middle east

The Nakba

for the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian Arabs who felt forced to flee their homes for refugee camps, this was the Nakba or the "tragedy"

The Role of Elites

group of people with their own ideas, benefits and goals in life

The Real Purpose of the Yom Kippur War attack

to prove to Israel and wider region that its military could successfully fight the Israelis, and that the power differential between the two was not nearly as great as the 1967 Six Day War made it appear.

The Humiliation

to the ARAB STATES it was "The Humiliation"

Justice and Development Party (AKP)

- 1 country where Islamism has seen real political gains (and relatively widespread support) is Turkey - In 2002, the moderate Islamist AKP, led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, secured a substantial parliamentary majority in national elections - the world expected the usual pro-secular military coup & one was planned, but Erdoğan got out ahead of it and in 2003 arrested and imprisoned over 300 military officers, thus smashing the army's 70-year old hold on power and the "secular soul" of modern Turkey.

PLO actions after 1988

- 5 years after their exile began, Yasser Arafat and the other PLO leaders agreed to stop fighting against Israel, to recognize its right to exist, and to begin negotiations toward a "Two-State Solution": a Palestinian Arab state and Israel living side-by-side - peace talks, sponsored and mediated by the United States, almost immediately began to move forward - average Palestinian Arabs, who had been living under Israeli occupation since 1967 (or as refugees throughout the region since 1948) could not believe that the fight was potentially over, and Islamists within Palestinian Arab society were furious with all parties involved

Al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, and the road to 9/11

- Al Qaeda, led by Osama bin Laden, began to launch attacks against the U.S. because it was the "Far Enemy" and because the presence of American troops in Saudi Arabia was "defiling" holy ground - In 1993, the organization drove a truck filled with explosives into a parking garage under the World Trade Center in New York City and detonated it in hopes of bringing down the structure - 6 people were killed and over 1,500 were wounded. In 1998, they carried out twin bombings at American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, killing over 240 people - In 2000, a boat filled with explosives detonated alongside the U.S.S. Cole in a port in Yemen, killing 17 American sailors - Finally, on September 11, 2001, Al Qaeda fighters hijacked and crashed four planes on U.S. soil - one into each tower of the World Trade Center, one into the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., and one in an empty field in rural Pennsylvania - Over 3,000 Americans were killed.

Water

- As in much of the wider Middle East, water is a very scarce resource in the Palestine Region. - Right now, Israel controls the primary water sources in the area and sells a portion of that water to the Palestinian Arabs. - A peace deal would require a new water-sharing agreement that would allow both sides to feel confident in their ability to meet their needs.

Camp David Accords

- Egypt and Israel signed the Camp David Accords, a historic peace deal, brokered by the United States - egypt agreed to recognize Israel, and Israel gave back the Sinai Peninsula - The deal was widely condemned across the Middle East and by the Egyptian population: Israel was still seen by most as the ultimate enemy of the Arab people, and the U.S. as the representative of Western ("colonial") interests - the deal did succeed in ending an era of conflict between Israel and its neighbors, but also marked the end of popular support for Arab Nationalism in the region, as its leaders were increasingly seen as collaborators with the growing presence of American power

1967 War

- Facing imminent attack by Egypt, Israel launches a preemptive strike against Egypt, Syria, and Jordan and defeats all three. - Millions now live under Israeli military rule. - Many more leave for refugee camps in neighboring countries

End result of "spreading democracy" to the Middle East

- For decades, the people of the Middle East had put their faith in tribal elites, secular elites, and religious elites, hoping that one of the groups could deliver them from the "burdens" of poverty, fragmentation, "colonial" influence, and Israel - Now, all three had failed, and the other alternative - democracy - seemed at best to be a distant dream: every major country in the region outside of Iraq was ruled by some kind of authoritarian regime: monarchies, military dictatorships, theocracy (in Iran) - the first two of which were now enjoying a new lease on life following the seeming failure of top-down democracy-promotion in the Arab World. - The West and the leadership of the region agreed that the people simply could not be trusted, and seemed to many to be working together to keep them under control.

Hezbollah

- The occupation led to the rise of Hezbollah, a Shi'ite Arab militant group that hopes to build Shi'ite power in Lebanon and defeat Israel. - Hezbollah makes Israel's life miserable in Southern Lebanon, and Israel's pull-out in 2000 is quietly referred to as a retreat. - In 2006, Hezbollah fighters infiltrated Israel, shot up a town, and kidnapped IDF soldiers. Israel responded by invaded Lebanon again, smashing its transportation network, and blowing up anything having to do with Hezbollah. - When Israel left, however, Hezbollah was still standing

Suez Crisis of 1956

- In 1956, the general guy nationalized the Suez Canal, taking control from the British and French companies who jointly ran it - that triggered the Suez Crisis of 1956 where the British & French hatched a plan with the Israelis to take the Sinai Peninsula and the canal from Egypt - Israel was tasked with launching a military invasion across the peninsula, which was then to be followed by the deployment of British and French "peacekeepers" who would parachute into the canal zone in order to stop the Israeli offensive, negotiate a peace settlement between Egypt and Israel, and then retain control over the canal zone - The Soviet Union called foul on the whole affair, and threatened to enter the conflict if the British, French, and Israelis did not withdraw - The U.S., fearing a superpower conflict in the Middle East, forced the trio to back down, thus ceding the Suez Canal permanently to Nasser and the Egyptians.

