226 Final
Conflict trap, indicators of conflict
- developed economies leave conflict behind - less developed countries are vulnerable to conflict if: *they depend on a natural resource economy * GDP is flat or declining *they have youth bulge *they have had conflict within the previous 5 years can be overcome through economic diversification and economic growth
forum shopping/boomerang politics
- if politics is blocked, move to a different forum - blocked in U.S. + Russia, moved to different forum - moved to UN
TANs and how they operate (different types of politics)
- resurrection politics - information politics - transparency politics - symbolic politics - leverage politics - accountability politics - shame and name - reframe issues w/ values and powerful images
lenses of conflict transformation show
-presenting problem/immediate situation -underlying patters and context -a conceptual framework
Major armed conflicts
1k people killed within a conflict within a year (direct combat deaths) have declined by more than half in the past thirty years are primarily civil wars.
Fisher and Ury's 4 steps to principled negotiations
four principles for effective negotiation, including: separating people from the problem, focusing on interests rather than positions, generating a variety of options before settling on an agreement, and insisting that the agreement be based on objective criteria.
accountability politics
holding powerful actors to their previously stated policies or principles
3 I's of religious peacebuilding
* Religious actors have deep INSTITUTIONAL capacity * IDEAS, about the common good (non-violence, peace, etc.) * IMAGINATION, a vision and obligation of creating a more peaceful world
crimes against humanity and war crimes
- Murder, Extermination, Enslavement, Deportation - Other inhumane Acts committed Against any Civilian Population - Before or During the War - Or Persecutions on Political, Racial, or Religious Grounds - Not technically a WAR CRIME (ex. Killing one's own citizens) Today includes: Rape, forced pregnancy, and torture
BATNA
Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement the most advantageous alternative course of action a party can take if negotiations fail and an agreement cannot be reached. standard against which any proposed agreement should be measured. helps to ensure you are not accepting terms that are too unfavorable and from rejecting terms it would be in your interest to accept.
ISIS, religious, TANs working for genocide resolutions, refugees and IDPs in Iraq and Syria
Churches and convents destroyed in Iraq. 2.5 million Christians in Iraq before US invasion; less than 200,000 Christians in Iraq today. ISIS destroying monasteries and churches, Christians are fleeing ISIS genocide: documented over 3000 christians murdered, forcibly displaced, raped, tortured. Over 125 Christian Churches destroyed, forced conversions, and destruction of homes schools and communities.
Resurrection politics
take up issues thought previously dead on arrival
genocide: legal definition
Defined as acts committed to destroy, in whole or part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group.
DDR
Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration, is a standard tool of de-escalating conflict and restoring relations after a conflict. DDR often includes compensation to war victims and economic development opportunities to spur defense conversion to civilian economic activities. DDR was quite effective in rebuilding Europe after World War II. May include military conversion and integrating the former paramilitary members into state military, police, and security Was accomplished in Wajir District by the Wajir Women for Peace, Wajir Youth for Peace, and Wajir Businesses for Peace
How have demographics changed against Iraqi Christians, and how can religious minorities overcome demographic imbalances?
Estimated at around 1.5 million in the 1980s, today's numbers of Christians range between 250,000 and 400,000 at best. Most Christians are located either in the Kurdistan Region or in the Hamdaniya district in the northern province of Nineveh. Christians will never be able to reverse the demographic advantage that majority communities enjoy as a demographic minority. This advantage - caused by both natural and induced demographic change - will persist and, if anything, will only grow. Today's world is one of soft power; among the most influential tools of soft power are money and knowledge. The brunt of investment would better be directed toward support and creating economic, industrial, educational, or technological poles out of the identified clusters. This would confer to the Christian communities huge leverage that would substitute for the loss of influence resulting from the demographic imbalance.
What role did external actors, including Hillary Clinton, play in increasing women's participation in the peace process?
