BANA II FINAL

what would be the coefficient of determination if the total sum of squares (SST) is 115 and the sum of squares due to error (SSE) is 59

=115-59, so 56 then 56/115 which= .49

if the forecasted value of the time series variable for period 2 is 23.9 and the actual value observed for period 2 is 21.5, what is the forecasted error in period 2?

=21.5-23.9, so -2.4

to include education in a regression model where education is defined by a categorical variable with 5 different levels, the number of dummy variables required is?

=5-1, so 4

Solving nonlinear problems with local optimal solutions is performed using blank, in Excel Solver, which is based on more classical optimization techniques.

GRG Nonlinear

Which of the following is true about Bayes' theorem?

It enables the use of sample information to revise prior probabilities.

the linear program that results from dropping the integer requirements for the variables in an integer linear program is known as blank

LP relaxation

Which of the following is a second way of formulating the Markowitz model?

Maximize the expected return of the portfolio subject to a constraint on variance.

Resorts & Spas, a magazine devoted to upscale vacations and accommodations, published its Reader's Choice List of the top 20 independent beachfront boutique hotels in the world. The data in the file above are the scores received by these hotels based on the results from Resorts & Spas' annual Readers' Choice Survey. Each score represents the percentage of respondents who rated a hotel as excellent or very good on one of three criteria (comfort, amenities, and in-house dining). An overall score was also reported and used to rank the hotels. DETERMINE THE ESTIMATED MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATION that can be used to predict the overall score given the scores for comfort, amenities, and in-house dining. Be sure that all of your coefficients are significant. If not, make the appropriate adjustments, then predict the overall score for Comfort of 88.5, Amenities of 91.9 and In-House Dining of 92.4

Step 1: click data, then data analysis, then regression step 2: y=overall column and x=comfort, amenities, and in house dining step 3: p value for comfort is very high so it is not going to be significant step 4: take comfort out of the model step 5: repeat step 1 step 6: keep y=overall and change x=amenities and in house dining step 6: =sumproduct(coeffiecients, overall scores) **in excel**

An uncertain future event affecting the consequence associated with a decision is known as which of the following?

a chance event

A feasible solution is blank if there are no other feasible points with a better objective function value in the entire feasible region.

a global optimum

If there are no other feasible solutions with a larger objective function value in the immediate neighborhood, then the feasible solution is known as blank.

a local maximum

A measure of the outcome of a decision such as profit, cost, or time is known as which of the following?

a payoff

Which of the following is a decision maker who would choose a guaranteed payoff over a lottery with a better expected payoff?

a risk avoider

a scenario in which the optimal objective function contour line coincides with one of the following constraint lines on the boundary of the feasible region leads to blank solutions

alternative optimal

blank is used to test the hypothesis that the values of the regression parameters 𝛽1, 𝛽2, ... 𝛽q are all zero.

an F test

Which of the following refers to the result obtained when a decision alternative is chosen and a chance event occurs?

an outcome

In a nonlinear optimization problem, blank

at least one term in the objective function or a constraint is nonlinear.

in a production application involving a fixed set up cost and a variable cost, the use of which of the following makes including the set up cost possible in a production model?

binary variables

a blank refers to a constraint that can be expressed as an equality at the optimal solution

binding constraint

in order to visualize three variables in a two dimensional graph, we use a blank

bubble chart

In the Bass forecasting model, parameter m blank.

coefficient of imitation

In the Bass forecasting model, the blank measures the likelihood of adoption, assuming no influence from someone who has already purchased (adopted) the product.

coefficient of innovation

The states of nature are defined so that they are which of the following, meaning that at least one state of nature must occur at a given time for a chance event?

collectively exhaustive

The probability of one event given the known outcome of a (possibly) related event is known as blank probability.

conditional

in a linear regression model, the variable that is being predicted or explained is known as blank. It is denoted by y and is often referred to as the response variable

dependent variable

blank analytics are analytical tools that describe what has happened

descriptive

A(n) blank is a set of points defining the minimum possible risk for a set of return values.

efficient frontier

the calculations of a cell can be investigated in great detail by using the blank button

evaluate formula

The weighted average of the payoffs for a chance node is known as which of the following?

expected value

which of the following is true of the relationship between the value of the optimal integer solution and the value of the optimal solution to the LP relaxation?

