Reasoning and Decision-Making (Exam 3)

Which of the 4 cars is best? -given either 4 or 12 pieces of information about each car -think for 5 min or no thinking Results: 1. who made the poorer decision? a) when thinking... b) when not thinking...

1. a) when you have time to think with 12 choices = too many choices = less optimal decision b) no time to think, 4 is better

Deductive Reasoning *Conditional reasoning*: If p, then q. 1. easy to ___ the antecedent 2. easy to __ the consequent (conclusion) 3. hard to __ the consequent 4. hard to __ the antecedent 5. people misinterpret it as if q then p

1. affirm 2. deny 3. affirm 4. deny

Decision Making 1. *Noncompensatory models*: A decision strategy that rejects ___ that have negative attributes without considering their positive attributes Ex: Elimination by aspects 2. *___ search* - limited capacity to evaluate many alternatives often prevents people from selecting the best alternative and settling for a good alternative (satisfiser) 3. ex. value the price of car..if it goes over $500, won't consider it...no matter how great a) problem?

1. alternatives 2. satisfising 3. prob: might end up with something less optimal bec you eliminated alternatives (what if the best car was just $10 over your price limit0

created card game: select card -2 decks: net gain (C & D) -2 decks: net lost (A &B) 1. patients with NO damage use their physiological anticipatory response and BX change! = chose from net gain 2. patients w/ lesions do not show __ response BUT ___ is high for net loss a) however, they continue to choose from which decks? 3. SO. anticipatory anxiety helps decision making by avoiding negative outcomes

1. anticipatory; anxiety a) NET LOSS

Dan Gilbert: Why We Make Bad Decisions 1. when we __ one thing to another, it changes it's value 2. we believe __ is better and NOW 3. Changing when you get something makes a difference (comparison) a) inability to integrate __

1. compare 2. more 3. time

"If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side." Which cards do you need to turn over to determine if this statement is true? People suck at conditional reasoning 1. most people use __ __ to look for evidence to support it 2. instead, you need to prove that something isn't right

1. confirmation bias

Availability Heuristic 1. __ or __ salient events *overestimated* 2. ex. How fearful are you of dying in a car crash vs plane crash? more plane bec 1. level of emotion, imagine plummeting to earth 2. we don't hear about car crashes in news bec not interesting, we hear about plane crashes = more ferquent = more available in mind

1. distinctive; emotionally

Decision Making *Expected value:* The average value, as determined by combining the value of events with their probability of occurrence You are asked to decide whether you should play the following game: "You will be allowed to roll a die. If a 6 appears, you win $4. If any of the other five numbers appear, you win nothing. It costs you $1 every time you play. Should you participate?" 1. An __ would calculate the expected value and see if it's positive or negative

1. economist

Deductive Reasoning Other problems in reasoning 1. __ __: To test a rule, it is necessary to find situations that would falsify it a) try to __ the evidence 2. __ __ - people's tendency to seek information that confirms their beliefs 3. __ __: What people know to be true interferes with their ability to assess validity 4. Why are people bad? a) inability to process info b) preexisting beliefs and confirmation

1. falsification principle 2. confirmation bias 3. belief bias

Problem: Imagine that the US is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. If *Program A* is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If *Program B* is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved. Which program do you favor? 1. example of which effect? 2. 72% picked - the calculated expected value is the same 3. people like __ numbers> probabilistic *when framed in terms of lives saved* (don't want to take risks)

1. framing effect 2. A concrete

*Inductive reasoning*: Premises are based on observation of one or more specific cases 1. We ___ from these cases to more general conclusions with varying degrees of certainty 2. Conclusions are ___, but not definite 3. *Strength of arguments* influences how likely conclusion is to be ___ a) conclusion NEVER DEFINITIVE because there can always be info that changes your conclusion; *can support, but not confirm* b) ex. conclude all swans are white until you see a black one, you wouldn't know

1. generalize 2. suggestions 3. true

Judgments 1. We use ___ reasoning and __ judgments all the time in everyday life 2. Make __ about what will happen based on observations about *what has happened in the past* a) Mechanism for using ___ experience to guide present behavior b) Often done by way of shortcuts - __