For the UK, Britain's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Mo Mowlam, was a strong supporter of the Women's Coalition. For Ireland, Liz O'Donnell, representative of the Irish government to the Multi-Party Talks, was another visible female face around the Talks table. Women were key figures in US diplomatic efforts. The US ambassador to the Republic of Ireland prior to the negotiations was Jean Kennedy Smith, who used her platform to send women leaders from the North to the United States for capacity-building training from American women's organizations, and the consul general in Belfast throughout the negotiations was Kathleen Stephens. First Lady Hillary Clinton provided key leadership on women's participation in the peace process. During the Clintons' trip to Belfast in 1995, she met with a group of women from across community lines, drawing attention to the ongoing peace work of women's organizations. She returned to Northern Ireland in 1997 and gave a speech at the University of Ulster emphasizing the important role women can play in peacebuilding, and when representatives of each of the parties traveled to Washington, D.C., she met with the NIWC and highlighted their concerns.
Describe the significant improvements to the situation of minorities in the Kurdistan region since 2015.
In 2015, the Kurdistan Region's Parliament passed the "Law of Protecting the Rights of Components in Kurdistan-Iraq," which guarantees efficient and full equality to all ethnic and religious minorities living in the Muslim-Kurdish dominated Kurdistan region. The types of investment in Ankwana - the largest Christian agglomeration in Kurdistan - such as Maryamana Hospital and the Catholic University of Erbil, foretell how a cluster can be built to become a pole of knowledge.
ICC, predecessors such as the international criminal tribunal for the former yugoslavia, rwanda
International Criminal Court: has jurisdiction when a country's own legal system fails to investigate charges of genocide, war crimes, or crimes against humanity. considered reactive, reacts after harm has been done
JCPOA
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aka Iran Nuclear Deal the JCPOA placed significant restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief Iran agreed not to produce either the highly enriched uranium or the plutonium that could be used in a nuclear weapon. The accord limits the numbers and types of centrifuges Iran can operate, the level of its enrichment, as well as the size of its stockpile of enriched uranium. Iran agreed to eventually implement a protocol that would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, unfettered access to its nuclear facilities and potentially to undeclared sites. If any signatory suspects Iran is violating the deal, the UN Security Council may vote on whether to continue sanctions relief. This "snapback" mechanism remains in effect for ten years, after which the UN sanctions are set to be permanently removed. In April 2020, the United States announced its intention to snap back sanctions. The other P5 members objected to the move, saying the United States could not unilaterally implement the mechanism because it left the nuclear deal in 2018. President Trump withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018, claiming it failed to curtail Iran's missile program and regional influence. Iran began ignoring limitations on its nuclear program a year later. President Biden has said the United States will return to the JCPOA if Iran resumes compliance, stressing that diplomacy is the best way to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
covid impacts on peace and conflict
Laudato Si - noted that environmental issues are interdependent with other issue areas, from development to peace there have been ceasefires and general focusing on covid. BAD NEWS: conflict remains (Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen....) Increasing peace and remaining war are happening at same time War remains primarily in Middle East and North Africa, non-democratic countries w/o diversified economies
Definitions of sovereign states vs nations; differences, definitions, examples
Nation: groups of people who share a language, cultural identity, religion, history, race, or ethnicity *roughly 8,000 nations (low estimate) Sovereign states: people, government, territory, international recognition (3 of which are negotiable - int. recog. is not negotiable - Palestine is not int. recog.) Somalia is the flipside of Palestine. *193 sovereign states
npt: nuclear powers vs. non nuclear states
Non-Proliferation Treaty: - passed by UN in 1968, signed into force 1970 - stop spread of Nuke's - states w/ nukes would work towards disarmament - non-nuke states would commit to non-nuclear and use nuclear energy peacefully it sought to have countries that had nuclear weapons to begin disarmament, by stopping to produce new nuclear weapons and reducing their nuclear weapons. The non-nuclear states, by singing this treaty agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons, and instead sought nuclear energy. Despite the NPT having been around for decades, and while progress has been made in non-nuclear states, nuclear states were not following the resolution. Nukes had started to be reduced in nuclear states but they started ramping up their programs in the mid teens of the 21st century (US + Russia putting lots of $$). Non-nuclear states, having followed the treaty criticized those nuclear states for going in the wrong direction, and hence the need and desire for another international treaty.