for integer linear programs involving maximization, the value of the optimal solution to the LP relaxation provides an upper bound on the value of the optimal integer solution

a two dimensional graph representing the data using different shades of color to indicate magnitude is called a blank

heat map

the moving average forecasting method is appropriate for a time series exhibiting blank

horizontal pattern

which of the following is true about generating alternatives in binary optimization?

if the second-best solution is very close to optimal, it may be preferred over the true optimal solution because of factors outside of the model

blank is the situation in which no solution to the linear programming problem satisfies all the constraints

infeasibility

A global minimum blank.

is also a local minimum

The ratio of the amount of ink used in a table or chart that is necessary to convey information to the total amount of ink used in the table and chart is known as data-ink ratio. Using additional ink that is not necessary to convey information has what effect on the data-ink ratio?

it reduces the data-ink ratio

which of the following is true of the shadow price of non binding constraints?

it will always be zero

The Sea Wharf Restaurant would like to determine the best way to allocate a monthly advertising budget of $4,000 between newspaper advertising and radio advertising. Management decided that at least 25% of the budget must be spent on each type of media and that the amount of money spent on local newspaper advertising must be at least twice the amount spent on radio advertising. A marketing consultant developed an index that measures audience exposure per dollar of advertising on a scale from 0 to 100, with higher values implying greater audience exposure. If the value of the index for local newspaper advertising is 50 and the value of the index for spot radio advertising is 70, how should the restaurant allocate its advertising budget to maximize the value of total audience exposure? Formulate a linear programming model that can be used to determine how the restaurant should allocate its advertising budget in order to maximize the value of total audience exposure. (Assume N is the amount spent on newspaper advertising and R is the amount spent on radio advertising.)

max: 50N+70R budget: N+R<= 4,000 minimum newspaper spending: N=> (4,000*.25) so 1,000 minimum radio spending: R=> (4,000*.25) so 1,000 comparison radio and newspaper spending: N=>2R

One of the ways to formulate the Markowitz model is to blank.

minimize the variance of the portfolio subject to a constraint on the expected return of the portfolio

The utility function for money is a curve that depicts the relationship between which of the following?

monetary value and utility

a blank uses repeated random sampling to represent uncertainty in a model representing a real system and that computes the values of model outputs

monte carlo simulation

blank refers to the degree of correlation among independent variables in a regression model

multicollinearity

The blank option in Excel Solver is helpful when the solution to a problem appears to depend on the starting values for the decision variables.

multistart

No more than one state of nature can occur at a given time for a chance event. This indicates that the states of nature are defined such that they are which of the following?

mutually exclusive

The blank of a solution is a mathematical concept that refers to the set of points within a relatively close proximity of the solution.

neighborhood

The minimax regret approach is which of the following?

neither purely optimistic nor purely conservative

the term blank refers to the expression that defines the quantity to be maximized or minimized in a linear programming model

objective function

The amount of loss (lower profit or higher cost) from not making the best decision for each state of nature is known as which of the following?

opportunity loss

A special case of sample information where the information tells the decision maker exactly which state of nature is going to occur is known as which of the following?

perfect information

making visual comparisons between categorical variables may be difficult in a blank

pie chart

Which of the following refer to the probabilities of the states of nature after revising the prior probabilities based on sample information?

posterior probabilities

blank analytics are techniques that use models, constructed from past data, to predict the future or to ascertain the impact of one variable on another

predictive

blank analytics use techniques that take input data and yield a best course of action

prescriptive

A blank is the shadow price of a binding simple lower or upper bound on the decision variable.

reduced gradient

what is the difference between the observed value of the dependent variable and the value predicted using the estimated regression equation?

residual

constraints are blank

restrictions that limit the settings of the decision variables

Exponential utility functions assume that the decision maker is which of the following?

risk averse

New information obtained through research or experimentation that enables an updating or revision of the state-of-nature probabilities is known as which of the following?

sample information

The study of how changes in the probability assessments for the states of nature or changes in the payoffs affect the recommended decision alternative is known as which of the following?

sensitivity analysis

the importance of blank for integer linear programming problems if often intensified by the fact that a small change in one of the coefficients in the constraints can cause a relatively large change in the value of the optimal solution

sensitivity analysis

which of the following design guidelines, if followed, enables the user to update the model parameters without the risk of mistakenly creating an error in a formula?

