359 Exam 2

To what extent is Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi different from Maliki in relations with the United States and Iran?

Abadi sought to balance American and Iranian support and has tried to remain neutral in regional power struggles. He has also adopted a much more inclusive approach to domestic politics.

How do both China and the United States share "an extreme superiority complex"? What are the implications of this characteristic for the relationship?

Both see themselves as the vanguard of civilization. China: Other states are tributaries. US: benevolent hegemony, believes in the rule of law

Hikotani: To what extent is Japan surrounded by "undemocratic and increasingly hostile" states?

Japan is surrounded by undemocratic and increasingly hostile states considering its neighbors being North Korea, who since January has launched missiles in Japan's vicinity 11 times, and China, who has continued its buildup of islands in the South China Sea. And in the face of such developments, Japan remains heavily dependent on the United States for its own security.

How does President Reagan's response to Lebanon reflect the moneyball approach?

Reagan withdrew the marines from Lebanon because he realized that the US marines could never bring the situation under control, the US did not have vital interest in Lebanon, and the US presence was not in the cause of world peace.

How well do the two wars against Saddam Hussein fit with the Powell doctrine?

The First Gulf War fit well, but the second did not. War of necessity v war of choice.

To what extent was Prime Minister Maliki's government in Iraq a friend of the U.S.? a friend of Iran?

The decision to keep him in place played into the hands of Iran.

Sky: What should President Trump not declare "mission accomplished" in Iraq after the defeat of ISIS?

What happens in Iraq does not stay in Iraq and ISIS retains the capacity to conduct attacks internationally. As such, US support is still needed to strengthen the Iraqi state and to discourage the region from filling the power vacuum.

What exactly is the Kurdish question? What is U.S. policy toward the Kurds?

Will they gain independence? The US continues to support a unified Iraq.

American Policy Toward Arab World in the 1970s and 1980s

o "Anchors" of American policy-support for Iran and Saudi Arabia in the 1970's - Pivotal states in terms of American foreign policy in Arab World-biggest and most influential states in area-Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran. o Restore ties with Egypt under Anwar Sadat by 1972 o Iranian Revolution in 1979 o Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, tilt toward Iraq o "Dual Containment" policy of Iraq and Iran - Provided assistance to Iraq bc we did not want Iran to win. The United States had a long-standing strategic doctrine in the Middle East not to let any one country become so powerful that they could control the entire Gulf region's oil supply.

What are some components of the "forward-deployed diplomacy" that Secretary Clinton proposes for American policy toward the Asia-Pacific?

o "Forward-deployed diplomacy" means continuing to dispatch the full range of our diplomatic assets to every country and corner of the Asia-Pacific region. o Our strategy will have to keep accounting for and adapting to the rapid and dramatic shifts playing across Asia. o Six key lines of action: (1) strengthening bilateral security alliances, (2) deepening our working relationships with emerging powers, (3) engaging with regional multilateral institutions, (4) expanding trade and investment, (5) forging a broad-based military presence, and (6) advancing democracy and human rights.

Iraq Resolution-P.L. 107-243, October 16, 2002

o "The President is authorized to use the Armed Forces of the United States as he determines to be necessary and appropriate in order to (1)defend the national security...against the continuing threat posed by Iraq; and (2) enforce all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq." o Specific to Iraq

Authorization for the Use of Military Force Resolution (AUMF) Public Law 107-40 September 18, 2001

o "the president is authorized to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001...." o Can attack anyone

What is the role of allies and friends in a moneyball foreign policy approach? How do allies and friends affect American costs?

o A money ball approach guides us to rely on willing and able friends and allies to build partnerships, ties that are based on respect for the interests. o With this, the US can afford to remain the one nation with influence in every region of the world, but only if we rely on our partners to share the costs and risks. o The best way to manage our cost is to stop trying to police every neighborhood.

Would a moneyball approach fight terrorism and use drones? Explain.

o A money ball approach would fight terrorism to avoid the security and prosperity damage the terrorism can persuade us to inflict on ourselves. o The US military should use drones because they offer a low-cost, low-risk method of killing those who would kill Americans.

On what issues has India begun to play a larger role in the international arena?

o A more confident India, eager to shape, rather than simply react to, global event, has already made its presence felt diplomatically. o For example, climate change has been an issue India has begun to play a larger role in through multilateral climate negotiations. o Additionally, on defense and security, India has strengthened its capacity over the past decade to such an extent that US secretaries of defense now routinely refer to India as a net provider of regional security.

North Korea and US Framework Agreement

o Agreed Framework for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in Oct 1994. o North Korea would freeze its existing nuclear program o US and others provide two light water reactors for nuclear energy, financed by KEDO (US, South Korea, and Japan) - US provided 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil - US and North Korea work toward full normalization of relations

US Policy in the Middle East

o American involvement and interest in the Middle East o Largely a post-WWII involvement o Accelerated with the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 o Accelerated with the emergence of the containment policy

What are some problems with different military options for dealing with North Korea? What would be the impact of a North Korean nuclear attack?

o Any attempt to "decapitate" the regime would be a gamble of epic proportions. Kim may well have ordered his general to launch all available weapons of mass destruction at the enemy if he is killed in a first strike. o US leaders should also resist the temptation to hope that limited, or surgical, conventional attacks on North Korean missile test sites would end the nuclear threat bc Kim is irrational and even a limited attack by the US would appear to North Korea as the beginning of an invasion. o And because no first strike could destroy every North Korean missile and nuclear weapon, the US and its allies would always face the prospect of nuclear retaliation. o The consequences of an NK nuclear attack would be catastrophic.

Justification of the Iraq War-Pre-invasion

o Applying the Bush Doctrine "tyrants and terrorist" and WMD o Democratization of the Middle East o "Coalition of the willing" not UN authorization o March 19th, 2003-Shock and awe

According to Ayres, what are two or three global organizations where India should be included? What should be the American position on India joining such organizations as outlined by Ayres?

o Ayres suggests India should be included in: (1) APEC, and Washington should support Indian membership, something it has so far refrained from doing, (2) OECD / IEA, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: India is included as a "key partner" but is not counted as a member, and (3) UN Security Council membership given its population and contributions to UN peacekeeping. o Washington should seek to make good on its promise of working toward permanent membership for India in a reformed and expanded Security Council. o The US must do a better job of normalizing the reality of India's rise and overtly emphasize the country's importance to US national interests and to the world, just as Washington assumes the importance of so many of its close European partners. Washington should embrace-rather than merely await-its arrival.

Geopolitical Challenges for the United States in the Indian Ocean

o Balancing strategy among India, China, and US to keep Indian Ocean open o Anti-piracy efforts in Western Indian Ocean o "NATO of the Seas" in the Indian Ocean o Regional alliance cooperation in the region as well

US-Japanese Relations

o Bases of US Japanese Ties - US roles in rebuilding Japan and imposing democracy - Military security pact as principle basis of the relationship; the "Yoshida Doctrine" - Allowed US to intervene in Japan's domestic politics --> 51 Treaty -> allowed US to have bases in Japan -> changed in 1960 to rid of domestic element, still guaranteed security. -Rely upon the US for security and Japan will focus attention on economic development -- Commitment - Strong economic ties with Japan; deficits in trade were accepted as mechanism for modernization o Japan remains the principle US security ally in Asia; second largest overseas trading partner for US

Some Economic Disputes

o Beef purchases over "mad cow" disease over the past decades plus; some lifting of restriction over the past decade but not completely o Access by American insurance companies to Japan market o Some tariffs on steel imports by Japan o Agricultural import restrictions and agricultural subsidies o Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP)-goods, services, agriculture, investment, etc., Japan joined late in the negotiations.

