35 - PMP II Lesson 8 (Risk Mgmt 2)/33 - Rita's Chapter 11 (Risk Mgmt)/34 - PMP II Lesson 7 (Risk Mgmt 1)

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Risk Management

* Risk Identification * Risk Analysis * Develop and implement risk responses * Deal with the realized risks * Clean out expired risks * Communicate

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Secondary risks

- A risk occurs and you deploy the planned response. - The planned risk is the cause of another risk. - A secondary risk occurs as a direct response to the implemented planned response.

Sensitivity Analysis

- A tomato/tornado diagram is associated with this quantitative analysis tool - Will help you identify which individual risks have the most potential impact on your project deliverables. - You've able to test how much an outcome changes when you alter one or more variables. - The risks that have the greatest impact are considered most sensitive, - Tomato diagrams are one form of sensitivity charts used to display the results of sensitivity analysis. - The wider the range the more variability (sensitivity)

Risk response terms

- Active risk - Expired risks - Residual risks - Secondary risks - Contingency plans - Risk triggers - Risk threshold - Workarounds

Contingency plans

- Also known as fall-back plan - this is second planned response - It may be deployed of the planned (first) response didn't work and you need a "plan B".

Inputs for the Control Communications process:

- Project management plan - work performance data - organizational process assets

Outputs of the Plan Risk Responses process include:

- Residual risks - fallback plans - contingency reserves.

Monitor overall risk level (tools and techniques)

- Risk audits - Technical performance analysis - Performance analysis - Reserve Analysis

Risk definitions and rules

- Risk categories - Probability impact matrix legend - Definitions for risk scores (high, medium, low) - Risk score rules

factors in the assessment of project risk:

- Risk events - Risk probability - Amount at stake

Qualify the risks

A system development project is nearing project closing when a previously unidentified risk is discovered. This could potentially affect the project's overall ability to deliver. What should be done next?

Perform qualitative risk analysis

A watch list is an output to this risk management process

the first two processes that make up project risk management:

- Plan risk management - identify risks

Probability impact matrix legend

- An agreed upon measure delineation for each level. It can be numerical or other scale such as "unlikely", "somewhat likely" "extremely likely" regardless of the scale used, each level must be measurable and unambiguous. - Definitions for risk scores (high, medium, low) Each risk score generated from the probability impact matrix must also be assigned a designation of low, medium or high. - Risk score rules Provide guidance on what actions should be taken for each risk score category. For example, all risks that are prioritized as "high" will require formal risk responses.

Residual risks

- As the name infers, some of the risk remains after the response was implemented, partial resolution may be good enough and you can carry on with the project. - In other scenarios, you cant move forward until 100% of the risk is resolved.

Risk Data gathering techniques

- Brain storming - Checklists (Example - PESTLE- Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental) - Interviews

These are two outputs of plan communications management:

- Communication management plan - project documents updates

Ways to monitor risks

- Confirm that planned responses were implemented as planned. - Identify new risks as early as possible. - Recognize when an identified risk is activated so the response can be implemented. - Monitor the overall risk level of the project.

Common results of risk management:

- Contract terms and conditions are created - The project management plan is changed - The communication management plan is changed

Strategies for Risk Response (negative risks)

- Escalate - escalate the threat to the appropriate person with the authority to take the required action because the action exceeds the project manager's authority and/or the project scope. - Avoid - if the threat has high probability and/or impact, look for ways to avoid it, changing strategy or approach to the work can do this. Eliminating that project deliverable from project scope, or finding and removing the trigger or cause of the risk can avoid threats. That, in effect, disarms the threat so it can't activate. - Transfer - if the threat can't be avoided, then the next option is to transfer it to a third party. The most common examples of this response are using vendors under a contract or purchasing insurance. - Mitigate - these are preventive measures taken to reduce the probability and/or impact of a threat. If a threat has a high probability but low impact, the team would look for ways to reduce the probability. Many mitigating actions can be summarized under the heading of good definition and planning. Reduce the level of uncertainty by increasing your understanding. - Accept - if none of the responses will work, then you have no other choice. Acknowledge the fact that there is nothing that can be done and accept the threat. Acceptance comes in two forms: active or passive acceptance. Active acceptance is establishing a contingency reserve. Passive acceptance is the watch list you set up for the lower priority risks that do not warrant the time and effort it would require to develop a planned response.