1. inductive; consequent 2. predictions a) past b) heuristics

Bounded Rationality and Dual Process There are limits to human information processing -Adaptive mechanisms to simply processing 1. *Dual process theory of ___* 2. System 1 - quickly proposes answers to __ problems a) Heuristic 3. System 2 - monitors the ___ of those judgments a) Analytic 4. because of limits of ability to reason, in some cases, sys 1 will make better judgments

1. judgment 2. judgment 3. quality

reasoning, judgment or decision making? 1. There's been a "pop" quiz every other Monday for 2 months. It's Sunday night, 2 weeks after the last quiz. I'd better get ready for a quiz a) occurred in past, likely to happen in future 2. If you don't manage your time effectively, then you aren't going to do well in your classes. My roommate is bombing all of his classes. He's not very good at time management. a) using given info "if you dont.." to say he's not good... 3. Should I buy that brand new truck? The consumer magazines rave about it, but a friend of my brother's bought one and it was a real lemon. I better not. a) multiple options for a car... integrate in uncertain situation

1. judgment 2. reasoning 3. decision making

The influence of emotions - Kermer et al. (2006): Participants received $5; coin flip would determine whether they would win an additional $5 or lose $3 *Rated their happiness before the experiment started and asked to predict how it would change if they won* ($5 + $5 = $10) or lost ($5 - $3 = $2) -Also rated happiness after the coin flip Results 1. people significantly overestimate __ feeling of loss a) = ___ are at inefficient decision making so we take less risks

1. negative a) emotions

Decision Making 1. Expected value was a ___ model a) Modifications to make it more ___ 2. *we don't really operate with expected value, more __ value (how ___ we would feel if we lose)* 3. ___ - subjective value as determined by the decision maker a) we overweight negative > positive = deter from __ *Our decisions are affected by emotions* 4. Many decisions carry a certain amount of ___, which is associated with emotions 5. We tend to overestimate the expected ___ effect of losing, compared to the actual effect of losing 6. We also assign a greater impact (expected) to a ___ *than to a gain of the same size*

1. normative a) descriptive 2. subjective; negative 3. utility a) risks 4. risk 5. negative 6. loss

Compensatory models 1. A decision making strategy that allows __ attributes to compensate for negative ones 2. What characteristics do I care about? the 2 good ones may override the 1 bad 3. Comparing 2 apartments: how should you decide? a) Normative model: 4. however, it's a subjective assessment, so people place different values on pros/cons

1. positive 3. all all pros/cons, see which is better

Inductive Reasoning How do we determine the strength/quality of an argument? 1. *___ of observations* a) How well do observations about a particular category represent all members of the category b) ex are the 2 red heads I met representing all red heads? c) ex 2. *Number of observations* a) The more observations, the ___ the argument 3. *Quality of evidence* a) Stronger evidence, supported with __ measurement, leads to stronger arguments

1. representativeness 2. stronger 3. objective

Representativeness heuristic 1. __ __ is important 2. __ __ __ __ - we mistakenly expect small samples to mirror population statistics 3. __ __: the belief that the odds of a chance event increase if the event hasn't occurred recently (flipping coin; my luck has to turn!)

1. sample size 2. law of small numbers 3. gambler's fallacy

*Decision Making* 1. *Normative models*: What people ___ do 2. *Descriptive models*: What people __ do 3. people often don't do what they should do bec so many __ in judgment

1. should 2. actually 3. biases

Emotions and decision making 1. __ ___ __: Visceral feelings normally guide decision making. a) GUT REACTION 2. __ __cortex and v__ __ prefrontal cortex store and activate somatic markers of emotions originating in the limbic system 3. ____ injuries can disrupt ability to use somatic markers of emotion in effective decision making

1. somatic marker hyp 2. orbital frontal; ventral lateral 3. prefrontal

*Deductive Reasoning: *Process of reasoning from one or more general *statements regarding what is known* to reach a logically certain conclusion Based on logical propositions: 1. Propositions - assertions that can be either __ or __ 2. __ reasoning - Two statements (premises) - Conclusion

1. true or false 2. syllogistic

Deductive Reasoning People have difficulty with syllogisms because there are many *cognitive constraints *on syllogistic reasoning: *Atmosphere hypothesis* • All A are B • All C are B • Therefore, all A are C 1. ___ memory limitations a) more premises to organize = more complex = harder on memory 2. __ __ - misinterpretation of a premise -the ex above is not saying all B are A 3. ___ bias - accepting a conclusion as valid if it is consistent with personal beliefs