In what ways, did candidate Trump criticize Japan? How were those critiques received in Japan, and how did they contrast with Obama's actions and reception in Japan?

o Before and during the campaign, Trump repeatedly criticized Tokyo, accusing it of manipulating Japan's currency and unfairly shutting out US cars from the Japanese market (protectionist) o He questioned the US-Japanese alliance, arguing that Japan and South Korea should cough up more money to retain US military bases, speculated that Japan "may very well be better off" with its own atomic weapons, and suggested that the would consider ending the US defense commitment to Japan. o For the Japanese, accordingly, there was more than enough reason to doubt the new US president's competency and willingness to maintain the alliance. o In contrast, President Obama's "pivot" to Asia had been seen as successful form the Japanese point of view. The US military's quick and effective response to Japan's 2011 earthquake and tsunami was widely appreciated. Indeed, Obama was the first US President to visit Hiroshima and according to a poll just before the US election a majority of the Japanese population saw ties with America as a positive thing.

Alternate Strategies by US toward North Korea

o Bilateral approach-Clinton and Obama (Agreed Framework and "strategic patience") o Multilateral approach-Bush ("Six-Party Talks) o What will be Trump approach? -Bilateral negotiations, "maximum pressure", "fire and fury" o How does the US relationship with China, South Korea, and Japan fit into relations with North Korea?

US-South Korea Free Trade Agreement

o Came in force March 15th, 2012 o 80% of US exports to Korea of consumer and industrial products will be duty free o 95% of bilateral trade in these areas within five years; most remaining tariffs within 10 years o Agricultural barriers eliminated or phased out; auto sales an issue -> Obama worked to get more to SK o Variety of services, including financial services, more immediate access to Korea market o Projected $10 billion increase in US exports; 70,000 jobs saved o Trump has said he is interested in re-negotiating this Free Trade Agreement o SK wants to play mediator role between US and North Korea

The Clinton Administration and China

o Candidate Clinton campaigned against the "Butchers in Beijing" o After election, he adopted engagement policy of the Bush administration: Economic reasons --> Trade relations o "Delink" Human Rights from trade relations with China - Human Rights would not play a role in trade o Succeeded in obtaining Permanent Normal Trading Relations (PNTR) with China from the Congress in 2000 o A "Strategic Partnership"

China and the Obama Administration

o China and America- a "mature relationship" now o Long-term issues remain: trade tensions, values of China's currency, climate change, human rights, censorship of internet o Strategic economic dialogue with China; cybersecurity now o US needs help from China on other global issues-Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, North Korea

China and the Indian Ocean

o China is creating a "string of pearls" for the Indian Ocean o Naval base in Pakistan and port facility o Refueling in Sri Lanka o Container facility in Bangladesh o Canal across Isthmus of Kra in Thailand

The Rise of China

o China's economic power; increased military power; enlarged "soft power" o What strategy should the US follow toward China? o Policy options for dealing with a rising China - Accelerate competition with China - Maintain the status quo with rebalance - More intense cooperation; yield to Chinese prerogatives in Asia

Policy Options with China

o China's president Xin Jinping and some of his priorities: o China as an alternate model o China with global influence by 2050 o China's communist party should lead --> central decision makers o China as a world-class military by 2050 o China is open to global investment o Prosperity to all of China by 2035 o Threatens tributaries (Taiwan, Tibet) that if they attempt to break away they will be met with force o Wants to rid Chinese system from corruption o China open to globalization investment o 2013: One Belt, One Road initiative -create a transportation system via land and maritime route through the Indian Ocean "New Silk Road"

Tiananmen Square and US-Chinese Relations

o Democracy movement in China and role of the fax machine o Demonstrations for several days - CNN then blocked o June 3-4th, 1989, then attack on the square; a large number of people killed o American policy reaction: executive order v. Congressional sanctions o George H.W. Bush declared the US ties would continue with China - Imposes sanctions via executive order --> Congress tried to override E.O. with legal sanctions - US arms sales and any diplomatic contact o Violated that - Automatically extended VISA's of Chinese students so they didn't have to return and suffer punishment

East China Sea Dispute

o Dispute over Senkaku (Japan) (Diaoyu) (China) Islands in East China Sea between Japan and China o Chinese activist landed on islands; Japanese government bought some of them from private owner -> huge international incident -> started dispute w/ China bc nationalist interests o Anti-Japanese protest and boycott of Japanese goods in China o Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ): air traffic must give prior notification to Japan or China bc they overlap with one another -> tension o US position on these disputes - Support Japan on island disputes -> see Islands as part of security pact - Do not like ADIZ bc freedom of navigation

Mechanisms for Managing US-Japanese Trade Relations

o Each of the several administrations have established an initiative with Japan for managing these relations o Some examples: - GHW Bush Structural Impediments Initiative - Clinton US-Japan Framework for New Economic Partnership - GW Bush Economic Partnership with Japan o Security Consultative Committee (2+2) meeting; Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State and Japanese counterparts; US-Japan Harmonization Initiative o Trump and Abe-a bilateral trade pact to replace TPP?

Japan's Triple Disasters

o Earthquake-9.0; 15,00 deaths; 4,000 missing o Tsunami-widespread destruction; 500,000 homes damaged or destroyed; 80,000 homeless; half a million people displaces o Fukushima Nuclear Reactor Damage-evacuation of 80,000 residents; radiation damage to food chain o Estimated economic damage: $200-$300 billion o US-Japanese alliance cooperation during the crisis resurrected ties--$95 million in US aid.

Normalization of Relations

o Elements of the diplomatic bargain o Political and economic benefit of normalization to the US - Stability in Asia; trade and investments; impact on Soviet/American relationship o Political and economic benefits of normalization to the P.R.C. - US involvement in Asia; stabilizer against the Soviets; advance Deng Xiaoping's "four modernizations (Agriculture, Industry, Military, and Science and Technology). "Capitalist roader" o American recognizes PRC as the sole government in China o Economic and political benefits for US: maintain ties with Taiwan; stabilizing relation with Asia; managing relations with Soviet Union; trade.

Chinese Relationship: Early Development

o Emergence of the Relationship in the early 1970 - US received letter that China would be interested in establishing ties w/ US. o Key events - "Ping-pong" exchange in April 1971 - Kissinger secret trip to Beijing in June-July 1971 - Announcement of Nixon visit for Feb 1972.

"Asian Pivot" and US Responses to Chinese Expansion

o Enhanced military presence in China o Continue close ties with Australia; enhance ties w/ New Zealand --> ANZUS treaty - security commitment o Raised America ties with states with the first island chain and well as South Korea and Japan o Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) --> started by Bush, completed by Obama. - Important for trade and security - Strategic defense guidance: defense policy bc of growing Asia would shift its policy toward Asia, reduce US involvement in Europe, and stabilize relations in Middle East o 60% toward Europe, 40% elsewhere --> to 60% Asia, 40% elsewhere o TPP11 --> OG TPP abandoned by Trump -> was going to be economic linchpin for Chinese economic expansion --> economic element for "Asian Pivot"

Overall, what are the costs and benefits of a moneyball foreign policy?

o Everyone else is already paying this more rational game of money ball foreign policy. o We should do these things because they serve US interests as Money ball values are the product of solid American thrift and common sense. o It less important that our leaders spend less than that they spend wisely. o The Marshal Plan remains the wisest investment in American foreign policy history.