separating the parameters from the spreadsheet model

The Lagrangian multiplier is the blank for a constraint in a nonlinear problem.

shadow price

the change in the optimal objective function value per unit increase in the right hand side of a constraint is given by the blank

shadow price

a line chart that has no axes but is used to provide information on overall trends for time series data is called a blank

sparkline

the least squares regression line minimizes the sum of the blank

squared differences between actual and predicted y values

Which of the following are possible outcomes for chance events that affect the consequences associated with a decision alternative?

states of nature

Cox Electric makes electronic components and has estimated the following for a new design of one of its products. Fixed Cost = $14,000 Material Cost per Unit = $0.16 Labor Cost per Unit = $0.14 Revenue per Unit = $0.64 Note that fixed cost is incurred regardless of the amount produced. Per-unit material and labor cost together make up the variable cost per unit. Assuming that Cox Electric sells all that it produces, profit is calculated by subtracting the fixed cost and total variable cost from total revenue.If Cox Electric makes 47,200 units of the new product, what is the resulting profit (in whole dollars)?

step 1: (.64*47,200)-14,000-47,200*(.16+.14)=2,048

you have completed 1000 simulation trials, and determined that the average profit was $6.67 with a sample standard deviation of 1.98. what is the upper limit for an 87% confidence interval for the average profit per unit?

step 1: 1-.87= .13 step 2: margin of error=confidence.t(.13,1.98,1000)=.0949 step 3: margin of error(.0949) + 6.67 = 6.76

using exponential smoothing, the forecast for September shipments was 341 units. the actual September shipments were 339. using and alpha(smoothing constant) of .19, the forecast for October is ?

step 1: 339-341=-2 step 2: -2*.2=-.4 step 3: 341+-.4=340.6

the weekly demand for an item in a retail store is follows a uniform distribution over the range 70 to 80. what would be the weekly demand if its corresponding computer-generated random number is .1?

step 1: 80-70=10 step 2: 10*.1=1 step 3: 70+1=71

Because of high tuition costs at state and private universities, enrollments at community colleges have increased dramatically in recent years. The attached data show the enrollment for a certain community college for the nine most recent years. Use simple linear regression analysis, with Period as the independent variable, to find the parameters for the line that minimizes MSE for this time series. Forecast the enrollment for Period 12. Round your answer to one decimal place.

step 1: create a regression model step 2: y=enrollment and x=period step 3: =sumproduct(coefficients,values) **in excel**

Jensen Tire & Auto is deciding whether to purchase a maintenance contract for its new computer wheel alignment and balancing machine. Managers feel that maintenance expense should be related to usage, and they collected the following information on weekly usage (hours) and annual maintenance expense (in hundreds of dollars). Use the data to develop an ESTIMATED REGRESSION EQUATION that could be used to predict the annual maintenance expense in hundreds of dollars (y) for a given number of hours of weekly usage (x). Using the estimated regression equation if the weekly usage is 13, what is the estimated annual maintenance expense in hundreds of dollars?

step 1: create a regression model step 2: y=expense and x=usage step 3: =sumproduct(coefficients, values) **in excel**

Home Depot, a home-improvement retailer, sells several brands of washing machines. The attached file contains a sample of 24 models of full-size washing machines sold by Home Depot in 2016, with each observation recording the washing machine capacity (in cubic feet) and the list price (in $). Build a QUADRATIC REGRESSION MODEL to predict price using washing machine capacity. Using your regression equation what is the predicted price for a washing machine capacity of 4.9?

step 1: insert column b/w capacity and list price for capacity^2 step 2: create regression model step 3: y=list price and x=capacity and capacity^2 step 4: =sumproduct(coefficients, values) **in excel**

The Westchester Chamber of Commerce periodically sponsors public service seminars and programs. Currently, promotional plans are under way for this year's program. Advertising alternatives include television, radio, and online. Audience estimates, costs, and maximum media usage limitations are as shown in the attached spreadsheet. To ensure a balanced use of advertising media, radio advertisements must not exceed 50% of the total number of advertisements authorized. In addition, television should account for at least 10% of the total number of advertisements authorized. Using the attached file and a promotional budget of $22,800 and solving this as a linear program, determine the number of commercial messages that should be run on each medium to maximize total audience contact. By how much would audience contact increase if an extra $50 were allocated to the promotional budget?