Yom Kippur War

- In 1973, they raised the price as a political tool - on October 6, Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel - In the war, Israel eventually retook the lost territory and "won," but suffered far heavier casualties than in the 1967 conflict.

Lebanese Civil War & Its Impact on Israel and the Palestinian Arabs

- In 1975, a brutal civil war broke out in Lebanon, fueled by age-old rivalries between the country's Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Shi'ite Muslims - the refugee camps were also increasingly being used by the PLO to launch attacks on Israel - tn 1982, Israel entered the conflict in Lebanon, with the expressed goal of eliminating PLO strongholds in the country - after intense fighting, they accomplished this goal, and forced PLO leadership into exile in Tunisia, thus leaving the Palestinian Arab people on their own to face Israel's military occupation.

1st Intifada

- In 1987, Arab attacks on Israelis increases, leading to the declaration of an Intifada by the Arabs in December. - Israel responds with overwhelming military force. - Throughout 1987, frustration boils over into strikes,protests, and violence against Israel. In December, an Intifada ("shaking out") is declared, sparking mostly non-violent organized demonstrations and resistance of all types against Israel - A new organization, Hamas, rises out of the Intifada. - Unlike the secular PLO, Hamas is an Islamist organization affiliated with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. - It calls for the destruction of Israel and the creation of an Islamist state in Palestine.

Persian Gulf War of 1990

- In 1990, Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi army invaded and conquered Kuwait, hoping to both see the country's debts canceled and its "rightful" territory finally recognized - he announced that this was a first step in his goal of unifying the wider Arab World forcibly under Iraqi rule, and that Saudi Arabia could be next - President George H.W. Bush assembled an international coalition of 39 countries, including nine of Iraq's Arab neighbors, and crushed the Iraqi military in Operation Desert Storm - The Iraqi army suffered ten-of-thousands of battlefield casualties, while the U.S. lost approximately 300 soldiers, fewer than half of them in direct combat situations - despite the overwhelming success of pushing Hussein out of Kuwait, the decision was made not to overthrow him, but to institute and defend no-fly zones over the major Kurdish and Shi'ite regions of Iraq, and to force Hussein to give up his substantial chemical and biological weapons programs - in the end, we hoped that a critically weakened Hussein would be simply be overwhelmed and overthrown by his own people but he proved far more resilient than anyone had imagined, and efforts at an uprising were met with a brutal response from the regime - thousands were killed and millions were left homeless

The Iraq War of 2003 - hopes & grim reality

- In 2003, we invaded Iraq - Hussein was toppled relatively easily, but events soon spiraled out of control: Sunni Arabs in the country rose up in a violent insurgency, and fighting between them and the Shi'ite Arab majority raged for years, with American troops caught in the middle - sunni Extremists from around the region streamed into the country in defense of the Sunni Arab Iraqis, and to take advantage of the fact that the "Far Enemy" was now near.

Soviet Afghan War

- In December, 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan - took place outside of the Middle East - the idea of an (officially) atheist global superpower violently attempting to subdue and force its way of life on fellow Muslims led to a call for Jihad (holy war to defend the faith) by a wide swath of Islamists across the Middle East. - Arab governments encouraged potential Jihadists including a young Saudi named Osama bin Laden to heed the call, both to defend the Afghan people and to send potential Islamist political opponents off to their deaths on the battlefield - As the war ground on, the U.S. began to support Afghan resistance (not the foreign Islamists), which turned the tide in the fighting and eventually forced the Soviets to pull their troops out of the country in 1989 - arab Islamists were never a major factor in the fighting, but nonetheless returned home as heroes to many in the region, who credited them with winning a great victory against the second-most powerful country in the world - using what he had learned about fighting, financing, and recruiting during the war, Osama bin Laden worked with other Salafist leaders to create Al Qaeda in 1988, and declared their intention to begin targeting the U.S., who they saw as the "far enemy" who helped to keep their "near enemies" - the secular and tribal elites and Israel - in power across the region.

Six Day War

- In late May, 1967, Nasser - who had long promised to use the unified power of the Arab people to destroy Israel - began to mass troops in the Sinai Peninsula - fearing an imminent invasion, the Israelis launched a devastating pre-emptive strike against the Egyptians on June 5, which marked the start of the Six Day War - by the time a ceasefire was signed on June 10, Israel had crushed Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, while occupying the Gaza Strip and Sinai Peninsula (from Egypt), the West Bank and East Jerusalem (from Jordan), and the Golan Heights (from Syria - Israel suffered fewer than 800 casualties in the fighting, while the Arab states lost over 15,000 men and almost their entire arsenal of Soviet-supplied military hardware.

U.S. vs. Al Qaeda in Afghanistan

- In response to the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in October, 2001, pushing the extremist Taliban government out of power and killing and scattering Al Qaeda's core leadership across South Asia - Bin Laden was finally killed in Pakistan in 2011. The U.S. then looked to expand military operations into Iraq - Saddam Hussein was suspected of continuing to harbor weapons of mass destruction, and the threat of those falling into the hands of Al Qaeda was deemed to be a grave threat. Iraq also presented an opportunity to pursue secondary goal: there was a broad consensus within the George W. Bush administration that a lack of political freedom was the primary driving force behind terrorism, and that bringing democracy to the region could be the key to ending the threat.