Chinese Naval Expansion

o First Island Chain-Korean Peninsula, Kuril Islands, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Australia - East China Sea and South China Sea - China wants to protect boundaries but no expansionist tendencies --> China moving into being a Blue Water Navy recently. - Idea: 1st lay claim to 1st Island chain of state to protect the 9-dash line that they believe is part of their sovereignty - Second Island Chain --> expansion in Asian Pacific o Second Island Chain - A string of islands in American possession or through ties to America - Guam, Mariana Islands, Solomon Islands o A2/AD strategy - anti-access / area denial - US believes China taking second chain islands to push the US out by of A2/AD o Islands #1 trading partner is China --> not just Naval but also economic reasons --> regional partnership agreement --> China rather have bilateral relations

What are three characteristics of China's strategic behavior? Is deal making possible between the U.S. and China considering these characteristics?

o First, in both war and peace, Chinese strategy is unabashedly driven by realpolitik and unencumbered by any serious need to justify Chinese behavior in terms of international law or ethical norms bc they weren't involved in making them, so they aren't restrained by them. This allows the Chinese government to be ruthlessly flexible. o China has an obsessively holistic strategic worldview-Chinese planners see everything as connected to everything else. o War for Chinese strategists is primarily psychological and political. Traditionally, the Chinese have sought victory not in a decisive battle but through incremental moves designed to gradually improve their position. o Yes, deal-making is possible the better the Trump administration understands how Beijing sees China's role in the world and the country's core interests, the better prepared it will be to negotiate.

According to Sagan, what factors make the current North Korean crisis more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis?

o For one, the Cuban Missile Crisis did not involve a new country becoming a nuclear power. NK already presides over an arsenal that US intelligence agencies believe contains as many as 60 nuclear warheads. o Today, the world faces an even more complex and dangerous problem: a three-way fear of surprise attack-NK, SK, and the US. o Further, the leaders involved making this more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The Indian Ocean as the Center Stage of the 21st Century

o From Africa and the Middle East to South Asia and Southeast Asia and beyond o Western edge-Somalia, Yemen, Iran, and Pakistan o Eastern edge-India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Indonesia o Source of competition for India and China

US Policy in the Middle East: Key Interests

o Geopolitical concerns with the Soviet Union / Russia o Moral / democratic concern via Israel o Oil interest o More recently, ISIS / Iran

What are some future actions and positions that Hikotani proposes for Japan in dealing with the changing liberal democratic order?

o Hikotani suggests that going forward, Tokyo cannot be preoccupied with simply managing Trump. Instead, it must also seek ways to play a greater role in its region and around the world. Even for immediate challenges such as North Korea, thinking beyond the bilateral relationship will be crucial. o This is to say that going forward, Tokyo will have to step up and do more to preserve the liberal democratic order, which now lacks leadership from Washington. o This will mean a role reversal for Japan: rather than being the beneficiary of a liberal order led by the US, it now must do everything it can to save that order-and keep the United States from withdrawing from it altogether. o In Asia, Japan should work with other countries to keep the TPP alive and to make sure it will be possible for the US to join it in the future. o Along the same lines, Tokyo should support Washington's reentry into the Paris climate accord. o Japan can also play a leading role in coordinating with other Asian countries to prevent the North Korean crisis from turning into a tragedy. o Keeping the door open for the US is a role Japan should seek, not just in Asia but also worldwide.

Some Current US-Chinese Issues: Social / Political

o Human Rights Issues: forces abortions; use of prison labor for product exports; treatment of Tibet populations o Visit of the Dalai Lama to Washington in 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016 o Political cooperation on regional issues-Taiwan, North Korea, Iraq, Iran

Iraq War of 2003

o IAEA inspections off and on with Iraq on WMD facilities-a cat and mouse game o UN and US Resolutions to Justify actions o Phases of the War-Pre-invasion, occupation, post-occupation

What factors explain how Japanese opinion of the Trump administration has turned around?

o In wake of the PM visit with Trump, the Japanese opinion of Trump was turned around. o Some factors contributing to the turnaround in opinion included: (1) most of the Japanese public understands that the US-Japanese alliance is the only viable means of guaranteeing Japan's security, leading to a strong preference for the status quo, (2) The cost in terms of military spending to replace them and the broader economic harm would be in the hundreds of billions of dollars, (3) Much of what has consumed US domestic politics is simply difficult to comprehend in a Japanese context. o Accordingly, as long as the bilateral relationship is successfully managed, most of the Japanese public seems willing to overlook controversial aspects of Trump's presidency. Many people in Japan have decided that it is better to have the bully on your side.

What role do India and Indonesia play in America's Asian strategy?

o India and Indonesia are two of the most dynamic and significantly democratic powers of Asia, and both countries with which the Obama administration has pursued broader, deeper, and more purposeful relationships. o The stretch of sea from the Indian Ocean through the Strait of Malacca to the Pacific contains the world's most vibrant trade and energy routes. o Together, India and Indonesia already account for almost a quarter of the world's population. o They are key drivers of the global economy, important partners for the US, and increasingly central contributors to peace and security in the region. And their importance is likely to grow in the years ahead.

India and the Indian Ocean

o India and increasing influence on the Indian Ocean area - Oil import dependent; 65% of its energy needs are imported - Coal from Mozambique - Imported liquid natural gas o India is enlarging its Navy and will increasingly compete with China in the Indian Ocean o US navy is the outside power seeking to contribute to balancing there

What are some of the international organizations that India has joined or participated in recently?

o India has become part of the BRICS. o Also, in 2017, India joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and it maintains an active presence in other institutions far outside the US' orbit, such as the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. o While India focuses on gaining a seat in traditional global organizations still dominated by the West, India has shown that it is also willing to help build other regional arenas to have a greater voice.

Ayres: What are some characteristics of India? How has India begun to change its role, and how should the United States respond?

o India is the country with the world's third-largest military by personnel strength, fifth-largest defense budget, and seventh-largest economy but isn't a member of the UN security council. o India has begun to push for the country to find it's due place in global councils-like the UN security council-considering their growing economy and enhanced military capabilities. o India has begun to see itself as a "leading power" laying overt claim to a new, more central place in the world. o The US and India have begun talks of being "strategic partners"-a relationship of cooperation, but not a formal alliance. o The US should reconceptualize the US-Indian relationship to better manage differences with a power that prizes policy independence above all. o And they must address the inequity of India's exclusion from major institutions of global governance by championing Indian membership and giving New Delhi a long-overdue place at the table.

How large and advanced is the Indian military?

o India is translating its economic might into military power and it already counts itself as part of a select club of countries with advanced defense technology, including a nuclear weapons program. o India now has a force strength of nearly 1.4 million troops on active duty and nearly 1.2 million reservists. o India has become the world's fifth-largest military spender in 2016, ahead of France and the UK. o India is the world's top importer of military equipment. India is also increasingly producing its own advanced defense technologies, instead of importing them.

