week 14
How can your decision making style affect your mental health
Maximizers tend to experience more regret and depression
Explain why decision making can be so difficult to study in a lab and so difficult to do well in everyday situations
There are so many different possible options to choose from, there are also not clear cut rules to follow in making the decision and even after we make a decision it is impossible to know if that was the best decision
analogy of the rider and the elephant relates how to the different types of processing
Type one processing is the elephant, because the elephant is much bigger/stronger than the rider and could really do whatever it wants if it chose to Type two processing: it is effortful deliberate guidance to ride the elephant where the rider wants to go
Planning fallacy, examples
We are overconfident in the amount of time and money etc it will take us to do things. IE big dig, trying to replace boston highway with a huge tunnel. They start running into problems and things take longer than they predicted. It wasn't finished till 10 years after they predicted and it took a lot more money.
Availability heuristic and examples
accurate when ease of recall matches the true, objective frequency of the example. Recency and familiarity can distort accuracy associated with this heuristic. You're given the group and asked to recall examples of it IE is the population of japan, Russia or Bangladesh higher. Likely to say japan or Russia because they're more available in our heads but really its bangladesh
Hindsight bias, examples
after something occurs we are supremely confident we could have anticipated the outcome. IE in the superbowl the seahawks are at the 1 yard line, seahawks had a very good runningback and three downs left. Everyone assumed they would win. Rather than do what was expected he threw the ball and it was intercepted and so the patriots won. Everyone destroyed the coach after saying they knew it was a bad idea etc. just before halftime a similar situation happened and they scored extra points because of it
Flanker task, what cognitive processes tested
an arrow appears in the center, and there will be two distractor arrows on each side. Raise your left hand if the center arrow is pointing left, raise your right hand if the center arrow is pointing to the right. Measures ability to pay attention to the relevant part of the stimulus. Measures reaction time, reaction time is slower when flankers are different directions and reaction times are quicker when all the info is congruent.
Social norms, examples:
appropriate rules of behavior in social situations. IE Lance Armstrong, new team member Tyler is shocked that they are using steroids and he realizes its just the social norm even though it was originally shocking to Tyler. Tyler gave back his gold medal, because he used steroids.
How to avoid negative effects of social norms
ask yourself if the social norm is helpful, and if not then push it back
How to negate hindsight bias
crystal ball technique (you make a decision, then come up with the alternative and in your mind you analyze the opposite decision and think what if it is true and pretend its 100% accurate for a minute)
How to negate planning fallacy
crystal ball technique (you make a decision, then come up with the alternative and in your mind you analyze the opposite decision and think what if it is true and pretend its 100% accurate for a minute)
Framing effect and examples
decision is influenced by background context and wording of the question. IE presenting a drug as 'effective in 80% of cases' vs 'failed in 20% of cases'
Anchoring and adjustment heuristic, how to combat it
do your homework and determine an accurate anchor
Base rate fallacy
emphasizes representativeness and underemphasizes info about base rates (how often an item occurs in a population, even when provided with base rate info people ignore it). IE Tom is an opera buff who enjoys touring art museums on vacation. Is he a trumpet player for a symphony or is he a farmer? Base rate says he is more likely to be a farmer since there are more farmers in America but since the question talks about opera we are more likely to assume opera
Maximizers
examine as many options as possible
How to avoid negative effects of algorithm aversion
give people a small amount of control over the algorithm even if it's only 2% of the time and results in worse performance until they get comfortable with the algorithm
Algorithm aversion, examples
humans are leery of using algorithms because they don't like giving up control and are less forgiving of mistakes by algorithms than mistakes by humans. IE Philadelphia eagles used data to decide what combo of players gave the best chance. One coach was against this and went with gut feeling and did terrible, whereas the next coach used it and ended up winning the Superbowl
Loss aversion
idea that losses loom larger than gains. When presented the opportunity to lose something vs gain something losing has a stronger effect. IE govt uses loss aversion to help us behave better-impose a 5 cent fee for grocery bags rather than a 5 cent discount
type 1 processing
instinctive answer that is intuitive, automatic, emotional, irrational (IE a decision about something you are an expert in)
Representativeness heuristic, negative effects
it can be so persuasive people ignore important statistical info, fall prey to base rate fallacy, small sample fallacy, conjunction fallacy
How to negate present bias
making a decision in advance that is difficult to change (order your lunch the night before, temptation bundling (pair participation in a pleasant task and less pleasant task like listening to a podcast while cleaning)
N-back task, what cognitive processes tested
n refers to a number. Simplest version is the 1 back task. You're shown a series of images and if the image you're currently being shown is the same as the images you were previously shown (1 back) then you clap to signify it's the same. Tests working memory and specifically working memory working towards a task.
