Political Violence and Terrorism

Two Dimensions of Counter-Terrorism Policies

1. Repressive-Conciliatory 2. Discriminate-indiscriminate While the above two dimensions provide good insight, it is not the only way to consider counter terrorism: •Observed (public) versus private

When does suicide bombing work?

A tool for policy change against weaker/vulnerable governments Page notes some characteristics of states where these types of attacks occur, what are they? • Mostly democracies (Russia, really?) • Territorial goals of some king (Al Qaeda is the odd-ish one out here) • Works for small goals, not for big picture wins

Provocation

About winning community support, how? •Makes the target look evil by pushing it to overreact and overly crackdown against the target population •Recruit moderates by undermining trust in government Why it works •The trade-off between discriminate and indiscriminate violence •Governments would, in many cases, like to only use discriminate violence •But it's really hard and costly and requires more intelligence, specifically local intel •Type of response signals government concern about the target population and its (in)ability as a counter terrorist So why do they take the bait? •Big responses can and do work •Lack of options •Need to be seen doing something •Indiscriminate can be very visible even if not effective

Four Waves of Terrorism

Anarchists/Assassins, De-colonial Wave, Leftist Wave, Religious Wave

Oklahoma City Bombing

At the time, it was the largest terror attack in U.S. history (2nd now- largest domestic) April 19,1995: Semi-lone-wolf Timothy McVeigh detonates an explosive in a federal building in Oklahoma City •168 Government personnel (FBI mostly) and civilians are killed Ultimate expression of right-wing terrorism: McVeigh explicitly cites Waco and Ruby Ridge as his primary motivation Major Influences •Concerns about the "New World Order" •Rise in globalization •Feeling that the government was unrepresentative and over militarized •The relative loss of power/prestige for working class whites generally and him specifically It was discovered that he was overpaid in the army and they came to collect while already dealing with heavy debts

Intimidation

Audience •Internal community Signals •Power: Idea here is to contest the state's monopoly on power •Group shows that it is powerful and that the state is not •Group can punish any behavior it doesn't like •Signals that the state can't protect people Use? •Used to win control/support of the broader population •Government can't protect you, we're the only game in town •This tactic is found when dealing with more symmetric conflict than we're used to oOr in very optimistic lone-wolves (right-wing) •ISIS and their strategy of territorial control fits this tactic How to counter intimidation? •Most effective takes the form of clear-hold-build, but not always possible •Enter city, initial effort is clearing out insurgent fighters, building local infrastructure and intelligence

Ruby Ridge

Background Person of interest: Randy Weaver •White supremacist •Army veteran •Wife and four home-school children •All lived in an out-of-way cabin in Ruby Ridge, ID •Attended a few Aryan Nation rallies- where he got noticed by ATF ATF was interested in him on a charge of illegally modifying and selling weapons (Sawing off shotguns) A paperwork snafu led to him missing his court date and the U.S. Marshals were instructed to bring him in Weaver becomes increasingly suspicious/paranoid of his ability to receive a fair hearing and barricades himself and his family inside cabin Basic Timeline •21 August: Marshals secretly survey the property •Weaver's dogs start barking •Weaver's friend and son investigate •Shots exchanged: Son (14) and one U.S. Marshal are killed •22 August: Weaver is shot through the shoulder whilst examining his son's body •Wife killed by stray shot •10 day standoff ends with Weaver surrendering to authorities Results •Weaver was only convicted for not showing up to his original court date •All violence ruled in self-defense •U.S. gov't settles and pays the Weaver family 3 million in damages •The incident became a rally-cry for right-wing activists and was used to justify future terrorism against what is perceived as an increasingly heavy-handed and forceful federal government

Bargaining Model and Bargaining Range

Bargaining Range: As long as fighting is costly on some level to both sides, there will always exist an outcome that both sides find preferable to fighting Set of options that both sides prefer to fighting Any deal that lies in bargaining space is strictly better than the war payoff • What the exact deal is depends on who gets to make this game • We assume there is no repeated interaction in this game (more on next time) • As long as fighting/war is costly, alternatives to fighting that everyone would've preferred to do will exist What this Means • Any deal that lies in the bargaining space is strictly better than the war payoff • What the exact deal is depends on who gets to make the offers • We assume that there's no repeated interaction in this game • We can redraw this as a type of extensive form game

Totally Transnational

Based in one country because its where they had the resources, were invited etc •Attack across the world •A large set of countries where what they're trying to do is engage in attacks all around Reach a broader audience •Further internationalize the campaign •Force international audience to witness what you have to say •If you stick to being a domestic group, you stick to being a certain audience •Going transnational allows you to speak to a much larger audience and in turn brings in more actors against the target state •People from other countries being affected and more actors interested in bringing the conflict to and end •Drag larger audience into the conflict

Defining Terrorism

Basic elements • Violence or threat of violence • Politically motivated • Audience is bigger than the victim • Strategic and premeditated • Outside standard rules of conflict • Targets civilians and non-combatants • Conducted by any kind of group or individual

Benefits of Suicide Bombing

Big signal of resolve and destructive ability. • Nothing better says "we're not f&*#ing around" • Deliberately violate the few norms that terrorism had • Can't be deterred because they're already dying, what's left to threaten? • No escape plans • Flexibility • More lethal

Provocation

Bleed until bankruptcy •Terrorists can benefit in short and middle-run from large, over the top reactions to terrorism •Drain a governments resources by encouraging long, expensive campaigns (like invading Afghanistan) •Undermine a government and create general dissatisfaction

What separates Terrorism from Guerilla/Insurgent tactics?