Describe what the NIWC was. How did it impact the peace process?
One of the important stories of women's involvement in the Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement is that of the creation, campaign, and presence of the NIWC, a political party that sent two delegates to the negotiations with the express purpose of serving as a voice for women on both sides of the conflict. It was a non-traditional party, consisting primarily of women civil society leaders who felt disenfranchised by the existing political status quo. The NIWC impacted the peace process both procedurally and substantively through its role as an "honest broker" facilitating dialogue between opposing parties, and by inserting issues and language into the final agreement that may have otherwise been missing.
What was the state of women's exclusion from formal peace processes in the 1990s? How did women gain access to the formal peace processes in this case?
Other than the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC), most of the negotiating teams for the Good Friday Agreement were men. The NIWC's two delegates and its back-bench team were composed entirely of women. At the early stages of the Multi-Party Talks, there were few women involved behind the scenes in the work of each of the other parties, and the number of women elected to the Forum for Political Dialogue provided a rough proxy of the prominence of women's participation in each party. The Nationalist parties had a much greater commitment to women's participation than did Unionist parties, even in the 1990s. For example, in 1995, 40 percent of Sinn Féin's National Executive members were women. Women's participation in Unionist/loyalist politics was less visible, though they comprised a significant portion of the membership base for the main parties. Women did participate in loyalist paramilitary organizations, though their contributions remained largely unrecognized. As the Troubles went on, leading up to the Talks, women's involvement in the communities increased, as did their presence in party conversations.
refugees vs IDPs, women and refugees, trends, numbers
Refugees: are primarily women and children, are hosted in countries such as Lebanon, turkey, Iran, Jordan, and Uganda (major refugee receiving countries), flee war in countries such as Afghanistan and Syria, major refugee sending countries * internally displaced persons - people who have fled their homes because of natural or man-made disasters, violence or persecution. displaced w/in their own country * Refugees - those who have fled their country because of violence, conflict, or fear of prosecution. * migrants - those who have left their homes to live or work elsewhere. reasons vary and it may be forced or voluntary
michael klare on environmental conlflicts
Resource wars Thesis: The global distribution of resources, particularly oil and freshwater, will play a key role in shaping the military policies of nation-states and other political actors in the 21st century.
R2P
Responsibility to Protect global political commitment which was endorsed by all member states of the United Nations at the 2005 World Summit in order to address its four key concerns to prevent genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity state carries primary responsibility for protection of populations from 4 atrocities. international community has a responsibility to assist states. Int. community should use diplomatic and other peaceful means to protect populations. The authority to employ the use of force under the framework of the Responsibility to Protect rests solely with United Nations Security Council and is considered a measure of last resort --> Syria, Libya, Kenya, Sudan
episode, epicenter
The Episode is what triggers conflict, while the epicenter is the root cause for the conflict. Episode is the immediate, triggering incident of conflict. The epicenter is the underlying structure, the economic, social, cultural, personal and relational roots of the conflict, that go deeper than the presenting incident. Episode of conflict is the visible expression of conflict rising within the relationship or system, usually within a distinct time frame, It generates attention and energy around a particular set of issues that need response (fighting occurring in a market + impact it has on women) + (voting rights in selma case) The epicenter of conflict is the web of relational patterns, often providing a history of lived episodes, from which new episodes and issues emerge. If the episode releases conflict energy in the relationship, the epicenter is where the energy is produced.(root of conflict, disagreements w/ sub clans, exclusion of particular clans) + (social injustices in American societies - selma case)
thomas homer dixon on resource conflicts
The Project on Environment, Population, and Security (Toronto Group) Thesis: scarcity of renewable resources can contribute to civil violence 5 categories of dispute that could plausibly be caused by environmental scarcity. Do the following types of disputes lead to violent conflict? - site-specific concerns such as logging or pollution (Amazon) - ethnic clashes caused by migration and social cleavages caused by environmental scarcity (Darfur) - civil strife caused by environmental scarcity that affects economic activity, livelihood, behavior of elites, and state responses (Rwanda) - scarcity-drive interstate wars over resources such as water (Israel-Palestine) - large-scale north-south conflicts related to global problems of climate change, ozone depletion, biodiversity loss, etc. scarcity of renewable resources + resource capture: when powerful groups shift the distribution of resources in their favor + ecological marginalization: when powerful groups prevent less powerful groups from accessing and using scarce resources + contextual factors: physical characteristics of a given environment and localized human social relation and institutions = violent conflicts in third world
What is "strategic peacebuilding" and give specific examples of how some religious actors practice peacebuilding that is not just local level but also strategic.