1. working 2. illicit conversion 3. belief bias

The way a decision is presented can influence choices [Slovic et al. (2000):] Forensic psychiatrists and psychologists read a case history of a mental patient and were asked to judge the likelihood that he would commit an act of violence within the next 6 months of discharge Framed in two ways: 1) 20 out of every 100 patients similar to Mr. X are estimated to commit an act of violence 2) Patients similar to Mr. X are estimated to have a 20% chance of committing an act of violence Results: which group was more likely to refused to discharge? (even tho it's the same question) 2. what is this an example of

2 group (20/100 chance) framing effect

Validity v. Truth 1. It is hard to judge whether reasoning is "logical" or not a) *Valid arguments can result in false conclusions* (because the premises are not true) 2. An argument can be invalid even though the premises are true 3.* hard to assess validity and truth separately bec validity is ___ with our knowledge about truth*

3. impaired

___ ____: using the same qualifier = more likely to say the conclusion is valid ex. Some professors are logicians. -Some logicians are absent-minded. -Therefore, some professors are absent-minded.

Atmosphere hypothesis

Judgment Making judgments about the frequency or likelihood of an event based on how easily instances come to mind

Availability Heuristic

If Program C is adopted, 400 people will be lost. If Program D is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that nobody will die and a 2/3 probability that 600 people will die. Which program do you favor? 1. 78% chose C or D 2. framed in terms of lives lost = prefer __ > concrete

D probablistic

Choice among alternatives Risky because may not make "correct" choice

Decision Making

Use info to arrive at a conclusion -going beyond information given to make a ___ Working to conc. based on evidence (drawing a conclusion)

Judgment

Typical events of a category are seen as more probable The probability that A comes from B can be determined by how well A resembles properties of B

Representativeness Heuristic

1. Framing as lives SAVED makes people risk ____. 2. Framing as lives LOST makes people risk ___.

averse taking

A decision making strategy that allows positive attributes to compensate for negative ones

compensatory model

1. The 4 card task...if you make an abstract problem *___ and related to ___* made it easier to solve (the previous example was too abstract) "If a person is drinking beer, then the person must be over 21 years of age." -29 of 49 correct; none of 40 correct in abstract original 2. making situation __ increases ability to reason logically 3. using __ contract

concrete; experience 2. familiar 3. social

Inductive or Deductive The sun rises every morning; therefore, the sun will rise on Tuesday morning.

deductive

Conclusions can come from principles or evidence 1. ___ reasoning (general to specific) a) reasoning in which a conclusion is reached by stating a general principle and then applying that principle to a specific case 2. ___ reasoning (specific to general)

deductive inductive

The decision-making bias that results from the way a decision, question, or problem is worded -how info is presented

framing effect

deductive reasoning relies more on (reasoning/judgment) bec have to rely on what's given to draw conclusion

judgment

A decision strategy that rejects alternatives that have negative attributes without considering their positive attributes

noncompensatory models

Evaluate given conclusion based on given info Eval whether conclusion follows based on given info

reasoning

Representativeness of observations Robins are susceptible to disease A. Therefore, all birds are susceptible to disease A. Turkeys are susceptible to disease A. Therefore, all birds are susceptible to disease A. 1. we give more weight to robins or turkeys to generalize to all birds?

robins because they are more represent. of birds

hosptial prob people ignore __ __ and __ __ (the smaller hospital is correct) most people say they are the same

sample sizes and base rates

Visceral feelings normally guide decision making

somatic marker hypothesis

Representativeness Heuristic 1. ___ events of a category are seen as more probable We randomly pick one male from the population of the US. That male, Robert, wears glasses, speaks quietly, and reads a lot. Is it more likely that Robert is a librarian or a farmer? 2. what do most people think the answer is?

typical librarian even tho there are more farmers

subjective value as determined by the decision maker -deters us from taking risks

utility

Validity v. Truth 1. ___ depends on the *form of the syllogism* a) Whether the conclusion follows from the 2 premises 2. ___ depends on the *content* of the premises a) Consistent with facts, or not

validity truth