Both are • Irregular- use of hit-and-run tactics Differences • Organization: Some cell-like structures w/ vertical hierarchies • Territorial control: Ambition or ability to control • Engagement Almost all insurgent groups use terror - reverse is not necessarily true Both: Shining Path (Peru), IRA (UK), ISIS/ISIL (Syria, Iraq), FARC (Colombia), Hezbollah Only Terror: KKK, Red Army Faction in Germany, Al Qaeda

Why was the end of the 19th century so ripe for terrorism?

Cheap communication and transportation is on the rise with daily newspapers, Telegraph, Railroad networks connect Europe, Widespread publicity is now possible "Propaganda by the deed" What does this mean? •Actions alone can signal to a wide audience •Resolve •Capability •Commitment

Cognitive Psychology

Cognitive Capacity: Mental ability (memory, language skills, attention) Cognitive Style: The rules for thinking and incorporating new information (bias, prejudices, and other quirks) An advantage of cognitive theories is that attribution error blame all the evils of the world on the opponent •Blame all the evils of the world on the opponent •Makes it easier to join up and fight Low cognition is related to •More absolute thinking •More racism •Ethnocentrism/xenophobia These are all traits that we associate with terrorism (especially lone-wolves and ethnic-nationalists) Novelty Seeking Behavior •Violence is great rush, where does this rush come from? •Fear of being caught •Doing something that is clearly illegal •Fighting for a cause •Social aspect •Sexual substitution (or complement) •Thrill seeking is normal young adult behavior What pushes some people further on this path than others? •Humiliation and Revenge: Most common explanation •Primary reason given by ex-IRA, Palestinian fighters •Motive frequently given for suicide attackers So revenge for what? •The humiliation of being second-class •Loss (or non-existence) of opportunities •Punish occupies/authority for violating rules/norms/deals •This desire to punish is related to a sense of community justice that backs a lot of social norms

Spoiling: Why is making peace so hard?

Commitment problems •Reputation concerns •Risks of cheating •Governments and moderates looking for any sign that the deal will fail •Everyone is afraid of being screwed, only takes a tiny push to collapse the entire thing The process •Violence from the extreme-wing undermines the little trust •Even when the moderates are actively tying to clamp down Government reads one of two things •Entire group is untrustworthy •Not worth the effort

Outbidding

Consolidate power/status over community Similar setup to spoiling: focus on moderate and extreme terrorists; Ex: Hamas • Two or more factions competing for dominate role • All groups want to be the community's champion, what benefits are there to this title? Typically, this fight is thought of as a contest between "zealots" and "sellouts"

Distinction between "demonstrative" and "destructive" terror, what is it?

Demonstrative: Signal ability with minimal casualties •Hostages, hijackings, announced explosions •Trying to minimize bad press and backlash •Munich was a failed attempt at this Destructive: Signal ability with many casualties •Balance between casualty impact and backlash

Psychopathy

Doesn't get any more individual than this Antisocial personality disorder (formally known as sociopathy): Knows right from wrong, just doesn't care; People with APD are drawn towards committing violence because they lack empathy and/or enjoy it Psychosis: Refers to people who can't distinguish right from wrong, Generally have a loose grip on reality Schizophrenics: People in this category suffer from auditory and visual hallucinations or delusions Ruling these out •Can't categorically say these aren't motives for some individuals, but doesn't seem to dominate. Some evidence that groups deliberately try to screen out psychotics •Lone-wolves may be more likely to show these traits, but even that's questionable if these disorders are the only issue Evidence for •Actors deliberately commit violence •Frequently against fellow citizens and the defenseless Evidence against •Terrorist groups have strong in-group social dynamics •Many groups enjoy strong community support •In many cases, they see themselves as soldiers •Goal is protection, not to get a fix

Thugs

Don't really seem like terrorists •Not political •Actively avoided publicity •What's the broader message and who's it for? •So what are they? A cult? Background •Active in India for about 600 years •Their origin story comes from Kali, The Hindu goddess of terror and destruction •Her story involves fighting a Hydra-like figure, but needed to be defeated without bleeding •Solution: Was to strangle it Traits •Terrorize individuals with outrageous tactics •Strangling victims in painful, drawn-out hangings •Always careful to not cut or otherwise bruise the victim though •Sacrifice to Kali (Dismembering the dead) •Meant Indian burial traditions could not be followed What makes them interesting? •Their internal rule system •A set of closely followed internal rules •Off-limit targets • Women • Lepers • Blind • Certain creative types •Such a list, seems like there may have been a un underlying political ideology •But you cant have politics without publicity •No idea what (if any) real ideology they had other than the practice of their sacrifices How they were defeated •The defeat of the Thugs reflects how knowledge of a group's philosophy or beliefs can be an effective counter-terrorism tool •A generational gap within the group •Older true-believers and younger, money-oriented types •Their split was exploited by British Authorities in India •The religious doctrine said that when Kai no longer required the order, she would destroy it. British able to turn the older generation against hate younger and the order collapses •Important lesson to remember when we return to counter-terrorism

Coordination Games

Driving in the right side of the road, no incentive to change to the left

Similarities between Timothy McVeigh and Dylann Roof

Dylann Roof and talk of the Race War •A direct descendent is Dylann Roof and AME Church shooting •Recent news that motivated: Trayvon Martin and Freddie Gray, Ascent of BLM These things led Roof to conclude that whiter power was eroding in the US, casts himself as the anti- John Brown for a new civil war; Plan was to start a race war (a common plan amount this crowd)

Terrorist Groups and Dimensions

Examples • IRA: Close, Temporal • FARC: Close, Temporal • PKK: Close, Temporal • ISIL: Close, Transformational • Taliban: Close, Temporal/Transformational Not a lot of transformational isolationists: hard to survive when goals are so far out there (too extreme) to build solid community support around it