Strategies for Risk Responses (positive risks)

- Escalate - the first option is to escalate the opportunity to the appropriate person with the authority to take the required action because the action exceeds the project manager's authority level; and/or the project scope. Once ownership of the risk has been successfully established, the project team will document it and is not responsible for monitoring it any further. - Exploit - if the opportunity has high probability and/or impact, look for ways to make it happen. Changing the strategy or approach to the work can do this. Opportunities can be exploited by activating the trigger thus guaranteeing the risk will activate. If you want to make a new target date to leverage an opportunity, then get the best people on the project. Senior level people have higher skill sets and the probability of making the date increases with them on your team. - Share - if the risks can't be exploited then the next option is to share it with a partner. Both parties share the benefits and their portion of the risk. The most common example of this response is joint ventures or partnerships. - Enhance - these are proactive measures taken to increase the probability and/or impact of an opportunity. If an opportunity has a low probability but high impact, the team would look for ways to increase the probability. Many enhancing actions can be summarized under the heading of good definition and planning. Reduce the level of uncertainty by increasing your understanding. - Accept - if none of the above responses work, then you have no other choice Acknowledge the fact that there is nothing (cost effectively) that can be done and accept the opportunity. Acceptance is establishing a contingency reserve, so you can take advantage of the opportunity if it activates. Passive acceptance is just monitoring it to see if the opportunity activates.

Expired risks

- Every risk is associated with a specific work effort or activity, if the activity is completed and the risk didn't activate, then it is said to be expired. - The team and the owner who would have been responsible for implementing the risk response can stand down.

Note - You may see this

- For the exam understand the difference between a cause and a risk. - You will also want to be familiar with the risk breakdown structure (RBS) and how it can be used to establish structure and for identifying risks.- Sensitive analysis pairs with tomato/tornado diagrams - Decision tree analysis pairs with expected monetary value (EMV) - Simulations pair with monte carlo analysis

Root Cause Analysis

- Helps identify underlying causes of identified risks - each cause may identify additional risks. - It can help you pinpoint the true reason for a condition and avoid misidentifying a symptom as an underlying cause

Always inputs to the risk management plan:

- Historical information - Lessons learned - Work breakdown structure

These are the three inputs of acquire project team:

- Human resource management plan - enterprise environmental factors - organizational process assets

two tools and techniques for develop project team:

- Interpersonal skills - recognition and rewards

four inputs for plan human resource management:

- Organizational process assets - project management plan - activity resource requirements - enterprise environmental factors

These four processes make up human resource management:

- Plan human resource management - acquire project team - develop project team - manage project team

Key pieces of the risk register are:

- Risk identification number - The activity the risk is associated with, because any activity could have more than one risk. - Risk causes (if known) - Risk statements,: description of the risk - Risk owner: responsible for monitoring the risk and deploying response if needed. - Probability of occurrence - Expected impact if it occurs (usually in dollars) - Risk score - Potential risk responses - Risk category: provided by risk breakdown structure or other grouping such as project objectives - Risk trigger events (if applicable) - Risk status (inactive, active; open or closed; expired, resolved)

Risk management concepts

- Risks are always something in the future - Risks can be positive or negative - Risks are measured in two dimensions - Decision making is influenced by risk attitudes - Risks may be caused by an event or condition - Risks exists where there is uncertainty - Risks are everywhere. You can't avoid all of them. The goal is to manage risk wisely. (successful people identify research, measure and take reasonable risks.)

Active Risk

- Risks that have been activated and risk responses (planned or unplanned) are being implemented - These risks result in issues that must be dealt with.

Data analysis techniques

- Root cause analysis - Assumption analysis - Swot analysis - Document analysis

Assumption Analysis

- Should be part of every planning process. - Make sure your risk identification includes a statement of assumptions and a critique of each one. - Assumptions are a good source of potential risks because they represent incomplete knowledge on something until knowledge is complete the assumption can't be validated. - If it turns out the assumption is incorrect new risks could be identified.

Decision tree analysis

- Supports the decision making process by diagraming out all alternatives and their outcomes. - There are two possibilities at each branch node. - Its either a decision point or a chance event. - Decision trees can also be used as probability trees.