Pro and Anti saccade task, what cognitive processes tested
only look at the central shape, and when the shape appears in one of the side boxes move your eyes to look at the shape. Anti task would be when the shape appears in the side box you look at the opposite box. Anti: measures ability to inhibit reflexive responses towards a salient stimuli and instead do a different task with it intentionally. Pro: measures eye movement which is important to inhibiting info and behaving contextually properly
Prospect theory and examples
our tendency to avoid risks when delaing with gains and seek risks when dealing with possible losses. We prefer sure wins over gambles and gambles over sure losses. IE sure prize of 85$, 85% chance of winning 100 and thus a 15% getting nothing. Most take the sure winnings but in all reality gambling is statistically identical you'll win 85$ on average regardless.
Small-sample fallacy
people assume a small sample will represent the larger population. IE is it easier to get 60% boys born on any given day in a small or large hospital
Representativeness heuristic, examples
people judge that a sample is likely if it is similar to the population from which the sample is selected. You are given one thing and asked to judge how representative it is of the whole population. IE, if you flip a coin six times you expect it to be HTHTHT
Conjunction fallacy
people judge the probability of the conunction of two events to be greater than the probability of a constituent event. Conjunction rule says that the probability of two events cannot be larger than the probability of either of its events alone. Linda majored In philosophy and likes social justice issues etc. what was her career? Bank teller and feminist is our likely answer because we assume she's at least a feminist. if the option feminist alone was there, this would be different but we are seeing bank teller and feminist together as more likely than a bank teller alone
dual process theory
refers to type 1 and type 2 processing
how to negate loss aversion
reframe the decision (consider from a gains and losses perspective), expand your frame of reference (imagine making the decision 100's of times)
Satisficers
settle for something that is satisfactory
Wisconsin Card sorting task, what cognitive processes tested
subjects are told the cards but not told how to. Each card has different shapes, colors and numbers. There is a reward or a punishment like some sort of bell if they're right or a buzzer if they're wrong. The rules can then change whenever, and the buzzer starts sounding for what was previously correct. They have to adjust to the new rules. Measures frontal lobe functionality; people with frontal lobe problems have trouble doing this. Perseverate, unable to adjust behavior to their current context. Also tests working memory and its ability to adapt
type 2 processing
the analytical, controlled, effortful and rational processing answer
How to negate confirmation bias
using a devils advocate
Illusory correlation and examples
we think there is a relationship between two variables but there actually isn't. IE the effect full moons have on our behavior
Anchoring and adjustment heuristic, examples
when making an estimate we begin with the first approximation (anchor) and then make adjustments to that number on the basis of additional information. However we often rely to heavily on the anchor and our adjustments are too small. high school students given series of problems, like 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8 and others given 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1 and the median response given for each was different, thinking equation starting with 8 was a larger value. Can also be a salesman technique, start with a huge anchor of 150 and say something is a huge sale
Present bias, examples
you have a short term reward that you value more than a longer term reward. IE you would rather eat a dr pepper now than an apple because right now it sounds better
Confirmation bias, examples
you undervalue what the facts say and overvalue and only look for info that confirms your belief. IE politics and view on trump