Uprisings in Libya

- Inspired by the initial success of the Egyptian uprising, the people of Libya stormed the streets of Tripoli and Benghazi, in February, 2011 in protest against President Muammar Qaddafi, who had been in power since leading a coup against the monarchy in 1969. - Qaddafi, who had long since taken complete control over all levers of power, including the military, fought back against the people, plunging the country into civil war. - Soon after the fighting started, he publically threatened the opposition city of Benghazi, stating, "We are coming tonight. You will come out from inside. Prepare yourselves from tonight. We will find you in your closets...[opponents will be shown] "no mercy or compassion." - When the fighting also threatened to sever oil supply lines to Europe, the United Nations passed a resolution authorizing the use of force for the "protection of civilians" in Libya. - The British, French, and Americans used this resolution to justify providing air support for rebel fighters on the ground, and the Libyan military was eventually defeated. - Qaddafi himself was captured by the Libyan people and executed on the spot in December, 2011. - Unfortunately, Western interest in Libya was short-lived, and the competing tribes and regions of the country, which could unite in opposition to Qaddafi but have little else in common, plunged the country into continued fighting that continues today. - There is currently no functioning government that rules over all of Libya - it is effectively a failed state.

Sanctions & their impact

- Iran's nuclear ambitions led to the imposition of increasingly harsh economic sanctions. These, combined with Ahmadinejad's mismanagement of the economy, cost him support at home. - Ahmadinejad was now free to serve out his second term, but did so in an increasingly desperate economic situation, as U.S. sanctions on Iran's nuclear program rapidly became crushing global sanctions as we convinced more and more countries to help us isolate the regime. According to the Council on Foreign Relations: "International sanctions have taken a severe toll on the Iranian economy. In April 2015, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew estimated that Iran's economy was 15 to 20 percent smaller than it would have been had sanctions not been ratcheted up in 2012 and cost $160 billion in lost oil revenue alone. - In 2018, however, President Trump pulled the United States out of the P-5+1 deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran, stating that they, while in compliance with the nuclear agreement, were building missile systems and using their money to support terrorism and conflict across the Middle East. Other countries were not on board with the U.S. decision, but we have made clear that any company or country violating our sanctions will find itself sanctioned, so most have left Iran again (although a few are defiantly still buying oil). Expect the economy to shrink dramatically in the near-term, with an uncertain long-term ahead.

Shah Reza Pahlavi

- Iranian Shah in 1925 - was allowed to stay in power as long as he agreed to British demands about oil - he betrayed this agreement by approaching Nazi Germany for a better deal for the oil fields - when the British found out about the Persian-German agreements in 1941, they and the Soviet Union invaded Iran, deposed Pahlavi, and replaced him as Shah with his own son

Iranian-affiliated Shi'ite Muslim Militias

- Iranian religious government in power since 1979 - sponsors a number of armed Shi'ite militias & political parties across the Middle East - the most famous one is Hezbollah, which fights for the Shi'ite Muslim population of Lebanon

1982

- Israel invades Lebanon, defeats the PLO, and send its leadership into exile. - PLO leadership is defeated in Lebanon and forced into exile in Tunisia. The Palestinian Arabs under IDF control are now leaderless.

The Cycle of Violence

- Large majorities on both sides would like to put their differences aside, make a peace agreement, and create two countries in the Palestine Region - both sides have very small minorities that oppose peace and are willing to do whatever it takes - including violence - to keep a peace deal from happening - peace talks in the 1990's led to the assassination of an Israeli Prime Minister by an extremist Israeli, and Hamas and other Palestinian Arab terrorist groups have often responded to peace talks with suicide bombings against Israel. - In both cases, the "five percent" want all of the Palestine Region for their respective country. Extremist Israelis believe that a "Greater Israel" - including the West Bank and Gaza Strip - better matches the borders of the Biblical Kingdom of Israel, while extremist Palestinian Arabs have never accepted Israel's right to exist, and demand all of Palestine for the Arabs. - Thousands of people are both sides have been killed by the other side over the years. - Palestinian Arab militants have long attacked Israeli civilians through suicide bombings, rocket attacks, and cross-border raids. - The IDF - whose primary mission is to keep Israelis safe - has always responded to such attacks with modern weapons and brutal force, often killing innocent civilians while targeting militant leaders, fighters, and weapons stashes. In recent months, the violence has taken a new turn - seeming "lone wolf" style knife attacks by Palestinian Arabs against Israelis.

British Mandate

- On May 15, 1948, the British Mandate ended and Israel declared its independence within the boundaries developed by Resolution 181 -

The situation in Palestine between 1920 and World War II

- Palestine region was placed under direct British control at the end of WWI - British struggled to manage the increasing Jewish immigrants and Palestinian Arabs - when both sides attacked, the British placed quotas on Jewish immigration to Palestine at the same time the Nazi's "Final Solution" was being implemented in Europe - by the end of WWII, Britain was looking for an exit from Palestine.