Two Major Types of State-Run Terror

External •Sponsoring coups, backing groups within other states •Ex: U.S. sponsoring contras in Nicaragua, Iran and Syria sponsoring Hezbollah •Tools of statecraft •The latter is a common tool for weak states Internal • Large scale use or promotion of use of violence by a government against its own civilian population •Secret police/persecution •Repression, restriction of economic/political opportunities •Targeted killing •Genocide or Civil War As with the French Revolution it is frequently used as a tool for building national identity

Defining Terrorism: Issues and Background

Fear Inducing: The first thing to note, that of the above are focused on spreading fear or a feeling of insecurity Political: A person or group that uses "coercive intimidation" to further a political goal/cause Coercive intimation Ex: Hostages w/ policy demands, any Bond villain, Threat of violence

Individual Motives for Suicide Bombing

For the individual • Get to be a hero • Support to family • Revenge If the community supports this identity building: • Clear signal to the target that this is the new state of affairs

Benefits of State Sponsorship

Forming a terrorist group can be an expensive undertaking •Being located somewhere outside of the target can lower that start-up cost, why? •Makes it harder to be taken out in the early days of the dispute •Having sanctuary in a neighboring state provides ability to get things started •But leads to higher probability of bargaining failure •Perhaps easier to create pro-rebel media •Diaspora communities are helpful •Actually being relocated. Initial mobilization becomes easier •Hit and run becomes much easier; In order for the target to retaliate, it must invade another country...really big deal Ex: Consider the Israel invasions into Lebanon in the 1980s and again in the 2000s (Neither case went as well as Israel wanted)

What aspects of the 1990's contributed to the rise of lone-wolf terror in the US?

Globalization •Decline of white working class •Rise of multiculturalism •Fall of USSR leaves lots of US to question military and state apparatus (what it could be used for in post-Soviet era, is it still needed?) The end of the Soviet Union and the rise of the "New World Order" •NAFTA, Rise in Globalization, Clinton presidency, reorganization of unipolar system •These things were all seen as threats by the fringe right-wing Why did it continue into the 2000's and present? Ruby Ridge and Waco: These two events laid the foundation for a wave of anti-state, right-wing violence carried out against the United States government.

Dimensions of Terrorism

Goals: Temporal - Transformational Temporal- Negotiable goals here compromise is possible Transformational: Non-negotiable goals that require some fundamental transformation of the local, regional, or global system Community: Close- Isolated Close: Lots of community support, leads to financial support and places to hide. Easy to fundraise and recruit. Community supports the goals, if not the methods Isolated: No strong community ties. Frequently use crime to fund. More likely to fail.

The Rise of Hamas

Hamas rose to prominence during the 1990s as a spoiler to Oslo • Signal to Israeli government and people that Yasir Arafat was either unable or unwilling to clamp down on them The negotiating Arafat is either untrustworthy or not worth the effort •Fall of Shimon Peres and rise of Benjamin Netanyahu shows that it worked

Suicide as a Tool for Spoiling and Outbidding

Hamas used attacks to spoil Oslo and Wye and rolled this into a strategy of outbidding by the year 2000 • Since 2000, Palestinian support for suicide attacks against Israel, way up Hamas is the major leader of these operations. Designed to drive a wedge between Fatah and Israel, but to make Fatah look like sell outs - Challenge's Arafat's monopoly on Palestinian force The Timeline • The 1990s were a time of cautious optimism in Palestine. • Oslo agreements, President Clinton, two-state in sight • Support for suicide attacks and Hamas at lowest points (20% and 12%, respectively)

Domestics Who Go Abroad

Harder to attack a group that has to attack an actual barrier Ex: PLO camps in Lebanon and retreating back behind the borders to avoid the cost of retaliation; IRA camps in Ireland and safe haven and camps in the Ireland side of the boarder (Staging group to avoid British authority)

What advantages are there for re-locating?

Harder to destroy and more resources (lower strat up costs) • Resources • Safe Haven • Increase target's retaliation cost • Increase survival chances

What disadvantages are associated with re-locating?

Higher probability of bargaining failure • Leads to more violence • Another party involved in bargain, commitment problems • Informational concerns when if you are located in another country (hard to gather information, surveillance about how capable group actually is even more uncertain) Host interests don't always align • The host's dilemma: These things seem great for the group, but hosts... • Want to support • Don't want to be retaliated/invaded Often times this leads states to... • Suppress the group • Limit activities • Provide intel against the group to the target: Ex: Pakistan and the JeT, Ex: Syria and the PKK Carter gives us some analysis here of how these things shake out • Safe havens are short-run beneficial to groups (prevent dissolution) • Long run, they're not helpful • But these results mostly refer to states capable or willing to crack down. They're not the only game in town

What were the Turner Diaries?

It is a racist, anti-Semitic tone that was (probably still is) very popular among the fringe right-wing Revolution against the US gov't by white revolutionaries •Revolution in response to laws that confiscate weapons and criminalize white self-defense as a hate crime (US in this world is run by Jewish insiders, btw) •Revolution starts as terrorism against FBI and a series of assassination •Rebels are able to seize nukes and this whole thing evolves into nuclear race war •Whole thing is ridiculously hate-filled against Jews, people of color, homosexuals, etc. Three major aspects •Suggested idea of dystopian future w/ state apparatus clamping down and forcing multiculturalist world on US •Race war and contains detailed plan for attack on FBI building in DC (used for Timothy NcVeigh bombing)

Terrorism as Rational?

