadian interest rate may fall and the U.S. interest rate may rise.

Interest Rate Parity. Consider investors who invest in either U.S. or British one year Treasury bills. Assume zero transaction costs and no taxes. a. If interest rate parity exists, then the return for U.S. investors who use covered interest arbitrage will be the same as the return for U.S. investors who invest in U.S. Treasury bills. Is this statement true or false? If false, correct the statement b. If interest rate parity exists, then the return for British investors who use covered interest arbitrage will be the same as the return for British investors who invest in British Treasury bills. Is this statement true or false? If false, correct the statement.

Both answers are true

Interest Rate Parity. If the relationship that is specified by interest rate parity does not exist at any period but does exist on average, then covered interest arbitrage should not be considered by U.S. firms. Do you agree or disagree with this statement? Explain.

Disagree. If at any point in time, interest rate parity does not exist, covered interest arbitrage could earn excess returns (unless transactions costs, tax differences, etc., offset the excess returns).

Covered Interest Arbitrage. Explain the concept of covered interest arbitrage and the scenario necessary for it to be plausible.?

Covered interest arbitrage involves the short term investment in a foreign currency that is covered by a forward contract to sell that currency when the investment matures. Covered interest arbitrage is plausible when the forward premium does not reflect the interest rate differential between two countries specified by the interest rate parity formula. If transactions costs or other considerations are involved, the excess profit from covered interest arbitrage must more than offset these other considerations for covered interest arbitrage to be plausible.

Limitations of Covered Interest Arbitrage. Assume that the one-year U.S. interest rate is 11 percent, while the one-year interest rate in Malaysia is 40 percent. Assume that a U.S. bank is willing to purchase the currency of that country from you one year from now at a discount of 13 percent. Would covered interest arbitrage be worth considering? Is there any reason why you should not attempt covered interest arbitrage in this situation? (Ignore tax effects.)

Covered interest arbitrage would be worth considering since the return would be 21.8 percent, which is much higher than the U.S. interest rate. Assuming a $1,000,000 initial investment, $1,000,000 × (1.40) × .87 = $1,218,000 Yield = ($1,218,000 - $1,000,000)/$1,000,000 = 21.8% However, the funds would be invested in Malaysia, which could cause some concern about default risk or government restrictions on convertibility of the currency back to dollars.

Interest Rate Parity. Why would U.S. investors consider covered interest arbitrage in France when the interest rate on euros in France is lower than the U.S. interest rate?

If the forward premium on euros more than offsets the lower interest rate, investors could use covered interest arbitrage by investing in euros and achieve higher returns than in the U.S.

Interest Rate Parity. Explain the concept of interest rate parity. Provide the rationale for its possible existence.?

Interest rate parity states that the forward rate premium (or discount) of a currency should reflect the differential in interest rates between the two countries. If interest rate parity didn't exist, covered interest arbitrage could occur (in the absence of transactions costs, and foreign risk), which should cause market forces to move back toward conditions which reflect interest rate parity. The exact formula is provided in the chapter.

Locational Arbitrage. Explain the concept of locational arbitrage and the scenario necessary for it to be plausible.?

Locational arbitrage can occur when the spot rate of a given currency varies among locations. Specifically, the ask rate at one location must be lower than the bid rate at another location. The disparity in rates can occur since information is not always immediately available to all banks. If a disparity does exist, locational arbitrage is possible; as it occurs, the spot rates among locations should become realigned.

Covered Interest Arbitrage. The South African rand has a one-year forward premium of 2 percent. One-year interest rates in the U.S. are 3 percentage points higher than in South Africa. Based on this information, is covered interest arbitrage possible for a U.S. investor if interest rate parity holds?

No, covered interest arbitrage is not possible for a U.S. investor. Although the investor can lock in the higher exchange rate in one year, interest rates are 3 percent lower in South Africa.

Covered Interest Arbitrage in Both Directions. Assume that the existing U.S. one year interest rate is 10 percent and the Canadian one year interest rate is 11 percent. Also assume that interest rate parity exists. Should the forward rate of the Canadian dollar exhibit a discount or a premium? If U.S. investors attempt covered interest arbitrage, what will be their return? If Canadian investors attempt covered interest arbitrage, what will be their return?

The Canadian dollar's forward rate should exhibit a discount because its interest rate exceeds the U.S. interest rate. U.S. investors would earn a return of 10 percent using covered interest arbitrage, the same as what they would earn in the U.S. Canadian investors would earn a return of 11 percent using covered interest arbitrage, the same as they would earn in Canada.