Uprisings in Yemen

- Protests also broke out in January, 2011 against President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, who took power when he unified the country in 1990. - The protests were led by the small segment of Yemeni society that is educated and - in any other country - would be upwardly mobile. - The rest of the country hardly noticed the protests, as the various regions had been embroiled in their own separatist movements, civil wars, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula plots, etc. for years, leaving Yemen impoverished and on the brink of failure. Saleh stepped down in November, 2011, but nothing really changed in the country - fighting continued, the Yemeni people were still the poorest in the Middle East, and the country was still a chaotic mess. In 2015, Shi'ite Houthi rebels (funded by Iran) rose up in rebellion against what little government existed and took over the capitol and surrounding territory. This led Saudi Arabia and a number of its Arab allies to enter the conflict on the side of Yemen's Sunni leaders. Saudi air strikes and Houthi offensives have killed thousands of civilians (no one really pays too much attention to where the bombs fall...) and sieges against major cities and blockades of major ports have created one of the most acute humanitarian crises of the 21st Century - millions face famine and likely starvation.

Muhammad Reza Pahlavi

- Shah's son - agreed to cooperate with the Allies against the Axis Powers - Iran remained under British control for the war - stayed as Shah after the war and remained loyal to the British

Saudi Arabia & The Grand Mosque of Mecca

- Sunni gunmen seized the Grand Mosque of Mecca in Saudi Arabia demanding the overthrow of the monarchy - they held their ground until Saudi forces expelled them two weeks later - the Kingdom was rattled by this event, and in response it pursued a détente with its clerics, seeking to renew its legitimacy in the eyes of the Muslim World by hewing closer to the radicals' brand of Islam

Occupied Territories

- The IDF occupies the Sinai Peninsula, West Bank, East Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip, and Golan Heights, & now controls the lives of millions of Palestinian Arabs. - The Israeli military occupied Southern Lebanon from 1982 to 2000

Religious Elites

- The Islamists - they believe that the region can only be united through Muslim heritage and want to impose Sharia (religious) law on the people - had a hard time getting real political power with the exception of the Shi'ite Theocracy in Iran and the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey - frustration at lack of political power led for Islamist groups to turn to violence and terrorism aimed at all of the other elites

Oslo

- The Oslo Accords are announced in 1993, which officially starts the planning for a "two-state solution" - Hamas shows its disdain for Oslo by launching a wave of suicide bombings against Israeli targets in an effort to derail negotiations. - Average Palestinians enjoy more freedoms, but are also frustrated by the divisions created in the West Bank by the boundaries set up by the Oslo Accords - it is a maze of overlapping claims - some places are controlled by the Palestinian Authority, some by the IDF, and some by Jewish settlements.

1948 Arab-Israeli War

- The Palestinian Arabs rejected partition and armies from 5 Arab States (Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Syria, and Jordan) - declared war on Israel and launched an attack

Iranian Revolution

- The Shah of Iran fell from power and was replaced by a Theocracy led by the Shi'ite religious establishment - the first Islamist government to take power in the Middle East - the Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini took over the country and declared it the enemy of the U.S. ("The Great Satan") & Israel ("The Little Satan") and the protector of Shi'ite Muslims throughout the world - khomeini declared that Islamic Revolution, led by Iran, would soon sweep the region - within months of the successful revolution, rumors began to circulate in Tehran that an American coup was imminent, which would remove the Ayatollahs and bring the deposed Shah back to power - in response, Iranian hardliners and students stormed and occupied the U.S. embassy, taking more than sixty hostages - the U.S. slapped economic sanctions on Iran and cut off all official diplomatic relations, initially to little effect - negotiations eventually secured the release of the hostages in January, 1981, but diplomatic ties never recommended between the former allies - The loss of Iran as a strategic partner in the region led the U.S. to further embrace both Arab Monarchies and Arab military regimes, and to become even closer to Israel.

Uprisings in Bahrain

- The Sunni Arab monarchy in Bahrain faced an uprising led by its largely Shi'ite population starting in February, 2011. - protesters occupied the Pearl Roundabout in the capital city of Manama, demanding greater political freedom and an end to discrimination against Shi'ites - the monarchy looked ready to give into their demands by the start of March, but after an "invitation" to meet with the King of Saudi Arabia, Bahraini King Hamad al-Khalifa instead ordered his security forces (backed by Saudi troops & guns) to put down the rebellion - dozens were killed, thousands were arrested, and the uprising was put down.