Risks Examples

- Technical and technology - Management - External

Risk triggers

- This is an event or condition that causes a risk to occur. - It is the root cause and if the trigger is activated the probability of the risk just jumped up to close to 100%. - It is the cause and effect like smoke and fire.

Risk Management Plan

- This is the only output for plan risk management: - Where the risk breakdown structure is documented

Key components of a risk management plan

- What is your strategy or approach? - How will you identify risks?

Risk Categories

- You need to define these well so that they reflect common sources of risk: - Specify the categories or groupings to be used for the project. - Often these include project objectives such as schedule and cost or broader categories such as internal versus external risks. - The recommended tool for capturing risk categories is the risk breakdown structure (RBS)

Technical performance analysis

- compares plan versus actual performance of project accomplishments. - Are work packages complete on time and on budget? - Cost and schedule variances may be the result of poor estimating. - The appropriate risk response would be taking actions to improve estimating. - Are quality metrics being met? - Are there more defects than acceptable? - If so, quality risks will need to be analyzed and corrective actions taken.

Risk audits

- determine the effectiveness of the risk management processes. - Audits should be performed at scheduled intervals as documented in the risk management plan. - If the plan is less effective than needed, auditors may make recommendations for changes moving forward

High-level strategies for developing risk responses

- prevent actions designed to reduce the probability of negative risk or increase the probability of positive risk occurrence. - mitigating actions designed to reduce the impact of active negative risks or increase the impact of positive risks

address potential plan risks through planning

- the size of your project. The larger the project the greater the risk - the organization structure. Matrix organizations are often problematic because of dual reporting channels and shared resources. - Project complexity. High levels of complexity increases risks. Complexity may include new technologies, innovative processes, or untried methods or materials. - Project priority: from an organization's perspective, is this a high priority and critical to a strategic objective.

contingency response

A risk had just been triggered on your project. What is the usual (or most common) risk response to a triggered risk?

Probability - impact matrix

A PI matrix provides an easy way to score risks, so we can determine priority

active risk acceptance

A contingency reserve was assigned to a risk that was identified on a project. Which type of risk response strategy is used when a contingency reserve is assigned to a risk?

$20,000

A given project has a 70% potential of making a $50,000 profit and a 30% chance of making a $50,000 loss. What is the projects' EMV?

opportunties

A project has had some problems, but now seems under control. In the last few months, almost all the reserve has been used, and most of the negative impacts of events that had been predicted have occurred. There are only four activities left, and two of them are on the critical path. Management now informs the project manager that it would be in the performing organization's best interest to finalize the project two weeks earlier than scheduled in order to receive an additional profit. In response, the project manager sends out a request for proposal for some work that the team was going to do, hoping to find another company that might be able to do the work faster. The project manager can best be said to attempting to work with:

Involve other stakeholders

A project manager has assembled the project team. They have identified 56 risks on the project, determined what would trigger the risks, rated them on a risk rating matrix, tested their assumptions, and assessed the unit of the data used. The team is continuing to move through the risk management process. What has the project manager forgotten to do?

Add work packages to the project work breakdown structure

A project manager has just finished the risk response plan for a $387,000 engineering project. Which of the following should he probably do next?

Document the new risks and continue the plan risk response process

A project manager is creating a risk response plan. However, every time a risk response is suggested, another risk is identified that is caused by the response. Which of the following is the best thing for the project manager to do?

Use facilitation techniques

A project manager is quantifying risks for her project. Several of her experts are off site, but wish to be included. How can this be done?

Document the secondary risks and start identifying risk from the beginning, as this was not done properly the first time.

A project manager is sitting with his team and creating a risk response plan for identified risks. However, he realizes that each time a risk response is planned for a risk, a secondary risk is also identified. What should the project manager do?

He did the planning processes alone

A project manager, assigned to a high value software project in a rapidly evolving domain, used his own experience to chart out a risk management plan and identified risks which he documented in a risk register. He then analyzed the risks and planned responses for these risks, which he then updated in the register accordingly. Nevertheless, during the course of the project whenever risk control meetings were conducted, it became evident that these documents weren't very helpful. What had the project manager done wrong?

Prioritized list of risks

A project team is creating a project management plan when management asks them to identify project risks and provide some form of qualitative output as soon as possible. What should the project team provide?

best describes risks

Risks are future events that, if one occurs will impact one or more project objectives.