Effects of September 11. The terrorist attack on the U.S. on September 11, 2001 caused expectations of a weaker U.S. economy. Explain how such expectations could have affected U.S. interest rates, and therefore have affected the forward rate premium (or discount) on various foreign currencies.

The expectations of a weaker U.S. economy resulted in a decline of short-term interest rates (in fact, the Fed expedited the movement by increasing liquidity in the banking system). The U.S. interest rate was reduced while foreign interest rates were not. Therefore, the forward premium on foreign currencies decreased, or the forward discount became more pronounced.

Changes in Forward Premiums. Assume that the Japanese yen's forward rate currently exhibits a premium of 6 percent and that interest rate parity exists. If U.S. interest rates decrease, how must this premium change to maintain interest rate parity? Why might we expect the premium to change?

The premium will decrease in order to maintain IRP, because the difference between the interest rates is reduced. We would expect the premium to change because as U.S. interest rates decrease, U.S. investors could benefit from covered interest arbitrage if the forward premium stays the same. The return earned by U.S. investors who use covered interest arbitrage would not be any higher than before, but the return would now exceed the interest rate earned in the U.S. Thus, there is downward pressure on the forward premium.

Inflation Effects on the Forward Rate. Why do you think currencies of countries with high inflation rates tend to have forward discounts?

These currencies have high interest rates, which cause forward rates to have discounts as a result of interest rate parity.

Covered Interest Arbitrage. Assume the following information: Spot rate of Mexican peso = $.100 180 day forward rate of Mexican peso= $.098 180 day Mexican interest rate= 6% 180 day U.S. interest rate= 5% Given this information, is covered interest arbitrage worth¬while for Mexican investors who have pesos to invest? Explain your answer.

To answer this question, begin with an assumed amount of pesos and determine the yield to Mexican investors who attempt covered interest arbitrage. Using MXP1,000,000 as the initial investment: MXP1,000,000 × $.100 = $100,000 × (1.05) = $105,000/$.098 = MXP1,071,429 Mexican investors would generate a yield of about 7.1% ([MXP1,071,429 - MXP1,000,000]/MXP1,000,000), which exceeds their domestic yield. Thus, it is worthwhile for them.

Covered Interest Arbitrage in Both Directions. The one year interest rate in New Zealand is 6 percent. The one year U.S. interest rate is 10 percent. The spot rate of the New Zealand dollar (NZ$) is $.50. The forward rate of the New Zealand dollar is $.54. Is covered interest arbitrage feasible for U.S. investors? Is it feasible for New Zealand investors? In each case, explain why covered interest arbitrage is or is not feasible.

To determine the yield from covered interest arbitrage by U.S. investors, start with an assumed initial investment, such as $1,000,000. $1,000,000/$.50 = NZ$2,000,000 × (1.06) = NZ$2,120,000 × $.54 = $1,144,800 Yield = ($1,144,800 - $1,000,000)/$1,000,000 = 14.48% Thus, U.S. investors can benefit from covered interest arbitrage because this yield exceeds the U.S. interest rate of 10 percent. To determine the yield from covered interest arbitrage by New Zealand investors, start with an assumed initial investment, such as NZ$1,000,000: NZ$1,000,000 × $.50 = $500,000 × (1.10) = $550,000/$.54 = NZ$1,018,519 Yield = (NZ$1,018,519 - NZ$1,000,000)/NZ$1,000,000 = 1.85% Thus, New Zealand investors would not benefit from covered interest arbitrage since the yield of 1.85% is less than the 6% that they could receive from investing their funds in New Zealand.

Triangular Arbitrage. Explain the concept of triangular arbitrage and the scenario necessary for it to be plausible.?

Triangular arbitrage is possible when the actual cross exchange rate between two currencies differs from what it should be. The appropriate cross rate can be determined given the values of the two currencies with respect to some other currency.

Locational Arbitrage. Assume the following information: Beal Bank Yardley Bank Bid price of New Zealand dollar $.401 $.398 Ask price of New Zealand dollar $.404 $.400 Given this information, is locational arbitrage possible? If so, explain the steps involved in locational arbitrage, and compute the profit from this arbitrage if you had $1,000,000 to use. What market forces would occur to eliminate any further possibilities of locational arbitrage?