Partition

- The UN passed Resolution 181, which called for Palestine to be split into two states, one for Jews and one for Arabs - Jews accepted it, and Israel was formed. Palestinian Arabs rejected partition and hoped Arab invasion of Israel would result in an Arab State that incorporated all of Palestine

Appeal of the Religious Elites as a result of everything above

- The anger of the Arab people gave the Religious Elites the opening for which they had been waiting for decades - they began to build support within the general population, and the modernization campaigns of Arab Nationalism were thrown into reverse - religion and "traditional values" were back in vogue, and all things Western and "modern" were being widely rejected - the regimes of the region reacted with violent crackdowns against organized Islamist opposition, but also, in an effort to rebuild support from the people, also began to embrace a return of religion to public life - the U.S. feared the potential destabilization that the Islamist opposition posed - what would they do if they took power? Would oil sales stop? Would Israel be attacked? - Secular and Tribal regimes across the region took full advantage of these fears, selling themselves to American policy-makers as the only thing protecting the order of the region from the chaos of the unknown

Peace Talks

- The breakdown of peace talks leads to an unprecedented spiral of violence - thousands of Israelis are killed or injured in Hamas suicide bombings aimed at buses, schools, stores, etc. - The breakdown of peace talks leads to an unprecedented spiral of violence - thousands Palestinian Arabs are killed or injured in IDF military operations aimed at stopping Hamas.

Uprisings in Other monarchies

- the other monarchies in the region also faced protests but either had the excess cash from oil exports to pay off their subjects or - in the case of Morocco & Jordan - the ability to further open already partially-constitutional systems in order to placate the people enough to get them to go home without violence - outside of Bahrain, no monarchies in the region faced any real threats from their people.

Arab Oil Embargo

- The resulting combination of higher prices (gasoline prices quadrupled in the U.S. during the embargo) and supply shortages wreaked havoc on the global economy, and showed the world that the long-feared "Arab Oil Weapon" was a real threat and a potentially useful tool for the projection of Arab power - this led many Western nations, including the U.S., to rethink their policies on energy security, and the U.S. began to make plans for greater domestic production (especially from offshore deposits in the Gulf of Mexico & in Alaska), and began to emphasize the idea of "stability" amongst its petro-trading partners.

Attempted / failed military coup

- The world expected the usual pro-secular military coup & one was planned, but Erdoğan got out ahead of it and in 2003 arrested and imprisoned over 300 military officers, thus smashing the army's 70-year old hold on power and the "secular soul" of modern Turkey.

Hassan Rouhani

- Thus, in the long-run the hardliners lost popular support, and the Iranian people overwhelmingly voted for Hassan Rouhani in 2013 (and the Ayatollahs let the votes count this time!) - rouhani is an unabashed moderate, and immediately signaled a willingness to talk with the U.S. about halting Iran's nuclear program - A deal was reached in the summer of 2015 with the U.S., UK, France, China, Russia and Germany (the "P-5+1") in which Iran agreed to put its nuclear program on hold for ten years in exchange for a gradual roll-back of sanctions - Investment began to roll into Iran's economy almost immediately, as the world once again warmed to Iran.

Uprisings in Egypt

- Tunisia's popular uprising inspired similar protests in Egypt in late January, 2011 against its military regime, led by President Hosni Mubarak since the early 1980's - after 18 days of largely peaceful protests, Mubarak was forced out of power on behalf of the Egyptian people by the Egyptian military - The Egyptian military moved swiftly to organize the first free and fair parliamentary and presidential elections in Egyptian history, both of which were dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood and its leading candidate, Mohamad Morsi - morsi's presidency was short-lived, as he concentrated more on consolidating power than addressing the key social and economic concerns that had sparked the revolution in the first place - egyptians once again took to the streets in the summer of 2014 and Morsi was forced from office in a military coup. - General Abdul Fattah al-Sisi took control of the country and won a subsequent election - Once in power, al-Sisi had Morsi and hundreds of other Muslim Brotherhood members arrested - most will likely die in prison. - Since the purge in 2014, the Muslim Brotherhood has been effectively eliminated in Egypt as an opposition force. Unfortunately, Egypt is essentially right back where it started - under the control of a military strongman, who has outlawed most opposition parties and rolled back political freedom.

Uprisings - causes, actions, results

- Tunisia's popular uprising inspired similar protests in Egypt in late January, 2011 against its military regime, which had been led by President Hosni Mubarak since the early 1980's - After eighteen days of largely peaceful protests, Mubarak was forced out of power on behalf of the Egyptian people by the Egyptian military.

Creeping authoritarianism

- Under Erdoğan's early leadership, Turkey's economy began to grow rapidly and it even entered into membership talks with the EU - Erdoğan enjoyed wide popular support amongst the Turkish people, and the AKP won subsequent electoral victories in 2007 and 2011 - He also, however, showed signs of authoritarian tendencies, as he forced religion back into public life and began to arrest regime critics and journalists - In 2014, term limits forced Erdoğan to step down as prime minister, but he almost immediately ran for President, a post that - up to this point - had been largely ceremonial - After taking office, he began to build support in Turkey for constitutional changes that would flip the balance of power in favor of the presidency. - This led to a second attempted military coup in 2016, which Erdoğan once again managed to defeat. - In its aftermath, hundreds of thousands of military officers, competing Islamists, and ordinary citizens were arrested and most remain imprisoned. This purge of Turkish civil society was unprecedented in the history of the country, and cemented Erdoğan's reputation as an authoritarian figure. - The constitutional changes sought by Erdoğan were achieved in April, 2017 when the Turkish people narrowly approved them in a nationwide referendum - Since then, Erdoğan has worked swiftly to crush nearly all opposition and is emerging as a Putin-style authoritarian, much to the chagrin of the country's NATO allies, including the United States.