The Sisters in Iraq used their TANs to do strategic peacebuilding - providing for the immediate needs of persecuted Christians in ways that serve a long-term goal - by helping to make the Iraqi Christian communities more resilient, laying the groundwork for later reconciliation and reintegration with the majority faith communities, and lobbying for religious freedom over a longer time-frame. Strategic peacebuilding begins with local issues and connects them with national and international actors and institutions, integrating complementary conflict transformation practices in order to move beyond physical violence and create more robust, more sustainable, just peace. For example, Christians who fled Nineveh speak Aramaic, and often they do not speak Arabic or Kurdish, the languages needed in the areas Christians fled to. Consequently, Christians were not able to integrate into the local school systems, not only because there is not enough space for so many refugees and IDPs in Kurdistan, but also due to language barriers that prevented meaningful instruction. The sisters rushed to build schools so that Christian IDPs and refugees would not lose years of education, trapping them and their children in lifetimes of poverty.
Describe the roots of the conflict in Northern Ireland.
Though the conflict in Northern Ireland had deep roots going back more than a century, the Good Friday Agreement addressed the range of issues related to the political conflict known as the "Troubles," which reputed in the 1960s and continued into the 1990s. The Troubles thrived on a rift that had existed since the formation of Northern Ireland - between Catholic Nationalists who called for the reunification of Ireland and independence from Great Britain, and Protestant Unionists who aimed to maintain Northern Ireland's place in the UK. Since the 12th century, British policies towards Ireland were guided primarily by economic interests, resulting in economic and legal discrimination against native Irish Catholics, in favor of English Protestants who settled in the northern counties. In the 17th century, the Irish Parliament banned Catholics from land ownership and public office, and by the end of the 19th century, widespread displacement of Catholics from the northern counties meant Protestants controlled most of the economic resources in the region. Following the 1916 revolutionary uprising in the south that eventually led to Irish independence from Britain, the Government of Ireland Act of 1920 partitioned the island into two distinct states: Northern Ireland (6 majority Protestant counties) and the eventual Republic of Ireland (26 majority Catholic counties to the south). Underlying tensions over discrimination in social housing and employment, gerrymandering of political boundaries and denial of the political franchise, extensive use of emergency legislation, and aggressive policing came to a boiling point in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
john paul lederach's conflict transformation
To envision and respond to the ebb and flow of social conflict as life-giving opportunities for creating constructive change processes that reduce violence, increase justice in direct interaction and social structures, and respond to real-life problems in human relationships. conflict transformation involves transforming the relationships that support violence --> conflict can improve a society (selma), conflict always going to be with us understanding the different levels of conflict
TPNW
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: - UN resolution - signed in 2017, ratified in January of 2021 --> int. law -Holy see and Catholic church long worked to ban nuke's There are no nuclear states as signatories to this treaty, the philosophy behind the treaty is to have a coalition of the international community against nuclear weapons, which will constrain nuclear states from the use/threats of nuclear weapons. The treaty takes on the purpose/messaging of the NPT, as well as seeking support for the victims of nuclear attacks. the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. considered a proactive approach, to protect civilians from harm
UN security council resolution 1325 and associated women, peace, and security resolutions