What are some current dimensions of the Indian economy? What does the demography of India suggest for the future of the economy?

o India's GDP is 3 trillion dollars which has surpassed Canada and Italy and is projected that India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2029, lagging only China and the US. o India's sheer size and its youthful demographics offer the prospect of enormous economic growth. o India's middle class is growing which wields market power and explains why giant multinational companies have India in their sights. 2/3 of the emerging middle class will be in Asia.

The G.W. Bush Administration and China

o Initial policy to move away from "strategic partnership" by Clinton - "Selective partnership" used instead o America Intelligence Plane forced to land in Chinese territory-Hainan Island o China after 9/11 supportive; US toned down criticism of China over Tawain, missile sale abroad, and Tibet. o China opposed Iraq, but contributed to reconstruction o China's cooperation on Six-Party Talks over North Korea; China a "selective partnership" - Multi-lateral talks more effective than bilateral talks.

US-Iraq Relations from 1990

o Invasion of Kuwait, August 1990; first Persian Gulf or Iraq War; first post-cold war conflict; "war of necessity" - Money ball: need international support for conflict. Two UN resolutions important. o "Hundred Hours" War o UN Resolutions 678 and 687 on Iraq o Iraq War of 2003- "war of choice"

Invasion and Post-Invasion

o Invasion proceeded quickly-April 9th, 2003, fall of Baghdad; statue of Saddam Hussein o Post-invasion hostility o The Sunni "awakening and the "surge strategy" o US combat ended Aug. 31, 2010 o Rise of IS, ISSI, and ISIL

What role did Iran play in Iraq in the battle with ISIS? Has Iran remained influential in Iraq?

o Iran provided military advisors and certain Shiite militias in the battle with ISIS in order to extend its political influence into Iraq. o Their continued presence undermines the legitimacy of the state and keeps Iraq from becoming strong enough to push back against Iranian influence.

US-Iranian Relations: Background

o Iranian Revolution and seizure of American hostages on November 4, 1979; held for 444 days o U.S. imposed sanctions on Iran and those and others continue; state sponsor of terrorism list o Iran-Contra Affair as means to get American hostages in Lebanon released o Iran-US; some indirect discussion after 9/11; some help via al-Qaeda, Taliban o UN Resolution on uranium enrichment; P5+1 (5 security council + Germany) talks initiated 2006.

Global Security Issues for the US and Japan

o Japan's "Three No's" or Three Non-Nuclear Principles - No possessing - No making - No introducing nuclear weapons - Neither confirm nor deny that there is a nuclear presence o US wants more burden-sharing on security matters by Japan and Japan has responded they can't bc Article 9, but they have increased peacekeeping efforts: - Self-Defense Force work over Cambodia in 1992. Tsunami in 2005; reconstruction efforts in Iraq and aid supports in Afghanistan; patrols in South China and East China Seas o US wants increased defense spending by Japan; about 1% of GNP; less responsive on this matter, but strategic dialogue with US and Australia for the Asia-Pacific region o US wants foreign aid and debt relief assistance from Japan - US wants 2% o US wants sustained political cooperation o Article 9 of the Constitution; Japanese legislative change in 2015 - Japan cannot have offensive force only self-defense - Abe (PM) wants to change Article 9; 2020 o TPP and TPP11 -> March 8th

Long-standing Sources of Trade Disputes

o Japanese concerns over the years: - High US budget deficits; devalue dollar, interest rates increase - High US interest rates - High value of the US dollar o US raises interest rates in light of high budget deficits -> Japan losses business o US concerns: - Protectionist policies - Tariff and non-tariff barriers - Impact of the structure of Japanese society o Examples of issues-semiconductors, construction industry, agricultural products.

JCOPA

o Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): an executive agreement (not treaty) to ensure that Iran's nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful, imposes restrictions on Iran's stockpiles of uranium and its ability to enrich it o Recognizes Iran's right to enrich uranium and eventually to industrialize it o Requires a weak inspection system o Will encourage other states in the region to go nuclear

Japanese Domestic Politics and US-Japanese Relations

o Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) long dominated Japanese politics until 2009 and relied on the Yoshida Doctrine o Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) under Prime Minister Hatoyama said "I do not believe it is a good idea for Japan to depend on the US for her security over the next 50 or 100 years." o Current LDP Prime Minister Shinzo Abe moved back to stronger alliance ties; much more of a Japanese nationalist

How did ISIS emerge in Iraq, and what factors gave rise to it?

o Maliki (PM) reneged on his promises to the Sunni Awakening labeling Sunni politicians as terrorists and driving them out of the political process, and he ordered the security forces to violently crush Sunni dissent. o In doing so, Maliki created conditions that allowed the new group to rise out of the ashes of al Qaeda in Iraq. o ISIS proclaimed itself the defender of Sunnis against Maliki's regime and many Sunnis determined that ISIS was the lesser of two evils.

What should be some guiding principles for moneyball foreign policy concerning allies, negotiations, and policy flexibility?

o Money ball would suggest that America should never walk alone because allies allow the US to share dangers and burdens with its partners which is good for the solider and good for the taxpayer. Whenever possible, America's leaders should "lead from behind." o Money ball demands a more modest and realistic foreign policy that respects the core interests of other powerful states and must be willing to negotiate-especially with enemies. o Flexibility is another critical element of a successful Money ball foreign policy and another means of managing costs.

How would you characterize the Japanese public's response and view of Trump and the United States after the 2016 election?

o Most Japanese people were concerned about the result of Trump winning the 2016 election. o Indeed, in a Dec. 2016 poll 61% of respondents said they were "worried" about the US-Japanese relations under Trump. o In another poll, conducted after Trump's inauguration, 84% of respondents said they feared that the world would become less stable under Trump, and more than half said the US-Japanese relations would worsen. o Japanese confidence in US leadership fell from 78% to 24% from the end of Obama's presidency, 80% of the public said the considered Trump arrogant, and 56% considered him dangerous.

India: America's New Ally in Asia

o Movement away from Soviet ties, nuclear agreement, greater cooperation and turn to US. o Greater importance of Asia-population and development for the future o Common language, common democratic institutions w/ India o Growing ties with the US-American-India Trade Foundation has become pivotal and instrumental to fostering the relationship o Greater investment by US-service sector as an example o Ongoing negotiations for US-India Bilateral Investment Treaty 2009-2016; not continued by Trump administration o Soured relations - - Trade tie w/ Soviets - Nuclear testing for "peaceful uses only" --> nuclear explosion o Indian-America lobby -> contributed to emerging change in policy

North Korea and the United States

o North Korea - the "hermit kingdom" o No US diplomatic relations with North Korea o NPT 1. Nuclear states will remain nuclear 2. Those states will seek to reduce arsenals to total disbarment 3. All non-nuclear states signing NPT agree to renounce forever the development of nuclear weapons (nuclear energy OK) o Iran Nuclear Agreement -How much they can enrich uranium ? o US has supported peaceful unification of North and South Korea o US has called for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula o North Korea joined the NPT in 1985; announced intention to withdraw in 1993; withdrew from IAEA in 1994.