It's easy for politicians, media and other idiots to write-off terrorism as the actions of psychopaths and crazies- Not that easy Overwhelming research shows that these are rational actors with rational goals Shockingly effective at making change, a true "weapon of the weak": A single individual can make an enormous change and shock the system Easily observable: Clear projection of power and ability to inflict harm, communicates that nothing is safe if you take out the supposedly most protected person

Strategies of Terror

Kydd and Walter: Five strategies for sending this signal • Attrition • Intimidation • Provocation • Spoiling • Outbidding

Domestic Terror in the US

Left-Wing • Weather Underground, Earth Liberation Front Right-Wing (Strong racism, anti-gov't, conspiracy theory, survivalist) •KKK, Aryan Nations, National Alliance

The Transnationalization of Terrorism

Like the anarchists, the PLO were good at spreading •Resources •Technology •Intelligence •Training All over Europe groups turned to PLO for guidance •The collaboration with European communists went both ways, and the PLO was able to pull off many impressive attacks over the years •During the 1970s and early 1980s, these became increasingly common (i.e. Munich Olympics)

Exporters

Message/Attention- Kidnapping at Munich Even though the immediate short term reaction was negative, people were talking about it and began to transitioning to listening to their cause and internationalized the issue between Israel and Palestine Ex: PLO (and Domestics) ISIS role in radicalizing abroad recruits •Not as good as a fit •Getting individuals abroad to contact attacks on their behalf •Using the internet to seek out individuals to contract out attacks

What advantages for exporting transnational?

Message/attention (Lesson from Munich) • Even though short-term reaction was hugely negative against Palestinian cause, people began to talk about it (internationalized issue in a way that it hadn't been before)

Anarchist/Assassin Wave

Non-state anarchists and revolutionaries (Russians, Irish, etc.) •Society was stifled and stagnated by guilt and rules •Need to knock it all down to start over •Liberate humanity from conventions and guilt •Similar to other starts •Dramatic action will stimulate people •Over response will mobilize them to revolt Like the assassins-they wanted to be caught, which enables them to have a public forum; Mildly effective, didn't destroy the system but reforms were offered Russian anarchists were the first group to offer their skills and experience to others; exporting brand to other states Why then? • World connected in a way, hadn't been before

What do terrorists expect to happen from their attacks?

Not about military victory (contrast with insurgents) • Provocation • Spoiling • Outbidding

Radicalizing Effect: Exposure to "Injustice"

Omar Seikh (from the Daniel pearl execution and others) •Videos depicting the killing of Bosnian Muslims Dylann Roof and other right-wing lone-wolves •Perceived evidence of the fall of White dominance •Googled black on white crime and began his racist radicalization Both cases (and many others) •Individuals seeing (real or perceived) injustices against their "people" or "community" •Desire to avenge it first •Desire to initiate an uprising second •View themselves and their communities as victims •Contribute to the common defense

Signaling Models, What is a signal?

One actor takes an action to show another what type of group they are (use costly actions to send signal that they are a strong actor)

Assassins

Operated across the Middle East (Iran-Iraq-Syria-Turkey) "Purifying" Islam •Used violence to send a message to the broader community •Very similar to Zealots in many ways •Attack prominent figures •Do it in a very public setting, holy days - maximize publicity •Use of dagger (like the Zealots they were famous for it) Quite a few differences too •Only assassins •Goal was to get caught, "no escape" •Martyrdom was key here •The Role of Martyrdom •Escape was not allowed for members •Goal was to demonstrate their resolve and the strength of their beliefs •How, they might well think, can you purify Islam if people don't know you're serious? •This seriousness and conviction led many to think they were stoned out of their gourds (Hash-ashins) •Religious sacrifice - guaranteed seat to paradise Where did they come from? •The Assassins were an off-shoot from Shia Islam •They saw their goals as aiding in the emergence of the Mahdi (a Messiah type) who will aid them in a holy war How it Works •Assassins had an exceptional organization structure that crossed the boundaries of many governments •Mountain fortresses where they took in travelers, refugees, orphans, the destitute and trained them •Effectively, the first case we have a quasi-state that sponsors and outsources transnational terrorism •Trained people for the long-game •Train them to gain trust, infiltrate a household/inner-circle •Build relationships and then commit the act when the moment is right • Rooted in Islamic Tradition Benefits •Cheap way to make a splash •Even more so in the old days, when leaders were killed you might see entire armies disband, courts go into disarray •Avoid harming the broader population, good PR •No exit plan for them, makes it easier to plan Cons •Sometimes you kill a popular figure, really bad PR •Easy to write them off as nuts •Community isolation •Finally, after a good two-century run, they were destroyed by Mongol invasion

Sociological: National Culture Explanations

People are different depending on where they're from Collectivist •Identity is firmly linked with the in-group and against an out-group. In-group morals don't apply to out-groupers. Individualist •We're all people with personal goals. Harder to relax morals on other people

What is counter-terrorism?

Policies designed to either prevent or deter terrorism •Goal is to make terror either more costly or less beneficial

Pooling Versus Separating Equilibria

Pooling: all types take the same actions, no real information being exchange. Signals are not uninformative...Anybody with the ability to send a signal, sends the same signal (cannot differentiate) Separating: types take different actions, can discuss things that can contribute to learning; Signals are informative...If I see someone conducting an action, I can infer something about them

Lone-Wolf Terror: What is a lone wolf?