UNSCR1325 was the result of an "an informal exchange between Security Council members and nongovernmental organizations." Women from conflict zones around the world gathered to share their personal stories with the Security Council with the hope of conveying the gender-specific conditions that women experience during a conflict. Led to six later UNSC resolutions on women, peace and security: 1820, 1888, 1889, 1960, 2106, 2122, 2242. 64 countries have developed national action plans for 1325 1325 was unanimously passed in 2000, first Security Council resolution to specifically address women's issues. Reaffirms the important role of women in the prevention and resolution of conflicts, peace negotiations, peace-building, peacekeeping, humanitarian response and in post-conflict reconstruction, and stressed the importance of their equal participation and full involvement in all efforts for the maintenance and promotion of peace and security. It urges all actors to increase participation of women and incorporate gender perspectives in all UN peace and security efforts. Calls on all parties to take special measures to protect women and girls from gender-based violence, in situations fo armed conflict UNSCR 1820 - passed in 2008, recognizes that conflict-related sexual violence is a tactic of warfare and calls for the training of troops on preventing and responding to sexual violence, deployment of more women to peace operations, and enforcement of zero-tolerance policies for peacekeepers with regards to acts of sexual exploitation or abuse. UNSCR 1888 - strengthen implementation fo 1820 by calling for leadership tp address conflict-related violence, deployment of teams to critical conflict areas, and improved monitoring and reporting on conflict trends and perpetrators. UNSCR 1889 - 2009, addresses obstacles to women's participation in peace processes and calls for development of global indicators to track the implementation of 1325, and improvement of international and national responses to the needs of women in conflict and post-conflict settings. UNSCR 1960 - Passed in December 2010, calls for an end to sexual violence in armed conflict, particularly against women and girls, and provides measures aimed at ending impunity for perpetrators of sexual violence, including through sanctions and reporting measures.
covid ceasefires and lessons learned
Un Secretary General and Pope Francis called for a global cease fire, so that the world could focus on fighting a common enemy, covid 19 16 unilateral ceasefire 3 multilateral - more effective Lessons learned: 1) covid-19 one layer, not only consideration 2) support local efforts 3) humanitarian ceasefires can be a building block for longer peace 4) UNSC cannot save the day but outsider can help support local efforts
5 permanent members of the Security Council
Us, UK, China, Russia, France
negotiation jujitsu
Used when the other side won't play in negotiations. Focuses on what they may do. It counters the basic moves of positional bargaining in ways that direct their attention to the merits. Do not push back. When they assert their positions, do not reject them - as doing so will dig them in. When they attack your ideas, don't defend them. Refuse to react, sidestep their attack and deflect it against the problem. -Don't attack their position, look behind it -Don't defend your ideas, invite criticism and advice -recast an attack on you as an attack on the problem -ask questions and pause
(Wajir case) Women are more religious than men. Explain the data.
Women religious and laywomen dominate in the local church and NGOs, health care, and educational organizations. The ranks of women increasingly serve in pastoral roles and receive theological degrees. Women play crucial ministerial roles in areas of persecution, sustaining Christian communities even when male clerics are assassinated or in short supply. Due to the prominence of male clerical leaders presiding over religious rituals, the leadership roles of women of faith presiding over education, health care, and other Christian TANs, are often overlooked. TANs of Christian women have been key in sustaining Christianity, from Jesus's time onward. Women flocked to the new faith, attracted to its liberating ideas and practices, so much so that Romans initially dismissed Christianity as a weak, women's religion. Christian TANs expanded from the 1500s to the 1900s, led by women's religious orders and women-led lay organizations.
resource curse and natural resource wars
blood diamonds, sierra leone Rwandan genocide (ex) 1994 - nearly a million (Tutsi) killed in a month Israel's water wars - water supply to Palestinian towns and villages in the West Bank is cut off for days - if not weeks
leverage politics
calling upon more powerful actors (or actors w/ fame or a following in another arena - celebrities) to act on behalf of weaker network members
conflict transformation v. conflict resolution
conflict transformation: places a greater weight on addressing the underlying conditions which give rise to that conflict, preferably well in advance of any hostility, but also to ensure a sustainable peace. In other terms, it attempts to make explicit and then reshape the social structures and dynamics behind the conflict, often employing analytical tools borrowed from systems thinking conflict resolution: conflict resolution approaches seek to move conflict parties away from zero-sum positions towards positive outcomes, often with the help of external actors.