What are the dangers of an accidental war on the Korean Peninsula? How could a preemptive-war plan look like a first-strike strategy?

o North Korea alone could inflict some 64,000 fatalities in Seoul on the first day of war. o A major attack on South Korea could also kill many of the roughly 154,000 America civilians and 28,000 US service members living there. o Further, if North Korea used its large arsenal of chemical and biological weapons, the fatalities would be even higher. o Finally, there are a number of nuclear power plants that could be damaged, spreading radioactive materials, in an attack. o All told, one million people could die on the first day of a second Korean war.

North Korea Nuclear Activities

o Oct. 2002-North Korea announced it was pursuing a uranium enrichment program; expelled IAEA inspectors and announced withdrawal from NPT (again) o IAES: responsible for inspecting all nuclear energy facilities of all countries. o Six-Party Talks in 2003-Japan, South Korea, North Korea, China, US, and Russia. o July 5th, 2006 missile tests by NK. o UN Resolution 1695-Sanctions-missile and missile related items and technology to DPRK o Oct. 2006 North Korea announced successful test of nuclear device o UN Resolution 1718-Sanctions-large-scale arms, nuclear technology, and luxury goods. o Feb. 13th, 2007: Six-Party Talks Agreement - Shut down and seal Yongbyon nuclear facilities and North Korea must list nuclear-related actives - US and Japan normalize relations - All would work to provide heavy fuel oil - Take North Korea off "State Sponsors of Terrorism" list and take North Korea off Trading with the Enemy Act o By the end of 2008, negotiations broke down over verification agreements o April 2009 missile test by North Korea; UNSC condemnation; withdrew from Six-Party Talks o May 2009-second nuclear test o UN Security Council Resolution 1847-Additional sanctions, including inspections on the high seas "if...reasonable grounds to suspect a violation." o Missile test in 2012-UN Res. 2087 o Third nuclear test in 2013-UN Res. 2094 o Fourth nuclear test in 1/6/2016-Further UN sanctions o Fifth nuclear test 9/9/16-UN tightened sanctions-cap on coal exports; clarify "livelihood exemption"; sanctions on officials and entities o Sixth nuclear test in 2017-Yet again UN sanctions o UN Resolution 2087-calls for compliance with earlier resolutions on nuclear development o UN Resolution 2094-luxury goods, financial sanctions, interdiction of cargo is reasonable ground to suspect prohibited items-March 2013 - Search of all cargo to North Korea - All small arms sales to North Korea prohibited - Financial sanctions on North Koreans banks, assets - Limiting or banning exports of coal, iron, goal, titanium, and rare earth minerals

Major Regional Security Issues for US and Japan

o Okinawa and base realignment issue o US relations with China-Japanese island dispute with China; Japanese Coast Guard-Chinese trawler incident; Reaffirmation of Article 5 by the US. o North Korea and Six-Party Talks; strongly supportive of UN sanctions; opposed to any American accommodation on nuclear North Korea o South Korea-historical rivalry; island dispute; fear of North Korea

Iran Nuclear Agreement Presentations

o Options: 1. Stop signing sanction waivers 2. Decertify the deal 3. Enforce the deal 4. Impose new sanctions 5. Other nations negotiate the deal 6. Do nothing o Trump "worst deal"-Sunset Clause -> not time, context

US-South Korean Relations

o Origins of the relationship-US and Soviet Trusteeship over North and South with the 38th Parallel as the dividing line at the end of WWII - Major anchor in NE Asia - along with Japan and Australia o Separate republics declared in North and South o North Korean invasion of South on June 25th, 1950 o US became even more involved with this "first test of containment"; armistice agreement in 1953, but no peace treaty; UN Command still operates there o US security pact for South Korea in Oct. 1953; US maintains military personnel in South Korea (ca. 28,000).

Chinese American Relations: Origins

o Oscillations in the Chinese-American relationship since 1949-No formal diplomatic relations from 1949-1979/80 o Circumstances of 1968-1969: Vietnam War - Decline of US role in Asia - Nixon's views in Foreign Affairs in 1967: Asia after Vietnam - Sino-Soviet clashes: Mao v. Soviet over how revolutionary communist movement would be - Internal developments in China o US did not recognize the People's Republic of China o Soviet v. Sino boarder disputes o Mao saw Soviets as "state capitalists" o Mao: greatest threat to China is "state Capitalism" (Soviets) and second greatest threat is Capitalism (US) o Asia after Vietnam: US could not isolate / bill people in the world.

Who are the vital allies of the US in the Asia-Pacific theater? What is the strategy for successful alliances with Asia-Pacific countries? (JSAPT)

o Our treaty alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Thailand are the fulcrum for our strategic turn to the Asia-Pacific. o The strategy for successful alliance with Asia-Pacific countries cannot be to simply sustain them-we need to update them for a changing world. o In this effort is guided by three core principles: (1) we have to maintain political consensus on the core objectives of our alliances, (2) we have to ensure that our alliances are nimble and adaptive so they can successfully address new challenges and seize new opportunities, and (3) we have to guarantee that the defense capabilities and communications infrastructure of our alliances are operationally and materially capable of deterring provocations.

Changing US-Japan Relations

o Rapid Japanese Economic Growth in the 1960s and 1970s - US supported this o Emerging Economic Frictions-textile quotas, floating exchange rates, impositions of 10% surcharge - US made decision to accept deficits - Trade protectionist o Explosion of trade deficit with Japan in the 1980's and beyond: $10 billion in 1979; $57 billion by 1987; and over $80 billion by early 2000's o Today, the trade deficit is about $69 billion, but the American and Japanese concerns in recent years have been Japan's economic recovery, less Japan as an economic threat.

How has Japan engaged in what Hikotani calls "Trump management"? What are the fundamental strategies that it used?

o Rather than panicking, the Japanese government has begun to engage in "Trump management" with the pragmatic support of the Japanese public. o This is to say that going forward, Tokyo will have to step up and do more to preserve the liberal democratic order, which now lacks leadership from Washington. o This will mean a role reversal for Japan: rather than being the beneficiary of a liberal order led by the US, it now must do everything it can to save that order-and keep the United States from withdrawing from it altogether. o The strategies used are to first "disarm" Trump by setting up a meeting between Trump and Abe to disarm and separate Trump from his anti-Japanese accusations from his campaign. o The second strategy was to "disengage" Trump from key policy makers by working to put economic and security policy in separate negotiating channels, both away from the White House.

Market Access with China

o Restriction of service sector to China by American companies o Regulations on foreign technology o Investment treaty and regulation (1,000 regulations) o Agreement on cyber theft of corporate secrets o Intellectual property protections remain an issue o Creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank by PRC.

What is Sagan's prescription for dealing with North Korea and its nuclear weapons?

o Sagan suggest that the US will have to learn to live with a nuclear North Korea. o To do this the US must practice containment and deterrence wisely. o They must deter North Korean leader while also preventing Trump from bumbling into war. o Civilian leaders must convince Kim that the US will not attempt to overthrow his regime unless he begins a war.

Should sanctions and energy resources be used in this foreign policy approach?

o Sanctions are another foreign policy tool that can be effective in the right circumstances-and they will always be cheaper than war. o A money ball foreign policy approach should lead policymakers to allow for the export of significant quantities of some of these new energy reserves to improve ties with key allies.