step 1: put 22,800 in budget step 2: use solver and calculate a sensitivity sheet step 3: once you have that, use spend messages shadow price and multiple it by 50 step 4: that calculation is the answer

Grear Tire Company has produced a new tire with an estimated mean lifetime mileage of 38,500 miles. Management also believes that the standard deviation is 5,000 miles and that tire mileage is normally distributed. To promote the new tire, Grear has offered to refund some money if the tire fails to reach 30,000 miles before the tire needs to be replaced. Specifically, for tires with a lifetime below 30,000 miles, Grear will refund a customer $1 per 100 miles short of 30,000. Use the attached spreadsheet and add the formula to determine Lifetime mileage. Use 1000 simulation trials. What is the average cost? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

step 1: put 38,500 for mean in lifetime mileage box step 2: under parameters for lifetime mileage put =norm.inv(rand(),mean,sd) step 3: steps above should automatically calculate the average **in excel**

King City Inc. manufactures machine tools. The production planner who oversees the production of two of King City's machines needs to determine exactly how many of each to produce this month. The two machines, TopLathe and BigPress, each require a certain common component. Each TopLathe requires 10 of these components and each BigPress requires 7. Only 72 components are available this month. The sales department requires that the total number of machines produced in a month must be at least 5 (the number TopLathes plus the number BigPresses must be at least 5). All machines started in the month must be completed so there are no partially complete machines. The profit for a TopLathe is $50,000 and $34,000 for a BigPress. Use the attached file, update the Available Components and add any required constraints to determine the optimal profit and the optimal number of TopLathes and BigPresses?

step 1: put in 72 as the available component step 2: use solver step 3: a. set objective to total profit b. by changing variable cells of numbers to produce for both toplathe and bigpress c. with subject to the constraints of numbers to produce for toplathe and bigpress = integer, total units under number to produce=>total unit required, and total number of components <= components available step 4: hit solve **in excel**

The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be 54 dollars per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are included in the attached spreadsheet. Using this spreadsheet, construct a simulation model to estimate the average profit (in $) per unit. (Use 1,000 trials. Round your answer to two decimal places.)

step 1: put in selling price (of $54) step 2: highlight starting at simulation trial across to column E step 3: go to data ribbon, what if analysis, data table step 4: in column, click on any empty cell step 5: calculate average of profit per unit **in excel**

Eastman Publishing Company is considering publishing an electronic textbook about spreadsheet applications for business. The fixed cost of manuscript preparation, textbook design, and web site construction is estimated to be $164,000. Variable processing costs are estimated to be $6.15 per book.Use Goal Seek to determine the access price per copy (in dollars) that the publisher must charge to earn a profit of $100,000 with a demand of 35,000 copies.

step 1: set up data fixed cost = 164000 variable cost = 6.15 copies produced = 35000 selling price = 1 (place holder) step 2: solve for profit =(1*35000)-164000-(6.15*35000) step 3: use goal seek step 4: in goal seek, set cell=profit box to value=100,000 by changing cell=selling price box, and then click ok step 5: answer is the new selling price **in excel**

the blank function pairs each element of the first array with its counterpart in the second array, multiplies the elements of the pairs together, and adds the results

sumproduct

Choosing a decision alternative that maximizes the minimum profit is a feature of which of the following?

the conservative approach

The parameter R in an exponential utility function represents which of the following?

the decision maker's risk tolerance

the imposition of an integer restriction is necessary for models where blank

the decision variable cannot take fractional values

Which of the following evaluate each decision alternative in terms of the best payoff that can occur?

the optimistic approach

which of the following states the objectives of time series analysis?

to uncover a pattern in a time series and then extrapolate the pattern into the future

using a small value for order k in the moving averages forecasting method is effective in blank

tracking changes in a time series more quickly

the impact of two inputs on the output of interest is summarized by a blank

two-way data table

all the values of computer-generated random numbers are which of the following?

uniformly distributed

Which of the following is a measure of the total worth of a consequence reflecting a decision maker's attitude toward considerations such as profit, loss, and risk?

utility

blank is the process of determining that a simulation model provides an accurate representation of a real system

validation

The measure of risk most often associated with the Markowitz portfolio model is the blank

variance of the portfolios return

If the portfolio variance were equal to zero, the amount of risk would be blank.

zero