Trends in conflict
peace is breaking out great power wars were common in the 17th, 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries, but there have been no great power wars since ww2. major armed conflicts have declined dramatically, by more than half, since the end of the cold war the spread of democracies, interdependent economic systems, the success of nonviolent resistance, and the use of peacebuilding techniques together have helped reduce war conflicts of all types have declined across geographic areas deaths from war have been declining international war, always rare, is down since end of cold war, as are major armed conflicts (causing over 1k deaths) * 1991 - there were 33 major armed conflicts * 2010 - there were 16 major armed conflicts * today - there are 10 (all are civil wars * huge expansion of global population --> decrease in war ➢There are fewer than 10 wars: Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, South Sudan, [CAR, DRC, Nigeria, Yemen, Pak]. Increasing peace and remaining war are happening at same time. ➢Over half the war deaths comes from one single conflict: Syria. 2/3 come from Syria/Iraq. No great power wars in over 50 years Nonviolent campaigns from 1900 to 2015 have been around 50 percent successful with only less than 20% having limited success and only around 30 percent failing. Since 1940 the success of nonviolent campaigns has gone up from its starting from 40 percent and going up to almost 70 while the success of violent ones has gone down from around 45 to 15 percent. nonviolent methods elicit 11 times more people then violent campaignsIf you have 1 participant per thousand in population the success rate is around 25% but if you have 1.5 people for every thousand in population the probability of success is 80%.
Lisa Schirch structural violence
refers to the disabilities, disparities, and even deaths that result when systems, institutions, or policies meet some people's needs and rights at the expense of others.
religious freedom and conflict
religious liberty is a human rights concern and a security issue 9 of 16 places where the world's worst wars rage are countries that are among the world's worst violators of religious freedom: Sudan, Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, India, Turkey.... religions are a source of war and conflict in international politics, and therefore the secularization of politics, removing religion from politics, is the better course religious groups help to increase the effectiveness, transparency, legitimacy, and accountability of government institutions --> training transitional justice personnel (Rwanda) religious actors are not non-state actors, they are pre-state actors --> pre-date sovereign state
women and peacebuilding
seen in Wajir case, Philippines and Ireland Women are often the first to notice the rising tensions that can escalate to violence. They are first responders in the aftermath of conflict, taking on most of the work caring for families and repairing shattered economies. Women experience war differently than men. Women are disproportionately victims of war, victims of rape as a tool of war, refugees and internally displaced persons, victims of human trafficking which often flows out of war zones. They are not the combatants, and are committed to peace. Yet, women around the world continue to be excluded from peace and political processes because of discriminatory laws, social stereotypes and institutional obstacles. Even when they are instrumental in brokering and sustaining peace, their contribution is rarely visible. Most of the 20th Anniversary celebrations/ panels/ events marking the Good Friday Peace Accords focused the contributions of men, not women. Women are also victims of structural violence. 70% of the bottom billion, the world's poorest, are women and girls. 70% of youth not in school are women and girls. Girls are 3 times more likely to be malnourished.
New START extension
the United States and Russia officially extended the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for five years, keeping in place the treaty's verifiable limits on the deployed strategic nuclear arsenals of the world's two largest nuclear powers New START: cap at 1,550 warheads. combined limit of 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers. Separate limit of 700 deployed ICBMS, deployed SLBMs and deployed heavy bombers
Symbolic politcs
the ability to call upon symbols, actions, or stories that make sense of a situation for an audience that may be far away
information politics
the ability to quickly and credibly generate politically useful information and move it where it will have the most impact
transparency politics
the ability to shine a light on global issues which others work to hide. AKA Dracula politics, sunshine politics
Sovereignty has dominated the international systems since...
the treaty of Westphalia in 1648