How does Secretary Clinton make the case for America staying involved in global affairs?

o Secretary Clinton suggest that all regions demand American engagement and leadership bc of or model of free democracy and free enterprise, a model that remains the most powerful source of prosperity and progress known to humankind. o The world looks to the US for leadership bc of our strong economy, strong military, our productivity, and our education and thus we must sustain our global leadership in this century as we did in the last.

Some Current Issues with US and China: Security Issues

o Security and regional issues: Taiwan, East China (Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands) and South China Sea (Spratly and Paracel Islands): US says it should be handled peacefully through negotiations --> US at odds with China on how to handle this. o Various past skirmishes-Battle carries group to Taiwan Straits in 1996; American intelligence plane shot down in 2001 (Hainan Island); Arms Sales to Taiwan (every US president) --> Taiwan Relations Act o Latest arms sales by Obama (1.8 Bill) in 2015 and Trump (1.4 Bill) in 2017.

Dimension of US-South Korea Ties

o Security relationship in light of strategic location of SK-Mutual Defense Treaty, Oct. 1953; USFK-US Force Korea; CINCUNC-UN Command o Three dimensions: Security relationship, promotion of democracy in SK, economic relations o Promotion of democratic change from autocratic rule and martial law to democratic governance by the 1990's. o South Korea is US's sixth largest trading partner across a wide spectrum of goods and services -- $144 billion in 2016; US deficit of $28 billion o Free trade agreement signed with South Korea in 207; largest since NAFTA; non-tariff barriers and market access continue to be issues; agreement completed in 2010 and passed by Congress 2011

According to Sagan, how has Trump's volatility produced a crisis in civil-military relations?

o Senior military leaders should be prepared to ignore belligerent tweets, push back against imprudent policies, and resist any orders that the believe reflect impetuous policies, and resist any orders that they believe reflect impetuous or irrational decision-making by the president.

India Presentation

o Six areas of common interest (Snow) 1. India-American relations concerning China 2. Conflict of interest concerning Pakistan 3. Struggle with Afghanistan 4. Future of Nuclear Weapons 5. Terrorism 6. The Environment o Key turning point: 2005 Nuclear agreement - Change for US and international community - Under NPT any state that had nuclear facilities for peaceful purposes must have facilities inspected by the international community - cannot have nuclear weapons - 2005, India Nuclear Agreement allowed India to keep weapons and only have nuclear energy inspected not weapons - Usually seen as turning point in US-India relationship o Climate change disrupted India-US relationship - Indian has been very resistant to any kind of effort to address climate change bc they were not a developed nation -they were developing and should not be subject to rule and were not the cause of the greenhouse gases o India's role in global governance - India views: India believes they have not been included in global governance given their population and potential - America views: India isn't cooperative and are at odds with American views

What are some of the actions that the Obama administration has initiated to strengthen the bilateral relationship between the US and China. What issues remain unresolved?

o Some actions taken by the Obama administration to strengthen the bilateral relationship with China include the Strategic and Economic Dialogue featuring intensive and expansive talks regarding pressing bilateral issues from security to human rights. o Additionally, the administration worked to establish the Strategic Security Dialogue to increase transparency and reduce the risk of miscalculation or miscues between the two militaries. o Economically, the US and China need to work together to ensure strong, sustained, and balanced future global growth. This means working together on these objectives, but China still needs to take important steps towards reforms. o Currency, human rights, trade, and market access are issues that remain unresolved.

Continuing American Issues with China: Economic Issues

o Some current trade / debt issues with China: - Data for 2017 goods: US exports to China $131 Billion; US imports from China $506 Billion - Trade deficit (goods) for US: $375 Billion - American's debt to China: 1.2 Trillion; 19% of national debt owned by foreign countries - US investment in China--$93 Billion; Chinese investment in US--$28 Billion - Can hold each other hostage --> mutual hostage taking o Most of national debt not owned by foreign countries --> Primarily American banks, unions, and companies that hold that debt.

Why is it so important for the Obama Administration to highlight open, free, transparent, and fair economic relationships with Asia? How does the TTP fit into that kind of an initiative?

o Such attributes characterize healthy economic competition and through engagement in the Asia-Pacific, we are helping to give shape to these principles and showing the world their value. o The TPP will bring together economies from across the Pacific into a single trading community. The hope is that a TPP agreement with high standards of these attributes can serve as a benchmark for future agreements and grow to serve as a platform for broader regional interaction and eventually a free trade area of the Asia-Pacific.

US Policy in the 1950's and 1960's

o Support for Israel o Support for conservative Arab states-Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon o Isolate "radical progressive" regimes-Egypt, Syria, Iraq

Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988

o Target was those countries that engage in protectionist policies against US (Japan, India, Brazil) o Protectionist: an advocate of the policy of shielding a country's domestic industries from foreign competition by taxing imports. o Established "Super 301" section triggers investigation and negotiation for 12-18-month period to eliminate trade barriers o Application to Japan over satellite, supercomputers, and foreign product sectors - Trump has threatened this with China

What is a "moneyball" approach to foreign policy? How does the example from the Strait of Hormuz fit into such an approach?

o The "money ball" approach to foreign policy is the idea that relies on a cold-blooded, interest-driven approach that redefines America's role in the world in a way designed to maximize the return on taxpayer's investment. o This is to say that we can't police every corner, and Money ball promotes America's value, not its values and calls for a rational foreign policy approach that makes America both more secure and more prosperous. o The US secured free passage in the Strait in order to serve US interest in gaining oil from the region.

What is the meaning of "time" for both the U.S. and China? How might that affect the relationship?

o The American and Chinese sense of the past, present, and future are fundamentally distinct. o Americans proudly celebrate their country turning 241 in July; the Chinese are fond of noting that their history spans five millennia. o US leaders often refer to "the American experiment" and their sometimes-haphazard policies reflect that attitude. o China, by contrast, sees itself as a fixture of the universe: it always was, it always will be. o China: expansive sense of time and leaders are careful to distinguish the acute from the chronic and the urgent from the merely important. o US: wants a quick analysis and a quick solution --> compress time.

Clinton: Why is a turn in American policy toward the Asia-Pacific so central to U.S. prosperity and security?

o The Asia-Pacific has become a key driver of global politics. o The region spans over two oceans that are increasingly linked by shipping and strategy. o It boasts over half the world's population. o It includes many of the key engines of the global economy, as well as the largest emitters of greenhouse gases. o It is home to several of our key allies and important emerging powers like China, India, and Indonesia. o Open markets in Asia provide the US with unprecedented opportunities for investment, trade, and access to cutting-edge technology. o Our economic recovery at home will depend on exports and the ability of American firms to tap into the vast and growing consumer base of Asia. o Strategically, maintaining peace and security across the Asia-Pacific is increasingly crucial to global progress.

What are the key contributions that the United States can make to the Asia-Pacific region? What are the expectations that the United States has from those in Asia?

o The Asia-Pacific regions growth and continued growth is largely dependent on the security and stability that has long been guaranteed by the US military. o The US will be better positioned to support humanitarian missions and will provide a robust bulwark against threats or efforts to undermine peace and stability. o Additionally, out most powerful asset as a nation is the power of our values-in particular, our steadfast support for democracy and human rights. o As we deepen our engagement with partners, we will continue to urge them to embrace reforms that would improve governance, protect human rights, and advance political freedoms.