Identify risks

The risk register is an output of the _____ risk management process? - This determines which risks might affect a project and how to document them:

In which situation is passive risk acceptance acceptable as a risk response strategy

When it is best to deal with that risks as it occurs

Optimistic = 26 days, most likely = 30 days, pessimistic = 33 days

Assuming the ends of a range of estimates are +/-3 sigma from the mean, which of the following range estimates involves the least risk:

risk assessment

At every project milestone, a project manager re-examines the risk register to identify any new risks, to ensure the risks in his register are still relevant and to close any risks that are no longer relevant. What is this technique used by the project manager called?

Document Analysis

Go through all the project related documentation to make sure that you're not overlooking something, is everything in the contract included in the wbs - Are the requirements signed off for each deliverable? - By cross checking, you can make sure there's nothing missing. - Missing items are a source of risks. - Conflicting information between project documents are also risks. - What if two documents had two different project completion dates? - How do you know which one is the correct one?

Simulations

Can be used to map out uncertainty by calculating the impact of different combinations of individual risks on the project objectives. Once you develop a model, you can manipulate certain variables to measure the effect of changes. With a simulation, you systemically explore different scenarios and establish a range of possible outcomes, you can use software to calculate thousands of iterations,

The two tools and techniques of manage project team:

Conflict management and project performance appraisals

He should qualify the risk.

Halfway through a project, a project manager discovers a new risk which could probably delay the completion of the project. What should be his next course of action?

Analyze the risks

During project executing, a team member is coordinating with a supplier, and identifies a risk that is not on the risk register. It appears that the pieces of heavy equipment you have ordered from a supplier are larger than anticipated, and they may not all fit into the warehouse the team has leased to store them until they are needed. What should you do?

Create a workaround

During project executing, the team member who is most experienced in the programming work required for the project informs you that he has accepted a new position at another company, and has given his two weeks' notice. This is a major problem that was not included in the risk register. What should you do first?

A workaround risk response.

During the course of a project, a risk materializes that was neither anticipated nor captured in the comprehensive risk register the project manager had earlier prepared after discussing with this team members. In order to handle the emergency, a temporary fix was implemented till the time the problem could not be studied in depth and a permanent resolution could be put into place. This response can be best called:

Update the risk register

During the course of your project, a risk materializes, and your team implements the appropriate risk response strategy successfully. What should be the next thing you should do as a project manager?

More people should have been involved in the planned risk response process.

During the identify risk process, a project manager and stakeholders used various methods to identify risks and created long list of those risks. The project manager then made sure all the risks were understood and that triggers had been identified. Later, in the plan risk response, he took all the risks identified by the stakeholders and determined ways to mitigate them. What has he done wrong?

Use qualitative risk analysis as a way of prioritizing risks for further action such as quantitative risk analysis.

During the identify risk process, you and your team have identified over 250 project risks. However, performing quantitative risk analysis on all these risks will consume a massive amount of time and given that not all these risks are relevant, you would be unable to justify the time and resources spent on such an activity. What should be your next course of action in this situation?

Implement a workaround

During the project execution, how should newly identified active risks be handled?

Plan risk responses

During this risk management process a determination is made to transfer a risk

Monte carlo analysis is used to:

Get an indication of the risk involved in the project

A conversation with a project manager who worked on a similar project

Having just been hired to manage a project to improve the efficiency of data processing in the accounting department, the project manager is most concerned about managing risk on the project. The timeline is short, and the sponsor's expectations are high. Which of the following would best help the project manager in her initial assessment of risks on the project?

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$20,000 profit

If a project has a 60 percent chance of a $100,000 profit and a 40 percent chance of a $100,000 loss, the expected monetary value (EMV) for the project is:

20 percent

If a risk has a 20 percent change of happening in a given month, and the project is expected to last five months. What is the probability that this risk event will occur during the fourth month of the project?

Control risks

In which project management process is a workaround determined?

SWOT analysis

Is unique as a risk identification tool, because through its category focus, it encourages identification of positive (Strengths, and opportunities), as well as negative (weaknesses and threats) risks.

The difference between management reserves and contingency reserves

Management reserves are used to manage unknown events, while contingency reserves are used to manage known risks.