Prepares and commits attack alone, may be influenced by ideology and beliefs of an external group, self-radicalization

Game Theory: Types of Games

Prisoner's Dilemma, Coordination Game, Bargaining Model and Bargaining Range

Three Reasons for Conflict

Private Information •Strength and resolve •I know what my costs of fighting are, but you don't, forces you to guess •War occurs when the government is trying to screen out revels by making offers that only weal rebels would accept •War is the unfortunate by product of the screening process •Violence is the process by which governments sort out the types of groups they are facing •Governments don't want to make good deals to weak groups, war is how groups prove that they aren't weak •Why don't weak rebels admit to being weak? Vice versa? •Strong gets the best offers, everyone wants to appear strong (incentives to misrepresent) •The only way a government knows if you are strong is through fighting Commitment Problems •Even if you sign deal, one side must have incentives to unilaterally change the deal Issue Indivisibility •Yes/No Issues, right of return (Ex: Holy sites, cities) •Why can't these issues just be compensated by giving in on other things?

What makes for a good sanctuary (according to Salehyan)?

Refugees •Existing grievance •Sense of solidarity •Not a lot of other options Rival State •Provides a low cost way to hit your opponent everyone wins •Becomes more costly for target to fight back •Even harder to monitor or gather intelligence Weak States •Free reign, host doesn't have what it takes to boot them •Perhaps less good for the revels than a sympathetic host

Repressive-Conciliatory

Repression (particularly indiscriminate) is seldom effective for provocation reasons. Some evidence that targeted repression is effective. •Conciliatory policies can either encourage or disarm groups, current evidence suggests the latter dominates, but hard to assess •Indiscriminate-conciliatory is very good at the latter, discriminate conciliatory encourages terrorism

Motives for Terrorism: The Three R's of Terrorism

Revenge •Idea that if you are willing to engage in political violence, personal wrong is a strong motivator •Closely tied to idea that you or community has been humiliated, illicit response Reaction •Strategies of provocation •Means you've done something worth responding to, want to trigger over the top responses that push community closer to cause Renown •Terrorism relies on being reported on, idea that being recognized generates legitimacy for your actions Individual renown: •Herodotus: want to be remembered/famous •Hero motives: be the savior or protector Group renown: Can't get what you want if no one knows who you are (Lesson of Munich)

What kinds of things could be done by individuals, communities, or the state to identify and prevent this violence?

Role of media is a little scary, right? •Old media (press) is willing to report (provide oxygen) and new media is passive in radicalization •Monitoring online communities (Youtube, Reddit; On the individual level, report comments

Key Events to the rise of Right-Wing Terror

Ruby Ridge, Waco •Idea that gov't is targeting white nationalists •Becomes rallying cry for community

Outbidding Background

Similar setup as spoiling: focus on moderate and extreme terrorists •Two or more factions completing for dominate role •All groups want to be the community's champion, what benefits are there to this title? What's the difference between zealots and sellouts? Same as moderate and extreme Zealots •Strong defenders •Less willing to compromise •High risk, high reward Sellouts •Lower risk, lower reward •More peace-loving, more willing to compromise •Think about in bargaining framework and cost of war The Choice •The population has to choose which side represents it •Principle-agent problem. Explain and discuss •Attacks are used to signal to the population •Signaling to the population, but signal what?

Sociological

Social Learning Theory, Frustration- Aggression/Oppression, Relative Deprivation Theory, National Culture Insights •Exposure to violence leads to violence •Revenge and frustration Major Shortcomings •Major cases of uniform treatment, different results •Not great at explaining the privileged.

A Spectrum of Counter-terrorism

States have lots of possible policies to consider, so how to choose which to use? Things to consider when allocating money: 1. Effectiveness 2. Cost-effectiveness 3. Visibility 4. Blowback/provocation 5. Who is the target? 6. Who is the audience?

How do terrorists justify their tactics?

Terrorist don't think they are bad people How can they justify their tactics? •A tactic of last resort, "We tried legit politics, no one listened." No other strategy is available •"We'd do legit war, but we'd be wiped out in an instant." It works, if only to call attention to cause •"Can you blame me?" Collective guilt •"Citizen are responsible for the actions of their governments" •Particularly against democracies Everybody does it...its war and we're going to fight/protect it

How might these apply to "incel" violence against women?

The "forever alone" crowd (sometimes referred to in media accounts as "incel") is really into advocating either avoiding or harming women •Striking increase in Nazi language and symbols (memes of Nazi's flame throwing at all of the above targets) Political motive •Disempower women, broadly, remove them from positions of political, social, economic or academic power •Audience is bigger than the victim •Lone-wolf violence (threat or actualized) against women is meant to coerce the broader female population •Comments by supporters reinforce that idea Tools of the movement •The meme is a powerful radicalization tool for a few good reasons •Can hide behind the label of joke/satire •Medium appears harmless because they can be tucked between actually funny memes •Easy to share and create •Differing sites can have differing levels, so as far as you go deeper you're gradually radicalized •Belittle opponents, while casting themselves as victims (graphic)