How do China and the United States differ in their view of world order?

o The CCP maintains order by enforcing an authoritarian hierarchy that demands the deference and compliance of citizens and their international behavior reflects similar expectations of order. o By contrast, American leaders aspire to an international rule of law that is essentially US domestic rule of law writ large

What was the Powell doctrine? How does it fit with a money ball approach?

o The Powell doctrine provided a clear and consistent set of guidelines to help politicians decide when war is the last best means of defending US interests. o This fits well in the money ball approach because to have an effective money ball approach will demand our elected leaders have access to a state-of-the-art military and the ability to decide when to use it to further US interests.

The Importance of the Indian Ocean

o The Straits of Hormuz-40% of all traded oil o The Straits of Malacca-40% of all world trade o The Indian Ocean Trade - ½ of the world's container traffic - 70% of the world's petroleum o 90% of global commerce by sea: 65% of all oil by sea o 2013 Xi Jing Ping: One Belt, One Road initiative -create a transportation system via land and maritime route through the Indian Ocean "New Silk Road"

Why is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) important to a moneyball strategy? Why is trade so crucial? How important are Asia and Africa to future U.S. trade?

o The TPP is important to the money ball strategy because trade will be crucial for future US growth, and this deal is as big as they come. o Second, the TPP is the right answer to China's state-driven economic model. The TPP can help counter the growth of the Chinese-style state capitalism and extend US influence in the Pacific. o Trade is crucial as it shapes America's global investment landscape to better serve US interests and enhance growth prospects at home. Lessens the likelihood of wars which saves money. o Asia and Africa are crucial to the future of US trade as a means for obtaining oil, gas, minerals, and metals needed to fuel the economy and create jobs.

Complications and Developments in the Relationship

o The Taiwan Relations Act, April 1979: defined the substantial but non-diplomatic relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan. Peaceful means only. o The Joint Communique in Aug. 1982: Eliminate sale of arms to Taiwan; continued relations with one another. Established official relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China - Arms: qualitative and quantitative --> reduce sale of arms to Taiwan until a final resolution is made --> no true end point "diplomatic immunity" --> ambiguous and didn't really resolve it o Nuclear Cooperation Agreement of 1985, implemented in 1998 after halt with Tiananmen o Military Arms Sales to China in 1985 and beyond

What are the background conditions to the current situation in Iraq as outlined by Sky? What were some mistakes by the United States there?

o The US invaded Iraq on the assumptions (later proved incorrect) that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was developing weapons of mass destruction. o These decisions toppled the government and lead to the collapse of the state and civil war, which allowed al Qaeda in Iraq to gain a foothold and Iran to expand its influence. o The Obama administration failed to uphold the right of the winning bloc to have the first go as forming a government.

Outline the differences between the two countries' views of government and the best form of governance.

o The US recognized that society required government. To design a government that would not tend towards tyranny the US designed a government of "separated institutions sharing power. This deliberately produced constant struggle among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, which led to delay, gridlock, and even dysfunction. But it also provided checks and balances against abuse and centralized government. o The Chinese conception of government and its role in society could hardly be more different. The country's history and cultural records show that when there is a strong center (Beijing) the country is peaceful and prosperous. Accordingly, the sort of strong central government that Americans resist represents to the Chinese the principle agent advancing order and the public good at home and abroad.

What are two or three ways in which Americans and Chinese differ in terms of the conception of the state, economic and individualism? Why are these differences important?

o The US sees government as a necessary evil and believes that the state's tendency toward tyranny and abuse of power must be feared and constrained. o For Chinese, the government is a necessary good, the fundamental pillar ensuring order and preventing chaos. o In American style, free-market capitalism, the government establishes and enforces the rules; state ownership and government intervention in the economy sometimes occur but are undesirable exceptions. o In China's state-led market economy, the government establishes targets for growth, picks and subsidies industries to develop, promotes national champions, and undertakes significant, long-term economic projects to advance the interests of the nation. o Chinese culture does not celebrate American-style individualism, which measures society by how well it protects the rights and fosters the freedom of individuals.

What are some regional balances of power that Bremmer discusses, and how do they comport with the approach discussed in this chapter?

o The best way to manage our cost is to stop trying to police every neighborhood. Instead, Washington should build and support regional balances of power. o In Asia, the US should pursue a strategic balance to China by strengthening security and economic ties with China's neighbors-particularly Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippians-to allow the countries to not become economically dependent on Beijing. The US could also strengthen trade and investment ties with China-to ensure that Americans continue to benefit from China's rise. o Let Europe lead with Russia. o Maintain open and constructive relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. o The US should help bolster the security of Israel, the only reliable US ally in the region, but Washington need not back every Israeli action against the Palestinians.

US-India Trade

o The current trade in goods was about $68 billion in 2016, with a trade deficit of about $24 billion for US; goal is for $500 billion in total trade by 2024 o Trade in services for 2013 was $32.5 billion with a US deficit of $5.5 billion o US exports: precious stones, machinery, aircraft, medical equipment, fertilizer, and ag products o US imports: jewelry, apparel, textiles, pharmaceuticals o Services: India: outsourcing by American companies; US: tourism and education o FDI (2012): US in India: $28 billion; India in US: $5.2 billion

How have economic relations been addressed? How successful?

o The economic discussion proved more challenging. o Trump's withdrawal from the TPP was disheartening for Japanese officials, who had worked hard for the agreement. They also realized that the trade numbers that mattered most to Trump did not look good (Cars). o In order to disengage Trump for such matters, Tokyo proposed an economic dialogue headed by Japan's deputy prime minister and US Vice President Mike Pence.

According to Sky, what should be the policy of the United States toward Iraq? Why, and in what ways, should American policy move beyond counterterrorism?

o The importance of US military support in the fight against ISIS, and it should take care not to squander it. o This would entail sustained support for Iraqi institutions and a greater commitment to pushing back against Iranian expansionism, which is in itself one of the factors that rallies Sunni extremists. o The US should prioritize providing security assistance to the security forces and intelligence services that have proved themselves in the rollback of ISIS. o The US should also help build the capacity of Iraqi battalions to control the western desert between Iraq and Syria and help bolster Iraq intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities.

How will multilateral cooperation between the US and Asia-Pacific countries play a role in shaping policy decisions? How do multilateral relationships in Asia differ from those in Europe?

o The importance of multilateral cooperation is emphasized because when addressing complex transnational challenges of the sort now faced by Asia requires a set of institutions and interactions between multiple countries capable of mustering collective action. o Such relationships in Asia differ from those in Europe because they still want America to be an engaged and creative partner in the region's flourishing trade and financial interactions.

How has Japan started to "think beyond Trump management" in its foreign policy options and actions? What are some of these new options?

o The limits of Tokyo's Trump management are starting to become clear and as such, Japan has begun to think beyond Trump management. o This means reconsidering both how Japan can strengthen its own defense capabilities and how it can expand its policy portfolio and thereby help bolster international institutions. o Some new options include moves to enhance Japan's defense capabilities, consider acquiring counterattack capabilities, including cruise missiles, and contending not only with Washington's withdrawal from the TPP but also with larger questions of regional economic order.