Identify risks and monitor risks

Most of the identified risks will be identified during these risk management processes

These are two tools and techniques of acquire project team:

Negotiation and virtual teams

These include work performance reports and change requests:

Outputs of control communications

risk breakdown structure

Rose is a project manager who needs to carry out risk management. She is searching for a tool or technique to help her list out the various categories and subcategories of risks. Which of the following is the tool/technique that will suit her need?

Discussion of project risks

Since a template for team meetings does not appear to be available, you are creating one. You think it could also be used for future projects. You want to generalize the agenda template to include topics all project managers would use. Which of the following must be included as an agenda item at all team meetings?

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Expected Monetary Value (EMV)

The concept of Monte Carlo analysis is associated with simulations. It performs many iterations to produce distributions of possible outcome values than can't be predicted due to random variables. The random variables are the effect of different combinations of individual risks. - If a risk event had a 90 percent chance of occurring, and the consequences will be $10,000, what does $9,000 represent?

Update risk identification and analysis

The cost performance index (CPI) of a project is 0.6, and the schedule performance index (SPI) is 0.71. The project has 635 work packages and is being completed over a four year period. The team members are inexperienced and the project received little support for proper planning. Which of the following is the best thing to do?

Qualitative analysis outputs

The goal of perform qualitative analysis is to have a prioritized list of risks. In accordance with the risk definitions in the risk management plan, you'll know which risks are required to undergo further analysis. Some examples to use other than probability: - Urgency - Controllability - Connectivity You'll only perform quantitative risk analysis on projects that meet certain criteria as specified by your organization or required under contract by your customer. Project size, complexity or strategic importance are some of the more common criteria.

The manager faced an opportunity, which he shared.

The new office premises did not have sufficient parking space and the project manager found that he could rent a nearby vacant plot in order to procure the necessary parking space for his team members. However, this vacant lot was much larger than required and renting only a part of the property was not an option given by its owner. The project manager then heard that another office in the vicinity was short of space too. He got in touch with a representative from that office and struck a deal to jointly rent the parking space. This resulted in cost savings for both his organization and the other organization. What type of risk did the manager face and what was his response strategy?

Qualitative basis

The project has been chartered to address concerns of low levels of customer satisfaction with the help desk of a large online retailer. You and your team are considering options including upgrading computer systems and software programs, adding additional help desk staff, and improving help desk training. You realize the impact of such changes will be difficult to measure, and you are finding it challenging to evaluate the exact cost impact of risks and resposnes the team has identified. You should evaluate on a(n):

Transference

The strategy of purchasing insurance is best considered an example of risk:

Risk thresholds are determined to help:

The team rank the project risks

accept

There are various risk response strategies for both opportunities and threats. Which of the following is a risk response strategy that is common to both these types of risks?

Constraints

These are factors that limit the project team's options:

Outputs of acquire project team

These are project staff assignments and resource calendars:

Results of communication requirements analysis

These are the sum of information needs of project stakeholders:

Sensitivity analysis and simulations

These two tools make up the tools and techniques of quantitative risk analysis:

What action should be taken on risks that are added to the watchlist?

They should be revisited during the monitoring and controlling phase

Variance analysis

This allows you to compare actual project results with planned results:

Responsibility assignment matrix

This closely links roles and responsibilities to project scope and definition:

Staffing requirements

This defines competency requirements and time frames

Plan risk management

This helps you decide how to approach, plan and execute risk monument activities:

Organizational chart

This is a graphical display of project reporting relationships:

Bar chart

This is another name for Gantt chart:

Co-location

This is placing team members in the same location:

Project management plan

This is the first process in plan communication management:

Respond to risk triggers and implement the planned risk responses.

This is the primary responsibility of a risk owner

Plan communications

This is the process of determining information and the communication needs of stakeholders:

best describes the perform qualitative analysis process

This process utilizes the probability impact matrix to develop risk scores for individual risks

Monitor risks

This risk management process is used to validate the effectiveness of an implemented planned response. - Workarounds are determined during this risk management process

What is a tornado design used for?

To compare the relative importance of variables those, have a high degree of uncertainty with those with less uncertainty.

the purpose of carrying out an assumption's analysis

To measure the validity of risk assumptions.

