OM: Quiz #4

When sing a weighted moving average forecast, if I use a BLANK weight for ht most recent errand, I will have a forecast that is BLANK reflective of the recent data.

0.9, more

Given the set of running forecasts below, and the later actual resist, calculate the MAD.

15

Demand is 18,000 per year. Lead time = 2 months. Safety stock = 500. The reader point is:

18,000/12 = 1,500 * 2 = 3,000 + 500 = 3500

The sales for August, September and October are gibes as 9, 11, and 1 units. What is the 3 months moving average forecast for November?

9+11+1 = 20/3 = 6.6 = 7

ABC-Categorized inventory into three types. Which statement is correct?

A has larger $ value, smaller $ volume

In general, ROP and PR are a good fit for BLANK demand items

Dependent demand items

Given the set of running forecasts below, and the later actual results, calculate the MAD.

Difference between F and A then add them up and divide by the number of slots = 4

BLANK is the amount of inventory that minimizes inventory costs

EOQ

The annual demand is 1000. Holding cost per unit is $5. Ordering cost per unit is $4. What is EOQ?

EOQ = square root (2 * Demand * Order Cost/Holding Cost) = 40

BLANK is primarily using in a(n) BLANK manufacturing classification.

EOQ, Assembly Line

If demand is 60 units per month, the cost of holding one unit per year is $1, setup costs are $4.95, what is the EOQ? (Round the answer up)

EOQ= square root(2*(60*12)*4.95)/1) = 85

A grocery store is an example of BLANK supply chain

Efficient

Using the dat provided and and a = 0.20, what is the forecast for week 5? Assume D1 = F1.

F(t+1) = Ft+Alph(At-Ft) = 55.856

In exponential smoothing, the alpha factor...

Gives weight to the error from the pervious period

If Wendy's bought burger king, it is an example of BLANK integration

Horizontal

In forecasting, if I want a smoother forecast I should:

Increase the number of weeks in moving average forecast

R2 = measure of how much variation in the depend variable is explained by the indecent variable. When using this to evaluate a forecast...

Look for an R2 that approaches 1

MAPE stands for

Mean Absolute Percentage Error

MSE stand for

Mean Square Error

Every Friday I go to Kroger's -- before I go, I check the bathroom cabinet and determine how much toilet paper I need to bring my inventory back up to a minimum level. I am using...

Periodic Review

On the way home from UC vs. Tulas game, Kelley hears a "ding" and the car dashboard alerts her that she needs gas in the car. This could be compared with which inventory management system that we have discussed?

Reorder Point

ABC Company wants the inventory to not stock out at 95% (z=1.64) of the times. If the standard deviation during lead time is 5 units, the average daily demand is 1.9 and the lead time is 2 days then the ROP in units (round up the answer if needed).

Reorder Point = Demand During Lead Time + SS = 12

The annual demand is 1000. Weekly average demand is 200. Safety stock is 100. Lead time is 2 weeks. What is the reorder point?

Reorder Point = Demand during lead time + Safety stock = 200*2 = 400+ 100 = 500

The daily standard deviation of daily demand is 4 with a review period of 17 days and a lead time of 8 days. If the management sets the probability of not stocking out at 98% (z=2.05), what will be the safety stock? (Round the answer up if required)

SS = z* Standard Deciation during lead time and review period but first need to do the sigma T+L = --> 41

If the annual demand is 15,000 (50 weeks per year), a = 10 per week, lead time = 3 weeks. Use a confidence of 95% to calculate the safety stock (z=1.64)

SS = z* sigma of L = 1.64 times the square root of (3*(10)^2 = 28.4

BLANK forecasting seeks to fit a line through various data over time.

Simple Linear Regression

BLANK forecasting assumes the future will be extrapolated from the past, while BLANK forecasting relies upturn opinions and expertise.

Statistical, Qualitative

EOQ has an assumption of BLANK demand

Steady

Given the table, calculate a 3 months and 4 month moving average forecast. Using MSE as an evaluating took, which statement applies?

The MSE score indicates that the 3 month forecast is a better predictor. Create a table for 3 months & 4 months avg then subtract the demand & month avg to find the difference. Take the lowest one!

All of the following forecast are types of qualitative forecasts expect:

Time series

The sales figures along with the weights are given below. Calculate the weighted moving average forecast.

( (10*0.1) + (20*0.2) + (30*0.3) ) = 14

VMI is

Vendor Managed Inventory

Outsourcing and BLANK are opposites

Vertical Integration

In period review we always know

When to order

BLANK is an example of risk hedging supply chain

Delta buying oil refinery