Contrast with Libya

- Unlike in Libya, no U.N. resolution was passed to pave the way for outside military intervention - Russia and China promised to veto anything that was proposed , and the West was hesitant to involve itself in another Arab war, especially one in a country as diverse as Syria, which is home to Sunni Arabs, Kurds, Alawites, Christians, etc.

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk

- Wartime hero (turkish national movement) was named the President of the country - he undertook a secularization and modernization campaign eliminating the power of religious authorities and westernized everything - he set a powerful precedent for secular, modern government in Turkey

Iranian Hostage Crisis

- Within months of the successful revolution, rumors began to circulate in Tehran that an American coup was imminent, which would remove the Ayatollahs and bring the deposed Shah back to power - in response, Iranian hardliners and students stormed and occupied the U.S. embassy, taking more than sixty hostages - the U.S. slapped economic sanctions on Iran and cut off all official diplomatic relations, initially to little effect - negotiations eventually secured the release of the hostages in January, 1981, but diplomatic ties never recommenced between the former allies - the loss of Iran as a strategic partner in the region led the U.S. to further embrace both Arab Monarchies and Arab military regimes, and to become even closer to Israel.

Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)

- a loose affiliate of bin Laden's core organization, led the carnage - targeted U.S. service personnel as well as Iraqis civilians of all ethnicities and religious affiliations, killing tens-of-thousands in a string of suicide and roadside bombings and other attacks - the U.S. did manage to organize elections, but the Sunni population widely boycotted them, and resented the ensuing Shi'ite Arab victories

Tribal Elites

- the royal families of the Middle East - almost every country was ruled by them until 1949 - Examples: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, and Morocco

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

- after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, his replacement, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei built the government into a kind of hybrid system - unelected religious leaders had the final say on long-term strategy of the country and had veto power over all political candidates who could run for office, but the people were free to pick a president and members of the Iranian parliament - In the 1990's, this led to the election of moderate, reformist leaders, who tentatively opened up the country socially and politically, leading many to believe that better days may lie ahead.

"Managed Democracy" and the Role of the Military

- after the death of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in 1938, Turkey developed into what can best be described as a "managed democracy" - the people had the right to choose their leaders as long as those leaders maintained a stable & secular Turkey, thus upholding Atatürk's legacy

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

- an anti-Western hardliner, as President in 2005. - Ahmadinejad used increasing oil prices and the post-invasion wave of anti American sentiment to become a major influence in the Middle East, touring the world and sharing the country's new petro-windfall with anti-American leaders and Shi'ite militant groups - He also restarted a long-dormant push for nuclear power which sent a wave of panic through Western and Israeli societies.

Saudi Arabia's Origins

- an exception to British and French domination - a unified kingdom under the rule of the Al-Saud family in 1932 - established "special relationship" with the US after American engineers made the largest oil find in history in the eastern part of the country

When/why the people turned against AQI and violent Islamism

- anization, led the carnage - they targeted U.S. service personnel as well as Iraqis civilians of all ethnicities and religious affiliations, killing tens-of-thousands in a string of suicide and roadside bombings and other attacks - The U.S. did manage to organize elections, but the Sunni population widely boycotted them, and resented the ensuing Shi'ite Arab victories - To many Arabs across the region, the war in Iraq looked like a colonial occupation, not the liberation of a people striving for political freedom, and at first there was wide support for the insurgency against the U.S. - as extremists began to target more and more Muslims, attitudes began to change - in 2005, AQI perpetrated a triple-bombing attack against hotels in the Kingdom of Jordan, killing almost sixty people, nearly all of whom were Muslims - Al Qaeda in Iraq declared the bombings to be a great victory against the evils of Western imperialism and culture, but many in Iraq and across the region saw them as nothing but more than Muslim blood being needlessly spilled by fellow Muslims - Public opinion began to rapidly swing against the group, as well as other extremist groups operating in the region

Great War of Independence

- arab leaders did not coordinate their forces 1949 - the Israeli army secured what the U.N. granted them and captured more territory than planned (western half of the city of Jerusalem) - to ISRAEL, this was the "Great War of Independence"

Arab Nationalism/Pan-Arabism

- arab world was upset with the West for making/supporting Israel and with the monarchies for failing to win against the West - secular elites looked for a way to overthrow the monarchies and erase the European drawn boundaries, thus creating a unified Arab empire

How/Why/Under Whose Power the British & French divided up the Arab World

- at the end of WWI, the British and French determined that the future of warfare lay in mechanization, and to that end they needed to have direct control over the oil supplies of the Middle East - so decided to divide the Arab World up into "mandates" that they would control for some time and then give it to national governments aka puppet monarchs

Israel

- became an independent country in 1948 - the Israeli government and people want recognition and safety from their neighbors and borders - Israelis are divided over the role of religion in society

The Muslim Brotherhood

- began as an Egyptian Muslim political party back in the 1920's - prefer gaining political power through democratic processes but will turn to violence if it's necessary - often seen as a more moderate branch of Islam - reached out to other religious groups in the past with promises of tolerance if they would take power - Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood

Arab Nationalism after 1967

- by the spring of 1967, Arab pressure on Israel had become unbearable for the Jewish State - the Egyptian navy blockaded the Gulf of Aqaba, no Arab states ) would recognize Israel politically or do business with it, and relentless cross border attacks by Palestinian militant groups, led by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) were taking a relentless toll on the Israeli population

Saddam Hussein & the Iran-Iraq War

- came to power in Iraq via a military coup. He was the last in a long line of Sunni Arab military strongmen to rule the country, and he quickly established himself as a friend of the U.S. and a sworn enemy of Iran - in September, 1980, Hussein ordered the invasion of Iran by Iraqi forces, hoping to take advantage of the chaos of the Islamic Revolution in order to win a quick victory and capture valuable oil fields and coastal ports. - The U.S. - furious with the new Iranian government - supported Hussein's invasion at first, but as the war ground into a vicious stalemate, U.S. support diminished, especially when reports of chemical weapons use by the Iraqi military (against both the Iranians and Iraqi Kurds) began to emerge - attacks on oil tankers sailing in the Persian Gulf by both sides early in the war also unsettled oil markets around the world, creating a second round of supply shortages and high prices, reminiscent of 1973 - in response, the U.S. dramatically increased its naval presence in the waterways of the region. The Iran-Iraq War ground on for eight years, costing the two sides over 1 million combined soldiers - At the end of the war, no territory had changed hands, but Hussein had racked up billions in debts, much of it owed to the Kuwaiti Royal Family.

Western Elites

- colonial powers -such as Britain and France or the U.S. and the Soviet Union 3 Primary concerns of them - 1) stable oil markets 2) access to the rest of the world via waterways 3) protecting the status of Christian minorities within the region - The U.S. has also maintained a close relationship with Israel

Turkish National Liberation War

- turkey fought this 4-year war with its neighbors - occupying Greek and French forces to reclaim its lost territory lost from WW1 - battlefield victories led to treaties and negotiations

Jerusalem

- contains important holy sites for Judaism, Christianity, & Islam, all of which are located within about 5 minutes of each other in the "Old City" of Jerusalem, which is located in the eastern half of the city - when the United Nations drew up its original partition plan, they hoped to turn Jerusalem into an international city, which would be run by the U.N. and remain open to everyone. In the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, Israel captured the western half of the city and Jordan captured the eastern half. In the 1967 Six Days War, Israel captured the eastern half and "annexed" it, making Jerusalem a unified city and officially a part of Israel. - Today, Israel considers Jerusalem to be its capital. Palestinian Arabs make up a majority of people who live in East Jerusalem (none of whom were granted Israeli citizenship in 1967), and they want that part of the city to be the capital of a Palestinian State. Israel considers this demand to be unacceptable, and will not give up half the city to the Arabs, especially when the "Arab half" contains the major Jewish religious sites, including the Western Wall and Temple Mount. For many years after the 1967 war, there was an uneasy, but relatively steady truce between Arabs and Israelis - Muslims would worship on top of the old Temple Mount (the "Noble Sanctuary" to Islam), while Jewish worshipers would pray at the Western Wall. - However, this truce has been broken in the past, and is currently being stretched to its limits.

The Shah after Operation Ajax

- for the next 25 years, he used his authority to forcibly Westernize the country and imposed his will on the Iranian people through the feared secret police - most of the oil revenues, now under the Shah's control, went to palace-building and American military hardware instead of improving the welfare of the people, who became increasingly frustrated with the Shah and increasingly angry at the U.S., which they saw as his primary benefactor.

Uprisings in Tunisia

- in December, 2010, a 26-year old "informal" fruit and vegetable seller in Tunisia had his cart confiscated by the police and was badly beaten when he resisted - these were the same police to whom he had long paid bribes in lieu of purchasing a license from the government - after they refused to return the cart - his only means of earning a living and supporting his family - Mohammed Bouazizi set himself on fire in front of the police station in protest. His public self-immolation (and subsequent death from his injuries in January 2011) triggered mass protests across Tunisia, led by other young people who had long since given up on the broken promises of economic development and political reform by Tunisia's military dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Unlike Iran in 2009, protesters refused to be dispersed, and Ben Ali was forced to step down and flee the country on January 14, 2011 - tunisia has since had a series of successful democratic elections, and seems well on its way to a (hopefully) bright political future, although economic development has continued to be slow.

Salafism

- larger category of Sunni Islam with a fundamentalist view on Islam - includes a harsh version of Sharia law - limited role for women - rejection of modernity, Western culture, and other religions - found small numbers in every Muslim country and their views are rejected by the majority of the people - best terrorist organizations: Al Qaeda and ISIS.

Secular Elites

- military leaders or non-religious organizations within the region - pushed for economic and social modernization campaigns and have been suspicious of the role of religion in Middle Eastern societies - Examples of countries run by secular elites : Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Libya and Turkey-

2007 Surge in Iraq and its impact

- most Iraqis responded positively to an American troop "surge" against AQI and other insurgent groups, and the country settled into an uneasy peace - the idea of democracy-building, however, had fallen decidedly out of favor, and the U.S. and other Western nations were once again content to allow military governments and (mostly) absolute monarchies to stay in power - anything had to be better than the The sectarian carnage of Iraq.

