ISQS 3344: Forecasting (ch 4)

What is a trend?

A pattern in properties

Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of

adaptive smoothing

As compared to long-range forecasts, short-range forecasts:

deal with less comprehensive issues supporting management decisions.

3 types of forecasts

economic; technological; demand

what is a forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error

exponential smoothing

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n):

exponential smoothing forecast

A fundamental distinction between trend projection and linear regression is that:

in trend projection the independent variable is time; in linear regression the independent variable need not be time, but can be any variable with explanatory power.

A six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand:

is stable

Some uses of short range forecasting?

job assignments

what is a forecast with a time horizon of a 3 months to 3 years

medium

Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into which three categories?

short-range; medium-range; and long-range

(t/f) Cycles and random variations are both components of time series.

true

(t/f) Demand forecasts serve as inputs to financial, marketing, and personnel planning.

true