Zealots

The Zealots are probably the oldest group that we would recognize as terrorists •Political goals •Attention seeking •Appeals to a community •Huge asymmetry - reliance on weapons on the weak Background •The primary goal was to expel Roman governance and Greek settlements in Judea Major Tactics •Stabbing (closely identified with daggers - Sicarii) •Assassinations of prominent figures (Particularly those religious figures that were seen as pro-Roman collaborators) •Generally anyone that was against using violence against the Romans Need to generate attention - How do you do that in the 1st Century? •Broad daylight killings •Crowded settings •Religious events/holidays - when people would gather Not limited to assassinations •Hostage taking •Promoting a particular take on Judaism •Push religious leaders towards preaching their take •Push landowners into reforms that match their views on Biblical distribution Would engage Roman forces directly - Insurgent/terrorist overlap •Did not follow military conventions of the time •Famous stories of them killing troops under a truce flag Strategies •Pioneered strategies of provocation •The use of violence (particularly terrorism, but anything that's big or outrageous) in order to solicit an over-reaction from the other side •The idea is make the central government and citizens loyal to it (Roman Empire and Greek Settlers) appear harsh, cruel, and unhinged in order to polarize the population into taking sides •The massacre of Roman forces under the truce flag had this effect in spades, sufficient to provoke such a reaction The Backlash •Greek settlers in Juda (the primary source for local Roman troops) responded with pogrom style violence throughout the province •Forces Jews to side with the Zealots as only source of protection •Rhetorically disarms peaceful, moderate Jewish leaders and people •Benefits Zealots in two major ways •Rally population/community behind them •Fits with messianic doctrines (benefitting the above) •The Messianic Element From the Zealot perspective, this was a dark period for the Jewish community •Roman military occupation •Increasing acceptance of Roman laws, culture, and customs •Goal was to help trigger the End of Days •Trigger catastrophes •Violence responses through provocation •Increasingly, the community was willing to interpret these signs as harbingers of a messiah - lots of claimants emerge during this era The First Uprising •The Zealots were able to polarize Romans/Greeks and Hews into such frenzied camps that they were able to instigate an actual popular uprising •So many groups/lone wolves have this as their mission statement •Zealots one of the only groups to ever pull it off Legacy •Two additional uprisings would appear in the successive years, but the lasting effect here is that the Zealots were unable to remove the Romans •In fact, these actions triggered a major wave in the Jewish Diaspora •The 2nd Temple was destroyed and Jerusalem was ruined- many exiles or sold into slavery •An inauspicious ending for a group that would be the blueprint for asymmetric conflict for centuries

Waco

The second major event reinforced this idea, but was perhaps more justified on the gov't side Siege of a compound of Branch Davidians (A particular off shoot from Seventh Day Adventists. These are people that think the end of the world is due any day now) The Players •This particular cult/sect was led by David Koresh •Came to federal attention under rumors of a few things • Stockpiling weapons • Explosives • Fathering children with women as young as 12 •ATF can finally act on this after receiving tip from a UPS driver, who saw explosives when he delivered a package at compound The Siege •Koresh got tipped off about the upcoming raid and barricaded him and everyone else there inside •Massive siege (51 days) before FBI storms the compound •FBI begins deploying tear gas, Branch Davidians open fire. After a few hours, three actual fires (origin unknown) break out in the compound Result •Over 80 members of the Branch Davidians were killed (age 1-61) during the entire operation •12 members were convicted on various weapons and manslaughter charges

The Public-Private Trade Off

The trade-off we consider today is between observable and unobservable (from the perspective of the voting public) counter-terrorism. Imagine you're a government, what sorts of things do you weight when making this choice? 1. Costs and effectiveness of both 2. Political audience needs to see something 3. Adaptability or substitution (public policies tend to be more tactic-specific) 4. Ability to target a specific audience 5. Ability to pocket/divert unobserved resources

Attrition

Think of this as the most basic signal, targeted at the enemy and designed to show •Power •Resolve Groups use attrition tactics to demonstrate their ability to inflict future harm/deaths against the government •Strength through ability to endure and inflict while enduring •Inflict and survive until government offer concessions When is attrition likely to work? •Target has low interest in the issues •Target is constrained in its response (ex: transnational group) •Target is sensitive to costs Reputation and Attrition •If governments agree to come type of concession, then this is going to be some type of reflection the governments own type •Offering concessions to any terrorist group reveals the government's type (dovish) How to avoid or minimize this reputation damage? •Endure longer conflicts in order to make them pay for each inch of land Strategy works best when groups can •Get the target to respond with big, expensive counter-terror •A very expensive security apparatus becomes a way of life for the target •Coercing the state into spending more and more increases the benefit (cost to the state) of each attack

Spoiling

Two factions Moderates •Willing to accept compromise Extremists •Less willing or unwilling Moderates want to make a deal with governments - Spoiling occurs by driving a wedge between them What make's this work? •Similar to provocation, but to moderate terrorists not moderate citizens •Specially it's about showing the government that the moderates are untrustworthy •This collapses the peace deal and forces the moderates back into the fold Ex: Rabin and assassinator, Arafat and Peace Movement v. PLO

Freudian (Pschyoanalytic)

Two things motivate us in this life •Sex (Eros) and Death (Thanatos) These root all psychological problems •In particular, unresolved conflicts about early sexual fantasies are responsible for individual issues/problems Identity Struggle (Erikson) •Political violence is used to establish a unique identity •This becomes an issue when responding to an over-controlling upbringing •With too much structure, the individual needs an outlet for establishing self •Sometimes that outlet is violence, need someway to assert yourself and build identity (longer you go without doing that, more violent the outburst) Narcissism •The result of an injury to self-psychology •Not enough love as a baby/child causes damage to an individual's sense of self-worth. Called a narcissistic injury Two forms •Unresolved infantile fantasy •Poor/unformed image of parents The result of these injuries is either •An inflated sense of self-worth (be the leader) •A desire to merge with a strong leader (support a strong presence) Terrorist Violence •The transferring of the rage/pain of the narcissistic injury into a victim (seen a s little more than an object for holding the injury) Paranoia •In the eyes of the paranoid, violence (terrorism) is a self-defense act •Threats (real or otherwise) get projected onto targets •This provides insight into why many appear normal prior to the action Apocalyptic •Terrorists, in this framework, are characterized by •Absolutist morals/values •Weak adults with poorly formed identities •Together these lead the prospective terrorist to embrace big-figures (Messianic-types) •See themselves as soldiers in a fight against broader world/population headed by X •In many cases, goal can be to help trigger an end-of-world war or event Strengths •Individual level motives •Many can seem appealing when we think about people Weaknesses •Not scientific, some seem a little weird •Hard to imagine having anything that could confirm/deny these approaches in a meaningful way