Yes! One could purchase New Zealand dollars at Yardley Bank for $.40 and sell them to Beal Bank for $.401. With $1 million available, 2.5 million New Zealand dollars could be purchased at Yardley Bank. These New Zealand dollars could then be sold to Beal Bank for $1,002,500, thereby generating a profit of $2,500. The large demand for New Zealand dollars at Yardley Bank will force this bank's ask price on New Zealand dollars to increase. The large sales of New Zealand dollars to Beal Bank will force its bid price down. Once the ask price of Yardley Bank is no longer less than the bid price of Beal Bank, locational arbitrage will no longer be beneficial.

Triangular Arbitrage. Assume the following information: Quoted Price Value of Canadian dollar in U.S. dollars $.90 Value of New Zealand dollar in U.S. dollars $.30 Value of Canadian dollar in New Zealand dollars NZ$3.02 Given this information, is triangular arbitrage possible? If so, explain the steps that would reflect triangular arbitrage, and compute the profit from this strategy if you had $1,000,000 to use. What market forces would occur to eliminate any further possibilities of triangular arbitrage?

Yes. The appropriate cross exchange rate should be 1 Canadian dollar = 3 New Zealand dollars. Thus, the actual value of the Canadian dollars in terms of New Zealand dollars is more than what it should be. One could obtain Canadian dollars with U.S. dollars, sell the Canadian dollars for New Zealand dollars and then exchange New Zealand dollars for U.S. dollars. With $1,000,000, this strategy would generate $1,006,667 thereby representing a profit of $6,667. [$1,000,000/$.90 = C$1,111,111 × 3.02 = NZ$3,355,556 × $.30 = $1,006,667] The value of the Canadian dollar with respect to the U.S. dollar would rise. The value of the Canadian dollar with respect to the New Zealand dollar would decline. The value of the New Zealand dollar with respect to the U.S. dollar would fall.

Covered Interest Arbitrage in Both Directions. The following information is available: • You have $500,000 to invest • The current spot rate of the Moroccan dirham is $.110. • The 60-day forward rate of the Moroccan dirham is $.108. • The 60-day interest rate in the U.S. is 1 percent. • The 60-day interest rate in Morocco is 2 percent. a. What is the yield to a U.S. investor who conducts covered interest arbitrage? Did covered interest arbitrage work for the investor in this case? b. Would covered interest arbitrage be possible for a Moroccan investor in this case?

a. Covered interest arbitrage would involve the following steps: 1. Convert dollars to Moroccan dirham: $500,000/$.11 = MD4,545,454.55 2. Deposit the dirham in a Moroccan bank for 60 days. You will have MD4,545,454.55 × (1.02) = MD4,636,363.64 in 60 days. 3. In 60 days, convert the dirham back to dollars at the forward rate and receive MD4,636,363.64 × $.108 = $500,727.27 The yield to the U.S. investor is $500,727.27/$500,000 - 1 = .15%. Covered interest arbitrage did not work for the investor in this case. The lower Moroccan forward rate more than offsets the higher interest rate in Morocco. b. Yes, covered interest arbitrage would be possible for a Moroccan investor. The investor would convert dirham to dollars, invest the dollars at a 1 percent interest rate in the U.S., and sell the dollars forward 60 days. Even though the Moroccan investor would earn an interest rate that is 1 percent lower in the U.S., the forward rate discount of the dirham more than offsets that differential.

Covered Interest Arbitrage in Both Directions. Assume that the annual U.S. interest rate is currently 8 percent and Germany's annual interest rate is currently 9 percent. The euro's one-year forward rate currently exhibits a discount of 2 percent. a. Does interest rate parity exist? b. Can a U.S. firm benefit from investing funds in Germany using covered interest arbitrage? c. Can a German subsidiary of a U.S. firm benefit by investing funds in the United States through covered interest arbitrage?

a. No, because the discount is larger than the interest rate differential. b. No, because the discount on a forward sale exceeds the interest rate advantage of investing in Germany. c. Yes, because even though it would earn 1 percent less interest over the year by investing in U.S. dollars, it would be able to sell dollars for 2 percent more than it paid for them (it would be buying euros forward at a discount of 2 percent).

Deriving the Forward Rate. Assume that annual interest rates in the U.S. are 4 percent, while interest rates in France are 6 percent. a. According to IRP, what should the forward rate premium or discount of the euro be? b. If the euro's spot rate is $1.10, what should the one-year forward rate of the euro be?

a. p=(1.04)/(1.06) - 1 =-.0189 = -1.89% b. F = $1.01(1 - .0189) = $1.079