In accord with the moneyball approach, what are some "bad reasons to fight"?

o The money ball approach suggests that no leader or lawmaker should ever treat a decision about war solely as a test of personal or national toughness or "projecting strength". o We shouldn't go to war because the American people are angry. o We shouldn't go to war to appear resolute. o We should never go to war to defend a principle.

How have security relations between the U.S. and Japan been handled? Have they been successful?

o The security discussion progressed more quickly and successfully than expected. o The US Secretary of Defense called for the maintenance of US forces in Japan a "model of cost-sharing" and hailed Japan's efforts to increase defense spending. o He emphasized the enduring value of the US-Japanese alliance and confirmed that the US would continue to back Japanese administration of the contested Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, explicitly affirming that Washington considers the islands to be covered by Article 5 of the US-Japanese security treaty, which commits the US to defend Japanese territories against attack. o So far, Trump has not undercut his Secretary of Defense.

What are some factors that require a closer U.S.-India relationship in the security and economic areas?

o The shared goals of India and the US do not always translate into shared approached. o Part of the problem is that Washington has no template for a close defense relationship outside of the obligations inherent in a formal alliance. o To facilitate advanced defense cooperation the US should frame its relationship with India differently, conceiving of it more as a joint venture in business than a traditional alliance. o That would mean insulating shared initiatives from areas of disagreement, such as policy toward Iran or ties with Russia. o On economics, too, Washington at times differs sharply with New Delhi, but there is still ample room for progress on the economic relationship. o The US can and should do a better job of including India in international networks conductive to economic growth and job creation.

Shanghai Communique

o Three communiques that shape the US-China relations: - Shanghai Communique - Normalization of Relations (1979): One-China policy - The Joint Communique o Structure of Shanghai Communique - Competing views of the world - "Anti-hegemony Clause": One state doesn't dominate the other (US and Soviet) - Agreement on a One-China policy: doesn't make clear which government is dominate - Opening ties and commitment to normalize relations: Did not establish diplomatic relations between US and China í lesion office. o Problems of Normalizations - Chinese demands - US demands o Antagonistic view of one another

What does Allison mean by the "Thucydides' trap"? What factors make that trap more likely for the United States and China?

o Thucydides Trap refers to the Greek historian who suggested that a rising power (China) causes fear in an established power (US) which escalates toward war. o In this case, Thucydidean risks are compounded by civilizational incompatibility between the two countries, which exacerbates their competition and makes it more difficult to achieve rapprochement.

How sound is U.S. intelligence regarding North Korea? What is the responsibility of military officers to political leaders?

o Today, US intelligence finds itself once again in the dark. It does not know the status of North Korea's warheads or the location of its missiles. o The military leader's responsibility is to offer brutal honesty to political leaders and the public. When it comes to North Korea, that means admitting that there are no military options that do not risk starting the most destructive war since 1945.

How has the American leadership made "reckless threats" against North Korea? What does Sagan believe that "all options on the table" is reckless and dangerous?

o Trump's rhetoric on answering NK threats with nuclear force has been a key factor in American leadership making reckless threats to NK and has broken sharply from the US deterrence policy. o Sagan believes that while "all options on the table" sounds less threatening, from NK perspective the statement implies that the US is contemplating launching a nuclear first strike which is dangerous.

US Relations with Iraq: Three Important UN Resolutions

o UN Security Council Resolution 678 (Nov. 1990) "to use all necessary means to uphold" earlier resolutions on Kuwait o UN Security Council Resolution 687 (April 1991)-ending the war and imposing sanctions on Iraq, including nuclear restrictions o UN Security Council Resolution 688 (April 1991)-Kurdish and Shiite oppression-led to "no-fly zones" in Iraq

Currency Issue Between US and China

o US Charge: China manipulates currency at a particular level; pegged against US dollar within narrow trading range, not market forces dominating - Makes Chinese goods more attractive, hurts US exports, enlarges trade deficit with US o Devaluation of Chinese yuan as economy slowed; hurt US and other exporters, not too fast because capital flight from China - Can exaggerate the degree to which this debt matters bc China might get raw material from US. Not as robust as looking at raw numbers. o China moved to have currency to be a reserve currency -> failed

Japan and Korea Issues

o US and Japan are as one -> no willingness to allow a nuclear North Korea o North Korea, nuclear weapons, and Six-Party Talks; strongly supportive of UN sanctions; opposed to any American accommodation on a nuclear North Korea o South Korea-historical rivalry; island dispute; fear of North Korea -> "comfort women" soured relations too. o Japan has nuclear pacifism bc of WWII -> do not want o One US position is to reassure Japan the US will come to their defense -> do not let Japanese go nuclear bc location next to China and given the historical background to have them get nuclear weapons would be destabilizing to Asia. o US wants things with Korea solved diplomatically.

Okinawa

o US controlled Okinawa after WWII until 1972 American colony -> transferred sovereignty back to Japan -> still base access o Most American forces on Okinawa; heavily populated and issues with personnel - Fear there will be an accident - Magnitude of US presence - too many people - Location of US presence - too close to civilians - Actions of US personnel -sexual assaults o Okinawa has always been a source of contention o Move Futenma Marine Air Station to acceptable site; move 8,000 personnel to Guam o Still unresolved

US Military Commitments in Japan

o US force in Japan matches that of Europe o Largest deployment in Asia with 50,000 military personnel plus 5,000 American civilians - Every US president has chosen to re-in state security commitment to Japan o Five bases on the main land o Numerous bases, stations, and camps on Okinawa o 65% of the American military personnel are on Okinawa o 2015 US-Japan Defense Guidelines; five-year pact in 2016. - Japan will give money for security burden sharing -> 1.6 Billion

What should be the constant message that the United States send to the Kim regime? What are some of the specific actions that Sagan suggest for making his deterrence option effective?

o US policy should aim to convince Kim that starting a war would lead to an unmitigated disaster for North Korea, especially as his own ministers and military advisers may be too frightened of his wrath to make that argument themselves. o The US should state clearly and calmly that any attack by North Korea would lead to the swift and violent end of the Kim regime. o The more difficult challenge will be convincing Kim that the US will not attack him first. This will require an end to US threats of first-strike regime change. o The US should continue to extend its nuclear umbrella to South Korea to reduce the incentive for Seoul to acquire its own nuclear arsenal. The best option being keeping nuclear-capable bombers at Guam on ground alert. o Sagan suggest that Kennan's strategy of containment and deterrence will continue to work on North Korea. o The US must wait with patience and vigilance until the Kim regime collapses under the weight of its own economic and political weakness.

US-India Relations: Political and Economic Links

o US-India common economic relations through the sea lanes of the Indian Ocean o US-India share concerns about fighting terrorism after November 2008 and Mumbai attacks o United States-India Peaceful Atomic Cooperation Act of 2006 o US-India Trade Policy Forum from 2005 o Strategic and Commercial Dialogue and Economic and Financial Partnership Dialogue

Does Allison believe that there is likely to be a "clash of civilizations" between China and the United States?

o Yes, Allison suggests that the coming decades will only strengthen the tensions between the US "Western Civilization" and most Asian societies because they are directly at odds with one another. o Tensions between American and Chinese values, traditions, and philosophies will aggravate the fundamental structure stresses that occur whenever a rising power, such as China, threatens to displace an established power, such as the United States.