These include co-location and ground rules:

Tools and techniques of develop project team

Risk Threshold

Up to the threshold level, the implemented risk response is effective. If the threshold is exceeded, the response will be overwhelmed and will no longer work. (Gave the sand bag example)

performance analysis

Verifying that there is a performance deficiency and determining whether that deficiency should be corrected through training or through some other means (such as transferring the employee).

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Risk register

Where you will capture all the information you've learned about individual risks through analysis and subsequent risk management processes including response planning and implementation and monitoring risks. - There are various techniques used for identifying risks in the identify risk process. Which of the following is an output of the identify risk process?

to eliminate issues

Which of the below is not a reason to perform risk management on a project?

Name of the person who identified the risk

Which of the following is not a key component in the risk register?

Reserve Analysis

Which of the following is not a tool/technique for performing quantitative risk analysis? - - it is important to monitor usage of contingency reserve through reserve analysis. - The contingency reserve is a planned risk response for both positive and negative risks. - That means, some months the remaining reserve will be lower and other months it could be higher. - The reserve usage can be tracked using a burn down chart.

Delays in obtaining required approvals

Which of the following risk events is most likely to interfere with attaining a project's schedule objective?

Perform quantitative risk analysis

Which risk management process has watchlist as an output?

transfer

Which risk response strategy does buying an insurance policy represent? - Your project is ready to move into the maintenance and support phase. However, you know the penalties associated with a service level agreement (SLA) breach is quite steep and your organization's inexperienced maintenance team is likely to breach SLA's from time to time till they gain more experience. Therefore, you convince your management to source the maintenance activity to a more experienced third-party organization and then proceed to sign an agreement with the third-party vendor to maintain the same SLAs you have in place with your customer. The agreement with that third-party organization also includes the same penalty clause you have with your customer. What kind of risk response strategy have you employed here?

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Perform an identification of risks

You are a project manager for the construction of a major new manufacturing plant that is unlike any that has been done before. The project cost is estimated at $30,000,000, and the project will make use of three sellers. Once begun, the project cannot be cancelled, as there will be a large expenditure on plant equipment. When managing the project, it is most important to carefully:

Document them and revisit them during project monitoring and controlling

You are iterating the project management plan and will be meeting with the sponsors to get approval . There have been some problems on recent projects because the projects were started quickly and it was assumed that there would be few challenges. You know that the sponsors will want assurances that his project will not have similiar issues. You have evaluated the approach and have planned the project, including how you will manage risk, in order to deliver a better outcome. You have a few minor risks on the watch list. What, if anything, should be done with those risks?

Document the risk items, and calculate the expected monetary value based on the probability and impact of the occurrences

You believe that the project you have undertaken is relatively straightforward, with less risk than most other projects you have worked on. Therefore, you do not spend a long time on risk identification. While preparing your risk responses, you identify secondary risks that could result in serious consequences later in the project. What should you do?

Project sponsor

You have been appointed as the manager of a new, large, and complex project. Because this project is business critical and highly visible, senior management has told you to analyze the project's risks and prepare response strategies for them as soon as possible. The organization has risk management procedures that are seldom used or followed, and has had a history of handling risks badly. The project's first milestone is in two weeks. In preparing the risk response plan, input from which of the following is generally least important?

Escalate it to someone who has the authority

You have identified a negative risk (threat) that' high probability and impact. Unfortunately, you (the project manager) do not have the authority to approve the required actions. What is the most appropriate risk response for this situation?

Monitor the weather and have a contingency plan

You were in the middle of a two year project to deploy new technology to field office across the country. A hurricane caused power outages just when the upgrade was near completion. When the power was restored, all the project reports and historical data were lost, with no way of retrieving them. What should have been done to prevent this problem?

Workarounds

You will never be able to identify 100% of the potential risks for your project. That means you'll get the occasional surprise when a previously unidentified risk occurs. They are unplanned responses to previously identified risks.

Accept the risk

Your team has come up with 434 risks and 16 major causes of those risks. The project is the last in a series of projects that the team has worked on together. The sponsor is very supportive, and a lot of time was invested in making sure the project work was complete and signed off by all key stakeholders. During project planning, the team cannot come up with an effective way to mitigate or insure against a risk. It is not work that can be outsourced, nor can it be deleted. What would be the best solution?

To help the team rank the project risks

the purpose of determining risk tolerance

Update the risk status as expired

do this with a potential risk that is associated with a work effort that has been completed and closed


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