Sociological: Social Learning Theory

Violence is the result of witnessing violence and repeating it Terrorism is a trap •Little ones see violence and destruction and it's all they know •Similarly, there is the issue of learning violence in schools and the Internet •The use of religious schools to spread hardline doctrine is nothing new •Frequently used in nationalist/ethnic conflicts What it does well •Fits with many interview stories of why individuals join •Violence begets violence is a story that makes sense •Fits with long-running conflicts •Not only the origin of Bosnian genocide, but also people responding to it What it doesn't do well •These cycles end, sometimes abruptly •Everyone in these communities gets the same treatment (exposure to violence and mayhem) •But only a small fraction get radicalize

What is the difference between terrorism and war?

War •Rules of conflict, combatants must obey •Do not target non-combatants (civilians) •Treatment of prisoners •Respect of diplomats and embassies •Two state actors •Massive asymmetry (requires differing tactics, fair to hold them to rules) Terror •Non-combatants are fair game •Organization hierarchy may not be as clear •Non-state v. state •Carries a lot of baggage, so much so that a bunch of other names appear o Freedom fighters o Revolutionaries o Self-defense leagues o Vengeance societies o Movements/Utopians Civil War or Guerilla • Non-state v. state • Non-combatants highly discouraged from being targeted

Media and Terrorism

What is renown for? • Ability to draw media attention to get the message to a broader audience, This in turn is dependent on the media/press and their willingness to cover Why is this troubling for democracies? • Free press is integral to democracy, can't stop this Often said that attention is like oxygen for terrorists. • And like oxygen, they don't usually have trouble getting it

Dilemma in Counter-Terrorism Policies

What is the government's dilemma in choosing (un)observable counter-terrorism? •A type of principal-agent problem (define) What's the issue? •Public needs to see something, demands a certain level of visible spending. What's the issue? •Inefficiently high

Hostage Situations - Dominate the Cycle for Days/Weeks/Months

What makes a hostage situation so attractive for the group? • Duration and type of coverage • Dominates the news for days/weeks/months • Gov't looks either heartless or cowardly • Press becomes so desperate for a new angle on it, that they'll give free air time to the group and surrogates in order to one up the competition • Groups even go so far as to employ media consultants • Some of the most valuable members, because they help dominate and control the news message • Get their own version of events out there

Online Radicalization

What should concern us all is the role of online radicalization here (and elsewhere) •A new tool for creating lone-wolves •ISIS uses tools like this to great effect but we all know that's their tactic •What makes Roof different, and more scary, is the idea of "self-radicalization" •General consensus is that Roof formed his views by consuming online content only...no real-life social elements pushed into this

Compellance

What's the "Compellance dilemma"? • Harsh punishments would push the Host to suppress • Targets can't credibly threaten and don't use them • Target states sometimes face a tradeoff where they want to compel a host to act, but they don't want to destabilize the host The gist here is that Hosts won't suppress without punishment because it's not worth it (too weak), but Target can't punish because expansion threat is too real

"Incel" Community and the Media

What's the role of media here? •Posting media is 21st century phenomena •Wide audience and tailored message •Normalizes certain attitudes, while pushing people deeper •Both seem to share a desire for "punishment" and "hero status", Where do these fit with out three R's? •Revenge against perceived slight, that all women hate them and they are encroaching upon their ability to be male, the perks of being a white male •Renown, being a hero to members of their community What psychological or sociological motives that we looked at before fit these cases? •Freudian, unfulfilled sexual desires •Narcissism, cognitive biases, where you attribute any sort of perceived slight towards a boogeyman(woman)

Motivations of Terrorism

Who do people assassinate (or attempt)? Psychological: •Herostratus: Basic idea that you want to be famous, do that by killing someone famous "I want to be famous" - Hinckley's attempt on President Reagan •Personal revenge: Personally slighted by an individual, no broader political motive; "this guy screwed me" -Assassination of President Garfield Political: •Want to undermine or destroy a political/economic system - anarchists, anti-capitalists, etc. (McKinley, Lincoln) •Rage against specific actions/policies and/or a display of power (attempt on Thatcher, actual assassinations of Sadat, Rabin, RFK)

Cooperative v. Non-Cooperative Game

• Cooperative- incentives align, both groups want to come to agreement • Conflictual- incentives don't always align, have incentives to lie (will be costly)

Many governments will label captured terrorists as ordinary criminals, why?

• Designed to delegitimize political message, goals, motives • No expectation to negotiate with criminals • No special provisions on prisoner treatment So, are they just criminals? • Comes down to motive

Why do/did some groups (say IRA) avoid suicide terror?

• Do hunger strikes count? • Tried once, but the community backlash was not good • Also not a volunteer

How does cheap communication benefit conflict/peace?

• Easy to transfer money into country (remittance) • Easy to exchange information • Cultural exchange • Twitter effects on collective organizing • More non-violent outlets In the pre-internet world, terrorists' messages were either •Underground communications •Limited print papers •Books •Covert radio/TV broadcasts •Filtered through mass media Now • The Internet provides for layers/targeting •Groups can adjust message depending on a particular website's audience •Start easy and work them up to the hard stuff •Tailored messaging w/ levels of support and language cues •Reach sympathetic or like-minded people no matter where they are •Disguise the message in more polite parts of the web •Hezbollah used to sell a video game online to get people hooked

Is this a terrorist group?