The Regular People

- nearly 500 million people - Arabs, Persians, Turks, Kurds, etc. - most of them just want to provide for their families, choose their own political leaders, and make their own daily choices - these simple wishes were thwarted by the elites who don't trust the people - lack of consensus of what direction their countries should take (the educated and urban have a more modern outlook in terms of religion. the role of women in society, and their attitudes toward the West, while the poor and rural tend to be very traditional in their views, often emphasizing family and tribal affiliations over more contemporary societal structures.)

Pan-Islamism

- religious elites hoped to accomplish a similar outcome, but with Islam as the unifying force instead of ethnic identity - both promised to destroy Israel and to minimize the Western influence in the region.

Ayatollah Khomeini

- the Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini took over the country and declared it the enemy of the U.S. ("The Great Satan") & Israel ("The Little Satan") and the protector of Shi'ite Muslims throughout the world - khomeini declared that Islamic Revolution, led by Iran, would soon sweep the region

Turkey's political leanings

- the arbiter of "stable and secular" was the military: if they determined that an elected government was too Islamist-leaning, corrupt, or incompetent, the generals would step in & take power until the situation was resolved - military coups thus occurred in 1960, 1971, 1980, and 1997. - turkey maintained a close relationship with the U.S. and Europe and concerned itself more with issues in the West than with its neighbors to the South, even maintaining a relatively friendly relationship with the Israelis.

Bashar al-Assad

- the leader of Syria since his father's death in 2000,1 faced an uprising of his own in March, 2011, when protesters took to the streets in the city of Deraa and were immediately attacked by security forces - protests against the brutality of the crackdown in Deraa spread to other cities, followed by more violent reprisals by the government - by the end of 2011, Syria had descended into civil war.

General Gamal Abdel Nasser

- the new military strongman in Egypt, emerged as the leader of the Arab Nationalist movement - he actively pushed for greater Arab Unity - facilitated small-scale attacks and blockades against Israel - promised an end to British and French economic dominance in the region

U.N. Resolution 181

- violence between the Jewish and Arab populations of the British Palestine Mandate went out of control - in 1947 the British pulled out and put the UN in charge - The U.N. came up with a plan - Resolution 181 - which it hoped to create neighboring Jewish and Arab states and establish Jerusalem as an international city

Axis of Evil & its impact

- when President Bush, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, named Iran as a member of his "Axis of Evil" - nations that had rogue WMD programs/ambitions and ties to terrorist groups and then invaded Iraq, the sentiment of the Iranian people swung quickly to the nationalist, conservative wing of Iranian politics, and they elected Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

European actions in the Arab World during World War II

- when WWII ended, Britain and France granted the Arab World independence - because the borders will stay the same and that the European-picked royal families would remain in power

U.S. involvement in everything above

- with Hussein still in power in Iraq, the Saudi monarchy invited the U.S. to station troops in the Kingdom, and American naval bases were expanded in Bahrain to safeguard shipping in the Persian Gulf - the PLO and Israel were deep into peace negotiations, facilitated by the U.S. - finally, strategic American ties to the military regimes in Egypt and Tunisia, as well as our long-standing alliances with monarchies across the region continued to grow.

Wahhabism

-Salafist movement in Saudi Arabia that dates back to the 1700's - helped the Al-Saud family consolidate its power over Saudi Arabia - In exchange for their help, the al-Saud family gave them control over education, religion, the role of women, and "morality" in the Kingdom - this is changing now - a new generation is coming to power and is taking out the wahhabists

Mohammad Mosadeq

1951 - became Prime Minister and almost immediately nationalized all British oil claims, infrastructure, and supplies in Iran. In retaliation, the British (with American support) instituted an international boycott of Iranian oil, which succeeded in bankrupting Mossaddegh's government.

Balfour Declaration

Britain "promises" to support a Jewish "homeland" in Palestine

1948 Arab-Israeli War

Israel captured western half of Jerusalem and Jordan captures eastern half of Jerusalem. Israel won the war, and Palestinian Arabs left without their own country

2nd Intifada

Israeli Prime Minister visited the Dome of the Rock and claimed it as Israeli territory; as a result, the Palestinians led suicide bombing attacks to which the Israelis built a security fence/wall around the West Bank

Yasser Arafat

Leader of PLO, and held position until death in 2005

PLO

Palestinian Liberation Organization which organized Arab Nationalist-inspired militant groups. PLO and its affiliate organization continuously attacked Israeli towns

Zionism

The Zionist Movement - a nationalist Jewish movement that wants to move Jews out of Europe and back to Palestine - begins buying land in Palestine - european Jews move there. Palestinian Arab peasants begin losing their farms to Jewish settlers - urban Arabs sell the land to the Jews, who want to live there.

McMahon-Hussein

To get Arab support against the Ottoman Empire, Britain issues the McMahon-Hussein Agreement, which "promises" to give Palestine to an Arab state

Operation Ajax

When he turned to the Soviet Union for support in 1953, the Shah, British Intelligence services, and the CIA orchestrated a coup ("Operation Ajax"), removing Mossaddegh from office and handing almost unlimited authority to the Shah, who was now a staunch American ally

Hamas

affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, was formed as the Islamist response, and vowed to continue the fight against Israel and against the "traitors" within the PLO