• Goal One: Is the goal political or not? • Goal Two: Is the act itself the goal? To send a message? Who is the intended audience?

Rational Approach to Terror: Why is it that we see terrorism in poor countries, but terrorists tend to be privileged, middle-class types?

• Groups only take the best • When the economy is bad, highly skilled/educated people can find work as a terrorist • Groups want these people, hire them •Terrorist groups chose the best available applicants and discard the rest •Avoid the poor/under-educated •Not because they don't show up and want to fight •Because the group can do better without them •Conditional on an ongoing terrorist dispute, economic downturns are associated with an increase in violence

How can these three reasons be overcome?

• Guarantees (Observation, political power sharing, military integration) • Regional autonomy - local police forces • A large or small number of observers?

Spoiling

• Multiple terrorist groups competing for one community's support • Spoils peace by engaging in terrorism in order to undermine potential agreements, allows group to flex muscles

Categories of Motives

• Psychopathy • Sociological • Freudian (Psychoanalytic) • Cognitive Psychology

Big News Items and Terrorism

• Suicide bombings • Assassinations • Hostage situations (particularly good for long-term press coverage) • Property damage

De-colonial Wave

• World leaders (esp. Wilson) beginning to discuss self-determination, homelands • Inspiring overthrow of colonial overlords • Major states work out after WWII, British and French in particular, couldn't afford to maintain and defend their respective empires Ex: Palestine and the British

Leftist Wave

•Backlash to US led coalition, militarization after Cold War, policies towards Israel and Vietnam Two goals • Revolution • Vietnam Solidarity • PLO became major leader in this, first time you see exchange of training/resources (brought attention to the struggle) The major legacy of the left-wing era • Hijacking as a weapon of the weak • Collaboration among terrorist groups • As well as collaboration with states • States can win •Enhanced counter-terrorism and community isolation as tools

Mujahideen Defeat of Soviet Union

•Defeated a super power •Arming and training of religious fighters •Rise of bin Laden What were the issues in the Al Qaeda-United States conflict? •Arab-Israel Issues: Palestinian statehood, failure of Oslo, U.S. support of Israel. First and Second Intifadas •US military presence in Saudi Arabia •US support for Egypt's regime (crackdown on Islamic parties- Muslim Brotherhood) Al Qaeda in the 1990s •Early 1990s bin Laden leaves Saudi Arabia (loss of citizenship) and spends time building network and resources in Sudan •Period of fundraising, training, and integrating groups across many (50+) countries •1995: Bin Laden expelled from Sudan and accepted in Afghanistan •Able to ramp up production, leads to 9/11

Why do rational, strategic actors/groups use assassination as a tactic?

•Effective and observable •A true "weapon of the weak": A single individual can make an enormous change and shock the system (cheap, do not need large apparatus)

Three Types of Transnational Terror

•Exporters •Domestics who go abroad •Totally transnational

The French Revolution

•First example of state-run terror w/ Robespierre and "Reign of Terror" •Sowing insecurity about "Enemies of the Revolution": A method for the state to weed out perceived enemies and disrupt possible coordination Three Important Legacy Points •Violence conducted on behalf of a community that may or may not have been on board (That the revolution turned in and consumed itself suggests that community support waned) •First ideological terror. Up to now, it was entirely religious terrorism •Still has a large social element, but now reorganizing society has different motive •A political crusade against an "out group" became the state's primary motive •This combines elements we saw in the Assassins and the Zealots •A new scale of violence against the target group

The Curse of State Sponsorship

•Harder to repress beyond the frontier •Police and military action is out (without big cost) •Surveillance becomes harder •Human intelligence is harder •Asymmetrical information is greatly increased Which aspect of bargaining failure is at work here? •Private information problems are now enhanced harder to spy/verify claims about rebel strength •Commitment problems are now enhanced as well

Five Categories of Political Violence

•Individuals (Assassins, Lone-wolves) •Subnational (Groups) •Transnational (Groups) •State Terror 1 (Secret, Clandestine) •State Terror 2 (Genocide and Eliticide) Eliticide: Systematic killing of elite members of society

Religious Wave

•The 1979 Iranian revolution was a turning point in world history •Rise of Islamic government, overthrow of a secular pro-western dictator •Flaunting American power •This new era marks the return of religious terrorism •Hasn't been a player in the last 200 years Motivation/Goals •Purify the religion •Remove the secular autocrats in charge •Establish an Islamic State/Empire •Palestinian liberation •US withdraws from the region Why the revolution mattered •Creation of legitimate, religious gov't •Funding of movements in other countries - export the revolution (tool for weak states as well) •Highlights ability to win against America •Same year as the start of another blow to the global order Major events? •Iranian Revolutionary • Beirut Bombing • Soviet Invasion • Definitive rise of suicide terrorism

Sociological: Frustration Aggression/Oppression

•Violence occurs when you're mad as hell •A perfectly normal response when you're pushed around and want to strike back •Easy and visible way to express grievance to system Particularly common explanation, a release valve on •No access to politics •No economic prospects •No end in sight •Occupying state •Second-class citizenry The good •It makes sense and fits with what people talk about The bad •Everyone gets the same treatment •But what if people just have different breaking points •Can still work as an individual explanation •Doesn't explain the mass of privileged people who get into terror

Sociological: Relative Deprivation Theory

•Wants to link poverty to terrorism •Not just poverty though •People are mad, but not just because they're poor •Because they know and can see that others have so much more •Constantly feel looked down on by a large audience of haves The good •There are some links of inequality to political/social unrest The bad •Explains some motives, but still leaves out a large number of privileged participants